How high will Solana get in February?
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing for Solana to go Above $115.00 in February, with model odds at 27.9% compared to the market's 6.0%, suggesting the market significantly underprices this outcome.
1. Executive Verdict
- Ongoing technical upgrades enhance Solana's network security and transaction speed.
- Growing institutional adoption and RWA tokenization drive demand for Solana.
- Solana network shows robust economic activity and increased high-value transactions.
- Solana long-term holders consistently offload supply after recent price drops.
- A significant Solana (SOL) token unlock is scheduled for late February.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $110.00 | 8.0% | 34.0% | Model higher by 26.0pp |
| Above $115.00 | 7.0% | 27.9% | The initial bearish market odds were significantly updated by high-impact (Grade A) evidence of institutional adoption, creating a conflict between this forward-looking fundamental strength and the prevailing short-term technical weakness. |
| Above $120.00 | 6.0% | 22.0% | Model higher by 16.0pp |
| Above $125.00 | 5.0% | 16.2% | The model's posterior probability reflects a significant upward revision, as the high-credibility evidence from robust on-chain volume (Grade A) and persistent institutional inflows (Grade B) quantitatively outweighs the bearish short-term technical indicators (Grade C) and recent profit-taking. |
| Above $135.00 | 5.0% | 8.7% | The model moderately increases the initial low probability by applying a +0.7 log-odds shift, reflecting the conflict between overwhelming short-term bearish indicators and under-weighted, persistent institutional inflows. |
Current Context
Solana experiences bearish sentiment and price pressure in February, with ongoing debates about its short-term potential. As of February 19, 2026, Solana (SOL) has been trading below $82 after being rejected from the $89.38 resistance level earlier in the week, showing a 7.32% decline through February 19 and an approximate 4.76% decrease in the week ending February 15 [^], [^], [^], [^]. It has remained range-bound below $90 for about two weeks, currently at approximately $81 [^], [^], [^]. Key resistance levels being watched are $87, $89, $91.20, $98.78, $100, $120.30, $147, $167, and potentially $200 [^], [^], [^], [^], while critical support levels include $67, $70, $73, $76.45, $78, $80, $84, and $116 [^], [^], [^], [^], [^]. A significant concern is a potential fall to $48 if the $80 support breaks [^]. The overall market sentiment for Solana is bearish, with the Fear & Greed Index showing "Extreme Fear" at a score of 9 [^], [^], [^]. On-chain metrics indicate that investors are beginning to sell at a loss (Spent Output Profit Ratio has ticked higher from the negative zone), and while the Chaikin Money Flow is rising, it remains negative, suggesting declining outflows but not decisive inflows yet [^]. Furthermore, Solana's weekly Decentralized Exchange (DEX) trading volume dropped over 20%, from $95.6 billion to $74.3 billion, in the week ending February 9, coinciding with long-term holders significantly reducing their exposure between February 3 and February 9 [^], [^].
Solana shows ecosystem strength despite mixed expert opinions and market concerns, highlighting a complex outlook. Despite bearish conditions and declining DEX volume, institutional flows provide a contrasting signal, with Solana recording $31 million in inflows for the week ending February 13 [^]. Goldman Sachs has reportedly deepened its commitment, holding $260 million in Solana and XRP funds as of February 19 [^], while WisdomTree has expanded its regulated tokenized funds and Ondo Global Markets has brought over 200 tokenized ETFs and stocks to the platform [^]. The ecosystem itself shows growth, with Real World Assets (RWA) Total Value Locked (TVL) surpassing $1.6 billion, network activity hitting record highs with 148 million daily transactions and over 5 million active addresses as of February 18, and payment volume growing 755% year-over-year [^]. Expert opinions on Solana's price trajectory are mixed; some from Pintu News suggest February has historically been a strong month for Solana (average 38% increase), potentially leading to a test of $147 or $200 if the $116 support holds [^]. Conversely, BeInCrypto highlights significant risk due to DEX volume drops and long-term holder exits [^], [^], [^], and CoinGape forecasts a bearish outlook, suggesting a fall to $50 due to geopolitical risks and technical patterns [^]. Technical indicators from Changelly provide mixed signals, showing a bullish short-term trend (50-day moving average rising) but a weak longer-term trend (200-day moving average falling, daily/weekly charts bearish) [^], with IG Group noting continued relative weakness trapped within a bearish trendline [^], [^]. A contrarian view from The Motley Fool cites Standard Chartered's prediction that Solana could reach $200 this year, $400 next, and $2,000 by 2030, driven by its transformation into a stablecoin-centric network [^]. Technical developments include Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong's announcement of a quantum advisory council, with Solana involved in testing quantum-resistant signatures [^]. Upcoming events include Startup Village Seoul Season 2 (February 22-28, 2026) [^] and Solana Run Club events (February 22, 2026) [^], with the Alpenglow consensus prototype scheduled for public testnet in June and mainnet later in 2026, and the full Firedancer validator client software expected later in 2026, both anticipated to drastically improve transaction processing and network reliability [^], [^]. Common concerns revolve around Solana's price trajectory, its inherent high volatility, vulnerability to broader market downturns, historical network outages (such as one in early February 2025), and questions about decentralization efforts [^], [^], [^], [^]. Geopolitical risks, competition with Ethereum, and reconciling conflicting institutional versus retail sentiment also remain central to discussions [^], [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market, which asks if Solana will reach a peak price above $110.00 in February, shows a decisive and sustained downward trend. The market opened with a high degree of optimism, pricing the probability at 75.0%. However, it has since collapsed to a current price of 9.0%, indicating a dramatic shift in trader sentiment. This decline was punctuated by a series of significant, sharp drops in early February. A cascade of negative events drove the probability down, starting with a 17.0 percentage point drop on February 3, followed by precipitous drops of 22.0pp and 16.0pp on the subsequent two days. A brief but notable 16.0pp spike on February 6 suggested a momentary recovery in confidence, but this was quickly erased, and the downward trend resumed with a 9.0pp drop on February 10.
The primary drivers of this price collapse were a confluence of asset-specific issues and broader market pressures. The initial decline was triggered by a significant Solana network disruption in early February, which coincided with the asset's price falling below the crucial $100 psychological support level. This was immediately compounded by a broader market downturn influenced by global risk-off sentiment and a specific crypto-market correction led by Bitcoin. The short-lived spike on February 6 was attributed to a technical recovery in the asset's price, but it failed to hold. The subsequent drop on February 10 was driven by Solana's inability to reclaim technical resistance levels near $90, solidifying the market's belief that a rally to over $110 was increasingly out of reach.
The chart illustrates a clear shift from bullish conviction to entrenched bearish sentiment. The total traded volume of over 52,000 contracts suggests significant market participation and conviction behind this move. The market probability found some temporary support around the 16% level in mid-February but ultimately failed to hold, establishing the current low near 9%. This pessimistic pricing directly reflects the current market context, where Solana is struggling to trade above $82 and remains firmly rejected from resistance near $90. The prediction market has effectively priced in the low likelihood of a major rally, aligning its sentiment with the challenging technical and fundamental picture for the underlying asset as the month nears its conclusion.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 February 10, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 25.0% to 16.0%
Outcome: Above $110.00
What happened: The 9.0 percentage point drop in Solana's "Above $110.00" prediction market outcome on February 10, 2026, was primarily driven by a sustained bearish trend and Solana's consistent failure to reclaim key technical resistance levels above $90, making the $110 target increasingly improbable [^]. On February 10, Solana (SOL) was trading in the range of $82-$87, representing a multi-day decline that indicated a lack of bullish momentum [^]. Analysts had previously noted that a failure to hold above $116 could lead to further downside, and Solana was significantly below this level by mid-February [^]. Social media activity, such as the January announcement of a "deep integration" between X and Solana, was positive but did not prevent the ongoing price depreciation leading up to and on February 10 [^]. Consequently, social media was mostly noise or irrelevant to this particular price drop [^].
📈 February 06, 2026: 16.0pp spike
Price increased from 18.0% to 34.0%
Outcome: Above $110.00
What happened: The 16.0 percentage point spike in the "Above $110.00" outcome for Solana in the prediction market on February 06, 2026, was primarily driven by the market's strong recovery from a significant daily low, interpreted through pre-existing bullish traditional news and analyst sentiment [^]. On February 6th, Solana's spot price initially dipped to lows around $67-$68 following an earlier network disruption in early February, but it then rebounded substantially to close around $87 [^]. This resilient "buy the dip" market behavior, coinciding with continuous reports of institutional inflows and analysts forecasting Solana to potentially reach targets like $147-$167 in February due to historical seasonal strength, likely fueled increased confidence in the prediction market for reaching $110.00 by month-end [^]. Social media activity, however, showed fading market interest and weakening sentiment around this period, indicating it was not a primary positive driver [^]. Social media was: (c) mostly noise (or even negative) [^].
📉 February 05, 2026: 16.0pp drop
Price decreased from 32.0% to 16.0%
Outcome: Above $110.00
What happened: The 16.0 percentage point drop in Solana's prediction market price on February 5, 2026, was primarily driven by a broader cryptocurrency market downturn, specifically a significant 14% crash in Bitcoin on the same day [^]. This market-wide correction led to a 33% decline in Solana's price between January 30 and February 6, reflecting a general risk-off sentiment and increased correlation among crypto assets [^]. Solana had already failed to hold above the $100-$102 resistance, falling through key support levels, which was noted in daily market updates [^]. While social media sentiment for Solana was declining around early February, there were no specific viral posts from key figures identified as a direct, leading cause of this sharp price movement [^]. Therefore, social media was mostly noise, reflecting existing sentiment rather than acting as a primary driver [^].
📉 February 04, 2026: 22.0pp drop
Price decreased from 54.0% to 32.0%
Outcome: Above $110.00
What happened: The primary driver of the 22.0 percentage point drop in the "Above $110.00" prediction market outcome for Solana on February 4, 2026, was a broader market downturn influenced by global risk aversion, including tech layoffs and AI revenue fears, which had already pushed Solana to multi-year lows around $100.30 by February 1, 2026 [^]. This was compounded by Standard Chartered lowering its short-term price forecast for Solana on February 3, 2026, at a time when SOL was trading at $101 [^]. Social media activity, such as posts by Ali Charts and Pepesso on February 4, 2026, describing Solana's price nearing the $100-$105 range, primarily coincided with and reported on the ongoing price movement rather than initiating it [^]. Consequently, social media was mostly noise, reflecting existing market sentiment and price action rather than serving as the primary driver of this particular prediction market movement [^].
📉 February 03, 2026: 17.0pp drop
Price decreased from 75.0% to 58.0%
Outcome: Above $110.00
What happened: The primary driver of the 17.0 percentage point drop in Solana's prediction market price on February 3, 2026, was a significant network disruption in early February that coincided with the asset falling below the crucial $100 support level [^]. A network outage on February 4, 2026, which temporarily halted block production and rerouted connectivity across the continental US, as reported by "DoubleZero," severely impacted user confidence and developer activity, leading to a rapid cooling of social and trading sentiment [^]. This event triggered substantial liquidations of long positions, accelerating the price decline [^]. Therefore, social media acted as a primary driver by rapidly disseminating information about the network issues, exacerbating the negative market reaction [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
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Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $110.00 | $0.08 | $0.93 | 8% |
| Above $115.00 | $0.07 | $0.95 | 7% |
| Above $120.00 | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
| Above $125.00 | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| Above $130.00 | $0.05 | $0.98 | 5% |
| Above $135.00 | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| Above $140.00 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 5% |
| Above $145.00 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 5% |
Market Discussion
Discussions and debates around "How high will Solana get in February?" in 2026 highlighted a struggle between short-term bearish pressures and underlying long-term bullish sentiment [^]. While early February saw a sharp rebound from lows around $67, many analysts debated Solana's ability to reclaim the $100 mark, with strong resistance consistently noted around the $90-$95 range and potential downside towards $70 or even $50 if critical support levels failed [^]. This cautious outlook was driven by mixed technical signals, a prevalence of short positions in derivatives markets, decreasing social dominance, and broader macroeconomic concerns affecting risk appetite [^]. Conversely, some optimistic viewpoints, supported by long-term fundamental improvements, institutional interest, and expectations from technical upgrades like Firedancer, suggested targets of $150-$180 for early 2026 and significantly higher for the year as a whole, despite the immediate market indecision [^].
5. What Solana Capital Flows Signal Price Direction Post-$85 Drop?
| Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL) AUM | $104.91 million as of February 17, 2026 |
|---|---|
| 21Shares Solana ETF (TSOL) Single-Day Outflow | $34.31 million around November 27, 2025 |
| Long-Term Holder (LTH) Solana Flow | Consistent net daily outflow since October 2024 |
Solana Long-Term Holders are consistently offloading supply since the price drop. Since Solana's price fell below $85, wallets identified as Long-Term Holders (holding SOL for over one year) have shown a consistent net daily outflow since October 2024. This sustained distribution marks a shift from prior accumulation, likely reflecting profit realization from earlier rallies to approximately $250 or strategic de-risking amid market uncertainty. This ongoing selling pressure from a core holder base presents a significant headwind against price recovery efforts.
Institutional capital flows show a mixed but potentially strong demand. Institutional capital flows present a more complex scenario. The Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL) has demonstrated steady demand since its conversion, accumulating a historical total net inflow of $77.83 million by late November 2025 and increasing its Assets Under Management (AUM) to $104.91 million as of February 17, 2026. In contrast, other global ETPs, such as the 21Shares Solana ETF (TSOL), experienced a notable $34.31 million single-session withdrawal around November 27, 2025, which pushed their cumulative flow into a net negative.
A market dynamic exists between long-term holders selling and institutional varied demand. This divergence highlights a central dynamic in Solana's current market: a conflict between established Long-Term Holders offloading supply and institutional investors providing varied, yet potentially robust, demand through ETPs. The capacity for sustained institutional inflows, particularly from products like GSOL, to absorb the continuous supply from LTH distribution will be crucial for Solana to establish a stable price floor and resume an uptrend in the near term.
6. What Do Solana's Liquidation Clusters Signal for Price Action?
| Upper Short Liquidation Zone | $275 million in $89.00-$91.50 range (Feb 20, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Lower Long Liquidation Zone | $95 million in $78.00-$80.00 range (Feb 20, 2026) [^] |
| Recent Liquidation Bias | Long liquidations exceeded $19M vs $8M shorts (Feb 17-18, 2026) [^], [^] |
Solana's futures market shows larger liquidation clusters above the current price. Derivatives data from February 20, 2026, indicates a substantially larger concentration of potential liquidations above the current price compared to below it. A dense cluster of short liquidations is identified in the $89.00-$91.50 price range, totaling approximately $275 million, with a critical level at $90.80 holding an estimated $110 million in short liquidation orders. In contrast, the lower liquidation zone, concentrated in the $78.00-$80.00 support area, holds a comparatively smaller value of approximately $95 million in long liquidations.
Consistent long liquidation suggests a strong potential for a short squeeze. This market structure indicates a high likelihood of a short squeeze if SOL's price breaches the upper resistance, as the forced closure of short positions would generate significant market buy orders, driving rapid price appreciation. This outlook is supported by recent market trends showing consistent cleansing of long-side leverage; over the past 72 hours (February 17-18, 2026), long liquidations significantly outweighed short liquidations, totaling over $19 million in longs versus approximately $8 million in shorts [^], [^]. A more extreme event on January 19, 2026, saw $59.51 million in SOL long positions liquidated, underscoring a market that has systematically flushed out over-leveraged longs [^], [^].
Derivatives data points to a high likelihood of an upside price move. Consequently, the data suggests a "pain trade" for crowded shorts, which could propel the price to the $98-$102 range or even $110-$115 by month-end, should the $89-$91 short liquidation zone be triggered. While less favored by the current liquidation distribution, a breakdown below the $78-$80 long liquidation cluster remains a downside risk, potentially capping the monthly high.
7. Is Solana's Economic Activity Signaling a Higher February Price Peak?
| High-Value Wallet Increase | 8.5% increase (Feb 15-19, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| RWA Sector TVL | $1.66 billion by February 18th, 2026 [^] |
| Institutional Weekly Inflows | $31 million by February 18th, 2026 [^] |
Solana's network displayed robust economic activity, with increased high-value transactions. Between February 15th and 19th, 2026, unique wallets executing transactions valued over $10,000 rose by an estimated 8.5% [^]. This on-chain trend was complemented by significant off-chain institutional interest, as Solana-focused products attracted $31 million in weekly inflows by February 18th [^].
Real-World Asset sector on Solana significantly expanded since February 15th. Total Value Locked (TVL) in RWA protocols reached $1.66 billion by February 18th [^], marking a cumulative increase of approximately $85 million across the top protocols. The network's foundational strength, evidenced by over 5 million active addresses by February 18th [^], underpins this economic growth.
Sustained positive indicators suggest a bullish outlook for SOL. The observed activity reflects deep, structural adoption and utility, indicating potential for further price appreciation before month-end [^].
8. What Solana (SOL) Token Unlocks Are Expected in February 2026?
| Major Unlock Event | 625,000 SOL on February 28, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Ongoing Vesting Supply | Approximately 19 million SOL until 2028 [^] |
| Circulating Supply Impact | 0.135% of current circulating supply from major unlock [^] |
A significant SOL unlock is scheduled for late February 2026. The most substantial verifiable Solana (SOL) token unlock for February 2026 involves 625,000 SOL from a single locked stake account on February 28, 2026 [^]. This particular event constitutes approximately 0.135% of the current circulating supply. In a broader context, Solana also manages an ongoing linear unlock schedule, which will introduce roughly 19 million SOL from early funding and foundation allocations into the market through 2028, providing a predictable supply [^].
Market impact from large unlocks is often mitigated by several factors. While the 625,000 SOL unlock represents a considerable notional value, its negative market impact is not assured, as sophisticated participants likely price in such events. Potential recipients, possibly ecosystem-aligned entities like validators, have various options including re-staking, engaging in DeFi protocols, pursuing over-the-counter (OTC) sales, or simply holding the tokens, which could alleviate immediate selling pressure on public exchanges [^]. The frequently cited ~$870 million unlock figure for February 2026 likely encompasses this specific cliff event along with other ongoing vesting schedules from venture capital and foundation allocations [^].
9. What do Solana and Ethereum options reveal about market sentiment?
| Ethereum ATM Implied Volatility (Feb 2026) | 69.85% [^] |
|---|---|
| Solana ATM Implied Volatility (Feb 27, 2026) | 77.3% [^] |
| Ethereum 25-Delta Risk Reversal (Feb 2026) | -7.67% [^] |
Solana and Ethereum options display negative implied volatility smiles. Both Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH) options expiring in February 2026 exhibit negatively skewed implied volatility (IV) smiles, reflecting a prevailing market preference for downside protection [^]. Ethereum's At-the-Money (ATM) IV stands at 69.85% [^], while Solana's ATM IV is higher at 77.3% for the February 27th expiry [^]. Solana's elevated IV suggests an expectation of greater future volatility, aligning with its historically higher beta [^].
A significant 'fear premium' drives downside demand for both cryptocurrencies. A notable 'fear premium' is evident, with Ethereum's 25-delta Risk Reversal for the February 2026 expiry recorded at -7.67%, signaling robust demand for puts relative to calls [^]. Solana similarly exhibits a bearish skew, which is potentially amplified due to its classification as a higher-risk asset; its Out-of-the-Money (OTM) puts consistently show higher IV than OTM calls across various tenors [^]. This collective pricing behavior indicates active concerns among traders about potential significant price declines for both assets [^].
Deep negative skew counters bullish forecasts, indicating hedging pressure. This market sentiment, characterized by a pronounced negative skew, challenges purely bullish price projections by implying a potential limitation on upside gains and significant hedging activity [^]. Furthermore, the anticipated mid-February 2026 launch of Solana options on the CME could influence its volatility surface. This event might initially boost demand for hedging instruments, potentially exacerbating the already elevated IV and skew observed for SOL as market participants adjust their positions [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Several catalysts could propel Solana's price higher. Ongoing technical upgrades, such as the Alpenglow consensus protocol in early 2026, aim to significantly reduce transaction finalization times and enhance network security. Further progress on the Firedancer validator client, expected later in 2026, could enable 1 million transactions per second and eliminate network outages. Additionally, growing institutional adoption and Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization are key drivers, highlighted by Matrixdock bringing Asia's largest tokenized gold product, XAUm, to Solana on February 10, 2026 [^], and the expansion of WisdomTree and Ondo Global Markets offering regulated tokenized funds and ETFs. A partnership with Fireblocks also strengthens institutional infrastructure, with Solana Accelerate at Consensus Hong Kong (February 10-12, 2026) potentially fostering new partnerships [^]. Ecosystem activity, including a 34% increase in transaction throughput in mid-February, upcoming airdrops from projects like Jupiter and Arcium [^], and the Solana Graveyard Hackathon (February 12-27, 2026) [^], are boosting engagement. A significantly negative funding rate also suggests a potential short squeeze for SOL.
Conversely, a broader crypto market downturn and macroeconomic headwinds present significant bearish catalysts. The crypto market entered bear territory in early February 2026, with over $250 billion exiting spot markets, fueled by risk-off sentiment. A hawkish Federal Reserve, potentially led by Kevin Warsh, could lead to slower interest rate cuts, impacting risk assets. US economic data, including labor market trends, did not show a significant slowdown in February, strengthening the USD and reducing crypto's appeal, while rising CPI inflation could further reduce discretionary spending. Solana's recent price performance also indicates weakness, with a steep downward trend in mid-February, falling below key support levels and forming a bearish pennant pattern [^]. Technical analysts predict a potential drop to $50 if the $80 support fails, referencing a 'head and shoulders' pattern, and Solana underperformed Bitcoin by 90 basis points around February 18, 2026 [^]. Furthermore, Ethereum's weakness, if it breaks key support, could trigger a deeper altcoin downturn, and the broader crypto market's lack of a strong narrative leaves it highly susceptible to these macroeconomic factors.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 08, 2026
- Closes: March 01, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Several catalysts could propel Solana's price higher.
- Trigger: Ongoing technical upgrades, such as the Alpenglow consensus protocol in early 2026, aim to significantly reduce transaction finalization times and enhance network security.
- Trigger: Further progress on the Firedancer validator client, expected later in 2026, could enable 1 million transactions per second and eliminate network outages.
- Trigger: Additionally, growing institutional adoption and Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization are key drivers, highlighted by Matrixdock bringing Asia's largest tokenized gold product, XAUm, to Solana on February 10, 2026 [^] , and the expansion of WisdomTree and Ondo Global Markets offering regulated tokenized funds and ETFs.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 7 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 6 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXSOLMAXMON-SOL-26JAN31-175: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
- KXSOLMAXMON-SOL-26JAN31-170: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
- KXSOLMAXMON-SOL-26JAN31-165: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
- KXSOLMAXMON-SOL-26JAN31-160: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
- KXSOLMAXMON-SOL-26JAN31-155: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
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