How high will Solana get in 2026?

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Solana (SOL) faces substantial supply pressure from major token unlocks through 2026. The FTX estate holds the largest pool of these locked tokens, approximately 41 million SOL, with unlocking commencing in a linear schedule from March 2025 ^{[^]}. Additional scheduled unlocks are anticipated from venture capital firms and the Solana Foundation, though many initial investor vesting periods have already concluded.

FTX's systematic monthly SOL releases are a consistent supply source entering the market. The court-approved liquidation plan for the FTX estate dictates a monthly release of roughly 685,000 SOL ^{[^]}. A significant portion of these tokens has been sold at a discount to institutional buyers, effectively transferring potential sell pressure to this new group of holders ^{[^]}. Beyond FTX, the Solana Foundation anticipates a final large tranche of 5-7 million SOL to unlock in Q3 2026, primarily designated for ecosystem use rather than immediate market sale. Concurrently, strategic VC unlocks are projected to release 3-4 million SOL quarterly in 2026.

On-chain analysis reveals diverse post-unlock wallet behavior patterns within 30 days of vesting events. Typically, within 72 hours of an unlock, an average of 32% of the newly vested tokens are moved to centralized exchange deposit addresses, indicating an intent to realize liquidity ^{[^]}. Another 20-25% of these tokens are routed to OTC desks, which helps to mitigate direct impact on exchange order books. Conversely, 15-20% are re-staked or deployed in decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, suggesting a longer-term bullish perspective from those holders. This observed bifurcated market response indicates that while immediate selling pressure exists, other mechanisms are also absorbing substantial portions of the unlocked supply ^{[^]}.

Solana's DePIN ecosystem demonstrates substantial growth and increasing revenue generation. The Solana Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network (DePIN) ecosystem achieved an on-chain market value of approximately $3.24 billion by June 2025, contributing to a global DePIN market that exceeded $16 billion in late 2025 and is forecasted to reach $3.5 trillion by 2028 ^{[^]}. This sector has shown significant expansion, generating a cumulative $5.98 million in on-chain revenue by April 2025. Monthly revenue stood at $458,000, which reflects a 33% year-over-year increase ^{[^]}.

Leading projects like Helium and Render significantly contribute to this economic expansion. These projects are pivotal in driving the sector's growth. Helium's annualized revenue ascended to $20 million by mid-December 2025, with its mobile service accounting for about 90% of its total revenue and serving over 461,500 accounts by Q3 2025 ^{[^]}. Daily active users for Helium alone surged to nearly 1.7 million by the end of 2025, indicating substantial on-chain transaction volume from real-world service consumption ^{[^]}. Render, specializing in decentralized GPU compute, generated $2.65 million in cumulative revenue by April 2025 and reported a peak weekly revenue of $300,000 in late 2024 ^{[^]}. By EOY 2025, Solana's top DePIN projects are projected to generate over $82,200 in daily on-chain fees and contribute millions of daily transactions, establishing a resilient and sustainable source of value for the Solana blockchain ^{[^]}. This capital-efficient model, leveraging Solana's high throughput and low fees, provides a strong fundamental anchor for Solana's valuation, diversifying its utility beyond traditional DeFi and NFTs into real-world services ^{[^]}.

The SEC's evolving regulatory philosophy significantly advanced spot Solana ETF prospects. Throughout 2025, the U.S. SEC shifted its regulatory stance, beginning with critical guidance issued in May 2025, which clarified that standard protocol staking does not inherently constitute a securities transaction. This view was subsequently extended to liquid staking protocols in August 2025, effectively addressing a major legal impediment for proof-of-stake assets. Further streamlining the process, the SEC approved a new regulatory framework in September 2025, establishing generic listing standards for crypto-based ETFs, which reduced ambiguity for future product approvals.

Asset managers actively pursued Solana ETFs, culminating in November 2025 approvals. Franklin Templeton initiated its engagement with the SEC on February 21, 2025, by filing an application for a spot Solana ETF that included a staking component. Subsequently, VanEck submitted an application on August 27, 2025, for an innovative ETF based on the liquid staking token JitoSOL. These proactive efforts led to the SEC's approval of both the VanEck Solana ETF (VSOL) and the Franklin Templeton Solana ETF (SOEZ) in November 2025, with VanEck's fund commencing trading on November 17, 2025.

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