How high will Solana get in 2026?

Firedancer demonstrates high theoretical throughput, aspiring to 1 million TPS on Solana. Developed by Jump Crypto, the Firedancer validator client was integrated into Solana's mainnet by March 2026 with the ambitious goal of increasing transaction capacity to 1 million transactions per second (TPS) ^{[^]}. While Firedancer has achieved this figure in testnet and lab environments ^{[^]}, and reached a peak of 100,000 TPS during mainnet stress tests using simplified no-op calls ^{[^]}, these results often stem from controlled settings rather than complex, real-world transaction loads.

Despite these advancements, real-world conditions revealed Solana's continued network congestion and transaction finality delays into 2026. For instance, Solana experienced a significant congestion crisis impacting decentralized finance (DeFi) in February 2026 ^{[^]}. Around the same time, Coinbase reported transaction delays on Solana due to underlying network technical issues ^{[^]}. These incidents indicate that under genuine user demand and complex transaction types, Solana's network has struggled to maintain consistent performance without encountering finality delays, with typical real-world TPS often ranging between 1,000 and 5,000.

Therefore, no evidence supports Solana processing three 10,000 TPS events without significant delays. Based on the observed real-world performance and network incidents, there is no evidence suggesting Solana's network will successfully process at least three separate stress events exceeding 10,000 TPS in 2026 without experiencing transaction finality delays of more than 5 seconds ^{[^]}.

Hypothetical US spot Solana ETFs could see significant initial inflows. If approved by Q2 2026, such an ETF is projected to attract net cumulative inflows ranging from $800 million to $1.2 billion within its first 60 days of trading. This estimation is informed by the performance trends observed from existing US spot Solana ETFs that launched in October 2025 ^{[^]}. It is important to consider that market conditions, specifically Solana's price (around $160 at the time), differed considerably during the early trading period of the 2025 ETFs compared to current levels (approximately $86-90).

Existing Solana ETFs demonstrated robust initial performance and substantial cumulative inflows. The US spot Solana ETFs that launched earlier showed strong initial performance, recording approximately $531 million in inflows during their first week ^{[^]}. This volume quickly increased to roughly $600 million soon after ^{[^]}. By March 2026, cumulative inflows for these ETFs had neared $1 billion ^{[^]}, eventually reaching a peak of up to $1.5 billion, even amidst a substantial 57% decline in SOL price since their inception ^{[^]}.

Projected ETF inflows could significantly impact Solana's market liquidity. Comparing the estimated first 60-day ETF inflows of $800 million to $1.2 billion against the estimated 50-100 million SOL available on major exchanges (considering a total circulating supply of approximately 605 million SOL ^{[^]}), the inflows would likely meet or exceed the readily available SOL. This scenario carries the potential to tighten market liquidity, particularly if these ETFs are structured to hold or stake Solana long-term.

Remaining locked SOL from FTX estate vests linearly through mid-2026. The FTX estate and Alameda Research hold the remaining locked Solana (SOL) supply, which follows a linear vesting schedule over 72 months, initiated around 2020 ^{[^]}. For the second half of 2025 and the first half of 2026, monthly unlocks are projected to be between approximately 193,000 and 609,000 SOL ^{[^]}. Specific instances include an estimated 193,000 SOL unlocking on November 11, 2025, and 195,000 SOL on December 11, 2025, with similar amounts expected monthly ^{[^]}. These unlocks are gradual, with no major cliff unlocks identified for this period ^{[^]}. Most major venture capital allocations from earlier funding rounds have already completed their vesting schedules, with 100% of these allocations reported as unlocked years ago ^{[^]}. Messari data indicates that 99.88% of the total SOL supply was unlocked as of mid-2025, implying a minimal amount remains locked and tied to FTX ^{[^]}.

Post-unlock SOL movements to exchanges are generally low, with limited market impact. Precise aggregate statistics detailing the percentage of newly liquid SOL moved to exchange wallets versus being re-staked within seven days are not publicly available [Web Research Results]. However, historical observations provide some insight; following a 3 million SOL unlock in March 2025, approximately 25,000 SOL, or 0.8% of that unlock, was deposited to Binance within days ^{[^]}. The FTX estate, focused on creditor repayments, has previously sold around 13 million SOL, often utilizing over-the-counter (OTC) channels [Web Research Results, 4]. While some newly liquid SOL is re-staked by buyers, the immediate movement to centralized exchanges (CEXs) typically constitutes a low single-digit percentage [Web Research Results]. These relatively small monthly unlocks, representing about 0.03-0.1% of the circulating supply, are considered to exert limited sell pressure given Solana's high overall staking rate of 71% and ongoing network growth [Web Research Results, 6].

Solana gained significant developer mindshare during H2 2025, attracting new talent. The platform demonstrated a notable net increase in developers, drawing talent primarily from smaller Layer-1 chains such as Aptos and Sui ^{[^]}. This growth occurred despite an overall industry trend of declining crypto developer activity, largely attributed to a shift in focus towards artificial intelligence ^{[^]}. Solana's developer base reached a record 6,000 in 2025, with 3,830 new professionals joining the ecosystem ^{[^]}. The network experienced no net loss of developers to competing ecosystems, effectively demonstrating strong talent retention and attraction ^{[^]}.

Solana dominated high-value projects and Total Value Locked (TVL). The ecosystem consistently outperformed competitors like Aptos and Sui in this regard, reporting over $6.4 billion in TVL, significantly higher than their respective sub-$1 billion figures ^{[^]}. Solana also demonstrated leadership in on-chain fees and decentralized exchange (DEX) volume ^{[^]}. Important projects such as Jupiter, Kamino, and Jito, which are among the top 50 by TVL, remained stable within the Solana ecosystem ^{[^]}. Despite a market downturn in Q4, Solana maintained approximately a 7% market share and reached a yearly peak of $23 billion in DeFi TVL for 2025 ^{[^]}.

Q4 2025 enterprise transaction fee revenue lacks explicit quantification. Precise daily average transaction fee revenue for the top 10 non-DeFi/non-memecoin applications on Solana, particularly those stemming from enterprise partnerships, was not explicitly available for Q4 2025 ^{[^]}. Enterprise collaborations, such as Solflare's partnership with Mastercard launched in November 2025, and the broader Solana Payment Protocol (SDP) involving Mastercard, Worldpay, and Western Union in March 2026, were too recent to provide quantifiable transaction fee data attributable to specific applications during this period ^{[^]}. While Solana's overall payment volume increased by 755% year-over-year, specific on-chain fees per application from these partnerships were not detailed ^{[^]}. For context, the entire Solana network generated an estimated $603 million in annual fees in 2025, averaging approximately $1.65 million daily ^{[^]}. However, DePIN applications, a significant non-DeFi/non-memecoin segment, provided revenue insights. In November 2025, DePIN applications like Helium, Hivemapper, and GEODNET collectively generated approximately $2.3 million in monthly app revenues, equating to roughly $76,667 per day ^{[^]}. Helium alone contributed between $1.7 million and $2.9 million monthly, or approximately $57,000 to $97,000 daily, likely from priority fees ^{[^]}.

Projected 2026 growth focuses on DePIN and maturing partnerships. Projecting 2026 growth for transaction fee revenue from specific non-DeFi/non-memecoin applications and enterprise partnerships remains largely speculative due to the novelty of these integrations and insufficient historical granular data. Nevertheless, the DePIN sector is anticipated to experience substantial growth, with estimates suggesting a 2-5x increase in revenue for 2026 ^{[^]}. This growth is primarily expected to be driven by broader enterprise adoption, which would likely lead to increased transaction fee contributions from these applications. The full financial impact of enterprise partnerships involving entities like Mastercard, Worldpay, and Western Union is expected to materialize more significantly in 2026 as these integrations mature and expand, though specific transaction fee revenue attributed to individual applications within these partnerships is not yet publicly quantified ^{[^]}.

Several bullish catalysts could influence Solana's price [^] . Key among these are significant technical upgrades, including the Alpenglow consensus upgrade slated for Q1 2026 mainnet, promising sub-150ms transaction finality, and the full implementation of the Firedancer validator, which could enable over 1 million transactions per second (TPS) ^{[^]}. Additionally, sustained ETF inflows, growth in the stablecoin market, a recovery in the DeFi and memecoin ecosystems, and increasing institutional tokenization, such as Ondo's initiatives with stocks and ETFs, could provide upward momentum ^{[^]}. Conversely, numerous bearish risks present challenges for Solana ^{[^]}. These include ongoing class-action lawsuits against Solana Labs, the Solana Foundation, Pump.fun, and Jito, alleging unfair advantages related to Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) ^{[^]}. The platform's historical record of network outages and a substantial 62% crash in memecoin DEX volume also weigh on investor confidence ^{[^]}. Further potential downsides come from FTX unlocks leading to on-chain selling, intensifying competition from Ethereum Layer 2 solutions, and broader macroeconomic downturns stemming from geopolitical instability ^{[^]}. A bear flag chart pattern observed in recent declines suggests a potential target range of $59-$100, indicating further downside risk ^{[^]}.