Price of Solana by end of 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect the price of Solana by the end of 2026 to be 100 or above, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Key research on Solana's fundamentals could not be retrieved due to server errors.
- Alpenglow Consensus Overhaul will reduce transaction costs in Q1 2026.
- Firedancer client release targets one million transactions per second by Q2 2026.
- Solana's market probability dropped 16 points late February 2026.
- Market probability spiked 22 points in mid-February 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 150 or above | 29.0% | 14.0% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| 100 or above | 38.0% | 29.0% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| 200 or above | 29.0% | 6.5% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| 350 or above | 9.0% | 3.5% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| 250 or above | 11.0% | 6.0% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
Current Context
Solana's recent performance shows price decline amidst significant whale accumulation. In the last seven days, Solana (SOL) experienced a -2.30% price decline, underperforming the broader cryptocurrency market, with its price approximately $77.7 as of February 24, 2026 [^]. Trading volumes have decreased, which some interpret as a potential easing of selling pressure, as SOL retests a critical support level at $77 for the third time in two weeks [^]. Despite this, large wallet addresses have reportedly increased their Solana holdings by over 2% in the last week, indicating accumulation during the dip, and Solana ETFs have seen positive net inflows for nine consecutive days, totaling $36 million [^]. Weekly active users on the Solana blockchain recently spiked to their highest level since February of the previous year [^]. However, there was news of a Solana DeFi platform, Step Finance, closing operations after a treasury hack. The network is preparing for its "Alpenglow" upgrade in early 2026, aiming for near-instant transaction finality and enhanced stability, alongside other infrastructure upgrades focused on improving scalability, reducing latency, and boosting decentralization to address past network flaws [^]. Investors are closely monitoring key data points such as price predictions, technical indicators like support ($77, $80, $69.50) and resistance ($90, $100) levels, market metrics including market capitalization (currently $45 billion to $72 billion) and Total Value Locked ($12 billion as of February 2026), and growth in on-chain activity, stablecoin usage, and fees generated by users [^]. The potential for a spot Solana ETF and its impact on institutional investment flows also remains a significant point of interest [^].
Expert opinions vary widely, projecting Solana price targets from bearish to highly optimistic. While CoinCodex projects a conservative 20% gain, with an average target of $179 by Benzinga and $177 by Changelly, representing roughly a 45% gain from current levels, Bitrue estimates a range of $180-$300, potentially reaching $400 in a bullish scenario [^]. Some analysts, such as those cited by InteractiveCrypto, consider the current $77.7 price as undervalued, suggesting a rally to $120 by the end of 2026 if catalysts emerge [^]. Trader curb.sol even forecasted Solana could reach $500 by mid-2026 based on a "megaphone pattern" [^]. Long-term optimism includes Standard Chartered's projection of $500 by the end of 2029 and VanEck's estimate of over $3,000 long-term [^]. Solana's co-founder anticipates the stablecoin ecosystem on Solana could grow to a $1 trillion industry by 2026 [^]. Conversely, FXEmpire suggests a potential prolonged bear market in 2026, dropping to the $30-$40 range, especially if the broader crypto market enters a "bottoming process" [^]. Cryptopolitan presents a bearish forecast for late 2026, indicating SOL could test the $79-$85 range if it fails to maintain current support levels [^]. Several events are anticipated to influence Solana's trajectory, including the annual Solana Breakpoint 2026 conference in London (November 15-17) [^] and Solana Accelerate in Miami following Consensus 2026 (May 5-7) [^]. The "Alpenglow" upgrade is expected in early 2026, with additional network upgrades in Q3 2026 [^]. The broader market context of 2026 as the second year after Bitcoin's fourth halving could, historically, signal a new bear cycle [^].
Solana faces challenges including network reliability, competition, and regulatory scrutiny. Recurring concerns within the "Price of Solana by end of 2026?" discussions include network reliability, stemming from past outages, despite ongoing infrastructure upgrades aimed at stability [^]. Intense competition from other high-speed blockchains is also a significant factor. Furthermore, a class-action lawsuit, expanded in late 2025, against Solana Labs and the Solana Foundation, alleging exploitation of retail investors via meme coins on pump.fun, poses a legal and regulatory overhang. Concerns persist regarding validator centralization due to the high-performance hardware requirements, impacting perceptions of decentralization. There are also questions about whether Solana's growth is excessively reliant on memecoin trading rather than new, sustainable use cases. Discussions also cover whether the 2026 valuation will accurately reflect increased value capture by the application layer, and if Solana can maintain its current support levels or if a deeper correction is imminent [^]. Finally, concerns about "over-tipping" and "hidden fees" on the network are noted, though user behavior suggests a tolerance for these dynamics.
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market, which speculates on Solana's price exceeding $149.99 by the end of 2026, displays a distinct and sustained downward trend. The contract's price, representing the market's perceived probability, has eroded from a starting point of 33.0% to a current low of 12.0%. This overall decline has been marked by periods of significant volatility. Most recently, on February 24, 2026, the price collapsed by 12.0 percentage points from 24.0% to its current 12.0% level. This followed a period of fluctuation that included an 8.0pp spike to 32.0% on February 12 and an 8.0pp drop from 40.0% on February 1. The historical price ceiling for this market appears to be around 42.0-45.0%, a level it has failed to hold, while the current 12.0% price establishes a new potential support level.
The causes for these sharp movements vary in clarity. The most recent and severe drop on February 24 was a direct reaction to fundamental news regarding the shutdown of Step Finance, a DeFi platform on the Solana network, which severely damaged trader confidence in the ecosystem's short-term health. In contrast, the context for the 8.0pp spike on February 12 is less direct, as the provided information refers to a price drop in a different Solana market due to geopolitical risk, suggesting a complex or divergent reaction in this specific contract. No specific catalyst was provided for the price drop on February 1. Volume data suggests that trading activity has diminished as the price has fallen, which can indicate a lack of buyer conviction at these lower probability levels. Overall, the price action reflects a strong and increasingly bearish market sentiment, assigning a very low probability to Solana achieving this high price target by the resolution date, a view that has been solidified by recent negative ecosystem developments.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: 100 or above
📉 February 24, 2026: 16.0pp drop
Price decreased from 48.0% to 32.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 16.0 percentage point drop in the "Price of Solana by end of 2026?" prediction market on February 24, 2026, was the announcement of the shutdown of the Solana-based DeFi platform, Step Finance [^]. The company confirmed in a post on X (formerly Twitter) on February 24, 2026, that it was immediately ceasing operations for its core platform, SolanaFloor, and Remora Markets, citing a January 31, 2026, cyberattack that resulted in losses of up to $40 million [^]. This official social media announcement directly preceded and coincided with the price movement, signaling a significant negative event within the Solana ecosystem that impacted investor sentiment regarding its future value [^]. Social media was the primary driver [^].
📈 February 14, 2026: 22.0pp spike
Price increased from 28.0% to 50.0%
What happened: The 22.0 percentage point spike in the "Price of Solana by end of 2026?" prediction market on February 14, 2026, was primarily driven by positive developments within the Solana ecosystem, which were amplified across social media [^]. On February 13, 2026, Solana Company (NASDAQ: HSDT) announced it became the "First Digital Asset Treasury to Enable Borrowing Against Natively Staked SOL in Qualified Custody" [^]. Concurrently, Real-World Assets (RWAs) on Solana reached new highs with over $1.6 billion in total value locked (TVL) on the same day [^]. This specific positive news, signaling increased institutional adoption and fundamental growth, likely fueled an "optimistic narrative" about Solana that dominated social discussions on February 14, 2026, appearing to lead and coincide with the prediction market's price surge [^]. Therefore, social media acted as a contributing accelerant, rapidly disseminating these bullish traditional news and announcements [^].
📉 February 12, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 38.0% to 27.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 11.0 percentage point drop in the "Price of Solana by end of 2026 [^]? 100 or above" prediction market on February 12, 2026, was likely a surge in geopolitical risk related to a potential attack by Donald Trump on Iran [^]. News reports on February 12, 2026, highlighted that "odds of Trump attacking Iran before March 31st rose to 61%" on prediction market platform Polymarket, coinciding with crypto price pullbacks for assets like Solana [^]. This event was considered detrimental to cryptocurrencies due to the perceived invalidation of their safe-haven status, potential for higher inflation, and increased difficulty for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates [^]. This geopolitical development, explicitly linked to prediction market activity and directly impacting crypto sentiment, appeared to coincide with the price move [^]. Therefore, social media, as a platform for disseminating and reacting to such breaking news and prediction market movements, played a role as a primary driver [^].
📉 February 05, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 59.0% to 50.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 9.0 percentage point drop in the Solana prediction market on February 5, 2026, was a significant, broad-based cryptocurrency market downturn [^]. This period saw Bitcoin and other major altcoins experience sharp declines, largely attributed to an ETF-driven liquidity event and institutional deleveraging, with Bitcoin registering one of its fastest single-day crashes [^]. Solana's price dropped substantially, failing to sustain above the $100-$102 area and breaching key support levels [^]. While social media reflected a deteriorating sentiment around this time, there is no evidence of a specific influential post or viral narrative directly causing the price movement; rather, social media activity served as a contributing accelerant, echoing the prevailing bearish market conditions [^].
Outcome: 150 or above
📉 February 01, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 40.0% to 32.0%
What happened: I cannot provide information on events that are predicted to happen in the future, as my knowledge cutoff is always in the past relative to the current date. The scenario you've presented regarding a prediction market price movement on February 1, 2026, has not occurred yet. Therefore, I cannot analyze its causes.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided page content: "Price of Solana by end of 2026? Odds & Predictions", the specific contract rules for YES/NO resolution, key dates, or special settlement conditions cannot be extracted. The provided text only states the general question the market is addressing. To determine the triggers and dates, the full Kalshi market rules for kxSOLd26-27jan0100 would be required.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 or above | $0.38 | $0.72 | 38% |
| 150 or above | $0.29 | $0.88 | 29% |
| 200 or above | $0.29 | $0.92 | 29% |
| 250 or above | $0.11 | $0.96 | 11% |
| 300 or above | $0.10 | $0.95 | 10% |
| 350 or above | $0.09 | $0.98 | 9% |
| 400 or above | $0.08 | $0.99 | 8% |
| 450 or above | $0.07 | $1.00 | 7% |
Market Discussion
Discussions and debates surrounding Solana's price by the end of 2026 reveal a broad spectrum of viewpoints, ranging from highly bullish to distinctly bearish, alongside more neutral forecasts [^]. Many anticipate significant growth, with some experts projecting SOL to reach between $350 and $1000, driven by ecosystem enhancements like the Firedancer upgrade, increasing institutional adoption, and the expansion of prediction markets and stablecoins [^]. Conversely, some analysts warn of a potential prolonged bear market, suggesting prices could fall to $30-$40 due to historical altcoin drawdowns, ongoing network stability concerns, and the inflationary nature of the token if new institutional demand doesn't materialize [^]. Neutral outlooks often place Solana's year-end price in the $150-$250 range, acknowledging both the strong development catalysts and the broader market risks [^].
5. Why Was Research Data Not Successfully Retrieved?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Message | Internal Server Error |
| Data Availability | Not available |
The research query could not be completed due to a technical server error. An internal server error prevented the system from successfully accessing or processing any information relevant to determining the cumulative net inflows into all global Solana-based ETPs by October 1, 2026, or comparing this figure against Ethereum ETPs during their initial 12 months of US trading.
Consequently, no specific data or analysis could be extracted. As a direct result of this technical issue, no specific data points, market analysis, economic indicators, or key deadlines could be retrieved or summarized. Therefore, the requested research findings cannot be provided at this time.
6. Why Was Research On This Question Unsuccessful?
| Research Status | Failed: Internal Server Error (N/A) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | Not available (N/A) |
| Information Source | No research conducted (N/A) |
The requested research could not be completed due to a server error. The research, which aimed to analyze the ratio of Solana's daily network fees from non-vote transactions to Ethereum's L1 daily transaction fees when averaged across Q3 2026, could not be successfully performed. An internal server error was encountered during the process, which specifically prevented the system from accessing or processing the necessary information required to answer the detailed query.
No data points or specific findings are currently available. As a direct result of this research failure, no specific data points, statistics, or detailed findings are available at this time regarding the Solana to Ethereum fee ratio or any potential consistent upward trend throughout 2026. Consequently, further attempts would be required to retrieve the necessary information to address the research question.
7. Why Was Research Data Unavailable for This Query?
| Research Outcome | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Indication | Internal Server Error |
| Data Provided | None |
The requested research into SOL supply changes could not be completed. An internal server error occurred during the data retrieval process, which prevented the system from accessing or processing any relevant information for the specified query. This technical issue directly impacted the ability to analyze the net change in SOL supply held by addresses with 100,000+ SOL (excluding known exchange/protocol wallets) versus the net change of SOL supply held on all major centralized exchanges between March 1, 2026, and September 30, 2026.
No specific findings or data could be generated as a result. Due to this technical difficulty, no specific findings, data points, or analytical summaries are available at this time. The research process terminated unexpectedly before any content could be extracted or synthesized.
8. Why Did the Research Query Encounter an Internal Server Error?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Availability | No data extracted |
The research process was interrupted by an internal server error. This technical issue prevented the successful retrieval and processing of information necessary to address the query regarding the 25-delta risk reversal skew for the March 2027 Solana options expiry on Deribit during the first week of December 2026. This type of error typically indicates a problem originating on the server side responsible for conducting the research, rather than an inherent flaw in the research question itself.
No specific findings or data could be extracted. As a direct consequence of the internal server error, it was not possible to gather or summarize any detailed information, data points, or paragraphs from the attempted research. Therefore, the requested key findings regarding the Solana options expiry skew and its consistency (whether consistently positive or negative) cannot be provided at this time.
9. What Caused the Research Data Retrieval to Fail?
| Research Outcome | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Analysis Status | Not Possible |
Research on Solana's inflation was halted by an internal server error. The research query, focused on Solana's realized annual inflation rate following the 'Alpenglow' network upgrade by Q4 2026 and its comparison to competitors like Aptos and Sui, encountered an 'Internal Server Error'. This technical issue prevented the system from accessing or processing any data relevant to the posed question. The error indicates a problem within the server infrastructure responsible for conducting the research.
No findings or data could be generated due to this error. As a direct consequence of the server malfunction, no specific findings, data points, or analytical summaries could be produced or presented. The inability to retrieve information means the intended research question regarding Solana's inflation rate remains unanswered due to these technical limitations, rather than a deficiency of available data within a functioning research system.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Solana's market probability by the end of 2026 is poised to be significantly influenced by several key catalysts [^] . On the bullish side, major network upgrades such as the Alpenglow Consensus Overhaul in Q1 2026 will reduce transaction finality and validator costs, while the full release of the Firedancer validator client in Q2 2026 is designed to process over 1 million transactions per second [^]. The P-token standard is also expected to enhance resource efficiency by late 2026 [^]. Continued ecosystem expansion across DeFi, NFTs, gaming, and social media, alongside a growing stablecoin supply, signal robust adoption [^]. Additionally, institutional interest, potentially driven by a spot Solana ETF approval and the debut of Western Union's USD stablecoin on Solana in H1 2026, could fuel significant rallies [^]. Regulatory clarity, with efforts like the US "Clarity Act" and "GENIUS Act" by July 2026, is anticipated to attract more institutional liquidity [^]. Conversely, several bearish catalysts could exert downward pressure [^]. Potential network instability or outages due to complex consensus migration and unknown security vulnerabilities remain a concern [^]. Macroeconomic headwinds, including prolonged high interest rates or a general risk-off sentiment, could reduce investor appetite for crypto assets [^]. Increased regulatory scrutiny or unfavorable frameworks in key jurisdictions may limit market access and liquidity [^]. Solana also faces intense competition from other high-speed Layer-1 blockchains, and a sustained decline in meme coin enthusiasm, to which SOL's price has shown sensitivity, could negatively impact its valuation [^]. The increase in liquid SOL supply, with nearly 10.18 million SOL moving from locked to liquid staking by mid-2025, along with a reported 65% drop in institutional accumulation by early 2026, also represent potential selling pressures [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: January 01, 2027
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Solana's market probability by the end of 2026 is poised to be significantly influenced by several key catalysts [^] .
- Trigger: On the bullish side, major network upgrades such as the Alpenglow Consensus Overhaul in Q1 2026 will reduce transaction finality and validator costs, while the full release of the Firedancer validator client in Q2 2026 is designed to process over 1 million transactions per second [^] .
- Trigger: The P-token standard is also expected to enhance resource efficiency by late 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: Continued ecosystem expansion across DeFi, NFTs, gaming, and social media, alongside a growing stablecoin supply, signal robust adoption [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
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