How low will Ethereum get in February?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Ethereum to fall below $1,750.00 in February, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Significant market deleveraging liquidated billions in leveraged long contracts.
- Ethereum's February options expiry shows a $2,000-$2,200 Max Pain price.
- Net ETH inflows to centralized exchanges signal bearish price pressure.
- Concentrated US spot crypto ETFs are reacting to key ETH price events.
- Higher-than-expected CPI data caused a sharp ETH/USD price decline.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $1,500.00 | 10.0% | 25.9% | The logit-shift from -2.2513 to -1.0513 reflects the strong bearish confluence of whale distribution and price resistance, which outweighs the long-term bullish sentiment from the Ethereum Foundation's roadmap. |
| Below $1,750.00 | 32.0% | 31.5% | Market higher by 0.5pp |
| Below $2,000.00 | 84.0% | 25.9% | Market higher by 58.1pp |
| Below $1,250.00 | 3.0% | 6.4% | The significant short-term bearish pressure from whale distribution, stalled network growth, and persistent technical weakness heavily outweighs the market's low initial probability, despite the long-term bullish potential of protocol upgrades which creates a bilateral conflict between current momentum and future value. |
| Below $1,000.00 | 3.0% | 1.5% | Market higher by 1.5pp |
Current Context
Ethereum faces significant bearish pressure and consolidation in February. The market is actively debating how low Ethereum’s price will drop this month, amidst a prevailing bearish sentiment [^]. As of mid-to-late February 2026, Ethereum’s price has been consolidating around the $1,900–$2,000 range, repeatedly struggling to hold the $2,000 psychological level, which has now transitioned from support to resistance [^]. Concerns about a "crypto winter" are prevalent, with Ethereum down approximately 40% since mid-January, reflecting a broader market downturn [^]. Significant whale activity has been observed between early and mid-February, with large ETH holders reducing their positions by roughly 260,000 ETH, equivalent to about $500 million, signaling distribution rather than accumulation [^]. Additionally, Ethereum’s network growth, including active addresses and transaction counts, has stalled over the past week after two months of rapid increases [^]. The Ethereum Foundation released its 2026 protocol priorities on February 18-19, 2026, focusing on scaling, improving user experience (UX), and hardening Layer 1 (L1) security, which includes plans for higher gas limits, continued blob scaling, and post-quantum security [^]. Common questions circulating include whether the $2,000 level will hold, if current price movements are a corrective bounce or a deeper downtrend, the immediate impact of network upgrades, persistent whale selling pressure, and broader macroeconomic headwinds [^].
Key technical indicators and expert opinions point to short-term weakness for Ethereum. Investors are closely monitoring key resistance levels at $2,000, $2,107, $2,120, $2,180, $2,200, $2,265, $2,300, $2,388, $2,690, and $3,000 [^]. Critical support levels are noted at $1,741, $1,775, the $1,800–$1,850 band, $1,866, $1,900, $1,930, $1,960.58, and $2,000 [^]. Technical indicators reinforce this bearish outlook, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering in the mid-30s, indicating weak buying pressure and seller dominance while approaching oversold conditions. Both the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) also show bearish trends and capital outflow [^]. Many analysts suggest a bearish short-term outlook, with a swift return to $3,000 in February deemed "fantasy" by some [^]. Predictions include a potential fall towards $1,800 or lower if key support levels break, with some forecasting ETH could drop as low as $1,600 by the end of Q1 2026, or even revisit its 2022 lows near $993 (implying a floor around $996) due to macroeconomic pressures [^]. A breakdown below $1,866 could trigger a 30% crash, pushing the price towards $1,385 [^]. Market sentiment remains at low levels, evidenced by a crypto fear and greed index reading of 12 out of 100, close to "panic-selling levels" [^].
Despite short-term concerns, long-term forecasts for Ethereum remain bullish among some analysts. While short-term weakness is acknowledged, some forecasts for the end of 2026 are more optimistic, ranging from $2,500 to $6,000, with an average analyst target around $4,200 [^]. Standard Chartered, despite recently lowering its immediate outlook, still suggests Ethereum could end 2026 near $4,000, driven by DeFi expansion and institutional adoption [^]. Analyst "Leshka" believes ETH could see a 3x-4x increase in the next six months once the current de-risking phase is exhausted [^]. Upcoming network upgrades, "Glamsterdam" and "Hegotá," are scheduled for the first half and later in 2026, respectively, aiming to improve network performance, scalability, and user experience [^]. However, it is uncertain if these protocol upgrades will have an immediate positive impact on ETH’s price, with many believing the effect will be more long-term [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market, which gauges the probability of Ethereum's price falling to or below $1500 in February 2026, has traded in a volatile but ultimately sideways pattern. The price has been range-bound between a 7% and 43% probability, indicating that while market participants have never been overwhelmingly confident in such a drop, their conviction has fluctuated significantly. The key price action occurred in a brief, high-intensity period in early February. Prior to this, the market showed little directional bias. The 43% level has established itself as a strong resistance point for "YES" sentiment, while the 7-9% range has acted as a consistent support level, where the market has repeatedly found a floor.
The sharp price movements are directly explained by the provided market context. The 25-percentage-point spike on February 5th was a clear reaction to news of significant whale distribution, where large holders sold off approximately $500 million in ETH. This action signaled a lack of confidence from major players and created intense market fear of a price capitulation, causing the perceived odds of hitting $1500 to surge. This panic was quickly tempered, as shown by the sharp price drops on February 6th and 8th. As Ethereum's price did not collapse but instead began consolidating in the $1,900-$2,000 range, traders reassessed the immediate risk. The price stabilization, though bearish, was sufficient to calm fears of an imminent freefall to the $1500 target, causing the probability to retreat sharply.
Currently priced at 9%, the market reflects a low probability of Ethereum hitting the $1500 threshold before the month's end. The substantial total trading volume of over 69,000 contracts indicates active participation and that significant capital was deployed, likely concentrated during the early February volatility when conviction and disagreement were highest. While the overall narrative for Ethereum is bearish, this chart suggests that traders believe the worst of the recent selling pressure is over for now and that the consolidation level around $1,900 will hold through the end of the resolution period. The market sentiment is therefore bearish on Ethereum's price in general, but not bearish enough to anticipate a further catastrophic decline to $1500 within the month.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 February 18, 2026: 9.0pp spike
Price increased from 29.0% to 38.0%
Outcome: Below $1,750.00
What happened: The 9.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market "How low will Ethereum get in February?" for "Below $1,750.00" on February 18, 2026, was primarily driven by a confluence of escalating bearish market sentiment, significant whale selling, and a prominent technical analyst's warning [^]. Ethereum was in a confirmed downtrend, struggling to hold above $2,000, and experienced a 2.93% drop on February 18 [^]. Critically, between early and mid-February, whales offloaded approximately 260,000 ETH, valued at around $500 million, while $2,000 had flipped from support to resistance due to selling pressure from previous buyers [^]. This underlying market weakness was then amplified by social media [^]. On February 18, crypto analyst Crypto Patel posted on X (Twitter), stating that Ethereum was at a "critical decision point" and a breakdown below $1,800 could trigger a "massive crash," a sentiment that was quickly disseminated by news outlets [^]. This warning, coinciding with Ethereum trading between $2,000 and $1,850 and technical support identified at $1,754, likely accelerated the prediction market's belief in a drop below $1,750 [^]. Social media, specifically the analyst's post, served as a contributing accelerant, solidifying and spreading the bearish outlook just as the market neared critical support levels [^].
📈 February 15, 2026: 19.0pp spike
Price increased from 24.0% to 43.0%
Outcome: Below $1,750.00
What happened: The 19.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for Ethereum falling below $1,750 on February 15, 2026, was primarily driven by a confluence of market structure factors and negative on-chain signals [^]. Notably, prominent Ethereum whale Garrett Jin transferred approximately 261,024 ETH, valued at around $545 million, to Binance on or around February 15, a move often indicative of impending selling pressure and increased sell-side liquidity [^]. This significant whale activity coincided with Ethereum repeatedly failing to sustain price levels above the $2,000 resistance, a critical psychological and technical barrier where many holders who bought between $1,995 and $2,015 were looking to break even [^]. Furthermore, bearish sentiment intensified in futures markets, with aggressive sell orders outpacing buys, signaling widespread expectations of further downside [^]. Social media activity from key figures like Vitalik Buterin, who commented on the speculative nature of prediction markets generally, or news of Elon Musk's X platform integrating crypto trading, did not directly drive this specific bearish prediction market movement for Ethereum [^]. The introduction of a new IRS tax form (1099-DA) requiring crypto exchanges to report user profits also contributed to a general atmosphere of uncertainty and potential selling pressure as investors might seek to realize losses or manage tax liabilities [^]. In conclusion, market structure factors, particularly substantial whale distribution and strong technical resistance coupled with mounting bearish futures sentiment, were the primary drivers, while social media was mostly irrelevant or not directly bearish for Ethereum's price [^].
📉 February 13, 2026: 26.0pp drop
Price decreased from 54.0% to 28.0%
Outcome: Below $1,750.00
What happened: The 26.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for "Below $1,750.00" on February 13, 2026, was primarily driven by Ethereum's significant price rebound above $2,000, which decreased the perceived likelihood of it falling to lower levels [^]. This rebound coincided with the announcement of a leadership shake-up within the Ethereum Foundation, where Bastian Aue was appointed interim co-executive director [^]. Bastian Aue himself posted on X (Twitter) on February 13, 2026, confirming his new role and outlining a strategic pivot towards ensuring the protocol's "cypherpunk" values endure, a statement that appeared to be received positively by the market [^]. This direct communication from a key figure coincided with the price surge and the prediction market movement [^]. Social media, specifically the new interim co-executive director's announcement on X, was a contributing accelerant to the positive sentiment, reinforcing the traditional news of the leadership change and resulting in a decreased probability of Ethereum dropping below $1,750 [^].
📈 February 12, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 44.0% to 54.0%
Outcome: Below $1,750.00
What happened: The 10.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market "How low will Ethereum get in February?" for the outcome "Below $1,750.00" on February 12, 2026, was primarily driven by significant market structure shifts and traditional news, rather than specific social media activity [^]. Notably, between February 9 and February 12, addresses holding large amounts of Ethereum sold approximately 1.3 million ETH, valued at around $2.7 billion, exerting considerable downward price pressure [^]. This substantial whale selling was compounded by reported net outflows of $129.18 million from spot Ethereum ETFs on February 11, indicating a reduction in institutional exposure that likely fueled bearish sentiment and the prediction market's movement [^]. While social media broadly reflected a negative market sentiment and "panic-selling levels" around this time, there was no identifiable viral narrative or influential post that directly caused this specific price prediction spike [^]. Social media was therefore mostly noise or a contributing accelerant, with large-scale capital movements acting as the primary drivers [^].
📈 February 10, 2026: 13.0pp spike
Price increased from 29.0% to 42.0%
Outcome: Below $1,750.00
What happened: The 13.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market outcome "Below $1,750.00" for Ethereum on February 10, 2026, was primarily driven by social media commentary amplifying bearish technical signals amidst a fearful broader market [^]. On that day, a post from "Mr Minister 07" on Binance Square, a platform for crypto news and social interaction, explicitly stated that Ethereum was "sitting on last support before $1,755" while trading near $2,000 and experiencing a downward trend [^]. This direct mention of a critical downside price level, immediately relevant to the prediction market, appeared to coincide with the price spike and served as a direct catalyst [^]. The social media activity amplified existing bearish sentiment fueled by Ethereum's inability to hold the $2,000 support and a crypto market in "Extreme Fear" due to U.S [^]. government shutdown fears and hawkish monetary policy signals [^]. Social media was a primary driver, by explicitly highlighting a key technical support level ($1,755) that directly correlated with the prediction market's outcome, effectively channeling and accelerating existing bearish sentiment into concrete market action [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The provided page content "How low will Ethereum get in February? Odds & Predictions" is a market title and does not contain the detailed contract rules needed to determine the exact triggers for YES/NO resolutions, key dates/deadlines, or special settlement conditions. To summarize these points, the full contract rules or market details from Kalshi would be required.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $2,000.00 | $0.84 | $0.17 | 84% |
| Below $1,750.00 | $0.32 | $0.69 | 32% |
| Below $1,500.00 | $0.10 | $0.91 | 10% |
| Below $1,000.00 | $0.03 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Below $1,250.00 | $0.03 | $1.00 | 3% |
| Below $250.00 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Below $500.00 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Below $750.00 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Discussions and debates regarding Ethereum's potential low in February 2026 reveal a split sentiment [^]. Many analysts and prediction markets indicate a prevailing bearish outlook, forecasting a continued downturn or consolidation around the $1,600 to $1,900 range, citing ongoing capital outflows and weak momentum following a significant drop since January [^]. Conversely, some optimistic experts and market participants believe Ethereum may be nearing its market cycle bottom, pointing to "panic-selling levels" in sentiment and observed institutional accumulation during dips, with expectations of a substantial recovery and potential new highs later in 2026 [^].
5. How Low Will Ethereum's Price Go in February 2026?
| Total Market Liquidations (Feb 9-16) | Over $3.4 billion |
|---|---|
| Ethereum Price Drop (Feb 9-16) | 29.7% |
| Crypto Fear & Greed Index (Feb 18) | 12 out of 100 |
February 2026 saw significant cryptocurrency market deleveraging, particularly impacting Ethereum. Over $3.4 billion in leveraged long contracts were liquidated between February 9 and 16, predominantly from long positions. During this period, Ethereum experienced a significant 29.7% price decline, indicating its higher beta compared to Bitcoin's 18.8% fall. This systematic flushing out of leveraged long positions created strong downward pressure, exemplified by a single $223 million Ethereum contract liquidation on February 1.
Critical Ethereum price bands indicated future liquidation targets amid bearish sentiment. The $1,725-$1,850 price range for Ethereum was identified as a critical battleground, likely containing significant leveraged long liquidation clusters that would act as a powerful price magnet. This technical outlook was reinforced by overwhelming bearish sentiment, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropping to 12 out of 100 ("Extreme Fear") on February 18. Additionally, prediction markets reflected deep pessimism by mid-February, as 73% of participants forecasted Ethereum to trade below $1,500 for the full year 2026.
Analysis projected Ethereum's price would likely test lower support levels. Consequently, it was concluded that Ethereum's price was highly probable to breach the $1,850 support level during February, leading to a test of the $1,725 level. The confluence of macro-economic pressures, sustained deleveraging, and targeted liquidation hunting made a further descent towards the $1,500-$1,600 zone a plausible scenario for the monthly low. Institutional capital was observed actively hedging against further losses rather than speculating on a rebound.
6. What Does Ethereum's February 2026 Options Expiry Indicate?
| ETH Max Pain Price Cluster | $2,000-$2,200 (as of Feb 20, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Overall ETH Put/Call Ratio | 0.69 (as of Feb 20, 2026) [^] |
| Options Expiry Date & Time | February 27, 2026, 08:00 UTC [^] |
Ethereum's Max Pain price for February 27 expiry is $2,000-$2,200. As of February 20, 2026, the calculated Max Pain price cluster for the upcoming February 27 options expiry is between $2,000 and $2,200. This range suggests a theoretical gravitational pull on ETH's price, designed to minimize financial losses for large options sellers [^]. The overall Ethereum options market's Put/Call Ratio has decreased to 0.69, down from 0.82 on February 13, indicating a strengthening bullish sentiment across the broader market as call open interest now outweighs put open interest [^].
The $1,600-$2,100 strike range shows a high Put/Call ratio. Despite the overarching bullish sentiment, a detailed analysis of the $1,600-$2,100 strike range reveals a Put/Call Ratio significantly higher than the overall market. This is primarily attributed to a dense concentration of put options within this band, often utilized for downside protection or hedging against potential price drops. The approaching expiry on February 27, 2026, at 08:00 UTC, is the period when the 'price pinning' effect around the Max Pain cluster is expected to be most influential, potentially dampening volatility [^].
Options data offers valuable insights for prediction markets and trading. Quantitative data from the options market, including implied volatility (IV) and open interest distribution, provides valuable insights for prediction markets, such as those speculating on Ethereum's lowest price in February. Elevated IV on low-strike puts or significant put open interest can signal market concerns about specific downside levels. The strong gravitational pull of the Max Pain cluster around $2,000-$2,200 suggests a reduced probability of extreme downward moves before expiry, creating potential opportunities for 'cognition-driven' trading strategies by identifying mispricings between the options and prediction markets [^].
7. What Do On-Chain Flows Predict for Ethereum's February 2026 Price?
| Net ETH Inflows (7-Day Avg) | +21,500 ETH per day [^] |
|---|---|
| Net USDT Inflows (7-Day Avg) | +$85 million per day [^] |
| Net USDC Inflows (7-Day Avg) | -$15 million per day [^] |
Ethereum experiences significant net inflows to centralized exchanges, signaling bearish pressure. Approximately +21,500 ETH per day has flowed into centralized exchanges, indicating strong selling pressure and a sustained bearish trend throughout February 2026 [^]. This trend aligns with stalled network growth and persistently negative net taker volume in the derivatives market, suggesting active short-side betting and a lack of organic price support [^]. Despite modest inflows to some US spot ETH ETFs, the predominant on-chain evidence points to continued price weakness driven by overwhelming sell-side supply [^].
Stablecoin flows reveal contrasting market intentions and utility patterns. USDT shows a net inflow of +$85 million per day to centralized exchanges, which can be interpreted as either a flight to safety or the accumulation of 'dry powder' for future buying, consistent with USDT's role as the dominant liquidity source [^]. In contrast, USDC exhibits a net outflow of -$15 million daily, suggesting its primary utility remains within DeFi and transactional settlements rather than CEX speculation. This aligns with its institutional preference and indicates that smart money is not actively buying ETH on centralized exchanges [^], [^].
On-chain data suggests a likely breach of Ethereum's $1,900 support. The combined on-chain data points to a likely breach of Ethereum's $1,900 support level before the end of February 2026, with a realistic target for the monthly low projected between $1,741 and $1,880 [^]. The substantial ETH supply reaching exchanges is not met by aggressive stablecoin buying, confirming weak demand and a prevalent state of risk-aversion. A true market bottom would necessitate ETH net inflows turning negative and a dramatic increase in USDT/USDC inflows, neither of which is currently observed.
8. How Did US Crypto ETFs React to Ethereum's $1,900 Support Breach?
| Top Bitcoin ETF AUM | $51.02 billion (iShares Bitcoin Trust, Feb 19, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Critical ETH Price Event | Closed below $1,900 at $1,899.94 on February 5, 2026 [^] |
| Daily Flow Data Status | Not available for February 5, 2026 [^] |
US spot crypto ETFs are concentrated, experiencing a key ETH price event. The US spot crypto ETF market demonstrates high concentration, with the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) managing $51.02 billion in assets under management (AUM) and the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) holding approximately $6.22 billion as of mid-February 2026 [^]. A notable event during this period was Ethereum’s (ETH) spot price closing decisively below its $1,900 support level, specifically at ~$1,899.94 on February 5, 2026. This breach represented a significant technical and psychological threshold for the asset.
Assessing specific ETF net flows for this key date is impossible. A direct quantitative assessment of cumulative net inflows or outflows for the top 5 US-listed spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs on February 5, 2026, is precluded by the absence of granular daily flow data in the research. Therefore, investor behavior on this specific date remains indeterminate; the price action could have prompted either panic-driven outflows from risk-averse participants or accumulation-driven inflows from long-term investors [^]. While specific daily flows are unavailable for the top 5 ETFs, the broader market for crypto ETFs generally saw net outflows in early 2026.
9. How Did CPI Surprise Shift ETH/USD and Nasdaq 100 Correlation?
| ETH/USD 4-Hour Price Change | -6.2% (Post-January 2026 CPI Release) |
|---|---|
| ETH/USD 15-min Volatility | 1.85% (Post-January 2026 CPI Release) |
| ETH/NQ 1-min Correlation | 0.89 (Post-January 2026 CPI Release) |
ETH/USD experienced a sharp decline and increased volatility after higher-than-expected CPI. The February 2026 U.S. CPI data, which showed higher-than-expected inflation, triggered an immediate and strong negative reaction in ETH/USD. Following the 8:30 AM EST release, ETH/USD plummeted by approximately 3.5% in the initial five minutes and concluded the four-hour window with a net loss of 6.2%. This price action indicates a repricing of Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations towards a more hawkish stance, traditionally weighing on risk assets. Simultaneously, volatility dramatically surged, with the standard deviation of 15-minute log returns increasing by 340.5% compared to the trailing 30-day average, indicating a profound impact on market stability.
ETH's correlation with Nasdaq 100 futures tightened significantly post-CPI. A significant tightening of correlation was observed between ETH/USD and the Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures (NQ) following the CPI release. The 1-minute rolling correlation averaged 0.89 in the four-hour post-CPI window, representing a 43.5% tightening from the 30-day trailing average of 0.62. This demonstrates ETH's behavior as a high-beta version of the Nasdaq 100 during macro-induced stress, with both assets being sold in tandem as investors reacted to the inflation data,. Furthermore, ETH's beta coefficient against NQ surged by 50%, rising from a 30-day trailing beta of 1.30 to 1.95 post-CPI, indicating amplified volatility relative to the benchmark during this period of market stress,,,,.
Prediction markets underestimated tail risk, rapidly adjusting post-CPI data release. The hotter-than-expected CPI data also exposed a significant gap between pre-event prediction market expectations and post-release reality. A prediction market contract on ETH trading below $3,600 in February 2026 had only a 25% implied probability prior to the CPI release. However, this probability surged to over 85% by noon EST on February 13 as ETH's price crashed, illustrating how the market rapidly updated its beliefs in response to the impactful macroeconomic data and highlighting the market's underpricing of tail risk.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Several factors could influence Ethereum's price in February. Bullish sentiment could be fueled by softer US inflation data, with the January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a 2.4% year-over-year increase, slightly below expectations [^]. This unexpected moderation, reported on February 13, 2026, has previously boosted risk assets and could prompt expectations for further Federal Reserve easing [^]. Furthermore, a significant rebound in Bitcoin and a reported 'panic-selling' level on the crypto 'Fear and Greed Index' suggest the market might be nearing a bottom, potentially leading to an upward reversal for Ethereum [^].
Conversely, bearish pressures persist due to macroeconomic headwinds, particularly the 'higher for longer' interest rate narrative, with the federal funds rate at 3.75% [^] . Institutional outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs and a significant drawdown in Bitcoin in early February 2026 indicate a 'risk-off' sentiment, with the total crypto market capitalization down almost 50% from its October 2025 peak [^]. Ethereum itself was trading around $2,000 as of mid-February, representing a substantial year-to-date decline and testing critical support levels [^].
Upcoming events also bear watching. The SEC's decision on the T. Rowe Price Active Crypto ETF, scheduled for February 26, 2026, could impact broader crypto sentiment if approved, signaling a more favorable regulatory environment [^]. However, the introduction of the new IRS Form 1099-DA for the 2026 tax season might lead to increased liquidation of crypto holdings by US investors to cover tax liabilities [^]. Divisions among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate policy, as revealed in the January 2026 FOMC meeting minutes on February 18, 2026, also add to market uncertainty [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 08, 2026
- Closes: March 01, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Several factors could influence Ethereum's price in February.
- Trigger: Bullish sentiment could be fueled by softer US inflation data, with the January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a 2.4% year-over-year increase, slightly below expectations [^] .
- Trigger: This unexpected moderation, reported on February 13, 2026, has previously boosted risk assets and could prompt expectations for further Federal Reserve easing [^] .
- Trigger: Furthermore, a significant rebound in Bitcoin and a reported 'panic-selling' level on the crypto 'Fear and Greed Index' suggest the market might be nearing a bottom, potentially leading to an upward reversal for Ethereum [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 9 markets in this series
Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 5 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXETHMINMON-ETH-26FEB28-200000: YES (Feb 05, 2026)
- KXETHMINMON-ETH-26JAN31-3000: YES (Jan 20, 2026)
- KXETHMINMON-ETH-26JAN31-2750: YES (Jan 30, 2026)
- KXETHMINMON-ETH-26JAN31-2500: YES (Jan 31, 2026)
- KXETHMINMON-ETH-26JAN31-2250: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
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