Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Ethereum to drop below $1,750.00 in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Critical research on Ethereum liquidation points and staking is unavailable.
  • Key catalyst analysis for Ethereum's future price drivers is absent.
  • Market recently showed multiple significant drops in implied probability.
  • Octagon model and current market probabilities for Ethereum are aligned.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Below $2,000.00 99.0% 69.5% Market higher by 29.5pp
Below $1,500.00 66.0% 69.5% A broad cryptocurrency market correction could drive ETH below this level.
Below $1,250.00 48.0% 49.5% Increased regulatory scrutiny or a major network exploit could trigger a steep decline.
Below $1,750.00 79.0% 84.5% Persistent macroeconomic headwinds may lead to a moderate dip.
Below $1,000.00 33.0% 32.0% A severe bear market combined with sustained FUD could push ETH under $1,000.

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market, which asks if Ethereum's 2026 low will be at or below a specific strike price (inferred as $1750 from the ticker), has demonstrated a strong upward trend since its inception. The probability has climbed from a starting point of 28.0% to its current level of 69.0%, indicating a growing consensus that the event will occur. However, the market has recently experienced a period of extreme volatility, particularly in late January and February 2026. This period was marked by several large, double-digit percentage point swings, including a 17.0pp spike on February 5th followed by a 15.0pp drop on February 13th. These movements suggest a highly reactive and uncertain trading environment where sentiment is shifting rapidly.
With no external context provided, the specific catalysts for these significant price spikes and drops cannot be determined. The market's overall price action has established a broad trading range between 27.0% and 81.0%. The recent high near 76.0% appears to be acting as a short-term resistance level, as the price has pulled back from it. Conversely, the 55-60% range has been an area of contention in February, potentially forming a support zone. The total traded volume of 30,902 contracts indicates a reasonably liquid market with significant participant conviction. Overall, the chart reflects a dominant but unsettled sentiment; while the market majority currently believes Ethereum's 2026 low will meet the contract's condition, the recent sharp price swings highlight a lack of firm consensus and the potential for further volatility.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Below $1,500.00

📉 February 13, 2026: 15.0pp drop

Price decreased from 76.0% to 61.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

📉 February 08, 2026: 12.0pp drop

Price decreased from 67.0% to 55.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

Outcome: Below $1,750.00

📉 February 06, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 88.0% to 79.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

📈 February 05, 2026: 19.0pp spike

Price increased from 71.0% to 90.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

📈 February 01, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 52.0% to 62.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

4. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

Based on the provided page content, the specific rules for YES/NO resolution, key dates, and any special settlement conditions are not detailed. The provided text only states the market title, "How low will Ethereum get this year? Odds & Predictions 2026," and a market identifier "kxethminy-27jan01." Without additional information from the Kalshi page content, these details cannot be extracted.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Implied probability
Below $2,000.00 $0.99 $0.02 99%
Below $1,750.00 $0.79 $0.22 79%
Below $1,500.00 $0.66 $0.35 66%
Below $1,250.00 $0.48 $0.53 48%
Below $1,000.00 $0.33 $0.68 33%
Below $750.00 $0.25 $0.78 25%

Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

5. Why Did the Research Encounter an Internal Server Error?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNone
Key FindingsUnavailable
The research could not be completed due to a technical issue. An internal server error was encountered during the research process, which prevented the successful retrieval and processing of any relevant information or data for the specified query.
Consequently, no specific findings or data points can be provided. As a direct result of this technical issue, it is not possible to offer specific findings, key data points, or a detailed summary concerning the initial inquiry. The research process was unable to generate any content.

6. Why Was Research Data Unavailable Due to Server Error?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNone
Root CauseServer-side issue
Research on Ethereum liquidation points was incomplete due to a server error. The specific price level identifying the largest cluster of aggregated liquidation points for Ethereum perpetual futures and quarterly options expiring in H1 2026 could not be determined. An internal server error prevented the completion of the requested research, hindering any retrieval of relevant data or findings.
The server error prevented retrieval of data and detailed analysis. As a direct consequence of this technical issue, it was impossible to summarize specific information or provide a detailed analysis concerning the liquidation points. Therefore, no detailed insights, metrics, or credible sources pertaining to the Ethereum market data from Coinglass and Deribit could be extracted or presented at this time. Further attempts to research this question will be necessary once the underlying technical issue is fully resolved.

7. Why Was Research Data Unavailable Due to an Internal Server Error?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNot Applicable
Information RetrievedNone
An internal server error prevented research data retrieval. The research query encountered an 'Internal Server Error', which completely prevented the retrieval of any findings or data. This technical issue indicates a problem within the research system, rather than a lack of information on the specific topic.
As a result of this error, no specific data or insights were extracted. As a result of this error, no relevant data points, statistics, or detailed insights could be extracted for summarization. Consequently, all requested information remains unavailable due to the internal server problem.

8. What Research Findings Are Available From The Provided Input?

Research OutcomeInternal Server Error (System Message)
Data AvailabilityNone (Due to server error)
Information ExtractedNo specific findings (Error encountered)
The research process encountered a critical internal server error. During the attempt to retrieve findings concerning the probability of the US Treasury's OFAC sanctioning a major Ethereum DeFi protocol or the Senate Banking Committee advancing self-custodial wallet controls by year-end 2026, the system indicated an 'Internal Server Error'. This technical issue meant that no actual research findings were successfully retrieved or provided from the intended sources.
No specific data or details could be extracted. As a direct consequence of this system-level error, it was impossible to extract any specific data points, detailed information, or substantive content pertaining to the original query. Therefore, the requested subtitle, table data, and summary paragraphs cannot be generated, as the input exclusively reported an error, precluding any meaningful data extraction or summarization.

9. Why Was Research Data Not Available for This Query?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Data AvailabilityNone
Findings StatusUnavailable
Research retrieval was prevented by an internal server error. The research query aimed to determine the precise schedule and volume of ETH staking withdrawals queued from institutional services like Lido and Coinbase, as well as the Kraken bankruptcy estate, for release in Q2 and Q3 2026, and to assess if this timing coincides with major token unlocks from Arbitrum or Optimism. However, the retrieval process encountered an 'Internal Server Error'. This technical issue prevented the acquisition of any relevant data or findings for the requested topic.
Specific data points could not be extracted as a direct result of this technical impediment. Consequently, no specific information or metrics could be extracted to address the question posed. Due to this technical issue, it is currently impossible to provide key data points or a comprehensive summary of findings regarding ETH staking withdrawals or their correlation with token unlocks.
Further investigation is required for data generation. To generate the requested research output, additional attempts or a thorough investigation into the root cause of the server error would be necessary. Without resolving this technical issue, the required information remains unobtainable.

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Catalyst analysis not available.

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 31, 2027
  • Closes: January 01, 2027

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Catalyst analysis not available.

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 18 markets in this series

Outcomes: 9 resolved YES, 9 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXETHMINY-27JAN01-2500: YES (Jan 31, 2026)
  • KXETHMINY-27JAN01-2250: YES (Feb 02, 2026)
  • KXETHMINY-27JAN01-2000: YES (Feb 05, 2026)
  • KXETHMINY-25DEC31-999.99: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
  • KXETHMINY-25DEC31-3499.99: YES (Aug 01, 2025)