How high will Ethereum get in February?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Ethereum to reach Above $2,500.00 in February, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Internal server errors prevented access to key Ethereum market research data.
- Unexpected positive macroeconomic news could briefly boost Ethereum's market sentiment.
- Substantial capital inflows into US spot Ethereum ETFs signal renewed confidence.
- Favorable crypto legislation progress in major jurisdictions could instill market confidence.
- Ethereum experienced significant price drops during mid-February 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $2,500.00 | 5.0% | 1.5% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| Above $2,750.00 | 2.0% | 1.0% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| Above $3,000.00 | 2.0% | 1.0% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| Above $3,250.00 | 1.0% | 0.5% | Market higher by 0.5pp |
| Above $3,500.00 | 1.0% | 0.5% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
Current Context
Ethereum's price trajectory in February 2026 faces significant bearish pressure. Amidst a volatile market, discussions center on whether Ethereum (ETH) can recover or if further downside is imminent, with sentiment generally cautious. Key developments impacting market fragility include Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin's accelerated ETH sales throughout February 2026, offloading over 8,800 ETH this month, including more than 3,700 ETH in the last three days, valued at approximately $18.45 million [^]. Additionally, Ethereum inflows to Binance have reached their highest level since November 2025, potentially indicating heightened trading activity or selling pressure [^]. The market remains under sustained downside pressure following a February liquidation cascade, stabilizing around the mid-$1,800s, reflecting a cyclical correction rather than a completed bottom [^], [^]. A "structural problem" is also debated, where the success of the 2024 Dencun upgrade in reducing Layer 2 fees inadvertently lowered the mainnet's fee burn rate, thereby weakening a core pillar of ETH's value proposition by reducing supply reduction [^], [^]. Broader macroeconomic influences, such as geopolitical tensions and US tariff concerns, contribute to a general "risk-off" sentiment, reinforcing Ether's classification as a liquidity-sensitive asset [^].
Current data points reveal a challenging technical landscape for Ethereum. As of late February 2026, Ethereum has traded around the $1,900–$3,000 range, with recent stabilization closer to $1,800–$1,900 [^]. Key support levels are identified at $1,700–$1,800, $1,744 (February 6 lows), $1,380–$1,500, and $1,384 (2025 lows); failure to hold the $1,780 area could trigger selling toward $1,700 and potentially deeper supports near $1,500–$1,600 [^], [^]. Significant resistance levels include $1,900–$1,950 (former range floor), $2,000–$2,200, $2,120–$2,150, $2,200–$2,230, $2,450, $2,818, and the psychological barrier of $3,000 [^], [^], [^]. Technical indicators confirm a bearish outlook: ETH is trading below declining 100-day and 200-day moving averages, with the 200-day moving average sloping down since February 19, 2026 [^]. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is depressed near oversold territory, a recent flattening could precede consolidation or a corrective rebound [^], [^]. However, the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicates the current market is not a confirmed bottom, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains firmly negative signaling capital outflow, and the Directional Movement Index (DMI) shows a well-defined downtrend [^], [^].
Expert opinions are divided, ranging from cautious to long-term optimistic. Many analysts, including Pintu News and CCN.com, deemed a return to $3,000 in February "increasingly unrealistic" due to persistent selling pressure and bearish momentum [^], [^]. Shayan Markets noted sustained downside pressure and a cyclical correction for Ethereum, with the price stabilizing around the mid-$1,800s [^]. BeInCrypto and B2BINPAY analysts cautioned against relying on historical February gains due to a lack of immediate growth catalysts [^]. Conversely, Standard Chartered projects Ethereum could end 2026 near $4,000, though they recently lowered their outlook from $7,500, citing DeFi expansion, stablecoins, and institutional adoption [^]. The Motley Fool optimistically predicted Ethereum could more than double in 2026 to reclaim its all-time high near $5,000, driven by a potential shift from "panic-selling" and continued DeFi growth [^]. Crypto analyst Leshka maintains a bullish long-term view, predicting ETH could "3x-4x in the next six months" based on fractal patterns and a brewing supply squeeze [^]. Upcoming events include the Glamsterdam Upgrade in the first half of 2026, aimed at improving gas efficiency, reducing censorship risk, and enhancing decentralization [^], followed by the Heze-Bogota Fork in late 2026 to further improve censorship resistance and privacy [^]. Common concerns revolve around whether ETH will hit $3,000 or higher in February, the impact of Vitalik Buterin's sales, the ongoing "crypto winter" and macroeconomic headwinds, the sustainability of Ethereum's value proposition due to the "structural problem," the risk of further declines, and the effectiveness of future upgrades in overcoming current market pressures.
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has experienced a severe and sustained downward trend, with the probability of Ethereum exceeding $2,500 in February collapsing from a high of 72.0% to a current price of 2.0%. The decline was not gradual but was marked by extreme volatility and several sharp, event-driven drops. A catastrophic 26.0 percentage point drop on February 5 was directly caused by a market-wide liquidation event that pushed Ethereum's price down. This was followed by a brief, powerful relief rally on February 6 that caused an 18.0 percentage point spike as the underlying asset temporarily reclaimed the $2,000 level. However, this recovery was decisively rejected, and a subsequent series of major drops on February 10, 11, and 15 cemented the bearish trend. These later declines were fueled by a persistent negative narrative, including accelerated ETH sales by co-founder Vitalik Buterin and Ethereum's repeated failure to break technical resistance.
The total trading volume of over 155,000 contracts suggests significant market participation and conviction behind the price movements. The chart shows that key probability levels failed to act as support; an attempt to rally back to 30.0% was swiftly reversed, and a later attempt to consolidate around the 19.0%-20.0% level also failed, leading to the current lows. The price action paints a clear picture of market sentiment shifting from initial optimism to overwhelming bearishness. The market has effectively priced in the negative fundamental context, with the current 2.0% probability indicating that participants see virtually no chance of Ethereum reaching the $2,500 target before the month's end.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 February 15, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 20.0% to 12.0%
Outcome: Above $2,500.00
What happened: The 8.0 percentage point drop in the "Above $2,500.00" prediction market for Ethereum on February 15, 2026, was primarily driven by the asset's repeated inability to sustain upward momentum and definitively break resistance levels around $2,000-$2,120 [^]. Despite an intraday rally on February 15, Ethereum failed to hold gains above $2,000, signaling limited buying conviction, compounded by ongoing whale selling observed throughout early February [^]. While social media generally reflected a bearish sentiment for Ethereum leading up to and on this date, no specific influential posts or viral narratives directly caused the prediction market drop; instead, social discussions largely coincided with and reacted to the asset's persistent struggles [^]. Thus, social media was a contributing accelerant, reflecting the underlying market structure weaknesses [^].
📉 February 11, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 19.0% to 9.0%
Outcome: Above $2,500.00
What happened: The 10 percentage point drop in the prediction market for Ethereum reaching "Above $2,500.00" on February 11, 2026, was primarily driven by a broader "risk-off" sentiment across the cryptocurrency market and significant institutional outflows [^]. The total crypto market capitalization fell for a second consecutive day, with altcoins retreating, and U.S.-listed Ethereum ETFs experienced substantial net outflows from February 11 onwards [^]. This generalized market weakness, which also saw concerns surrounding the AI sector weigh on tech and crypto stocks, diminished confidence in Ethereum achieving a higher price target that month [^]. While social media included a positive post from "Merlijn The Trader" on X about policymakers considering Ethereum for a euro stablecoin, this narrative did not align with or mitigate the bearish price movement [^]. Consequently, social media was mostly noise in relation to this specific prediction market price drop [^].
📉 February 10, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 27.0% to 19.0%
Outcome: Above $2,500.00
What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point drop in the "Above $2,500.00" outcome for Ethereum on February 10, 2026, was the acceleration of Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin's ETH sales, which became a prominent negative narrative in the crypto community [^]. Since February 2, Buterin-linked wallets sold over 10,000 ETH, totaling more than $21 million, at an average price near $2,027 [^]. This ongoing and publicly tracked selling activity from such an influential figure coincided with Ethereum's price dropping to approximately $2,020 on February 10 amidst a broader "February 2026 Crypto Crash" and a "Fear & Greed Index" signaling extreme fear [^]. Consequently, social media discussion on platforms like Reddit reflected this bearish sentiment, further reinforcing the unlikelihood of Ethereum sustaining above $2,500 for the remainder of the month [^]. Social media was a contributing accelerant, amplifying the impact of Buterin's sales and the prevailing negative market conditions [^].
📈 February 06, 2026: 18.0pp spike
Price increased from 12.0% to 30.0%
Outcome: Above $2,500.00
What happened: The primary driver of the 18.0 percentage point spike in the "Above $2,500.00" outcome for Ethereum's February price on February 06, 2026, was a broad cryptocurrency market rebound following a major liquidation event [^]. On that day, Ethereum climbed back above $2,000, reaching an intraday high of approximately $2,270, coinciding with Bitcoin's move towards $70,000 after a sharp sell-off where it briefly dipped to $60,000 [^]. This recovery was triggered by a "liquidation wave" that saw nearly $2 billion in crypto liquidations, including over $418 million in Ethereum positions, which cleared leveraged traders and reset derivatives positioning, leading to a subsequent price recovery driven by spot demand [^]. Social media activity did not act as a primary driver, with Ethereum's social dominance noted as low on February 6, despite a potential contrarian buy signal from being mathematically oversold [^].
📉 February 05, 2026: 26.0pp drop
Price decreased from 42.0% to 16.0%
Outcome: Above $2,500.00
What happened: The 26.0 percentage point drop in the "Above $2,500.00" prediction market for Ethereum on February 05, 2026, was primarily driven by a significant actual price decline of Ethereum and a prevailing bearish market sentiment, rather than specific social media activity [^]. On February 5, Ethereum experienced one of its sharpest drawdowns of the year, trading near $2,111 and closing at $1,826.72, representing a nearly 15% daily loss [^]. This price crash, coupled with negative analyst reports indicating a firm downtrend and low odds of reclaiming $3,000, severely diminished market confidence in Ethereum reaching $2,500 within the month [^]. Social media activity, while spreading "fear-based narratives" that day, appeared to coincide with and amplify the market's reaction to these fundamental price movements and institutional deleveraging, rather than leading the initial drop [^]. Social media was a contributing accelerant, spreading fear-based narratives, but the primary drivers were the actual significant decline in Ethereum's spot price and traditional market factors [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The provided page content, "How high will Ethereum get in February? Odds & Predictions," does not contain the specific rules for what triggers a YES or NO resolution, key dates/deadlines, or any special settlement conditions for this Kalshi market. This information would typically be found in the market's detailed contract specifications.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $2,500.00 | $0.05 | $0.97 | 5% |
| Above $2,750.00 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Above $3,000.00 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| Above $3,250.00 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above $3,500.00 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above $3,750.00 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above $4,000.00 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Above $4,250.00 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Discussions and debates regarding Ethereum's potential price in February 2026 were largely characterized by a cautious to bearish short-term outlook, contrasted with more optimistic long-term predictions for the year and beyond [^]. Many analysts indicated that a swift return to the $3,000 level in February was unlikely, citing negative capital outflows and weak momentum from a significant January drawdown where Ethereum lost nearly 7% [^]. Technical indicators like MACD and RSI signaled a corrective bounce rather than a bullish reversal, with sellers largely in control [^]. Prediction markets on February 24, 2026, reflected this sentiment, showing very low probabilities for Ethereum to hit prices above $2,800, with higher odds placed on prices remaining below $2,600 or even dropping to $1,600 or lower [^].
5. What Information Was Found During Research Execution?
| Research Outcome | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Retrieved | None |
An 'Internal Server Error' prevented research query execution. The research query encountered an 'Internal Server Error' during its execution, indicating a critical system-level issue. This technical problem directly prevented the successful retrieval of any information or findings related to the initial research question regarding the destination of ETH sold by Vitalik Buterin-linked wallets.
Consequently, no specific data or insights were generated. As a direct result of this error, the system was unable to process the request to gather the necessary content, meaning no specific data points, summaries, or insights could be produced.
6. Why Was Research Data Not Available Due to an Internal Error?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | No data extracted (System Error) |
| Information Provided | None (Error encountered) |
The analysis concerning the cumulative net ETH flow on Binance and Coinbase for the remainder of February could not be processed due to an internal server error. This technical issue prevented the system from accessing or generating any relevant findings or data points that would typically be presented.
Consequently, no specific data or findings are available. As a direct consequence of this technical problem, no specific data, metrics, or detailed summaries are available for the requested question. The system was unable to retrieve any information to fulfill the request, resulting in the response containing placeholder information indicating the error rather than substantive research content. Further attempts to retrieve information may be necessary once the underlying server issue is resolved.
7. Why Was Research On This Question Unsuccessful?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Citations Found | 0 |
The research attempt encountered an internal server error. During the process of addressing the requested question concerning liquidation heatmaps and concentrations of leveraged long or short liquidation liquidity, the system experienced an 'Internal Server Error.' This technical issue specifically indicated a failure in the data retrieval process from the sources, preventing the extraction of any specific findings or metrics related to the query.
No data, figures, or information could be gathered. Consequently, due to this unsuccessful data retrieval, no relevant data points, statistical figures, or specific textual information could be collected. The absence of successful research output means there are no key findings or metrics to present in a table or detailed paragraphs regarding the concentration of liquidations below $1,744 or above $2,150 for end-of-February expiring contracts.
8. Why Was Research Unable to Retrieve Current Data?
| Research Status | Internal Server Error |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | Unavailable due to error |
| Action Required | System review needed |
Research on ETH burn rate post-Dencun encountered a system error. The research process for evaluating how institutional reports address the reduced ETH burn rate post-Dencun resulted in an 'Internal Server Error'. This technical failure indicates an issue within the system responsible for gathering or processing the requested information.
No specific data or analytical summaries were retrievable. As a direct consequence of this system error, no actual findings related to the original query could be retrieved. Therefore, the system was unable to generate any specific data points, statistics, or analytical summaries to answer the question.
9. What Was the Outcome of the Research Request?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | No specific data points retrieved |
| Key Findings | Not applicable due to research error |
An internal server error prevented the research request's completion. The research request encountered a system issue that prevented the access or retrieval of any specific information or data related to the queried question regarding the 25-delta skew for the February 28 ETH options expiry. Consequently, no research findings could be generated or summarized at this time.
The error made it impossible to gather specific data. Due to the server error, the system was unable to extract any key data points, identify relevant sources, or formulate detailed paragraphs outlining research outcomes. The inability to process the request to completion means no factual content could be provided for reporting.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Ethereum's price in the final days of February 2026 could see a brief upward push from unexpected positive macroeconomic news, such as improved global economic data or de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, which could temporarily shift market sentiment away from "risk-off" [^] . A surprising and substantial influx of capital into US spot Ethereum ETFs, reversing the current trend of net outflows, would signal renewed institutional confidence [^]. Additionally, rapid, positive progress on favorable crypto legislation in a major jurisdiction could instill market confidence [^].
Conversely, several bearish catalysts could push prices lower. Continued deterioration of global economic indicators, sustained geopolitical uncertainty, or intensified pressure from tariff discussions could exacerbate the current "risk-off" sentiment [^]. Persistent net outflows from US spot Ethereum ETFs would reinforce bearish sentiment and liquidity drain [^]. A critical factor is whether Ethereum breaks below key technical support levels, such as $1,800 or $1,750, which could trigger further selling pressure [^]. Furthermore, a major security exploit or hack on the Ethereum network or a prominent decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol, or continued selling of ETH by prominent figures, could severely impact trust and price [^].
Given the very narrow window until the March 1, 2026 settlement date, major pre-scheduled events with direct and immediate price impact are unlikely to emerge as fresh news. Instead, the market will primarily react to the continuation or sudden reversal of current trends, daily market sentiment, macroeconomic news releases, and real-time reports on cryptocurrency ETF flows [^]. The period from February 25-29, 2026, will be critical, as the market is currently characterized by "Extreme Fear" and weak technicals, with Ethereum testing significant support levels [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 08, 2026
- Closes: March 01, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Ethereum's price in the final days of February 2026 could see a brief upward push from unexpected positive macroeconomic news, such as improved global economic data or de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, which could temporarily shift market sentiment away from "risk-off" [^] .
- Trigger: A surprising and substantial influx of capital into US spot Ethereum ETFs, reversing the current trend of net outflows, would signal renewed institutional confidence [^] .
- Trigger: Additionally, rapid, positive progress on favorable crypto legislation in a major jurisdiction could instill market confidence [^] .
- Trigger: Conversely, several bearish catalysts could push prices lower.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 8 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 8 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26JAN31-5250: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
- KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26JAN31-5000: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
- KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26JAN31-4750: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
- KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26JAN31-4500: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
- KXETHMAXMON-ETH-26JAN31-4250: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
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