How high will Ethereum get in 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Ethereum to get above $3,500.00 in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Internal server errors prevented all grounded research on Ethereum's future.
- Octagon analysis could not identify any key catalysts driving Ethereum's price.
- Ethereum market recently showed two substantial drops in overall sentiment.
- Octagon model aligns perfectly with current market sentiment for Ethereum.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $6,000.00 | 11.0% | 9.5% | Major institutional investment and successful scaling upgrades drive substantial price appreciation. |
| Above $5,000.00 | 14.0% | 13.5% | Widespread DApp adoption and a favorable macroeconomic climate support this valuation. |
| Above $3,500.00 | 36.0% | 33.5% | Steady network activity and modest institutional interest maintain an upward price trend. |
| Above $4,750.00 | 14.0% | 14.5% | Increased enterprise adoption and ongoing protocol improvements lead to significant market growth. |
| Above $4,500.00 | 23.0% | 19.5% | Positive regulatory developments and network utility expansion fuel this price target. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market, which speculates on Ethereum reaching a peak of at least $6,000 in 2026, has demonstrated a clear and sustained downward trend. The price began at a 15.0% probability and has since decayed to its current level of 9.0%. The entire price history is contained within a relatively narrow range of 7.0% to 19.0%, indicating that while sentiment has consistently weakened, there have been no extreme shifts or periods of high volatility. The overall price action reflects a steady erosion of market confidence in Ethereum achieving this price target within the specified timeframe.
Given that no external context on news or developments was provided, it is not possible to attribute the steady price decline to any specific causal events. The price action appears to be a gradual sentiment shift rather than a reaction to a single catalyst. In terms of market structure, the historical low of 7.0% has acted as a key support level, while the high of 19.0% has served as resistance. The market is currently trading near its all-time lows, suggesting traders are testing this support. The total traded volume of 139,756 contracts indicates significant liquidity and participation, suggesting the prevailing downward trend is backed by a reasonable degree of market conviction. The chart suggests that market participants have become progressively more skeptical over time about the likelihood of a $6,000 Ethereum peak in 2026.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 February 05, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 43.0% to 32.0%
Outcome: Above $3,500.00
What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}
📉 January 31, 2026: 18.0pp drop
Price decreased from 70.0% to 52.0%
Outcome: Above $3,500.00
What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided page content, there is insufficient information to determine the specific triggers for YES/NO resolution, key dates/deadlines, or any special settlement conditions for this market. The content only states the market's title ("How high will Ethereum get this year? Odds & Predictions 2026") and market ID.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $3,500.00 | $0.36 | $0.65 | 36% |
| Above $3,750.00 | $0.31 | $0.70 | 31% |
| Above $4,000.00 | $0.25 | $0.78 | 25% |
| Above $4,250.00 | $0.25 | $0.76 | 25% |
| Above $4,500.00 | $0.23 | $0.80 | 23% |
| Above $4,750.00 | $0.14 | $0.87 | 14% |
| Above $5,000.00 | $0.14 | $0.87 | 14% |
| Above $6,000.00 | $0.11 | $0.90 | 11% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Why Did Research on This Question Fail?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Availability | None |
Research into cumulative net inflows for US-based spot Ethereum ETFs could not be completed. An internal server error occurred during the process, indicating a problem within the server's operation. This issue prevented the successful execution of the research, rather than a fault with the query itself.
Consequently, no specific findings or data points are currently available. The system was unable to retrieve or process any relevant information regarding future spot Ethereum ETF inflows. Therefore, it is impossible to provide an answer comparing these potential inflows to those of spot Bitcoin ETFs following their January 2024 launch.
6. Why Was Researching This Question Unsuccessful?
| Research Outcome | Internal Server Error (System) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | No data found (System) |
| Information Extraction | Unsuccessful (System) |
Research on Ethereum L2s versus Solana was technically impeded. The research process, aimed at assessing whether the combined daily active users (DAU) and Total Value Locked (TVL) on Ethereum's top three Layer 2 networks (Arbitrum, Optimism, Base) would show a growth rate exceeding Solana's by Q4 2025, encountered a critical technical issue. An "Internal Server Error" occurred, which prevented the successful retrieval of any relevant information or findings necessary for this analysis.
No data or insights were extracted due to the error. Consequently, the underlying content required for the research was unavailable due to this system error. This technical malfunction meant that no specific data points or detailed insights could be extracted. Therefore, the requested summary and any potential data points for the growth rate comparison could not be populated with actual research results.
7. What Was the Outcome of the Research Query?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Citation Count | 0 |
The research query encountered a critical system error, preventing data retrieval. The internal server error during the data collection process made it impossible to retrieve any specific findings or data points regarding the percentage of total circulating ETH supply locked in staking and liquid restaking protocols, such as EigenLayer, by the end of 2025, or its impact on exchange-held 'liquid' supply. This indicates a system-level issue that precluded gathering information for the requested topic.
No findings, statistics, or citations were obtained due to this technical difficulty. Consequently, no relevant information, statistics, or citations could be extracted. Therefore, a summary of key findings, along with supporting data and inline citations, cannot be provided at this time.
8. Why Did the Research Query Encounter an Error?
| Research Outcome | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Retrieved | None available |
| Recommendation | Please retry query later |
Research findings could not be generated due to a technical server error. The research request, concerning whether the U.S. Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate will be below 3.5% at any point during 2025, signaling a decisive pivot to monetary easing and increased global liquidity for risk assets, could not be processed successfully. An internal server error prevented the system from accessing or compiling any relevant information or findings for the specified question.
No analytical insights or data were produced by the system. Consequently, no data points, summaries, or analytical insights could be generated from the query. It is recommended to re-attempt the research request after a brief waiting period, as these types of technical issues are often temporary system anomalies.
9. Research Failed: Internal Server Error Encountered?
| Research Outcome | Internal Server Error |
|---|---|
| Data Retrieved | None |
| Findings Available | Not Applicable |
Research process encountered server error, preventing data retrieval. An internal server error occurred during the research process, which critically prevented the retrieval of any specific findings or data points for the requested question. The query concerned the projected mainnet launch quarter for the 'Verkle Trees' implementation and its successful deployment without major consensus bugs by the end of Q2 2026, according to Ethereum core developer consensus and public roadmaps.
No specific findings or insights could be generated. Consequently, due to the complete inability to retrieve any relevant information or data, no summary could be formed, nor could any analytical insights be provided based on the specified research question.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis not available.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 31, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis not available.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 17 markets in this series
Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 13 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXETHMAXY-25DEC31-6999.99: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
- KXETHMAXY-25DEC31-6749.99: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
- KXETHMAXY-25DEC31-6499.99: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
- KXETHMAXY-25DEC31-6249.99: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
- KXETHMAXY-25DEC31-5999.99: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.
