Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Ethereum to get Above $3,750.00 in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- US Spot Ethereum ETFs project strong growth and significant future inflows.
- Markets anticipate significant Federal Reserve monetary policy easing in 2026.
- Ethereum Layer 2 ecosystem projects substantial Total Value Locked growth.
- Glamsterdam Fork in mid-2026 boosts transaction processing and gas limits.
- Ethereum options indicate strong long-term bullish sentiment through 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $6,000.00 | 10% | 0.5% | The analysis concludes the market is over-weighting the bearish sentiment from the recent historic deleveraging event while under-appreciating its cathartic effect, which has reset market structure for a more fundamentally-driven recovery. |
| Above $5,000.00 | 15% | 0% | A Grade A weight was assigned to recent, severe negative evidence (market-wide deleveraging, DeFi exploit, technical breakdown), causing a significant negative logit-shift that overrode the stable on-chain metrics, which formed the basis of the bilateral conflict. |
| Above $4,750.00 | 23% | 0.1% | The logit-shift reflects a Grade B evidence update, driven by a major deleveraging event and severe technical damage that reinforces the market's low probability, despite resilient on-chain fundamentals providing the primary counterargument. |
| Above $4,500.00 | 22% | 23.5% | Model higher by 1.5pp |
| Above $3,500.00 | 41% | 0.3% | The initial market probability was adjusted downward using a Grade B (Strong) evidence weight, reflecting the severe impact of the recent market-wide deleveraging event and CrossCurve exploit, which overrides the bullish counterargument of resilient on-chain fundamentals. |
Current Context
Ethereum faces extreme fear amid a significant recent market downturn, with its price falling by almost 23.89% in the past week. As of early February 2026, Ethereum (ETH) is fluctuating around $2,204.26 to $2,273.45. This sharp drop is largely attributed to a market-wide deleveraging event triggered by Bitcoin's steep weekend fall, which caused over $5.42 billion in liquidations across major altcoins like ETH. Additionally, a $3 million CrossCurve bridge exploit has reignited concerns about decentralized finance (DeFi) security, further impacting sentiment. Technically, ETH is trading well below all major Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which now act as resistance, and the MACD histogram is deeply negative, confirming bearish momentum. Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish, with 87% bearish and 13% bullish sentiment, and the Fear & Greed Index at 14 indicates "Extreme Fear". Despite the short-term struggles, Ethereum's market capitalization remains robust near $375-$380 billion, with healthy trading volume and stable on-chain reserves and netflows. Key resistance levels are identified around $2,800-$3,000, while crucial support zones are around $2,000-$2,500. On-chain data also shows daily transaction volume up 20% month-to-month and active addresses up 50%, with whales steadily accumulating 105.16 million ETH.
Experts offer mixed Ethereum outlooks, ranging from bearish short-term to positive long-term projections. Most immediate analyses for February 2026 indicate a bearish short-term outlook, with ChatGPT predicting ETH could reach $2,100 and Claude being even more bearish for the month. CoinCodex, as of February 1, 2026, predicted ETH to reach $2,685.26 by February 6, 2026, but also noted overall bearish sentiment. A Kaiko research analyst expects a bear market to continue for another six to nine months, though potentially less severe than previous drawdowns due to positive regulatory developments. Conversely, many experts maintain a positive long-term outlook for Ethereum, citing its strong functionality, established reputation, and consistent updates. Some crypto traders even believe Ethereum could reach $10,000 this year (2026), although prediction markets suggest a lower probability, giving Ethereum only a 17% chance of reclaiming the $5,000 level in 2026. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has cautioned against excessive ETH optimism, emphasizing the need for structural strength verification. Previous bullish forecasts from October 2025 by deVere Group projected Ether to exceed $5,000 in 2026, with some forecasts suggesting growth to $6,400-$6,700 by mid-2026 and over $7,000 by year-end. Key upcoming events that could influence the market in 2026 include the Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) from March 30 – April 2, Token2049 Dubai from April 29–30, and DevCon from November 3-6.
Persistent questions address Ethereum's price trajectory, market bottom, and ecosystem challenges. The overarching question remains "How high will Ethereum get in 2026?", with discussions ranging from hitting $10,000 to potential further drops below $2,000. Investors are also questioning whether Ethereum has found a bottom or if further downside is expected in February 2026. Ongoing concerns about DeFi security and exploits persist, particularly following recent incidents like the CrossCurve bridge exploit. Despite past upgrades, issues of scalability and high gas fees during peak times remain a point of discussion. Regulatory uncertainty, including the impact of potential new regulations on staking and DeFi protocols, and Ethereum's classification as a commodity or security, is a significant concern that could introduce market volatility. The threat from faster and cheaper alternative blockchains, such as Solana, Aptos, and Sui, continues to be debated, as is the overall relevance and impact of Layer 2 solutions on Ethereum's core value proposition.
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market, which gauges the probability of Ethereum's maximum price reaching or exceeding $6000 in 2026, has demonstrated a sustained bearish trend since its inception. The price has fallen by more than half, from an opening probability of 23.0% to its current level of 11.0%. This long-term decline in confidence has been sharply exacerbated by recent real-world events. The significant drop in ETH's spot price, fueled by a market-wide deleveraging event and security concerns from the CrossCurve exploit, directly corresponds with the accelerated sell-off in this market. As the underlying asset's value moved further away from the $6000 target, traders adjusted their expectations downward, reflecting the "extreme fear" and negative technical momentum impacting the broader crypto space.
The total trading volume of 135,114 contracts indicates a liquid market where the price trend is supported by significant participant conviction. The chart has established a clear historical price range, with the 23.0% level acting as a firm resistance or a ceiling of optimism, and the 7.0% price point serving as a potential support level where sentiment previously bottomed out. The current 11.0% probability sits at a key psychological point, representing a significant loss of faith from the market's peak. Overall, the price action paints a picture of deeply pessimistic market sentiment, suggesting that participants are increasingly doubtful that Ethereum will achieve the $6000 milestone within the 2026 resolution period, given the current bearish market conditions.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above $5,000.00
📉 February 04, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 18.0% to 9.0%
What happened: The 9.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for Ethereum reaching "Above $5,000.00" in 2026 on February 4, 2026, was primarily driven by a significant decline in Ethereum's actual price and a broader cryptocurrency market downturn. Ethereum (ETH) fell 6.81% to $2125.33 on that day, marking a 9.15% drop over two consecutive days, alongside over $2 billion in market liquidations and institutional outflows across the crypto space. While not the primary driver, a post by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin on X on February 4, 2026, at 6:57 AM EST, questioning the security inheritance of many Layer 2 solutions and calling for a "reset" in Ethereum's scaling strategy, likely acted as a contributing accelerant by adding uncertainty to the network's future. Therefore, social media was a contributing accelerant, amplifying existing market concerns.
Outcome: Above $3,500.00
📉 February 01, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 53.0% to 45.0%
What happened: The 8.0 percentage point drop in the "Above $3,500.00" outcome for Ethereum on February 1, 2026, was primarily driven by a broader cryptocurrency market deleveraging event, characterized by macro caution, institutional rebalancing, and significant futures liquidations. Ethereum experienced a 9.84% price plunge to $2,428.77 that day, with approximately $961 million in ETH futures liquidations contributing to the downturn. Coinciding with this market movement, social media platforms like Reddit's r/ethereum saw a surge in extremely bearish sentiment, including discussions about Ethereum's "fair value" being around $500, indicating panic and contributing as an accelerant to the prevailing fear. While influential, Vitalik Buterin's critical comments on Ethereum's Layer 2 roadmap appeared two days later, on February 3, 2026, and thus did not initiate this specific price drop. In conclusion, social media was a contributing accelerant, reflecting widespread market fear and exacerbating selling pressure, but not the primary driver.
📉 January 31, 2026: 17.0pp drop
Price decreased from 70.0% to 53.0%
What happened: The 17.0 percentage point drop in the Ethereum prediction market "Above $3,500.00" on January 31, 2026, was primarily driven by a combination of traditional news and significant market structure factors. The immediate catalyst was a major "capitulation event" characterized by massive liquidations and forced selling across derivatives exchanges, with Ethereum alone experiencing $1.1 billion in liquidations. This market turmoil was exacerbated by broader macroeconomic concerns, including global uncertainty around interest rates and news of a new US Federal Reserve leadership appointment, which heightened fears of a "tighter for longer" monetary policy. While social media discussions on platforms like Reddit reflected widespread fear and concerns about leverage during this period, there is no indication of specific posts from influential figures leading the price drop; instead, social media activity largely coincided with and reacted to the unfolding market events. Therefore, social media was a contributing accelerant, amplifying sentiment rather than being the primary cause of the initial sharp decline.
📉 January 29, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 78.0% to 69.0%
What happened: The prediction market's 9.0 percentage point drop for "Ethereum above $3,500.00 in 2026" on January 29, 2026, was primarily driven by a broader cryptocurrency market downturn. On that day, Ethereum's price dropped below $2,900, following a significant 6.4% plunge in Bitcoin which was attributed to over $1.1 billion in weekly ETF outflows and a general shift of capital to precious metals. While not the initiating cause, social media activity, such as a post from "Aporia (@0xaporia)" on X on January 29, lamenting a "5% down" and calling it a "DISASTER" due to community concerns and lack of developer response, coincided with the price decline. This influential social media post amplified the negative sentiment surrounding Ethereum's future prospects. Social media was a contributing accelerant, reflecting and intensifying the market's reaction to fundamental price action and broader market weakness.
Outcome: Above $4,500.00
📉 January 20, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 51.0% to 41.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 10.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for Ethereum reaching "Above $4,500.00" by 2026 on January 20, 2026, was a significant downturn in the broader cryptocurrency market, leading to a collapse in market sentiment and a sharp decline in Ethereum's spot price. On January 20, 2026, Ethereum crashed below the psychologically important $3,000 support level, intensifying bearish momentum after failing to breach the $3,400 resistance level in previous weeks. This price drop was accompanied by the Crypto Fear and Greed Index falling to 24 by January 21, 2026, indicating "extreme fear" in the market, a stark contrast to the "greed" sentiment just a week prior. While specific influential social media posts directly causing the prediction market drop on January 20 are not explicitly identified, the overall negative market sentiment, exacerbated by a widespread "risk-off" environment due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic trade policies, coincided with and amplified the decline in the prediction market. This suggests that the decline in market confidence for Ethereum reaching above $4,500 was a direct reflection of the deteriorating spot price and prevailing "extreme fear" in the crypto market at that time. Social media activity, while not pinpointed as a singular, leading driver by a specific influential post, contributed as a "contributing accelerant" to the broader negative sentiment. Reports from January 20, 2026, already mentioned "scam" concerns driving an 8% plunge in Ethereum over the weekend, indicating existing negative narratives spreading. By January 26, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which incorporates social media hype as a factor, had further dropped to 20, signifying intensified "extreme fear". This suggests that while no single "smoking gun" social media post led the drop, the cumulative negative sentiment and news of a falling price on social platforms likely accelerated the prediction market's decline. In conclusion, traditional news and market structure factors were the primary drivers, with social media acting as a contributing accelerant. The significant drop in Ethereum's spot price below $3,000, driven by broader market conditions and technical breakdowns, directly impacted confidence in the long-term price target.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided page content, the specific rules for YES/NO resolution, key dates/deadlines, and special settlement conditions are not available. The market title "How high will Ethereum get this year? Odds & Predictions 2026" indicates the topic and relevant year (2026), but no further details for settlement are provided in this extract.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above $3,500.00 | $0.41 | $0.61 | 41% |
| Above $3,750.00 | $0.34 | $0.69 | 34% |
| Above $4,000.00 | $0.26 | $0.79 | 26% |
| Above $4,750.00 | $0.23 | $0.78 | 23% |
| Above $4,250.00 | $0.22 | $0.85 | 22% |
| Above $4,500.00 | $0.22 | $0.79 | 22% |
| Above $5,000.00 | $0.15 | $0.88 | 15% |
| Above $6,000.00 | $0.10 | $0.91 | 10% |
Market Discussion
Debates surrounding Ethereum's 2026 price highlight a split between bullish long-term projections driven by institutional adoption and tokenization, and more cautious short-term outlooks influenced by macroeconomic factors and current bearish technical indicators . Many experts predict Ethereum could reach between $3,000 and $4,000 on average, with some highly optimistic forecasts ranging from $7,000 to $25,000, citing its growing role as global infrastructure and increasing ETF inflows . Conversely, others anticipate continued volatility and potential downsides, with technical analysis suggesting a possible drop towards $1,665-$1,725 in early 2026 due to prevailing selling pressure and macroeconomic headwinds.
5. What are US Spot Ethereum ETF Inflow Projections to Q3 2026?
| Current ETH ETF Inflows | ~$12 billion (as of Feb 2026) |
|---|---|
| Projected ETH ETF Inflows (Q3 2026) | $19.5 billion to $27 billion (by Sep 30, 2026) |
| 2024 Bitcoin ETF Inflows | ~$35–36 billion (2024) |
US spot Ethereum ETFs show strong initial growth and significant future potential. Since their launch in July 2024, US-based spot Ethereum ETFs accumulated approximately $12 billion in cumulative net inflows as of February 2026. Projections indicate that these cumulative net inflows are expected to increase substantially, reaching a range of $19.5 billion to $27 billion by the end of Q3 2026.
Ethereum ETFs demonstrate strong comparative performance against Bitcoin's initial success. For comparison, the inaugural year of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 saw total cumulative net inflows of approximately $35–36 billion. After 19 months, Ethereum ETFs have already captured about 33–34% of Bitcoin's first-year inflows, which meets or exceeds pre-launch expectations for their relative market capture.
Several factors drive sustained investor demand for spot Ethereum ETFs. This includes reduced institutional friction in the market following the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, along with Ethereum's distinct technological advantages. These drivers encompass its potential for staking yield and deflationary supply dynamics through EIP-1559. Furthermore, the growth of its ecosystem and Layer 2 networks positions ETH as a key diversification asset for sophisticated investors.
6. What Federal Reserve Rate Changes Do Markets Expect in 2026?
| Expected 2026 Rate Cuts | Approximately 50 basis points total (two 25-basis-point cuts) |
|---|---|
| Probability of September Easing | 85.4% chance of at least one 25-basis-point cut by September 2026 |
| Most Probable September Cut | 25-basis-point cut (36.4% probability) or 50-basis-point cut (33.2% probability) |
Markets strongly anticipate significant Federal Reserve monetary policy easing in 2026. As of early February 2026, futures markets indicate an 85.4% cumulative probability of at least one 25-basis-point cut by the September 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The most probable individual outcomes for this meeting are a 25-basis-point reduction (36.4% probability) or a 50-basis-point cumulative reduction (33.2% probability). For the full 2026 calendar year, markets imply approximately two 25-basis-point cuts, totaling 50 basis points. This market stance is notably more dovish than the FOMC's own projection of a single 25-basis-point cut.
Moderating inflation and resilient growth underpin these market expectations. The market's anticipation of easing is influenced by an interplay of moderating inflation and robust economic growth. Recent data shows the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 2.7% year-over-year, supporting calls for policy normalization. Despite strong projected U.S. economic growth of 2.0%-2.5% in 2026, which typically argues against aggressive stimulus, the market appears to be pricing in 'insurance' cuts to sustain a 'soft landing'. This perspective contrasts with divergent forecasts suggesting inflation could remain sticky around 3% and new tariffs potentially adding 1% to overall inflation. Ultimately, this creates a notable divergence between market expectations and the Federal Reserve's more cautious guidance.
7. What are Ethereum L2s' projected TVL and transaction dominance by July 2026?
| Projected Aggregated L2 TVL (July 2026) | $55-65 billion |
|---|---|
| Projected Arbitrum TVL (July 2026) | $22-26 billion |
| Current Aggregated L2 TVS (February 2026) | ~$38.81 billion |
Ethereum's Layer 2 ecosystem anticipates substantial Total Value Locked growth by July 2026. The aggregated Total Value Locked (TVL) across top L2s is projected to reach $55-65 billion by July 2026. This builds upon a current Total Value Locked of approximately $38.81 billion as of February 2026. Market leaders like Arbitrum and Base currently hold $16.12 billion and $11.00 billion respectively. Individual L2s are also expected to see significant expansion, with Arbitrum projected to reach $22-26 billion and Base $16-20 billion by the same period, driven by market recovery, technological maturation, and adoption in high-growth sectors.
L2 transaction volume significantly exceeds Ethereum's Layer 1, reaching high ratios. The aggregated L2 to Layer 1 transaction ratio has already surpassed the 10:1 benchmark, reaching as high as 19:1 by November 2025. This acceleration was largely enabled by the Dencun upgrade in March 2024, which introduced Proto-Danksharding (EIP-4844) and reduced L2 transaction costs by 90-99% compared to L1, significantly boosting throughput capacity. With individual networks like Base routinely processing 100-300 transactions per second (TPS) and the long-term Ethereum roadmap envisioning L2s absorbing over 99% of total transaction activity, the L2:L1 transaction ratio is expected to continue expanding, potentially reaching 30:1 or higher by July 2026.
Ethereum's price trajectory strongly influences the L2 ecosystem's projected expansion. The growth of the L2 ecosystem is intrinsically linked to Ethereum's (ETH) price, forming a reflexive flywheel. A rising ETH price directly inflates the USD-denominated TVL on L2s and fosters a 'wealth effect,' encouraging increased capital deployment into on-chain activities primarily hosted on L2s. Furthermore, high L1 gas fees during bull markets serve as a powerful economic catalyst, driving user migration to cheaper L2s. Therefore, a bullish resolution for ETH price in 2026 would strongly support the achievement, and likely the surpassing, of the projected $55-65 billion aggregate TVL and further expansion of the L2:L1 transaction ratio.
8. What Are Ethereum's Projected Supply and Staking Trends for 2026?
| Net Annualized Inflation/Deflation (Q2/Q3 2026) | +0.3% to +0.7% (inflation) or -0.2% to 0% (deflation) |
|---|---|
| Projected Staking Participation Rate (Q2/Q3 2026) | Surpass 35% |
| ETH Currently Staked (Early 2026) | Over 36.6 million ETH (30-31% of total) |
Ethereum's supply rate for 2026 is projected to vary significantly. For Q2 and Q3 2026, the net annualized inflation/deflation rate of ETH supply is anticipated to range from mild inflation (+0.3% to +0.7%) under baseline network activity to a neutral or slightly deflationary state (-0.2% to 0%) during periods of high network demand. This dynamic, central to the "Ultrasound Money" thesis, hinges on the balance between ETH issuance for validators and the burning mechanism, which is primarily fueled by transaction fees and Layer 2 (L2) blob fees. Achieving a neutral supply change requires a sustained average base fee of 15-17 gwei, with network activity being the primary determinant of whether the monetary policy is low-inflationary or deflationary.
Staking participation is set to exceed 35% of total ETH supply. The percentage of total ETH supply locked in all staking protocols, including liquid staking on Lido, is forecast to exceed 35% in mid-2026, representing an increase from the current 30-31%. This growth is primarily driven by accelerating institutional adoption, exemplified by initiatives like BlackRock's iShares Staked Ethereum Trust, and the ongoing maturity of liquid staking derivatives (LSDs). A higher staking rate contributes to enhanced network security, making a 51% attack economically prohibitive, and significantly reduces the liquid supply of ETH available on exchanges.
These combined factors could create a significant ETH supply shock. The potential for net deflationary supply dynamics, coupled with an increasing illiquid supply due to growing staking participation, is expected to create a powerful "supply shock" that could amplify price movements. This anticipated scarcity, combined with the "Scalability enables ultrasound" thesis, where L2 solutions drive aggregate fee burn on Layer 1, positions Ethereum's economics favorably. Should increased demand align with these supply-side contractions, conditions may be conducive for significant price appreciation.
9. What is the Ethereum Derivatives Outlook for 2026?
| Projected Dec 2026 ETH Options Open Interest | $300 million to $800 million (contingent on ETH spot price $3,000-$6,000) |
|---|---|
| Projected Dec 2026 Put/Call Ratio | 0.65 to 0.85 |
| Total ETH Options Open Interest (Deribit) | $4.55 billion (1.99 million contracts) |
Ethereum options indicate strong long-term bullish sentiment through 2026. The notional open interest for December 2026 ETH options on Deribit is anticipated to range from $300 million to $800 million, contingent on an ETH spot price between $3,000 and $6,000. Simultaneously, the put/call ratio for the same expiry is expected to remain in a bullish regime, likely between 0.65 and 0.85, reflecting sustained institutional demand for upside exposure and sophisticated hedging strategies. This robust outlook is largely driven by increasing institutional capital, aligning with an estimated compound annual growth rate of 80% to 100%+ in ETH options OI from 2023 to 2026.
Futures term structure projects persistent contango, reinforcing a positive outlook. The Ethereum futures curve is forecast to exhibit persistent and steep contango throughout Q2 and Q3 of 2026, which suggests a strong market expectation of future price appreciation. This is underpinned by high leverage and bullish positioning observed in late 2025 and early 2026, along with anticipated supply/demand imbalances. Significant institutional capital inflows serve as primary catalysts, including over $2.2 billion into Ethereum ETFs in Q3 2025 and CME ETH futures open interest reaching $10 billion by August 2025. These factors drive robust derivatives activity and overall market maturation.
Combined indicators signal sustained bullish long-term sentiment for Ethereum. The collective strength of growing long-dated options open interest, a bullish put/call ratio, and persistent futures contango unequivocally points towards a strong and sustained bullish long-term sentiment for Ethereum through 2026. This trend is a clear sign of the increasing institutionalization of the asset class. However, macroeconomic factors and unforeseen protocol-level issues are acknowledged risks that could influence this trajectory.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Ethereum's price trajectory in 2026 will be significantly influenced by major network upgrades and increasing institutional adoption. Bullish catalysts include the Glamsterdam Fork by mid-2026, aiming to dramatically boost transaction processing and gas limits, and the Heze-Bogota Fork in late 2026, focused on privacy and decentralization. Ongoing L1 improvements like PeerDAS are also expected to reduce L2 costs and enable targeted gas limit increases. Furthermore, a substantial increase in crypto Exchange Traded Product (ETP) approvals in 2026, driven by new U.S. SEC standards and successful Spot Ether ETF launches, is anticipated to bring significant institutional capital, with some predictions forecasting a five-fold growth in tokenized assets to nearly $100 billion. Macroeconomic tailwinds such as falling interest rates and a potential 'liquidity-driven supercycle' could also shift capital towards Ethereum.
Conversely, several bearish factors could dampen market sentiment. Regulatory uncertainty remains a key concern, with potential challenges from the SEC regarding market manipulation and investor protection for Ethereum ETFs, and the risk of unfavorable legislation or the failure of acts like the CLARITY Act. The expansion of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) globally could also create a 'decentralized-centralized bifurcation' in digital money standards, impacting decentralized cryptocurrencies. Macroeconomic headwinds like persistent inflation, geopolitical turmoil, and a tight liquidity environment could reduce risk appetite. Additionally, network risks, such as slower-than-anticipated decentralization of Layer 2 solutions, stablecoin destabilization, or increased illicit activity, could lead to heightened scrutiny and negative market sentiment.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 31, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Ethereum's price trajectory in 2026 will be significantly influenced by major network upgrades and increasing institutional adoption.
- Trigger: Bullish catalysts include the Glamsterdam Fork by mid-2026, aiming to dramatically boost transaction processing and gas limits, and the Heze-Bogota Fork in late 2026, focused on privacy and decentralization [^] .
- Trigger: Ongoing L1 improvements like PeerDAS are also expected to reduce L2 costs and enable targeted gas limit increases.
- Trigger: Furthermore, a substantial increase in crypto Exchange Traded Product (ETP) approvals in 2026, driven by new U.S.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 17 markets in this series
Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 13 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXETHMAXY-25DEC31-6999.99: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
- KXETHMAXY-25DEC31-6749.99: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
- KXETHMAXY-25DEC31-6499.99: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
- KXETHMAXY-25DEC31-6249.99: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
- KXETHMAXY-25DEC31-5999.99: NO (Dec 31, 2025)
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