1. Executive Verdict

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
$1,920 or above 1.0% Insufficient data
$2,000 or above 96.0% Insufficient data
$2,040 or above 86.0% Insufficient data
$1,960 or above 1.0% Insufficient data
$2,080 or above 44.0% Insufficient data

2. Market Data

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Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Implied probability
$1,040 or above $1.00 $0.01 100%
$1,080 or above $1.00 $0.01 100%
$1,120 or above $1.00 $0.01 100%
$1,160 or above $1.00 $0.01 100%
$1,200 or above $1.00 $0.01 100%
$1,240 or above $1.00 $0.01 100%
$1,280 or above $1.00 $0.01 100%
$1,320 or above $1.00 $0.01 100%
$1,360 or above $1.00 $0.01 100%
$1,400 or above $1.00 $0.01 100%
$1,440 or above $1.00 $0.01 100%
$1,480 or above $1.00 $0.01 100%
$1,520 or above $1.00 $0.03 100%
$1,560 or above $1.00 $0.03 100%
$1,600 or above $1.00 $0.02 100%
$1,640 or above $1.00 $0.03 100%
$1,680 or above $1.00 $0.03 100%
$1,720 or above $1.00 $0.03 100%
$1,760 or above $1.00 $0.03 100%
$1,800 or above $1.00 $0.04 100%
$1,840 or above $1.00 $0.02 100%
$1,880 or above $1.00 $0.02 100%
$1,920 or above $1.00 $0.03 100%
$1,960 or above $1.00 $0.03 100%
$1,000 or above $1.00 $0.01 100%
$2,000 or above $0.96 $0.05 96%
$2,040 or above $0.86 $0.17 86%
$2,080 or above $0.44 $0.60 44%
$2,120 or above $0.11 $0.93 11%
$2,360 or above $0.04 $1.00 4%
$2,160 or above $0.03 $1.00 3%
$2,200 or above $0.03 $1.00 3%
$2,240 or above $0.03 $1.00 3%
$2,280 or above $0.03 $1.00 3%
$2,320 or above $0.03 $1.00 3%
$2,400 or above $0.01 $1.00 1%
$2,440 or above $0.01 $1.00 1%
$2,480 or above $0.01 $1.00 1%
$2,520 or above $0.01 $1.00 1%
$2,560 or above $0.01 $1.00 1%