Ethereum price on Feb 13, 2026 at 5pm EST?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Ethereum's price on Feb 13, 2026, will be $940 or above.
1. Executive Verdict
- Ethereum ETFs garnered $12 billion in inflows by early Q1 2026.
- Layer-2s surpassed Ethereum mainnet in transaction volume by late 2025.
- Approximately 30% of Ethereum's supply is locked in concentrated staking.
- Sudden large buy or sell orders will drive immediate price changes.
- Unforeseen real-time news, dApp launches, or upgrades are catalysts.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2,100 or above | 20.0% | 17.5% | Market higher by 2.5pp |
| $2,020 or above | 89.0% | 86.0% | Market higher by 3.0pp |
| $2,060 or above | 60.0% | 56.5% | Market higher by 3.5pp |
| $1,900 or above | 1.0% | 98.0% | Model higher by 97.0pp |
| $1,940 or above | 99.0% | 97.5% | The evidence of volatile, weakly convicted Ethereum ETF flows and recent price fragility provides only weak support for the market's extreme 97.5% confidence, justifying a negative logit shift that reduces the posterior probability. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Based on the provided data, this prediction market has been in a significant long-term downtrend. The probability of a "YES" outcome began at 48.0% and has since fallen to a current price of just 8.0%. This overarching bearish trend was briefly interrupted by a period of extreme volatility in early February 2026. On February 8th, the price surged 29.0 percentage points to a peak of 82.0%, a move attributed to a bullish corporate announcement from BitMine Immersion Technologies regarding its Ethereum holdings. However, this optimism was short-lived. By February 10th, the market saw a sharp 14.0 percentage point drop as broader, negative market news and structural factors eroded confidence, quickly erasing the prior gains and resuming the dominant downward trajectory.
The market's volume and price levels further confirm the strong bearish conviction. Total volume is high at 71,782 contracts, and sample data indicates that volume has generally increased as the price has fallen, suggesting that participation and conviction grew stronger with the downtrend. The 82.0% level reached on February 8th now stands as a major resistance point, representing a peak of bullish enthusiasm that was decisively rejected. The current price of 8.0% is testing the lower end of its historical range, which bottoms out at 3.0%. Overall, the price action reflects a deeply pessimistic market sentiment, with participants overwhelmingly betting against the "YES" outcome. The failure to sustain the news-driven spike in early February indicates that the underlying negative trend is firmly in control.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: $2,020 or above
📈 February 13, 2026: 86.0pp spike
Price increased from 10.0% to 96.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 86.0 percentage point spike in the "Ethereum price on Feb 13, 2026 at 5pm EST [^]? Outcome: $2,020 or above" prediction market was the release of favorable macroeconomic data on February 13, 2026 [^]. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed annual inflation declining to 2.4% in January, below market expectations [^]. This news fueled bullish sentiment, causing the overall cryptocurrency market to rebound, with Ethereum experiencing a notable 6% jump to approximately $2,034 [^]. The rapid price increase, confirming the Ethereum price above the $2,020 threshold, likely triggered a significant short squeeze that further accelerated the prediction market's price movement [^]. Social media activity appears to have been mostly noise or lagging, given that the broader "Fear & Greed Index" remained at "Extreme Fear" despite the price rally [^].
📉 February 12, 2026: 15.0pp drop
Price decreased from 31.0% to 16.0%
What happened: The 15.0 percentage point drop in the "Ethereum price on Feb 13, 2026 at 5pm EST [^]? $2,020 or above" prediction market on February 12, 2026, was primarily driven by a bearish forecast from a prominent financial institution [^]. Standard Chartered's head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, issued a warning on February 12, 2026, predicting that Ethereum could fall toward $1,400, citing factors like weaker U.S [^]. economic momentum and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [^]. This significant negative price target from a reputable analyst coincided directly with the prediction market's decline, undermining the likelihood of Ethereum reaching $2,020 or above [^]. While there was social media activity discussing general market sentiment and technical patterns, no specific posts from influential figures directly triggered this sharp drop [^]. Social media was mostly noise or reflected existing market sentiment, rather than being the primary driver of this specific price prediction market movement [^].
Outcome: $2,060 or above
📉 February 11, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 28.0% to 18.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 10.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market for Ethereum on February 11, 2026, was a broader cryptocurrency market downturn influenced by macroeconomic factors and significant market structure events [^]. Ethereum's price had been in a volatile seven-day decline, closing at $1,941.71 on February 11, representing a 3.9% daily drop [^]. This movement coincided with a "risk-off" sentiment across assets following a "blowout U.S [^]. jobs report" that reduced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and substantial net outflows of $276.30 million from Bitcoin spot ETFs on the same day [^]. Additionally, crypto lender BlockFills halted client withdrawals around this time, signaling wider market distress [^]. Social media activity from key figures like Elon Musk or Donald Trump was not identified as a direct cause for this specific Ethereum price drop [^]. Concluding on social media's role: (d) irrelevant [^].
📉 February 10, 2026: 18.0pp drop
Price decreased from 56.0% to 38.0%
What happened: The 18.0 percentage point drop in the "Ethereum price on Feb 13, 2026 at 5pm EST [^]? Outcome: "$2,060 or above"" prediction market on February 10, 2026, was primarily driven by traditional news and market structure factors indicating waning confidence in Ethereum's immediate price trajectory [^]. A significant market structure factor was the $9.90 million outflow from the Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW) on February 10, 2026, signifying institutional selling and contributing to a bearish outlook [^]. Concurrently, the White House stablecoin meeting on the same day reportedly ended in an "impasse," failing to provide clear positive regulatory updates and likely adding to market uncertainty [^]. While Vitalik Buterin posted on X about Ethereum's role in AI on February 10, this strategic discussion was not a direct bearish driver [^]. Social media activity was mostly noise in this specific price movement [^].
Outcome: $2,100 or above
📈 February 08, 2026: 29.0pp spike
Price increased from 53.0% to 82.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 29.0 percentage point spike in the "Ethereum price on Feb 13, 2026 at 5pm EST?" prediction market for the "$2,100 or above" outcome on February 8, 2026, was likely the announcement by BitMine Immersion Technologies [^]. The company disclosed that as of February 8, 2026, it had acquired over 40,000 ETH in the preceding week, bringing its total Ethereum holdings to 4.326 million tokens, valued at approximately $2,125 per ETH [^]. This significant corporate accumulation and the executive chairman's bullish statements, which described the price pullback as an attractive buying opportunity due to strengthening fundamentals, likely boosted investor sentiment and confidence in Ethereum's price trajectory [^]. This news, despite being formally reported on February 9th and 10th, referenced holdings as of February 8th, suggesting market awareness or anticipation that day [^]. Social media activity did not appear to be the primary driver [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided content:
The market asks about "Ethereum price today at 5pm EST?". YES/NO Resolution: The precise conditions for a YES or NO resolution (e.g., above/below a certain price) are not specified in the provided text. Key Dates/Deadlines: The market is scheduled to resolve "today at 5pm EST". The "2026" in the title appears to be part of the market name but doesn't define a specific resolution date from this excerpt. * Special Settlement Conditions: No special settlement conditions are mentioned.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1,020 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $1,060 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 100% |
| $1,100 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $1,140 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 100% |
| $1,180 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $1,220 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 100% |
| $1,260 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $1,300 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 100% |
| $1,340 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $1,380 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 100% |
| $1,420 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $1,460 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 100% |
| $1,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 100% |
| $1,540 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 100% |
| $1,580 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 100% |
| $1,620 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 100% |
| $1,660 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 100% |
| $1,700 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 100% |
| $1,740 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 100% |
| $1,780 or above | $1.00 | $0.04 | 100% |
| $1,820 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 100% |
| $1,860 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 100% |
| $1,900 or above | $1.00 | $0.04 | 100% |
| $900 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $940 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $980 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 100% |
| $1,940 or above | $0.99 | $0.04 | 99% |
| $1,980 or above | $0.99 | $0.06 | 99% |
| $2,020 or above | $0.89 | $0.17 | 89% |
| $2,060 or above | $0.60 | $0.47 | 60% |
| $2,100 or above | $0.20 | $0.85 | 20% |
| $2,140 or above | $0.08 | $0.98 | 8% |
| $2,180 or above | $0.05 | $1.00 | 5% |
| $2,220 or above | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
| $2,500 or above | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
| $2,260 or above | $0.03 | $1.00 | 3% |
| $2,300 or above | $0.03 | $1.00 | 3% |
| $2,340 or above | $0.03 | $1.00 | 3% |
| $2,380 or above | $0.03 | $1.00 | 3% |
| $2,580 or above | $0.03 | $1.00 | 3% |
| $2,660 or above | $0.03 | $1.00 | 3% |
| $2,740 or above | $0.03 | $1.00 | 3% |
| $2,420 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $2,460 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $2,540 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $2,620 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $2,700 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $2,780 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $2,820 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $2,860 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
On February 13, 2026, discussions around Ethereum's price revealed a mixed sentiment, with some analysts forecasting a short-term bearish trend and potential decline to around $1,772 or even $1,400, citing weak demand and a downward channel [^]. Conversely, other commentary highlighted institutional resilience and a "fundamental-to-price" disparity, suggesting a cautious mid-term bullish outlook with a potential rebound towards $2,400 by late March 2026, fueled by strong network utility and steady ETF inflows [^]. Social media and prediction markets also reflected varied expectations, with ongoing debates on market cycles and the impact of factors like hacker-initiated sell-offs adding to selling pressure [^].
5. How Do Ethereum ETF Inflows Compare to Bitcoin ETF Performance?
| Ethereum ETF Net Inflows (Q1 2026) | $12-15 billion [^] |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin ETF Net Inflows (2024) | $31 billion [^] |
| Ethereum vs. Bitcoin ETF Inflow Ratio | 40-50% of Bitcoin ETF's first year inflows [^] |
Spot Ethereum ETFs, launched in mid-2025, gathered substantial inflows by early 2026. By early Q1 2026, these ETFs accumulated approximately $12 billion to $15 billion in cumulative net inflows [^]. This performance falls within the higher end of conservative projections, such as Galaxy Research's model, which had anticipated Ethereum ETFs capturing 20-50% of Bitcoin ETF flow volumes [^]. However, these current inflows have not yet reached the most optimistic scenarios; for instance, more bullish forecasts from platforms like Mudrex had projected potential inflows of $30 billion to $50 billion over a longer investment horizon [^]. The mixed flow dynamics observed in January 2026 suggest the market is still in the process of finding its equilibrium [^].
Ethereum ETFs compare favorably against Bitcoin ETF capital absorption. As a benchmark, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which launched in January 2024, demonstrated significant capital absorption, attracting nearly $18 billion in net inflows by July 2024 and reaching $31 billion by the end of the 2024 calendar year. By late 2025, total Assets Under Management (AUM) for these Bitcoin products had surpassed $95 billion, setting a high-water mark for new ETF categories. A comparative analysis reveals that Ethereum ETF's cumulative net inflows of $12-15 billion by Q1 2026 [^] represent approximately 40-50% of Bitcoin ETFs' first-year inflows ($31 billion) [^]. This places Ethereum at the upper bound of the projected capture range, indicating strong relative demand. Future growth for Ethereum ETFs is heavily influenced by potential regulatory clarity on staking yields, which could significantly differentiate their value proposition from Bitcoin ETFs and attract income-focused investors [^], potentially pushing inflows beyond current projections [^].
6. Are Ethereum Layer-2s Outpacing Mainnet in Transaction Volume and Adoption?
| Combined L2 Daily Transactions | Approaching 2 million (early 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Ethereum Mainnet Daily Transactions | 2.466 million (February 11, 2026) [^] |
| Projected L2 Daily Active Addresses | Exceed 6 million by end of 2026 [^] |
Ethereum Layer-2s have decisively surpassed mainnet in transaction volume. By the end of 2025, the combined Layer-2 (L2) ecosystem effectively 'flipped' the Ethereum mainnet, processing over 1.9 million daily transactions compared to the Layer-1's average of approximately 1.6 million daily [^]. This shift was significantly accelerated by the EIP-4844 upgrade in March 2024, which drastically reduced L2 transaction fees by factors of 10 to 100, unlocking latent demand across various applications [^]. The L2 ecosystem continued its growth, consistently approaching two million cumulative daily transactions as of early 2026 [^], even as the mainnet experienced a temporary spike to 2.89 million daily transactions in January 2026 [^].
L2s are increasingly serving as the primary hub for user interactions. The Ethereum mainnet's role is evolving into a foundational settlement layer for high-value operations, with L2s becoming the primary locus for high-frequency, lower-value user interactions. This fundamental shift is expected to drive a projected six million active addresses on L2s by the end of 2026 [^]. Dominant L2 players, including Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism, are leading this trend, collectively processing nearly 90% of all L2 transactions by late 2025 [^].
The L2 ecosystem faces challenges, but future innovations promise continued growth. Despite its substantial success, the L2 ecosystem confronts issues such as fragmentation, rising blob gas fees, and sequencer centralization. However, future expansion is anticipated through the emergence of Layer-3s, the maturation of ZK-Rollups, and the exploration of modular blockchain architectures. These developments are critical for addressing current bottlenecks, sustaining the ecosystem's growth, and solidifying L2s as the center of daily Ethereum activity.
7. What Does Ethereum Options Data Reveal About Future Price Expectations?
| Dec 2025 Notional OI | $3.8 billion [^] |
|---|---|
| Current Total OI (Post-Dec 2025) | $406-425 million [^] |
| Dec 2025 Put/Call Ratio | 0.38 to 0.41 [^] |
Ethereum options initially displayed strong bullish sentiment for the December 2025 expiry. Prior to this, the market exhibited a significant bullish bias, with the December 2025 contract commanding approximately $3.8 billion in notional open interest [^]. This sentiment was reinforced by a low put/call ratio ranging from 0.38 to 0.41, indicating a pronounced preference for call options. Notably, strikes above $6,500 accumulated over $380 million in open interest, underscoring this bullish outlook [^].
Post-December 2025, market sentiment became more neutral, with high-strike speculation. Following the December 2025 expiry, the total open interest contracted substantially to $406-425 million, and the aggregate put/call ratio shifted to a more neutral range of 0.82-0.89 [^]. This implies a dissipation of much of the extreme speculative fervor, leading to a more balanced market [^]. Concurrently, the interpretation of the put/call ratio for high strike prices primarily reveals significant speculative upside positioning, likely driven by leveraged bets on a major bull run extending through 2025, with a minor component of institutional short-hedging [^].
March 2026 shows institutional "participate and protect" amidst market volatility. The March 2026 expiry, though smaller in open interest, provides evidence of sophisticated institutional positioning. This includes a notable presence of 18,000 in-the-money (ITM) calls alongside 13,000 out-of-the-money (OTM) puts, suggesting a "participate and protect" strategy by these players. This combination indicates expectations of continued upside, balanced with active risk management against potential downturns. Meanwhile, the Max Pain point for the February 2026 expiry was considerably lower at approximately $2,100, creating a tension between long-term bullish positioning and short-term structural 'pin' risk. This suggests that while long-term sentiment remains broadly bullish, the market is pricing in a high-volatility environment with conflicting forces around specific expiry dates.
8. What are the Systemic Risks in Ethereum Staking by 2026?
| Staked ETH Percentage | ~30% of total supply (~36-37M ETH) (late 2025) [^] |
|---|---|
| Lido's Circulating ETH Share | ~7.9% (February 2026) [^] |
| EigenLayer Peak TVL | $18-20 billion (2025) [^] |
A significant portion of ETH is locked in concentrated staking protocols. By early 2026, approximately 30% of Ethereum's total supply, equating to 36-37 million ETH, was staked [^]. This substantial amount is largely concentrated within a few key protocols; specifically, Lido held about 7.9% and EigenLayer for restaking held between 2.8% and 4.5% of the circulating supply by February 2026 [^]. The total value locked (TVL) in the liquid staking market reached $44.8 billion by December 2025, with Lido, Binance, and Rocket Pool collectively dominating approximately 94% of this sector [^]. While this concentration enhances capital efficiency, it simultaneously introduces new systemic risk vectors into the ecosystem.
Critical centralization and slashing risks threaten the leveraged ecosystem. Key risks identified include validator centralization, which was exacerbated by the Pectra upgrade (EIP-7251) increasing the validator balance limit to 2,048 ETH, and complex compounded slashing risks inherent within the restaking ecosystem. Firms such as Gauntlet and Chaos Labs have been instrumental in modeling these potential threats, employing techniques like minimax frameworks and Value-at-Risk (VaR) models to assess tail-risk events. Initially high yields in restaking normalized to approximately 2.7% by late 2025, only marginally surpassing base staking yields, contributing to a 21% contraction in EigenLayer's TVL from its peak [^].
Highly leveraged staking creates a significant risk of a mass de-leveraging. The deep integration of staking and restaking has profound implications for Ethereum's price discovery. While the locking of 30% of ETH acts as a "supply sink," supporting prices [^], it concurrently fosters a highly leveraged financial structure. A mass de-leveraging event, potentially triggered by a significant slashing incident, a protocol exploit, or a widespread loss of confidence, remains a plausible high-impact threat. Such an event could lead to liquid staking tokens de-pegging, overwhelm the validator exit queue, and cause a severe price decline for ETH, thereby creating a bimodal distribution of market outcomes for 2026.
9. What is the Target Timeline and Criteria for Ethereum's Verkle Tree Upgrade?
| Mainnet Target | Late 2026 (Hegota hard fork) [^] |
|---|---|
| Node Storage Reduction | Approximately 90% [^] |
| Light Client Proof Size | ~1-2 KB [^] |
Ethereum core developers are targeting the Hegota hard fork in late 2026 for the mainnet implementation of Verkle Trees [^] . This critical re-architecture, part of the "Verge" phase of the Ethereum roadmap, aims to simplify block verification, ultimately enabling stateless clients, and is designed to drastically reduce hardware requirements for running an Ethereum node [^]. The preceding Glamsterdam upgrade in mid-2026 will not include Verkle Trees, allowing for a dedicated focus on this complex transition within the Hegota upgrade [^].
Successful activation requires significant storage and proof size reductions during the final public testnet phase. Key quantitative success criteria include an approximate 90% reduction in node storage requirements, which would substantially lower the hardware barrier for running a full node [^]. Additionally, state proof sizes for light clients must consistently fall within the ~1-2 kilobyte range, representing a dramatic improvement from the 150 KB+ proofs commonly associated with Merkle Patricia Tries [^].
Testnet must prove rapid synchronization and client stability before mainnet activation. The testnet phase must demonstrate "nearly instant synchronization" for staking nodes and achieve an order-of-magnitude reduction in initial sync times for new nodes. While current Verkle Tree implementations are approximately 40% slower than existing Merkle Patricia Tries, this computational overhead must be reduced to an acceptable level. The stability and interoperability of the new state model across all major client implementations on dedicated testnets will ultimately determine the mainnet activation decision [^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts for Final Hours
Given the extremely short timeframe until the settlement of the Ethereum prediction market, any significant price movements will be driven by immediate, real-time market dynamics. The primary catalysts will involve sudden large buy or sell orders, often termed 'whale activity,' from major institutional or individual investors. An unexpected substantial purchase could rapidly increase demand and price, while a large-scale sale could flood the market with supply, driving the price down quickly.
Furthermore, unforeseen positive or negative real-time news or announcements could also act as catalysts. Bullish drivers might include a major dApp launch, a successful and widely adopted network upgrade, or a significant partnership. Conversely, bearish catalysts could involve a critical bug discovery, a security breach on a major exchange, or adverse regulatory rumors. These events would need to occur and be absorbed by the market within the final hours before settlement.
Finally, broader cryptocurrency market movements, particularly in Bitcoin, could exert influence. A sudden, strong upward movement in Bitcoin's price or the overall market could pull Ethereum higher, while a sharp decline could drag Ethereum's price lower. At this late stage, fundamental changes or pre-scheduled events with lead times are unlikely to emerge as new catalysts, as the market has already priced in most known factors.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: February 13, 2026
- Expiration: February 20, 2026
- Closes: February 13, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Given the extremely short timeframe until the settlement of the Ethereum prediction market, any significant price movements will be driven by immediate, real-time market dynamics.
- Trigger: The primary catalysts will involve sudden large buy or sell orders, often termed 'whale activity,' from major institutional or individual investors.
- Trigger: An unexpected substantial purchase could rapidly increase demand and price, while a large-scale sale could flood the market with supply, driving the price down quickly.
- Trigger: Furthermore, unforeseen positive or negative real-time news or announcements could also act as catalysts.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 18 resolved YES, 32 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXETHD-26FEB1314-T2689.99: NO (Feb 13, 2026)
- KXETHD-26FEB1314-T2669.99: NO (Feb 13, 2026)
- KXETHD-26FEB1314-T2649.99: NO (Feb 13, 2026)
- KXETHD-26FEB1314-T2629.99: NO (Feb 13, 2026)
- KXETHD-26FEB1314-T2609.99: NO (Feb 13, 2026)
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