1. Executive Verdict

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Above $0.12 16.0% Insufficient data
Above $0.13 11.0% Insufficient data
Above $0.14 2.0% Insufficient data
Above $0.15 5.0% Insufficient data
Above $0.18 3.0% Insufficient data

2. Market Data

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Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Implied probability
Above $0.12 $0.16 $0.88 16%
Above $0.13 $0.11 $0.90 11%
Above $0.15 $0.05 $0.98 5%
Above $0.16 $0.04 $0.98 4%
Above $0.17 $0.04 $0.97 4%
Above $0.18 $0.03 $0.98 3%
Above $0.14 $0.02 $1.00 2%