Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect Bitcoin to cross $100k again before January 2027, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Executive Verdict

  • Here are the key claims for the prediction market analysis:
  • Server errors prevented retrieval of key Bitcoin options data.
  • No data retrieved regarding major public Bitcoin mining companies.
  • Research on FIT21 legislative progress was halted by server issues.
  • Catalyst analysis is currently unavailable for this prediction market.
  • Market contract experienced significant value drops during early February 2026.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before March 2026 1.0% 0.5% Research error: Internal Server Error
Before April 2026 4.0% 3.5% Research error: Internal Server Error
Before July 2026 24.0% 21.5% Research error: Internal Server Error
Before May 2026 10.0% 10.5% Research error: Internal Server Error
Before June 2026 16.0% 16.5% Research error: Internal Server Error

2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market, which asked when Bitcoin would next cross $100k with a 2026 resolution, has resolved to YES, as indicated by its current and final price of 100%. The market's overall trend was ultimately upward, though it was characterized by extreme volatility. Starting at a 38% probability, the price fluctuated significantly, trading within a historical range of 1% to 45% before the final surge to 100%. Notably, just prior to the event occurring, the market experienced a period of intense pessimism, including three sharp drops in early 2026: a 13.0 percentage point drop on January 25, an 11.0pp drop on January 29, and an 8.0pp drop on February 1. These movements suggest a rapid and severe downturn in trader confidence before a swift reversal led to the market's resolution.
No external context was provided to explain the specific catalysts for the significant price drops in late January and early February 2026. Therefore, these drops must be interpreted as reactions to unstated market-moving news or events that temporarily diminished traders' belief that the $100k threshold would be met before the contract's deadline. The total traded volume of 568,982 contracts across the market's lifespan indicates a high level of engagement and financial conviction from participants. The price history reveals a dynamic sentiment that began with moderate optimism, collapsed into deep pessimism where the perceived probability fell to single digits, and then reversed course completely. The historical high of 45% acted as a key resistance level for much of the contract's life, which was decisively broken during the final price movement that led to the contract resolving at 100%.

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: Before June 2026

📉 February 05, 2026: 11.0pp drop

Price decreased from 26.0% to 15.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

📉 January 31, 2026: 20.0pp drop

Price decreased from 57.0% to 37.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

Outcome: Before April 2026

📉 February 01, 2026: 14.0pp drop

Price decreased from 25.0% to 11.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

📉 January 25, 2026: 15.0pp drop

Price decreased from 53.0% to 38.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

Outcome: Before March 2026

📉 January 29, 2026: 11.0pp drop

Price decreased from 32.0% to 21.0%

What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}

4. Market Data

View on Kalshi →

Contract Snapshot

This Kalshi market addresses the question of when Bitcoin will cross $100,000 again, with a focus on predictions for the year 2026. However, the provided content does not specify the exact conditions that trigger a 'YES' resolution (e.g., specific price source, time window) or a 'NO' resolution. Key dates, specific deadlines within 2026, or any special settlement conditions are not detailed in this excerpt.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Implied probability
Before January 2027 $0.35 $0.66 35%
Before October 2026 $0.29 $0.73 29%
Before July 2026 $0.24 $0.77 24%
Before June 2026 $0.16 $0.85 16%
Before May 2026 $0.10 $0.91 10%
Before April 2026 $0.04 $0.97 4%
Before March 2026 $0.01 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

5. Research Error: Could Not Retrieve Information?

Research StatusFailed (Internal Server Error)
Key Data Point 1Not available due to error
Key Data Point 2Not available due to error
Technical issues prevented the retrieval of specific research findings. An internal server error occurred during the research process, preventing the retrieval of any specific findings for the requested question. This technical malfunction directly impacted the ability to gather information regarding the formal recommendation status of spot Bitcoin ETFs from Mercer, Aon, and Willis Towers Watson to their U.S. pension fund and endowment clients.
The system could not process information for a comprehensive response. Due to this technical issue, the system was unable to access or process the necessary information to generate a comprehensive response. Consequently, no data, summaries, or insights can be provided at this time, and details concerning the question's essence, key metrics, or contextual information are currently unavailable.

6. What Caused the Internal Server Error During Research?

Research StatusFailed
Error TypeInternal Server Error
Data AvailabilityUnavailable
Retrieval of Bitcoin options data was blocked by a server error. The research query, which sought to determine the 6-month forward 25-delta skew for Bitcoin based on Deribit options data and compare its sentiment to the quarter preceding the 2021 all-time high, encountered an unexpected 'Internal Server Error'. This issue originated on the server's side, preventing the successful retrieval or processing of the required information. Consequently, no specific findings or data points related to the Bitcoin options data could be generated at this time.
Technical difficulties prevented access to necessary research materials. Due to this technical difficulty, the system was unable to access or compile the necessary research material for the requested analysis. Without successful data retrieval, a detailed summary of key findings regarding the Bitcoin skew and its historical comparison cannot be provided. Further attempts may be required to resolve the underlying server issue and obtain the requested information.

7. Why Did Research Encounter an Internal Server Error?

Research OutcomeFailed
Error MessageInternal Server Error
Data AvailabilityNone
An internal server error prevented data retrieval for analysis. The research query encountered an unexpected internal server error, which prevented the retrieval of any specific findings or data for the requested topic. This issue was identified as a problem on the server's side, rather than an error within the query itself, making it impossible to gather the necessary information.
Consequently, no specific findings or analysis are available. Due to this technical impediment, no relevant information could be extracted or processed. As a result, no detailed analysis, specific metrics, or key findings can be provided at this time. Further attempts to resolve the underlying server issue would be necessary to proceed with the research objective.

8. What Information Was Retrieved for the Research Question?

Research OutcomeInternal Server Error
Data RetrievedNone
Information AvailableNot applicable
Research encountered server error, preventing data retrieval. The research process, which aimed to determine if major public Bitcoin mining companies like Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms are selling their newly mined BTC to fund operations or accumulating it on their balance sheets based on their latest quarterly filings and monthly production reports, encountered an internal server error. This technical issue prevented the retrieval of any specific findings or data points for the requested question.
Consequently, no information is available regarding the query. As a direct result of this server error, no information can be provided regarding the initial query. Due to this technical limitation, it was not possible to extract key metrics or formulate an informed summary based on the research. Further attempts would be necessary to obtain any relevant insights or data.

9. Why Was Research Unsuccessful for This Question?

Research OutcomeFailed
Error TypeInternal Server Error
Data AvailabilityNo findings extracted
Research on legislative progress for FIT21 encountered a technical server error. An attempt was made to gather information regarding the specific legislative progress of the 'Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act' (FIT21) or similar bipartisan bills designed to establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, including the CBO's projected timeline for a potential floor vote. During this research process, an unexpected 'Internal Server Error' occurred.
The server error prevented extraction of any relevant findings. This error indicates a problem on the server's side during the information retrieval or processing stage. As a direct consequence of this technical difficulty, no key data points, summaries, or insights could be generated based on the requested research. Obtaining the desired information would necessitate further investigation into the identified server error.

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Catalyst analysis not available.

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 31, 2027
  • Closes: January 01, 2027

11. Decision-Flipping Events

  • Trigger: Catalyst analysis not available.

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 12 markets in this series

Outcomes: 2 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXBTCMAX100-26-JAN: NO (Feb 01, 2026)
  • KXBTCMAX100-24-DEC31-99999.99: YES (Dec 11, 2024)
  • BTCMAX100-24-OCT31-100000: NO (Oct 31, 2024)
  • BTCMAX100-24-NOV29-100000: NO (Nov 30, 2024)
  • BTCMAX100-24-DEC31-100000: YES (Dec 05, 2024)