How low will Bitcoin get in February?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Bitcoin to drop below $60,000 in February, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Internal server errors prevented retrieval of key research findings.
- Institutional adoption and crypto integration provide potential bullish momentum.
- Favorable regulatory developments, like the Clarity Act, could boost sentiment.
- Web3 Global Blockchain Summit announcements could provide bullish market sentiment.
- Recent price action indicates significant volatility, including sharp drops.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $60,000.00 | 4.0% | 21.5% | Profit-taking after recent ETF-fueled rallies could drive a price correction. |
| Below $57,500.00 | 4.0% | 9.5% | Continued selling pressure or unexpected regulatory news could lead to a deeper correction. |
| Below $55,000.00 | 3.0% | 5.5% | Macroeconomic headwinds or a significant breakdown of technical support could push prices lower. |
| Below $50,000.00 | 2.0% | 2.5% | Major liquidations or a broader financial market downturn could trigger a significant drop. |
| Below $70,000.00 | 1.0% | 21.5% | Model higher by 20.5pp |
Current Context
Bitcoin's recent price decline stems from macroeconomic shifts and market deleveraging. Bitcoin eased towards the $67,000 level around February 23, 2026, following renewed trade tensions and President Donald Trump's move to lift global tariffs to 15% from 10%, which took effect on February 24, 2026 [^]. This amplified economic uncertainty and triggered a broad sell-off across risk assets [^]. BTC tumbled below $63,000 on February 24, marking a four-day consecutive decline; on February 23, BTC was trading at $64,951 and had made a recent low of $60,000, while on February 22, Bitcoin traded at $68,014 [^]. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a five-week outflow streak, with cumulative outflows reaching $4.5 billion in 2026 so far, signaling a shift in institutional sentiment [^]. On February 24, Bitcoin markets saw a significant deleveraging event, with over $370 million in forced liquidations as prices approached the $60,000 threshold [^]. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 9 on February 22, indicating "extreme retail panic," in contrast to some observed institutional accumulation [^]. Earlier in the month, around February 5, the index was at 11, the lowest since the FTX collapse in 2022, and around 14 on February 8-9, indicating extreme fear [^].
Traders monitor critical support levels and expert analyses for future price direction. Bitcoin's current trading range has fluctuated between $62,000 and $68,000 in the last few days of February [^]. Key support zones are identified at $60,000-$62,000, $55,000 (coinciding with the 200-Week MA midpoint and realized price), $53,000, $49,000, and $45,000, with the 200 EMA near $38,000-$42,000 [^]. Major resistance levels include $70,000-$71,000, $72,000-$74,000, $75,000, $80,000, and $90,000 [^]. The ongoing trend of Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and outflows, as well as liquidation data like the over $370 million on February 24, are critical metrics [^]. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio, particularly its movement above or below the 5.0 threshold, is also important [^]. Technical analysts note Bitcoin's consolidation at the lowest levels since Q4 2024, with some describing the structure as fragile; a weekly close below the $60,000-$62,000 range could target $53,000 and potentially $49,000, and a "bear pennant" pattern suggests a potential drop to $45,000-$50,000 [^]. Crypto analyst IT Tech highlighted $2.3 billion in realized losses by February 13, 2026, as a severe capitulation event [^]. Nick Ruck of LVRG Research pointed to strong support between $40,000 and $60,000, with $55,000 being a historically significant "realized price" often associated with bear market bottoms [^]. Despite current downturns, some influencers maintain an "overwhelmingly bullish" consensus for 2026, with price targets from $85,000 to $300,000 [^], while other analyses project Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by the end of 2026 or higher, between $75,000 and $225,000 [^]. ChatGPT analysis suggests realistic downside ranges for 2026 could include moderate (60-70% decline) to extreme (85-90% drawdowns) scenarios [^].
Upcoming events and unresolved questions fuel ongoing speculation about Bitcoin's February low. The "What price will Bitcoin hit in February?" prediction market on Polymarket is scheduled to resolve around February 28, 2026 [^]. Several Bitcoin-related conferences, such as Bitcoin++ Exploits Edition in Florianópolis, Brazil, MoneyX 2026 in Tokyo, and Sound Money Soirée 2026 in Tampa, FL, are taking place in the last week of February, potentially influencing sentiment [^]. Primary concerns include how low Bitcoin will get in February and whether the current support levels, especially around $60,000, will hold [^]. People are debating if $60,000 represents a crucial bounce zone or a "trap door" leading to further declines towards $50,000 [^]. The impact of President Trump's new tariffs, the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, and overall "risk-off" sentiment are significant concerns [^]. The persistent outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs and their role in increasing selling pressure are also a key area of discussion [^]. There is also discussion around whether a "double-bottom" chart pattern is forming and if the market structure is maturing despite the volatility [^]. For some, the significant price drop raises the question of whether now is a good time to buy Bitcoin [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market, which tracks the probability of Bitcoin's price falling below $60,000 in February, has exhibited significant volatility. While the overall trend from its starting price of 7.0% to its current 13.0% is upward, the price action has been characterized by sharp, news-driven swings. The market saw its probability peak at 33.0% on February 23 before a rapid decline in the following days. This peak represents a key resistance level for bearish sentiment, where the market perceived the highest likelihood of a significant price drop. The price chart reflects a highly reactive market, with sentiment shifting quickly based on both macroeconomic events and Bitcoin's technical price action.
The major price movements are directly attributable to specific catalysts. A dramatic 18.0 percentage point spike on February 23 was a clear reaction to President Trump's global tariff announcement, which triggered widespread risk-off sentiment and increased fear of a market sell-off. However, this fear was short-lived. A subsequent 9.0 point drop on February 24 and an 11.0 point drop on February 25 occurred as Bitcoin’s price, despite dipping, found support and then rebounded. This price resilience demonstrated strength above the critical $60,000 level, causing traders to rapidly unwind their bearish positions and driving the probability down. Earlier drops in mid-February were similarly tied to Bitcoin holding key support levels, reinforcing the market's sensitivity to this specific price threshold.
The high total trading volume of over 755,000 contracts indicates significant liquidity and strong conviction from participants during these volatile periods. The market's price action shows that while traders are quick to price in systemic risk, their sentiment is ultimately anchored to Bitcoin's ability to defend the $60,000 support level. The current low probability of 13.0%, following a sharp rejection from the 33.0% high, suggests that market participants currently believe Bitcoin is more likely than not to remain above $60,000 through the end of the month, despite the recent negative headlines.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 February 25, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 24.0% to 13.0%
Outcome: Below $60,000.00
What happened: The 11.0 percentage point drop in the "Below $60,000.00" prediction market for Bitcoin on February 25, 2026, was primarily driven by a rebound in Bitcoin's price above this critical level, making the outcome less likely [^]. This upward movement was influenced by traditional news, specifically a Federal Reserve proposal to end "debanking" for legitimate cryptocurrency companies and a cooling of geopolitical fears, which boosted broader risk appetite [^]. Additionally, market structure factors such as an "oversold bounce" after a period of decline and significant "dip buying" between $60,000 and $70,000 contributed to the recovery [^]. Social media activity did not appear to be a primary driver for this specific rebound, despite earlier pervasive bearish sentiment [^].
📉 February 24, 2026: 9.0pp drop
Price decreased from 31.0% to 22.0%
Outcome: Below $60,000.00
What happened: On February 24, 2026, the 9.0 percentage point drop in the "Below $60,000.00" outcome for the Bitcoin prediction market indicates that market participants became less confident Bitcoin would fall below that threshold [^]. While Bitcoin experienced a significant price decline earlier that day, dipping below $65,000 and $63,000, the primary driver for the prediction market's movement was likely a combination of strong technical support and an intraday recovery, reinforced by institutional buying [^]. Bitcoin reportedly found support near the $60,000-$63,000 range and spiked to $66,000 overnight, alongside $272.0M in net institutional Bitcoin ETF inflows as it traded near $64,000 [^]. Social media, including a Truth Social post by Donald Trump announcing a 15% global tariff which initially contributed to a price drop, was mostly noise or a contributing factor to earlier negative price action, rather than the primary driver for the increased confidence that Bitcoin would hold above $60,000 [^].
📈 February 23, 2026: 18.0pp spike
Price increased from 15.0% to 33.0%
Outcome: Below $60,000.00
What happened: The primary driver of the 18.0 percentage point spike in the "Below $60,000.00" prediction market for Bitcoin on February 23, 2026, was President Donald Trump's announcement of a new 15% global tariff [^]. This announcement, made on social media, immediately triggered a widespread "risk-off" sentiment in global markets, causing Bitcoin to drop significantly below $65,000 and leading to substantial liquidations [^]. Social media analytics from Santiment showed a direct spike in "negative sentiment" and the social dominance of "tariffs" on February 23rd, indicating that retail investors reacted with fear and contributed to the downward pressure [^]. This social media-fueled negative sentiment coincided with and accelerated the price move, making social media a contributing accelerant, amplified by the news from a key influential figure [^].
📉 February 20, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 26.0% to 18.0%
Outcome: Below $60,000.00
What happened: The primary driver of the 8.0 percentage point drop in the "How low will Bitcoin get in February?" prediction market on February 20, 2026, was an influential bearish warning from former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes [^]. On February 18, 2026, Hayes published an essay stating that Bitcoin "could fall below $60,000" due to an "AI-driven credit crisis" and an impending "massive credit destruction event" [^]. This prominent figure's direct forecast for Bitcoin to breach the $60,000 mark, disseminated through his widely read analysis, directly led the shift in prediction market sentiment [^]. This social media narrative was then reinforced by coinciding factors, including reports on February 20 highlighting bearish technical patterns like a head-and-shoulders breakdown near the $60,800 neckline, alongside persistent significant outflows from US Spot Bitcoin ETFs and hawkish signals from Federal Reserve meeting minutes [^]. Therefore, social media, specifically Arthur Hayes' analysis, was the primary driver [^].
📉 February 14, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 29.0% to 19.0%
Outcome: Below $60,000.00
What happened: The 10.0 percentage point drop in the "Below $60,000.00" outcome on February 14, 2026, in the "How low will Bitcoin get in February?" prediction market, indicates a decreased market expectation of Bitcoin falling below $60,000 [^]. The primary driver appears to be Bitcoin's perceived resilience at the $60,000 support level, which generated social media discussion suggesting a potential market bottom [^]. On February 14, 2026, discussions on Reddit's r/Bitcoin daily thread indicated some users believed "the bottom is in" following a bounce off the $60,000 mark, with one user noting "that bounce off of $60K was sus af imo" [^]. This social media sentiment, coinciding with Bitcoin holding above or bouncing from the critical $60,000 support level, likely led to increased confidence that it would not drop further below this point in February [^]. Social media was a primary driver, as it captured and amplified the narrative of $60,000 holding as a significant support level [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if Bitcoin's price touches or falls below a specific minimum level at any point during February; it resolves NO if that level is not reached. The observation period for this "one-touch minimum" market covers the entire month of February, with activity concluding around February 28th.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $70,000.00 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| Below $62,500.00 | $0.94 | $0.65 | 94% |
| Below $67,500.00 | $0.78 | $0.24 | 78% |
| Below $65,000.00 | $0.60 | $0.45 | 60% |
| Below $57,500.00 | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Below $60,000.00 | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Below $55,000.00 | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| Below $50,000.00 | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Below $40,000.00 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Discussions surrounding Bitcoin's potential low in February 2026 are largely dominated by bearish sentiment, with prediction markets indicating a strong likelihood of consolidation around $75,000, but with substantial probabilities for drops to $60,000 or even $55,000 [^]. Expert technical analyses and news commentary point to critical support levels around $60,000-$62,000, with some forecasting deeper pullbacks towards $45,000-$53,000 due to factors like significant ETF outflows, macroeconomic uncertainty, and a "risk-off" environment [^]. Social media platforms like Reddit reflect "extreme fear" among investors, with many discussing potential further declines and a protracted period of sideways trading [^].
5. Error: Research Findings Unavailable Due to Internal Server Issue?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | No data retrieved |
| Issue Type | System-level error |
An internal server error prevented successful retrieval of research findings. During the research process, a critical internal system error occurred, which directly impeded the ability to access or extract any specific findings or data points for the requested question concerning the net daily flows of the top three Spot Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT, FBTC, ARKB) in the final trading days of February.
No specific findings or data points could be extracted. Consequently, due to this system error, the research could not be completed successfully to gather the necessary content. This makes it impossible to provide the requested key data points, detailed paragraphs, or a summary regarding a trend reversal or the continuation of institutional outflow patterns.
6. Why Was Research Unavailable for This Query?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Availability | None |
Technical issues prevented the requested research from being completed. An internal server error occurred during the attempt to gather information regarding the estimated notional value of long liquidations clustered at the $60,000 and $58,000 support levels, and its comparison to the recent $370 million deleveraging event. This technical malfunction directly obstructed the retrieval and processing of any pertinent data.
No specific findings or analysis are currently available. Consequently, it was impossible to generate any detailed answers, data points, or analytical summaries concerning the liquidation pool at the specified price points. To obtain the desired information, the underlying server error must first be resolved, and the research query subsequently re-attempted.
7. Why Was Research Unsuccessful Due To Server Error?
| Research Outcome | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Cause of Failure | System-side technical issue |
Requested research encountered an 'Internal Server Error'. The requested research could not be completed due to an 'Internal Server Error'. This indicates a technical problem occurred on the server's end during the attempt to retrieve information.
No data or findings were extracted. Consequently, no data or findings could be extracted or processed for the query. This technical issue prevented the research from progressing beyond the initial data retrieval phase.
No specific findings or data are available. As a direct result of this server-side issue, it is not possible to provide any specific key findings, data points, or a summary related to the original research question. The research process terminated prematurely due to the unexpected error.
8. Why Was Research Data Unavailable for This Query?
| Research Outcome | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Availability | None |
The research query could not be completed due to a server error. The intended analysis regarding the net change in Bitcoin reserves held in known miner wallets during the price decline from $68,000 to $63,000, and whether this indicated accelerated selling to cover operational costs or opportunistic accumulation, encountered a critical technical issue. An 'Internal Server Error' occurred during the data retrieval or processing phase, preventing the generation of any specific findings.
No specific findings or insights could be generated. As a direct consequence of this technical failure, the system was unable to access or process the required information to fulfill the request. Therefore, no data points, summaries, or analytical insights could be extracted. To obtain the requested information, the research process would need to be re-attempted once the underlying server error has been resolved.
9. Why Did the Research Encounter an Internal Server Error?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Availability | None |
The requested research, which aimed to analyze the Bitcoin options market's implied volatility and put/call ratio ahead of February's final major US economic data releases, could not be successfully completed. During the research process, an 'Internal Server Error' was encountered, which critically prevented the retrieval of any relevant findings or data.
No specific market insights or data could be provided. Due to this technical issue, no specific insights, key data points, or detailed analysis concerning the Bitcoin options market's positioning, including whether traders are hedging against a price drop or anticipating a relief rally, can be provided at this time. It is recommended to reattempt the research query later or investigate the underlying system for the cause of the internal error.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts and Events
The Bitcoin prediction market faces several catalysts before its March 1, 2026 settlement. Bullish momentum could stem from ongoing institutional adoption and integration of crypto into traditional finance, alongside favorable regulatory developments, such as progress on Senator Cynthia Lummis's 'Clarity Act' in the US [^]. Additionally, positive announcements from the Web3 Global Blockchain and Innovation Summit (February 24-28) could boost sentiment [^].
Conversely, bearish pressures are anticipated from key US macroeconomic data releases, including Durable Goods Orders (February 26) and the Producer Price Index (February 27), where stronger-than-expected inflation or economic slowdown signs could lead to de-risking [^] . Increased regulatory scrutiny from the SEC, continued outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, or a technical breakdown below Bitcoin's $65,000 support level also pose downside risks [^]. The 'Bitcoin++ Exploits Edition' (February 26-28) could also impact confidence if new vulnerabilities are revealed [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: March 08, 2026
- Closes: March 01, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The Bitcoin prediction market faces several catalysts before its March 1, 2026 settlement.
- Trigger: Bullish momentum could stem from ongoing institutional adoption and integration of crypto into traditional finance, alongside favorable regulatory developments, such as progress on Senator Cynthia Lummis's 'Clarity Act' in the US [^] .
- Trigger: Additionally, positive announcements from the Web3 Global Blockchain and Innovation Summit (February 24-28) could boost sentiment [^] .
- Trigger: Conversely, bearish pressures are anticipated from key US macroeconomic data releases, including Durable Goods Orders (February 26) and the Producer Price Index (February 27), where stronger-than-expected inflation or economic slowdown signs could lead to de-risking [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 14 markets in this series
Outcomes: 14 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTCMINMON-BTC-26FEB28-7500000: YES (Feb 02, 2026)
- KXBTCMINMON-BTC-26FEB28-7250000: YES (Feb 04, 2026)
- KXBTCMINMON-BTC-26FEB28-7000000: YES (Feb 05, 2026)
- KXBTCMINMON-BTC-26FEB28-6750000: YES (Feb 05, 2026)
- KXBTCMINMON-BTC-26FEB28-6500000: YES (Feb 05, 2026)
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