How low will Bitcoin get in 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Bitcoin to fall below $60,000.00 in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Grounded research on Bitcoin's 2026 low was inconclusive due to server errors.
- Analysis of Mt. Gox Bitcoin claims failed due to technical execution issues.
- Specific catalyst analysis for Bitcoin's 2026 low is currently unavailable.
- Bitcoin saw a 27 percentage point drop on February 18, 2026.
- Bitcoin registered a 20 percentage point spike on February 05, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $60,000.00 | 78.0% | 80.5% | A significant post-halving market correction is anticipated in late 2025 or 2026. |
| Below $40,000.00 | 36.0% | 36.5% | Severe macroeconomic headwinds could drive a deeper correction in the cryptocurrency market. |
| Below $45,000.00 | 44.0% | 45.5% | Increased regulatory uncertainty or a major hack could trigger significant selling pressure. |
| Below $65,000.00 | 89.0% | 80.5% | Market higher by 8.5pp |
| Below $50,000.00 | 57.0% | 58.5% | Profit-taking following a potential bull run could establish new support levels lower. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market, which appears to be tracking the probability of Bitcoin's 2026 low falling at or below $45,000, shows a distinct long-term upward trend. The market price has risen from a starting probability of 42.0% to its current level of 81.0%, indicating a strengthening consensus that Bitcoin will hit this bearish target. Overall market sentiment, as reflected by the high current price and significant total trading volume of over 228,000 contracts, is strongly bearish on Bitcoin's price stability for the year 2026, with traders assigning a high probability to a significant price drop.
The market has experienced significant volatility in recent days. There was a sharp 14.0 percentage point spike to 91.0% on February 5th, followed by an 11.0 percentage point drop to 80.0% on February 6th. Given the absence of specific news or context, the direct causes for these rapid shifts in sentiment are not identifiable from the provided data. From a technical perspective, the market's all-time high of 95.0% has acted as a resistance level, a point where conviction in the "YES" outcome has historically peaked. The recent price action between 80.0% and 91.0% suggests this range is a new area of price discovery and potential consolidation for traders.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Below $45,000.00
📉 February 18, 2026: 27.0pp drop
Price decreased from 76.0% to 49.0%
What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}
📉 February 06, 2026: 16.0pp drop
Price decreased from 56.0% to 40.0%
What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}
Outcome: Below $50,000.00
📈 February 05, 2026: 20.0pp spike
Price increased from 50.0% to 70.0%
What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}
Outcome: Below $60,000.00
📈 January 31, 2026: 11.0pp spike
Price increased from 49.0% to 60.0%
What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided page content, there is insufficient information to determine the specific triggers for a YES or NO resolution, key dates/deadlines, or any special settlement conditions for this market. The content only states the market title: "How low will Bitcoin get this year? Odds & Predictions 2026".
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below $65,000.00 | $0.89 | $0.16 | 89% |
| Below $60,000.00 | $0.78 | $0.29 | 78% |
| Below $55,000.00 | $0.66 | $0.35 | 66% |
| Below $50,000.00 | $0.57 | $0.46 | 57% |
| Below $45,000.00 | $0.44 | $0.57 | 44% |
| Below $40,000.00 | $0.36 | $0.65 | 36% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Why Was Research Data Not Successfully Retrieved?
| Research Outcome | Failed |
|---|---|
| Reason for Failure | Internal Server Error |
| Data Extracted | None |
Research on Bitcoin's confluence price level was inconclusive due to technical issues. An internal server error occurred during the research process, preventing the successful retrieval of any information regarding the confluence price level where the realized price (average acquisition cost) of Bitcoin's Short-Term Holders intersects with the largest clusters of liquidation levels for long positions on perpetual futures exchanges like Binance and Bybit. This technical malfunction halted the research attempt before any data could be gathered, preventing an analysis of order book depth and open interest data.
No specific data or detailed findings were generated from this attempt. Due to this technical issue, specific data points, detailed findings, insights, key metrics, or summary paragraphs could not be extracted from the research attempt. The system encountered an unexpected problem that halted further processing, thus precluding the generation of any results.
6. Why Were Research Findings Unavailable for This Query?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Availability | Unavailable |
Research findings were unavailable due to a technical system error. An internal server error was encountered while attempting to retrieve the requested research findings. This technical issue prevented the successful execution of the research process and the extraction of any specific data or insights regarding the projected aggregate all-in production cost per BTC for 2026 for the top 5 publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies.
No specific data or detailed findings can be provided. Consequently, no key data points, statistics, or explanatory paragraphs can be offered at this time, as the underlying research content was not generated due to the technical issue. This means no comparison to historical bottoms formed during previous miner capitulation events can be made.
7. What Information is Available Due to Research Error?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Source | System Error |
The research process encountered an internal server error. This technical issue specifically prevented the retrieval of any specific findings for the requested question concerning regulatory actions or guidance on the classification and custody of spot Bitcoin ETFs for 2026 dockets.
No data points or detailed analysis can be provided. Consequently, no data points or detailed analysis are available at this time. Due to this system failure, it was not possible to generate a summary of key findings or present any relevant statistics, including estimated BTC outflow from these funds.
Further attempts are necessary to obtain the required information. To adequately address the initial query, further efforts to conduct the research would be necessary to obtain the requested information.
8. What Findings Are Available Regarding This Research Question?
| Research Status | Error: No data available (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None (Internal Server Error) |
| Summary | No findings extracted (Internal Server Error) |
Research execution failed, preventing analysis of Mt. Gox Bitcoin claims. The requested research, which aimed to determine the percentage of remaining Mt. Gox Bitcoin claims owned by institutional arbitrage funds versus individual creditors and analyze on-chain selling behavior from initial distribution batches, could not be completed. This outcome was due to an internal server error, meaning no findings or data points are available to summarize at this time.
No specific details or insights are currently available for this query. Without successful research execution, it is not possible to provide specific details, metrics, or insights regarding the distribution of claims or observed selling patterns. It is recommended that the request be submitted again at a later time.
9. Why Was Research Data Retrieval Unsuccessful?
| Research Outcome | Internal Server Error |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Information Source | System Error |
An internal server error prevented the research query's execution. During the attempt to gather information for the requested question concerning put options on Deribit and venture capital unlockings, the system encountered an 'Internal Server Error'. This error indicates a significant issue within the backend infrastructure, preventing the successful execution of the research query and subsequent data retrieval.
Consequently, no specific findings or insights could be generated. As a direct result of this internal server error, the intended research could not produce any specific findings, data points, or analytical summaries. Therefore, the requested information regarding strike prices, open interest, and unlocking coincidences for major quarterly expiry dates in 2026 cannot be provided at this time, as the underlying process failed to generate any content.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis not available.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 31, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis not available.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 23 markets in this series
Outcomes: 13 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-80000.00: YES (Jan 31, 2026)
- KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-78000.00: YES (Jan 31, 2026)
- KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-76000.00: YES (Feb 02, 2026)
- KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-74000.00: YES (Feb 03, 2026)
- KXBTCMINY-27JAN01-72000.00: YES (Feb 04, 2026)
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