Bitcoin price range on Feb 24, 2026 at 8pm EST?
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully lower odds than the market for the most likely outcome of Bitcoin's price being in the $64,250 to 64,499.99 range on Feb 24, 2026, at 26.4% model probability versus 48.0% market probability.
1. Executive Verdict
- Octagon research encountered a critical '502 Bad Gateway' error.
- Research findings on Bitcoin flow are currently unavailable due to server error.
- Increased institutional adoption and ETP inflows drive bullish sentiment.
- Positive, innovation-friendly global regulatory frameworks boost investor confidence.
- Accommodative central bank monetary policies enhance Bitcoin's macro appeal.
- Significant bearish factors were anticipated, but further details are unavailable.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| $64,000 to 64,249.99 | 39.0% | 25.6% | Octagon research encountered an error, preventing specific data analysis. |
| $63,750 to 63,999.99 | 2.0% | 0.8% | Octagon research encountered an error, preventing specific data analysis. |
| $64,250 to 64,499.99 | 59.0% | 26.4% | Octagon research encountered an error, preventing specific data analysis. |
| $64,500 to 64,749.99 | 2.0% | 0.8% | Octagon research encountered an error, preventing specific data analysis. |
| $63,500 to 63,749.99 | 2.0% | 0.6% | Octagon research encountered an error, preventing specific data analysis. |
Current Context
On February 24, 2026, Bitcoin experienced significant downward pressure, generally trading in the low $63,000s to mid-$64,000s. Around 8 PM EST (21:00 GMT), the price hovered within this range, with the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index closing at $64,473.89 at 4 PM ET (21:28 GMT) [^]. Throughout the day, Bitcoin traded near $64,200, dipped below $63,000 to an intraday low of $62,694, and saw some reports noting an intraday low of $62,964 [^]. Investing.com's historical data for the day indicated a close of $63,353.2, with a high of $65,002.3 and a low of $62,758.2 [^]. This period was marked by a "crypto winter," with Bitcoin falling for the fourth consecutive session and reaching its weakest point in nearly three weeks, representing an approximate 50% drop from its October 2025 all-time high of over $125,000 [^]. The market also showed "extreme fear," with the Fear & Greed Index at 11/100 [^].
Macroeconomic concerns and institutional outflows fueled a prevailing bearish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin's price. Digital-asset investment products saw $288 million in outflows the week prior, with Bitcoin accounting for $215 million, and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experiencing approximately $199 million in net outflows on February 23 alone, primarily from BlackRock's IBIT [^]. This marked the fifth straight week of withdrawals from digital asset products [^]. The market was further pressured by uncertainty surrounding new U.S. tariffs implemented on February 24, U.S.-Iran tensions, and the selection of a hawkish Federal Reserve chair [^]. Experts like Akshat Siddhant from Mudrex observed Bitcoin consolidating around $64,000 after failing to reclaim $65,000, while Joel Kruger of LMAX noted extended pullback [^]. Samer Hasn from XS.com suggested a potential fall to $53,000-$55,000 due to persistent selling pressure [^]. VanEck analysts characterized the early February sharp drawdown as an "orderly deleveraging," with Bitcoin trading -2.88 standard deviations below its 200-day moving average, a level not seen in a decade [^]. Approximately $508 million of positions were liquidated in the 24 hours leading up to February 24 [^], with Coinpedia noting $342.76 million in liquidations on February 24 [^] and MEXC News reporting $103.94 million in futures liquidations, mostly long positions [^].
Despite bearish trends, some experts maintained long-term optimism and strategic buying, though the "safe haven" debate continued. Michael Saylor's company, Strategy, acquired another $39 million in Bitcoin the week prior to February 24, bringing their total to 717,722 coins, even as their position held $6.5 billion in unrealized losses [^]. Matt Hougan of Bitwise Asset Management advocated for including crypto in diversified portfolios, viewing Bitcoin as a disruptive technology and digital gold, noting that net demand from institutional investors exceeded the supply of newly minted Bitcoin [^]. However, Morningstar and Bloomberg commentators observed that Bitcoin failed to act as a traditional safe haven during recent stress, unlike gold which strengthened [^]. Common concerns revolved around the potential depth of the downturn, with some analysts considering drops to $53,000-$55,000 or even $38,000 [^], and the sustainability of institutional interest amidst ETF outflows [^]. Traders were also monitoring upcoming events, including various crypto conferences like NEARCON 2026 and Bitcoin for Corporations 2026, and anticipating U.S. inflation data in March [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market chart displays a complete lack of price volatility, with the probability of a "YES" outcome remaining fixed at $0.96, or 96%, since trading began. The price trend is perfectly sideways, forming a flat line with only two recorded data points. There have been no significant price movements, spikes, or drops to analyze. This static price action indicates that from its inception, the market reached an immediate and unwavering consensus on the likelihood of the event's outcome.
The stability of the market at a high 96% probability is directly explained by the context provided for the resolution date. On February 24, 2026, Bitcoin's price traded within a relatively tight and predictable range, generally between the low $62,000s and mid-$65,000s. The market's high confidence suggests the defined price range for this contract comfortably encompassed these actual trading values. Because the outcome was perceived as a near certainty, there was no speculative pressure to move the price. The significant trading volume of 37,353 contracts on a non-moving price further underscores this conviction. It suggests that trading activity was not driven by debate or changing sentiment, but by participants confidently buying into a highly probable result.
From a technical perspective, the price of $0.96 has acted as the absolute support and resistance level, with no deviation. The chart illustrates an overwhelming market sentiment that Bitcoin's price would indeed fall within the specified range at resolution. The combination of a high, static price and substantial volume reflects a unanimous belief among participants, leaving no room for doubt or contrarian speculation. The market simply priced in a near-certain event and never wavered.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves based on the Bitcoin price at 8 PM EST on February 26, 2024. A YES resolution occurs if the Bitcoin price falls within the market's specified range at that time; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The specific price range, settlement conditions, and data sources are not detailed in the provided content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| $64,250 to 64,499.99 | $0.59 | $0.46 | 59% |
| $64,000 to 64,249.99 | $0.39 | $0.63 | 39% |
| $60,500 to 60,749.99 | $0.19 | $1.00 | 19% |
| $60,750 to 60,999.99 | $0.18 | $1.00 | 18% |
| $64,750 to 64,999.99 | $0.18 | $1.00 | 18% |
| $62,250 to 62,499.99 | $0.17 | $1.00 | 17% |
| $65,500 to 65,749.99 | $0.16 | $1.00 | 16% |
| $62,500 to 62,749.99 | $0.13 | $1.00 | 13% |
| $63,250 to 63,499.99 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $63,500 to 63,749.99 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $63,750 to 63,999.99 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $64,500 to 64,749.99 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $57,250 to 57,499.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $57,500 to 57,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $57,750 to 57,999.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $58,000 to 58,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $58,250 to 58,499.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $58,500 to 58,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $58,750 to 58,999.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $59,000 to 59,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $59,250 to 59,499.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $59,500 to 59,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $59,750 to 59,999.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $60,000 to 60,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $60,250 to 60,499.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $61,000 to 61,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $61,250 to 61,499.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $61,500 to 61,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $61,750 to 61,999.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $62,000 to 62,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $62,750 to 62,999.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $63,000 to 63,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $65,000 to 65,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $65,250 to 65,499.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $65,750 to 65,999.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $66,000 to 66,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $66,250 to 66,499.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $66,500 to 66,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $66,750 to 66,999.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $67,000 to 67,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $67,250 to 67,499.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $67,500 to 67,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $67,750 to 67,999.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $68,000 to 68,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $68,250 to 68,499.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $68,500 to 68,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $68,750 to 68,999.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,000 to 69,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,250 to 69,499.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,500 to 69,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,750 to 69,999.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,000 to 70,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,250 to 70,499.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,500 to 70,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,750 to 70,999.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,000 to 71,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,250 to 71,499.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,500 to 71,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,750 to 71,999.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,000 to 72,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,250 to 72,499.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,500 to 72,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,750 to 72,999.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,000 to 73,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,250 to 73,499.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,500 to 73,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,750 to 73,999.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,000 to 74,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,250 to 74,499.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,500 to 74,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,750 to 74,999.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,000 to 75,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,250 to 75,499.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $57,249.99 or below | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
As of February 24, 2026, discussions surrounding Bitcoin's price were dominated by a prevailing bearish sentiment, with the cryptocurrency experiencing a significant downturn [^]. Bitcoin was trading around $63,000, reflecting a 3.04% dip over the past 24 hours and a nearly 30% monthly decline [^]. This decline was attributed to several factors, including a "risk-off" sentiment in global markets exacerbated by new U.S [^].
4. Is Research Data Currently Unavailable Due to a Gateway Error?
| Status | Service Unavailable (502 Bad Gateway) |
|---|---|
| Request ID | 9d3477fc2dec1672-BOM |
| Troubleshooting | Refer to Render.com documentation |
Data acquisition for the requested research encountered a critical error. The processing of the requested research could not be completed successfully, attributed to a 502 Bad Gateway error. This error indicates that the service intended to provide the necessary research data is currently unavailable, preventing the retrieval of any information.
Further attempts are recommended after a brief waiting period. It is advised to try requesting the data again in a few minutes, as the service may become operational. For site owners experiencing this particular issue, Render's documentation provides specific troubleshooting guidance for resolving 502 Bad Gateway errors.
5. What happened with the research findings for this request?
| Research Status | Error during research request (502 Bad Gateway) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Action Recommended | Please try the research request again later |
Research findings on Bitcoin flow are currently unavailable due to a server error. The requested analysis regarding the net Bitcoin flow for all exchanges between 12pm and 7pm EST on February 24th, and any evidence of wallets holding over 1,000 BTC significantly increasing their balances from exchange outflows during this period, could not be retrieved.
A '502 Bad Gateway' error prevented access to the required data. This technical issue indicates that the server acting as a gateway or proxy received an invalid response from an upstream server. As a result, the service responsible for fetching the necessary research data was unavailable, precluding the extraction of specific data points or detailed summary paragraphs from Glassnode or CryptoQuant.
6. Why Did the Research Query Encounter a Bad Gateway Error?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | 502 Bad Gateway |
| Data Retrieved | None |
The research query encountered a critical '502 Bad Gateway' error. This error signifies that the requested service was temporarily unavailable. Technically, it indicates that a server operating as a gateway or proxy received an invalid response from an upstream server.
Consequently, no relevant data or research findings were extracted. Due to this error, the system received an HTML error page instead of the expected content from the requested source. Users are therefore advised to retry the query after a few minutes, while site owners are directed to specific troubleshooting documentation.
7. Research Failed: What Information Can Be Extracted?
| Data Point 1 | No data available due to research error |
|---|---|
| Data Point 2 | No data available due to research error |
| Data Point 3 | No data available due to research error |
Technical difficulties prevented access to specific research findings. The research process encountered a '502 Bad Gateway' error, which indicated that the service was temporarily unavailable. Consequently, no specific findings or relevant information could be extracted from the intended content. This issue suggests a technical problem with the research service itself, rather than a lack of information on the topic.
Analysis of funding rates and open interest remains unfeasible. Without access to the actual research findings, it is currently impossible to summarize key data points, identify trends, or draw any conclusions regarding the predicted funding rate or open interest dynamics for the 00:00 UTC (8 PM EST) reset. The error message explicitly recommended retrying the research at a later time to obtain the necessary content.
8. Was there an error retrieving the requested research data?
| Research Status | Failed to retrieve information |
|---|---|
| Error Type | 502 Bad Gateway |
| Reason | Service currently unavailable |
The research query encountered a '502 Bad Gateway' error. During execution, the research query encountered a '502 Bad Gateway' error, which indicates that the service responsible for retrieving the requested information was unavailable. This prevented the system from processing the request as intended.
No specific findings were extracted due to this issue. Consequently, no specific findings, data points, or detailed information could be extracted regarding unscheduled White House statements on new tariffs or comments by incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on monetary policy between 4pm EST and 8pm EST. The system was unable to establish a valid connection to the upstream server required to fulfill the request.
Retrying the query is recommended, as the issue may be temporary. It is advised to reattempt the query after a few minutes, as this service interruption may be temporary. Should the problem persist, it would suggest a more prolonged service interruption.
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Market Catalysts
Potential bullish catalysts for Bitcoin's price leading up to February 24, 2026, included increased institutional adoption, evidenced by sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs), and positive regulatory developments. Clear, innovation-friendly frameworks globally, such as MiCA in Europe or bipartisan legislation in the U.S., were anticipated to boost investor confidence and facilitate deeper integration with traditional finance. A shift towards accommodative monetary policies by central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, through interest rate cuts or quantitative easing, was also expected to enhance Bitcoin's attractiveness as a macro asset [^].
Conversely, several bearish factors exerted significant downward pressure. Persistent net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, totaling approximately $4.5 billion year-to-date by February 2026, signaled waning institutional demand. Unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, such as a "higher for longer" interest rate stance, sticky inflation, and escalating geopolitical tensions, dampened risk appetite. Increased regulatory scrutiny or restrictive policies further eroded market sentiment, while large-scale liquidations, including a -6.05σ move on February 5, 2026, underscored heightened market volatility and a "historic $2.3 billion capitulation" by short-term holders [^].
The period also saw specific market events contributing to the bearish trend, including Bitcoin falling below $70,000 and trading near $61,000 in early February 2026, ultimately settling below $63,000 by February 24, 2026. This extended a four-month losing streak, representing a 50% decline from its October 2025 peak of $126,000. Macroeconomic uncertainty, including the impact of U.S. tariffs, and continued ETF outflows were cited as immediate drivers of this bearish sentiment, aligning with some analysts'
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: February 25, 2026
- Expiration: March 04, 2026
- Closes: February 25, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Potential bullish catalysts for Bitcoin's price leading up to February 24, 2026, included increased institutional adoption, evidenced by sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs), and positive regulatory developments.
- Trigger: Clear, innovation-friendly frameworks globally, such as MiCA in Europe or bipartisan legislation in the U.S., were anticipated to boost investor confidence and facilitate deeper integration with traditional finance.
- Trigger: A shift towards accommodative monetary policies by central banks, particularly the U.S.
- Trigger: Federal Reserve, through interest rate cuts or quantitative easing, was also expected to enhance Bitcoin's attractiveness as a macro asset [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 49 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTC-26FEB2423-T75499.99: NO (Feb 25, 2026)
- KXBTC-26FEB2423-T57250: NO (Feb 25, 2026)
- KXBTC-26FEB2423-B75375: NO (Feb 25, 2026)
- KXBTC-26FEB2423-B75125: NO (Feb 25, 2026)
- KXBTC-26FEB2423-B74875: NO (Feb 25, 2026)
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