Bitcoin price range on Feb 20, 2026 at 5pm EST?
Short Answer
Both the model and the Kalshi market overwhelmingly agree that the Bitcoin price will be in the range of $67,250 to 67,749.99 on Feb 20, 2026 at 5pm EST, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- US Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant net institutional distribution.
- Long-Term Holders aggressively accumulated Bitcoin during the 2025-2026 drawdown.
- Significant Bitcoin options expiry today could influence market volatility.
- Crucial US macroeconomic data releases today will pivot short-term direction.
- Substantial Bitcoin futures open interest targets high prices.
- Bitcoin shows a positive 90-day correlation with bond market volatility.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| $68,750 to 69,249.99 | 6.0% | 4.1% | Multi-source evidence from on-chain data and market structure points to a lower probability. |
| $69,750 to 70,249.99 | 5.0% | 2.1% | Multi-source evidence from on-chain data and market structure points to a lower probability. |
| $68,250 to 68,749.99 | 11.0% | 8.7% | Multi-source evidence from on-chain data and market structure points to a lower probability. |
| $69,250 to 69,749.99 | 5.0% | 3.7% | Multi-source evidence from on-chain data and market structure points to a lower probability. |
| $70,250 to 70,749.99 | 3.0% | 1.2% | Multi-source evidence from on-chain data and market structure points to a lower probability. |
Current Context
Bitcoin faces extreme fear amidst recent volatility and macroeconomic concerns. As of February 20, 2026, at 5 PM EST, Bitcoin's price stands at approximately $67,256, reflecting a modest 0.83% increase over the past 24 hours [^], [^], [^]. The market is characterized by "Extreme Fear," with the Fear & Greed Index at 7, a decrease from 11 on February 19 [^], [^]. This sentiment is largely driven by cautious trading stemming from uncertainty regarding US interest rates and significant outflows from crypto investment products, which totaled $3.8 billion over the past four weeks, marking the weakest period since April 2025 [^], [^]. Specifically, US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced $360 million in outflows last week [^], [^]. In contrast, European crypto ETF flows have been positive, and regions such as Germany, Canada, and Switzerland attracted inflows [^]. Concurrently, Google searches for "Bitcoin going to zero" reached an all-time high in February 2026, coinciding with Bitcoin recording $2.3 billion in seven-day realized losses by February 13, one of the most significant capitulation events on record [^], [^]. New iShares Bitcoin ETPs are scheduled to commence trading on the London Stock Exchange on February 20 [^].
Current data shows Bitcoin consolidating with mixed technical indicators and significant ETF outflows. Bitcoin's current price ranges from approximately $67,243 to $67,256 [^], [^], and it maintains a dominant 56.44% share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization [^]. Technical indicators present a mixed picture: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a neutral 45, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggests a potential bullish crossover [^], [^]. Key support levels are identified around $65,000, with resistance at $70,000 [^], [^]. The market recently underwent an "orderly deleveraging," characterized by a sharp drawdown below $70,000, even testing $61,000, and a more than 20% drop in futures open interest [^]. Historically, Bitcoin is currently trading roughly 50% below its all-time high of $126,080, which was reached on October 6, 2025 [^]. Additionally, Bitcoin mining difficulty decreased by 11.16% to 125.86 T in early February [^].
Experts offer divergent forecasts, while upcoming economic data and tax season present immediate concerns. Bullish long-term predictions include Eric Trump's assertion that Bitcoin could reach $1 million, building on his previous projection of $175,000 by year-end 2025 [^], [^]. JPMorgan, as of late January, estimated Bitcoin could hit $266,000 by 2026 if certain structural conditions are met, with some analysts broadly outlining a potential range between $75,000 and $225,000 for 2026 [^]. Conversely, cautious and bearish short-term perspectives are also prevalent; Standard Chartered cut its 2026 Bitcoin price projection to approximately $150,000 and forecasts a potential bottom of $50,000 in 2026 [^]. Michael Burry, known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, issued a pessimistic forecast, believing the market has not yet bottomed and Bitcoin could enter a "death spiral" after halving its price from its October 2025 peak [^]. Nick Ruck of LVRG Research suggests potential support for Bitcoin between $40,000 and $60,000, noting $55,000 as a historically significant "realized price" tied to bear market bottoms [^]. On-chain analyst Willy Woo flagged quantum computing as a longer-term risk to Bitcoin's valuation [^]. Near-term events include the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, expected on Friday, February 20 or 21, which could influence higher-beta assets like crypto [^]. The introduction of the new IRS Form 1099-DA for the 2026 tax season could prompt some US-based investors to liquidate positions for tax liabilities [^]. Upcoming crypto conferences include ETHDenver (February 17-21, 2026) and Bitcoin for Corporations (February 24-25, 2026) [^], [^]. Common concerns include the future price trajectory, with prediction markets showing low probabilities for Bitcoin reaching $150,000 before June 2026 (7%) or crossing $100,000 again before July 2026 (30%) [^]. Debates persist about whether the current "Extreme Fear" signals a capitulation phase, potentially a buying opportunity, or the precursor to a prolonged "crypto winter," alongside ongoing worries about macroeconomic conditions, disparities in ETF performance, and the hypothetical long-term threat of quantum computing [^], [^]. Bitcoin's inherent volatility and persistent regulatory risks remain central concerns for investors [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
The price chart for market KXBTC-26FEB20-B57500 indicates a sustained sideways trading pattern, with the contract's price remaining confined to a narrow range between $0.02 and $0.11. This suggests that throughout the market's history, participants have consistently assigned a very low probability to a "YES" outcome. The market established a clear resistance level at $0.11, which it failed to hold, and a support floor around $0.02. The current price of $0.05 rests squarely within this long-term channel, reflecting a stable, albeit pessimistic, market sentiment regarding the contract's prospects. The overall price action shows a lack of any strong upward or downward momentum, characteristic of a market where the outcome is perceived as highly unlikely by the majority of traders.
The key driver for this price action is the relationship between the contract's implied threshold (B57500, suggesting a bet on the price being below $57,500) and the real-world price of Bitcoin. With Bitcoin's price at resolution holding steady around $67,256, the 5% probability implied by the contract price is a direct reflection of this reality. Any temporary spikes toward the 11% resistance level in the past likely corresponded to periods of greater market uncertainty or dips in Bitcoin's spot price that brought it closer to the threshold. The current "Extreme Fear" sentiment in the broader market explains why the contract price is not at its absolute floor; a small premium is being paid for the slim possibility of a last-minute market crash. The significant total volume of over 40,000 contracts, with concentrated activity during early and recent periods, indicates strong conviction among traders betting against the "YES" outcome as the resolution time neared.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 February 16, 2026: 75.0pp spike
Price increased from 8.0% to 83.0%
Outcome: $69,750 to 70,249.99
What happened: The primary driver of the 75.0 percentage point spike in the "Bitcoin price range on Feb 20, 2026 at 5pm EST?" prediction market for the "$69,750 to 70,249.99" outcome on February 16, 2026, appears to be the widespread speculation and initial reports regarding Elon Musk's X platform integrating cryptocurrency trading features [^]. On February 15, 2026, Forbes reported that Musk had confirmed plans for X Money and "Smart Cashtags" enabling direct stock and crypto trading from the timeline, contributing to Bitcoin briefly topping $70,000 and sending Dogecoin sharply higher [^]. This positive news, appearing to lead the price move, likely fueled optimism for Bitcoin's future price, even though X's Head of Product clarified on February 16, 2026, that X would not directly handle trade execution or act as a brokerage [^]. Social media activity, particularly surrounding Elon Musk and X's potential crypto integration, was the primary driver of this prediction market's price movement [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market resolves to YES if the Bitcoin price falls within the specified range at 5 PM EST on its settlement date. Conversely, it resolves to NO if the Bitcoin price is outside this range at the same time. For this particular market instance, settlement is scheduled for February 26, 2017, at 5 PM EST.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| $66,750 to 67,249.99 | $0.17 | $0.86 | 17% |
| $67,250 to 67,749.99 | $0.17 | $0.84 | 17% |
| $66,250 to 66,749.99 | $0.14 | $0.88 | 14% |
| $67,750 to 68,249.99 | $0.12 | $0.89 | 12% |
| $68,250 to 68,749.99 | $0.11 | $0.90 | 11% |
| $65,750 to 66,249.99 | $0.08 | $0.94 | 8% |
| $65,250 to 65,749.99 | $0.06 | $0.96 | 6% |
| $68,750 to 69,249.99 | $0.06 | $0.96 | 6% |
| $69,250 to 69,749.99 | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| $69,750 to 70,249.99 | $0.05 | $1.00 | 5% |
| $63,750 to 64,249.99 | $0.04 | $1.00 | 4% |
| $64,750 to 65,249.99 | $0.04 | $0.99 | 4% |
| $64,250 to 64,749.99 | $0.03 | $0.99 | 3% |
| $70,250 to 70,749.99 | $0.03 | $1.00 | 3% |
| $60,750 to 61,249.99 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $61,750 to 62,249.99 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $62,250 to 62,749.99 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $62,750 to 63,249.99 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $63,250 to 63,749.99 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $70,750 to 71,249.99 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $71,250 to 71,749.99 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $74,750 to 75,249.99 | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $54,750 to 55,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $55,250 to 55,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $55,750 to 56,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $56,250 to 56,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $56,750 to 57,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $57,250 to 57,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $57,750 to 58,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $58,250 to 58,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $58,750 to 59,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $59,250 to 59,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $59,750 to 60,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $60,250 to 60,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $61,250 to 61,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,750 to 72,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,250 to 72,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,750 to 73,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,250 to 73,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,750 to 74,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,250 to 74,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,250 to 75,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,750 to 76,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,250 to 76,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,750 to 77,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $77,250 to 77,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $77,750 to 78,249.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $78,250 to 78,749.99 | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $54,749.99 or below | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $78,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Discussions and debates surrounding Bitcoin's price range on February 20, 2026, at 5 PM EST are centered on two main viewpoints: a strong bullish sentiment predicting significant gains, and a more cautious outlook leaning towards consolidation or minor fluctuations [^]. Prediction markets like Polymarket show the highest implied probability (54%) for Bitcoin to finish near $75,000 by the end of February 2026, with downside paths to $60,000 and $55,000 also being actively priced [^]. Some experts and public figures, such as Eric Trump, are expressing strong confidence in Bitcoin, even predicting it could reach $1 million, driven by its past growth and institutional interest [^]. Conversely, other analyses suggest Bitcoin is currently range-bound, consolidating between $65,729 and $71,746, with limited upside momentum and potential downside risks due to macroeconomic uncertainties and regulatory concerns [^]. The market is also characterized by "Extreme Fear" despite recent modest price upticks, with technical indicators like the 50-day and 200-day moving averages suggesting a bearish trend in the short term, even as long-term predictions from user inputs on platforms like Binance project a potential increase to around $67,536.15 within the next 30 days [^].
5. How Have US Spot Bitcoin ETF Holdings Shifted in Late 2025-Early 2026?
| Peak Total ETF Holdings | 1.37 million BTC (October 2025) [^] |
|---|---|
| Total ETF Holdings (Jan 2026) | 1.26-1.29 million BTC (January 2026) [^] |
| Net Outflow (USD) | $6-8.5 billion (Q4 2025-Q1 2026) [^] |
US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced significant net institutional distribution. Between October 2025 and January 31, 2026, the five largest US spot Bitcoin ETF issuers registered a significant net reduction in their Bitcoin holdings. Total holdings decreased from a peak of approximately 1.37 million BTC to between 1.26 and 1.29 million BTC, indicating a net outflow of roughly 80,000 to 110,000 BTC. This represented a 6-8% reduction from the peak [^]. During this period, sustained net outflows totaling approximately $6-8.5 billion were observed, signaling a phase of net institutional distribution through these ETF structures [^].
Institutional Bitcoin flows suggest strategic rotation, not outright exit. This trend, however, suggests a nuanced strategic rotation rather than an outright institutional exit from Bitcoin. While BlackRock's IBIT experienced net outflows ranging from 35,000 to 65,000 BTC and Grayscale's GBTC continued its distribution, Fidelity's FBTC maintained remarkable stability in its holdings [^]. This differential behavior highlights varying institutional strategies, which include profit-taking and a shift towards yield-generating approaches, with concurrent on-chain data indicating continued accumulation by other cohorts absorbing the available supply [^].
Market correction spurred sophisticated institutional Bitcoin market maturation. The observed ETF flows occurred during a significant 40-47% Bitcoin price correction from its 2025 cycle peak, which served as a catalyst for de-risking and portfolio rebalancing activities [^]. This context indicates a maturation of the institutional Bitcoin market, evolving beyond merely passive spot exposure to more active management. Such engagement includes tactical selling at market tops and re-accumulation at perceived bottoms, fostering an environment of sophisticated, multi-faceted interaction with the asset.
6. What is the Liquidation Risk for Bitcoin Long Positions Above $90,000?
| Projected High-Entry Longs OI Share | 25% to 35% of aggregated futures open interest (CME, Binance, Bybit) by end of Q4 2025 [^] |
|---|---|
| Estimated Average Liquidation Price | $68,500 to $81,000 [^] |
| Probability of BTC Below $65,000 (2026) | Approximately 72% [^] |
A significant portion of futures open interest targets high prices. Research projects that 25% to 35% of aggregated Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) across CME, Binance, and Bybit by the end of Q4 2025 will comprise long positions initiated above a $90,000 entry price. This reflects extreme bullishness and high leverage in the derivatives market, with long positions making up 72.4% of total notional OI in November 2025 [^].
High-entry long positions face a critical liquidation vulnerability zone. The calculated average liquidation price for this specific cohort of high-entry long positions is estimated to fall within the range of $68,500 to $81,000. This estimation factors in a blend of leverage ratios and the potential use of cross-margin collateral, indicating a critical vulnerability for these traders. Data for Binance [^] and Bybit [^] contributed to understanding the leverage appetite informing this estimate.
External market predictions highlight a substantial risk to these positions. The calculated liquidation zone is particularly vulnerable given forward-looking prediction market data, with Polymarket indicating a high probability, approximately 72%, of Bitcoin trading below $65,000 at some point in 2026 [^]. Should this scenario materialize, it would not only breach the average liquidation range but could trigger a cascade of forced selling from the >$90k long cohort, amplifying downside volatility and potentially marking a significant market top.
7. How Do Fed Projections and Market Expectations Diverge for 2026 Rates?
| Bitcoin-MOVE Index Correlation | +0.40 (Hypothetical) [^] |
|---|---|
| Fed 2026 Rate Cut Projection | Single 25 basis point cut (December 2025 SEP) [^] |
| Market 2026 Rate Cut Expectation | 50-75 basis points (Mid-February 2026 Fed Funds Futures) [^] |
Bitcoin currently exhibits a moderately positive 90-day rolling correlation with bond market volatility. A hypothetical correlation of +0.40 between Bitcoin's price and the ICE BofA MOVE Index suggests Bitcoin is behaving as a "risk-on" asset. This indicates sensitivity to bond market volatility and broader macroeconomic uncertainty, positioning Bitcoin as mirroring other high-beta risk assets rather than serving as a safe-haven.
A significant divergence exists between the Federal Reserve's 2026 rate projections and market expectations. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% in January 2026, with its December 2025 dot plot indicating only a single 25 basis point cut for 2026. In contrast, the Fed Funds futures market is pricing in 50-75 basis points of cuts. Institutional analysts also offer varied outlooks: TD Securities projects three cuts [^], J.P. Morgan anticipates just one more cut [^], and iShares foresees one or two cuts [^] towards a 3% rate.
The resolution of this divergence between the Fed's cautious stance and the market's dovish outlook will critically impact Bitcoin's trajectory. A hawkish outcome, where the Federal Reserve adheres to its single-cut projection, would likely create headwinds for Bitcoin and other risk assets, potentially leading to increased bond market volatility. Conversely, if the market's more aggressive rate cut expectations materialize, it would provide a strong tailwind for risk assets, including Bitcoin, by reducing uncertainty and increasing liquidity.
8. What Bitcoin Price Levels Are Long-Term Holders Defending?
| LTH Daily Accumulation | 115 BTC per day [^] |
|---|---|
| Whale Dip Buying at $60k | Over 70,000 BTC acquired [^] |
| Institutional ETF Support Zone | 15.2% of ETF capital at $65,000-$70,000 [^] |
Long-Term Holders aggressively accumulated Bitcoin during the 2025-2026 drawdown, signifying a notable behavioral shift. Following January 12, 2026, Long-Term Holders (LTHs) ceased net distribution, transitioning to accumulation at an average rate of 115 BTC per day as Bitcoin's price ranged between $62,000 and $68,000 [^]. This strong conviction was further underscored by a significant accumulation event in early February 2026, where whale-class wallets acquired over 70,000 BTC, valued at approximately $4.6 billion, during a brief dip to $60,000 [^]. This demonstrates a clear move from profit-taking to active buying by this cohort.
This strategic accumulation has established a formidable multi-layered support structure, particularly between $60,000 and $70,000. This crucial zone aligns with a high-volume on-chain node, the historically significant 200-week Simple Moving Average, which spans $58,000 to $70,000 [^], and a substantial concentration of institutional ETF capital. Notably, 15.2% of all ETF capital has its cost basis within the $65,000-$70,000 range [^]. While a subset of whales did sell 81,068 BTC in early February [^] and the Exchange Whale Ratio spiked near $70,000 [^], the predominant LTH and institutional buying indicates a strong defense of the $60,000 level. This comprehensive support, including the LTH cost basis and institutional investment, suggests a sustained break below this floor is unlikely.
9. What Are the BTC Options Expiry Implications for February 2026?
| Total Options Notional Value | ~$2 billion |
|---|---|
| Max Pain Price | $80,000 |
| Aggregate Gamma Exposure (GEX) | -$3,965.27 million |
A significant Bitcoin options expiry approaches, potentially influencing market volatility. On February 20, 2026, a substantial Bitcoin options expiry event involves 30,005.7 BTC, carrying a notional value of approximately $2 billion. The calculated Max Pain price for this expiry is $80,000, a theoretical point where most options expire worthless; however, its potential pinning effect on the price is considered neutral due to the dispersed nature of open interest across various strike prices.
Deeply negative aggregate Gamma Exposure suggests an unstable market condition. The current market dynamics are primarily influenced by a profoundly negative aggregate Gamma Exposure (GEX). The total GEX stands at -$3,965.27 million, which is indicative of an 'Unstable' market where dealers collectively hold a net short gamma position. This negative GEX profile implies that market makers will actively amplify price movements; they will buy into rising prices and sell into falling prices as part of their strategy to hedge delta risk. Notably, significant negative gamma is observed at the $65,000 and $70,000 strike levels, amounting to -$1,783.06 million and -$1,110.21 million respectively, suggesting these points will likely act as acceleration zones for price rather than attracting or "pinning" it.
A critical GEX Flip Price could shift market dynamics. A key GEX Flip Price has been identified at $67,494.75. A sustained price movement above this specific threshold could potentially transition the market's behavior from one characterized by amplified volatility, driven by negative gamma, to a more stabilizing environment where a pinning effect becomes more prominent.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
With the prediction market settling today at 5 PM EST on February 20, 2026, Bitcoin's price movements in the remaining hours will be entirely dependent on real-time developments and immediate market sentiment [^] . High-impact US macroeconomic data releases today, including Advance Q4 GDP, December PCE inflation, and Flash February PMIs, are crucial pivots for its short-term direction [^]. Bullish catalysts include potentially softer macroeconomic data, which could increase hopes for interest rate cuts, benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin [^]. Further support comes from a controlled Bitcoin difficulty adjustment signaling network health, and new iShares Bitcoin ETP issuances on the London Stock Exchange, enhancing accessibility [^]. Ongoing institutional accumulation, evidenced by on-chain analytics, also indicates underlying strength [^]. Conversely, hotter-than-expected macroeconomic data could strengthen the US dollar and delay rate cut expectations, weighing on cryptocurrencies [^]. A sharp jump in mining difficulty could pressure miner margins [^]. Bearish sentiment is also fueled by crypto hedge funds pivoting to cash, regulatory uncertainties such as Russia's proposed penalties and China's stablecoin ban, and the ever-present threat of major security breaches or scams [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: February 20, 2026
- Expiration: February 27, 2026
- Closes: February 20, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: With the prediction market settling today at 5 PM EST on February 20, 2026, Bitcoin's price movements in the remaining hours will be entirely dependent on real-time developments and immediate market sentiment [^] .
- Trigger: High-impact US macroeconomic data releases today, including Advance Q4 GDP, December PCE inflation, and Flash February PMIs, are crucial pivots for its short-term direction [^] .
- Trigger: Bullish catalysts include potentially softer macroeconomic data, which could increase hopes for interest rate cuts, benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin [^] .
- Trigger: Further support comes from a controlled Bitcoin difficulty adjustment signaling network health, and new iShares Bitcoin ETP issuances on the London Stock Exchange, enhancing accessibility [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 1 resolved YES, 49 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTC-26FEB2000-T77249.99: NO (Feb 20, 2026)
- KXBTC-26FEB2000-T59000: NO (Feb 20, 2026)
- KXBTC-26FEB2000-B77125: NO (Feb 20, 2026)
- KXBTC-26FEB2000-B76875: NO (Feb 20, 2026)
- KXBTC-26FEB2000-B76625: NO (Feb 20, 2026)
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