Bitcoin price on Feb 25, 2026 at 2pm EST?
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| $69,000 or above | 93.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| $68,500 or above | 99.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| $68,750 or above | 98.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| $69,250 or above | 80.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| $69,500 or above | 52.0% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| $53,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $54,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $54,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $54,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $54,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $55,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $55,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $55,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $55,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $56,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $56,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $56,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $56,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $57,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $57,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $57,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $57,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $58,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $58,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $58,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $58,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $66,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $66,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $66,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $66,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $67,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $67,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $67,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $67,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $68,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $68,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 100% |
| $68,500 or above | $0.99 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $68,750 or above | $0.98 | $0.03 | 98% |
| $69,000 or above | $0.93 | $0.08 | 93% |
| $69,250 or above | $0.80 | $0.22 | 80% |
| $69,500 or above | $0.52 | $0.49 | 52% |
| $69,750 or above | $0.24 | $0.78 | 24% |
| $70,000 or above | $0.10 | $0.91 | 10% |
| $70,250 or above | $0.05 | $0.97 | 5% |
| $70,500 or above | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| $70,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
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