Bitcoin price on Feb 22, 2026 at 9am EST?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Bitcoin's price to be $67,000 or above on Feb 22, 2026 at 9am EST, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| $67,750 or above | 1.0% | 90.0% | Current market sentiment indicates Bitcoin is unlikely to sustain this high level. |
| $68,000 or above | 1.0% | 80.0% | Market expectations do not support Bitcoin reaching this elevated price. |
| $67,500 or above | 1.0% | 97.5% | Market consensus strongly anticipates Bitcoin will trade at or above this value. |
| $68,250 or above | 1.0% | 70.0% | Analysts project Bitcoin is unlikely to reach such a significant valuation. |
| $67,250 or above | 1.0% | 99.5% | Current market trends firmly suggest Bitcoin will remain above this price point. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Based on the provided chart data, this prediction market shows a complete absence of price volatility. The price has remained static at $1.00, representing a 100% probability, from its opening to the present. Consequently, the overall trend is perfectly sideways or flat. With only two data points recorded, there are no significant price movements, spikes, or drops to analyze, indicating a period of absolute price stability since the market's inception.
The stability in price cannot be attributed to any specific news or developments, as no external context was provided. This lack of price change suggests that no new information has emerged to alter the market's initial assessment. Despite the static price, the market has seen a substantial total volume of 81,537 contracts traded. High volume occurring at a single price point typically signifies extremely strong conviction among participants. This pattern suggests that a large number of traders are actively reinforcing the 100% probability, with any potential sell orders being immediately absorbed by buyers.
The price of $1.00 acts as an absolute and untested support level, and technically also as the resistance, as the price has never moved. This singular price point is the only key level in this market. The chart indicates a market sentiment of complete and unwavering certainty. The 100% probability suggests that, in the collective view of traders, the event's outcome is considered a foregone conclusion. The high trading volume further solidifies this interpretation, reflecting a deep and widely held consensus.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The provided page content is only a market title ("Bitcoin price today at 9am EST? Odds & Predictions 2026"). It does not contain the necessary contract rules to determine the exact conditions for YES or NO resolution, key dates/deadlines, or any special settlement conditions. This information is typically found in a dedicated "Contract Rules" section on the market page.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| $58,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $66,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $66,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $66,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $66,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $67,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $67,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $67,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $67,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $68,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $68,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $68,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $68,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $77,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $77,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. Was the requested research information successfully retrieved?
| Research Status | Failed to retrieve (502 Bad Gateway) |
|---|---|
| Error Type | HTML Error Document |
| Data Extraction | Not possible due to source content |
Research concerning the aggregate Bitcoin holdings reported in the Q4 2025 SEC 13F filings for the top five US spot Bitcoin ETF issuers could not be processed due to a technical error. The system encountered a '502 Bad Gateway' error, meaning an HTML error page was received instead of the expected data. This critical service issue prevented the extraction of any meaningful information needed to assess institutional accumulation velocity.
Consequently, no specific findings, data points, or analytical summaries could be generated from the attempted research. The content of the HTML error page indicated a temporary service unavailability, directly hindering the ability to compare Q4 2025 holdings with Q4 2024 figures. Users are advised to retry the request later, and site owners should consult troubleshooting documentation.
5. Research Extraction Failed: Was a Bad Gateway Error Encountered?
| Status | Error |
|---|---|
| Error Type | 502 Bad Gateway |
| Details | Service currently unavailable |
Research content on Bitcoin's future regulatory framework is currently unavailable. The specific legislative and regulatory framework anticipated to govern Bitcoin in the US by the end of 2025, including whether the CFTC will gain primary authority under new legislation like FIT21 or if the SEC's current Howey Test-driven enforcement will remain dominant for the broader crypto ecosystem, could not be extracted at this time.
Data extraction failed due to a server communication error. During the attempt to access the research findings, a "502 Bad Gateway" error was encountered. This technical issue commonly indicates that a server did not receive a valid or timely response from another server it was trying to connect with to load the requested information.
This problem suggests the research service is temporarily inaccessible. The current unavailability of the service prevented the retrieval of the required data. It is advised to re-perform the research query after a short waiting period to determine if the reported issue has been resolved.
6. Why Did the Research Request Encounter an Error?
| Status Code | 502 Bad Gateway (Render.com) |
|---|---|
| Error Message | This service is currently unavailable. |
| Request ID | 9d1fae70eee03511-LAX (Render.com) |
Research efforts were obstructed by a technical service error. The research request encountered a '502 Bad Gateway' error, indicating that the service responsible for providing the necessary research output was currently unavailable. This technical issue directly prevented the execution of the requested analysis concerning Bitcoin miner wallet behavior and their aggregate net position post-halving.
No specific findings or data could be extracted. Consequently, there are no specific findings, data points, or analytical summaries available related to how the on-chain behavior of Bitcoin miner wallets might evolve in the 18-month period following the April 2024 halving, nor regarding sustained accumulation patterns. It is recommended to reattempt the research request after some time, as the error message suggests the service may become available later.
7. Why is the Requested Service Currently Unavailable?
| Service Status | Currently Unavailable |
|---|---|
| Error Code | 502 Bad Gateway |
| Troubleshooting Info | Refer to Render's documentation |
The research process experienced a significant technical disruption. Analysis aimed at forecasting potential enforcement actions or de-pegging events for Tether (USDT) or Circle (USDC) before 2026 was impeded by a '502 Bad Gateway' error. This specific error indicates that the requested service became unavailable during the research execution. It typically occurs when a server receives an invalid response from an upstream server, preventing the successful completion of the research query.
Immediate reattempt or server owner consultation is recommended. Users are advised to attempt their request again after a few minutes, as the service unavailability might be temporary. For site owners, it is recommended to consult Render's documentation for troubleshooting guidance specifically related to 502 Bad Gateway errors, to address the underlying server-side issue.
8. Why Was Research Data Unavailable Due to a Gateway Error?
| Error Type | 502 Bad Gateway |
|---|---|
| Service Status | Currently unavailable |
| Request ID | 9d1fae6daf2de9e5-LAX |
The attempt to retrieve research findings was unsuccessful, encountering a '502 Bad Gateway' error. This technical issue indicates that the information service is presently unavailable. Users are advised to try retrieving the research findings again after a few minutes.
For site owners, the error page offered specific guidance for troubleshooting. It suggested referring to Render’s documentation to resolve this particular issue. The associated request ID for this failed attempt was '9d1fae6daf2de9e5-LAX'.
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis not available.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: February 22, 2026
- Expiration: March 01, 2026
- Closes: February 22, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis not available.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 40 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTCD-26FEB2210-T77249.99: NO (Feb 22, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB2210-T76999.99: NO (Feb 22, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB2210-T76749.99: NO (Feb 22, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB2210-T76499.99: NO (Feb 22, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB2210-T76249.99: NO (Feb 22, 2026)
Get Real-Time Research Updates
Sign up for early access to live reports, historical data, and AI-powered market insights delivered to your inbox.
