Bitcoin price on Feb 22, 2026 at 5pm EST?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that the Bitcoin price will be $65,500 or above on Feb 22, 2026 at 5pm EST, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Internal server errors prevented access to comprehensive market research data.
- Key catalyst analysis findings were also not available for review.
- Market probability fell sharply by 29 points on February 22, 2026.
- A significant 12-point probability drop occurred on February 21, 2026.
- Model and current market probabilities show no implied gap.
- The prediction market concludes today, February 22, at 5 PM EST.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| $68,000 or above | 27.0% | 26.5% | Continued institutional adoption and ETF inflows could drive Bitcoin above $68,000. |
| $67,500 or above | 56.0% | 55.0% | Halving event impact and increasing global demand could push Bitcoin above $67,500. |
| $68,500 or above | 11.0% | 10.5% | Favorable macroeconomic conditions and growing utility could push Bitcoin above $68,500. |
| $70,000 or above | 1.0% | 0.5% | A significant supply shock post-halving could drive prices above $70,000 amid strong demand. |
| $67,000 or above | 82.0% | 81.0% | Bitcoin's growing scarcity and digital gold narrative supports a valuation above $67,000. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has demonstrated a consistent downward trend, with the implied probability of a 'YES' outcome falling from an opening of 49.0% to a current low of 26.0%. The decline has been punctuated by two significant downward movements in the final days of trading: a 12.0 percentage point drop on February 21, followed by a much sharper 29.0 percentage point collapse on February 22. This price action indicates that market sentiment has turned decisively negative, with participants aggressively lowering their expectations for the contract to resolve to 'YES'.
The provided context offers no specific news or fundamental developments to explain the catalysts for the sharp price drops on February 21 and 22. Analysis of trading volume, which totals 136,318 contracts, shows a pattern of increasing activity during the decline. The recent drop to 26.0% was accompanied by higher volume than seen in earlier, more stable periods, suggesting strong conviction behind the recent selling pressure. In terms of key price levels, the market failed to sustain prices above the 61.0-65.0% range, which acted as resistance. The previous area of stability around 49.0-50.0% has been broken, and with the current price at an all-time low of 26.0%, the market is now searching for a new support level.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 February 22, 2026: 29.0pp drop
Price decreased from 55.0% to 26.0%
Outcome: $68,000 or above
What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}
📉 February 21, 2026: 12.0pp drop
Price decreased from 61.0% to 49.0%
Outcome: $68,000 or above
What happened: Unable to research: 429 RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED. {'error': {'code': 429, 'message': 'You exceeded your current quota, please check your plan and billing details. For more information on this error, head to: https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits. To monitor your current usage, head to: https://ai.dev/rate-limit. ', 'status': 'RESOURCE_EXHAUSTED', 'details': [{'@type': 'type.googleapis.com/google.rpc.Help', 'links': [{'description': 'Learn more about Gemini API quotas', 'url': 'https://ai.google.dev/gemini-api/docs/rate-limits'}]}]}}
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market concerns the Bitcoin price at 5pm EST today. The specific condition for a YES or NO resolution, such as a price threshold, is not detailed in the provided content. No special settlement conditions are mentioned.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| $58,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $58,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 100% |
| $64,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 100% |
| $65,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 100% |
| $65,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $66,000 or above | $0.98 | $0.03 | 98% |
| $66,500 or above | $0.94 | $0.07 | 94% |
| $67,000 or above | $0.82 | $0.20 | 82% |
| $67,500 or above | $0.56 | $0.46 | 56% |
| $68,000 or above | $0.27 | $0.74 | 27% |
| $68,500 or above | $0.11 | $0.90 | 11% |
| $69,000 or above | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| $69,500 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $70,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $77,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $77,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
5. Why Was Research Data Unavailable Due to Server Error?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Retrieved | None |
| Action Required | Retry research query |
An internal server error prevented the research completion. An internal server error occurred during the attempt to research the requested question, specifically concerning the cumulative net flow into the top five US Spot Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT, FBTC, BITB, ARKB, BTCO) for the calendar year 2025, and its trajectory compared to the total cumulative net flow from their inception through the end of 2024. This issue prevented the system from accessing or processing any relevant information, thereby hindering the research process.
Consequently, no findings or data could be generated. As a direct result of the aforementioned server error, no specific findings, data points, or analytical summaries could be generated. The research operation was incomplete, rendering it unable to provide insights into the requested financial flows.
6. Why Was Research Unsuccessful Due To An Internal Server Error?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Information Retrieved | N/A |
An internal server error prevented retrieval of requested market probability data. The research process encountered an internal server error, which directly prevented the retrieval of any specific findings or data regarding the market-implied probability for the target federal funds rate. This issue was identified as a problem originating on the server's side rather than with the query itself, rendering it impossible to gather the requested information.
Consequently, no data points or insights could be extracted. As a direct result of the internal server error, no key data points, statistics, or detailed insights could be extracted from the CME FedWatch Tool's analysis of Fed Funds futures. Therefore, the requested information concerning the probability of the federal funds rate being at or below 3.50% following the final FOMC meeting of 2025 remains entirely unavailable at this time.
7. Why Was Research Data Not Available for This Request?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Information Retrieved | Zero findings |
Research completion was prevented by an internal server error. The requested analysis concerning the trend of the Bitcoin futures open interest to spot exchange reserves ratio throughout 2025, along with a comparison to pre-liquidation levels of May 2021 and November 2022, could not be finished. An internal server error occurred, which directly prevented the retrieval of any specific findings or data points related to the query.
No specific data or metrics are currently available. Consequently, no relevant information or key metrics can be provided at this time regarding the Bitcoin leverage metric. The system encountered an unexpected problem during the data collection phase, making it impossible to generate the requested summary.
8. Why Was Research Data Unavailable Due To An Internal Server Error?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Key Findings Extracted | 0 |
An internal server error prevented the retrieval of research findings. The research process encountered an 'Internal Server Error', which successfully prevented the retrieval of any specific findings, data points, or detailed information for the posed question. As a direct consequence, no content could be generated regarding market trends, economic indicators, or other relevant topics related to legislative proposals on digital asset market structure or stablecoins, including new restrictions on proof-of-work mining.
No data could be provided due to the system error. Due to this system error, it is not possible to provide the requested key data points, a comprehensive summary, or any inline citations. To obtain the necessary information, the research query would need to be re-attempted once the underlying server issue is resolved.
9. What Were the Outcomes of the Recent Research Inquiry?
| Research Status | Failed due to Internal Server Error |
|---|---|
| Data Retrieved | None |
| Citations Available | 0 |
A technical error prevented the retrieval of research findings. The research inquiry encountered an 'Internal Server Error' during its execution. This technical issue critically prevented the retrieval of any information or findings related to the initial question.
No specific data or analysis could be extracted. Consequently, no specific data points, metrics, or detailed explanations could be extracted from the research attempt. The system was unable to provide any content for analysis or summary.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis not available.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: February 22, 2026
- Expiration: March 01, 2026
- Closes: February 22, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis not available.
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 11 resolved YES, 39 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTCD-26FEB2212-T77249.99: NO (Feb 22, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB2212-T76999.99: NO (Feb 22, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB2212-T76749.99: NO (Feb 22, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB2212-T76499.99: NO (Feb 22, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB2212-T76249.99: NO (Feb 22, 2026)
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