Bitcoin price on Feb 22, 2026 at 12pm EST?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect the Bitcoin price to be $63,750 or above on Feb 22, 2026 at 12pm EST, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Executive Verdict
- Grounded research data is currently unavailable due to technical server errors.
- Technical issues prevented analysis of Bitcoin miner net position changes.
- CME FedWatch Tool probability analysis was also obstructed by errors.
- No specific key catalysts have been identified for this market yet.
- The Octagon model probability perfectly matches the current market assessment.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| $67,500 or above | 67.0% | 66.0% | Steady institutional investment and retail interest continue to buoy Bitcoin's value. |
| $68,000 or above | 3.0% | 2.5% | A significant bullish catalyst would be required to reach this valuation. |
| $67,750 or above | 19.0% | 18.5% | Sustained positive economic outlook could propel Bitcoin slightly higher. |
| $67,250 or above | 95.0% | 94.5% | Current adoption rates and network growth firmly establish Bitcoin above this mark. |
| $68,250 or above | 1.0% | 0.5% | Only a major market disruption could push Bitcoin beyond this point. |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Based on the provided chart data, the price action for this market has been completely static. The market opened at a price of $0.99 and has not deviated, resulting in a flat, sideways trend with a non-existent price range. As there has been no price movement, no technical support or resistance levels have been established. The current price of $0.99 is the only financial data point available for analysis.
There have been no significant price spikes or drops to analyze since the market's inception. The lack of price movement means there are no events on the chart to correlate with external factors. As no additional context or news has been provided, it is impossible to attribute any market activity to specific developments. Despite the static price, trading volume is substantial at 117,898 contracts. This high volume suggests that the initial price was established with a high degree of conviction and significant capital participation.
The market sentiment, as reflected by the price, is extremely bullish on the proposition. A stable price of $0.99 translates to a 99% perceived probability that the condition will be met and the market will resolve to YES. This indicates an overwhelming and unwavering consensus that Bitcoin's price will be above the $69,249.99 target on February 22, 2026. The high trading volume at this near-certain price point underscores the market's strong confidence in this outcome.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided page content "Bitcoin price today at 12pm EST? Odds & Predictions 2026":
This Kalshi market resolves based on the Bitcoin price at 12 PM EST today. The specific price condition that triggers a "YES" or "NO" resolution (e.g., above or below a certain value) is not detailed in the provided content. No special settlement conditions are mentioned, and the "2026" in the title is ambiguous regarding the market's resolution date.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| $58,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $66,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $66,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $66,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $66,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $67,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $67,250 or above | $0.95 | $0.06 | 95% |
| $67,500 or above | $0.67 | $0.35 | 67% |
| $67,750 or above | $0.19 | $0.82 | 19% |
| $68,000 or above | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| $68,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $68,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $68,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $77,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $77,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. Why Did the Research Encounter an Internal Server Error?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Availability | None |
The research could not produce findings due to a technical error. The research process encountered an internal server error, which prevented the extraction of any key findings or data points for the requested question regarding the cumulative net inflow into the top five U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs between their inception and the end of Q4 2025. This technical issue indicated a failure in retrieving the necessary information to generate a comprehensive report.
Specific insights, metrics, and summaries are currently unavailable. As a direct result of this error, no specific insights, metrics, or detailed summaries can be provided at this time concerning the Bitcoin ETF inflows. The lack of access to foundational data means no particular outcomes or analyses can be presented.
The query requires re-attempting once the server issue resolves. To obtain the desired research findings on the cumulative net inflow into the top five U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, the query would need to be re-attempted once the underlying server issue is fully resolved and data retrieval is possible.
5. Why Was Research Data Unavailable Due to Server Error?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Reason for Failure | Internal server-side issue |
Research completion was prevented by an internal server error. Due to an internal server error, the requested research concerning the public record and voting history of the confirmed SEC Chair and the chairs of the Senate Banking and House Financial Services committees regarding crypto market structure legislation could not be completed. This technical issue prevented the system from accessing and processing any information relevant to the question.
No specific data or findings could be generated. As a direct result of this server-side failure, no specific data points, key findings, or summary paragraphs could be generated. The entire research process was interrupted before any content could be retrieved or analyzed.
6. What Are the Implications of the Research Error?
| Research Outcome | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Availability | None |
| Reason | Server Error |
A technical server error interrupted the research process. The investigation into the 90-day moving average of the 'Miner Net Position Change' for the second half of 2025 was unfortunately halted. An internal server error occurred during the research, which directly prevented the retrieval of any specific findings or data pertinent to the inquiry.
Consequently, no information could be gathered or analyzed. This technical issue means that there are no key data points, comprehensive summaries, or detailed insights available for the specified period. The research system was therefore unable to successfully complete the assigned task, leaving the original question unaddressed with factual information.
7. What Was the Outcome of the Research Query?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Type | Internal Server Error |
| Data Retrieved | None |
Research query encountered an internal server error. The research attempt resulted in an "Internal Server Error," which indicated a failure to process the query and retrieve relevant information,. This technical issue prevented any data collection or analysis related to the original research question.
No findings or data could be extracted. Consequently, no specific findings, data points, or detailed summaries could be generated or presented. The research query was unsuccessful due to this server-side error, yielding no content from which to extract information.
8. Why Did the Research Encounter an Internal Server Error?
| Research Status | Failed |
|---|---|
| Error Message | Internal Server Error |
| Data Availability | Unavailable |
Research query could not be fully processed due to technical issues. The investigation into the CME FedWatch Tool's implied probabilities for the December 2025 FOMC meeting, concerning a target federal funds rate below 4.00% and its implications for macro liquidity, was interrupted. An internal server error occurred during the research process, which prevented the system from accessing or processing any relevant information required for the analysis.
Consequently, no specific data or analysis is currently available. This system issue meant that the intended research could not be completed. As a direct result, no specific data points, summaries, analytical insights, or factual content could be extracted or provided in response to the initial question.
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis not available.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: February 22, 2026
- Expiration: March 01, 2026
- Closes: February 22, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis not available.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 11 resolved YES, 39 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTCD-26FEB2212-T77249.99: NO (Feb 22, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB2212-T76999.99: NO (Feb 22, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB2212-T76749.99: NO (Feb 22, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB2212-T76499.99: NO (Feb 22, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB2212-T76249.99: NO (Feb 22, 2026)
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