Bitcoin price on Feb 22, 2026 at 11am EST?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that the Bitcoin price will be $58,750 or above on Feb 22, 2026 at 11am EST, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Here are key claims from the research analysis:
- Sovereign Wealth Funds held no direct Bitcoin ETF allocations by Q4 2025.
- National pension funds also lacked direct Bitcoin ETF holdings by Q4 2025.
- Bitcoin's current bull cycle peak is projected for late 2025.
- Significant Bitcoin price drawdown expected to commence by Q1 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| $67,500 or above | 90.0% | 27.5% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| $67,250 or above | 99.0% | 71.5% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| $67,750 or above | 39.0% | 5.5% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| $67,000 or above | 1.0% | 94.5% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
| $68,000 or above | 5.0% | 0.5% | Research error: Internal Server Error |
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Based on the provided data, this market shows no historical price action. The chart consists of a single data point, with the price opening and remaining static at $0.99. This indicates there have been no significant movements, trends, spikes, or drops to analyze since trading began. Consequently, with no price changes and no external context provided, it is impossible to attribute any market activity to specific news or developments. The price has not deviated from its initial listing, so no technical support or resistance levels have been established.
Despite the lack of price movement, the market has seen significant activity, with a total volume of 121,736 contracts traded. This high volume at a static price of $0.99 suggests a strong and stable consensus among market participants. Rather than indicating a battle between buyers and sellers, the volume reinforces the market's initial and unwavering conviction in the outcome.
The current price of $0.99 translates to an extremely high perceived probability of 99% that the "YES" outcome will occur. Based on the market's ticker, this suggests traders are overwhelmingly confident that the price of Bitcoin will be above the strike price of $58,749.99 on February 22, 2026. The market sentiment is therefore exceptionally bullish, with virtually no participants willing to take the opposing side at a lower price.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided page content, the specific conditions for YES and NO resolution are not explicitly stated. The market pertains to the "Bitcoin price today at 11am EST," but the title also includes "2026," creating ambiguity regarding the precise date of settlement. No special settlement conditions are mentioned in this text.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| $58,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $66,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $66,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $66,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $66,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $67,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $67,250 or above | $0.99 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $67,500 or above | $0.90 | $0.11 | 90% |
| $67,750 or above | $0.39 | $0.62 | 39% |
| $68,000 or above | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| $68,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $68,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $68,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $77,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $77,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
Limited public discussion available for this market.
4. Are research findings unavailable due to a gateway error?
| Research Status | Failed to retrieve data [Error] |
|---|---|
| Source Response | 502 Bad Gateway [Error] |
| Data Points Extracted | 0 [Error] |
Research findings could not be extracted due to a technical error. Research findings regarding the implied probability for the Federal Funds Rate target range at the March 2026 FOMC meeting, as priced by the CME FedWatch Tool on January 30, 2026, could not be extracted [Error]. The provided content was an HTML error page, specifically indicating a '502 Bad Gateway' status. This status points to an issue with the upstream service, which prevented access to the intended research data [Error].
No specific data points were generated from the input. Consequently, no specific data points or detailed summary paragraphs could be generated regarding the CME FedWatch Tool's pricing or a comparison to the median projection from the Federal Reserve's final Summary of Economic Projections of 2025. To proceed with the analysis, it is essential to ensure the research source is available and functioning correctly before attempting the data extraction process again.
5. Research Failed: No Findings Could Be Extracted?
| Data Extraction Status | Failed (502 Bad Gateway) |
|---|---|
| Reason for Failure | Server returned an error page |
| Action Recommended | Re-run research query |
The research query encountered an unexpected server error. The process resulted in a 502 Bad Gateway response from the server, indicating a service unavailability issue. Consequently, no relevant findings or specific data points pertinent to the original question regarding SEC and CFTC guidance on Bitcoin's regulatory perimeter could be extracted or processed.
Temporary server unavailability prevented data extraction for the query. The server indicated that the service was currently unavailable, meaning no detailed information could be retrieved. It is recommended that the research query be attempted again at a later time, as the problem appears to be a temporary server-side issue.
6. How Do Sovereign Wealth Funds and Corporate Treasuries Compare in Bitcoin Adoption?
| Sovereign Fund Bitcoin Holdings | $0 (as of Q4 2025) |
|---|---|
| Corporate Treasury Bitcoin Holdings | Approximately $90.2 billion, over 1 million BTC |
| Total US Spot Bitcoin ETF AUM | $120.68 billion as of December 4, 2025, holding 1.49 million BTC |
By the end of Q4 2025, Sovereign Wealth Funds held no direct Bitcoin ETF allocations. Publicly reporting Sovereign Wealth Funds and national pension funds disclosed an aggregate AUM of $0 directly allocated to spot Bitcoin ETFs, as there were no public disclosures or regulatory filings indicating such investments. In stark contrast, publicly-traded corporate treasuries held approximately $90.2 billion in Bitcoin, representing over 1 million BTC. This disparity occurred amidst significant Bitcoin price volatility, with Bitcoin’s price declining from a peak of $126,000 in October to around $88,000 by year-end.
Institutional investors avoided Bitcoin ETFs due to volatility and regulatory concerns. The absence of Sovereign Wealth Funds and national pension funds from spot Bitcoin ETF ledgers is primarily attributed to their extreme volatility, regulatory uncertainty, reputational risk, and a lack of sufficient historical data to fit their stringent risk models. Despite the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market reaching $120.68 billion in AUM by early December 2025, holding 1.49 million BTC, these institutions remained on the sidelines. Conversely, corporate treasuries, particularly early adopters like MicroStrategy, continued aggressive accumulation. MicroStrategy reported a $12.6 billion net loss for the quarter due to paper losses, which underscored their high-conviction, long-term investment approach.
7. Why Did the Research Encounter an Internal Server Error?
| Research Status | Failed (Internal Server Error) |
|---|---|
| Data Retrieval | Unsuccessful |
| Information Availability | None |
Research process encountered an internal server error. The research process, intended to analyze the trend of Bitcoin's 'security budget' (comprising the total USD value of transaction fees plus block subsidy as a 90-day moving average) throughout 2025 and its maintenance of a historical floor of 3% relative to the network's hash rate expenditure, encountered an internal server error. This technical issue critically hindered the system from accessing or processing any relevant information, leading to a complete failure in retrieving necessary data for the analysis.
No specific findings or data are currently available. Consequently, no specific findings, data points, or detailed summaries could be generated concerning the research query. The system was unable to perform the essential operations required to extract or synthesize any content related to Bitcoin's security budget, transaction fees, block subsidy, or estimated total miner costs. Therefore, no information is presently available regarding the projected trend or relative stability of Bitcoin's security budget for 2025.
8. What is Bitcoin's Projected Cycle Peak and Drawdown by 2026?
| Projected Cycle Peak (Q4 2025) | $145,000 - $170,000 [^] |
|---|---|
| Projected Drawdown by Jan 31, 2026 | 35% to 50% [^] |
| Estimated Price (Jan 31, 2026) | $72,500 - $110,500 [^] |
Bitcoin's current bull cycle peak is projected in late 2025. Based on historical cycle analysis and prevailing macroeconomic conditions, the peak for the current Bitcoin bull cycle is anticipated to occur between $145,000 and $170,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025 (October-December). This timing aligns with observed patterns of lengthening cycles, approximately 540-600 days post-halving [^].
A significant correction is expected post-peak, reaching specific price levels. Following this projected peak, a substantial corrective bear phase is anticipated, with Bitcoin potentially experiencing a drawdown of 35% to 50% from its cycle high by January 31, 2026. Applying this projected drawdown, the estimated price for the Bitstamp BTC/USD pair by this date ranges from $72,500 to $110,500. This forecast is supported by a unique combination of factors, including the deflationary impact of the halving, unprecedented institutional adoption through spot ETFs, and an expected shift towards global monetary policy easing [^]. Additionally, the occurrence of a pre-halving All-Time High in March 2024 suggests a potential structural change in the cycle, which is accounted for in the analysis models [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Catalyst analysis not available.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: February 22, 2026
- Expiration: March 01, 2026
- Closes: February 22, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Catalyst analysis not available.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 11 resolved YES, 39 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTCD-26FEB2211-T77249.99: NO (Feb 22, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB2211-T76999.99: NO (Feb 22, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB2211-T76749.99: NO (Feb 22, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB2211-T76499.99: NO (Feb 22, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB2211-T76249.99: NO (Feb 22, 2026)
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