Bitcoin price on Feb 20, 2026 at 5pm EST?
1. Executive Verdict
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| $68,750 or above | 19.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| $69,750 or above | 7.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| $67,250 or above | 54.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| $69,250 or above | 13.0% | — | Insufficient data |
| $67,750 or above | 39.0% | — | Insufficient data |
2. Market Data
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| $54,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $54,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $55,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $55,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $56,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $56,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $57,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $57,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $58,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $58,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 100% |
| $59,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,250 or above | $0.99 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $60,250 or above | $0.99 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $60,750 or above | $0.99 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $61,250 or above | $0.99 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $61,750 or above | $0.99 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $62,250 or above | $0.99 | $0.03 | 99% |
| $62,750 or above | $0.98 | $0.03 | 98% |
| $63,250 or above | $0.98 | $0.04 | 98% |
| $63,750 or above | $0.96 | $0.05 | 96% |
| $64,250 or above | $0.94 | $0.07 | 94% |
| $64,750 or above | $0.92 | $0.09 | 92% |
| $65,250 or above | $0.89 | $0.12 | 89% |
| $65,750 or above | $0.84 | $0.17 | 84% |
| $66,250 or above | $0.79 | $0.23 | 79% |
| $66,750 or above | $0.67 | $0.34 | 67% |
| $67,250 or above | $0.54 | $0.49 | 54% |
| $67,750 or above | $0.39 | $0.63 | 39% |
| $68,250 or above | $0.27 | $0.74 | 27% |
| $68,750 or above | $0.19 | $0.83 | 19% |
| $69,250 or above | $0.13 | $0.89 | 13% |
| $69,750 or above | $0.07 | $0.95 | 7% |
| $70,250 or above | $0.04 | $0.98 | 4% |
| $70,750 or above | $0.03 | $0.98 | 3% |
| $71,250 or above | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| $71,750 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $72,250 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $72,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $77,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $77,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $78,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $78,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
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