Bitcoin price on Feb 19, 2026 at 6pm EST?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that the Bitcoin price on Feb 19, 2026 at 6pm EST will be $60,750 or above, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Institutional support for Bitcoin cooled significantly after its October 2025 peak.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced substantial $8.5 billion capital outflows since October.
- This marked a shift from initial institutional enthusiasm to profit-taking.
- Bitcoin's price was left vulnerable due to ongoing consolidation and selling pressure.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| $66,750 or above | 63.0% | 61.5% | Post-halving supply dynamics could push Bitcoin's valuation to this target. |
| $67,000 or above | 20.0% | 19.5% | Increased global liquidity could propel Bitcoin's price to this higher valuation. |
| $66,500 or above | 93.0% | 92.5% | Steady institutional investment helps maintain Bitcoin's valuation above this threshold. |
| $67,250 or above | 5.0% | 4.5% | Unforeseen positive market catalysts would be necessary to reach this price target. |
| $66,250 or above | 99.0% | 98.5% | Robust long-term adoption trends are expected to keep Bitcoin above this price. |
Current Context
Bitcoin saw significant volatility and bearish sentiment by February 19, 2026. The cryptocurrency market was in a volatile phase, characterized by significant price corrections and a prevailing "wait-and-see" investor sentiment, as Bitcoin struggled to regain momentum above the $70,000 mark [^]. On February 19, 2026, the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index closed at $67,088.41 at 4 p.m. ET (6 p.m. EST) [^], with other reports indicating trading around $66,941 earlier that day [^]. This placed Bitcoin approximately 47% below its all-time high of $126,198 reached in October 2025 [^]. Market sentiment was firmly in "extreme fear," registering between 8 and 10 points on the Fear & Greed Index [^]. Key support levels were identified at $66,800, $65,650, $63,000, and $60,000, with resistance levels around $68,000, $70,000, and $71,800. The 200-week moving average near $58,366 was also a critical long-term support level [^].
Multiple factors contributed to the market's downturn, including significant institutional outflows. Data revealed that outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs had begun to outweigh inflows, as traditional investors either took profits or rotated into more defensive assets [^]. This institutional activity was closely monitored [^]. Macroeconomic headwinds, such as the Federal Reserve's neutral but restrictive rate stance (around 3.75%) and sticky inflation (around 2.4%), contributed to a "higher for longer" narrative, diminishing the appeal of risk assets [^]. Analysts from VanEck described a sharp drawdown earlier in February 2026, where Bitcoin fell below $70,000 and tested $61,000, as an "orderly deleveraging" rather than a chaotic crash, noting that futures open interest dropped over 20% [^]. Additionally, the introduction of the new IRS Form 1099-DA for the 2026 tax season added compliance complexity, potentially prompting some US investors to liquidate positions to cover tax liabilities [^]. Market data also indicated a rotation of liquidity from altcoins back into Bitcoin, with altcoin trading volumes on Binance falling by nearly 50% compared to November levels, and Bitcoin's market dominance rising to between 58% and 60% [^]. CryptoQuant highlighted a historic capitulation event as of February 13, with Bitcoin recording $2.3 billion in seven-day realized losses, indicating short-term holders selling at steep losses [^]. Experts like Paul Howard of Wincent suggested Bitcoin might enter a consolidation phase awaiting new catalysts [^], while Razan Hilal of FOREX.com observed that extreme bearish sentiment could signal contrarian moves or a final drawdown before a primary bull trend resumes [^]. Standard Chartered Bank reportedly lowered its Bitcoin target price from $150,000 to $100,000, issuing a warning of a potential drop to $50,000 [^].
Upcoming economic data and regulatory decisions were expected to influence the market. A US Supreme Court decision on tariffs, anticipated around this period, was considered a potential market mover, possibly more impactful than Federal Reserve meeting minutes or upcoming inflation data [^]. The release of US CPI data was also identified as a critical window that could trigger increased market volatility [^]. The overall market was in a "wait-and-see" mode heading into March, with expectations pointing towards cautious consolidation rather than a return to all-time highs for the remainder of February [^]. Common concerns included whether the market was entering a new "crypto winter" or experiencing an "orderly deleveraging" [^]. Investors questioned if Bitcoin could reclaim the $100,000 mark by the end of February, which was considered unlikely [^]. Discussions also revolved around the impact of macroeconomic factors, institutional outflows, and regulatory tightening on Bitcoin's price, and whether current conditions presented a good opportunity to buy, although caution was widely advised [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This market's price chart displays a complete lack of volatility, indicating an overwhelming and stable consensus from its inception. The price has remained static at $0.99, representing a 99% probability for a "YES" outcome, throughout its entire trading history. This flat, sideways trend establishes an extremely firm support level at $0.99, with no resistance ever being tested. The chart itself does not show any significant price spikes or drops that would need to be explained by external events; rather, it reflects a market that priced in a near-certain outcome from the very beginning.
The market's unwavering conviction was ultimately validated by the resolution data. The context shows that Bitcoin's price on February 19, 2026, was officially $67,088.41 at the time of resolution, comfortably above the market's $60,749.99 threshold. The substantial trading volume of 284,498 contracts, despite the static price, underscores the depth of this conviction. High volume without price change suggests that demand for "YES" shares at $0.99 was consistently met, with very few participants willing to bet on a "NO" outcome. This pattern points to a market sentiment that was not just bullish on the outcome, but viewed it as a foregone conclusion.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if the Bitcoin price is above a specific strike price at 6:00 PM EST, and NO if it is at or below this price; the precise strike price is not detailed in the provided content. Settlement occurs at 6:00 PM EST on the date specified as 'today'. The exact settlement date is unclear due to conflicting information like '2026' in the title and '26feb1918' in the URL, and no special settlement conditions are noted.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| $58,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $66,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $66,250 or above | $0.99 | $0.02 | 99% |
| $66,500 or above | $0.93 | $0.08 | 93% |
| $66,750 or above | $0.63 | $0.40 | 63% |
| $67,000 or above | $0.20 | $0.81 | 20% |
| $67,250 or above | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| $67,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $67,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $68,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $68,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $68,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $68,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $77,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $77,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
On February 19, 2026, discussions surrounding Bitcoin's price were largely characterized by "extreme fear" among investors, with the cryptocurrency trading around $66,000-$67,000, roughly 50% below its October 2025 peak [^]. This bearish sentiment was attributed to global economic uncertainty, inflationary pressures, tightening monetary policies, and heightened regulatory scrutiny, with some experts questioning Bitcoin's role as a safe-haven asset amidst geopolitical instability [^]. Despite the immediate downturn, some analyses noted signs of consolidation and the potential for a short-term rebound if key support levels held, while longer-term outlooks from some experts still projected a significant increase towards $150,000 or even higher by late 2026, driven by future halving events and institutional interest [^].
4. What is the 30-day cumulative net flow for the top
Research data not available.
5. According to derivatives data from Coinglass, wher
Research data not available.
6. What is the net position change (longs vs. shorts)
Research data not available.
7. What is the 14-day moving average of the 'Miner to
Research data not available.
8. Is there a quantifiable increase in exchange inflo
Research data not available.
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Leading up to February 19, 2026, Bitcoin experienced significant bearish pressure, largely driven by a cooling in institutional support following its all-time high in October 2025 [^] . This downturn was particularly evident in the substantial capital outflows from US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which saw an estimated $8.5 billion exit since October, indicating a shift from initial institutional enthusiasm to a period of consolidation or profit-taking, thereby leaving Bitcoin's price vulnerable [^]. Further contributing to the negative sentiment were macroeconomic uncertainties, primarily stemming from hawkish signals in the Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes, which fueled concerns over the future trajectory of interest rates [^]. Concurrently, heightened geopolitical tensions, specifically between the U.S [^]. and Iran, added another layer of risk to global markets [^]. This environment, alongside a strengthening traditional gold market benefiting from safe-haven demand, collectively pressured cryptocurrency prices and led to a significant pullback in Bitcoin's value from its late 2025 highs [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: February 19, 2026
- Expiration: February 26, 2026
- Closes: February 19, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Leading up to February 19, 2026, Bitcoin experienced significant bearish pressure, largely driven by a cooling in institutional support following its all-time high in October 2025 [^] .
- Trigger: This downturn was particularly evident in the substantial capital outflows from US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which saw an estimated $8.5 billion exit since October, indicating a shift from initial institutional enthusiasm to a period of consolidation or profit-taking, thereby leaving Bitcoin's price vulnerable [^] .
- Trigger: Further contributing to the negative sentiment were macroeconomic uncertainties, primarily stemming from hawkish signals in the Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes, which fueled concerns over the future trajectory of interest rates [^] .
- Trigger: Concurrently, heightened geopolitical tensions, specifically between the U.S [^] .
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 9 resolved YES, 41 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTCD-26FEB1920-T77249.99: NO (Feb 20, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB1920-T76999.99: NO (Feb 20, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB1920-T76749.99: NO (Feb 20, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB1920-T76499.99: NO (Feb 20, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB1920-T76249.99: NO (Feb 20, 2026)
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