Bitcoin price on Feb 19, 2026 at 10pm EST?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that Bitcoin's price will be $66,750 or above on Feb 19, 2026, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Large Bitcoin wallets accumulated over 81,000 BTC in the 30 days.
- February 2026 Bitcoin options signaled bullish short-term positioning.
- Critical Bitcoin liquidation levels were present around the market price.
- Bitcoin faced 'Extreme Fear' amid complex mid-February macro conditions.
- Key U.S. economic data releases influenced Bitcoin price movements.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| $67,250 or above | 71.0% | 100.0% | The model's probability was revised downward from 70.5% due to strong, Grade B evidence of market weakness—including extreme fear and derivatives deleveraging—which overrides the bilateral counterargument that such conditions are a contrarian buy signal. |
| $67,500 or above | 1.0% | 0.0% | The posterior probability was increased due to a Grade B evidence rating on the recent price rebound which demonstrated the target level is attainable, a factor that outweighs the bilateral critic's counterargument that extreme market fear and negative technical momentum would prevent a near-term recovery. |
| $67,000 or above | 1.0% | 100.0% | The market's near-certainty is challenged by a Grade A confluence of macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical risks, justifying a significant negative logit-shift despite contrarian arguments based on extreme fear and orderly deleveraging. |
| $67,750 or above | 1.0% | 0.0% | The initial near-zero market probability was significantly updated by Grade A evidence, as current price consolidation at the strike price strongly contradicts the market's pricing of an imminent tail risk, which represents the strongest (though unlikely) justification for its bearish stance. |
| $66,750 or above | 1.0% | 100.0% | The Grade A evidence of persistent, structural inflows from US-listed ETFs provides a dominant rationale that overrides transient Grade C sentiment indicators like 'Extreme Fear', justifying a logit-shift that increases confidence in the market's initial high probability. |
Current Context
Bitcoin's price on February 19, 2026, reflected recent market pressure and cautious sentiment. Following a significant market pullback earlier in the month, where Bitcoin fell below $70,000 and even tested $61,000, analysts at VanEck characterized this as an "orderly deleveraging" with futures open interest dropping over 20% [^]. While a modest rebound occurred on February 13, pushing Bitcoin into the high-$68,000 range and the overall crypto market cap past $2.36 trillion, the Fear & Greed Index indicated "Extreme Fear" at 8, worsening to 7 by February 20 [^]. As of February 19, Bitcoin's price remained under pressure, trading within a downward trend, forming a Triangle pattern, and positioned below the Supertrend indicator and all moving averages [^]. Rising geopolitical risks, particularly the increasing odds of Donald Trump attacking Iran, were cited as a contributing factor to the market pullback [^]. Despite volatility, institutional players continued to bolster their Bitcoin holdings, and regulatory uncertainties remained a concern, with Vancouver's Mayor even proposing adding Bitcoin to the city's balance sheet [^].
Technical indicators and expert opinions presented a mixed, cautious outlook for Bitcoin. Investors closely monitored real-time prices, with Bitcoin trading around $67,132 on February 17 and $67,256 on February 20 [^]. Key support levels were identified at $65,000 and major support at $58,950, while resistance levels were noted around $70,000 and a near-term barrier at $72,390 [^]. Historical data showed an average daily price of $82,595 for 2026, with a minimum closing price of $62,702.10 on February 5 and a maximum of $96,929.33 on January 14 [^]. Expert forecasts varied; Eric Trump boldly predicted Bitcoin's trajectory to $1 million [^], and a Finder.com panel projected an average high of $695,882 by 2035 and $133,688 by year-end 2026 [^]. However, near-term sentiment was cautious, with many analysts assigning low odds (less than 10%) to Bitcoin reclaiming $100,000 before month-end, anticipating a trading range of $64,000-$75,000 [^]. Standard Chartered had cut its 2026 Bitcoin price projection to around $150,000, while Goldman Sachs' digital assets team saw potential for Bitcoin to approach $200,000 by 2026 [^]. Experts also highlighted macroeconomic conditions, such as a "higher for longer" interest rate narrative, as dampening the appeal of risk assets [^].
Upcoming events and persistent concerns shaped investor sentiment for Bitcoin during this period. Several significant crypto events were ongoing or approaching, including ETHDenver (February 17-21) and a Hong Kong Conference (February 18-20) [^]. Upcoming events like ZRO Unlocks and WLFI Airdrop (February 20), Bitcoin for Corporations (February 24-25), and MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Enterprise Application Summit (February 24) were also on the horizon [^]. A new IRS Form 1099-DA for the 2026 tax season also generated concern regarding potential liquidations by US investors [^]. Common investor questions and concerns included fears of a new "crypto winter" after Bitcoin's significant retracement from its October 2025 all-time high of approximately $126,198 [^]. Discussions also focused on Bitcoin's investment safety, market stabilization above $68,000, and the impact of Federal Reserve policy shifts, Bitcoin ETF performance, and potential regulatory delays [^]. Geopolitical instability, particularly the prospect of military action in Iran, generated broader market concerns [^]. There was also a notable debate regarding the discrepancy between experts predicting massive long-term gains and their immediate "hold" recommendations, often attributed to the inherent timing challenges and uncertainties within the volatile crypto market [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
Based on the market ticker, this contract will resolve to YES if Bitcoin's price is above $59,749.99 on February 19, 2026, at 10pm EST. The price chart for this market displays a complete lack of volatility, having opened at $1.00 and remaining there consistently. This flat, sideways trend indicates that traders have assigned a 100% probability to a YES outcome since the market's inception. There have been no significant price movements, spikes, or drops whatsoever; the market's probability assessment has been static and absolute.
The price action on the chart shows a stark disconnect from the provided market context. While the prediction market implies absolute certainty that Bitcoin will remain above the $59,749.99 threshold, the news describes a period of significant market pressure and "Extreme Fear." The context notes a major pullback, deleveraging, and technical indicators suggesting a downward trend. Despite Bitcoin's price testing levels as low as $61,000 and trading under pressure in the high $60,000s, this negative sentiment has had no discernible impact on the market's price. The chart's unwavering 100% probability does not reflect the bearish developments and growing panic described in the external reports.
The total volume of 263,024 contracts traded is significant, especially for a market with no price movement. This high volume suggests a strong consensus and a high degree of conviction from participants. The price has been pinned to the absolute resistance level of $1.00, which is also serving as its unwavering support. The sentiment derived purely from the chart is one of maximum bullish conviction regarding the specific contract terms. This stands in direct opposition to the "Extreme Fear" indicated by the broader market context, highlighting a major divergence between the opinion of traders in this specific market and the general sentiment described in the news.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market concerns the Bitcoin price on February 19, 2026, at 10 PM EST. A YES resolution would typically occur if the Bitcoin price meets a specific "above/below" condition at that time, with a NO resolution if it does not. However, the exact price threshold for this condition and any special settlement rules are not detailed in the provided content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| $58,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $62,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $63,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $65,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $66,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $66,250 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $66,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $66,750 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $67,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $67,250 or above | $0.71 | $0.30 | 71% |
| $67,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $67,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $68,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $68,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $68,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $68,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $69,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $70,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $71,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $72,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $73,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,750 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $77,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $77,250 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
On February 19, 2026, discussions surrounding Bitcoin's price were largely dominated by its recent drop below the $68,000 mark, reaching approximately $67,097, and the resulting "Extreme Fear" in the market, as indicated by a Fear & Greed Index plummeting to 9 [^]. This downturn was attributed to a combination of factors, including profit-taking, broader macroeconomic pressures like rising interest rates, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, and significant institutional outflows from US-listed Bitcoin ETFs [^]. Despite the bearish sentiment, there was a divergence in expert and community opinions [^]. While some analysts predicted a continued consolidation phase, with price targets often ranging between $66,000 and $68,000, others viewed the dip as a "golden opportunity" and a healthy "reset" for the market, maintaining long-term bullish outlooks with predictions of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by 2027 or even $150,000 by the end of 2026 [^]. Social media discussions reflected this mixed sentiment, with some users expressing fear and acknowledging institutional profit-taking, while others reiterated a long-term conviction in Bitcoin's value and its decentralized nature amidst ongoing regulatory developments [^].
4. Are Large Bitcoin Wallets Currently Accumulating or Distributing BTC?
| Total Net Accumulation | +81,250 BTC (Jan 20 - Feb 19, 2026 [^][^]) |
|---|---|
| Net Accumulation (Jan 20 - Feb 4) | +28,500 BTC (16 days [^][^]) |
| Net Accumulation (Feb 5 - Feb 19) | +52,750 BTC (14 days [^][^]) |
Whale wallets significantly accumulated over 81,000 BTC in 30 days. Over the 30-day period from January 20 to February 19, 2026, Bitcoin wallets holding over 1,000 BTC, commonly known as "whale wallets," demonstrated substantial net accumulation. This cohort aggregated an inflow of +81,250 BTC, suggesting a concerted effort by large entities to increase their holdings, possibly in anticipation of future price appreciation. This trend contrasts with the more varied signals observed from smaller wallet cohorts during the same timeframe.
Accumulation accelerated in February, coinciding with a market dip. The accumulation intensified significantly during the latter half of the analysis period, with +52,750 BTC accumulated from February 5-19, compared to +28,500 BTC from January 20-February 4. This acceleration in buying activity coincided with a market-wide price dip on February 12th, indicating that these large wallets aggressively "bought the dip." Such sustained net accumulation effectively removes a substantial amount of liquid supply from the open market, transferring it into wallets that historically exhibit a lower selling propensity, potentially leading to a "supply shock" if demand increases.
Data from Glassnode and CryptoQuant confirmed long-term holding accumulation. This analysis synthesized data from Glassnode's 'Top Holder Movement' [^] and CryptoQuant's 'Large Wallet Flows' API [^]. Glassnode's methodology provides an economic view, categorizing holders into Short-Term (STH) and Long-Term (LTH) based on a 155-day threshold [^], while CryptoQuant specializes in meticulous entity identification and explicit balance-based cohort segmentation [^]. The final net accumulation figure was derived by cross-validating CryptoQuant's data with Glassnode's metrics, confirming that the accumulation primarily fed into long-term holdings [^][^].
5. What Does Bitcoin's February 2026 Options Market Signal?
| Max Pain Price | $70,000 [^] |
|---|---|
| Open Interest Put/Call Ratio | 0.59 [^] |
| Total Notional Value (BTC-20FEB26) | Between $2.0 billion and $2.08 billion [^] |
Bitcoin options for February 20, 2026, show bullish short-term positioning. The Max Pain price for Bitcoin options expiring on February 20, 2026, is $70,000, indicating a bullish short-term market sentiment [^]. This Max Pain level, coupled with a low open interest Put/Call ratio of 0.59, suggests potential upward price movement [^]. Market makers' hedging activities could draw Bitcoin's spot price towards $70,000 near expiry, aiming to minimize aggregate payouts on a substantial notional value ranging from $2.0 billion to $2.08 billion [^]. The heavy weighting towards call options, as reflected by the Put/Call ratio, supports the expectation of the price "pinning" at this level, consistent with Max Pain theory [^].
Broader market sentiment for late February 2026 indicates growing caution. Despite near-term optimism for the specific February 20 expiry, a wider view of Bitcoin options for later in February 2026 reveals increasing market apprehension. Professional traders exhibit this caution, with put options trading at a 13% premium over equivalent call options, signaling strong demand for downside protection. Consolidated end-of-February expiries show a higher Put/Call Open Interest ratio of 0.72. Furthermore, there is a significant concentration of put open interest at lower strike prices, including $1.24 billion at $60,000 and approximately $490 million at $40,000 for February 27, 2026, suggesting some participants are preparing for potential market downturns. The prevalence of defensive strategies like bear diagonal spreads and short straddles also reflects traders' apprehension regarding sustained upward momentum.
6. What Bitcoin Liquidation Levels Could Trigger Market Cascades?
| Largest Downside Liquidation Pool | Over $675 million at $60,000-$62,000 [^] |
|---|---|
| 90-Day Downside Potential | ~$2.88 billion below $60,000 [^] |
| Largest Upside Liquidation Pool | ~$4.13 billion at $70,000-$72,000 over 90 days [^] |
Bitcoin faces critical liquidation zones above and below its current price. The market is currently situated between two significant clusters of leveraged capital, operating within a volatile $67,000-$69,000 range [^]. These zones, often referred to as "magnet zones," are poised to dictate the next major directional move through forced de-leveraging events. The primary downside risk for long positions is concentrated at and below $60,000-$62,000, while a substantial upside pool for short positions is located at $70,000-$72,000 [^].
A significant downside liquidity cluster lies below $62,000, representing substantial risk for long positions. The largest concentration of long position liquidations is situated at and below the $60,000-$62,000 price zone. A breach of this level could immediately trigger over $675 million in liquidations [^]. This contributes to a broader 90-day pool of approximately $2.88 billion in potential long liquidations below $60,000 [^]. Historical market tests of the $60,000 level have consistently shown risks exceeding $1.4 billion, underscoring its importance as a massive repository of leveraged capital that could accelerate a rapid price decline if breached [^].
An equally large short liquidation cluster exists above $70,000, presenting a potential for upward price movement. Conversely, a highly dense cluster of short position liquidations resides within the $70,000-$72,000 resistance zone. This area contains a massive $4.13 billion in potential short liquidations accumulated over a 90-day period [^]. Should the price move above the initial resistance at $69,000, where $905 million in shorts are positioned, it could accelerate into this higher zone [^]. Such a move would likely create a powerful short squeeze as forced buying by liquidated short positions propels the price further upward [^].
7. How Do DXY and Treasury Yields Impact Bitcoin Amid Fear?
| DXY Net Change (Feb 5-19) | +0.1% [^] |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin Price (Feb 19, 2026) | $66,978 [^] |
| BTC-DXY 90-day Correlation | +0.60 (mid-February 2026) [^] |
Bitcoin faced "Extreme Fear" amid a complex mid-February 2026 macro environment. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin, historically inversely correlated, demonstrated a significant shift; their 90-day rolling correlation reached a positive +0.60 around mid-February 2026, the highest since April 2025 [^]. This suggests Bitcoin is now behaving more like a leveraged U.S. risk-on asset, implying a strengthening dollar could potentially support Bitcoin, while dollar weakness might pressure it [^]. During the two weeks leading up to February 19, 2026, the DXY showed resilience, trading between 96.8 and 98.1 with a marginal net change of +0.1% from February 5 to February 19 [^].
Elevated Treasury yields contrasted with expectations for dovish Federal Reserve policy. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stood at an elevated 4.04% in mid-February 2026. Simultaneously, markets were actively pricing in two to three Federal Reserve rate cuts for 2026, a powerful dovish signal designed to stimulate economic activity, which would generally lead to lower yields and be supportive of risk assets. Bitcoin's price experienced significant volatility during this period, falling sharply before recovering towards $70,000, ultimately settling around $66,978 by February 19, 2026, marking a net decline of approximately -13% [^].
Ambiguous signals create a transitional phase for Bitcoin's future price movements. While the "Extreme Fear" sentiment is historically a contrarian buy signal, its implications here are unclear. Current price action alongside elevated DXY and yields suggest bearish trends for risk assets, yet the market's forward guidance on Federal Reserve easing points towards a potentially bullish future. This contradictory situation, particularly the anomalous positive DXY-Bitcoin correlation, indicates a transitional phase where traditional macroeconomic models may no longer fully apply, making Bitcoin's future price movements highly dependent on how these conflicting signals resolve.
8. How Did U.S. Macro Data Releases Influence Bitcoin Price in Feb 2026?
| Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 19, 2026) | 206K, below consensus ~225K (week ending Feb 14, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| U.S. Trade Balance (Feb 19, 2026) | Consensus -53B to -56B (December 2025) [^] |
| Durable Goods Orders (Feb 18, 2026) | December 2025 data release [^] |
The period of February 17-19, 2026, featured several key U.S. economic data releases. Major U.S. inflation indicators like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) were not scheduled for release during this window [^]. Instead, the macroeconomic calendar focused on reports concerning labor markets, international trade, and the housing and manufacturing sectors. Key data points released on February 18, 2026, included Housing Starts/Building Permits and Durable Goods Orders. The following day, February 19, 2026, saw the publication of the U.S. Trade Balance and Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims [^].
Bitcoin's price movements are sensitive to U.S. economic data, especially mixed signals. The cryptocurrency's reactions are complex, heavily influenced by the perceived impact on Federal Reserve monetary policy and broader market risk appetite [^]. Historically, conflicting data signals—where some indicators suggest economic strength while others imply weakness—have increased volatility and led to price declines for risk assets like Bitcoin, as investors navigate uncertainty [^]. Markets often interpret strong economic data negatively if it suggests a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance and prolonged higher interest rates. For instance, on February 19, 2026, the simultaneous release of better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims (206K versus a consensus of approximately 225K) alongside a widening U.S. Trade Balance created such a mixed signal [^]. This combination was largely interpreted as bearish for Bitcoin, causing its price to fall below $66,000 within hours of the release. The robust labor market data likely tempered expectations for imminent Fed easing, thereby exerting negative pressure on non-yielding risk assets [^].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Market Status: Outcome Settled
The prediction market concerning Bitcoin's price on February 19, 2026, at 10 PM EST, has already reached its settlement date and time. As of February 20, 2026, the outcome of this specific market has been determined by the Bitcoin price recorded at the stipulated time.
Given that the market has settled, there are no future events, economic indicators, or technological developments that could retroactively alter the determined outcome of this particular prediction. Therefore, no key catalysts exist for this already concluded market.
Any significant market-moving events occurring now or in the future will pertain to new, ongoing, or upcoming prediction markets, rather than this specific one which has reached its resolution.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: February 20, 2026
- Expiration: February 27, 2026
- Closes: February 20, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The prediction market concerning Bitcoin's price on February 19, 2026, at 10 PM EST, has already reached its settlement date and time.
- Trigger: As of February 20, 2026, the outcome of this specific market has been determined by the Bitcoin price recorded at the stipulated time.
- Trigger: Given that the market has settled, there are no future events, economic indicators, or technological developments that could retroactively alter the determined outcome of this particular prediction.
- Trigger: Therefore, no key catalysts exist for this already concluded market.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 9 resolved YES, 41 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTCD-26FEB2000-T77249.99: NO (Feb 20, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB2000-T76999.99: NO (Feb 20, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB2000-T76749.99: NO (Feb 20, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB2000-T76499.99: NO (Feb 20, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB2000-T76249.99: NO (Feb 20, 2026)
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