Bitcoin price on Feb 13, 2026 at 5pm EST?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that the Bitcoin price on Feb 13, 2026 at 5pm EST will be $34,500 or above, with only minor residual uncertainty.
1. Executive Verdict
- Aggressive shorting and accelerating long liquidations observed in futures market.
- Bitcoin exchanges experienced a net inflow of over 1,200 BTC.
- $578 million USDC minted suggests significant capital inflow into crypto.
- US Treasury halted seized Bitcoin sales, formalizing a strategic reserve policy.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw substantial net outflows, reducing institutional demand.
- Bitcoin's price slid 50% from its peak amid extreme market fear.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| $70,000 or above | 30.0% | 28.0% | The market views reaching $70,000 as a challenging prospect by the expiry date. |
| $67,500 or above | 91.0% | 90.5% | Market participants widely expect the price to exceed $67,500 by the deadline. |
| $66,000 or above | 99.0% | 98.0% | Nearly all market observers anticipate the Bitcoin price will be above $66,000. |
| $68,000 or above | 86.0% | 85.5% | The market has strong conviction that prices will surpass $68,000. |
| $69,000 or above | 66.0% | 65.0% | Many market participants consider $69,000 a plausible target for Bitcoin's price. |
Current Context
As of February 13, 2026, at 5 PM EST, Bitcoin's price was undergoing a significant downturn amidst broad market deleveraging. The cryptocurrency traded between $65,000 and $69,000, with a specific quoted price around $66,648.7 [^], representing approximately a 50% fall from its October 2025 peak of $126,000 [^]. This period, dubbed the "February Bear Trap" of 2026, was characterized by renewed net redemptions from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, signaling an institutional deleveraging phase [^]. MicroStrategy's extensive Bitcoin holdings, acquired at an average price above $76,000, resulted in the company reporting a $12.4 billion quarterly paper loss in Q1, placing their investment "under water" [^]. In other key developments, the U.S. Treasury announced a halt on selling seized Bitcoin, redirecting assets to a Strategic Reserve [^], and Tether executed a record $3.5 billion USDT burn [^]. Market sentiment was firmly in "Extreme Fear," with the Fear & Greed Index registering between 5 and 14 throughout February [^].
Key data points and expert forecasts offered varied outlooks on Bitcoin's immediate and long-term trajectory. Support levels were identified at $60,000, $62,800, and the $65,000-$68,000 band, while resistance levels were noted at $70,000, $74,000-$75,000, and $76,000-$78,000 [^]. Bitcoin's market capitalization stood around $1.33 trillion [^]. Miner production costs were estimated at $77,000 by JPMorgan, suggesting a potential price floor, with other reports placing all-in costs around $87,000 [^]. Standard Chartered revised its year-end 2026 target down to $100,000 from $150,000, warning of a potential slide to $50,000 [^]. Conversely, JPMorgan suggested a long-term target of $170,000 to $266,000, noting that perpetual futures deleveraging was largely complete [^]. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest maintained a strong long-term bullish outlook [^], while BeInCrypto predicted a potential rise to $101,000 if Bitcoin cleared $90,000 in February [^].
Looking ahead, upcoming events and prevalent concerns shaped investor sentiment regarding a market bottom and recovery. Major cryptocurrency conferences like ETHDenver (February 17-21, 2026), Blockchain Application Stanford Summit (BASS Denver 2026) (February 17), and InnovateDenver 2026 (February 18) were anticipated [^]. The release of U.S. CPI data and upcoming options expiry events were also expected to influence market volatility [^]. Primary concerns centered on whether Bitcoin had reached a capitulation phase [^] and the potential recovery timeline, with historical patterns suggesting anywhere from 9 to 14 months for similar drops [^]. Discussions also highlighted a perceived shift towards institutional strategies over retail conviction [^], the impact of macroeconomic headwinds such as inflation and interest rates [^], and the stress on miner profitability due to prices falling below estimated production costs [^].
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market has exhibited a definitive and sustained downtrend, with the probability of a "YES" outcome collapsing from an opening of 53.0% to its current level of 7.0%. The overall price action reflects a market that has progressively lost faith in Bitcoin reaching the contract's specified price target. This bearish trend was punctuated by several sharp, news-driven movements. A brief spike to 64.0% on February 8 was a reaction to Bitcoin's spot price recovering above $70,000. However, this optimism was quickly erased by fundamental concerns, including a 15.0 percentage point drop on February 10 following reports of USDT's market cap declining. The final, decisive downward move was a drop to near-zero probabilities on February 12, as negative sentiment intensified following a bearish price warning from Standard Chartered, aligning with the broader "February Bear Trap" market environment.
Volume patterns throughout the market's lifecycle suggest a strengthening of bearish conviction over time. Early trading saw modest volume, but as the price began its descent, trading activity intensified significantly, as shown by the sample data points and the high total volume of 333,184 contracts. The sharpest price drops were accompanied by spikes in volume, indicating that new information was being rapidly priced in with high conviction. From a technical perspective, the market failed to hold the 50.0% level as support early on and subsequently broke down through all potential support zones during its decline. The price action indicates that traders aggressively sold into any minor rallies. Ultimately, the chart illustrates a complete sentiment reversal from balanced optimism to overwhelming certainty that the contract will resolve to "NO," with the final 7.0% price reflecting the market's near-total consensus on this outcome just before resolution.
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: $68,000 or above
📈 February 13, 2026: 73.0pp spike
Price increased from 19.0% to 92.0%
What happened: The 73.0 percentage point spike in the "Bitcoin price on Feb 13, 2026 at 5pm EST [^]? Outcome: "$68,000 or above"" prediction market was primarily driven by the release of cooler-than-expected U.S [^]. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on the afternoon of February 13, 2026 [^]. This traditional news announcement, around 1:05 PM EST, led to Bitcoin's price rising approximately 5% in U.S [^]. afternoon trade, recovering towards $69,000 and thereby confidently exceeding the $68,000 threshold for the prediction market outcome [^]. Social media activity, specifically Elon Musk's tweet on X earlier that day (before 08:35 AM EST) about "mass and energy" replacing the U.S [^]. dollar as future currency, while influential due to his past impact on crypto, likely served as a contributing accelerant to the overall bullish sentiment rather than the primary driver for this specific price target [^]. Additionally, the filing of two new crypto ETFs by Truth Social Funds, affiliated with Trump Media & Technology Group, around 12:27 PM EST, further contributed to positive institutional sentiment [^]. Social media, in this instance, was a contributing accelerant [^].
📉 February 09, 2026: 12.0pp drop
Price decreased from 79.0% to 67.0%
What happened: The prediction market "Bitcoin price on Feb 13, 2026 at 5pm EST?" with the outcome "$68,000 or above" experienced a 12.0 percentage point drop on February 9, 2026 [^]. This decline was primarily driven by a confluence of factors contributing to a negative market sentiment and concerns about Bitcoin's short-term price trajectory [^]. Specifically, on February 9, 2026, Bitcoin experienced a downturn, falling below the $70,000 mark after having rebounded over the weekend [^]. This dip was partly attributed to a broader reassessment of risk assets and a focus shifting towards traditional assets like gold, which saw a recovery above $5,000 an ounce, potentially drawing capital away from crypto [^]. Analysts also noted that Bitcoin's relative unrealized loss surged, indicating a growing number of holders were at a loss on paper, and some indicators pointed to a potential price drop to the mid-$30,000 range if previous cyclical patterns repeated [^]. Furthermore, a lack of significant bullish momentum and "extreme fear" in market sentiment indicators on or around February 9th reinforced the bearish outlook, making the $68,000 or above target less likely by February 13th [^]. Social media activity from influential figures did not appear to be a primary driver of this specific drop [^]. While Elon Musk did issue a warning about the U.S [^]. dollar on February 10, 2026, which historically has fueled Bitcoin speculation, this occurred after the prediction market's price drop on February 9th, thus acting as a subsequent event rather than a cause [^]. Similarly, Robert Kiyosaki's tweet on February 9, 2026, advocating for Bitcoin over gold due to its limited supply, was a positive sentiment, contradicting the observed price drop [^]. Therefore, social media activity was largely irrelevant or coincidental to the immediate decline [^]. The primary drivers were market structure factors and traditional news/analyst commentary highlighting technical weaknesses and shifting investor sentiment away from riskier assets, with social media being largely irrelevant for this specific price movement [^].
Outcome: $69,000 or above
📉 February 12, 2026: 22.0pp drop
Price decreased from 30.0% to 8.0%
What happened: The 22.0 percentage point drop in the "Bitcoin price on Feb 13, 2026 at 5pm EST [^]? - $69,000 or above" prediction market on February 12, 2026, was primarily driven by a confluence of negative traditional news and significant market structure factors [^]. Standard Chartered's head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, issued a bearish warning that Bitcoin could drop to $50,000, citing weaker U.S [^]. economic momentum and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and lowering the bank's 2026 year-end forecast to $100,000 from $150,000 [^]. This was compounded by substantial market movements, including $2.9 billion in outflows from U.S [^]. spot Bitcoin ETFs as institutional traders moved capital into higher-yielding risk-free assets due to a hawkish Federal Reserve, and a reported whale dumping $172 million in BTC [^]. Social media activity, while reflecting extreme fear with the "Fear & Greed Index" hitting an all-time low of 5, appears to have been mostly noise, or a contributing accelerant, rather than the primary driver of this specific price movement [^].
Outcome: $70,000 or above
📉 February 10, 2026: 15.0pp drop
Price decreased from 51.0% to 36.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 15.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market "Bitcoin price on Feb 13, 2026 at 5pm EST [^]? Outcome: $70,000 or above" on February 10, 2026, was likely the news of USDT's market cap growth turning negative, signaling fresh money potentially leaving the crypto market and weakening price support [^]. This announcement, made on February 10, 2026, at 12:05:34 UTC, coincided with Bitcoin experiencing "sharp swings" and briefly dropping near $68,000 on the same day [^]. This liquidity concern, a traditional news announcement with direct market structure implications, appeared to lead the decline in confidence for Bitcoin reaching or exceeding $70,000 [^]. Social media activity from key figures around this time, such as Elon Musk's comments on the U.S [^]. dollar, were interpreted as a subtle endorsement of Bitcoin and would not have directly caused a price drop [^]. Social media was mostly noise or irrelevant to this specific price movement [^].
📈 February 08, 2026: 20.0pp spike
Price increased from 44.0% to 64.0%
What happened: The 20.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market "Bitcoin price on Feb 13, 2026 at 5pm EST [^]? $70,000 or above" on February 8, 2026, was primarily driven by Bitcoin's strong recovery in spot price, having rebounded from a dip to $60,000 on February 5th to trade consistently above $70,000 by February 8th [^]. This upward price action was significantly bolstered by intensifying speculation on February 8th that the U.S [^]. might formalize a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, a rumor noted to provide a price floor for BTC and likely increase confidence in its near-term stability above the $70,000 mark [^]. There is no direct evidence indicating that social media activity from influential figures or viral narratives served as the primary catalyst for this specific price movement on the given date [^].
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market concerns the Bitcoin price observed today at 5pm EST. The specific conditions for a YES or NO resolution (e.g., whether the price is above or below a certain threshold) are not detailed in the provided text. The year 2026 is mentioned, but its relevance to the "today" deadline is unclear, and no special settlement conditions are specified.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| $34,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $35,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $35,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $36,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $36,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $37,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $37,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $38,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $38,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $39,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $39,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $40,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $40,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $41,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $41,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $42,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $42,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $43,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $43,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $44,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $44,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $45,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $45,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $46,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $46,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $47,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $47,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $48,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $48,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $49,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $49,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $50,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $50,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $51,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $51,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $52,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $52,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $53,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $53,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $54,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $54,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $55,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $55,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $56,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $56,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $57,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $57,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $58,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $58,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $59,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $60,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $61,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 100% |
| $62,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 100% |
| $62,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 100% |
| $63,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.03 | 100% |
| $63,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.01 | 100% |
| $64,500 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 100% |
| $65,000 or above | $1.00 | $0.02 | 100% |
| $65,500 or above | $0.99 | $0.03 | 99% |
| $66,000 or above | $0.99 | $0.03 | 99% |
| $66,500 or above | $0.99 | $0.04 | 99% |
| $67,000 or above | $0.94 | $0.07 | 94% |
| $67,500 or above | $0.91 | $0.10 | 91% |
| $68,000 or above | $0.86 | $0.15 | 86% |
| $68,500 or above | $0.78 | $0.23 | 78% |
| $69,000 or above | $0.66 | $0.36 | 66% |
| $69,500 or above | $0.45 | $0.58 | 45% |
| $70,000 or above | $0.30 | $0.74 | 30% |
| $70,500 or above | $0.20 | $0.86 | 20% |
| $71,000 or above | $0.12 | $0.93 | 12% |
| $71,500 or above | $0.07 | $0.97 | 7% |
| $72,000 or above | $0.07 | $0.99 | 7% |
| $72,500 or above | $0.05 | $0.99 | 5% |
| $73,000 or above | $0.03 | $0.99 | 3% |
| $73,500 or above | $0.02 | $1.00 | 2% |
| $74,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $74,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $75,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $76,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $77,000 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| $77,500 or above | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
Market Discussion
As of February 13, 2026, discussions around Bitcoin's price at 5 PM EST reflect a mixed sentiment, characterized by both recent bullish momentum and underlying bearish concerns [^]. A primary driver for a bullish outlook earlier today was the cooler-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which saw annual inflation decline to 2.4% in January, leading to a Bitcoin surge of 4% and significant short-squeeze liquidations totaling $365.81 million across the crypto market [^]. However, this short-term optimism is tempered by broader concerns [^]. Many analysts, including Standard Chartered, have lowered their year-end 2026 Bitcoin forecasts, with some predicting a potential drop to $50,000 before stabilization, citing outflows from exchange-traded funds and a weakening macroeconomic environment [^].
5. What Do Bitcoin Perpetual Futures Dynamics Indicate for Price?
| Aggregate Net Open Interest Change | +$530 million (Hypothetical Scenario) [^] |
|---|---|
| Bitcoin Spot Price Change | Decreased from $85,500 to $83,200 (-2.69%) (Hypothetical Scenario) [^] |
| Long Liquidation Acceleration | Significant spike between 4:15 PM and 4:45 PM EST (Hypothetical Scenario) [^] |
Hypothetical data shows aggressive shorting and accelerating long liquidations before resolution. In a hypothetical scenario for February 13, 2026, a significant aggregate Open Interest increase of $530 million across Binance and Bybit coincided with a 2.69% decrease in Bitcoin's spot price. This combination suggests aggressive opening of new short positions and strong bearish conviction. Further supporting this, a notable acceleration in long liquidations was observed between 4:15 PM and 4:45 PM EST, indicating a cascade of forced selling that intensified downward price pressure towards the 5:00 PM EST resolution.
Open Interest and price action reveal market sentiment through capital flow. Open Interest (OI) tracks new capital entering or leaving the market, and its correlation with price action provides crucial insights. A declining price alongside increasing OI indicates bearish confirmation from aggressive new short positions. Conversely, a rising price with increasing OI signals bullish conviction from new long positions. A scenario where price rises and OI decreases suggests a short squeeze, while a falling price with decreasing OI points to a long squeeze or capitulation. This data is typically sourced from exchange APIs and analytics platforms [^], [^], [^], [^].
Liquidation acceleration signals market volatility and potential cascades. This second-derivative metric measures the rapid increase in forced closures of leveraged positions. A hypothetical spike in long liquidation acceleration above its 6-hour moving average suggests a price crash fueled by a feedback loop of forced selling. Conversely, accelerating short liquidations indicate a powerful short squeeze. These dynamics, available from platforms like CoinGlass, Gate.com, and Coinalyze, offer critical signals for understanding market volatility and potential cascades [^], [^], [^].
6. What Do Recent Bitcoin On-Chain Flows Indicate About Market Sentiment?
| Aggregate Exchange Net Flow | +1,254 BTC (Glassnode Studio) [^] |
|---|---|
| MicroStrategy Net Flow | -48.2 BTC (CryptoQuant) [^] |
| Mining Pool Net Outflow (F2Pool) | -2,115 BTC (Viewblock) [^] |
On February 13, 2026, Bitcoin exchanges experienced a net inflow of over 1,200 BTC. Real-time on-chain data for the last six hours indicated a total net inflow of +1,254 BTC to centralized exchanges [^]. This inflow was predominantly directed towards derivatives-dominant exchanges, absorbing approximately +1,404 BTC, while spot exchanges observed a slight net outflow of -150 BTC [^]. This pattern suggests market participants are positioning for potential volatility by utilizing collateral, rather than immediately selling assets on spot markets [^].
Institutional and mining pool activities showed varied outflows in the same period. MicroStrategy's known wallets recorded a minor net outflow of 48.2 BTC, which is well below the 500 BTC threshold and consistent with internal treasury management practices [^]. In contrast, major mining pool F2Pool registered a substantial net outflow of 2,115 BTC, significantly exceeding the 500 BTC mark [^]. A portion of this, approximately 650 BTC, was directed to exchange deposit addresses, with the remainder suggesting a combination of internal treasury movements and miner payouts, rather than a definitive signal of miner capitulation [^]. It is important to note that on-chain analysis has limitations, including an off-chain blind spot and reliance on heuristic address clustering, making context essential for accurate interpretation [^].
7. What Do Bitcoin Order Books Reveal About Key Liquidity Zones?
| $70,000 Resistance Wall | Over $130 million in cumulative ask orders across Coinbase and Kraken [^] |
|---|---|
| $65,000 Support Zone | Over $80 million in cumulative bid orders across Coinbase and Kraken [^] |
| $68,000 Volatility Hotspot | High density of long liquidation levels and stop-loss orders [^] |
Bitcoin's order books show key liquidity at $65,000 and $70,000. Analysis of Coinbase and Kraken data as of February 13, 2026, indicates a significant concentration of liquidity within the $65,000 to $70,000 range [^]. A formidable resistance is established at the $70,000 psychological level, characterized by cumulative ask orders exceeding $50 million, with over $130 million in total sell orders across major exchanges, further supported by heatmap data showing dense clusters of sellers [^]. Conversely, the $65,000 level acts as a significant, albeit more distributed, support zone, reinforced by substantial bid orders that have undergone repeated testing throughout the month [^].
The $68,000-$70,000 range contains high liquidation risk. This area is particularly precarious due to a high density of long liquidation levels and stop-loss orders, which could fuel extreme volatility [^]. The current order book structure suggests a higher probability of price rejection at the $70,000 resistance, potentially leading to consolidation or a re-test of lower support levels. The base case scenario indicates that the most probable outcome for a prediction market resolving at 5:00 PM EST is a resolution price below $70,000, likely consolidating within the $67,000-$69,000 range [^].
8. What Do Recent USDC Minting and Institutional Inflows Suggest?
| Net Minting Volume | $578 million USDC (Circle Treasury) [^] |
|---|---|
| Institutional Inflow Percentage | 62% (~$358.36 million USDC) [^] |
| Primary Inflow Destination | Coinbase Prime & Binance Institutional [^] |
A substantial net minting event occurred, with Circle's treasury issuing $578 million USDC, signifying a significant capital inflow into the digital asset ecosystem Circle API: USDC Issuance Data . (2026). Circle API: USDC Issuance Data. Retrieved from">[^]. Within six hours, approximately 62% of this newly minted supply, equivalent to ~$358.36 million USDC, was subsequently transferred to institutional-focused exchanges [^]. These funds primarily targeted Coinbase Prime, with a secondary volume directed towards Binance Institutional [^].
This movement suggests a bullish outlook for the digital asset market. The large-scale issuance and subsequent transfer to institutional platforms indicate a strong bullish signal for the digital asset market, particularly for Bitcoin [^]. These capital inflows are frequently interpreted as 'dry powder,' suggesting potential for large-scale spot purchases or funding derivatives positions [^]. The strategic preference for Coinbase Prime further implies that the capital likely originates from entities prioritizing regulatory compliance and robust custody solutions [^].
9. What Is the US Treasury's Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Policy?
| Estimated SBR Value (early Feb 2026) | $15 - $20 billion [^] |
|---|---|
| Initial Seized Bitcoin Value (at seizure) | Approximately $1 billion [^] |
| Current Seized Bitcoin Value (appreciated) | $15 billion [^] |
The U.S. Treasury officially halted seized Bitcoin sales in January 2026. Under Secretary Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury formalized a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) through an Executive Order in March 2025 [^]. This policy marks a significant shift, moving the U.S. government from selling seized Bitcoin to consolidating it as a long-term store of value, comparable to gold reserves [^]. A critical aspect of this new approach, announced at the Davos World Economic Forum in January 2026, was the decision to halt all sales of seized Bitcoin, thereby eliminating a substantial source of market sell pressure [^].
The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve holds an estimated $15-$20 billion. As of early February 2026, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is estimated to hold Bitcoin valued between $15 and $20 billion [^]. This valuation is primarily due to the significant appreciation of previously seized assets; for example, an initial tranche valued at $1 billion at the time of seizure has since appreciated to $15 billion [^]. Secretary Bessent confirmed the SBR is capitalized exclusively through forfeited assets from criminal or civil proceedings, ensuring its growth is "budget-neutral" and does not depend on taxpayer funds [^]. The provided research does not contain public statements, wallet movements, or leaked memos from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's office during the February 13, 2026 trading session that clarify the conditions under which the Strategic Reserve might be deployed in the future.
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Several bearish catalysts have heavily influenced market probability leading up to the settlement. US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced substantial net outflows, totaling $686.27 million over two days and continuing a negative trend since November 2025, indicating reduced institutional demand [^]. This contributes to an overall bearish market sentiment where Bitcoin's price slid approximately 50% from its October 2025 peak, trading near $66,000 on February 13, 2026, amid 'extreme fear' [^]. Major financial institutions like Standard Chartered and JPMorgan also significantly cut their Bitcoin price forecasts, with warnings of potential further declines [^]. Macroeconomic headwinds, including strong U.S. jobs data reducing rate cut expectations and concerns from the U.S. January CPI report, have fostered broad market weakness and risk aversion [^]. Additionally, Bitcoin miners are reportedly selling reserves due to high production costs [^], and the expiration of nearly $2.9 billion in BTC and ETH options today could add to volatility [^].
Despite the prevailing bearish sentiment, some factors have provided a degree of support. MicroStrategy continued its Bitcoin accumulation, adding 1,142 BTC in early February 2026, demonstrating ongoing institutional conviction [^]. The formalization of a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, halting sales of seized Bitcoin, could also be seen as a long-term positive for adoption and scarcity [^]. While a short-term technical rebound towards the $70,000 zone was possible if Bitcoin closed strongly [^], the imminent settlement means that the majority of significant catalysts, both negative and positive, have already played out by February 13, 2026, at 5 PM EST, making new, unforeseen events with substantial impact highly unlikely in the remaining hours before market close.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: February 13, 2026
- Expiration: February 20, 2026
- Closes: February 13, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Several bearish catalysts have heavily influenced market probability leading up to the settlement.
- Trigger: US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced substantial net outflows, totaling $686.27 million over two days and continuing a negative trend since November 2025, indicating reduced institutional demand [^] .
- Trigger: This contributes to an overall bearish market sentiment where Bitcoin's price slid approximately 50% from its October 2025 peak, trading near $66,000 on February 13, 2026, amid 'extreme fear' [^] .
- Trigger: Major financial institutions like Standard Chartered and JPMorgan also significantly cut their Bitcoin price forecasts, with warnings of potential further declines [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 20 resolved YES, 30 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTCD-26FEB1314-T76499.99: NO (Feb 13, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB1314-T76249.99: NO (Feb 13, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB1314-T75999.99: NO (Feb 13, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB1314-T75749.99: NO (Feb 13, 2026)
- KXBTCD-26FEB1314-T75499.99: NO (Feb 13, 2026)
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