Yes refers to: $67,000 to 67,249.99
Short Answer
The model sees potential mispricing: Bitcoin's price at $66,999.99 or below is at 33.7% model vs 55.5% market, suggesting the market overestimates the probability of a significant price drop due to liquidation risks.
1. Executive Verdict
- Persistent and substantial Spot ETF outflows are a major bearish catalyst.
- Precarious leveraged long positions below $68,000 heighten liquidation risk.
- Signs of capitulation observed among recent Long-Term Holders.
- Hawkish macroeconomic environment contributes to a strongly bearish outlook.
- Compounding bearish catalysts point to a significant downside market shift.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| $67,000 to 67,249.99 | 15% | 7.2% | Higher prices are unlikely given persistent Spot ETF outflows and a hawkish macroeconomic environment. |
Current Context
Bitcoin's price sharply declined amid a significant market downturn on February 5, 2026, at 11 AM EST. The cryptocurrency dropped to its lowest levels since November 2024, testing $70,000 and briefly dipping below $67,000. This represented a 3.5% daily drop and nearly 9% over the past 24 hours to $69,031, marking the third consecutive session of declines. Approximately $500 billion was wiped from the overall crypto market capitalization within a week, with Bitcoin having fallen about 45% from its October peak of around $126,000. Traders and investors keenly watched Bitcoin's price, which hovered between approximately $67,000 and $71,340 on this day, observed between $69,049 and $69,546 at 7:30 a.m. EST. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased by 4.57% to approximately $2.45 trillion, and the Fear & Greed Index registered "Extreme Fear" at a level of 11, reflecting a significant negative shift in retail sentiment. Bitcoin dominance was noted at around 68.58%.
Institutional demand and broader market sentiment fueled the decline. Key factors included U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recording net outflows of around $545 million, coupled with a general "risk-off" sentiment in global markets, including sharp declines in Asian equities and concerns about the AI investment boom. Heavy liquidation of leveraged positions further accelerated the price drop. Analysts monitored critical support levels such as $69,000, $68,000 (near the 200-week Exponential Moving Average), and potential downside zones around $66,500–$67,000. Expert opinions, such as Joel Kruger's description of the price action as "undeniably heavy," pointed to a "confirmed downside breakout" with potential targets extending to $68,000 or even $52,000 in ultra-bearish scenarios, with one expert stating, "The 'Bitcoin Boomer Adoption' Trade is Dead". However, analysts at K33 suggested an 80% crash was unlikely due to a materially different market structure. Bitcoin was increasingly viewed as a macro asset, explaining its correlation with broader market downturns. The consensus leaned cautious, with no clear bottom expected until leverage is purged and sentiment stabilizes. Prediction markets indicated a 62% probability of Bitcoin hitting $70,000 before reclaiming $90,000. Common questions revolved around whether this constituted a new "crypto winter" and when a recovery might occur. Upcoming events like the Digital Assets Forum (DAF3) in London and NFT Paris on February 5-6, 2026, along with expected interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and European Central Bank, and ongoing U.S. legislative discussions on crypto market structure, also added to the market context.
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This prediction market chart displays a complete lack of price movement. The market opened and is currently priced at $0.09, representing a 9.0% perceived probability of a YES resolution. With only a single recorded data point, there have been no price fluctuations, spikes, or drops to analyze. Consequently, the trend is flat, and no support or resistance levels have been formed. The market's price has remained fixed at this single point throughout its trading history, indicating a stable consensus from the moment trading began.
Despite the static price, the market has seen a significant volume of 58,621 contracts traded. This suggests that while the perceived probability did not change, there was considerable trading activity solidifying this single price point. The persistent low probability of 9.0% reflects a strong and unwavering market sentiment that the event would not occur. The provided context fully explains this conviction: Bitcoin's price crashed to approximately $69,000 at the resolution time. As the market's ticker implies a resolution threshold of $85,249.99, traders correctly priced in a very low chance of a YES outcome from the outset, a view that held firm with high volume.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided content:
A YES resolution is triggered if the Bitcoin price falls within a specific range (not detailed in the provided text) at 11 AM EST today. Conversely, a NO resolution occurs if the Bitcoin price is outside this range at the specified time. The key observation time for resolution is 11 AM EST today. No special settlement conditions are mentioned in the provided market title.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| $67,000 to 67,249.99 | $0.15 | $0.89 | 15% |
Market Discussion
As of February 5, 2026, discussions surrounding Bitcoin's price are characterized by a mix of immediate market volatility and long-term bullish projections . Bitcoin is currently trading around $71,144.50 to $73,000, experiencing a significant decline of approximately 40% from its October peak, attributed to a broader "risk-off" sentiment in global markets rather than crypto-specific issues . While some immediate forecasts for February 5, 2026, show price predictions around $69,347.79, and prediction markets indicate thresholds like $66,750, $67,000, or $67,250, expert opinions for the full year 2026 largely anticipate a rebound, with many predicting Bitcoin to reach between $150,000 and $180,000, and some even up to $250,000, driven by institutional adoption and post-halving effects . However, some cautionary outlooks suggest a potential trading range of $60,000 to $75,000 if macroeconomic conditions tighten or regulatory headwinds intensify, with Reddit discussions reflecting mixed sentiment and debate over whether institutional involvement is altering Bitcoin's historical four-year cycles into a "supercycle" .
4. How Are U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows Impacting Price Prediction?
| GBTC Weekly Outflows | $119 million (week preceding Feb 3, 2026) |
|---|---|
| IBIT Weekly Outflows | $947 million (week before Feb 3, 2026) |
| Cumulative ETF Outflows | $6.18 billion (Nov 2025 - Jan 2026) |
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market faces significant contraction. Total net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reached approximately $6.18 billion between November 2025 and January 2026. This prolonged capital flight has led to a substantial 40.5% decline in total Assets Under Management (AUM), falling from $168 billion in October 2025 to below $100 billion by February 4, 2026, indicating severe market weakness. For the 7 trading days prior to February 5, 2026, the cumulative net outflow for IBIT, FBTC, and GBTC combined was approximately $913.7 million.
Individual fund data reveals mixed but predominantly negative performance. BlackRock's IBIT experienced $947 million in net outflows in the week before February 3, 2026, while Grayscale's GBTC saw $119 million in outflows during the same period, consistent with its structural bleed due to its high expense ratio. In a noteworthy divergence, Fidelity's FBTC registered $152.3 million in positive net inflows on February 2, 2026. While overall outflows persist, the rate of outflows has decelerated by approximately 25.4% week-over-week, suggesting a slowdown in selling pressure, though not yet a complete reversal to overall positive flows.
Sustained outflows continue to exert bearish pressure on Bitcoin's price. The direct link between ETF flows and Bitcoin's spot price implies that continued outflows create selling pressure, while inflows would generate buying demand. For February 5, 2026, the analysis suggests a high probability of bearish continuation or, at best, a neutralization and range-bound consolidation. While the FBTC inflow offers a potential signal of rotation or "buy the dip" sentiment, it is currently insufficient to confirm a broader bullish reversal. Therefore, the base case remains skewed towards lower or median price ranges, even as the situation remains dynamic.
5. Is Bitcoin's Perpetual Futures Market Vulnerable to Further Liquidations?
| Aggregate Liquidations | Over $235 million by February 4, 2026 (Coinglass ) |
|---|---|
| 7-Day Average Funding Rate | 0.0021% positive as of February 5, 2026 (Bybit ) |
| Bybit Long/Short Ratio | 50.97% long vs. 49.03% short (Bybit ) |
As of February 4, 2026, the Bitcoin perpetual futures market shows a persistent bullish bias despite recent deleveraging. The market experienced massive liquidations exceeding $235 million following Bitcoin's price falling below $72,000, triggering a significant 'leverage reset'. Despite this clearing of frothiest leverage, the 7-day average funding rate remains positive at 0.0021%, indicating that remaining long positions are willing to pay a premium to shorts, thus suggesting the market has not fully shifted to a bearish consensus.
Analysis of current positioning indicates low risk for an immediate short squeeze, but continued vulnerability to downside. Bybit's long/short ratio, showing 50.97% long positions, confirms a slight long bias in the market. Conditions for a short squeeze, such as over-leveraged shorts or deeply negative funding rates, are absent. However, the market remains susceptible to further downward price movements, as remaining leveraged long positions could trigger another cascade of liquidations if Bitcoin's price breaks recent lows. This reflexivity, where forced selling exacerbates price drops, continues to be a primary systemic risk.
6. How Does Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Behavior Signal Current Market Stress?
| LTH SOPR Status | Briefly dipped below 1.0 in January 2026 |
|---|---|
| 30-Day LTH SOPR Average | 1.18 as of January 13, 2026 |
| LTH/STH SOPR Ratio | Approximately 1.13 as of February 4, 2026 |
Long-Term Holders faced localized capitulation as LTH-SOPR briefly dipped below 1.0. The Bitcoin market entered a 'stress phase' in January 2026, marked by the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) briefly falling below 1.0. This indicates that a segment of LTHs, primarily those who acquired Bitcoin in mid-to-late 2025, realized losses by selling below their cost basis, contributing to increased realized selling pressure within the market.
Broader capitulation among older Long-Term Holder cohorts has not occurred. Despite this localized dip, widespread capitulation has not been observed across the entire LTH cohort. The 30-day moving average of LTH-SOPR remained elevated at 1.18 as of mid-January. Furthermore, the LTH/STH SOPR Ratio, recorded at 1.13 on February 4, 2026, significantly exceeds the historical capitulation range of 0.6 to 0.8, suggesting resilience among older LTHs. The recent price decline to $83,600 in late January was predominantly a technical event driven by cascading liquidations in the futures market, rather than a broad-based spot sell-off from LTHs, indicating no fundamental loss of conviction.
The market currently balances fearful distribution against potential seller exhaustion. The market is presently in a delicate equilibrium, fluctuating around the 1.0 LTH-SOPR threshold, balancing continued distribution from fearful LTHs against potential seller exhaustion. While short-term holders (STHs) are showing signs of recovering profitability, a segment of LTHs continues to distribute coins, contributing to a fragmented market structure. On-chain data points to continued volatility within a defined range, with the market's outcome largely dependent on whether the remaining LTH cohort maintains its position against further price pressures.
7. How Do FOMC Expectations, Risk Sentiment, and Bitcoin Trajectory Intersect?
| March 2026 FOMC Hold Probability | 73.0% (Feb 5, 2026 ) |
|---|---|
| CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) | Eased below one-year average (Early Feb 2026 ) |
| U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) | Nearing two-week high (Feb 5, 2026 ) |
Market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy have shifted towards a more hawkish stance. The implied probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the March 2026 FOMC meeting nearly halved to approximately 25.5% by February 5, 2026, while the probability of a hold surged to 73.0%. This significant recalibration reflects recent commentary from Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Powell, emphasizing the US economy's unexpected resilience and persistent, sticky core inflation, effectively pushing back against aggressive rate cut expectations for 2026. This indicates that the market is now pricing in a 'higher-for-longer' scenario in the near term.
Key risk indicators present a nuanced picture despite the near-term hawkishness. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has eased below its one-year average, signaling low perceived tail risk in equity markets and a lack of fear. Concurrently, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has strengthened, nearing a two-week high, primarily driven by widening interest rate differentials as the Fed signals elevated rates, rather than pure risk-off sentiment. For Bitcoin, this macroeconomic backdrop creates immediate headwinds from rising real yields and a stronger dollar, increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. However, the benign equity volatility environment provides underlying support, and the nomination of Kevin Warsh, known for a more accommodative policy bias, to succeed Chair Powell introduces a long-term dovish narrative that may be providing a floor to prices.
8. What Are Bitcoin's Major Liquidation Risks for February 2026?
| Total Longs at Risk | ~$2.8 Billion (Hyblock Capital) |
|---|---|
| Total Shorts at Risk | ~$1.9 Billion (Hyblock Capital) |
| Primary Long Liquidation Cluster Below $68,000 | Approximately $1.6 Billion (Hyblock Capital) |
Bitcoin's derivatives market shows significant two-sided liquidity on February 5, 2026. Data reveals approximately $2.8 billion in high-leverage long liquidation levels concentrated below the $68,000 support zone. Conversely, a substantial $1.9 billion pool of short liquidations has accumulated above the $72,000 resistance area. The most potent and immediate risk within the market appears to be to the downside, where the density and leverage composition of the long liquidation pool below $68,000 could trigger a rapid, self-reinforcing cascade.
A critical cluster of highly leveraged long positions sits below $68,000. Specifically, the primary long liquidation cluster, valued at approximately $1.6 billion, is concentrated between $67,500 and $67,800. A notable 60% of this specific cluster, representing $960 million, comprises positions utilizing extreme leverage levels of 50x to 100x. These highly leveraged positions are exceptionally vulnerable to even minor price fluctuations, meaning a breach of the $68,000 support level could quickly initiate a rapid cascade, as forced selling overwhelms bids and pushes prices through subsequent liquidation zones.
Upside potential exists from short liquidations, though with less aggressive leverage. Above the $72,000 resistance level, a substantial $1.9 billion in short liquidations has built up, offering potential for an upward price movement. The primary short liquidation cluster is estimated at $900 million, concentrated between $72,200 and $72,500. However, the distribution of leverage on the short side is less aggressive compared to that on the long side. This suggests that a significant short squeeze would likely require more sustained buying pressure to fully materialize, and a reversal at the $72,000 resistance level remains a high probability.
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The prediction market "Bitcoin price range on Feb 5, 2026 at 11am EST?" has already settled as of 11:00 AM EST on February 5, 2026 (16:00 UTC).
Consequently, there are no future catalysts or events that could significantly change its outcome, as the market's resolution is final and conclusive.
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: February 05, 2026
- Expiration: February 12, 2026
- Closes: February 05, 2026
10. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The prediction market "Bitcoin price range on Feb 5, 2026 at 11am EST?" has already settled as of 11:00 AM EST on February 5, 2026 (16:00 UTC).
- Trigger: Consequently, there are no future catalysts or events that could significantly change its outcome, as the market's resolution is final and conclusive.
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 50 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 50 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXBTC-26FEB0511-T85249.99: NO (Feb 05, 2026)
- KXBTC-26FEB0511-T67000: NO (Feb 05, 2026)
- KXBTC-26FEB0511-B85125: NO (Feb 05, 2026)
- KXBTC-26FEB0511-B84875: NO (Feb 05, 2026)
- KXBTC-26FEB0511-B84625: NO (Feb 05, 2026)
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