Build Rubrik's Financial Model using Claude + Octagon

Steps to generate this model & report:

Prompts used:

1. Retrieve quarterly rev, ARR, gross profit, gross margins, net income from FY Q1 2024 to Q4 2025 for Rubrik (ticker: RBRK). Focus on their S-1, 10-Qs, and 10-K filings. Present the data in a structured format with quarters as columns. Use Octagon SEC Agent.

2. Add cash & cash equivalents  and short term investment for each quarter. Use 10-Qs, 10-K.

3. Add number of customers and net dollar retention by quarter. Use 10-Qs and 10-K.

4. Add a column for Q1 FY 2026 and FY2026 based on consensus estimates. Use deep research agent.

Executive Summary

We leveraged Octagon's SEC Agent to extract core financial metrics from Rubrik's official filings, including revenue, ARR, and cash positions. The Deep Research Agent filled gaps by gathering customer metrics and net dollar retention rates from earnings releases when not available in SEC documents. This combined approach created a comprehensive financial model spanning Rubrik's historical performance and future projections through FY26.

Rubrik, Inc. (NYSE: RBRK) has demonstrated robust financial performance since its IPO in April 2024, with strong revenue growth, expanding margins, and consistent customer acquisition. This report analyzes Rubrik's financial trajectory from FY2024 through projections for FY2026, highlighting key trends and growth drivers in their core business of data security and cyber resilience solutions.

Revenue Growth Analysis

Rubrik has maintained exceptional revenue growth throughout FY2024 and FY2025:

• FY2024: Revenue progressed from $135.7M in Q1 to $175.0M in Q4, representing quarterly sequential growth between 8-12%.
• FY2025: Revenue accelerated from $187.3M in Q1 to $258.1M in Q4, reflecting year-over-year growth rates between 35-48%.
• FY2026 (Projected): Expected to maintain strong momentum with 30% year-over-year growth, reaching approximately $1.15B in annual revenue.

This sustained revenue acceleration demonstrates Rubrik's expanding market presence and successful execution of their go-to-market strategy, particularly following their public offering.

Subscription ARR Trends

Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) serves as a leading indicator of Rubrik's business health and future revenue recognition. Key observations include:

• Consistent Growth: ARR has grown sequentially every quarter, from $587.5M in Q1 FY2024 to $1,092.6M in Q4 FY2025.
• Milestone Achievement: Crossed the $1 billion ARR threshold in Q3 FY2025, a significant benchmark for enterprise SaaS companies.
• FY2026 Outlook: Projected to reach approximately $1.36B by the end of FY2026, representing 24% year-over-year growth.

The consistent ARR expansion indicates strong customer adoption and successful land-and-expand strategy execution.

Margin & Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin Evolution

Rubrik has demonstrated a clear path toward gross margin improvement:

• FY2024: Maintained relatively stable gross margins in the 70-77% range.
• FY2025 Volatility: Experienced margin compression in Q1 (48.8%), likely due to one-time IPO-related costs, before recovering to 72.6% in Q2, 76.2% in Q3, and 77.3% in Q4.
• FY2026 Outlook: Expected to maintain non-GAAP gross margins around 79%, approaching best-in-class levels for software companies.

The gross margin recovery and stabilization throughout FY2025 demonstrates Rubrik's operational efficiency and scaling capabilities.

Path to Profitability

While still operating at a net loss, Rubrik is steadily improving its bottom line:

• FY2025 Losses: Significant loss in Q1 ($732.1M), improving to $130.9M in Q3.
• FY2026 Guidance: Projected non-GAAP loss of approximately $234M for the full year, with quarterly losses expected to narrow progressively.
• Positive Indicators: Increasing Subscription ARR contribution margin (projected at 4.5-5.5% for FY2026) and forecast of positive free cash flow ($45M-$65M) for FY2026.

Management has outlined a path to operational breakeven, with projections indicating positive EBIT by FY2028.

Customer Metrics

Customer Growth

Rubrik has consistently expanded its customer base while focusing on higher-value customers:

• Enterprise Focus: Customer count ($100K+ ARR) grew from 1,859 in Q1 FY2025 to 2,246 in Q4 FY2025.
• Decelerating Growth Rate: Year-over-year customer growth has moderated from 41% to 29% over the course of FY2025, which is expected as the customer base expands.
• Customer Quality: As of Q4 FY2025, customers with $100K+ ARR represented 84% of total Subscription ARR, up from 80% in FY2024, indicating successful targeting of enterprise clients.

Net Dollar Retention

Rubrik has maintained strong net dollar retention rates:

• Consistently >120%: Throughout FY2025, indicating robust expansion within the existing customer base.
• Expansion Drivers: Additional security features contribute approximately 35% of retention, with workload expansion accounting for the remainder.

This high retention rate underscores the company's ability to grow accounts over time and reflects strong product-market fit.

Balance Sheet Strength

Rubrik maintains a solid financial position:

• Cash & Investments: $705.1M as of Q4 FY2025, providing significant runway.
• Quarterly Fluctuations: Notable dip in Q3 FY2025 to $320.9M before recovering in Q4, possibly indicating strategic investments or M&A activity.
• IPO Impact: Successful April 2024 IPO bolstered the company's cash position, enabling investments in growth initiatives.

The company's strong cash position provides flexibility for strategic initiatives and cushioning against market uncertainties.

Competitive Positioning & Market Opportunity

Rubrik has positioned itself at the intersection of two high-growth markets: data security and cyber resilience. Key differentiators include:

1. Strategic Partnerships: Strong relationship with Microsoft enhancing go-to-market capabilities.
2. Innovation Pipeline: Introduction of Turbo Threat Hunting and other advanced offerings driving customer adoption.
3. Enterprise Traction: Increasing penetration within the Fortune 500 and Global 2000 accounts.

With a total addressable market estimated in the billions, Rubrik has significant runway for continued growth.

Outlook & Investment Considerations

FY2026 Guidance

Rubrik's management has provided optimistic guidance for FY2026:

• Revenue: $1.145B-$1.161B (30% YoY growth)
• Subscription ARR: $1.35B-$1.36B (24% YoY growth)
• Non-GAAP EPS: $(1.23)-$(1.13), above analyst consensus of $(1.25)
• Free Cash Flow: $45M-$65M

This guidance exceeds analyst expectations, indicating management confidence in the business trajectory.

Risk Factors

Notable risks include:

1. Competitive Landscape: Increasing competition in the cyber resilience space
2. Macroeconomic Sensitivity: Potential impact of enterprise IT spending fluctuations
3. Profitability Timeline: Extended path to GAAP profitability

Investment Thesis

Rubrik presents a compelling investment opportunity based on:

1. Market Leadership: Strong position in the rapidly growing cyber resilience market
2. Financial Trajectory: Consistent growth with improving operational metrics
3. Enterprise Traction: Proven ability to acquire and expand high-value customers
4. Innovation Pipeline: Continuous product development addressing evolving security needs

Conclusion

Rubrik has demonstrated impressive financial execution since its public debut, with strong revenue growth, expanding ARR, and improving margins. As the company progresses through FY2026, investors should monitor customer acquisition rates, margin expansion, and progress toward profitability as key indicators of long-term success.

The company appears well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for data security and cyber resilience solutions, with a robust foundation for sustained growth in the coming years.