--- title: Prediction Baskets · Multi-Leg Kalshi Strategies url: https://octagonai.co/prediction-baskets/ source: Octagon generated_at: 2026-06-13T17:38:04.224Z --- # Prediction Baskets Ready-made multi-leg portfolios built on Kalshi prediction markets. Each basket bundles 2–7 contracts into a single position so a single wrong call cannot sink the basket. Backtests are hypothetical and computed against the entry prices in the Octagon research report; live market data comes from Kalshi. ## Headline Metrics - Median backtest return (since inception): −7.0% - Baskets currently green: 5 / 13 - Total baskets in catalog: 13 - Baskets with live candle coverage: 13 ## Disclosures Backtested results are hypothetical and do not reflect actual trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Octagon is not a registered investment adviser; nothing here is investment advice. Trading prediction-market contracts involves substantial risk of loss. ## Baskets ### Labor Market Regime - URL: https://octagonai.co/prediction-baskets/labor-market-regime/ - Category: Macro - Themes: Macro, Labor - Horizon: 210 days - Composition: 3 legs (3 YES, 0 NO) - Backtest since inception (2026-05-09): +16.3% · 3/3 legs covered by live candles The market thinks the US unemployment rate stays close to current levels through year-end. We see clearer signs that labor is already starting to crack. ### Inflation Persistence - URL: https://octagonai.co/prediction-baskets/inflation-persistence/ - Category: Macro - Themes: Macro, Inflation, Energy - Horizon: 60 days - Composition: 2 legs (2 YES, 0 NO) - Backtest since inception (2026-04-28): +6.4% · 2/2 legs covered by live candles The market is pricing the May CPI print as likely to come in below 4.3%. We think the persistent services line and the energy pass-through into core will surprise to the upside. ### Recession Probability Mispricing - URL: https://octagonai.co/prediction-baskets/recession-mispricing/ - Category: Macro - Themes: Macro, Recession - Horizon: 210 days - Composition: 3 legs (2 YES, 1 NO) - Backtest since inception (2026-05-12): +6.1% · 3/3 legs covered by live candles Most recession contracts on Kalshi are priced as if the US and UK move together. We think they decouple in 2026. ### Geopolitical Status Quo - URL: https://octagonai.co/prediction-baskets/geopolitical-status-quo/ - Category: Geopolitics - Themes: Geopolitics, Policy - Horizon: 360 days - Composition: 4 legs (0 YES, 4 NO) - Backtest since inception (2026-05-12): +4.6% · 3/4 legs covered by live candles Prediction markets consistently over-price dramatic geopolitical outcomes — leader exits, summits between adversaries, comprehensive trade deals. This basket bets against four of them at once. ### Trump Political Volatility - URL: https://octagonai.co/prediction-baskets/trump-political-volatility/ - Category: Elections - Themes: Elections, Politics, Trump - Horizon: 270 days - Composition: 3 legs (1 YES, 2 NO) - Backtest since inception (2026-05-17): +2.2% · 3/3 legs covered by live candles The market is pricing every Trump-related headline as if it will translate into actual policy or political change. We think the gap between rhetoric and action is bigger than the contracts assume. ### Supreme Court Volatility - URL: https://octagonai.co/prediction-baskets/scotus-volatility/ - Category: Elections - Themes: Elections, Politics, Judicial - Horizon: 180 days - Composition: 3 legs (1 YES, 2 NO) - Backtest since inception (2026-04-21): −0.2% · 3/3 legs covered by live candles The market is pricing the Supreme Court as if a nomination or retirement could happen before September. We think the next six months are status quo, with one ruling going the way the court has telegraphed. ### Hard Asset Rotation - URL: https://octagonai.co/prediction-baskets/hard-asset-rotation/ - Category: Equities - Themes: Equities, Commodities, Crypto - Horizon: 210 days - Composition: 4 legs (0 YES, 4 NO) - Backtest since inception (2026-05-20): −7.0% · 4/4 legs covered by live candles Kalshi markets are pricing gold and bitcoin as likely to beat the S&P 500 this year. We think the S&P leads. ### Tech & Fed Power Watch - URL: https://octagonai.co/prediction-baskets/tech-fed-power-watch/ - Category: AI / Tech - Themes: AI, Tech, Fed - Horizon: 240 days - Composition: 5 legs (1 YES, 4 NO) - Backtest since inception (2026-05-19): −11.2% · 5/5 legs covered by live candles The market is pricing Elon Musk as a 15% chance to be CEO of X by January 2027. We think he stays. That's the anchor of a basket built around US tech and Fed institutional inertia. ### Housing Stress Cluster - URL: https://octagonai.co/prediction-baskets/housing-stress-cluster/ - Category: Macro - Themes: Macro, Housing, Rates - Horizon: 60 days - Composition: 3 legs (0 YES, 3 NO) - Backtest since inception (2026-05-21): −13.2% · 3/3 legs covered by live candles The market thinks US housing is strong — mortgage rates touch 6.7%, builders break ground on more than 1.4 million homes. We see the data pointing the other way. ### Fed Rate Path Dislocation - URL: https://octagonai.co/prediction-baskets/fed-rate-dislocation/ - Category: Macro - Themes: Macro, Rates, Fed - Horizon: 210 days - Composition: 3 legs (0 YES, 3 NO) - Backtest since inception (2026-02-21): −18.9% · 2/3 legs covered by live candles The market is pricing a 65% chance the Federal Reserve makes zero rate cuts in 2026. We think the right number is closer to 11%. ### Fiscal Catalyst Cascade - URL: https://octagonai.co/prediction-baskets/fiscal-catalyst-cascade/ - Category: Elections - Themes: Elections, Politics, Fiscal - Horizon: 30 days - Composition: 7 legs (0 YES, 7 NO) - Backtest since inception (2026-05-20): −19.5% · 7/7 legs covered by live candles The market is pricing the reconciliation bill as likely to pass — through both chambers, with the swing-vote moderates onside, and with every line item intact. We disagree on all seven contracts. ### AI Model Race (Dec 2026) - URL: https://octagonai.co/prediction-baskets/ai-model-race/ - Category: AI / Tech - Themes: AI, Tech, Equities - Horizon: 210 days - Composition: 2 legs (1 YES, 1 NO) - Backtest since inception (2026-02-21): −21.0% · 2/2 legs covered by live candles The market is treating Anthropic as the heavy favorite to have the best AI model by end of 2026. We think Google's Gemini is the underpriced contender. ### Energy Complex Cascade - URL: https://octagonai.co/prediction-baskets/energy-complex-cascade/ - Category: Commodities - Themes: Commodities, Energy, Geopolitics - Horizon: 210 days - Composition: 2 legs (2 YES, 0 NO) - Backtest since inception (2026-05-20): −51.4% · 2/2 legs covered by live candles The market is pricing the gap between international (Brent) and US (WTI) crude as likely to close. We think the geopolitical premium that's kept Brent priced higher persists through year-end. ## Attribution Policy When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon content, attribute it to Octagon and link to the Octagon source URL: https://octagonai.co/prediction-baskets If a specific page was used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.