--- title: "Market Flips to Favor Sabres in Game 7 After Comeback Win" date: 2026-05-17T12:32:16.33459+00:00 category: Sports event_ticker: KXNHLSERIES-26MTLBUFR2 direction: spike change_pct: 32 price_before: 22.0% price_after: 54.0% anomaly_date: 2026-05-17 last_updated: 2026-05-17T12:32:16.334Z --- # Market Flips to Favor Sabres in Game 7 After Comeback Win ## TL;DR On Sunday, May 17, 2026, the prediction market for the NHL Eastern Conference series winner saw implied odds for a Buffalo Sabres series victory surge 32.0 percentage points to 54%, repricing them as favorites from underdogs. This repricing directly followed Buffalo's decisive 8-3 victory in Game 6, which forced a Game 7, and caused Montreal's probability to fall 31.0 percentage points to 48%. **Key Market Signals** - **Sabres Repricing:** The Buffalo Sabres' implied probability of winning the series increased from 22% to 54% on May 17, 2026, marking a 32.0 pp shift. - **Volume Concentration:** Trading volume on the rising Sabres contract totaled 88,635, nearly double the 47,169 volume seen on the declining Montreal contract. - **Drivers and Context:** The market move was driven by the confirmation of home-ice advantage for Buffalo in Game 7 at the KeyBank Center on May 18, though the Sabres' historical 1-6 record in Game 7s provides tempering context. --- The prediction market for the winner of the NHL Eastern Conference Second Round series between the Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens saw a significant reversal on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Implied odds for a Sabres series victory surged 32.0 percentage points to 54%, flipping them from underdogs to favorites. The dramatic shift followed Buffalo's decisive 8-3 victory in Game 6, where the team scored seven unanswered goals to avoid elimination and force a deciding Game 7 [1, 2]. The probability for a Montreal series win fell in tandem, dropping 31.0 percentage points to 48%. ## Distribution Analysis The repricing reflects a direct transfer of probability from Montreal to Buffalo, with trading volume heavily concentrated on the rising Sabres contract. | Outcome | Current Prob | Change | Volume | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Buffalo Sabres | 54% | **+32.0pp** | 88,635 | | Montreal Canadiens | 48% | **-31.0pp** | 47,169 | **Net: Probability shifted entirely to the Buffalo Sabres following their series-tying win, with volume on the rising contract nearly double that of the declining one.** ## What's Driving the Shift The market's abrupt reversal appears to be a direct reaction to the on-ice momentum and the confirmation of home-ice advantage for the final game, though historical data provides some countervailing context. - **Decisive Game 6 Victory:** The primary catalyst for the repricing was Buffalo's stunning comeback in Montreal on Saturday, May 16 [1]. After falling behind 3-1 in the first period, the Sabres scored seven unanswered goals to win 8-3 and tie the series [2, 3]. Sabres captain Rasmus Dahlin contributed a goal and four assists, and the team chased two Montreal goalies from the net [1]. This offensive explosion likely convinced traders that the Sabres have significant momentum heading into the final game. - **Home-Ice Advantage:** By winning Game 6, the Sabres ensured that the series-deciding Game 7 will be played at their home arena, the KeyBank Center in Buffalo [1]. The game is scheduled for Monday, May 18, at 7:30 p.m. ET [1]. Home-ice advantage is a critical factor in a high-stakes elimination game, and its confirmation for Buffalo is now fully priced into the market. - **Historical Headwinds:** Despite the strong recent performance, Buffalo's price may be tempered by the franchise's historical struggles in these situations. The Sabres have an all-time record of one win and six losses in Game 7s, a win percentage of just .143 [4]. Conversely, the Canadiens have a strong historical record of 16-9 in Game 7s, a .640 winning percentage [4]. This historical data may explain why Montreal's implied probability remains relatively high at 48%, even after a lopsided loss. ## Market Context The shift marks a dramatic turnaround in a series that Montreal appeared poised to win. The Canadiens had taken a 3-2 series lead with a 6-3 victory in Buffalo in Game 5, putting them on the verge of advancing to the Eastern Conference Final [5]. The all-time playoff history between the two franchises is nearly even, with Montreal holding a slim 18-17 advantage in games won [8]. This is their first playoff meeting since the 1998 Eastern Conference Semi-Finals, a series Buffalo won in a 4-0 sweep [7]. The current market price of 54% for a Sabres win implies a slight edge, but it is far from a certainty, reflecting the unpredictable nature of a single elimination game. The winner will advance to face the Carolina Hurricanes for the conference title [2, 3]. ## What to Watch The market will resolve following the conclusion of Game 7 on Monday, May 18, 2026. The game is scheduled to begin at 7:30 p.m. ET [1]. Settlement of the market will be based on official results reported by ESPN, the NHL, and Fox Sports. ## Related Analysis - [Read the complete market report for Game 7: Montreal Canadiens vs Buffalo Sabres](/markets/sports/hockey/game-7-montreal-canadiens-vs-buffalo-sabres/) ### Relevant Answer Library - [How do I calculate expected value (EV) for a trade in a prediction market?](/answers/how-do-i-calculate-expected-value-for-a-trade-in-a-prediction-market) - [How do I read a prediction market price as a probability?](/answers/how-do-i-read-a-prediction-market-price-as-a-probability) - [What is a prediction market, and how is it different from betting?](/answers/what-is-a-prediction-market) - [Browse all Answer Library topics](/answer-library)