--- title: "Masters Top 5 Market Realigns With Leaderboard After Round 2" date: 2026-04-11T12:20:17.780295+00:00 category: Sports event_ticker: KXPGATOP5-MAST26 direction: drop change_pct: -42 price_before: 65.0% price_after: 23.0% anomaly_date: 2026-04-10 last_updated: 2026-04-11T12:20:17.780Z --- # Masters Top 5 Market Realigns With Leaderboard After Round 2 ## TL;DR The prediction market for a Top 5 finish at the 2026 Masters repriced significantly on Friday, April 10, 2026, with probabilities shifting from pre-tournament favorites to top contenders after Round 2. The most notable moves included Scottie Scheffler's Top 5 probability declining by 42.0 percentage points, while Rory McIlroy's surged to 95%. This revaluation directly reflects on-course performance, particularly McIlroy's commanding six-shot lead and Scheffler's second-round struggle. **Key Market Signals** - **Key Repricing:** Scottie Scheffler's Top 5 probability fell from 61% to 19%, a decline of 42.0pp, following his second-round performance. - **Distribution Shift:** Probability reallocated across the field, with 22 of 48 contracts rising on a combined volume of over 292,000 as the market aligned with the live 36-hole leaderboard. - **Performance Drivers:** Rory McIlroy's seven-under-par 65 and six-shot lead at 12-under par served as a primary catalyst, alongside gains for challengers like Cameron Young (+28.0pp) and Tommy Fleetwood (+24.0pp). --- The prediction market for a Top 5 finish at the 2026 Masters underwent a significant repricing on Friday, April 10, 2026, as traders reacted to the conclusion of the tournament's second round. The market saw a sharp decline in the probability for pre-tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler, whose contract fell 42.0 percentage points, while probability surged for players at the top of the live leaderboard. Defending champion Rory McIlroy, who holds a commanding six-shot lead at 12-under par, saw his odds for a top-five finish jump to 95% [4, 5]. The shift illustrates a classic market move from pre-event speculation to in-play, performance-based pricing. ## Distribution Analysis The most dramatic movement was a reallocation of probability away from players who struggled in the second round toward those in contention. Scottie Scheffler’s contract, which was previously priced at 61%, fell to 19% after he posted a second-round 74 to sit at even par (T24) [4]. Conversely, probability flowed directly to the leaders. Contracts for Tommy Fleetwood (+24.0pp), Patrick Reed (+24.0pp), and Cameron Young (+28.0pp) all saw substantial gains as they positioned themselves inside the top 10 on the leaderboard [1, 4]. Trading volumes underscored the conviction behind the move, with over 292,000 contracts traded on rising players compared to 142,000 on those declining. | Outcome | Current Prob | Change | Volume | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Rory McIlroy | 95% | **+21.0pp** | 60,899 | | Tommy Fleetwood | 47% | **+24.0pp** | 56,698 | | Patrick Reed | 45% | **+24.0pp** | 32,515 | | Sam Burns | 43% | +11.0pp | 10,012 | | Cameron Young | 40% | **+28.0pp** | 15,566 | | Justin Rose | 40% | +5.0pp | 61,228 | | Shane Lowry | 31% | +13.0pp | 5,051 | | Xander Schauffele | 24% | **-20.0pp** | 23,225 | | Jason Day | 21% | -2.0pp | 8,818 | | Chris Gotterup | 20% | +1.0pp | 16,778 | | Tyrrell Hatton | 20% | +12.0pp | 6,616 | | Scottie Scheffler | 19% | **-42.0pp** | 67,639 | | Sam Stevens | 19% | +11.0pp | 203 | | Wyndham Clark | 18% | +9.0pp | 6,644 | | Brooks Koepka | 16% | **-13.0pp** | 16,360 | | Matt Fitzpatrick | 14% | +13.0pp | 2,319 | | Hideki Matsuyama | 14% | -4.0pp | 2,942 | | Kristoffer Reitan | 13% | **+19.0pp** | 768 | | Jake Knapp | 12% | +4.0pp | 3,517 | | Ben Griffin | 11% | +8.0pp | 888 | | Hao-Tong Li | 11% | +14.0pp | 2,373 | | Marco Penge | 10% | **-18.0pp** | 100 | | Si Woo Kim | 9% | -2.0pp | 90 | | Keegan Bradley | 8% | +7.0pp | 21 | | Aaron Rai | 8% | -12.0pp | 615 | | Ludvig Aberg | 7% | +7.0pp | 7,118 | | Collin Morikawa | 7% | +2.0pp | 1,510 | | Max Homa | 7% | **-18.0pp** | 4,932 | | Patrick Cantlay | 4% | -10.0pp | 1,146 | | Russell Henley | 4% | -11.0pp | 199 | | Jon Rahm | 3% | -8.0pp | 3,722 | | Jordan Spieth | 3% | -11.0pp | 5,228 | | Brian Campbell | 3% | **-27.0pp** | 115 | | Brian Harman | 3% | -7.0pp | 1 | | Dustin Johnson | 3% | -8.0pp | 2,009 | | Maverick McNealy | 3% | ~0pp | 91 | | Nick Taylor | 3% | **+15.0pp** | 144 | | Justin Thomas | 2% | **-26.0pp** | 782 | | Michael Brennan | 2% | +1.0pp | 814 | | Jacob Bridgeman | 2% | -11.0pp | 474 | | Ryan Gerard | 2% | ~0pp | 170 | | Viktor Hovland | 2% | ~0pp | 410 | | Sungjae Im | 2% | -5.0pp | 981 | | Adam Scott | 2% | **-16.0pp** | 306 | | Sepp Straka | 2% | **-26.0pp** | 600 | | Corey Conners | 1% | +5.0pp | 333 | | Kurt Kitayama | 1% | -4.0pp | 742 | | Gary Woodland | 1% | -3.0pp | 955 | **Net: 22 of 48 contracts rose on a combined volume of 292,015, as probability shifted dramatically to align with the live 36-hole leaderboard.** ## What's Driving the Shift The repricing is a direct reflection of on-course performance at Augusta National Golf Club after two rounds of play [8]. * **McIlroy's Dominant Lead:** Defending champion Rory McIlroy fired a seven-under-par 65, the lowest round of the week, to build a historic six-shot lead at 12-under par [4, 5]. His performance, which included six birdies in his final seven holes, has led traders to price his chances of a Top 5 finish at 95%, a near-certainty. * **Pre-Tournament Favorites Stumble:** Scottie Scheffler, who began the tournament with a two-under 70, struggled in the second round with a two-over 74 [4, 6]. His drop to T24 at even par triggered the 42.0 percentage point collapse in his market price. Other notable players saw similar declines, with Xander Schauffele (T16, -2 par) dropping 20.0pp and Brooks Koepka (T13, -3 par) falling 13.0pp as they sit outside the current top five [4]. * **Challengers Emerge from the Pack:** The probability shed by underperforming players was absorbed by those who climbed the leaderboard. Patrick Reed and Sam Burns, who share second place at six-under par, saw their odds rise accordingly [4]. Tommy Fleetwood, in a tie for fourth at five-under, experienced a 24.0pp surge to 47%, while Cameron Young's five-under 67 on Friday vaulted him to T7 and boosted his contract price by 28.0pp [1, 4]. ## Market Context This market shift exemplifies how live sports prediction markets function, moving from pricing based on historical performance and expert opinion to reflecting real-time, in-play data. The high aggregate probability of 677% across all contracts indicates that the market sees more than five players having a plausible path to a Top 5 finish, which is typical at the halfway point of a major golf tournament. The high volume of trading on Friday confirms that market participants are actively re-evaluating probabilities based on the 36-hole scores. ## What to Watch The market will continue to update dynamically throughout the weekend's play. Round 3 is scheduled for Saturday, April 11, with the final round on Sunday, April 12 [3]. While Rory McIlroy has a significant lead, Augusta National is known for producing dramatic changes in momentum, a factor traders will be watching closely [5]. Any significant charges up the leaderboard or stumbles by the current leaders will likely trigger further repricing. ## Related Analysis - [Read the complete market report for The Masters: Top 5 Finishers](/markets/sports/golf/the-masters-top-5-finishers/) ### Relevant Answer Library - [Why do prediction market probabilities change so quickly after news events?](/answers/why-do-prediction-market-probabilities-change-so-quickly-after-news-events) - [How do fees and platform rules affect prediction market prices?](/answers/how-do-fees-and-platform-rules-affect-prediction-market-prices) - [How do I calculate expected value (EV) for a trade in a prediction market?](/answers/how-do-i-calculate-expected-value-for-a-trade-in-a-prediction-market) - [Browse all Answer Library topics](/answer-library)