# Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev: Total Games

Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev (May 14)

Updated: May 14, 2026

Category: Sports

Tags: Tennis

HTML: /markets/sports/tennis/martin-landaluce-vs-daniil-medvedev-total-games/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** The **model** sees potential mispricing: Over 16.5 games at **61.5%** **model** vs **0.0%** **market**, suggesting the **market** may be underestimating the total games despite Daniil Medvedev's expected comfortable straight-sets win.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Daniil Medvedev is expected to win comfortably, likely in straight sets.** - **Market** sentiment and simulation projections indicate a lower total number of games.
- An explicit tip of "Under 23.5 games" reinforces unlikelihood of exceeding this threshold.
- A sports **model** projects 21.4 total games, with a **77%** straight-sets chance.
- Landaluce winning a set or forcing tiebreaks appears likely to exceed 21.5 games.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** indicates **61.5%** **probability** versus 0c **market**, implying a 61.5 percentage point gap for fewer total games.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Over 21.5 games | 55.0% | 48.0% | Market sentiment and projections indicate Medvedev is expected to win comfortably, resulting in a lower total number of games. |
| Over 16.5 games | 0.0% | 61.5% | Simulation projections indicate an expected total of 21.4 games, suggesting this threshold will likely be surpassed. |
| Over 26.5 games | 0.0% | 0.4% | Expert betting tips and projections suggest a comfortable Medvedev win, making this high threshold unlikely. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Over 21.5 games | 55.0% | 48.0% |
| Over 16.5 games | 0.0% | 61.5% |
| Over 26.5 games | 0.0% | 0.4% |

- Expiration: May 28, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has exhibited a sharp upward trend, moving from a starting price of 2.0% to its current level of 22.0%. The entire price action is defined by a single significant movement: a 20 percentage point spike on May 14, 2026. According to the provided context, this price surge appears to be driven by a revised expectation of the match's competitiveness. This shift in outlook is reportedly linked to Martin Landaluce's unexpectedly strong performance on clay courts combined with Daniil Medvedev's historical inconsistencies on the same surface. The initial low price of 2.0% served as a floor before this reassessment occurred.

The market sentiment has clearly shifted from a very low probability to a more moderate 22.0% likelihood for a higher total game count. This suggests that traders now see a greater chance for a longer, more contested match than initially anticipated. The key price points are the initial floor at 2.0% and the current level of 22.0%, which represents the new market consensus.

A critical observation from the chart data is the total trading volume of zero contracts. This indicates that the price movement may not be the result of broad market activity or conviction. Instead, it could reflect an adjustment by a market maker or the actions of a very small number of participants. The lack of volume suggests an illiquid market, and while the price indicates a significant change in perceived probability, it does not appear to be supported by widespread trading activity.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 May 14, 2026: 20.0pp spike

Price increased from 2.0% to 22.0%

**Outcome:** Over 16.5 games

**What happened:** The primary driver of the price movement was a revised expectation of the match's competitiveness, likely fueled by Martin Landaluce's unexpected strong clay court performance and Daniil Medvedev's historical inconsistencies on the surface [[^]](https://www.sportskeeda.com/tennis/news-daniil-medvedev-vs-martin-landaluce-preview-head-to-head-odds-prediction-betting-tips-italian-open-2026). Analysts noted Landaluce's "short-term clay Elo is currently spiking" due to his recent upsets, leading to predictions of a "tight three-setter" rather than a straight-sets victory for Medvedev [[^]](https://lastwordonsports.com/tennis/2026/05/13/atp-rome-predictions-sinner-rublev/). This shift in analytical consensus suggested a higher total number of games, acting as the catalyst for the "Over 16.5 games" market spike [[^]](https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/tennis/landaluce-vs-medvedev-picks-odds-predictions-rome-quarterfinal/). No specific social media activity from key figures or viral narratives were identified as influencing this movement; therefore, social media was irrelevant.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the total completed games in the Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev match exceed 21.5; otherwise, it resolves to NO. The market opened on May 13, 2026, and closes after the outcome occurs or by May 28, 2026, with payouts projected 5 minutes after closing. If the match is canceled before a ball is played, it resolves to a fair price; if postponed, the market remains open for up to two weeks; and if a retirement occurs, settled markets resolve based on completed play, while unsettled markets resolve to Fair Market Price.

## Market Discussion

Public discussion for the Landaluce vs Medvedev Rome quarterfinal on May 14, 2026, shows differing expectations for total games [[^]](https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/tennis/landaluce-vs-medvedev-picks-odds-predictions-rome-quarterfinal/). SportsBettingDime explicitly highlights "Over 22.5 total games" as a strong play [[^]](https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/tennis/landaluce-vs-medvedev-picks-odds-predictions-rome-quarterfinal/), contrasting with a model-style preview that projects 21.4 total games and a 77% probability of a straight-sets win for Medvedev [[^]](https://tennismattch.com/landaluce-vs-medvedev-rome-quarterfinal-preview-2026/). This expectation of limited total games is further supported by a source recommending Medvedev -3.5 games and predicting a 0-2 match result for Landaluce [[^]](https://www.goonersguide.com/tennis-pick-59319-Martin-Landaluce-vs-Daniil-Medvedev.htm).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Over 16.5 games | 21% | 99% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Over 21.5 games | 50% | 55% | 55% | $730.83 | $729.83 |
| Over 26.5 games | 1% | 79% | 0% | $0 | $0 |

## How do Daniil Medvedev's and Martin Landaluce's service and return statistics on clay courts compare during the 2026 season?

Daniil Medvedev 2026 Clay Win Rate | 50% (2-2) [[^]](https://stats.tennismylife.org/players/daniil-medvedev/clay)[[^]](https://www.itftennis.com/en/players/daniil-medvedev/800321548/rus/mt/S/overview/) |
Martin Landaluce Career Clay Win Rate | 49.4% (42-43) [[^]](https://matchstat.com/tennis/player/Martin%20Landaluce/) |
Martin Landaluce Recent Second-Serve Points Won | 45.08% [[^]](https://matchstat.com/tennis/player/Martin%20Landaluce/) |

**During the 2026 season, Landaluce holds a superior clay court record**

During the 2026 season, Landaluce holds a superior clay court record. Daniil Medvedev's 2026 clay court season shows a 2-2 win-loss record, equating to a **50%** win rate [[^]](https://stats.tennismylife.org/players/daniil-medvedev/clay)[[^]](https://www.itftennis.com/en/players/daniil-medvedev/800321548/rus/mt/S/overview/). Martin Landaluce has played more matches on clay in the 2026 season, securing a record of 10 wins and 5 losses [[^]](https://matchstat.com/tennis/player/Martin%20Landaluce/), although another source indicates his recent clay form is 2-2 (**50%**) [[^]](https://stats.tennismylife.org/players/martin-landaluce/clay). Over the last six months, Landaluce has demonstrated a slight advantage in second-serve effectiveness, winning **45.08%** of points compared to Medvedev's **41.18%** [[^]](https://matchstat.com/tennis/player/Martin%20Landaluce/). Landaluce also maintains a marginal lead in first-serve return points won, achieving **25.97%** against Medvedev's **25.59%** [[^]](https://matchstat.com/tennis/player/Martin%20Landaluce/).

Medvedev exhibits stronger career clay court service point win rates. Considering their full careers on clay, Daniil Medvedev holds a record of 47-37, translating to a **56.0%** win rate [[^]](https://stats.tennismylife.org/players/daniil-medvedev/clay), with an improved win rate of **73.0%** (27-10) since 2023 [[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/tennis/comments/1klvux1/20242025_medvedev_on_clay_161_against_players/)[[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/tennis/comments/1kjznoh/medvedev_since_2023_has_a_2710_730_win_rate_on/). He wins approximately **64%** of his total career service points on clay, including **75%** on his first serve and **51%** on his second serve [[^]](https://grokipedia.com/page/Daniil_Medvedev_career_statistics). Martin Landaluce's career clay court record stands at 42-43, yielding a **49.4%** win rate [[^]](https://matchstat.com/tennis/player/Martin%20Landaluce/). Landaluce has won **62.8%** of his career service points on clay, with **69.3%** on his first serve and **49.3%** on his second serve, and saves **61.8%** of break points [[^]](https://matchstat.com/tennis/player/Martin%20Landaluce/).

## What specific match scenarios, such as Landaluce winning a set, would most likely push the total games over the 21.5 threshold?

Competitive two-set scenario total | 22 games (Landaluce 7-5, Medvedev 6-4) [[^]](https://www.tennislibrary.com/what-does-21-5-mean-when-betting-on-tennis-6104829/)[[^]](https://bettingoptions.com.ng/Betting/2025/08/05/over-21-in-tennis-sports-betting-explained-with-details-and-betting-tips/) |
Tiebreak scenario game total | 22-24 games (e.g., 7-6, 6-4) [[^]](https://gamblingcalc.com/betting/tennis/total-games-over-under-calculator/)[[^]](https://www.tennislibrary.com/what-does-21-5-mean-when-betting-on-tennis-6104829/)[[^]](https://bettingoptions.com.ng/Betting/2025/08/05/over-21-in-tennis-sports-betting-explained-with-details-and-betting-tips/) |
Primary path to clear 21.5 games | Competitive set scores rather than quick straight-set blowout [[^]](https://polymarket.com/sports/atp/atp-landalu-medvede-2026-05-14)[[^]](https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/tennis/landaluce-vs-medvedev-picks-odds-predictions-rome-quarterfinal/)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxatpmatch/atp-tennis-match/kxatpmatch-26may14lanmed) |

**Landaluce winning a set or forcing tiebreaks often exceeds 21.5 games**

Landaluce winning a set or forcing tiebreaks often exceeds 21.5 games. Specific match scenarios where Martin Landaluce wins a set are most likely to push the total games beyond the 21.5 threshold. For instance, if Landaluce secures a set 7-5 and Daniil Medvedev wins another 6-4, the total reaches 22 games, surpassing the 21.5 line even before a third set might be played [[^]](https://www.tennislibrary.com/what-does-21-5-mean-when-betting-on-tennis-6104829/)[[^]](https://bettingoptions.com.ng/Betting/2025/08/05/over-21-in-tennis-sports-betting-explained-with-details-and-betting-tips/). Tiebreaks are also a significant factor; a 7-6 set victory for Landaluce combined with a 6-4 or 6-3 set win for Medvedev typically results in 22 to 24 total games [[^]](https://gamblingcalc.com/betting/tennis/total-games-over-under-calculator/)[[^]](https://www.tennislibrary.com/what-does-21-5-mean-when-betting-on-tennis-6104829/)[[^]](https://bettingoptions.com.ng/Betting/2025/08/05/over-21-in-tennis-sports-betting-explained-with-details-and-betting-tips/). Generally, two very close sets, such as 7-5, 7-5 (24 games) or 7-6, 6-4 (23 games), consistently propel the total past 21.5 games [[^]](https://www.tennislibrary.com/what-does-21-5-mean-when-betting-on-tennis-6104829/)[[^]](https://gambling-park.com/betting-theory/total-games-over-20-5-in-tennis/).

A deciding third set significantly increases total game counts. The likelihood of a deciding third set is a crucial element for exceeding the game total. If Landaluce either wins the second set or forces it into a tiebreak, a third set becomes highly probable [[^]](https://bettingoptions.com.ng/Betting/2025/08/05/over-21-in-tennis-sports-betting-explained-with-details-and-betting-tips/)[[^]](https://gamblingcalc.com/betting/tennis/total-games-over-under-calculator/)[[^]](https://www.tennislibrary.com/what-does-21-5-mean-when-betting-on-tennis-6104829/). Any best-of-3 match that extends to a deciding set significantly increases the chances of achieving 22 or more total games compared to matches ending in straight sets [[^]](https://bettingoptions.com.ng/Betting/2025/08/05/over-21-in-tennis-sports-betting-explained-with-details-and-betting-tips/)[[^]](https://gamblingcalc.com/betting/tennis/total-games-over-under-calculator/)[[^]](https://www.tennislibrary.com/what-does-21-5-mean-when-betting-on-tennis-6104829/). Current **market** analysis indicates that competitive set scores are the primary pathway to clear the 21.5 game line, rather than swift straight-set victories for either player [[^]](https://polymarket.com/sports/atp/atp-landalu-medvede-2026-05-14)[[^]](https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/tennis/landaluce-vs-medvedev-picks-odds-predictions-rome-quarterfinal/)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxatpmatch/atp-tennis-match/kxatpmatch-26may14lanmed).

## How has Daniil Medvedev's historical performance at the Italian Open and on European clay courts influenced current match predictions?

Clay-court win % (May 2021) | 35% [[^]](https://www.essentiallysports.com/why-does-daniil-medvedev-have-a-poor-record-on-clay-especially-at-french-open-atp-tennis-news/)[[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/tennis/comments/1kjznoh/medvedev_since_2023_has_a_2710_730_win_rate_on/) |
Clay-court win rate (since 2023) | 73% (27-10) [[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/tennis/comments/1kjznoh/medvedev_since_2023_has_a_2710_730_win_rate_on/)[[^]](https://stats.tennismylife.org/players/daniil-medvedev/clay) |
Medvedev win chance (vs Landaluce) | 71% [[^]](https://www.dimers.com/bet-hub/ten/schedule/2026_1_atp_2781_903987_163504)[[^]](https://www.bleachernation.com/picks/2026/05/12/landaluce-vs-medvedev-prediction-at-the-internazionali-bnl-ditalia-thursday-may-14/) |

**Daniil Medvedev's clay-court performance has dramatically improved after a historical struggle**

Daniil Medvedev's clay-court performance has dramatically improved after a historical struggle. Prior to 2023, he notably expressed his dislike for clay and held a dismal win percentage of **35%** as of May 2021, with a 16-23 record on the surface [[^]](https://www.essentiallysports.com/why-does-daniil-medvedev-have-a-poor-record-on-clay-especially-at-french-open-atp-tennis-news/)[[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/tennis/comments/1kjznoh/medvedev_since_2023_has_a_2710_730_win_rate_on/). His significant turnaround occurred with his triumph at the 2023 Rome Masters, where he secured his first career clay-court title by defeating Holger Rune [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniil_Medvedev)[[^]](https://stats.tennismylife.org/players/daniil-medvedev/clay)[[^]](https://www.skysports.com/tennis/news/12110/12886404/italian-open-daniil-medvedev-claims-first-clay-court-title-with-victory-in-rome-ahead-of-french-open)[[^]](https://www.olympics.com/en/news/daniil-medvedev-italian-open-roland-garros-holger-rune-rome-french-open-clay). This victory marked a turning point, as his clay-court win rate has since dramatically improved to **73%** (27-10), bringing his overall career clay-court record to 47-37 (**56.0%**) [[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/tennis/comments/1kjznoh/medvedev_since_2023_has_a_2710_730_win_rate_on/)[[^]](https://stats.tennismylife.org/players/daniil-medvedev/clay). Additionally, Medvedev reached the quarterfinals of the French Open in 2021 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniil_Medvedev)[[^]](https://www.rolandgarros.com/en-us/players/28836-d.medvedev)[[^]](https://www.theguardian.com/sport/article/2024/jun/02/tennis-medvedev-zverev-machac-griekspoor-sabalenka-rybakina).

Medvedev is the clear favorite for his upcoming Italian Open match. For his May 14, 2026, match against Martin Landaluce at the Italian Open, current predictions favor Medvedev due to his recent successes on clay, including his 2023 Rome title and his comfortable victories en route to the 2026 Italian Open quarterfinals [[^]](https://www.sportskeeda.com/tennis/news-daniil-medvedev-vs-martin-landaluce-preview-head-to-head-odds-prediction-betting-tips-italian-open-2026)[[^]](https://www.dimers.com/bet-hub/ten/schedule/2026_1_atp_2781_903987_163504)[[^]](https://www.bleachernation.com/picks/2026/05/12/landaluce-vs-medvedev-prediction-at-the-internazionali-bnl-ditalia-thursday-may-14/)[[^]](https://www.freetips.com/tennis/martin-landaluce-vs-daniil-medvedev-betting-tips-live-stream-20260513-0015/)[[^]](https://www.beinsports.com/en-us/tennis/articles/medvedev-marches-into-italian-open-quarters-after-victory-over-tirante-2026-05-12). Prediction markets reflect this favoritism, assigning him approximately a **71%** chance of winning, with betting odds ranging from -260 to -275 [[^]](https://www.dimers.com/bet-hub/ten/schedule/2026_1_atp_2781_903987_163504)[[^]](https://www.bleachernation.com/picks/2026/05/12/landaluce-vs-medvedev-prediction-at-the-internazionali-bnl-ditalia-thursday-may-14/). This upcoming match will be their first professional encounter [[^]](https://www.sportskeeda.com/tennis/news-daniil-medvedev-vs-martin-landaluce-preview-head-to-head-odds-prediction-betting-tips-italian-open-2026). However, his opponent, Martin Landaluce, a promising Spanish talent, is also enjoying a strong run at the 2026 Italian Open as a lucky loser, having reached the quarterfinals and dropped only one set across his five matches in Rome [[^]](https://www.redbull.com/us-en/athlete/martin-landaluce)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mart%C3%ADn_Landaluce)[[^]](https://www.sportskeeda.com/tennis/news-daniil-medvedev-vs-martin-landaluce-preview-head-to-head-odds-prediction-betting-tips-italian-open-2026)[[^]](https://www.olympics.com/en/news/exclusive-martin-landaluce-spanish-tennis-rafael-nadal-legacy)[[^]](https://www.sportytrader.com/us/picks/martin-landaluce-daniil-medvedev-348950/). Some analyses suggest that betting on Landaluce with a +1.5 Set Handicap could be a worthwhile consideration, indicating the potential for a competitive match where Landaluce might win at least one set [[^]](https://www.sportytrader.com/us/picks/martin-landaluce-daniil-medvedev-348950/).

## What historical data is available for first-time ATP matchups between established top-5 players like Medvedev and teenage talents like Landaluce?

Games in specific first-ever ATP match | 55 games [[^]](https://www.sportskeeda.com/tennis/news-holger-rune-becomes-first-ever-player-beat-5-top-10-players-single-atp-tour-event)[[^]](https://www.tennis.com/news/articles/jakub-mensik-first-teenager-to-beat-novak-djokovic-straight-sets-completed-match-miami-final-upset)[[^]](https://sports.inquirer.net/471219/alcaraz-becomes-youngest-player-in-atp-top-5-since-nadal)[[^]](https://www.express.co.uk/sport/tennis/1692917/Holger-Rune-history-Novak-Djokovic-Paris-Masters-final-tennis-news-result-score)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6KeX1j2IOY)[[^]](https://www.si.com/tennis/american-teen-phenom-learner-tien-upsets-daniil-medvedev-australian-open-five-set-thriller)[[^]](https://www.itftennis.com/en/news-and-media/articles/tien-becomes-third-teenager-to-beat-a-top-10-opponent-at-aussie-open/) |
Games in Mensik's win vs. World No. 5 | 26 games [[^]](https://www.tennis.com/news/articles/jakub-mensik-first-teenager-to-beat-novak-djokovic-straight-sets-completed-match-miami-final-upset) |
Games in Rune's win vs. World No. 3 | 17 games [[^]](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/tennis/top-stories/danish-teenager-rune-wins-first-atp-title-in-munich/articleshow/91240148.cms) |

**No specific historical data exists for Medvedev-Landaluce first-time matches**

No specific historical data exists for Medvedev-Landaluce first-time matches. Research does not contain historical information for first-time ATP matchups specifically involving Daniil Medvedev or Martin Landaluce. However, one documented first-ever ATP Tour encounter on May 14, 2026, noted as '94', accumulated a total of 55 games, with tie-breaks counted as one game [[^]](https://www.sportskeeda.com/tennis/news-holger-rune-becomes-first-ever-player-beat-5-top-10-players-single-atp-tour-event)[[^]](https://www.tennis.com/news/articles/jakub-mensik-first-teenager-to-beat-novak-djokovic-straight-sets-completed-match-miami-final-upset)[[^]](https://sports.inquirer.net/471219/alcaraz-becomes-youngest-player-in-atp-top-5-since-nadal)[[^]](https://www.express.co.uk/sport/tennis/1692917/Holger-Rune-history-Novak-Djokovic-Paris-Masters-final-tennis-news-result-score)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A6KeX1j2IOY)[[^]](https://www.si.com/tennis/american-teen-phenom-learner-tien-upsets-daniil-medvedev-australian-open-five-set-thriller)[[^]](https://www.itftennis.com/en/news-and-media/articles/tien-becomes-third-teenager-to-beat-a-top-10-opponent-at-aussie-open/).

Historical matches show varied outcomes for teenage talents against top opponents. Insights into encounters between teenage talents and highly-ranked opponents are available from other historical data. For instance, at the 2025 Miami Open, Jakub Mensik defeated a player ranked 5th in straight sets, totaling 26 games [[^]](https://www.tennis.com/news/articles/jakub-mensik-first-teenager-to-beat-novak-djokovic-straight-sets-completed-match-miami-final-upset). Similarly, Holger Rune secured a win against a player ranked 3rd at the 2022 Munich tournament, completing the match in 17 games [[^]](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/sports/tennis/top-stories/danish-teenager-rune-wins-first-atp-title-in-munich/articleshow/91240148.cms).

Further examples highlight teenagers' success against high-ranked players. Carlos Alcaraz won a five-set match against a player ranked 3rd at the 2021 US Open, reaching 51 games [[^]](https://www.tennis365.com/facts-stats/youngest-men-beat-top-10-player-grand-slam-carlos-alcaraz-joao-fonseca). Additionally, Joao Fonseca secured a victory against a 9th-ranked opponent at the 2025 Australian Open in three sets, totaling 35 games [[^]](https://www.tennis365.com/facts-stats/youngest-men-beat-top-10-player-grand-slam-carlos-alcaraz-joao-fonseca)[[^]](https://www.tennisworldusa.org/tennis/news/ATP_Tennis/151524/teen-sensation-joao-fonseca-earns-milestone-top10-win-nears-carlos-alcarazs-feat/).

## How does Martin Landaluce's path through the 2026 Italian Open compare to Daniil Medvedev's in terms of opponent quality and total court time?

Landaluce entry status | Lucky loser [[^]](https://russpain.com/en/news-3/martin-landaluse-advances-to-rome-masters-1000-round-of-16-after-two-wins-455809/) |
Landaluce vs. Bellucci duration | 1 hour 47 minutes [[^]](https://www.spaziotennis.com/internazionali-bnl-ditalia/internazionali-ditalia-2026-bellucci-si-arrende-in-due-set-a-landaluce/130062) |
Quarterfinal date | May 14 [[^]](https://tennisuptodate.com/atp/rome-open-atp-2026-draw-schedule-entry-list-prize-money-and-predictions) |

**Martin Landaluce advanced through early rounds with two key wins**

Martin Landaluce advanced through early rounds with two key wins. He entered the main draw of the 2026 Italian Open as a lucky loser and secured victories against Marin Čilić and Mattia Bellucci [[^]](https://russpain.com/en/news-3/martin-landaluse-advances-to-rome-masters-1000-round-of-16-after-two-wins-455809/). Landaluce's match against Mattia Bellucci lasted 1 hour and 47 minutes [[^]](https://www.spaziotennis.com/internazionali-bnl-ditalia/internazionali-ditalia-2026-bellucci-si-arrende-in-due-set-a-landaluce/130062).

Daniil Medvedev completed one match, but overall comparison is difficult. His confirmed Round of 16 match against Thiago Agustín Tirante lasted 1 hour and 22 minutes [[^]](https://www.beinsports.com/en-us/tennis/articles/medvedev-marches-into-italian-open-quarters-after-victory-over-tirante-2026-05-12). A direct comparison of the overall opponent quality for Landaluce and Medvedev, or their total court time, is not possible due to insufficient information in the available research [[^]](https://www.beinsports.com/en-us/tennis/articles/medvedev-marches-into-italian-open-quarters-after-victory-over-tirante-2026-05-12).

Landaluce and Medvedev are scheduled to face off in the quarterfinals. This quarterfinal match is explicitly listed for May 14 [[^]](https://tennisuptodate.com/atp/rome-open-atp-2026-draw-schedule-entry-list-prize-money-and-predictions). Associated with this match is a **market** named “Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev: Total Games,” which indicates that the resolution will be based on the total games played in that single match [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxatpmatch/atp-tennis-match/kxatpmatch-26may14lanmed).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Current market probabilities heavily favor Medvedev against Landaluce for the May 14, 2026 event, with prediction markets showing Medvedev at 71¢ and Landaluce at 28¢, with the market resolving on the event day [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/tennis/events/landaluce-vs-medvedev-may-14-2026/).** A sports **model** further reinforces this expectation, citing Medvedev as the overwhelming favorite with a simulation-projected expected total of 21.4 games and a **77%** chance of a straight-sets result for the Rome 2026 Quarterfinal [[^]](https://tennismattch.com/landaluce-vs-medvedev-rome-quarterfinal-preview-2026/).

**Key catalysts that could alter these market probabilities revolve around the actual match performance, particularly concerning Landaluce's ability to challenge the favored outcome.** While specific set betting prices on a sportsbook show Landaluce 2-0 at +450 and Landaluce 2-1 at +500 [[^]](https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/tennis/atp-rome-2026/martin-landaluce-v-daniil-medvedev-35603237), any deviation from the anticipated straight-set win for Medvedev could lead to shifts. Furthermore, the varying recommendations in total-games markets—with one preview explicitly recommending an Under 23.5 games angle while other writeups discuss Over 22.5 games [[^]](https://www.thestatszone.com/martin-landaluce-vs-daniil-medvedev-preview-prediction-2026-italian-open-quarter-final-186402)[[^]](https://www.sportsbettingdime.com/news/tennis/landaluce-vs-medvedev-picks-odds-predictions-rome-quarterfinal/)—suggest that the total number of games played could significantly impact betting outcomes and perceptions.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** May 28, 2026
- **Closes:** May 28, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Current **market** probabilities heavily favor Medvedev against Landaluce for the May 14, 2026 event, with prediction markets showing Medvedev at 71¢ and Landaluce at 28¢, with the **market** resolving on the event day [^] .
- A sports **model** further reinforces this expectation, citing Medvedev as the overwhelming favorite with a simulation-projected expected total of 21.4 games and a **77%** chance of a straight-sets result for the Rome 2026 Quarterfinal [^] .
- Key catalysts that could alter these **market** probabilities revolve around the actual match performance, particularly concerning Landaluce's ability to challenge the favored outcome.
- While specific set betting prices on a sportsbook show Landaluce 2-0 at +450 and Landaluce 2-1 at +500 [^] , any deviation from the anticipated straight-set win for Medvedev could lead to shifts.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 12 resolved YES, 8 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXATPGTOTAL-26MAY13JODDAR-27: YES (May 14, 2026)
- KXATPGTOTAL-26MAY13JODDAR-22: YES (May 14, 2026)
- KXATPGTOTAL-26MAY13JODDAR-17: YES (May 14, 2026)
- KXATPGTOTAL-26MAY13RUUKHA-28: NO (May 13, 2026)
- KXATPGTOTAL-26MAY13RUUKHA-23: NO (May 13, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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