# Leverkusen at Stuttgart: Spreads

VFB vs LEV (May 9)

Updated: May 4, 2026

Category: Sports

Tags: Soccer

HTML: /markets/sports/soccer/leverkusen-at-stuttgart-spreads/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Leverkusen to win by over 2.5 goals, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Leverkusen's backup goalkeeper Janis Blaswich has an inconsistent performance record.** - No major Asian Handicap line shifts indicate absent large professional wagers.
- Both Hoeneß and Alonso favor offensive strategies in high-stakes matches.
- Stuttgart's defense will feature Chabot and Hendriks due to Zagadou's injury.
- This match is critical for both teams' Champions League qualification.
- Stuttgart enters with strong momentum, having beaten Leverkusen 4-1.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** sees **0.7%** **probability** vs 0c **market** price, implying potential significant **market** undervaluation.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Leverkusen wins by over 2.5 goals | 10.0% | 0.0% | The most recent head-to-head match saw Stuttgart beat Leverkusen 4-1 away from home, and Stuttgart is currently higher in the league table, playing at home, while Leverkusen's goalkeeper is injured, all of which strongly suggest that Leverkusen winning by over 2.5 goals is highly unlikely. |
| Stuttgart wins by over 2.5 goals | 0.0% | 0.7% | Stuttgart achieved a 4-1 victory against Leverkusen away in January 2026, directly demonstrating their capability to win by over 2.5 goals against this opponent, which contrasts with Leverkusen's historical dominance and slightly better recent form that typically suggest a lower probability for such a large margin win for Stuttgart. |
| Stuttgart wins by over 1.5 goals | 0.0% | 0.8% | The debiased anchor of 0.0% is definitively contradicted by Stuttgart's recent 4-1 away win against Leverkusen in January 2026, demonstrating the outcome is possible, despite current general match odds not favoring Stuttgart for a simple win. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Leverkusen wins by over 2.5 goals | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Stuttgart wins by over 2.5 goals | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| Stuttgart wins by over 1.5 goals | 0.0% | 0.8% |
| Leverkusen wins by over 1.5 goals | 0.0% | 0.0% |

- Expiration: May 23, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market's price has trended upward, moving from a starting price of 2.0% to its current level of 10.0%. The entire price action is defined by a single, sharp 8.0 percentage point spike that occurred between May 2nd and May 4th. This movement established 10.0% as the current high for the market, where the price has remained since.

The cause of the price spike cannot be attributed to new information or market activity. The context notes a lack of relevant news on the day of the price change. More importantly, the chart summary and data indicate a total trading volume of zero contracts. This lack of volume is the most critical factor in this analysis. It means the price movement was not the result of buying and selling pressure from traders. Instead, the spike reflects an adjustment by the market's creator or an automated pricing algorithm, rather than a shift in participant sentiment.

The zero-volume condition signifies a complete lack of market conviction and participation. Consequently, it is impossible to identify any meaningful support or resistance levels, as these are formed by actual trading activity. The chart's price does not reflect the collective wisdom or sentiment of traders but simply the offered odds. The upward adjustment suggests a revision in the opening odds, but without any trades, the market itself remains untested and illiquid.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 May 02, 2026: 18.0pp spike

Price increased from 2.0% to 20.0%

**Outcome:** Stuttgart wins by over 1.5 goals

**What happened:** Web research indicates no match between Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart occurred on May 2, 2026; instead, Leverkusen played RB Leipzig and Stuttgart faced Hoffenheim on that date [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/bundesliga-game/rb-leipzig-bayer-leverkusen/284897)[[^]](https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/last-gasp-drama-stuttgart-snatch-153500860.html). Crucially, there are no social media or traditional news reports identifying an 18 percentage point odds spike for "Stuttgart wins by over 1.5 goals" against Leverkusen around May 2, 2026 [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/soccer/events/leverkusen-at-stuttgart-spreads-may-09-2026/). Therefore, the primary driver for this described price movement cannot be identified based on the provided information, as the event itself lacks supporting evidence. Social media activity was irrelevant, as no corresponding reports of such a price surge were found [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/soccer/events/leverkusen-at-stuttgart-spreads-may-09-2026/).

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Stuttgart defeats Leverkusen by over 1.5 goals in their Bundesliga game, based on 90 minutes plus stoppage time and excluding extra time or penalties. If Stuttgart does not win by more than 1.5 goals, the market resolves to "No." Outcomes are verified by Fox Sports and ESPN, with the market closing after the event or by May 23, 2026, 9:30am EDT, and payouts expected shortly thereafter.

## Market Discussion

Leverkusen is widely favored to win, with implied probabilities often above 50% and early prediction markets reflecting this sentiment [[^]](https://betimate.com/en/football-predictions/vfb-stuttgart-vs-bayer-leverkusen/2026-05-09/game). A high-scoring game is anticipated, with "Over 2.5 goals" (62.73% probability) and "Both Teams to Score – Yes" (69.2% probability) being popular predictions due to both teams' attacking capabilities [[^]](https://betimate.com/en/football-predictions/vfb-stuttgart-vs-bayer-leverkusen/2026-05-09/game). However, a previous encounter on January 10, 2026, saw Stuttgart secure a surprising 4-1 victory over Leverkusen, which could influence spread considerations [[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/1q99urr/match_thread_bayer_leverkusen_vs_vfb_stuttgart/).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Leverkusen wins by over 1.5 goals | 11% | 20% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Leverkusen wins by over 2.5 goals | 5% | 10% | 10% | $1 | $1 |
| Stuttgart wins by over 1.5 goals | 21% | 30% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Stuttgart wins by over 2.5 goals | 10% | 16% | 0% | $0 | $0 |

## How are European Qualification Spots Determined in Bundesliga?

Champions League Qualification | Top four teams in Bundesliga table [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundesliga)[[^]](https://www.bundesliga.com/en/faq/what-are-the-rules-and-regulations-of-soccer/how-is-european-soccer-structured-with-leagues-and-cup-competitions-10568)[[^]](https://www.fifplay.com/bundesliga-format/) |
Europa League Qualification | DFB-Pokal winner (rolls down if qualified via league) [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundesliga)[[^]](https://www.fifplay.com/bundesliga-format/) |
Primary Tie-Breakers | Goal difference, then total goals scored [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundesliga)[[^]](http://www.playoffstatus.com/bundesliga/bundesliga-tiebreakers.html)[[^]](https://en.as.com/soccer/how-is-tiebreak-decided-if-two-teams-finish-level-on-points-in-the-premier-league-f202604-n/)[[^]](https://www.readfootball.com/en/reglament-chempionata-germanii-po-futbolu.html) |

**Bundesliga allocates European qualification spots based on final league performance and cup success**

Bundesliga allocates European qualification spots based on final league performance and cup success. The top four teams at the end of the season directly secure a place in the UEFA Champions League group stage [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundesliga)[[^]](https://www.bundesliga.com/en/faq/what-are-the-rules-and-regulations-of-soccer/how-is-european-soccer-structured-with-leagues-and-cup-competitions-10568)[[^]](https://www.fifplay.com/bundesliga-format/). An additional UEFA Europa League spot is granted to the DFB-Pokal winner; however, if this team has already qualified for a European competition through their league standing, the Europa League spot is then passed to the next highest-placed team in the Bundesliga [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundesliga)[[^]](https://www.fifplay.com/bundesliga-format/). Furthermore, the team that finishes in 6th place in the Bundesliga earns entry into the UEFA Europa Conference League play-off round [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundesliga).

Bundesliga employs comprehensive tie-breaking criteria for teams with equal points. When teams are tied on points at the end of the season, the initial criteria applied are goal difference over the entire season, followed by the total number of goals scored throughout the season [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundesliga)[[^]](http://www.playoffstatus.com/bundesliga/bundesliga-tiebreakers.html)[[^]](https://en.as.com/soccer/how-is-tiebreak-decided-if-two-teams-finish-level-on-points-in-the-premier-league-f202604-n/)[[^]](https://www.readfootball.com/en/reglament-chempionata-germanii-po-futbolu.html). If teams still remain tied after these considerations, further criteria are then evaluated, including their head-to-head record, head-to-head goal difference, head-to-head away goals scored, and the total away goals scored across the entire season [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundesliga)[[^]](http://www.playoffstatus.com/bundesliga/bundesliga-tiebreakers.html)[[^]](https://www.readfootball.com/en/reglament-chempionata-germanii-po-futbolu.html). In the unlikely event that teams remain tied after all these criteria, a play-off match would be organized to determine their final ranking [[^]](https://www.readfootball.com/en/reglament-chempionata-germanii-po-futbolu.html).

Precise qualification scenarios for Stuttgart and Leverkusen cannot be determined without current data. The provided research lacks the current league standings, points, and goal differences for both Stuttgart and Leverkusen, as well as information regarding other concurrent Bundesliga fixtures [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/**2025%**E2%**80%**9326_Bundesliga)[[^]](https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga/news/calendar-for-2025-26-season-bundesliga-29648)[[^]](https://fcbayern.com/en/news/2025/06/fc-bayerns-2025-26-bundesliga-fixture-list-confirmed)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/**2025%**E2%**80%**9326_2._Bundesliga)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundesliga)[[^]](https://www.bundesliga.com/en/faq/what-are-the-rules-and-regulations-of-soccer/how-is-european-soccer-structured-with-leagues-and-cup-competitions-10568)[[^]](https://www.fifplay.com/bundesliga-format/)[[^]](http://www.playoffstatus.com/bundesliga/bundesliga-tiebreakers.html)[[^]](https://en.as.com/soccer/how-is-tiebreak-decided-if-two-teams-finish-level-on-points-in-the-premier-league-f202604-n/)[[^]](https://www.readfootball.com/en/reglament-chempionata-germanii-po-futbolu.html). This absence of crucial real-time data prevents a precise determination of their European qualification scenarios, making it impossible to ascertain if either team would need to win by multiple goals to gain a goal-differential advantage over a rival for a Champions League or Europa League spot [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/**2025%**E2%**80%**9326_Bundesliga)[[^]](https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga/news/calendar-for-2025-26-season-bundesliga-29648)[[^]](https://fcbayern.com/en/news/2025/06/fc-bayerns-2025-26-bundesliga-fixture-list-confirmed)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/**2025%**E2%**80%**9326_2._Bundesliga)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundesliga)[[^]](https://www.bundesliga.com/en/faq/what-are-the-rules-and-regulations-of-soccer/how-is-european-soccer-structured-with-leagues-and-cup-competitions-10568)[[^]](https://www.fifplay.com/bundesliga-format/)[[^]](http://www.playoffstatus.com/bundesliga/bundesliga-tiebreakers.html)[[^]](https://en.as.com/soccer/how-is-tiebreak-decided-if-two-teams-finish-level-on-points-in-the-premier-league-f202604-n/)[[^]](https://www.readfootball.com/en/reglament-chempionata-germanii-po-futbolu.html).

## What Are Janis Blaswich's Goalkeeping Statistics from 2025/26 Bundesliga?

Overall Save Percentage | Approximately 63% [[^]](https://one-versus-one.com/en/players/Janis-Blaswich)[[^]](https://fbref.com/en/players/663e080e/Janis-Blaswich)[[^]](https://www.footymetrics.com/players/788/janis-blaswich) |
Saves from Inside Box | 24 saves [[^]](https://one-versus-one.com/en/players/Janis-Blaswich)[[^]](https://fbref.com/en/players/663e080e/Janis-Blaswich)[[^]](https://www.footymetrics.com/players/788/janis-blaswich) |
Prevented Goals (PSxG-GA) | -11 goals [[^]](https://one-versus-one.com/en/players/Janis-Blaswich)[[^]](https://fbref.com/en/players/663e080e/Janis-Blaswich)[[^]](https://www.footymetrics.com/players/788/janis-blaswich) |

**Janis Blaswich exhibits an inconsistent performance record as Leverkusen's backup goalkeeper**

Janis Blaswich exhibits an inconsistent performance record as Leverkusen's backup goalkeeper. He recorded an overall save percentage of approximately **63%** during the 2025/26 Bundesliga season, making 33 saves while conceding 8 goals [[^]](https://one-versus-one.com/en/players/Janis-Blaswich)[[^]](https://fbref.com/en/players/663e080e/Janis-Blaswich)[[^]](https://www.footymetrics.com/players/788/janis-blaswich). A notable 24 of these saves originated from shots taken inside the box [[^]](https://one-versus-one.com/en/players/Janis-Blaswich)[[^]](https://fbref.com/en/players/663e080e/Janis-Blaswich)[[^]](https://www.footymetrics.com/players/788/janis-blaswich). His Post-Shot Expected Goals minus Goals Allowed (PSxG-GA) was negative, indicating he prevented -11 goals, meaning he conceded 11 goals more than expected based on the quality of shots on target [[^]](https://one-versus-one.com/en/players/Janis-Blaswich)[[^]](https://fbref.com/en/players/663e080e/Janis-Blaswich)[[^]](https://www.footymetrics.com/players/788/janis-blaswich). Blaswich is anticipated to start for Leverkusen in a May 9 match, filling in for the injured Mark Flekken [[^]](https://one-versus-one.com/en/players/Janis-Blaswich)[[^]](https://fbref.com/en/players/663e080e/Janis-Blaswich)[[^]](https://www.footymetrics.com/players/788/janis-blaswich)[[^]](https://www.rotowire.com/soccer/headlines/mark-flekken-injury-suffers-muscular-problems-512444).

Blaswich significantly underperforms against top-tier inside-box finishing profiles. Specifically, he conceded +2.25 goals over expected goals (xG) when facing elite inside-box finishers, including players such as Stuttgart's Serhou Guirassy and Deniz Undav [[^]](https://one-versus-one.com/en/players/Janis-Blaswich)[[^]](https://one-versus-one.com/en/players/1056)[[^]](https://one-versus-one.com/en/players/44929). Serhou Guirassy demonstrates strong finishing, scoring 13 goals from an xG of 15.09, with 61 of his 70 shots originating from inside the box across 27 appearances [[^]](https://one-versus-one.com/en/players/1056)[[^]](http://www.fotmob.com/en-GB/players/448540/serhou-guirassy)[[^]](https://transfermarkt.cz/serhou-guirassy/leistungsdatendetails/spieler/270541/saison/2025/wettbewerb/L1). Similarly, Deniz Undav proved to be an effective scorer, accumulating 17 goals from 14.75 xG, with a high percentage of his 108 total shots also taken from inside the box over 25 appearances [[^]](https://one-versus-one.com/en/players/44929)[[^]](https://www.footymetrics.com/players/1526/deniz-undav).

## Has the Stuttgart vs. Leverkusen Asian Handicap Line Shifted?

Asian Handicap Shift | No 0.25+ goal shift favoring either team with betting volume spike [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/soccer/bundesliga/vfb-stuttgart-bayer-leverkusen-odds-may-9-2026-2418874)[[^]](https://www.pinnacle.com/en/soccer/germany-bundesliga/stuttgart-vs-bayer-leverkusen/1629239555/)[[^]](https://www.soccerpunter.com/live-odds/93795/VfB-Stuttgart-vs-Bayer-04-Leverkusen) |
Current Pinnacle Handicap | Stuttgart favored by 0.25 goals (-0.25) at 1.854 [[^]](https://www.pinnacle.com/en/soccer/germany-bundesliga/stuttgart-vs-bayer-leverkusen/1629239555/) |
Match Date & Market Status | Upcoming on May 9, 2026; market may not be open or detailed [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/soccer/bundesliga/vfb-stuttgart-bayer-leverkusen-odds-may-9-2026-2418874)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/soccer/match/_/gameId/747013/bayer-leverkusen-vfb-stuttgart) |

**No major Asian Handicap line shifts indicate absent large professional wagers**

No major Asian Handicap line shifts indicate absent large professional wagers. Research into the Asian Handicap line for the Stuttgart vs. Leverkusen match reveals no significant movement or shifts of 0.25 goals or more favoring either team. Such shifts, when accompanied by a spike in betting volume, are generally indicative of large professional wagers. However, current analysis indicates no sources have identified this type of activity [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/soccer/bundesliga/vfb-stuttgart-bayer-leverkusen-odds-may-9-2026-2418874)[[^]](https://www.pinnacle.com/en/soccer/germany-bundesliga/stuttgart-vs-bayer-leverkusen/1629239555/)[[^]](https://www.soccerpunter.com/live-odds/93795/VfB-Stuttgart-vs-Bayer-04-Leverkusen).

Current **market** data shows Stuttgart slightly favored, but lacks sharp wager history. Pinnacle's present listing for the Handicap – Match · -0.25 at 1.854 suggests that Stuttgart is favored by 0.25 goals [[^]](https://www.pinnacle.com/en/soccer/germany-bundesliga/stuttgart-vs-bayer-leverkusen/1629239555/). Despite efforts by sites like SoccerPunter to track odds movement, no specific history of sharp wagers or notable **market** changes has been observed for this upcoming game [[^]](https://www.soccerpunter.com/live-odds/93795/VfB-Stuttgart-vs-Bayer-04-Leverkusen). The match is scheduled for May 9, 2026, which is in the future. This timing suggests that the betting **market** may not have fully opened, or comprehensive data concerning professional wagers and significant line movements might not yet be publicly accessible [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/soccer/bundesliga/vfb-stuttgart-bayer-leverkusen-odds-may-9-2026-2418874)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/soccer/match/_/gameId/747013/bayer-leverkusen-vfb-stuttgart).

## How Do Hoeneß and Alonso Approach High-Stakes Matches?

Hoeneß's 2023/24 Stuttgart Bundesliga Finish | 2nd place (MD33 onwards) [[^]](https://totalfootballanalysis.com/data-analysis/sebastian-hoenes-stuttgart-202324-data-analysis-statistics)[[^]](https://www.vfb.de/en/vfb/latest/news/professionals/2324/sebastian-hoeness-vor-augsburg-2324a/) |
Alonso's 2023/24 Leverkusen Bundesliga Status | Unbeaten champions [[^]](https://themastermindsite.com/2023/09/08/xabi-alonso-bayer-leverkusen-tactical-analysis-2023-24/)[[^]](https://kharasportsdaily.com/xabi-alonso-leverkusen-tactics/) |
Managerial Tendency in High-Stakes | Attacking fluidity over defensive parking [[^]](https://totalfootballanalysis.com/article/stuttgart-2023-24-their-tactics-under-sebastian-hoenes-scout-report-tactical-analysis)[[^]](https://www.coachesvoice.com/cv/xabi-alonso-tactics-bayer-leverkusen-2022-23/) |

**Both managers prioritize offensive strategies in high-stakes scenarios**

Both managers prioritize offensive strategies in high-stakes scenarios. Sebastian Hoeneß and Xabi Alonso share a managerial philosophy that favors attacking fluidity and a proactive approach over defensive strategies, even when seeking to protect a result. However, specific data regarding late-game substitutions for either manager in these high-stakes situations is not readily available [[^]](https://totalfootballanalysis.com/article/stuttgart-2023-24-their-tactics-under-sebastian-hoenes-scout-report-tactical-analysis)[[^]](https://www.coachesvoice.com/cv/xabi-alonso-tactics-bayer-leverkusen-2022-23/).

Sebastian Hoeneß implemented an attacking philosophy at Stuttgart. In the 2023/24 season, Hoeneß's Stuttgart demonstrated this attacking mindset en route to securing 2nd place in the Bundesliga. From Matchday 33 onwards, even after Champions League qualification was secured, Hoeneß adopted an 'all-in' strategy. This involved using a 4-4-2 formation, particularly against strong opponents like Leverkusen and Bayern, showcasing a significant attacking presence [[^]](https://totalfootballanalysis.com/data-analysis/sebastian-hoenes-stuttgart-202324-data-analysis-statistics)[[^]](https://www.vfb.de/en/vfb/latest/news/professionals/2324/sebastian-hoeness-vor-augsburg-2324a/).

Xabi Alonso's Leverkusen consistently adopted an aggressive attacking style. In the 2023/24 season, Alonso guided Leverkusen to an unbeaten run, culminating in their championship title. His team consistently employed an attacking 3-4-2-1 formation, which notably utilized wing-backs as crucial attacking players. This strategic setup underscored Alonso's firm commitment to offensive tactics as a means to control matches [[^]](https://themastermindsite.com/2023/09/08/xabi-alonso-bayer-leverkusen-tactical-analysis-2023-24/)[[^]](https://kharasportsdaily.com/xabi-alonso-leverkusen-tactics/).

## Who Are Stuttgart's Likely CB Starters on May 9?

Dan-Axel Zagadou Status | Out with tendon injury (May 9, 2026 match) [[^]](https://www.fotmob.com/en-GB/matches/bayer-leverkusen-vs-vfb-stuttgart/2tb6ui)[[^]](https://www.transfermarkt.at/stuttgart-muss-erneut-auf-zagadou-verzichten-sehr-bitter-fur-ihn-und-fur-uns-quot-/view/news/444328) |
Likely CB Starter 1 | Jeff Chabot (19 games, 2 yellow cards) [[^]](https://onefootball.com/en/news/confirmed-lineups-bayer-leverkusen-vs-vfb-stuttgart-42208239)[[^]](https://www.espn.in/football/team/stats/_/id/134/league/GER.1/view/discipline/sort/yellowCards/dir/asc) |
Likely CB Starter 2 | Ramon Hendriks (21 games, 2 yellow cards) [[^]](https://onefootball.com/en/news/confirmed-lineups-bayer-leverkusen-vs-vfb-stuttgart-42208239)[[^]](https://www.espn.in/football/team/stats/_/id/134/league/GER.1/view/discipline/sort/yellowCards/dir/asc) |

**Dan-Axel Zagadou's injury leads to Jeff Chabot and Ramon Hendriks starting**

Dan-Axel Zagadou's injury leads to Jeff Chabot and Ramon Hendriks starting. Dan-Axel Zagadou will be absent from the May 9, 2026 match due to a tendon injury [[^]](https://www.fotmob.com/en-GB/matches/bayer-leverkusen-vs-vfb-stuttgart/2tb6ui)[[^]](https://www.transfermarkt.at/stuttgart-muss-erneut-auf-zagadou-verzichten-sehr-bitter-fur-ihn-und-fur-uns-quot-/view/news/444328). Although official lineups are not yet available and are typically released about an hour before the 13:30 UTC kickoff, Jeff Chabot and Ramon Hendriks are identified as the likely starting central defenders for Stuttgart [[^]](https://www.fotmob.com/en-GB/matches/bayer-leverkusen-vs-vfb-stuttgart/2tb6ui)[[^]](https://www.espn.co.uk/football/match/_/gameId/747013/bayer-leverkusen-vfb-stuttgart)[[^]](https://onefootball.com/en/news/confirmed-lineups-bayer-leverkusen-vs-vfb-stuttgart-42208239)[[^]](https://www.espn.in/football/team/stats/_/id/134/league/GER.1/view/discipline/sort/yellowCards/dir/asc).

Replacements show low disciplinary risk, unlikely to cause man disadvantage. Regarding disciplinary records, Jeff Chabot has participated in 19 games and received 2 yellow cards [[^]](https://onefootball.com/en/news/confirmed-lineups-bayer-leverkusen-vs-vfb-stuttgart-42208239)[[^]](https://www.espn.in/football/team/stats/_/id/134/league/GER.1/view/discipline/sort/yellowCards/dir/asc)[[^]](https://www.fotmob.com/nl/players/867080/jeff-chabot), while Ramon Hendriks has played 21 games with 2 yellow cards [[^]](https://onefootball.com/en/news/confirmed-lineups-bayer-leverkusen-vs-vfb-stuttgart-42208239)[[^]](https://www.espn.in/football/team/stats/_/id/134/league/GER.1/view/discipline/sort/yellowCards/dir/asc)[[^]](http://www.fotmob.com/en-GB/players/1125187/ramon-hendriks). Neither player accumulated any red cards during the 2025-26 Bundesliga season [[^]](https://www.espn.in/football/team/stats/_/id/134/league/GER.1/view/discipline/sort/yellowCards/dir/asc)[[^]](https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga/news/suspension-red-yellow-cards-latest-list-36490). Consequently, these replacements are considered to have a low risk of incurring a red card, and their moderate yellow card frequency is not expected to result in the team playing with a man disadvantage [[^]](https://www.fotmob.com/nl/players/867080/jeff-chabot)[[^]](http://www.fotmob.com/en-GB/players/1125187/ramon-hendriks).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The Bundesliga Matchday 33 encounter between VfB Stuttgart and Bayer 04 Leverkusen is a critical fixture in the battle for Champions League qualification, with the season ending just a week later on May 17, 2026.** Stuttgart currently sits 4th with 57 points, while Leverkusen is 6th with 55 points, making this match pivotal for both teams' European aspirations [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/**2025%**E2%**80%**9326_Bayer_04_Leverkusen_season)[[^]](https://www.transfermarkt.com/bayer-04-leverkusen/spielplan/verein/15).

**VfB Stuttgart enters this match with strong recent momentum, highlighted by a dominant 4-1 away victory against Leverkusen in January 2026 [[^]](https://topbetpredict.com/match/stuttgart-bayer-leverkusen-2026-05-09/)[[^]](https://footballan.com/game/vfb-stuttgart-bayer-leverkusen-2026-05-09/).** Key offensive catalysts for Stuttgart include Jamie Leweling, who scored twice in that previous encounter, and Deniz Undav, who has been in prolific form with 10 goals in his last 11 appearances [[^]](https://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2026/jan/12/super-stuttgart-sweep-leverkusen-aside-with-in-demand-leweling-to-the-fore)[[^]](https://www.besoccer.com/team/injuries-suspensions/stuttgart). These individual performances could heavily influence the outcome.

**Bayer 04 Leverkusen faces several challenges, including a significant injury list that includes Badé (hamstring), Tapsoba (ligament), and Arthur (syndesmotic), alongside the risk of suspension for key players like Andrich and Garcia due to accumulated yellow cards [[^]](https://www.transfermarkt.us/bayer-04-leverkusen/sperrenundverletzungen/verein/15/plus/1).** Despite their historical H2H advantage, the recent loss to Stuttgart and these squad issues introduce considerable uncertainty, contributing to varied **market** predictions with Stuttgart having ~2.15 odds (**36%**) for a win, while some markets anticipate a high-scoring game favoring Leverkusen [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/soccer/events/leverkusen-at-stuttgart-spreads-may-09-2026/)[[^]](https://topbetpredict.com/match/stuttgart-bayer-leverkusen-2026-05-09/)[[^]](https://footballan.com/game/vfb-stuttgart-bayer-leverkusen-2026-05-09/)[[^]](https://www.wincomparator.com/predictions/stuttgart-bayer-leverkusen-7679849/).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** May 23, 2026
- **Closes:** May 23, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The Bundesliga Matchday 33 encounter between VfB Stuttgart and Bayer 04 Leverkusen is a critical fixture in the battle for Champions League qualification, with the season ending just a week later on May 17, 2026.
- Stuttgart currently sits 4th with 57 points, while Leverkusen is 6th with 55 points, making this match pivotal for both teams' European aspirations [^] [^] .
- VfB Stuttgart enters this match with strong recent momentum, highlighted by a dominant 4-1 away victory against Leverkusen in January 2026 [^] [^] .
- Key offensive catalysts for Stuttgart include Jamie Leweling, who scored twice in that previous encounter, and Deniz Undav, who has been in prolific form with 10 goals in his last 11 appearances [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26MAY03STPM05-STP2: NO (May 03, 2026)
- KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26MAY03STPM05-STP1: NO (May 03, 2026)
- KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26MAY03STPM05-M052: NO (May 03, 2026)
- KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26MAY03STPM05-M051: NO (May 03, 2026)
- KXBUNDESLIGASPREAD-26MAY03BMGBVB-BVB2: NO (May 03, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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