# Lecce at Pisa: Spreads PIS vs LEC (May 1) Updated: April 28, 2026 Category: Sports Tags: Soccer HTML: /markets/sports/soccer/lecce-at-pisa-spreads/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Pisa to win by over 2.5 goals, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Coda and Lucca's definitive fitness status is currently unavailable.** - Lecce aims for direct promotion with just two matches remaining. - Asian Handicap line movement details for the match are unavailable. - Official lineups for Pisa and Lecce have not yet been released. - A specific referee ID (2083565) has been identified for the match. - The **market** price saw an 8.0 percentage point spike on April 26. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** Both **model** and **market** show **0%** **probability**, with crucial player fitness and official lineups unconfirmed. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Pisa wins by over 2.5 goals | 0.0% | 0.0% | The provided background research indicates a lack of confirmable fitness status for key players within 24 hours of kickoff, offering no specific evidence to challenge the market's debiased price of 0.0% for Pisa winning by over 2.5 goals. | | Pisa wins by over 1.5 goals | 0.0% | 0.0% | The research found no confirmed fitness status for key players Coda (Lecce) or Lucca (Pisa) for the future match on May 1st, 2026, therefore providing no evidence to shift the debiased probability of 0.0% for Pisa to win by over 1.5 goals. | | Lecce wins by over 1.5 goals | 0.0% | 0.0% | The absence of confirmed key player fitness status for Lecce and Pisa, combined with the unavailability of specific market line movement data for a future match, provides no basis to shift from the 0.0% debiased anchor, suggesting the market accurately reflects a complete lack of actionable information. | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Pisa wins by over 2.5 goals | 0.0% | 0.0% | | Pisa wins by over 1.5 goals | 0.0% | 0.0% | | Lecce wins by over 1.5 goals | 0.0% | 0.0% | | Lecce wins by over 2.5 goals | 0.0% | 0.0% | - Expiration: May 15, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics Based on a technical analysis of the prediction market for the Lecce at Pisa soccer match spread, the price action has been extremely stable and inactive. The market opened with a 2.0% probability for a "YES" outcome and is currently priced at the same level. The overall trend is entirely sideways, with price fluctuations contained within a very narrow band of 1.0% to 3.0%. These price points appear to function as a floor and ceiling, respectively, with 2.0% acting as the central pivot. There have been no significant price spikes, drops, or any discernible momentum in either direction throughout the market's history. The most critical factor in this market's chart is the complete lack of trading volume. With a total of zero contracts traded, the price chart does not reflect any genuine market activity or participant conviction. The price points shown are likely bids and asks from an automated market maker rather than the result of transactions between traders. Consequently, the minor price oscillations are not attributable to any news, developments, or shifts in trader sentiment because no trading has actually occurred. The absence of volume suggests a total lack of market interest or participation. Due to the zero-volume environment, the chart offers no real insight into market sentiment. The price has not been established by a consensus of traders but rather by a static or programmatic baseline. While support and resistance levels can be identified at 1.0% and 3.0%, they have not been tested or validated by any trading pressure. The market's price history simply indicates a lack of engagement, making it impossible to gauge the crowd's expectation for this specific match outcome. ## Significant Price Movements #### 📈 April 26, 2026: 8.0pp spike Price increased from 2.0% to 10.0% **Outcome:** Lecce wins by over 1.5 goals **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to YES if Lecce wins by more than 1.5 goals against Pisa in the Serie A soccer game scheduled for May 1, 2026. Conversely, it resolves to NO if Lecce wins by 1.5 goals or less, draws, or loses. The outcome is based on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties, and is verified from Fox Sports and ESPN. The market closes after the outcome occurs, or by May 15, 2026, 2:45pm EDT. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Lecce wins by over 1.5 goals | 10% | 19% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | Lecce wins by over 2.5 goals | 2% | 13% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | Pisa wins by over 1.5 goals | 6% | 15% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | Pisa wins by over 2.5 goals | 2% | 13% | 0% | $0 | $0 | ## What is the Confirmed Fitness Status for Coda and Lucca? Massimo Coda Fitness Status | Not definitively determined within 24 hours of May 1, 2026 kickoff [[^]](https://www.telefootball.net/IT/Pisa-Lecce-2026-05-01-652404.html) | Lorenzo Lucca Fitness Status | Not definitively determined within 24 hours of May 1, 2026 kickoff [[^]](https://www.telefootball.net/IT/Pisa-Lecce-2026-05-01-652404.html) | Official Pre-Match Updates | No official team announcements within 24 hours of May 1, 2026 kickoff [[^]](https://www.telefootball.net/IT/Pisa-Lecce-2026-05-01-652404.html) | **No definitive fitness status for Coda or Lucca was found** No definitive fitness status for Coda or Lucca was found. The provided web research did not contain official team announcements or final training session reports detailing the injury and fitness status of Lecce's top scorer Massimo Coda or Pisa's key forward Lorenzo Lucca. This applies to the period within 24 hours of the May 1st, 2026 kickoff [[^]](https://www.telefootball.net/IT/Pisa-Lecce-2026-05-01-652404.html). Available sources lacked specific pre-match fitness updates. Although Transfermarkt [[^]](https://www.transfermarkt.us/us-lecce/sperrenundverletzungen/verein/1005) provides general injury and suspension information for US Lecce, and the Pisa Sporting Club official website [[^]](https://www.pisasportingclub.com/) typically offers news, neither dynamically presented pre-match fitness updates for May 1st, 2026. Moreover, no historical reports aligning with the "within 24 hours of kickoff" criterion for this specific match were available [[^]](https://www.telefootball.net/IT/Pisa-Lecce-2026-05-01-652404.html). The remaining sources were unrelated to these players, teams, or the specified match date [[^]](https://www.calciolecce.it/2026/04/17/il-lecce-a-pisa-il-1-maggio-il-programma-della-trentacinquesima-giornata-di-serie-a/), meaning no confirmable status for Coda or Lucca could be established under the strict parameters of the request. ## What Specific Asian Handicap Line Movement Data Is Unavailable? Asian Handicap Line Movement Data | Not available (Web Research Results) [[^]](https://www.oddssafari.com/matches/soccer/italy/serie-a/pisa-vs-lecce/2218826) | Crossing +/- 1.0 Integer | Not possible to determine (Web Research Results) [[^]](https://www.oddssafari.com/matches/soccer/italy/serie-a/pisa-vs-lecce/2218826) | Juice/Price Changes on Spreads | Not possible to quantify (Web Research Results) [[^]](https://www.oddssafari.com/matches/soccer/italy/serie-a/pisa-vs-lecce/2218826) | **Specific details on Asian Handicap line movement for the match were unavailable** Specific details on Asian Handicap line movement for the match were unavailable. The conducted research did not yield specific information regarding the Asian Handicap betting line movement for the Lecce at Pisa match on Pinnacle Sports since its opening. Consequently, it was not possible to determine if the line moved across the key integer of +/- 1.0 or to quantify the associated 'juice' or price changes on the -1.5 and +1.5 goal spreads. The 'Web Research Results' section was found to be empty, indicating no specific data points or facts related to Pinnacle's historical Asian Handicap line movements were retrieved. Available sources did not provide the required historical **market** data. While several listed sources, such as OddsSafari [[^]](https://www.oddssafari.com/matches/soccer/italy/serie-a/pisa-vs-lecce/2218826), OddsShark [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/soccer/ita-serie-a/pisa-us-lecce-odds-may-3-2026-2453369), RotoWire [[^]](https://www.rotowire.com/betting/soccer/game/pisa-vs-lecce-odds-2026-05-01-2558854), Telefootball.net [[^]](https://www.telefootball.net/GB/Pisa-Lecce-2026-05-01-652404.html), and Odds1x2 [[^]](https://www.odds1x2.com/football/italy-serie-a/odds/pisa-vs-lecce/), are odds comparison websites, and Source [[^]](https://play-pinnacle.org/betting/) is the official Pinnacle Sportsbook, they did not offer the detailed historical opening and closing line data or the specific price fluctuations for Asian Handicap markets as requested. Therefore, without specific data from the conducted web research, it is impossible to provide an analysis of how the Asian Handicap line moved for this match on Pinnacle Sports. ## What are Lecce's and Pisa's motivations for the May 2026 match? Lecce's Primary Goal | Direct Serie A promotion (May 1, 2026 match) [[^]](https://www.trnews.it/2026/04/28/lecce-due-obiettivi-a-pisa-allungo-e-pressione/) | Lecce's Alternative Goal | Consolidate second-place standing in Serie B [[^]](https://www.trnews.it/2026/04/28/lecce-due-obiettivi-a-pisa-allungo-e-pressione/) | Pisa's Motivations | Not detailed in available sources for promotion/playoff spots [[^]](https://www.telefootball.net/GB/Pisa-Lecce-2026-05-01-652404.html) | **Lecce enters the May 1, 2026, match against Pisa with clear promotion objectives** Lecce enters the May 1, 2026, match against Pisa with clear promotion objectives. With two match days remaining in Serie B, Lecce aims to secure direct advancement to Serie A [[^]](https://www.trnews.it/2026/04/28/lecce-due-obiettivi-a-pisa-allungo-e-pressione/). A victory in this fixture, coupled with favorable outcomes from competing teams, could potentially secure their direct promotion as early as Friday night, indicating a strong incentive for a decisive win. Furthermore, achieving a draw would still benefit Lecce by allowing them to strengthen their second-place position in the Serie B table, thereby increasing pressure on third-placed Cremonese [[^]](https://www.trnews.it/2026/04/28/lecce-due-obiettivi-a-pisa-allungo-e-pressione/). Pisa's specific motivations are not available within the provided research. The available sources do not offer details concerning Pisa's current standing in the 2025-26 Serie B league, nor do they specify their objectives regarding promotion, playoff contention, or relegation zones [[^]](https://www.telefootball.net/GB/Pisa-Lecce-2026-05-01-652404.html). Consequently, based exclusively on the information at hand, it is not possible to determine whether Pisa requires a draw or a decisive win for a promotion or playoff spot, or what factors might influence their offensive strategy in the match against Lecce. ## What are the referee stats for Lecce vs. Pisa May 2026 match? Center Referee Name | Not explicitly provided in research [[^]](https://polymarket.com/sports/sea/sea-pis-lec-2026-05-01). | Referee ID (Season 2025-2026) | 2083565 (StatsHub) [[^]](https://scores.sir.sportradar.com/en/sport/1/tournament/53/referee?refereeId=2083565&seasonId=130973) | Referee Disciplinary Statistics | Data on yellow cards, red cards, and penalties indicated as available via StatsHub, not extracted [[^]](https://scores.sir.sportradar.com/en/sport/1/tournament/53/referee?refereeId=2083565&seasonId=130973). | **The specific center referee for the Lecce at Pisa match on May 1, 2026, is not explicitly named** The specific center referee for the Lecce at Pisa match on May 1, 2026, is not explicitly named. However, a specific referee ID, 2083565, has been identified for the relevant 2025-2026 Serie B season (ID 130973). Detailed statistics for this referee, including yellow cards, red cards, and penalties awarded per game, are indicated to be available through a dedicated source, StatsHub [[^]](https://scores.sir.sportradar.com/en/sport/1/tournament/53/referee?refereeId=2083565&seasonId=130973). A direct comparison of this referee's performance against league-average statistics for the 2025-2026 Serie B season cannot be made at this time. While sources for league-average data on discipline and penalties exist (FootyStats [[^]](https://footystats.org/italy/serie-b/card-stats), ESPN [[^]](https://www.espn.com/soccer/stats/_/league/ITA.2/view/discipline/sort/yellowCards), Transfermarkt [[^]](https://www.transfermarkt.com/serie-b/elfmeterstatistiken/wettbewerb/IT2/saison_id/2025)), the specific numerical data was not included in the provided research, making a direct comparison impossible without accessing these external links [[^]](https://scores.sir.sportradar.com/en/sport/1/tournament/53/referee?refereeId=2083565&seasonId=130973). Additionally, information regarding the referee's history of officiating high-stakes matches involving either Pisa or Lecce is not available in the provided web research. General statistical hubs typically offer overall records but do not categorize matches by "high stakes" or compile team-specific officiating histories in the manner requested. ## Can Pisa vs. Lecce 2026 Lineups Be Compared? Match Date/Time | May 1, 2026, 20:45 local time (Pisa vs. Lecce) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/sports/sea/sea-pis-lec-2026-05-01) | Official Lineups Release | 19:45 on May 1, 2026 (one hour before kickoff) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/sports/sea/sea-pis-lec-2026-05-01) | Projected Lineups Date | May 3, 2026 (Tuttosport [[^]](https://next.tuttosport.com/formazione/calcio/serie-a/2026/05/03-2558854/pisa-lecce), Corriere dello Sport [[^]](http://corrieredellosport.it/formazione/calcio/serie-a/2026/05/03-2558854/pisa-lecce)) | **Official lineups for Pisa vs** Official lineups for Pisa vs. Lecce on May 1, 2026, are absent. The research objective was to compare official starting lineups, typically released one hour before kickoff, against projected lineups for the Pisa vs. Lecce match scheduled for May 1, 2026, at 20:45 local time [[^]](https://polymarket.com/sports/sea/sea-pis-lec-2026-05-01). However, the available research did not contain the official starting lineups for this specific date, making a direct comparison impossible. Projected lineups from major media sources showed date discrepancies. Although some projected lineups ("probabili formazioni") were found from major Italian sports media, a significant inconsistency in dates was observed. Projected lineups from Tuttosport [[^]](https://next.tuttosport.com/formazione/calcio/serie-a/2026/05/03-2558854/pisa-lecce) and Corriere dello Sport [[^]](http://corrieredellosport.it/formazione/calcio/serie-a/2026/05/03-2558854/pisa-lecce) were explicitly linked to a match on May 3, 2026, rather than the May 1, 2026, date of the Pisa vs. Lecce fixture. Furthermore, general projected lineups for Pisa from Gazzetta dello Sport [[^]](https://www.gazzetta.it/calcio/squadre/pisa/probabili-formazioni/) lacked clear applicability to the May 1st match given these discrepancies. A direct comparison of official and projected lineups is not feasible. Due to the complete absence of official starting lineups for May 1, 2026, and the contradictory dates within the available projected lineups, a direct comparison between official and projected team selections cannot be conducted. This prevents any determination of surprise inclusions or omissions, particularly in key defensive midfield or attacking winger positions, for either team for the requested match date. ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** May 15, 2026 - **Closes:** May 15, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [CB Malaga vs Bilbao Basket](/markets/sports/basketball/cb-malaga-vs-bilbao-basket/) - [APF Division de Honor Apertura Champion](/markets/sports/soccer/apf-division-de-honor-apertura-champion/) - [Olimpia vs Luqueno](/markets/sports/soccer/olimpia-vs-luqueno/) - [Trinidense vs CD Recoleta](/markets/sports/soccer/trinidense-vs-cd-recoleta/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXSERIEASPREAD-26APR24NAPCRE-NAP2: YES (Apr 24, 2026) - KXSERIEASPREAD-26APR24NAPCRE-NAP1: YES (Apr 24, 2026) - KXSERIEASPREAD-26APR24NAPCRE-CRE2: NO (Apr 24, 2026) - KXSERIEASPREAD-26APR24NAPCRE-CRE1: NO (Apr 24, 2026) - KXSERIEASPREAD-26APR25PARPIS-PIS2: NO (Apr 25, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.