# NASCAR NASCAR All-Star Race: Fastest Lap

NASCAR NASCAR All-Star Race

Updated: May 14, 2026

Category: Sports

Tags: Motorsport

HTML: /markets/sports/motorsport/nascar-nascar-all-star-race-fastest-lap/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** overwhelmingly agree that Tyler Reddick is most likely to have the fastest lap in the NASCAR All-Star Race, with only minor residual uncertainty.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Denny Hamlin holds the fastest qualifying lap record at Dover.** - Hamlin also earned the 'Xfinity Fastest Lap' award in July 2025.
- Kyle Larson closely trailed Hamlin's track record in October 2019.
- Larson's team, Hendrick Motorsports, won 21 Cup Series races at Dover.
- The 2026 format may incentivize drivers to pursue an early fastest lap.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** With **0%** **model** and **market** probabilities, Denny Hamlin holds Dover's fastest qualifying lap record.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Connor Zilisch | 1.0% | 1.1% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Noah Gragson | 1.0% | 1.1% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Cole Custer | 1.0% | 1.1% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Connor Zilisch | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| Noah Gragson | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| Cole Custer | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| Cody Ware | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| Ty Dillon | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| Todd Gilliland | 1.0% | 1.1% |
| Tyler Reddick | 98.0% | 92.3% |
| Ryan Preece | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| William Byron | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bubba Wallace | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Dillon | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Austin Cindric | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alex Bowman | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Erik Jones | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Denny Hamlin | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carson Hocevar | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Christopher Bell | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Blaney | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zane Smith | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Larson | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John H. Nemechek | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brad Keselowski | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ross Chastain | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Buescher | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Josh Berry | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chase Elliott | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chase Briscoe | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ricky Stenhouse | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Riley Herbst | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joey Logano | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Suárez | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael McDowell | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| AJ Allmendinger | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ty Gibbs | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Busch | 0.0% | 0.0% |

- Expiration: June 14, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market's price action has been minimal and defined by a single adjustment on zero volume. The contract opened with a YES probability of 2.0% and held that price briefly before dropping to 0.0% on May 12. It has remained static at 0.0% since that time. The overall trend is flat, characterized by a complete lack of activity following the initial price drop. There have been no other significant price movements, spikes, or recoveries.

The most critical factor in this market is the total trading volume of zero contracts. This indicates that the price drop from 2.0% to 0.0% was not caused by trader activity or reaction to news, but rather by an adjustment from the market's creator. While the provided context details the newly revealed race format, including a multi-segment structure and a Pit Crew Challenge for qualifying, the absence of trading volume means this information did not trigger a sell-off. Instead, the price change reflects a repricing in a market that has failed to attract any participation.

The lack of any trading activity suggests there is no market conviction or sentiment. The price of 0.0% effectively serves as a support level, but without trading, concepts like support and resistance are purely theoretical. The chart suggests that traders have shown no interest in this proposition at any price, leading to an inactive market with a price that reflects a near-zero perceived probability of the "YES" outcome.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Tyler Reddick records the fastest valid lap time in the main race of the NASCAR Cup Series 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The event begins on May 17, 2026, with the market closing after the outcome or by June 14, 2026, at 7:00 PM EDT. Resolution is based solely on final official results posted by NASCAR, not provisional ones, with payouts projected 30 minutes after market close.

## Market Discussion

Kyle Larson, a two-time All-Star Race winner and holder of a Dover Motor Speedway track record from October 6, 2019, is considered a top contender for the fastest lap, alongside Chase Elliott [[^]](https://heavy.com/sports/nascar/nascar-odds-favorites-win-all-star-race/). Discussion around the 2026 All-Star Race at Dover Motor Speedway centers on factors like the application of resin, which could impact grip and potential lap times, and the unavailability of planned aero devices intended to promote multi-groove racing [[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/NASCAR/comments/1t9p6xr/is_it_just_me_or_does_the_all_star_at_dover_feel/).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| AJ Allmendinger | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Alex Bowman | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Austin Cindric | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Austin Dillon | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Brad Keselowski | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Bubba Wallace | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Carson Hocevar | 1% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Christopher Bell | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Chase Briscoe | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Chris Buescher | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Chase Elliott | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Cole Custer | 0% | 6% | 1% | $628 | $628 |
| Cody Ware | 0% | 6% | 1% | $628 | $628 |
| Connor Zilisch | 0% | 6% | 1% | $628 | $628 |
| Daniel Suárez | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Denny Hamlin | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Erik Jones | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Josh Berry | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Joey Logano | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| John H. Nemechek | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Kyle Busch | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Kyle Larson | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Michael McDowell | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Noah Gragson | 0% | 6% | 1% | $628 | $628 |
| Riley Herbst | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Ricky Stenhouse | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Ross Chastain | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Ryan Blaney | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Ryan Preece | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | 0% | 6% | 1% | $628 | $628 |
| Todd Gilliland | 0% | 97% | 1% | $627 | $627 |
| Ty Dillon | 0% | 6% | 1% | $628 | $628 |
| Ty Gibbs | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Tyler Reddick | 0% | 98% | 98% | $1.01 | $1.01 |
| William Byron | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Zane Smith | 0% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |

## What evidence from Denny Hamlin's past performances at Dover Motor Speedway supports his position as a favorite to set the 2026 All-Star Race's fastest lap?

2019 Dover Pole Speed | 166.984 mph (21.559 seconds) [[^]](https://motorsportstribune.com/denny-hamlin-captures-pole-for-sundays-dover-nascar-race/) |
2015 Dover Pole Speed | 160.121 mph (22.483 seconds) [[^]](https://www.autoweek.com/racing/nascar/a1870486/nascar-cup-qualifying-results-dover-denny-hamlin-toyota-pole/) |
2015 Dover Practice Speed | 156.331 mph (23.028 seconds) [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nascar/denny-hamlin-fastest-in-first-saturday-cup-practice-at-dover) |

**Denny Hamlin consistently demonstrates strong one-lap speed at Dover Motor Speedway**

Denny Hamlin consistently demonstrates strong one-lap speed at Dover Motor Speedway. He secured a track-record pole position during the 2019 Dover Cup Series qualifying, completing a lap at 166.984 mph (21.559 seconds) [[^]](https://motorsportstribune.com/denny-hamlin-captures-pole-for-sundays-dover-nascar-race/). This impressive time was more than a second faster than the prior qualifying record, highlighting his capacity to achieve the fastest lap [[^]](https://motorsportstribune.com/denny-hamlin-captures-pole-for-sundays-dover-nascar-race/).

Hamlin's strong performances include multiple poles and practice session leadership. He also posted a pole-winning lap of 160.121 mph (22.483 seconds) at Dover in 2015, narrowly surpassing Martin Truex Jr. by 0.056 seconds [[^]](https://www.autoweek.com/racing/nascar/a1870486/nascar-cup-qualifying-results-dover-denny-hamlin-toyota-pole/). At that point, he had claimed poles in six consecutive attempts at Dover since 2012 [[^]](https://www.autoweek.com/racing/nascar/a1870486/nascar-cup-qualifying-results-dover-denny-hamlin-toyota-pole/). Furthermore, Hamlin recorded the fastest lap during a Saturday Cup practice at Dover on May 30, 2015, reaching 156.331 miles per hour (23.028 seconds) [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nascar/denny-hamlin-fastest-in-first-saturday-cup-practice-at-dover). These verified one-lap speeds on the concrete 1-mile circuit directly exemplify the single best lap performance essential for fastest-lap outcomes [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnascarfastlap/nascar-fastest-lap/kxnascarfastlap-nasa26).

## How do top contenders Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson compare on key performance indicators for raw speed, such as qualifying results and fastest laps, at Dover Motor Speedway?

Hamlin's Dover Qualifying Record | 166.984 mph (October 2019) [[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/media/)[[^]](https://www.autoweek.com/racing/nascar/a2151711/nascar-cup-dover-qualifying-results-denny-hamlin-captures-pole/) |
Larson's 2019 Qualifying Gap to Hamlin | 0.003 seconds behind Hamlin (October 2019) [[^]](https://www.autoweek.com/racing/nascar/a2151711/nascar-cup-dover-qualifying-results-denny-hamlin-captures-pole/) |
2026 All-Star Race Starting Positions | Larson 5th, Hamlin 35th [[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2026/05/13/qualifying-orders-for-2026-dover-all-star-race-weekend/) |

**Denny Hamlin consistently demonstrates record-breaking speed in qualifying and races at Dover**

Denny Hamlin consistently demonstrates record-breaking speed in qualifying and races at Dover. He holds the NASCAR Cup Series fastest qualifying lap record at Dover Motor Speedway, achieved in October 2019 with a speed of 166.984 mph (21.559 seconds) [[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/media/)[[^]](https://www.autoweek.com/racing/nascar/a2151711/nascar-cup-dover-qualifying-results-denny-hamlin-captures-pole/). Hamlin has secured pole position at Dover four times, his highest number of poles at any one-mile oval [[^]](https://www.autoweek.com/racing/nascar/a1870486/nascar-cup-qualifying-results-dover-denny-hamlin-toyota-pole/)[[^]](https://www.autoweek.com/racing/nascar/a2151711/nascar-cup-dover-qualifying-results-denny-hamlin-captures-pole/). In terms of in-race speed, Hamlin earned the "Xfinity Fastest Lap" award in the Cup Series race at Dover in July 2025, clocking a time of 23.088 seconds [[^]](https://www.racingamerica.com/news/nascar/xfinity-fastest-lap-denny-hamlin-races-to-award-on-final-lap-at-dover).

Kyle Larson shows remarkable raw speed and consistent performance at Dover. In October 2019, when Hamlin set the track qualifying record, Larson qualified a mere 0.003 seconds behind him [[^]](https://www.autoweek.com/racing/nascar/a2151711/nascar-cup-dover-qualifying-results-denny-hamlin-captures-pole/). Larson was the fastest in the final Cup practice session at Dover in October 2018 and has consistently posted strong in-race speeds, including a best lap of 23.24 seconds in a recent race [[^]](https://www.nascar.com/live-results/nascar-cup-series/autotrader-echopark-automotive-400/). He considers Dover "probably my best track on paper," citing consistent strong finishes and an average finish of 6.9 in 14 starts as of April 2023 [[^]](https://thepodiumfinish.net/kyle-larson-dover-is-probably-my-best-track-on-paper/). For the upcoming 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race at Dover, Larson is slated to start 5th, a significantly better qualifying position compared to Hamlin's 35th [[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2026/05/13/qualifying-orders-for-2026-dover-all-star-race-weekend/).

## How might the new 2026 race format, with its shorter initial segments, incentivize drivers and teams to pursue an early fastest lap at Dover Motor Speedway?

Total Race Laps | 350 laps (2026 NASCAR All-Star Race) [[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/media/news/nascar-all-star-race-format-dover-motor-speedway-announced.html)[[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2026/05/13/format-for-2026-nascar-all-star-race-revealed/)[[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/events/nascar-all-star-race/fan-info/) |
First Segment Length | 75 laps [[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/media/news/nascar-all-star-race-format-dover-motor-speedway-announced.html)[[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2026/05/13/format-for-2026-nascar-all-star-race-revealed/)[[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/events/nascar-all-star-race/fan-info/) |
Final Segment Length | 200 laps [[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/media/news/nascar-all-star-race-format-dover-motor-speedway-announced.html)[[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2026/05/13/format-for-2026-nascar-all-star-race-revealed/)[[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/events/nascar-all-star-race/fan-info/) |

**The new 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race format incentivizes early fastest laps**

The new 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race format incentivizes early fastest laps.
The 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race at Dover Motor Speedway features a new format that significantly incentivizes drivers and teams to pursue an early fastest lap. The unique structure, comprising shorter initial segments, directly impacts subsequent starting positions [[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/media/news/nascar-all-star-race-format-dover-motor-speedway-announced.html)[[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2026/05/13/format-for-2026-nascar-all-star-race-revealed/)[[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/events/nascar-all-star-race/fan-info/). This design encourages teams to establish an early race pace, recognizing the fastest lap as an observable event outcome that can focus their attention on achieving outright speed early in the competition [[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/media/news/nascar-all-star-race-format-dover-motor-speedway-announced.html)[[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2026/05/13/format-for-2026-nascar-all-star-race-revealed/)[[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/events/nascar-all-star-race/fan-info/)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnascarfastlap/nascar-fastest-lap/kxnascarfastlap-nasa26).

The race features specific segments determining future starting positions.
The 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race is scheduled for a total of 350 laps, divided into three distinct segments: 75 laps, followed by another 75 laps, and concluding with a 200-lap final segment [[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/media/news/nascar-all-star-race-format-dover-motor-speedway-announced.html)[[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2026/05/13/format-for-2026-nascar-all-star-race-revealed/)[[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/events/nascar-all-star-race/fan-info/). The starting lineup for Segment 2 is determined by inverting the top 26 finishers from Segment 1. Similarly, the starting order for the final 200-lap segment for the 26-car field is set using the combined results from both Segment 1 and Segment 2 [[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/media/news/nascar-all-star-race-format-dover-motor-speedway-announced.html)[[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2026/05/13/format-for-2026-nascar-all-star-race-revealed/)[[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/events/nascar-all-star-race/fan-info/). This framework strongly motivates teams to establish an early race pace, as an early fastest-lap attempt is consistent with optimizing outcomes in the crucial initial segments. The existence of a dedicated **market** for "NASCAR NASCAR All-Star Race: Fastest Lap" further highlights the fastest lap as a tradable and observable event, directing team and driver focus toward early speed [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnascarfastlap/nascar-fastest-lap/kxnascarfastlap-nasa26).

## What public data sources track advanced NASCAR metrics like 'fastest laps' and 'green flag speed' for individual drivers at specific tracks like Dover Motor Speedway?

Advanced Metrics Tracking | Fastest laps and green flag speed tracked by multiple public sources and APIs (NASCAR.com, ifantasyrace.com, DriverAverages.com, Racing-Reference.info, Sportradar [[^]](https://developer.sportradar.com/racing/reference/nascar-driver-statistics)) |
Dover Green Flag Speed Data | Available from 2022-2025 for O'Reilly Series Dover (ifantasyrace.com [[^]](https://ifantasyrace.com/2026/05/11/oreilly-series-dover-2025-nascar-green-flag-speeds/)[[^]](https://ifantasyrace.com/fantasy-nascar-green-flag-average-speed-index/)) |
Driver Statistics Database | Racing-Reference.info provides comprehensive driver stats including NumFastestLaps and DriverRating [[^]](https://www.racing-reference.info/active-nascar-driver-stats/)[[^]](https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/mexwell/nascar-data-description/data) |

**Public data sources widely track advanced NASCAR driver metrics**

Public data sources widely track advanced NASCAR driver metrics. Metrics like 'fastest laps' and 'green flag speed' for individual drivers at specific tracks such as Dover Motor Speedway are readily available through several platforms. Key public resources include NASCAR.com, ifantasyrace.com, DriverAverages.com, and Racing-Reference.info. Additionally, APIs like Sportradar confirm the availability of such detailed data, offering NASCAR Driver Statistics [[^]](https://developer.sportradar.com/racing/reference/nascar-driver-statistics).

Official and fan sites provide detailed lap and speed data. NASCAR.com, an official source, offers "Lap Time Table" results, which include fastest lap information for various races [[^]](https://www.nascar.com/monster-energy-nascar-cup-series/dover-international-speedway/laptimetable?raceID=5605). This site also publishes "Stats advance" articles that analyze driver performance using metrics like "Fastest Laps Run" and "Average Green Flag Speed" specifically for races and tracks, including Dover Motor Speedway [[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2014/05/27/stats-advance-analyzing-the-dover-cup-race/). Similarly, ifantasyrace.com lists "O'Reilly Series Dover 2025 NASCAR Green Flag Speeds" [[^]](https://ifantasyrace.com/2026/05/11/oreilly-series-dover-2025-nascar-green-flag-speeds/), provides a "Fantasy NASCAR Green Flag Average Speed Index" covering Dover data from 2022 to 2025 [[^]](https://ifantasyrace.com/fantasy-nascar-green-flag-average-speed-index/), and offers "Dover Practice Lap By Lap Average Speed Rankings" [[^]](https://ifantasyrace.com/2023/04/29/dover-practice-lap-by-lap-average-speed-rankings/). Predictive markets also track these metrics, as seen with Kalshi, which monitors a "Fastest Lap" prediction for the 2026 NASCAR All-Star Race at Dover Motor Speedway [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnascarfastlap/nascar-fastest-lap/kxnascarfastlap-nasa26)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASCAR_All-Star_Race).

Comprehensive databases offer extensive historical and performance statistics. DriverAverages.com provides extensive driver averages, career win totals, and historical data across Cup, Xfinity, and Truck series, including track-specific performance [[^]](https://www.driveraverages.com/)[[^]](https://www.driveraverages.com/nascar/nascar-tracks_avg.php). Furthermore, Racing-Reference.info is well-known for its detailed NASCAR driver statistics. This platform offers insights into laps, wins, poles, "NumFastestLaps," and a "DriverRating" that incorporates fastest laps and average speed under green flag conditions [[^]](https://www.racing-reference.info/active-nascar-driver-stats/)[[^]](https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/mexwell/nascar-data-description/data).

## How do the technical packages of Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports historically perform in terms of raw speed at high-banked concrete tracks like Dover?

HMS Cup Series Wins at Dover | 21 wins [[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/media/news/drydene-400-bowman-captures-first-dover-victory-hendrick-earns-sweep.html) |
HMS Historic Finish | 1-2-3-4 finish at Dover in 2021 [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASCAR_Cup_Series_at_Dover_Motor_Speedway)[[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/media/news/drydene-400-bowman-captures-first-dover-victory-hendrick-earns-sweep.html) |
Denny Hamlin Dover Wins | 3 Cup Series wins, including back-to-back in 2024 and 2025 [[^]](https://vsin.com/auto-racing/nascar-all-star-race-predictions-top-5-picks-and-best-long-shots/)[[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2026/5/12/2026-cup-series-power-rankings-watkins-glen-to-all-star-race-dover/)[[^]](https://www.the-express.com/sport/motorsport/178059/hendrick-motorsports-jgr-nascar-dover)[[^]](https://speedsport.com/nascar/nascar-cup-series/four-score-hamlin-repeats-at-dover/) |

**Both Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) and Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) have historically demonstrated significant raw speed and strong performance at high-banked concrete tracks such as Dover**

Both Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) and Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) have historically demonstrated significant raw speed and strong performance at high-banked concrete tracks such as Dover. Hendrick Motorsports consistently showcases unparalleled speed and dominance at Dover. The team holds an unparalleled record with 21 NASCAR Cup Series victories, making them the team with the most wins at the track [[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/media/news/drydene-400-bowman-captures-first-dover-victory-hendrick-earns-sweep.html). A notable display of their dominance occurred in 2021, when HMS achieved a historic 1-2-3-4 finish, with Alex Bowman, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, and William Byron securing the top four positions [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASCAR_Cup_Series_at_Dover_Motor_Speedway)[[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/media/news/drydene-400-bowman-captures-first-dover-victory-hendrick-earns-sweep.html). Kyle Larson is a past winner at Dover from 2019 and holds the record for the fastest race at the track, also set in 2019 [[^]](https://www.sportskeeda.com/nascar/2026-all-star-race-odds-predictions-best-bets-nascar-race-dover-motor-speedway)[[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/media/). Alex Bowman also secured a victory at Dover in 2021 [[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/media/news/drydene-400-bowman-captures-first-dover-victory-hendrick-earns-sweep.html), while Chase Elliott led a race-best 238 of 407 laps in a 2025 Dover race [[^]](https://speedsport.com/nascar/nascar-cup-series/four-score-hamlin-repeats-at-dover/).

Joe Gibbs Racing drivers also exhibit formidable speed, particularly Denny Hamlin. Joe Gibbs Racing drivers have also shown formidable competitiveness at Dover. Denny Hamlin of JGR is particularly strong at this track, boasting three Cup Series wins, including back-to-back victories in 2024 and 2025 [[^]](https://vsin.com/auto-racing/nascar-all-star-race-predictions-top-5-picks-and-best-long-shots/)[[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2026/5/12/2026-cup-series-power-rankings-watkins-glen-to-all-star-race-dover/)[[^]](https://www.the-express.com/sport/motorsport/178059/hendrick-motorsports-jgr-nascar-dover)[[^]](https://speedsport.com/nascar/nascar-cup-series/four-score-hamlin-repeats-at-dover/). Hamlin also holds the fastest NASCAR Cup Series qualifying lap record at Dover from 2019 [[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/media/). His consistent performance includes 17 top-10 finishes and leading 885 laps across 35 starts [[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2026/5/12/2026-cup-series-power-rankings-watkins-glen-to-all-star-race-dover/). In 2024 alone, Hamlin secured two poles and led 417 laps, further underscoring JGR's impressive raw speed and pace at Dover [[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2024/12/10/ty-gibbs-2024-cup-series-season-in-review/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The fastest-lap prediction-market catalyst for this event is tied to a dedicated Kalshi prop market labeled
ascar NASCAR All-Star Race: Fastest Lap.** [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnascarfastlap/nascar-fastest-lap/kxnascarfastlap-nasa26). The 2026 All-Star Race itself is scheduled for Sunday, May 17, 2026, at Dover Motor Speedway, with NASCAR describing the **$1M** exhibition and the 350-lap segmented format [[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2026/05/13/format-for-2026-nascar-all-star-race-revealed/)[[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/events/nascar-all-star-race/). This includes an enhanced qualifying session featuring the Pit Crew Challenge [[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2026/05/13/format-for-2026-nascar-all-star-race-revealed/).

**Key in-weekend
positioning
 catalysts for fastest-lap-style outcomes occur on Saturday qualifying, which includes the Pit Crew Challenge at noon per the Dover schedule and helps determine race starting positions [[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/events/nascar-all-star-race/schedule/)[[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2026/05/13/format-for-2026-nascar-all-star-race-revealed/).** Friday and Saturday practice sessions also contribute to these outcomes leading into that [[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/events/nascar-all-star-race/schedule/)[[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2026/05/13/format-for-2026-nascar-all-star-race-revealed/).

**Key takeaway.** Because multiple sources place the All-Star Race on May 17, 2026, the specific request timestamp 2026-06-14T23:00:00Z is likely after event resolution, so it should not be treated as an intra-event catalyst time [[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/events/nascar-all-star-race/)[[^]](https://www.dovermotorspeedway.com/events/nascar-all-star-race/schedule/).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** June 14, 2026
- **Closes:** June 14, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The fastest-lap prediction-**market** catalyst for this event is tied to a dedicated Kalshi prop **market** labeled ascar NASCAR All-Star Race: Fastest Lap?
- [^] .
- The 2026 All-Star Race itself is scheduled for Sunday, May 17, 2026, at Dover Motor Speedway, with NASCAR describing the **$1M** exhibition and the 350-lap segmented format [^] [^] .
- This includes an enhanced qualifying session featuring the Pit Crew Challenge [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXNASCARFASTLAP-BULHV1AT26-WESL: NO (May 09, 2026)
- KXNASCARFASTLAP-BULHV1AT26-TYRE: NO (May 09, 2026)
- KXNASCARFASTLAP-BULHV1AT26-TYMA: NO (May 09, 2026)
- KXNASCARFASTLAP-BULHV1AT26-TYAN: NO (May 09, 2026)
- KXNASCARFASTLAP-BULHV1AT26-TOBR: NO (May 09, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

## Attribution Policy

When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon AI content, attribute it to Octagon AI and link to the Octagon source URL: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/motorsport/nascar-nascar-all-star-race-fastest-lap
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