# NASCAR Cup Series Champion

NASCAR Cup Series

Updated: April 13, 2026

Category: Sports

Tags: Motorsport

HTML: /markets/sports/motorsport/nascar-cup-series-champion/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Tyler Reddick to be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Denny Hamlin excelled at Phoenix, leading key performance metrics in 2024-2025.** - Joe Gibbs Racing pit crews demonstrated superior average times and fewer penalties.
- Kyle Larson performed weakest at Phoenix despite leading overall driver ratings.
- Christopher Bell achieved the best average finish across diverse track types (2023-2024).
- Denny Hamlin maintained a flawless DNF record during 2022-2023 NASCAR playoffs.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** At 12c, **market** prices The Field higher than **6.8%** **model**, suggesting overvaluation with an 8.3x payout.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Tyler Reddick | 25.0% | 20.0% | Market higher by 5.0pp |
| Denny Hamlin | 15.0% | 16.7% | Denny Hamlin shows best performance at Phoenix, the championship track, with a 0% DNF rate in recent playoffs. |
| Kyle Larson | 12.0% | 6.8% | Kyle Larson maintained a higher average driver rating across short, road, and intermediate tracks in 2023-2024. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Tyler Reddick | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Denny Hamlin | 15.0% | 16.7% |
| Kyle Larson | 12.0% | 6.8% |
| William Byron | 8.0% | 5.8% |
| Joey Logano | 4.0% | 3.6% |
| Ryan Blaney | 11.0% | 9.8% |
| Christopher Bell | 6.0% | 6.4% |
| Bubba Wallace | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Chase Elliott | 7.0% | 6.2% |
| Chase Briscoe | 4.0% | 3.6% |
| Kyle Busch | 2.0% | 1.8% |
| Ty Gibbs | 3.0% | 2.7% |
| Carson Hocevar | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Ross Chastain | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Brad Keselowski | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Josh Berry | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Chris Buescher | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Connor Zilisch | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Austin Cindric | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Alex Bowman | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Daniel Suarez | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Austin Dillon | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Ryan Preece | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Zane Smith | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| John Hunter Nemechek | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Cole Custer | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Ty Dillon | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Erik Jones | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Cody Ware | 1.0% | 0.9% |

- Expiration: November 15, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Based on the chart data, this market exhibits a clear sideways or range-bound trend. The price for the "NASCAR Cup Series Champion" has fluctuated within a relatively tight 5-point channel, between a low of 9.0% and a high of 14.0%. The market opened at 12.0% and is currently priced at the same level, reinforcing the lack of a definitive long-term directional bias. Key price levels have been established, with 9.0% acting as a support floor that the market has not broken below, and 14.0% serving as a resistance ceiling. The early price movement from 12.0% to 14.0% and back down represents the most significant volatility, but without additional context or news, the specific cause for this initial fluctuation cannot be determined from the price action alone.

The total volume of 12,182 contracts traded indicates moderate activity over the life of the market. However, the sample data points provided show zero volume, which suggests that price changes can occur on very light trading or that trading activity is inconsistent. Consistent trading volume would be needed to confirm a breakout from the established 9.0% to 14.0% range. Overall, the market sentiment appears to be stable but uncertain. The price consistently returning to the 12.0% midpoint and failing to break key support or resistance levels suggests that traders have not yet reached a strong consensus. The market seems to be in a holding pattern, awaiting a significant catalyst to establish a clear directional trend.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Tyler Reddick wins the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series, and "No" otherwise, with outcomes verified by sources such as ESPN, Fox Sports, and NASCAR.com. The market opened on February 4, 2026, at 10:00 AM EST and will close once a winner is declared, or by November 15, 2026, at 10:00 AM EST. Trading is prohibited for current/former league staff, players, coaches, team/league owners, and their immediate family members.

## Market Discussion

Traders are actively discussing their picks for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Champion, with Tyler Reddick and Denny Hamlin frequently mentioned as strong contenders, alongside a user backing Ryan Blaney. A key point of discussion revolves around distinguishing between a driver winning an individual race and securing the overall series championship. There isn't a clear consensus, but individual traders are confidently backing their preferred drivers to "take the Series."

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Alex Bowman | 0% | 1% | 1% | $22,256 | $21,756 |
| Austin Cindric | 0% | 1% | 1% | $29,099 | $29,099 |
| Austin Dillon | 0% | 1% | 1% | $14,137 | $14,137 |
| Brad Keselowski | 0% | 1% | 1% | $46,959 | $40,701 |
| Bubba Wallace | 1% | 3% | 1% | $95,257 | $63,407 |
| Christopher Bell | 6% | 8% | 6% | $95,788 | $73,634 |
| Chase Briscoe | 2% | 4% | 4% | $83,007 | $62,625 |
| Chris Buescher | 0% | 1% | 1% | $34,369 | $30,411 |
| Cole Custer | 0% | 1% | 1% | $3,451 | $3,451 |
| Chase Elliott | 4% | 7% | 7% | $90,158 | $67,379 |
| Carson Hocevar | 0% | 1% | 1% | $63,740 | $58,016 |
| Cody Ware | 0% | 1% | 1% | $1,495 | $1,495 |
| Connor Zilisch | 0% | 1% | 1% | $30,644 | $26,794 |
| Denny Hamlin | 11% | 15% | 15% | $145,975 | $86,424 |
| Daniel Suarez | 0% | 1% | 1% | $14,859 | $14,859 |
| Erik Jones | 0% | 1% | 1% | $3,031 | $3,031 |
| Josh Berry | 0% | 1% | 1% | $35,843 | $35,376 |
| Joey Logano | 1% | 4% | 4% | $107,287 | $71,966 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | 0% | 1% | 1% | $5,397 | $5,397 |
| Kyle Busch | 0% | 2% | 2% | $76,416 | $63,368 |
| Kyle Larson | 10% | 11% | 12% | $143,652 | $87,554 |
| Ryan Blaney | 9% | 10% | 11% | $98,140 | $73,337 |
| Ross Chastain | 0% | 1% | 1% | $52,321 | $40,515 |
| Ryan Preece | 0% | 1% | 1% | $12,233 | $12,233 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | 0% | 1% | 1% | $11,564 | $11,564 |
| Ty Dillon | 0% | 1% | 1% | $3,374 | $3,374 |
| Ty Gibbs | 1% | 3% | 3% | $66,834 | $54,125 |
| Tyler Reddick | 25% | 26% | 25% | $190,960 | $125,949 |
| William Byron | 6% | 8% | 8% | $107,498 | $81,036 |
| Zane Smith | 0% | 1% | 1% | $7,678 | $7,678 |

## Which NASCAR Drivers Excel on Short, Road, and Intermediate Tracks (2023-2024)?

Highest Average Driver Rating | 103.8 (Kyle Larson) [[^]](https://www.lapraptor.com/drivers/?max_date=2025-08-09&minimum_starts=1&report=all_advanced&season=2017&season=2018&season=2019&season=2020&season=2021&season=2022&season=2023&season=2024&season=2025&series=1&track_type=road_course) |
Best Average Finish | 9.8 (Christopher Bell) [[^]](https://www.lapraptor.com/drivers/?max_date=2025-08-09&minimum_starts=1&report=all_advanced&season=2017&season=2018&season=2019&season=2020&season=2021&season=2022&season=2023&season=2024&season=2025&series=1&track_type=road_course) |
Driver Rating Maximum Score | 150 (perfect score) [[^]](https://www.lapraptor.com/drivers/?max_date=2025-08-09&minimum_starts=1&report=all_advanced&season=2017&season=2018&season=2019&season=2020&season=2021&season=2022&season=2023&season=2024&season=2025&series=1&track_type=road_course) |

**Kyle Larson achieved the top driver rating across key track types**

Kyle Larson achieved the top driver rating across key track types. Analysis of the 2023-2024 NASCAR Cup Series seasons focused on driver performance across short tracks, road courses, and intermediate ovals. This research utilized advanced statistics to evaluate driver rating, a metric combining factors such as laps led and average running position, scored out of a possible 150 points [[^]](https://www.lapraptor.com/drivers/?max_date=2025-08-09&minimum_starts=1&report=all_advanced&season=2017&season=2018&season=2019&season=2020&season=2021&season=2022&season=2023&season=2024&season=2025&series=1&track_type=road_course). Across these specific track types for the 2023-2024 seasons, Kyle Larson recorded the highest average driver rating at an impressive 103.8, significantly aided by his strong performance on intermediate ovals. Denny Hamlin and William Byron also demonstrated competitive ratings within these categories [[^]](https://www.lapraptor.com/drivers/?max_date=2025-08-09&minimum_starts=1&report=all_advanced&season=2017&season=2018&season=2019&season=2020&season=2021&season=2022&season=2023&season=2024&season=2025&series=1&track_type=road_course).

Christopher Bell secured the best average finish with notable consistency. Over the same two seasons and track types, Christopher Bell distinguished himself by achieving the best average finish, at 9.8. This low average finish reflects his consistent ability to place in top positions, frequently securing top-10 results. While Kyle Larson also posted strong average finishes during this period, Bell's performance highlighted exceptional consistency across all three track types [[^]](https://www.lapraptor.com/drivers/?max_date=2025-08-09&minimum_starts=1&report=all_advanced&season=2017&season=2018&season=2019&season=2020&season=2021&season=2022&season=2023&season=2024&season=2025&series=1&track_type=road_course).

## How Do Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports Pit Crews Compare?

JGR #11 Pit Stop Time | 10.027 seconds [[^]](https://www.sportskeeda.com/nascar/nascar-pit-crew-rankings-2024-denny-hamlin-s-dominant-team-leads-charge-kansas) |
HMS #5 Pit Stop Time | 10.150 seconds [[^]](https://www.sportskeeda.com/nascar/nascar-pit-crew-rankings-2024-denny-hamlin-s-dominant-team-leads-charge-kansas) |
JGR Avg Penalties Per Car | 10.9 penalties per car [[^]](https://dailydownforce.com/every-single-2024-nascar-cup-series-penalty-so-far/) |

**Joe Gibbs Racing holds a slight lead in average pit stop times**

Joe Gibbs Racing holds a slight lead in average pit stop times. For the 2024 NASCAR season to date, Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) has demonstrated a marginal advantage in average 4-tire pit stop times over Hendrick Motorsports. Denny Hamlin's #11 Joe Gibbs Racing pit crew recorded the fastest average at 10.027 seconds. Kyle Larson's #5 Hendrick Motorsports pit crew followed closely with an average of 10.150 seconds, indicating that JGR's leading team performs marginally quicker pit stops [[^]](https://www.sportskeeda.com/nascar/nascar-pit-crew-rankings-2024-denny-hamlin-s-dominant-team-leads-charge-kansas).

Joe Gibbs Racing shows better discipline, incurring fewer pit road penalties. During the 2024 season, Joe Gibbs Racing has also incurred fewer penalties per car than Hendrick Motorsports. Joe Gibbs Racing accumulated 49 penalties, averaging 10.9 penalties per car. In contrast, Hendrick Motorsports recorded a total of 54 penalties, averaging 13.5 penalties per car [[^]](https://dailydownforce.com/every-single-2024-nascar-cup-series-penalty-so-far/). This data suggests Joe Gibbs Racing has a lower overall incidence of pit road penalties across its entries.

## Who Has the Lowest DNF Rate in NASCAR Playoffs (2022-2023)?

Denny Hamlin DNF Rate | 0% (2022 and 2023 NASCAR Cup Series playoff races) [[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2022/09/17/kyle-buschs-engine-fails-at-bristol-playoff-outlook-grim/) |
Other Prominent Drivers DNF Rate | 5% (1 DNF out of 20 playoff races) [[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2022/09/17/kyle-buschs-engine-fails-at-bristol-playoff-outlook-grim/) |
Total Playoff Races Analyzed | 20 (across 2022 and 2023 seasons) [[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2022/09/17/kyle-buschs-engine-fails-at-bristol-playoff-outlook-grim/) |

**Denny Hamlin maintained a flawless DNF record during recent NASCAR playoff races**

Denny Hamlin maintained a flawless DNF record during recent NASCAR playoff races. Denny Hamlin achieved the lowest Did Not Finish (DNF) rate due to mechanical failure or accidents during the 2022 and 2023 NASCAR Cup Series playoff races among drivers with detailed DNF incidents. He recorded a **0%** DNF rate over this period, as no mechanical failures or accidents causing a DNF were explicitly reported for him in the provided playoff-specific sources [[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2022/09/17/kyle-buschs-engine-fails-at-bristol-playoff-outlook-grim/). The NASCAR Cup Series playoffs consist of 10 races per season, totaling 20 playoff races across the 2022 and 2023 seasons. While specific current top-10 standings could not be definitively established from the provided sources, which referred to 2026 standings [[^]](https://www.espn.com/racing/standings/_/sort/top10), Hamlin's unblemished record in terms of mechanical failures or accidents during the documented 2022 and 2023 playoff races indicates superior survivability in the high-stakes knockout format.

Other leading drivers experienced specific mechanical failures or accidents during playoffs. In contrast to Hamlin, other prominent drivers each recorded one DNF during these playoff campaigns, resulting in a **5%** DNF rate over the 20 playoff races. For instance, Kyle Busch suffered an engine failure at Bristol during the 2022 playoffs [[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2022/09/17/kyle-buschs-engine-fails-at-bristol-playoff-outlook-grim/). Kyle Larson was eliminated from the 2022 playoffs following a chaotic finish, indicating an accident [[^]](https://www.racingamerica.com/news/nascar/kyle-larson-eliminated-from-cup-playoffs-after-chaotic-finish). Christopher Bell's championship hopes ended in the 2023 Phoenix playoff race due to a rotor failure [[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2023/11/05/christopher-bell-title-hopes-end-in-stage-2/).

## How Does Daniel Suarez Perform on Intermediate Tracks?

Driver Identified | Daniel Suarez [[^]](https://frcs.pro/nascar/cup/races/loopdata/2026/darlington-raceway/goodyear-400) |
2026 Intermediate Track Surplus Passing Value | +60 (140 Green Flag Passes vs. 80 Times Passed While Being Passed) [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/nascar/cup-series/stats?category=lap&groupId=2&season=2026) |
Overall Standing | Ranked outside the top 5 in the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series standings [[^]](https://www.nascar.com/standings/nascar-cup-series/) |

**While explicit career average data for "passes vs**

While explicit career average data for "passes vs. times passed" or highly granular data specifically limited to 1.5-mile tracks is unavailable, an analysis of 2026 advanced statistics for intermediate tracks, which include 1.5-mile configurations, can identify potential breakout performances. Daniel Suarez, currently outside the top-5 in the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series standings, demonstrates a notable positive 'surplus passing value' on intermediate tracks this season [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/nascar/cup-series/stats?category=lap&groupId=2&season=2026), [[^]](https://www.nascar.com/standings/nascar-cup-series/). This performance suggests a strong ability to gain positions on track compared to his peers.

Suarez's passing value highlights a potential **market**-undervalued breakout performance. He has achieved a surplus passing value of +60 on intermediate tracks during the 2026 season, derived from 140 Green Flag Passes and 80 Times Passed While Being Passed [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/nascar/cup-series/stats?category=lap&groupId=2&season=2026). This places him among the most efficient passers on these track types among drivers not currently in the top-5 championship contenders. Given his current ranking outside the top-5 in the overall Cup Series standings, this consistent on-track performance on intermediate tracks points to a potential breakout that may not yet be fully reflected in broader **market** assessments [[^]](https://www.nascar.com/standings/nascar-cup-series/).

## Which 2025 NASCAR Championship 4 Driver Excelled at Phoenix?

Denny Hamlin Avg Driver Rating | 114.85 [[^]](https://www.lapraptor.com/races/5585/loop-data/) |
Denny Hamlin Avg Running Position | 5.235 [[^]](https://www.lapraptor.com/races/5585/loop-data/) |
Denny Hamlin Total Laps Led | 150 [[^]](https://www.lapraptor.com/races/5585/loop-data/) |

**Among the drivers identified as making the 2025 'Championship 4'—Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, and Kyle Larson [[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2025/10/26/2025-cup-series-championship-4-cemented-larson-clinches-on-points/)—Denny Hamlin distinguished himself with the best average driver rating, average running position, and most laps led at Phoenix Raceway**

Among the drivers identified as making the 2025 'Championship 4'—Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, and Kyle Larson [[^]](https://www.nascar.com/news-media/2025/10/26/2025-cup-series-championship-4-cemented-larson-clinches-on-points/)—Denny Hamlin distinguished himself with the best average driver rating, average running position, and most laps led at Phoenix Raceway. This assessment is based on their performances in the 2024 and 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship races held at that venue [[^]](https://www.lapraptor.com/races/5585/loop-data/).

Hamlin demonstrated superior performance across specific statistical categories at Phoenix. An analysis of their statistics from the 2024 and 2025 championship races at Phoenix Raceway reveals Denny Hamlin achieved an average driver rating of 114.85, an average running position of 5.235, and led a total of 150 laps [[^]](https://www.lapraptor.com/races/5585/loop-data/). In comparison, Christopher Bell recorded an average driver rating of 113.55, an average running position of 5.715, and 104 laps led. William Byron posted an average driver rating of 103.4, an average running position of 8.245, and 21 laps led, while Kyle Larson had an average driver rating of 97.75, an average running position of 9.18, and 0 laps led [[^]](https://www.lapraptor.com/races/5585/loop-data/). Consequently, Denny Hamlin secured the highest average driver rating, the lowest (best) average running position, and led the most laps at Phoenix Raceway across these two championship events when stacked against the other identified 2025 Championship 4 drivers. The research specifically identified the 2025 Championship 4 drivers, without listing them for previous seasons.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** November 29, 2026
- **Closes:** November 15, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

No historical resolution data available for this series.

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.