# Detroit at Tampa Bay DET at TB (Apr 13) Updated: April 13, 2026 Category: Sports Tags: Hockey HTML: /markets/sports/hockey/detroit-at-tampa-bay/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect the TB Lightning to win, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Detroit faces a must-win situation to keep playoff hopes alive.** - Captain Dylan Larkin's absence significantly weakens Detroit's lineup. - 'Sharp money' shows a preference for Detroit on the puck line. - Tampa Bay is statistically stronger with solid underlying 5-on-5 analytics. - Tampa Bay has clinched playoffs, reducing their motivation for this game. - Larkin's confirmed injury was the primary catalyst for **market** shifts. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** At 63c, **market** prices Tampa Bay higher than the **54.6%** **model**, suggesting overvaluation for their win. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TB Lightning | 63.0% | 54.6% | Detroit's lineup is weakened by captain Dylan Larkin's injury, and Tampa Bay is statistically stronger. | | DET Red Wings | 38.0% | 45.4% | Detroit is in a must-win situation for playoff hopes, unlike Tampa Bay which has clinched. | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | TB Lightning | 63.0% | 54.6% | | DET Red Wings | 38.0% | 45.4% | - Expiration: April 27, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This market, which predicts a Tampa Bay victory over Detroit, opened with a probability of 35.0% before experiencing a dramatic upward trend. The most significant price movement occurred on April 11, when the probability for a Tampa Bay win jumped 24 percentage points, from 35.0% to 59.0%. Since this spike, the price has consolidated, settling at its current level of 63.0%. The initial price of 35.0% acted as a clear support level before the breakout. The market now appears to have found a new level of consensus around the 63.0% to 71.0% range, which may act as a new support zone leading into the event's resolution. The sharp price increase on April 11 indicates a sudden and decisive shift in market sentiment, although the specific catalyst for this change is not available in the provided context. Volume patterns support this interpretation of growing conviction. Trading was initially nonexistent but began to increase as the price rose. The sample data shows a dramatic increase in volume on April 13, the day of the game, with the price holding firm at 63.0%. This surge in trading activity at a stable, elevated price suggests that the market has reached a strong consensus and is confidently pricing in a high probability of a Tampa Bay victory. ## Significant Price Movements #### 📉 April 12, 2026: 8.0pp drop Price decreased from 45.0% to 37.0% **Outcome:** DET Red Wings **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. #### 📈 April 11, 2026: 29.0pp spike Price increased from 10.0% to 39.0% **Outcome:** DET Red Wings **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot The market resolves to Yes if the TB Lightning win the Detroit at Tampa Bay professional hockey game scheduled for April 13, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to No. The outcome is verified by the NHL. Trading for this market opened on April 10, 2026, and will close after a winner is declared or by April 27, 2026, with a projected payout one minute after closing. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DET Red Wings | 37% | 38% | 38% | $31,295 | $30,353 | | TB Lightning | 62% | 63% | 63% | $66,184 | $57,611 | ## What Was the Primary Catalyst for the April 11th Market Spike? Dylan Larkin Status | Sidelined for at least two weeks with lower-body injury [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/dylan-larkin-out-at-least-two-weeks-for-detroit-red-wings-with-injury) | Market Spike Date | April 11th [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/dylan-larkin-out-at-least-two-weeks-for-detroit-red-wings-with-injury) | Andrei Vasilevskiy April 11 Status | No new injury or absence reported [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/gametracker/preview/NHL_20260411_TB@BOS/) | **Detroit Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin's confirmed injury explains the market spike** Detroit Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin's confirmed injury explains the **market** spike. On or around April 11th, Larkin was officially confirmed to be sidelined for at least two weeks due to a lower-body injury [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/dylan-larkin-out-at-least-two-weeks-for-detroit-red-wings-with-injury). This definitive news regarding a key player's multi-week absence is considered the most probable catalyst for the 24-point prediction **market** price spike observed on April 11th. Larkin's status shifted from playing hurt to confirmed absence. This official confirmation followed earlier reports from late March 2026 indicating Larkin was "playing hurt" and "ailing" [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/ailing-dylan-larkin-ive-got-032522638.html). The transition from his previous status of playing through an injury to a confirmed, definitive multi-week absence for a significant player such as Larkin directly correlates with the observed **market** movement. No new injury for Vasilevskiy was reported on April 11th. Conversely, there was no specific confirmed or heavily rumored injury development for Tampa Bay's starting goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy on April 11th that would account for such a significant **market** movement. While Vasilevskiy has generally undergone injury treatment [[^]](https://www.rotowire.com/hockey/headlines/andrei-vasilevskiy-injury-undergoing-treatment-565067), available sources for April 11, 2026, primarily consist of game previews that do not suggest a new injury or absence for him on that specific date [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/nhl/gametracker/preview/NHL_20260411_TB@BOS/). Earlier reports concerning Vasilevskiy's return from injury date back to December 2025 [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-status-report-news-and-notes-december-18-2025), which predates the **market** activity in question. ## How Did 'Sharp Money' Influence Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Lines? Opening Moneyline (TB Lightning) | -225 [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/nhl-game/detroit-red-wings-tampa-bay-lightning/234914) | Closing Moneyline (TB Lightning) | -215 [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/nhl-game/detroit-red-wings-tampa-bay-lightning/234914) | % of Total Money on TB Moneyline | 55% [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/nhl-game/detroit-red-wings-tampa-bay-lightning/234914) | **The Tampa Bay Lightning's betting lines shifted between market open and close on April 11th** The Tampa Bay Lightning's betting lines shifted between **market** open and close on April 11th. The moneyline for the Lightning moved from an opening of -225 to -215 by **market** close, indicating they were perceived as slightly less favored. Concurrently, their puck line moved from -1.5 (+105) to -1.5 (+115) by 4:00 PM EST, making a bet on them to cover the spread more financially appealing due to an increased potential payout [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/nhl-game/detroit-red-wings-tampa-bay-lightning/234914). Betting volume data strongly suggests 'sharp money' influenced these line movements. Despite approximately **75%** of moneyline bets favoring Tampa Bay, the lines either moved minimally in their favor or shifted against them, signaling a "subtle influx of 'sharp' money on the Detroit Red Wings" [[^]](https://www.fanduel.com/research/lightning-vs-red-wings-prediction-nhl-odds-4-11-2025). This divergence is further supported by specific figures: while **69%** of moneyline bets were placed on Tampa Bay, these bets constituted only **55%** of the total money wagered. Similarly, on the puck line, **67%** of bets were on Tampa Bay -1.5, but this represented only **46%** of the total money placed on that outcome [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/nhl-game/detroit-red-wings-tampa-bay-lightning/234914). Such disproportionate betting volume indicates professional bettors were backing the Detroit Red Wings, thereby influencing the lines against the public's heavy favor for Tampa Bay [[^]](https://www.fanduel.com/research/lightning-vs-red-wings-prediction-nhl-odds-4-11-2025). ## What's at Stake for Red Wings Playoff Hopes April 13th? Tampa Bay Playoff Status | Clinched first wild card spot in Eastern Conference [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/stanley-cup-playoffs-clinching-scenarios-for-april-13-2026) | Detroit's Win Requirement | Must win against Tampa Bay Lightning [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/stanley-cup-playoffs-clinching-scenarios-for-april-13-2026) | Detroit's External Help Needed | New York Islanders and Pittsburgh Penguins must lose [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/stanley-cup-playoffs-clinching-scenarios-for-april-13-2026) | **The Tampa Bay Lightning have already secured their playoff berth** The Tampa Bay Lightning have already secured their playoff berth. They clinched the first wild card spot in the Eastern Conference with 100 points [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/stanley-cup-playoffs-clinching-scenarios-for-april-13-2026). As a result, their playoff position is locked, and the April 13th game carries no playoff seeding implications for the team [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/stanley-cup-playoffs-clinching-scenarios-for-april-13-2026). Regardless of the game's outcome, the Lightning will face an Atlantic Division winner in the first round of the playoffs [[^]](https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/48468003/nhl-playoffs-bracket-standings-2026-wild-card-bracket-games-matchups). The Detroit Red Wings face a critical 'must-win' situation to keep their playoff hopes alive. Entering the game with 90 points, Detroit needs to defeat the Tampa Bay Lightning to have any chance of making the postseason [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/stanley-cup-playoffs-clinching-scenarios-for-april-13-2026). This game is essential for them to remain in contention for a playoff spot. Even with a win, Detroit's playoff hopes rely on other results. Their qualification for the postseason also depends on specific external outcomes: both the New York Islanders and the Pittsburgh Penguins must lose their respective final regular-season games [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/stanley-cup-playoffs-clinching-scenarios-for-april-13-2026). If either the Islanders or Penguins secure points in their final games, the Red Wings would be eliminated from playoff contention, even if they defeat Tampa Bay [[^]](https://www.nhl.com/news/stanley-cup-playoffs-clinching-scenarios-for-april-13-2026). ## How Do Red Wings and Lightning Analytics Impact Valuation? Detroit Red Wings Recent Record | 5-4-1 (last 10 games) [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/detroit-red-wings-game-log-last-10-games) | Detroit Red Wings Expected Goals For % | 48.33% [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?team=DET) | Tampa Bay Lightning Expected Goals For % | 53.01% [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?team=T.B) | **Detroit's recent record may overstate their underlying 5-on-5 performance** Detroit's recent record may overstate their underlying 5-on-5 performance. Over their last 10 games, the Detroit Red Wings have compiled a record of 5 wins, 4 losses, and 1 overtime loss (5-4-1) [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/detroit-red-wings-game-log-last-10-games). Despite this nearly even record, their underlying 5-on-5 performance metrics suggest a potential over-performance. The Red Wings' Expected Goals For percentage (xGF%) is **48.33%**, indicating they are generating fewer expected goals than their opponents at even strength [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?team=DET). Similarly, their High-Danger Scoring Chance For percentage (HDCF%) stands at **47.96%**, meaning they are also giving up more high-danger chances than they create [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?team=DET). This divergence, where their win-loss record is slightly better than what their shot and chance quality metrics would predict, suggests that Detroit may be currently overvalued by the **market** [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?team=DET). Tampa Bay's strong record aligns with robust underlying metrics. In contrast, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a strong recent record of 7 wins, 2 losses, and 1 overtime loss (7-2-1) in their last 10 games [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?team=T.B). Their underlying 5-on-5 performance metrics largely align with this success, indicating a more sustainable level of play. The Lightning boast an Expected Goals For percentage (xGF%) of **53.01%**, signifying that they are consistently out-creating their opponents in expected goals at even strength [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?team=T.B). Their High-Danger Scoring Chance For percentage (HDCF%) is also robust at **52.88%**, showing they are effectively generating more high-quality scoring opportunities than they concede [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?team=T.B). The alignment between Tampa Bay's strong win-loss record and positive underlying metrics suggests their current **market** valuation is likely appropriate, if not slightly conservative, given their consistent strong play [[^]](https://www.naturalstattrick.com/teamreport.php?team=T.B). ## What is Tampa Bay Lightning's Power-Play Success Rate vs. Red Wings? Power-play Goals | 1 (across 2 games) [[^]](http://hockey-reference.com/boxscores/202603120TBL.html) | Power-play Opportunities | 6 (across 2 games) [[^]](http://hockey-reference.com/boxscores/202603120TBL.html) | Overall Power-play Success Rate | 16.7% [[^]](http://hockey-reference.com/boxscores/202603120TBL.html) | **Tampa Bay achieved a 16.7% power-play success rate against Detroit during the 2025-2026 season** Tampa Bay achieved a **16.7%** power-play success rate against Detroit during the 2025-2026 season. In their head-to-head matchups, the Tampa Bay Lightning played the Detroit Red Wings in at least two games. On November 28, 2025, in Detroit, the Lightning recorded 0 power-play goals on 3 opportunities [[^]](http://www.hockey-reference.com/boxscores/202511280DET.html). Subsequently, on March 12, 2026, when Detroit visited Tampa Bay, the Lightning scored 1 power-play goal from 3 opportunities [[^]](http://hockey-reference.com/boxscores/202603120TBL.html). Cumulatively, across these two contests, Tampa Bay had a total of 6 power-play opportunities and scored 1 goal against the Red Wings, translating to an approximate **16.7%** overall power-play success rate [[^]](http://hockey-reference.com/boxscores/202603120TBL.html). However, specific unit performance data remains unavailable from current research. The available research, which includes box scores and game summaries, does not provide the specific details required to identify or calculate the success rate of Tampa Bay's designated "top power-play unit" against Detroit's "primary penalty-killing lines." ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** April 27, 2026 - **Closes:** April 27, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [CB Malaga vs Bilbao Basket](/markets/sports/basketball/cb-malaga-vs-bilbao-basket/) - [Olimpia vs Luqueno](/markets/sports/soccer/olimpia-vs-luqueno/) - [Trinidense vs CD Recoleta](/markets/sports/soccer/trinidense-vs-cd-recoleta/) - [Feldbausch vs Kingsley](/markets/sports/tennis/feldbausch-vs-kingsley/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXNHLGAME-26APR12VANANA-VAN: YES (Apr 13, 2026) - KXNHLGAME-26APR12VANANA-ANA: NO (Apr 13, 2026) - KXNHLGAME-26APR12OTTNJ-OTT: NO (Apr 13, 2026) - KXNHLGAME-26APR12OTTNJ-NJ: YES (Apr 13, 2026) - KXNHLGAME-26APR12UTACGY-UTA: NO (Apr 13, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.