# U.S. Open Winner

2026 U.S. Open

Updated: June 9, 2026

Category: Sports

Tags: Golf

HTML: /markets/sports/golf/u-s-open-winner/

## Short Answer

**Both the model and the market expect Scottie Scheffler to win the 2026 U.S.** Open, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Scottie Scheffler is the consensus betting favorite for the 2026 U.S.** Open.
- Ludvig Åberg excelled on long, challenging courses throughout the 2026 season.
- The U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills favors patient, precise ball-strikers.
- Dark horse candidates are positioned as mid-range contenders by major sportsbooks.
- Wyndham Clark secured a major victory in May 2026 due to a putter change.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **3.3%** for Åberg lags **market**'s **4.1%** (-0.5pp gap), despite strong major event finishes on difficult courses.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Scottie Scheffler | 16.0% | 17.5% | Market expectations reflect his consistent top-tier performance and major championship pedigree. |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 0.5% | 0.5% | Market expectations indicate he lacks the established track record of top contenders. |
| Corey Conners | 0.6% | 0.5% | Market expectations do not highlight specific drivers for a major championship win. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Scottie Scheffler | 16.0% | 17.5% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Corey Conners | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Joaquin Niemann | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| Wyndham Clark | 1.9% | 1.5% |
| Rory McIlroy | 8.1% | 7.4% |
| Harris English | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Si Woo Kim | 2.1% | 1.7% |
| Brooks Koepka | 2.6% | 2.3% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 3.9% | 3.1% |
| Adam Scott | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Cameron Young | 4.1% | 3.3% |
| J.J. Spaun | 1.5% | 1.2% |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 3.2% | 2.2% |
| Keegan Bradley | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Sepp Straka | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Russell Henley | 2.6% | 2.1% |
| Jon Rahm | 5.4% | 3.6% |
| Sam Burns | 1.9% | 1.4% |
| Alex Noren | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Alex Smalley | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Xander Schauffele | 3.7% | 3.0% |
| Aaron Rai | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Justin Thomas | 1.7% | 1.4% |
| Justin Rose | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| Robert MacIntyre | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Rickie Fowler | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Jake Knapp | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Jackson Koivun | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Chris Gotterup | 1.6% | 1.3% |
| Cameron Smith | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 4.1% | 3.6% |
| Ben Griffin | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Shane Lowry | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Ryan Gerard | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Min Woo Lee | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Akshay Bhatia | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| Patrick Reed | 1.7% | 1.4% |
| Collin Morikawa | 1.4% | 1.1% |
| Jason Day | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Maverick McNealy | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Jordan Spieth | 1.2% | 1.0% |
| Sahith Theegala | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 2.5% | 2.0% |
| Niklas Norgaard Moller | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Sungjae Im | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Viktor Hovland | 1.1% | 0.9% |
| Ryan Fox | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Gary Woodland | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Ethan Fang | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Dustin Johnson | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Nick Taylor | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Manav Shah | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Matthew McCarty | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Taihei Sato | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Daniel Berger | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Laurie Canter | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Marco Penge | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Cooper Dossey | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Matti Schmid | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Harry Hall | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Graeme McDowell | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Nathan Kimsey | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Brian Harman | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Pierceson Coody | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Andrew Novak | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| David Puig | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| T.K. Kim | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Rocco Repetto Taylor | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Jackson Herrington | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Brandon Holtz | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Tom Kim | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| Caleb Surratt | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Michael Brennan | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Miles Russell | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| Matthew Jordan | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Mason Howell | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Jimmy Stanger | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| Hamilton Coleman | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Jayden Trey Schaper | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Adrien Saddier | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Peter Uihlein | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| Mateo Pulcini | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Angel Hidalgo | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Ugo Coussaud | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Nick Hardy | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| James Nicholas | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Preston Stout | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| Padraig Harrington | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Michael Kim | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Zac Blair | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| J.B. Holmes | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| Lucas Herbert | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Sam Stevens | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Max Greyserman | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| Carlos Ortiz | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Filippo Celli | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Cole Hammer | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| Neal Shipley | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| Kaito Onishi | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| Billy Horschel | 1.0% | — |
| Carl Yuan | 1.0% | — |
| Chris Kirk | 1.0% | — |
| Keith Mitchell | 1.0% | — |
| Ryuichi Oiwa | 0.1% | — |
| John Keefer | 0.5% | — |
| Benjamin James | 0.0% | — |
| Jackson Ormond | 0.0% | — |
| Kevin Roy | 0.0% | — |
| Jackson Van Paris | 0.0% | — |
| Dylan Wu | 0.0% | — |
| Brandon Wu | 0.0% | — |
| Ryder Cowan | 0.0% | — |
| Marek Fleming | 0.0% | — |
| Emiliano Grillo | 0.0% | — |
| Ben Kohles | 0.0% | — |
| Eric Lee | 0.0% | — |
| Max McGreevy | 0.0% | — |
| Taylor Montgomery | 0.0% | — |
| William Mouw | 0.0% | — |
| John Parry | 0.0% | — |
| Giuseppe Puebla | 0.0% | — |
| Logan Reilly | 0.0% | — |
| Matthew Robles | 0.0% | — |
| Marcelo Rozo | 0.0% | — |
| Ben Silverman | 0.0% | — |
| Jake Sollon | 0.0% | — |
| Jackson Suber | 0.0% | — |
| Davis Thompson | 0.0% | — |
| Alejandro Tosti | 0.0% | — |
| Vaughn Harber | 0.0% | — |
| Robbie Higgins | 0.0% | — |
| Chase Kyes | 0.0% | — |
| Greyson Leach | 0.0% | — |
| Jake Peacock | 0.0% | — |
| Arni Sveinsson | 0.0% | — |
| Andrew Putnam | 0.0% | — |

- Expiration: July 5, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market has exhibited a sideways trend since its inception, with the price trading within a very narrow one-percentage-point band. The contract opened at 5.0% and has since drifted slightly downward to its current price of 4.1%. The trading range suggests that 5.0% has acted as an initial resistance level, while the 4.0% mark has established itself as a support level that has so far held. The overall price movement has been gradual, lacking any sharp spikes or crashes.

The provided context, which notes the tournament date and Scottie Scheffler's status as the betting favorite, does not point to a specific news event that would explain the modest price decline. The volume pattern, as indicated by sample data, shows an increase in trading activity as the price fell from 4.9% to 4.1%. This suggests that market participation and conviction grew as the valuation became more modest. Overall, the stable but low probability hovering in the 4-5% range indicates that market participants believe this is a low-probability event, which is typical for picking a single winner in a major golf tournament well in advance. The slight downward trend reflects a marginal decrease in market confidence since trading began.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to Yes if Scottie Scheffler wins the U.S. Open, using Fox Sports, ESPN, and the PGA Tour as sources. If Scottie Scheffler forfeits, withdraws, or does not participate before teeing off, his contracts will resolve to No. The market began on June 18, 6:45 am EDT, and will close after a winner is declared or by July 5, 2026, at 12:00 am EDT.

## Market Discussion

As of June 9, 2026, Scottie Scheffler is the clear favorite to win the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, with major prediction markets assigning him a 15% win probability and traditional sportsbooks listing him with strong odds [[^]](https://www.si.com/prediction-markets/us-open-kalshi-prediction-market-who-is-trending-up-and-down-01ktc3azfm7q)[[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/golf/events/us-open-winner-jun-18-2026/)[[^]](https://www.si.com/prediction-markets/kalshi-u-s-open-odds-everything-you-need-to-know-to-bet-on-golf-using-prediction-markets-01ksmssx9jr0)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-odds-updated-betting-163800357.html)[[^]](https://www.bleachernation.com/betting/2026/06/07/us-open-favorite/). Prediction market traders have shown declining sentiment for Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau, while Matt Fitzpatrick and Cameron Young have seen more favorable trends [[^]](https://www.si.com/prediction-markets/us-open-kalshi-prediction-market-who-is-trending-up-and-down-01ktc3azfm7q)[[^]](https://www.si.com/prediction-markets/kalshi-u-s-open-odds-everything-you-need-to-know-to-bet-on-golf-using-prediction-markets-01ksmssx9jr0)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-odds-updated-betting-163800357.html). Market commentary notes the challenging Shinnecock Hills course conditions, suggesting value in round-finish wagers and longshot prop bets [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/2026-u-s-open-odds-picks-date-pga-predictions-golfers-field-best-bets/)[[^]](https://bovadahub.com/sports/golf/us-open-golf-odds-and-preview/).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Akshay Bhatia | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | $149,866.86 | $138,943.41 |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | $1,840.5 | $1,840.5 |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | $208,925.98 | $190,899.31 |
| Angel Hidalgo | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $1,055.25 | $1,055.25 |
| Alex Noren | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | $214,009.6 | $214,009.6 |
| Andrew Novak | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | $8,554.02 | $8,554.02 |
| Andrew Putnam | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Aaron Rai | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | $205,340.81 | $175,631.12 |
| Adrien Saddier | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $1,864.75 | $1,864.75 |
| Adam Scott | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | $308,635.21 | $260,948.9 |
| Alex Smalley | 0.3% | 1% | 1.1% | $213,891.65 | $213,296.29 |
| Arni Sveinsson | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Alejandro Tosti | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | $248,418.89 | $243,750 |
| Ben Griffin | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | $159,409.01 | $158,898.72 |
| Brian Harman | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | $9,831.79 | $9,831.79 |
| Brandon Holtz | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $4,843.98 | $4,843.98 |
| Billy Horschel | 0% | 1% | 1% | $93.51 | $93.51 |
| Benjamin James | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Brooks Koepka | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.6% | $355,713.39 | $350,014.74 |
| Ben Kohles | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Ben Silverman | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Brandon Wu | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Cameron Young | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.1% | $306,624.83 | $271,203.34 |
| Corey Conners | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | $721,000.59 | $720,800.59 |
| Cooper Dossey | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $13,683 | $13,683 |
| Chris Gotterup | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | $184,154.69 | $178,820.57 |
| Cole Hammer | 0% | 1% | 1% | $187.02 | $187.02 |
| Chris Kirk | 0% | 1% | 1% | $93.51 | $93.51 |
| Chase Kyes | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Collin Morikawa | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | $132,480.91 | $126,959.68 |
| Carlos Ortiz | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | $192.06 | $192.06 |
| Cameron Smith | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | $169,989.81 | $139,393.06 |
| Caleb Surratt | 0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | $3,627.75 | $3,627.75 |
| Carl Yuan | 0% | 1% | 1% | $93.51 | $93.51 |
| Daniel Berger | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | $17,884.39 | $17,884.39 |
| Dustin Johnson | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | $28,624.38 | $28,623.38 |
| David Puig | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | $8,477.36 | $8,477.36 |
| Davis Thompson | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Dylan Wu | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Ethan Fang | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $32,793.95 | $32,793.95 |
| Emiliano Grillo | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Eric Lee | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Filippo Celli | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $191.61 | $191.61 |
| Greyson Leach | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Graeme McDowell | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $10,927.8 | $10,927.8 |
| Giuseppe Puebla | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Gary Woodland | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | $47,944.72 | $47,943.72 |
| Hamilton Coleman | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $2,534.65 | $2,534.65 |
| Harris English | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | $428,701.17 | $389,037.43 |
| Harry Hall | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | $12,742.23 | $12,742.23 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | $61,157.38 | $59,865.7 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | $727,998.74 | $727,997.74 |
| Jason Day | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | $130,681.95 | $101,324.18 |
| Jackson Herrington | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $5,237.41 | $5,237.41 |
| J.B. Holmes | 0% | 1% | 1% | $467.59 | $467.59 |
| John Keefer | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | $27.47 | $27.47 |
| Jake Knapp | 0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | $191,975.14 | $191,974.14 |
| Jackson Koivun | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | $186,055.18 | $186,055.18 |
| James Nicholas | 0% | 1% | 1% | $935.19 | $935.19 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 0.7% | 1% | 1.1% | $701,025.61 | $645,974.77 |
| Jackson Ormond | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| John Parry | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Jake Peacock | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Jon Rahm | 5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | $232,154.27 | $226,229.65 |
| Justin Rose | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | $200,100.67 | $183,867.51 |
| Jayden Trey Schaper | 0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | $2,439.29 | $2,439.29 |
| Jake Sollon | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| J.J. Spaun | 1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | $301,794.23 | $297,744.44 |
| Jordan Spieth | 1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | $94,220.24 | $87,932.34 |
| Jimmy Stanger | 0% | 0.1% | 1% | $3,333 | $3,333 |
| Jackson Suber | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Justin Thomas | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | $200,651.74 | $162,766.07 |
| Jackson Van Paris | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Keegan Bradley | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | $245,563.03 | $186,431.03 |
| Kurt Kitayama | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | $153,370.83 | $153,370.83 |
| Keith Mitchell | 0% | 1% | 1% | $93.51 | $93.51 |
| Kaito Onishi | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $114.35 | $114.35 |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | $61,441.04 | $61,439.04 |
| Kevin Roy | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Ludvig Aberg | 4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | $164,096.35 | $159,938.86 |
| Laurie Canter | 0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | $16,510.66 | $16,510.66 |
| Lucas Herbert | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | $309.8 | $309.8 |
| Logan Reilly | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Michael Brennan | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | $3,564.57 | $3,564.57 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | $75,289.25 | $71,684.37 |
| Marek Fleming | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Max Greyserman | 0% | 1% | 1% | $233.79 | $233.79 |
| Mason Howell | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $3,444 | $3,444 |
| Matthew Jordan | 0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | $3,450.17 | $3,450.17 |
| Michael Kim | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | $539.9 | $539.9 |
| Min Woo Lee | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | $156,467.32 | $154,798.72 |
| Matthew McCarty | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | $21,286.91 | $21,286.91 |
| Max McGreevy | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Maverick McNealy | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | $127,936.3 | $127,335.3 |
| Marco Penge | 0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | $14,295.12 | $8,272 |
| Mateo Pulcini | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $1,486.51 | $1,486.51 |
| Matthew Robles | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Marcelo Rozo | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Miles Russell | 0% | 1% | 1% | $3,493.85 | $3,493.85 |
| Matti Schmid | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | $13,051.73 | $13,051.73 |
| Manav Shah | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $24,138.85 | $24,138.85 |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | $7,090.17 | $7,090.17 |
| Nick Hardy | 0% | 1% | 1% | $935.19 | $935.19 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | $26,147.66 | $26,147.66 |
| Nathan Kimsey | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $10,455.1 | $10,455.1 |
| Niklas Norgaard Moller | 0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | $66,038.37 | $65,809.35 |
| Neal Shipley | 0% | 1% | 1% | $187.02 | $187.02 |
| Nick Taylor | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | $25,144.37 | $25,143.37 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | $167,583.68 | $160,707.7 |
| Pierceson Coody | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | $9,511.61 | $9,511.61 |
| Padraig Harrington | 0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | $659.13 | $659.13 |
| Patrick Reed | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.7% | $133,006.81 | $132,389.02 |
| Patrick Rodgers | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | $738.57 | $738.57 |
| Preston Stout | 0% | 1% | 1% | $709.92 | $709.92 |
| Peter Uihlein | 0% | 0.2% | 0.3% | $1,863.33 | $1,863.33 |
| Ryder Cowan | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Rickie Fowler | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | $193,939.75 | $171,550.16 |
| Ryan Fox | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | $58,680.73 | $58,680.73 |
| Ryan Gerard | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | $156,679.34 | $155,355.89 |
| Russell Henley | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | $238,692.62 | $187,050.72 |
| Robbie Higgins | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | $7,427.68 | $7,427.68 |
| Robert MacIntyre | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | $195,214.34 | $176,052.95 |
| Rory McIlroy | 8% | 8.1% | 8.1% | $462,138.87 | $393,037.46 |
| Ryuichi Oiwa | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $87.5 | $87.5 |
| Rocco Repetto Taylor | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $6,611.55 | $6,611.55 |
| Sam Burns | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.9% | $227,182.6 | $218,231.41 |
| Sungjae Im | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | $60,063.8 | $60,028.18 |
| Shane Lowry | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | $157,211.92 | $135,801.62 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 14% | 16% | 16% | $730,298.72 | $579,864.45 |
| Sam Stevens | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | $261.8 | $261.8 |
| Sepp Straka | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | $241,702.86 | $159,202.77 |
| Sahith Theegala | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | $86,886.91 | $86,886.91 |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% | $1,726.53 | $1,726.53 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | $319,408.89 | $298,108.42 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | $137,060.3 | $136,321.02 |
| Tom Kim | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | $4,718.81 | $4,718.81 |
| T.K. Kim | 0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | $7,310.85 | $7,310.85 |
| Taylor Montgomery | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Taihei Sato | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $20,349.25 | $20,349.25 |
| Ugo Coussaud | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $1,029.85 | $1,029.85 |
| Vaughn Harber | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Viktor Hovland | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | $59,894.93 | $57,622.97 |
| Wyndham Clark | 1.8% | 2% | 1.9% | $657,615.37 | $583,756.86 |
| Si Woo Kim | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.1% | $357,233.78 | $345,275.16 |
| William Mouw | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Xander Schauffele | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.7% | $207,186.83 | $201,620.28 |
| Zac Blair | 0% | 1% | 1% | $476 | $476 |

## What performance data and course history support Scottie Scheffler's position as the betting favorite for the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills?

Betting Odds (June 9, 2026) | +525 to +600, 15–16% win probability [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-odds-updated-betting-163800357.html)[[^]](https://www.covers.com/golf/us-open/odds)[[^]](https://www.fanduel.com/research/us-open-golf-odds-for-2026-who-are-the-favorites-at-shinnecock-hills)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/2026-u-s-open-odds-picks-date-pga-predictions-golfers-field-best-bets/) |
2026 Season Performance | 1 PGA TOUR victory, 7 top-10 finishes, over $11M earnings, World No. 1 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/Scottie-Scheffler/results)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/player/results/_/id/9478/scottie-scheffler)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/players/2156104/scottie-scheffler/tournament-results/)[[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/pga/ask/scottie-scheffler-2026-season-stats) |
U.S. Open Top-10 Finishes | 4 of the last 5 editions [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-odds-updated-betting-163800357.html)[[^]](https://www.covers.com/golf/us-open/odds)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/48956842/scottie-scheffler-scouts-shinnecock-hills-ahead-us-open)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy-send-184349229.html)[[^]](https://fansided.com/golf/scottie-schefflers-first-look-at-shinnecock-suggests-a-classic-u-s-open-is-coming) |

**Scottie Scheffler is the consensus betting favorite for the 2026 U.S**

Scottie Scheffler is the consensus betting favorite for the 2026 U.S. Open. As of June 9, 2026, Scheffler holds this position for the tournament at Shinnecock Hills, with odds ranging from +525 to +600 and an estimated win **probability** of 15–**16%** across various prediction markets and sportsbooks [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-odds-updated-betting-163800357.html)[[^]](https://www.covers.com/golf/us-open/odds)[[^]](https://www.fanduel.com/research/us-open-golf-odds-for-2026-who-are-the-favorites-at-shinnecock-hills)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/2026-u-s-open-odds-picks-date-pga-predictions-golfers-field-best-bets/). His favorable standing is supported by his strong performance during the 2026 season and consistent high finishes in previous U.S. Open championships [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/Scottie-Scheffler/results)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/player/results/_/id/9478/scottie-scheffler)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/players/2156104/scottie-scheffler/tournament-results/)[[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/pga/ask/scottie-scheffler-2026-season-stats)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-odds-updated-betting-163800357.html)[[^]](https://www.covers.com/golf/us-open/odds)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/48956842/scottie-scheffler-scouts-shinnecock-hills-ahead-us-open)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy-send-184349229.html)[[^]](https://fansided.com/golf/scottie-schefflers-first-look-at-shinnecock-suggests-a-classic-u-s-open-is-coming).

Scheffler's impressive 2026 season contributes significantly to his favored status. This season, he has secured one official PGA TOUR victory at The American Express, achieved seven top-10 finishes, and earned over **$11** million, maintaining his rank as the world No. 1 golfer [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/Scottie-Scheffler/results)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/player/results/_/id/9478/scottie-scheffler)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/players/2156104/scottie-scheffler/tournament-results/)[[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/pga/ask/scottie-scheffler-2026-season-stats). Furthermore, he has demonstrated strong form in recent U.S. Open championships, achieving top-10 finishes in four of the last five editions, as he pursues the career Grand Slam at the 2026 tournament [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-odds-updated-betting-163800357.html)[[^]](https://www.covers.com/golf/us-open/odds)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/48956842/scottie-scheffler-scouts-shinnecock-hills-ahead-us-open)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy-send-184349229.html)[[^]](https://fansided.com/golf/scottie-schefflers-first-look-at-shinnecock-suggests-a-classic-u-s-open-is-coming).

Despite no prior course history, Scheffler conducted a Shinnecock Hills scouting visit. While Scheffler lacks prior tournament history at Shinnecock Hills, he undertook an initial scouting visit to the course in early June 2026 [[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/48956842/scottie-scheffler-scouts-shinnecock-hills-ahead-us-open)[[^]](https://www.newsweek.com/sports/golf/scottie-scheffler-issues-warning-to-players-ahead-of-u-s-open-12028211)[[^]](https://www.golfmonthly.com/news/how-to-win-at-shinnecock-hills-rory-mcilroy-and-scottie-scheffler-give-their-verdicts-after-us-open-scouting-trips). During this visit, he identified the course's extremely difficult green complexes and penal rough as its primary challenges [[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/48956842/scottie-scheffler-scouts-shinnecock-hills-ahead-us-open)[[^]](https://www.newsweek.com/sports/golf/scottie-scheffler-issues-warning-to-players-ahead-of-u-s-open-12028211)[[^]](https://www.golfmonthly.com/news/how-to-win-at-shinnecock-hills-rory-mcilroy-and-scottie-scheffler-give-their-verdicts-after-us-open-scouting-trips).

## Which historical performance trends from previous U.S. Opens at Shinnecock Hills indicate the most likely winning player profile for 2026?

2018 U.S. Open Winning Score | 1-over 281 (Brooks Koepka) [[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/23823933/brooks-koepka-wins-us-open-second-straight-year)[[^]](https://sportsorca.com/golf/brooks-koepka-wedges-shinnecock/)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_U.S._Open_(golf)) |
2004 U.S. Open Winning Score | 4-under 276 (Retief Goosen) [[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/usopen04/news/story?id=1825197) |
Winning Player Profile | Patient ball-striker with strong wedge/iron precision and proven scrambling/putting under pressure [[^]](https://sportsorca.com/golf/us-open-winning-score-shinnecock/)[[^]](https://sportsorca.com/golf/2026-us-open-shinnecock-hills-preview/)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/23823933/brooks-koepka-wins-us-open-second-straight-year)[[^]](https://sportsorca.com/golf/shinnecock-hills-survival-guide/) |

**The most likely winning player profile for the 2026 U.S**

The most likely winning player profile for the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills emphasizes a patient, precise ball-striker. This player demonstrates strong wedge and iron precision, along with proven scrambling and putting under pressure, consistently minimizing blowups and making par a strategic objective [[^]](https://sportsorca.com/golf/us-open-winning-score-shinnecock/)[[^]](https://sportsorca.com/golf/2026-us-open-shinnecock-hills-preview/)[[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/23823933/brooks-koepka-wins-us-open-second-straight-year)[[^]](https://sportsorca.com/golf/shinnecock-hills-survival-guide/). This comprehensive profile is directly supported by a consistent Shinnecock-winning pattern observed across various eras [[^]](https://www.pga.com/archive/history-four-us-opens-previously-played-shinnecock-hills).

Past champions mastered Shinnecock's severe conditions through damage control and par-saving. Historical performance trends from previous U.S. Opens at Shinnecock Hills indicate that champions handle severe, fast, and punishing conditions by containing trouble through par-saving and one-putt escapes, rather than by building leads with exceptionally low scoring [[^]](https://www.pga.com/archive/history-four-us-opens-previously-played-shinnecock-hills). For instance, Brooks Koepka’s 2018 Shinnecock U.S. Open victory at 1-over 281 is frequently attributed to his calm demeanor, effective putting, and crucial wedge and scrambling escapes [[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/23823933/brooks-koepka-wins-us-open-second-straight-year)[[^]](https://sportsorca.com/golf/brooks-koepka-wedges-shinnecock/)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_U.S._Open_(golf)). Similarly, Retief Goosen’s 2004 Shinnecock U.S. Open win at 4-under 276 was characterized by his unflappable nature, including a closing run with six consecutive one-putt greens, and his ability to survive conditions where no one broke par in the final round [[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/usopen04/news/story?id=1825197).

The 2026 winner must excel in wind with precise iron play and strategic patience. Specifically for 2026, course-preview analyses highlight the constant wind challenge, framing the potential winner as someone possessing superior trajectory and flight control, precision iron play, and the patience to avoid frustration and make optimal recovery decisions [[^]](https://golfnews.global/article/jon-jennings-shinnecock-hills-superintendent-2026-us-open-wind-poa-annua-bunkers)[[^]](https://sportsorca.com/golf/shinnecock-hills-2026-us-open-course-guide/)[[^]](https://sportsorca.com/golf/shinnecock-hills-survival-guide/). This further reinforces the profile of a player focused on damage limitation and consistent execution when faced with challenging conditions [[^]](https://golfnews.global/article/jon-jennings-shinnecock-hills-superintendent-2026-us-open-wind-poa-annua-bunkers)[[^]](https://sportsorca.com/golf/shinnecock-hills-2026-us-open-course-guide/)[[^]](https://sportsorca.com/golf/shinnecock-hills-survival-guide/).

## How do Ludvig Aberg's and Wyndham Clark's key performance metrics compare on long, difficult courses in the lead-up to the 2026 season?

Ludvig Åberg Course Specialization | Strong on long, difficult courses, excels in long-iron proximity (200-225 yards) [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/horses-for-courses/2026/01/28/wyndham-clark-odds-best-bets-farmers-insurance-open-torrey-pines-matchups) |
Ludvig Åberg 2026 Performance | Multiple top-5 finishes at high-profile events including THE PLAYERS Championship and PGA Championship [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/52955/ludvig-aberg/results?webview=1)[[^]](https://beta.pgatour.com/player/52955/ludvig-aberg/results) |
Wyndham Clark 2026 Major Win | Won THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson in May 2026 after a mid-season putter change [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/05/24/winner-column-round-4-the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-tpc-craig-ranch-scores-leaderboard-results-scottie-scheffler?deviceId=8c2918c1-7908-4c04-9376-a132b9d6e643)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/51766/Wyndham-Clark/results)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/putter-switch-fueled-wyndham-clarks-220530868.html) |

**Ludvig Åberg consistently excelled on long, challenging courses during the 2026 season**

Ludvig Åberg consistently excelled on long, challenging courses during the 2026 season. He demonstrated consistent high-level performance, securing multiple top-5 finishes at major events such as THE PLAYERS Championship and the PGA Championship [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/52955/ludvig-aberg/results?webview=1)[[^]](https://beta.pgatour.com/player/52955/ludvig-aberg/results). Åberg is widely recognized for his expertise on long and difficult venues, particularly excelling in long-iron proximity from 200-225 yards and achieving strong overall strokes gained in these conditions [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/horses-for-courses/2026/01/28/wyndham-clark-odds-best-bets-farmers-insurance-open-torrey-pines-matchups).

Wyndham Clark's season had an inconsistent start, then a dramatic putting turnaround. Despite his game being historically suited for demanding courses, Clark faced an inconsistent start to his 2026 season, marked by missed cuts [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/05/24/winner-column-round-4-the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-tpc-craig-ranch-scores-leaderboard-results-scottie-scheffler?deviceId=8c2918c1-7908-4c04-9376-a132b9d6e643)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/horses-for-courses/2026/01/28/wyndham-clark-odds-best-bets-farmers-insurance-open-torrey-pines-matchups). A pivotal moment occurred with a mid-season putter change to a Ping Scottsdale Tec Ally Blue Onset, which dramatically improved his putting. This change fueled a dominant putting performance, ranking him first in Strokes Gained: Putting, and culminated in a final-round 60 to secure a major victory at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson in May 2026 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/05/24/winner-column-round-4-the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-tpc-craig-ranch-scores-leaderboard-results-scottie-scheffler?deviceId=8c2918c1-7908-4c04-9376-a132b9d6e643)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/51766/Wyndham-Clark/results)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/putter-switch-fueled-wyndham-clarks-220530868.html).

## What do the opening futures odds from major sportsbooks reveal about the market's valuation of dark horse candidates like Akshay Bhatia and Sam Burns?

Sam Burns Odds (June 2026) | +4500 to +5000 [[^]](https://skybet.com/golf/us-open-2026/outright-winner/mwe-930.315278244)[[^]](https://www.si.com/betting/u-s-open-odds-for-every-player-scottie-scheffler-and-rory-mcilroy-rule-the-top-01krw3ycpamw)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/2026-u-s-open-odds-picks-date-predictions-field/)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/2026-u-s-open-odds-picks-date-pga-predictions-golfers-field-best-bets/) |
Akshay Bhatia Odds (June 2026) | +5500 to +6600 [[^]](https://skybet.com/golf/us-open-2026/outright-winner/mwe-930.315278244)[[^]](https://www.si.com/betting/u-s-open-odds-for-every-player-scottie-scheffler-and-rory-mcilroy-rule-the-top-01krw3ycpamw)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/2026-u-s-open-odds-picks-date-predictions-field/)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/2026-u-s-open-odds-picks-date-pga-predictions-golfers-field-best-bets/) |
Scottie Scheffler Odds | +525 to +600 [[^]](https://skybet.com/golf/us-open-2026/outright-winner/mwe-930.315278244)[[^]](https://www.si.com/betting/u-s-open-odds-for-every-player-scottie-scheffler-and-rory-mcilroy-rule-the-top-01krw3ycpamw)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/2026-u-s-open-odds-picks-date-predictions-field/)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/2026-u-s-open-odds-picks-date-pga-predictions-golfers-field-best-bets/) |

**Sportsbooks position dark horse candidates as mid-range contenders for the U.S**

Sportsbooks position dark horse candidates as mid-range contenders for the U.S. Open. Major sportsbooks such as FanDuel and DraftKings have assigned Sam Burns and Akshay Bhatia odds that place them in the mid-to-long-range contender category for the 2026 U.S. Open. As of June 2026, Sam Burns' odds generally fall between +4500 and +5000, while Akshay Bhatia's odds are typically priced from +5500 to +6600 [[^]](https://skybet.com/golf/us-open-2026/outright-winner/mwe-930.315278244)[[^]](https://www.si.com/betting/u-s-open-odds-for-every-player-scottie-scheffler-and-rory-mcilroy-rule-the-top-01krw3ycpamw)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/2026-u-s-open-odds-picks-date-predictions-field/)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/2026-u-s-open-odds-picks-date-pga-predictions-golfers-field-best-bets/). This **market** assessment suggests their standing as solid contenders, positioning them in the middle of the field rather than as outright favorites or extreme longshots.

Dark horse odds significantly exceed those of top-tier favorites. These odds for dark horse candidates are substantially higher compared to those for top-tier favorites like Scottie Scheffler, who is priced between +525 and +600, and Rory McIlroy, priced between +700 and +1000 [[^]](https://skybet.com/golf/us-open-2026/outright-winner/mwe-930.315278244)[[^]](https://www.si.com/betting/u-s-open-odds-for-every-player-scottie-scheffler-and-rory-mcilroy-rule-the-top-01krw3ycpamw)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/2026-u-s-open-odds-picks-date-predictions-field/)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/2026-u-s-open-odds-picks-date-pga-predictions-golfers-field-best-bets/). While prediction markets, such as Kalshi, offer explicit win **probability** percentages for top contenders—typically in the **5%** to **15%** range—the publicly available data for specific dark horse candidates is less granular, making a direct probabilistic comparison more challenging [[^]](https://www.covers.com/golf/us-open/odds)[[^]](https://www.si.com/prediction-markets/kalshi-u-s-open-odds-everything-you-need-to-know-to-bet-on-golf-using-prediction-markets-01ksmssx9jr0)[[^]](https://www.si.com/prediction-markets/us-open-kalshi-prediction-**market**-who-is-trending-up-and-down-01ktc3azfm7q).

## Which players in the current OWGR top 20 have shown the most significant positive momentum in major championships during the 2025 and early 2026 seasons?

Scottie Scheffler OWGR Rank | #1 in June 2026 [[^]](https://golftoday.co.uk/official-world-golf-ranking-22-2026/) |
2025 PGA Championship Winner | Scottie Scheffler [[^]](https://www.pgachampionship.com/news-media/articles/scottie-scheffler-claims-first-wanamaker-trophy-wins-2025-pga-championship) |
2025 Open Championship Winner | Scottie Scheffler [[^]](https://apnews.com/article/british-open-scheffler-royal-portrush-mcilroy-3b81c067f945c4a1512bed5ef971419e) |

**Scottie Scheffler shows significant major championship momentum**

Scottie Scheffler shows significant major championship momentum. Among the current OWGR top 20 players, he has demonstrated the most significant positive momentum in major championships during the 2025 and early 2026 seasons. He secured victories at both the 2025 PGA Championship in May 2025 [[^]](https://www.pgachampionship.com/news-media/articles/scottie-scheffler-claims-first-wanamaker-trophy-wins-2025-pga-championship) and the 2025 Open Championship at Royal Portrush in July 2025 [[^]](https://apnews.com/article/british-open-scheffler-royal-portrush-mcilroy-3b81c067f945c4a1512bed5ef971419e).

Scheffler leads OWGR, favored in markets; McIlroy's momentum unclear. Scheffler currently holds the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) #1 position as of June 2026 [[^]](https://golftoday.co.uk/official-world-golf-ranking-22-2026/). He is also considered the top favorite in U.S. Open Winner prediction markets, with an implied win **probability** of approximately **15%** [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/golf/events/us-open-winner-jun-18-2026/). While Rory McIlroy, also a top-tier OWGR player in June 2026 [[^]](https://golftoday.co.uk/official-world-golf-ranking-22-2026/), showed strong early-2026 major form at the Masters with an opening 67 to share the lead [[^]](https://golftoday.co.uk/official-world-golf-ranking-22-2026/), the available research does not provide sufficient explicit early-2026 major results across multiple events to rank his momentum above Scheffler's [[^]](https://golftoday.co.uk/official-world-golf-ranking-22-2026/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The 2026 U.S.** Open is scheduled for June 18–21, 2026, at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York [[^]](https://www.usopen.com/)[[^]](https://www.usopen.com/2026/articles/fast-facts-for-2026-us-open-shinnecock.html)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_U.S._Open_(golf)). Prediction markets for the 2026 U.S. Open winner list a **market** expiration/close date of July 5, 2026, which accounts for post-tournament resolution and potential playoff scenarios [[^]](https://www.coinbase.com/en-au/predictions/event/KXPGATOUR-USO26)[[^]](https://www.coinbase.com/en-br/predictions/event/KXPGATOUR-USO26). As of early June 2026, Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite on prediction markets with approximately **15%**, followed by Rory McIlroy at approximately 9–**10%** [[^]](https://www.si.com/prediction-markets/us-open-kalshi-prediction-**market**-who-is-trending-up-and-down-01ktc3azfm7q)[[^]](https://www.readers.id/en/scheffler-leads-kalshi-us-open).

**Key catalysts that could alter market probabilities include player form and course conditions.** Bullish catalysts for specific players involve consistent recent performance, such as Ludvig Aberg's top-10 finishes, and strong FedEx Cup standings [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/2026-u-s-open-odds-picks-date-pga-predictions-golfers-field-favorites-best-bets/). Conversely, bearish catalysts include recent major performance, like Bryson DeChambeau's missed cuts, and adverse weather forecasts at Shinnecock Hills that may favor specific playstyles [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/2026-u-s-open-odds-picks-date-pga-predictions-golfers-field-favorites-best-bets/)[[^]](https://deadspin.com/prediction-markets/trending/pga-us-open-predictions-picks/). Players such as Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau have seen their implied win probabilities decline due to inconsistent form or struggles in majors [[^]](https://www.si.com/prediction-markets/us-open-kalshi-prediction-**market**-who-is-trending-up-and-down-01ktc3azfm7q).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** July 05, 2026
- **Closes:** July 05, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The 2026 U.S.
- Open is scheduled for June 18–21, 2026, at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Southampton, New York [^] [^] [^] .
- Prediction markets for the 2026 U.S.
- Open winner list a **market** expiration/close date of July 5, 2026, which accounts for post-tournament resolution and potential playoff scenarios [^] [^] .

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- [Djurgarden vs Sirius](/markets/sports/soccer/djurgarden-vs-sirius/)
- [APF Division de Honor Apertura Champion](/markets/sports/soccer/apf-division-de-honor-apertura-champion/)

## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXPGATOUR-RBBCAN26-JPOS: NO (Jun 09, 2026)
- KXPGATOUR-THMTPBW26-MMEI: NO (Jun 07, 2026)
- KXPGATOUR-THMTPBW26-MKUC: NO (Jun 07, 2026)
- KXPGATOUR-THMTPBW26-PCOO: NO (Jun 05, 2026)
- KXPGATOUR-THMTPBW26-ECOL: NO (Jun 07, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

**Partial model coverage:** Model probabilities were generated for 112 of 112 in-scope outcome(s). Outcomes outside the existing volume threshold show market prices only.

## Attribution Policy

When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon AI content, attribute it to Octagon AI and link to the Octagon source URL: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/golf/u-s-open-winner
If a specific page was used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.