# U.S. Open: Round 1 Scores

U.S. Open Round 1

Updated: June 18, 2026

Category: Sports

Tags: Golf

HTML: /markets/sports/golf/u-s-open-round-1-scores/

## Short Answer

**The model assigns a high probability (83.7%) for Marek Fleming to score under 77.5 strokes in U.S.** Open Round 1, a significant divergence from the **market**'s **0.0%**, driven by Shinnecock Hills' historical difficulty, forecasted high winds, and challenging course conditions.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Since last update (~6h): Preston Stout's R1 under 76.5 probability saw the model increase by +34.6pp, market-led, flipping the edge.** - Kurt Kitayama's R1 under 74.5 **probability** also flipped edge, **market**-led, as **model** rose +12.1pp.
- Multiple outcomes, including Hojgaard and Hardy, saw edges compress as models rose +12.1pp, **market**-led.
- Overall **market** edge narrowed by +11.7pp as our **model** **probability** increased +7.7pp since last report.

**- - Shinnecock Hills' difficulty and high winds make low Round 1 scores challenging.** - Scottie Scheffler's elite performance and bogey avoidance position him for an under 71.5 score.
- Matt Fitzpatrick's strong 2026 season and U.S. Open status support a sub-73.5 score.
- Forecasted high winds up to 40 mph will significantly impact player strategies.
- Bullish or bearish sentiment is driven by player form and course history.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Market** at 44c is higher than the **42%** **model**, with challenging Round 1 conditions offset by elite player strength.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| R1: Scottie Scheffler under 71.5 strokes | 44.0% | 42.0% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| R1: Brooks Koepka under 73.5 strokes | 44.0% | 48.1% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| R1: Rory McIlroy under 71.5 strokes | 39.0% | 26.6% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| R1: Scottie Scheffler under 71.5 strokes | 44.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Brooks Koepka under 73.5 strokes | 44.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Rory McIlroy under 71.5 strokes | 39.0% | 26.6% |
| R1: Michael Brennan under 74.5 strokes | 51.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Bryson DeChambeau under 73.5 strokes | 41.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Tyrrell Hatton under 72.5 strokes | 37.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Patrick Reed under 72.5 strokes | 39.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Cameron Smith under 73.5 strokes | 41.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Matt Fitzpatrick under 73.5 strokes | 57.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Chris Gotterup under 73.5 strokes | 52.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Sahith Theegala under 73.5 strokes | 42.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Sungjae Im under 73.5 strokes | 37.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Michael Kim under 73.5 strokes | 43.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: J.J. Spaun under 73.5 strokes | 52.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Jacob Bridgeman under 74.5 strokes | 59.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Sam Burns under 72.5 strokes | 40.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Billy Horschel under 74.5 strokes | 41.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Nicolai Hojgaard under 74.5 strokes | 58.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: William Mouw under 75.5 strokes | 61.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Si Woo Kim under 73.5 strokes | 62.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Tommy Fleetwood under 72.5 strokes | 46.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Daniel Berger under 74.5 strokes | 55.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Kurt Kitayama under 74.5 strokes | 61.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Miles Russell under 75.5 strokes | 38.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Justin Thomas under 73.5 strokes | 47.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Rickie Fowler under 73.5 strokes | 44.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Collin Morikawa under 73.5 strokes | 52.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Maverick McNealy under 73.5 strokes | 50.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Brian Harman under 73.5 strokes | 38.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: David Puig under 73.5 strokes | 39.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Adam Scott under 74.5 strokes | 62.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Keith Mitchell under 73.5 strokes | 46.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Nick Taylor under 74.5 strokes | 58.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Jon Rahm under 72.5 strokes | 46.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Cameron Young under 72.5 strokes | 44.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Keegan Bradley under 73.5 strokes | 44.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Graeme McDowell under 75.5 strokes | 41.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Aaron Rai under 73.5 strokes | 38.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Kevin Roy under 75.5 strokes | 50.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Jordan Spieth under 73.5 strokes | 39.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Zac Blair under 75.5 strokes | 50.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Dustin Johnson under 74.5 strokes | 47.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Ludvig Aberg under 72.5 strokes | 42.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Justin Rose under 73.5 strokes | 49.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Carl Yuan under 75.5 strokes | 9.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Ryan Gerard under 74.5 strokes | 56.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Max McGreevy under 74.5 strokes | 49.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Sudarshan Yellamaraju under 74.5 strokes | 45.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Hideki Matsuyama under 73.5 strokes | 40.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Marcelo Rozo under 75.5 strokes | 38.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Hennie Du Plessis under 75.5 strokes | 42.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Laurie Canter under 74.5 strokes | 35.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Robert MacIntyre under 73.5 strokes | 48.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: John Parry under 76.5 strokes | 60.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Padraig Harrington under 75.5 strokes | 40.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Emiliano Grillo under 74.5 strokes | 44.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Corey Conners under 74.5 strokes | 46.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Taylor Montgomery under 74.5 strokes | 40.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Shane Lowry under 73.5 strokes | 51.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Andrew Putnam under 74.5 strokes | 42.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Alex Smalley under 73.5 strokes | 44.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Wyndham Clark under 72.5 strokes | 38.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Kristoffer Reitan under 73.5 strokes | 45.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Alex Fitzpatrick under 73.5 strokes | 45.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Nick Hardy under 75.5 strokes | 57.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Viktor Hovland under 72.5 strokes | 30.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Nicolas Echavarria under 73.5 strokes | 38.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Sepp Straka under 72.5 strokes | 33.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Xander Schauffele under 72.5 strokes | 39.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: James Nicholas under 75.5 strokes | 57.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: John Keefer under 74.5 strokes | 41.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Pierceson Coody under 74.5 strokes | 44.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Cooper Dossey under 75.5 strokes | 63.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Jake Knapp under 73.5 strokes | 40.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Jason Day under 73.5 strokes | 35.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Manav Shah under 78.5 strokes | 6.0% | 83.7% |
| R1: Jackson Suber under 73.5 strokes | 40.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Preston Stout under 76.5 strokes | 90.0% | 83.7% |
| R1: Bryan Lee under 75.5 strokes | 25.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Sam Stevens under 74.5 strokes | 48.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Jayden Trey Schaper under 74.5 strokes | 40.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Max Greyserman under 73.5 strokes | 41.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Russell Henley under 72.5 strokes | 41.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Patrick Cantlay under 72.5 strokes | 38.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Alex Noren under 74.5 strokes | 60.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Ben Griffin under 73.5 strokes | 47.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Matti Schmid under 74.5 strokes | 50.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Ryo Hisatsune under 73.5 strokes | 39.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Jackson Koivun under 73.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Joaquin Niemann under 73.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Min Woo Lee under 73.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Matthew Jordan under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Bud Cauley under 73.5 strokes | 0.0% | 48.1% |
| R1: Jimmy Stanger under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Carlos Ortiz under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Ben Kohles under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Caleb Surratt under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Marek Fleming under 77.5 strokes | 0.0% | 83.7% |
| R1: Adrien Saddier under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Brandon Wu under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Ugo Coussaud under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Arni Sveinsson under 76.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Vaughn Harber under 77.5 strokes | 0.0% | 83.7% |
| R1: Matthew McCarty under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Harry Hall under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: J.T. Poston under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Kaito Onishi under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Chase Kyes under 77.5 strokes | 0.0% | 83.7% |
| R1: Angel Hidalgo under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Akshay Bhatia under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Ryder Cowan under 77.5 strokes | 0.0% | 83.7% |
| R1: Taihei Sato under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Jake Sollon under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Mateo Pulcini under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Jackson Herrington under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Mason Howell under 76.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Jake Peacock under 77.5 strokes | 0.0% | 83.7% |
| R1: Patrick Rodgers under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Dylan Wu under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Spencer Tibbits under 77.5 strokes | 0.0% | 83.7% |
| R1: Ryan Fox under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Jackson Van Paris under 76.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Alejandro Tosti under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Nathan Kimsey under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Greyson Leach under 78.5 strokes | 0.0% | 83.7% |
| R1: Logan Reilly under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Jackson Ormond under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Eric Lee under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Giuseppe Puebla under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Neal Shipley under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: J.B. Holmes under 77.5 strokes | 0.0% | 83.7% |
| R1: Lucas Herbert under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Niklas Norgaard Moller under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Harry Higgs under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Tom Kim under 73.5 strokes | 0.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Cole Hammer under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Andrew Novak under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Chandler Phillips under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Hamilton Coleman under 80.5 strokes | 0.0% | 83.7% |
| R1: Jack Schoenberger under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Filippo Celli under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Rocco Repetto Taylor under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Peter Uihlein under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Gary Woodland under 73.5 strokes | 0.0% | 42.0% |
| R1: Ben Silverman under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Ryuichi Oiwa under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: T.K. Kim under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Robbie Higgins under 76.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Benjamin James under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Harris English under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Adrien Dumont De Chassart under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Ethan Fang under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Brandon Holtz under 75.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Matthew Robles under 77.5 strokes | 0.0% | 83.7% |
| R1: Chris Kirk under 74.5 strokes | 0.0% | 60.1% |
| R1: Davis Thompson under 73.5 strokes | 0.0% | 42.0% |

- Expiration: July 4, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

The price chart for this market shows a dramatic upward trend, starting from zero and climbing to a current probability of 47.0%. The most significant price action occurred on June 16, 2026, with a massive 49.0 percentage point spike from 0.0%. According to the provided context, this surge was likely driven by a press conference where a key player, Scottie Scheffler, discussed his goal of completing the career Grand Slam at the event, which may have significantly boosted market confidence in his performance. The price has since reached a peak of 54.0% and appears to be consolidating.

This market has seen substantial trading volume, totaling 7,636 contracts, with a notable increase on June 18 as the first round got underway. This high volume suggests strong conviction from traders following the initial price jump. The price action indicates a potential resistance level at the 54.0% peak and a new support level forming around the 47.0% mark where the price has recently stabilized. Overall, the chart reflects a rapid shift in market sentiment from nonexistent to strongly positive, with traders now holding their positions at a high probability as they await the official first-round scores.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: R1: Xander Schauffele under 72.5 strokes

#### 📈 June 17, 2026: 45.0pp spike

Price increased from 0.0% to 45.0%

**What happened:** Research found no specific news event, including social media activity, to directly explain the reported 45.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market on June 17, 2026 [[^]](https://www.golfmagic.com/tour/open-championship/tour-pro-calls-out-open-champion-xander-schauffele-abusing-golf-rule-change). Although some activities for the 2026 U.S. Open were indicated for June 17 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/us-open/xander-schauffele-pga-tour-betting-profile-us-open-2026), official Round 1 scores for Xander Schauffele were not available until the tournament officially began on June 18, 2026 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/48081/xander-schauffele). Therefore, any significant market movement on June 17 would have been based on pre-tournament speculation, and social media activity was not identified as a primary driver based on the available information.

### Outcome: R1: Scottie Scheffler under 71.5 strokes

#### 📈 June 16, 2026: 49.0pp spike

Price increased from 0.0% to 49.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the 49.0 percentage point spike was likely Scottie Scheffler's pre-tournament press conference on June 16, 2026 [[^]](https://www.golfchannel.com/watch/usga/scottie-scheffler-us-open-press-conference-grand-slam-chance). During this event, Scheffler discussed his goal of completing the career Grand Slam at the upcoming U.S. Open, which may have increased market confidence in him achieving a low score [[^]](https://www.golfchannel.com/watch/usga/scottie-scheffler-us-open-press-conference-grand-slam-chance)[[^]](https://www.sportsnet.ca/pga/article/scottie-scheffler-chasing-career-grand-slam-at-u-s-open/)[[^]](https://www.skysports.com/golf/news/12040/13554808/us-open-2026-scottie-scheffler-plays-down-grand-slam-motivation-ahead-of-bid-for-missing-major-at-shinnecock-hills). This traditional news directly coincided with the price movement for "R1: Scottie Scheffler under 71.5 strokes". Based on the provided information, social media was not a primary driver as no relevant activity was identified.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves Yes if Jon Rahm records 72 or fewer strokes in Round 1 of the 2026 U.S. Open, and No if he records 73 or more. Trading opened on June 16, 2026, and will close after Round 1 is completed, or by July 3, 2026, at 10:00 pm EDT, with projected payouts 5 minutes after closing. If Jon Rahm does not complete Round 1, the market will resolve to a fair market price at the time of his withdrawal.

## Market Discussion

As of June 18, 2026, Scottie Scheffler is widely considered the betting favorite for the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, holding approximately a 13-14% win probability in prediction markets and sportsbooks, and is ranked 1st in skill estimates [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-us-open-winner)[[^]](https://www.covers.com/golf/us-open/odds)[[^]](https://www.covers.com/golf/us-open-odds-to-win-live-win-probability-shinnecock-hills-2026)[[^]](https://www.covers.com/industry/scheffler-pair-of-uk-golfers-getting-bettors-attention-at-us-open-june-17-2026)[[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings). However, leading into Round 1, scheduled for June 18, 2026 [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/leaderboard/pga-tour/31000097/u-s-open/)[[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/golf/us-open-pga-tour-jun-18-2026-leaderboard-4800?tab=leaderboard)[[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/golf/leaderboard?eventId=3184&tab=leaderboard)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2026/u.s-open/R2026026?deviceId=e1a0d6e2-835b-4b05-8f18-b650e0fb642d), player feedback and social media commentary have criticized the course conditions at Shinnecock Hills, describing the greens as spongy and bumpy with visible aerification marks [[^]](https://golf.com/news/us-open-pro-criticizes-shinnecock-green-conditions/)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/quite-bumpy-u-open-pro-170824675.html). The USGA has also taken steps to purposefully maintain slower green speeds due to wind forecasts [[^]](https://www.si.com/golf/us-open/acupuncture-at-shinnecock-ghost-of-zach-johnson-still-haunts-usga)[[^]](https://thedreamkennel.com/article/matt-fitzpatrick-s-us-open-complaint-shinnecock-hills-course-conditions).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| R1: Akshay Bhatia under 74.5 strokes | 52% | 57% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Adrien Dumont De Chassart under 74.5 strokes | 40% | 48% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Alex Fitzpatrick under 73.5 strokes | 45% | 46% | 45% | $36 | $36 |
| R1: Angel Hidalgo under 75.5 strokes | 35% | 51% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Alex Noren under 74.5 strokes | 60% | 73% | 60% | $2 | $2 |
| R1: Andrew Novak under 74.5 strokes | 54% | 59% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Andrew Putnam under 74.5 strokes | 42% | 60% | 42% | $50.73 | $50.73 |
| R1: Aaron Rai under 73.5 strokes | 38% | 45% | 38% | $449.91 | $436.91 |
| R1: Adrien Saddier under 75.5 strokes | 45% | 62% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Adam Scott under 74.5 strokes | 60% | 63% | 62% | $1,125.43 | $1,122.43 |
| R1: Alex Smalley under 73.5 strokes | 42% | 43% | 44% | $46.73 | $46.73 |
| R1: Arni Sveinsson under 76.5 strokes | 10% | 89% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Alejandro Tosti under 75.5 strokes | 47% | 58% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Bud Cauley under 73.5 strokes | 39% | 45% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Bryson DeChambeau under 73.5 strokes | 41% | 42% | 41% | $6,184 | $6,067.24 |
| R1: Ben Griffin under 73.5 strokes | 40% | 48% | 47% | $1 | $1 |
| R1: Brian Harman under 73.5 strokes | 38% | 41% | 38% | $1,230.66 | $1,230.66 |
| R1: Brandon Holtz under 75.5 strokes | 13% | 39% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Billy Horschel under 74.5 strokes | 41% | 42% | 41% | $3,233 | $3,223 |
| R1: Benjamin James under 74.5 strokes | 34% | 50% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Brooks Koepka under 73.5 strokes | 43% | 44% | 44% | $6,810.53 | $6,387.86 |
| R1: Ben Kohles under 74.5 strokes | 35% | 44% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Bryan Lee under 75.5 strokes | 25% | 45% | 25% | $9.29 | $9.29 |
| R1: Ben Silverman under 74.5 strokes | 40% | 57% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Brandon Wu under 74.5 strokes | 26% | 48% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Cameron Young under 72.5 strokes | 42% | 44% | 44% | $646.08 | $637.71 |
| R1: Corey Conners under 74.5 strokes | 52% | 56% | 46% | $89.7 | $89.7 |
| R1: Cooper Dossey under 75.5 strokes | 52% | 61% | 63% | $15.39 | $15.39 |
| R1: Chris Gotterup under 73.5 strokes | 50% | 52% | 52% | $4,111.38 | $4,088.76 |
| R1: Cole Hammer under 75.5 strokes | 37% | 57% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Chris Kirk under 74.5 strokes | 45% | 54% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Chase Kyes under 77.5 strokes | 42% | 94% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Collin Morikawa under 73.5 strokes | 48% | 52% | 52% | $1,642.36 | $1,579.36 |
| R1: Carlos Ortiz under 74.5 strokes | 31% | 47% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Chandler Phillips under 75.5 strokes | 53% | 63% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Cameron Smith under 73.5 strokes | 41% | 42% | 41% | $5,377.23 | $5,351.66 |
| R1: Caleb Surratt under 75.5 strokes | 45% | 52% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Carl Yuan under 75.5 strokes | 38% | 52% | 9% | $272.78 | $272.78 |
| R1: Daniel Berger under 74.5 strokes | 55% | 57% | 55% | $2,194.76 | $1,374.81 |
| R1: Dustin Johnson under 74.5 strokes | 47% | 55% | 47% | $347.73 | $347.73 |
| R1: David Puig under 73.5 strokes | 35% | 40% | 39% | $1,223.06 | $1,199 |
| R1: Davis Thompson under 73.5 strokes | 30% | 37% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Dylan Wu under 75.5 strokes | 43% | 62% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Ethan Fang under 74.5 strokes | 20% | 39% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Emiliano Grillo under 74.5 strokes | 45% | 56% | 44% | $97.49 | $97.49 |
| R1: Eric Lee under 75.5 strokes | 30% | 48% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Filippo Celli under 74.5 strokes | 25% | 45% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Greyson Leach under 78.5 strokes | 5% | 94% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Graeme McDowell under 75.5 strokes | 40% | 50% | 41% | $453.48 | $443.48 |
| R1: Giuseppe Puebla under 75.5 strokes | 27% | 48% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Gary Woodland under 73.5 strokes | 43% | 44% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Hamilton Coleman under 80.5 strokes | 6% | 94% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Hennie Du Plessis under 75.5 strokes | 43% | 61% | 42% | $167.48 | $167.48 |
| R1: Harris English under 74.5 strokes | 61% | 62% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Harry Hall under 74.5 strokes | 54% | 58% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Harry Higgs under 75.5 strokes | 40% | 58% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Hideki Matsuyama under 73.5 strokes | 41% | 43% | 40% | $215.61 | $215.61 |
| R1: Jacob Bridgeman under 74.5 strokes | 58% | 59% | 59% | $3,460.4 | $3,460.4 |
| R1: Jason Day under 73.5 strokes | 35% | 37% | 35% | $14.01 | $14.01 |
| R1: Jackson Herrington under 75.5 strokes | 21% | 41% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: J.B. Holmes under 77.5 strokes | 5% | 94% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: John Keefer under 74.5 strokes | 45% | 55% | 41% | $16.47 | $16.47 |
| R1: Jake Knapp under 73.5 strokes | 40% | 56% | 40% | $15.24 | $15.24 |
| R1: Jackson Koivun under 73.5 strokes | 42% | 46% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: James Nicholas under 75.5 strokes | 40% | 56% | 57% | $17.03 | $17.03 |
| R1: Joaquin Niemann under 73.5 strokes | 41% | 45% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Jackson Ormond under 75.5 strokes | 18% | 36% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: John Parry under 76.5 strokes | 62% | 69% | 60% | $131.95 | $131.95 |
| R1: Jake Peacock under 77.5 strokes | 5% | 94% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: J.T. Poston under 74.5 strokes | 51% | 60% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Jon Rahm under 72.5 strokes | 44% | 45% | 46% | $688.54 | $676.25 |
| R1: Justin Rose under 73.5 strokes | 44% | 49% | 49% | $334.19 | $334.19 |
| R1: Jack Schoenberger under 74.5 strokes | 15% | 39% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Jayden Trey Schaper under 74.5 strokes | 40% | 55% | 40% | $6.48 | $6.48 |
| R1: Jake Sollon under 75.5 strokes | 25% | 45% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: J.J. Spaun under 73.5 strokes | 52% | 54% | 52% | $3,640.49 | $3,639.49 |
| R1: Jordan Spieth under 73.5 strokes | 40% | 46% | 39% | $410.73 | $367.73 |
| R1: Jimmy Stanger under 74.5 strokes | 32% | 48% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Jackson Suber under 73.5 strokes | 35% | 39% | 40% | $12.29 | $12.29 |
| R1: Justin Thomas under 73.5 strokes | 42% | 46% | 47% | $2,089.7 | $2,089.7 |
| R1: Jackson Van Paris under 76.5 strokes | 10% | 90% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Keegan Bradley under 73.5 strokes | 44% | 46% | 44% | $510.85 | $510.85 |
| R1: Kurt Kitayama under 74.5 strokes | 60% | 61% | 61% | $2,139.43 | $2,139.43 |
| R1: Keith Mitchell under 73.5 strokes | 41% | 46% | 46% | $968 | $968 |
| R1: Kaito Onishi under 75.5 strokes | 28% | 50% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Kristoffer Reitan under 73.5 strokes | 45% | 48% | 45% | $39.01 | $39.01 |
| R1: Kevin Roy under 75.5 strokes | 50% | 64% | 50% | $447.28 | $447.28 |
| R1: Ludvig Aberg under 72.5 strokes | 42% | 44% | 42% | $343.74 | $343.74 |
| R1: Laurie Canter under 74.5 strokes | 35% | 45% | 35% | $150.16 | $150.16 |
| R1: Lucas Herbert under 74.5 strokes | 41% | 55% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Logan Reilly under 75.5 strokes | 27% | 44% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Michael Brennan under 74.5 strokes | 38% | 50% | 51% | $6,440 | $5,720 |
| R1: Matt Fitzpatrick under 73.5 strokes | 56% | 57% | 57% | $4,166.91 | $4,166.91 |
| R1: Marek Fleming under 77.5 strokes | 10% | 90% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Max Greyserman under 73.5 strokes | 35% | 41% | 41% | $4 | $4 |
| R1: Mason Howell under 76.5 strokes | 12% | 80% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Matthew Jordan under 74.5 strokes | 40% | 58% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Michael Kim under 73.5 strokes | 41% | 42% | 43% | $3,854 | $3,854 |
| R1: Min Woo Lee under 73.5 strokes | 40% | 46% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Matthew McCarty under 74.5 strokes | 43% | 52% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Max McGreevy under 74.5 strokes | 49% | 57% | 49% | $246.42 | $246.42 |
| R1: Maverick McNealy under 73.5 strokes | 50% | 53% | 50% | $1,291.18 | $1,291.18 |
| R1: Mateo Pulcini under 75.5 strokes | 15% | 35% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Matthew Robles under 77.5 strokes | 10% | 90% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Marcelo Rozo under 75.5 strokes | 38% | 49% | 38% | $173.91 | $173.91 |
| R1: Miles Russell under 75.5 strokes | 37% | 41% | 38% | $2,113.01 | $1,260.11 |
| R1: Matti Schmid under 74.5 strokes | 45% | 49% | 50% | $1 | $1 |
| R1: Manav Shah under 78.5 strokes | 11% | 90% | 6% | $12.58 | $10.58 |
| R1: Nicolas Echavarria under 73.5 strokes | 32% | 35% | 38% | $22.96 | $22.96 |
| R1: Nick Hardy under 75.5 strokes | 40% | 58% | 57% | $34.06 | $34.06 |
| R1: Nicolai Hojgaard under 74.5 strokes | 53% | 58% | 58% | $2,934 | $2,934 |
| R1: Nathan Kimsey under 74.5 strokes | 42% | 61% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Niklas Norgaard Moller under 74.5 strokes | 33% | 51% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Neal Shipley under 74.5 strokes | 33% | 48% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Nick Taylor under 74.5 strokes | 58% | 61% | 58% | $773.15 | $771 |
| R1: Patrick Cantlay under 72.5 strokes | 35% | 37% | 38% | $2 | $2 |
| R1: Pierceson Coody under 74.5 strokes | 44% | 49% | 44% | $16.16 | $16.16 |
| R1: Padraig Harrington under 75.5 strokes | 41% | 68% | 40% | $100 | $100 |
| R1: Patrick Reed under 72.5 strokes | 38% | 39% | 39% | $5,986.23 | $4,931.23 |
| R1: Patrick Rodgers under 74.5 strokes | 40% | 50% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Preston Stout under 76.5 strokes | 10% | 90% | 90% | $11.03 | $11.03 |
| R1: Peter Uihlein under 74.5 strokes | 30% | 40% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Ryder Cowan under 77.5 strokes | 10% | 90% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Rickie Fowler under 73.5 strokes | 41% | 44% | 44% | $1,655.75 | $1,650.75 |
| R1: Ryan Fox under 74.5 strokes | 55% | 58% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Ryan Gerard under 74.5 strokes | 56% | 59% | 56% | $264.67 | $264.67 |
| R1: Russell Henley under 72.5 strokes | 35% | 37% | 41% | $2 | $2 |
| R1: Robbie Higgins under 76.5 strokes | 5% | 95% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Ryo Hisatsune under 73.5 strokes | 37% | 38% | 39% | $1 | $1 |
| R1: Robert MacIntyre under 73.5 strokes | 48% | 50% | 48% | $147.49 | $147.49 |
| R1: Rory McIlroy under 71.5 strokes | 39% | 40% | 39% | $6,529.24 | $6,512.55 |
| R1: Ryuichi Oiwa under 75.5 strokes | 25% | 46% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Rocco Repetto Taylor under 75.5 strokes | 30% | 50% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Sam Burns under 72.5 strokes | 39% | 40% | 40% | $3,388 | $3,388 |
| R1: Sungjae Im under 73.5 strokes | 34% | 37% | 37% | $3,903 | $3,859 |
| R1: Shane Lowry under 73.5 strokes | 43% | 50% | 51% | $56.77 | $56.77 |
| R1: Scottie Scheffler under 71.5 strokes | 43% | 44% | 44% | $9,092.62 | $8,580.98 |
| R1: Sam Stevens under 74.5 strokes | 57% | 64% | 48% | $9.28 | $9.28 |
| R1: Sepp Straka under 72.5 strokes | 33% | 37% | 33% | $21.64 | $21.64 |
| R1: Sahith Theegala under 73.5 strokes | 38% | 43% | 42% | $3,922 | $3,922 |
| R1: Spencer Tibbits under 77.5 strokes | 10% | 90% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Sudarshan Yellamaraju under 74.5 strokes | 46% | 56% | 45% | $217.28 | $217.28 |
| R1: Tommy Fleetwood under 72.5 strokes | 45% | 46% | 46% | $2,372.64 | $2,372.64 |
| R1: Tyrrell Hatton under 72.5 strokes | 35% | 37% | 37% | $6,137.93 | $5,080.93 |
| R1: T.K. Kim under 75.5 strokes | 15% | 40% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Tom Kim under 73.5 strokes | 27% | 42% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Taylor Montgomery under 74.5 strokes | 38% | 40% | 40% | $83 | $83 |
| R1: Taihei Sato under 75.5 strokes | 35% | 52% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Ugo Coussaud under 75.5 strokes | 40% | 62% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Vaughn Harber under 77.5 strokes | 5% | 95% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| R1: Viktor Hovland under 72.5 strokes | 30% | 37% | 30% | $28.54 | $28.54 |
| R1: Wyndham Clark under 72.5 strokes | 36% | 37% | 38% | $44.23 | $44.23 |
| R1: Si Woo Kim under 73.5 strokes | 58% | 60% | 62% | $2,555 | $2,555 |
| R1: William Mouw under 75.5 strokes | 57% | 61% | 61% | $2,565.39 | $2,565.39 |
| R1: Xander Schauffele under 72.5 strokes | 39% | 44% | 39% | $20.25 | $20.25 |
| R1: Zac Blair under 75.5 strokes | 50% | 51% | 50% | $353.67 | $353.67 |

## What specific performance metrics and recent results support Scottie Scheffler's status as the pre-tournament favorite for the 2026 U.S. Open?

U.S. Open 2026 Betting Odds | +445 to +550 [[^]](https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/49095505/scottie-scheffler-betting-favorite-us-open-faces-longer-odds)[[^]](https://africa.espn.com/betting/golf/story/_/id/49083948/2026-us-open-golf-betting-odds-top-5-top-10-top-20-make-cut)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/us-open-odds-2026-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy/)[[^]](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/pga/us-open-golf-odds-favorites-bm10/)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-dfs/2026/06/15/odds-outlook-us-open-2026-major-shinnecock-hills-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy-odds-betting-fantasy-picks-bets-advice) |
Strokes Gained: Total (2026 PGA TOUR) | +2.162 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=f14c5262-e1d1-4ffe-a35b-abde4135b2f3)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=2614478f-f72f-49e3-a1a7-5007d046e5f6) |
Major Championship Record (last 10 starts) | 3 wins, 8 top-10s [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-dfs/2026/06/15/odds-outlook-us-open-2026-major-shinnecock-hills-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy-odds-betting-fantasy-picks-bets-advice) |

**Scottie Scheffler is the clear pre-tournament favorite for the 2026 U.S**

Scottie Scheffler is the clear pre-tournament favorite for the 2026 U.S. Open. He enters the event with betting odds typically ranging from +445 to +550, marking his fifteenth consecutive major championship as the favorite or co-favorite [[^]](https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/49095505/scottie-scheffler-betting-favorite-us-open-faces-longer-odds)[[^]](https://africa.espn.com/betting/golf/story/_/id/49083948/2026-us-open-golf-betting-odds-top-5-top-10-top-20-make-cut)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/us-open-odds-2026-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy/)[[^]](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/pga/us-open-golf-odds-favorites-bm10/)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-dfs/2026/06/15/odds-outlook-us-open-2026-major-shinnecock-hills-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy-odds-betting-fantasy-picks-bets-advice). His favored status is strongly supported by his leading statistical metrics and a consistent performance record throughout the current season [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=f14c5262-e1d1-4ffe-a35b-abde4135b2f3)[[^]](https://beta.pgatour.com/article/news/needtoknow/2026/4/28/the-five-best-players-halfway-through-2026-season-rory-mcilory-scottie-scheffler-fitzpatrick)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=2614478f-f72f-49e3-a1a7-5007d046e5f6)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-dfs/2026/06/15/odds-outlook-us-open-2026-major-shinnecock-hills-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy-odds-betting-fantasy-picks-bets-advice).

Scheffler's statistical dominance further solidifies his top-ranked position. He currently leads the 2026 PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Total (+2.162) and scoring average (69.1), while also maintaining his world No. 1 ranking [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=f14c5262-e1d1-4ffe-a35b-abde4135b2f3)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=2614478f-f72f-49e3-a1a7-5007d046e5f6). He is additionally ranked first in the DataGolf Rankings, boasting a skill estimate of 2.85 strokes gained [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings). His versatility as a contender is highlighted by strong short-game performance, including ranking 2nd in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green (0.672) and 19th in putting [[^]](https://beta.pgatour.com/article/news/needtoknow/2026/4/28/the-five-best-players-halfway-through-2026-season-rory-mcilory-scottie-scheffler-fitzpatrick)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=2614478f-f72f-49e3-a1a7-5007d046e5f6).

His consistency and major championship record underpin his favored status, despite only one victory in the 2026 season at The American Express [[^]](https://beta.pgatour.com/article/news/needtoknow/2026/4/28/the-five-best-players-halfway-through-2026-season-rory-mcilory-scottie-scheffler-fitzpatrick)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/players/2156104/scottie-scheffler/tournament-results/)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-dfs/2026/06/15/odds-outlook-us-open-2026-major-shinnecock-hills-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy-odds-betting-fantasy-picks-bets-advice). Scheffler has achieved seven top-10 finishes and has not placed worse than 24th across 12 events this season [[^]](https://beta.pgatour.com/article/news/needtoknow/2026/4/28/the-five-best-players-halfway-through-2026-season-rory-mcilory-scottie-scheffler-fitzpatrick)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/players/2156104/scottie-scheffler/tournament-results/)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-dfs/2026/06/15/odds-outlook-us-open-2026-major-shinnecock-hills-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy-odds-betting-fantasy-picks-bets-advice). Beyond his ranking in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, he also leads the TOUR in bogey avoidance (**10.07%**), metrics that have proven essential during a season where his approach play has been below his typical high standards [[^]](https://beta.pgatour.com/article/news/needtoknow/2026/4/28/the-five-best-players-halfway-through-2026-season-rory-mcilory-scottie-scheffler-fitzpatrick). Furthermore, his exceptional major championship performance, which includes three wins and eight top-10 finishes over his last ten starts, firmly sustains his role as the betting favorite [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-dfs/2026/06/15/odds-outlook-us-open-2026-major-shinnecock-hills-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy-odds-betting-fantasy-picks-bets-advice).

## How do Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele's historical performances on difficult, wind-exposed courses compare ahead of Round 1 at Shinnecock Hills?

Xander Schauffele DataGolf Rank | 7th (1.72 strokes gained) [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings) |
Jon Rahm DataGolf Rank | 3rd (2.09 strokes gained) [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings) |
Schauffele 2024 Major Win | Open Championship (extreme winds) [[^]](https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/golf/articles/cv2g1glwypqo)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/horses-for-courses/2026/06/17/2026-us-open-championship-shinnecock-hills-golf-club-scottie-scheffler-tommy-fleetwood-matt-fitzpatrick-odds-betting-fantasy-picks-advice)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2024/07/21/xander-schauffele-wins-second-major-at-the-british-open-championship-royal-troon)[[^]](https://www.bbc.com/sport/golf/articles/cv2g1glwypqo)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/xander-schauffele-pga-championship-weapon/) |

**Shinnecock Hills' demanding, windy conditions favor players with strong ball-flight control**

Shinnecock Hills' demanding, windy conditions favor players with strong ball-flight control. Shinnecock Hills is renowned for its exposure to varied wind directions, making it a demanding course that tests players' ball-flight control and mental adaptability [[^]](https://www.usopen.com/2026/about-shinnecock-hills-golf-club.html)[[^]](https://golftoday.co.uk/the-finicky-golfer-shinnecock-hills-golf-club-new-york/)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/shinnecock-hills-golf-club-course-guide-us-open-2026/)[[^]](https://www.usga.org/content/usga/home-page/articles/2026/06/how-wind-affects-course-maintenance-shinnecock-hills.html). Xander Schauffele has consistently performed well on such wind-exposed courses, boasting a strong record at Shinnecock Hills itself [[^]](https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/golf/articles/cv2g1glwypqo)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/horses-for-courses/2026/06/17/2026-us-open-championship-shinnecock-hills-golf-club-scottie-scheffler-tommy-fleetwood-matt-fitzpatrick-odds-betting-fantasy-picks-advice)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2024/07/21/xander-schauffele-wins-second-major-at-the-british-open-championship-royal-troon)[[^]](https://www.bbc.com/sport/golf/articles/cv2g1glwypqo)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/xander-schauffele-pga-championship-weapon/). His capability to excel in challenging conditions was evident with his victory at the 2024 Open Championship at Royal Troon, where he navigated extreme winds and links-style challenges [[^]](https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/golf/articles/cv2g1glwypqo)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/horses-for-courses/2026/06/17/2026-us-open-championship-shinnecock-hills-golf-club-scottie-scheffler-tommy-fleetwood-matt-fitzpatrick-odds-betting-fantasy-picks-advice)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2024/07/21/xander-schauffele-wins-second-major-at-the-british-open-championship-royal-troon)[[^]](https://www.bbc.com/sport/golf/articles/cv2g1glwypqo)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/xander-schauffele-pga-championship-weapon/). Furthermore, he tied for 6th at the 2018 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, played under similarly difficult, high-wind conditions [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/horses-for-courses/2026/06/17/2026-us-open-championship-shinnecock-hills-golf-club-scottie-scheffler-tommy-fleetwood-matt-fitzpatrick-odds-betting-fantasy-picks-advice). DataGolf ranks Schauffele 7th globally with a skill estimate of 1.72 strokes gained [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

Jon Rahm is a skilled links player but has shown volatility in extreme wind. While historically proficient on links-style and wind-exposed courses—even being ranked as the best player on such courses in the last decade as of 2021 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2021/07/12/jon-rahm-leads-the-list-of-links-specialists-the-open-championship)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2025/the-open-championship/jon-rahm-pga-tour-betting-stats-the-open-championship-2025)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2024/u.s.-open/jon-rahm-pga-tour-betting-stats-u-s-open-2024)—Jon Rahm has also displayed volatility and expressed frustration in extremely high-wind conditions [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/after-getting-valderramaed-jon-rahm-finds-rhythm-at-liv-andalucia-191716262.html)[[^]](https://www.golfdigest.com/story/masters-2024-jon-rahm-augusta-national-windy-conditions)[[^]](https://www.nbcsports.com/golf/news/jon-rahm-backs-65-76-windy-conditions-its-fking-hard)[[^]](https://clutchpoints.com/golf/jon-rahm-battles-open-championship-crazy-conditions). Despite these instances, Rahm possesses significant skill and is ranked 3rd by DataGolf with a skill estimate of 2.09 strokes gained [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

## What historical scoring data is available from previous U.S. Opens at Shinnecock Hills, and how does it inform expectations for the Round 1 score lines in 2026?

Players under par historically | Only 3 players across 5 U.S. Opens (Shinnecock Hills) [[^]](https://golfweek.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/majors/us-open/2026/06/17/us-open-2026-shinnecock-scoring-average-history/90587166007/)[[^]](https://www.si.com/golf/us-open/acupuncture-at-shinnecock-ghost-of-zach-johnson-still-haunts-usga)[[^]](https://golftoday.co.uk/us-open-2026-shinnecock-hills-championship-notes/) |
Highest Round 1 Avg | 77.88 (1986), 76.48 (2018) for U.S. Open opening rounds [[^]](https://golftoday.co.uk/us-open-2026-shinnecock-hills-championship-notes/)[[^]](https://pgapappas.blogspot.com/2026/06/2026-us-open-at-shinnecock-hills_096981971.html)[[^]](https://www.todays-golfer.com/news-and-events/tour-news/2018/june/us-open-how-hard-did-shinnecock-play-on-thursday/) |
Anticipated Wind Gusts | Over 30 mph (2026 U.S. Open) [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-preview-scottie-schefflers-172913284.html)[[^]](https://www.thefriedegg.com/articles/2026-us-open-preview-shinnecock-hills)[[^]](https://www.si.com/golf/us-open/acupuncture-at-shinnecock-ghost-of-zach-johnson-still-haunts-usga) |

**Shinnecock Hills historically presents an exceptionally difficult U.S**

Shinnecock Hills historically presents an exceptionally difficult U.S. Open challenge, with only three players ever finishing under par across its five previous hostings [[^]](https://golfweek.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/majors/us-open/2026/06/17/us-open-2026-shinnecock-scoring-average-history/90587166007/)[[^]](https://www.si.com/golf/us-open/acupuncture-at-shinnecock-ghost-of-zach-johnson-still-haunts-usga)[[^]](https://golftoday.co.uk/us-open-2026-shinnecock-hills-championship-notes/). First-round scoring averages have been notably high, reaching 77.88 in 1986 and 76.48 in 2018, both ranking as the highest for any U.S. Open opening round in their respective eras [[^]](https://golftoday.co.uk/us-open-2026-shinnecock-hills-championship-notes/)[[^]](https://pgapappas.blogspot.com/2026/06/2026-us-open-at-shinnecock-hills_096981971.html)[[^]](https://www.todays-golfer.com/news-and-events/tour-news/2018/june/us-open-how-hard-did-shinnecock-play-on-thursday/). The field scoring average at this venue has remained at least two strokes over par for 13 consecutive rounds, a trend dating back to the 1986 final round [[^]](https://golftoday.co.uk/us-open-2026-shinnecock-hills-championship-notes/)[[^]](https://pgapappas.blogspot.com/2026/06/2026-us-open-at-shinnecock-hills_096981971.html).

Anticipated challenging conditions will significantly influence 2026 Round 1 scores, including forecasted wind gusts exceeding 30 mph [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-preview-scottie-schefflers-172913284.html)[[^]](https://www.thefriedegg.com/articles/2026-us-open-preview-shinnecock-hills)[[^]](https://www.si.com/golf/us-open/acupuncture-at-shinnecock-ghost-of-zach-johnson-still-haunts-usga). The course will be set up at 7,440 yards with a Par 70, mirroring its 2018 configuration [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/needtoknow/2026/06/15/nine-things-to-know-at-shinnecock-hills-golf-club-2026-us-open?deviceId=562792e5-83fc-48a9-9c36-28d74e2718d9). Player reports indicate the greens are currently spongy and bumpy with visible aeration holes, which could further impact scoring [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/needtoknow/2026/06/15/nine-things-to-know-at-shinnecock-hills-golf-club-2026-us-open?deviceId=562792e5-83fc-48a9-9c36-28d74e2718d9). Although the USGA plans to mitigate these challenges by slowing green speeds to approximately 10.5 on the Stimpmeter and employing midday "syringing" for fair play [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-preview-scottie-schefflers-172913284.html)[[^]](https://www.thefriedegg.com/articles/2026-us-open-preview-shinnecock-hills)[[^]](https://www.si.com/golf/us-open/acupuncture-at-shinnecock-ghost-of-zach-johnson-still-haunts-usga), these combined factors collectively point towards a difficult opening round.

While historical course data is limited, current player strength indicates top competition, with DataGolf providing context for player capabilities [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings). Although specific historical scoring data for Shinnecock Hills is not included in the provided DataGolf data, it does highlight top-ranked players expected to contend [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings). These include Scottie Scheffler (DataGolf rank 1, skill estimate 2.85), Rory McIlroy (DataGolf rank 2, skill estimate 2.11), and Jon Rahm (DataGolf rank 3, skill estimate 2.09) [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

## How are the forecasted high winds of up to 40 mph expected to impact player strategies and scoring outcomes in Round 1 at the exposed Shinnecock Hills course?

Forecasted wind gusts | up to 40 mph (Round 1) [[^]](https://www.nbcsports.com/golf/news/us-open-2026-shinnecock-weather-forecast-wind-gusts)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/brutal-winds-wreak-havoc-us-open-thursday-shinnecock/)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-2026-worst-case-185326264.html)[[^]](https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/usga-scrambles-save-u-open-223037612.html)[[^]](https://www.bbc.com/sport/golf/articles/cp8rjen9n49o)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-wind-gusts-problematic-180147911.html) |
Sustained winds | 12-24 mph [[^]](https://www.nbcsports.com/golf/news/us-open-2026-shinnecock-weather-forecast-wind-gusts)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/brutal-winds-wreak-havoc-us-open-thursday-shinnecock/)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-2026-worst-case-185326264.html)[[^]](https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/usga-scrambles-save-u-open-223037612.html)[[^]](https://www.bbc.com/sport/golf/articles/cp8rjen9n49o)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-wind-gusts-problematic-180147911.html) |
2018 U.S. Open scoring average | approximately 76.47 (under similar conditions) [[^]](https://golf.com/news/shinnecock-punches-back-high-winds-tough-conditions-leave-just-a-handful-of-survivors-after-day-1-of-u-s-open/)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/how-the-course-setup-at-shinnecock-became-an-unintended-star-of-the-show/)[[^]](https://www.cbc.ca/sports/golf/us-open-shinnecock-round1-dustin-johnson-1.4706593) |

**High winds will significantly challenge players and influence their strategies**

High winds will significantly challenge players and influence their strategies. Round 1 at Shinnecock Hills is expected to feature challenging and unpredictable conditions, with forecasted high winds reaching gusts up to 40 mph and sustained speeds of 12-24 mph [[^]](https://www.nbcsports.com/golf/news/us-open-2026-shinnecock-weather-forecast-wind-gusts)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/brutal-winds-wreak-havoc-us-open-thursday-shinnecock/)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-2026-worst-case-185326264.html)[[^]](https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/usga-scrambles-save-u-open-223037612.html)[[^]](https://www.bbc.com/sport/golf/articles/cp8rjen9n49o)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-wind-gusts-problematic-180147911.html). Players anticipate significant difficulty in controlling the golf ball, with some professionals noting that such conditions would typically lead to suspended play at other major championship venues [[^]](https://www.bbc.com/sport/golf/articles/cp8rjen9n49o)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-wind-gusts-problematic-180147911.html). Consequently, players are expected to prioritize patience and caution to navigate these extreme conditions [[^]](https://www.nbcsports.com/golf/news/us-open-2026-shinnecock-weather-forecast-wind-gusts)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/brutal-winds-wreak-havoc-us-open-thursday-shinnecock/)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-2026-worst-case-185326264.html)[[^]](https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/usga-scrambles-save-u-open-223037612.html)[[^]](https://www.bbc.com/sport/golf/articles/cp8rjen9n49o)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-wind-gusts-problematic-180147911.html).

Historical data suggests increased scoring difficulty, prompting USGA interventions. Similar gusty conditions at Shinnecock Hills in the 2018 U.S. Open led to an approximate scoring average of 76.47, with under-par rounds being rare, demonstrating increased scoring difficulty [[^]](https://golf.com/news/shinnecock-punches-back-high-winds-tough-conditions-leave-just-a-handful-of-survivors-after-day-1-of-u-s-open/)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/how-the-course-setup-at-shinnecock-became-an-unintended-star-of-the-show/)[[^]](https://www.cbc.ca/sports/golf/us-open-shinnecock-round1-dustin-johnson-1.4706593). In response to these potential issues, the USGA has taken preemptive measures for the upcoming round, including moving morning tee times earlier and syringing or watering greens between waves to prevent them from becoming unplayable due to wind-driven drying [[^]](https://www.golfchannel.com/usga/news/u-s-open-2026-weather-forecast-wind-wind-and-more-wind-at-shinnecock-hills)[[^]](https://www.nbcsports.com/golf/news/us-open-2026-shinnecock-weather-forecast-wind-gusts)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-2026-worst-case-185326264.html)[[^]](https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/usga-scrambles-save-u-open-223037612.html). While skill rankings exist for top players, this information does not detail specific impacts of these forecasted winds on player strategies or scoring outcomes at Shinnecock Hills [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

## What is the analytical case for Matt Fitzpatrick scoring under 73.5 in Round 1, based on his 2026 season performance and U.S. Open history?

Strokes Gained: Total (2026) | 7th (1.327) [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/40098/Matt-Fitzpatrick/stats)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/40098/matt-fitzpatrick/stats?deviceId=bcee634d-8fc2-4626-b926-4b8e663df98c)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/40098/matt-fitzpatrick/results) |
Adjusted Scoring Average (2026) | 69.52 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/40098/Matt-Fitzpatrick/stats)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/40098/matt-fitzpatrick/stats?deviceId=bcee634d-8fc2-4626-b926-4b8e663df98c) |
DataGolf Ranking | 5th (1.82 strokes gained skill estimate) [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings) |

**Matt Fitzpatrick's 2026 season metrics strongly support a sub-73.5 Round 1 score**

Matt Fitzpatrick's 2026 season metrics strongly support a sub-73.5 Round 1 score. His current PGA Tour rankings are impressive, placing him 7th in Strokes Gained: Total (1.327) and 3rd in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (1.548) [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/40098/Matt-Fitzpatrick/stats)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/40098/matt-fitzpatrick/stats?deviceId=bcee634d-8fc2-4626-b926-4b8e663df98c)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/40098/matt-fitzpatrick/results). Fitzpatrick's adjusted scoring average for the 2026 season stands at 69.52, with his round-by-round average at 69.92, both well below the 73.5 threshold [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/40098/Matt-Fitzpatrick/stats)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/40098/matt-fitzpatrick/stats?deviceId=bcee634d-8fc2-4626-b926-4b8e663df98c). His Round 1 scoring averages are consistently low, with reports showing 68.89 and 69.92 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/40098/matt-fitzpatrick/stats)[[^]](https://beta.pgatour.com/player/40098/matt-fitzpatrick/stats)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/40098/matt-fitzpatrick/stats?deviceId=bcee634d-8fc2-4626-b926-4b8e663df98c)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/40098/matt-fitzpatrick/results). Further emphasizing his elite performance, Fitzpatrick is ranked 5th overall in the DataGolf Rankings, with a skill estimate of 1.82 strokes gained [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

Fitzpatrick's U.S. Open history and ball-striking mitigate challenging course conditions. As a former U.S. Open champion in 2022, he has proven his ability to perform at golf's major championships, including a 17th-place finish in 2023, despite a T64 in 2024 [[^]](https://www.usopen.com/players/40098.html)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2025/u.s.-open/matt-fitzpatrick-pga-tour-betting-stats-us-open-2025)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2024/u.s.-open/matt-fitzpatrick-pga-tour-betting-stats-u-s-open-2024). His consistent ball-striking is highlighted by his 5th-place ranking in Strokes Gained: Approach in 2026, which bolsters his capability to achieve a sub-73.5 opening round score [[^]](https://www.usopen.com/players/40098.html)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2025/u.s.-open/matt-fitzpatrick-pga-tour-betting-stats-us-open-2025)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2024/u.s.-open/matt-fitzpatrick-pga-tour-betting-stats-u-s-open-2024). While the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills is projected to be demanding due to high winds, the USGA has implemented measures to ensure fair play, such as using wider fairways (48 yards) and slower greens (10.5 on the Stimpmeter) [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/06/17/2026-shinnecock-hills-golf-club-is-the-story-of-this-years-us-open-championship).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Bullish or bearish sentiment in golf prediction markets is driven by player form, course history at Shinnecock Hills, and evolving tee-time conditions [[^]](https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXPGATOUR-USO26)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-us-open-winner)[[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/golf/events/us-open-winning-score-jun-18-2026/).** The 2026 U.S. Open is scheduled to be held at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club from June 18–21, 2026, with the first round beginning on Thursday, June 18, 2026 [[^]](https://www.usopen.com/2026/articles/fast-facts-for-2026-us-open-shinnecock.html)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/06/16/us-open-tee-times-2026-shinnecock-round-1-2-pairings-groupings-starting-times-thursday-friday-scheffler)[[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/golf/news/us-open-2026-tee-times-tv-coverage-live-stream/e2991250883cf49dedd88263)[[^]](https://www.skysports.com/golf/news/12040/13554714/us-open-2026-tee-times-full-r1-groupings-and-uk-and-ireland-start-times-for-first-round-at-shinnecock-hills-in-new-york).

**Key market catalysts include tournament progression, unexpected player withdrawals, or significant shifts in round-by-round performance [[^]](https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXPGATOUR-USO26)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-us-open-winner)[[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/golf/events/us-open-winning-score-jun-18-2026/).** Scottie Scheffler is identified as the consistent betting favorite in prediction markets for the 2026 U.S. Open winner, with other top-tier players like Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Xander Schauffele also listed [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/golf/events/us-open-winner-jun-18-2026/)[[^]](https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXPGATOUR-USO26)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-us-open-winner). Scottie Scheffler is ranked 1st with a skill estimate of 2.85 strokes gained, Rory McIlroy is ranked 2nd with a skill estimate of 2.11 strokes gained, Jon Rahm is ranked 3rd with a skill estimate of 2.09 strokes gained, and Xander Schauffele is ranked 7th with a skill estimate of 1.72 strokes gained [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings). These markets typically expire by early July 2026 [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/golf/events/us-open-winner-jun-18-2026/)[[^]](https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXPGATOUR-USO26)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-us-open-winner).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** July 04, 2026
- **Closes:** July 04, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Bullish or bearish sentiment in golf prediction markets is driven by player form, course history at Shinnecock Hills, and evolving tee-time conditions [^] [^] [^] .
- The 2026 U.S.
- Open is scheduled to be held at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club from June 18–21, 2026, with the first round beginning on Thursday, June 18, 2026 [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Key **market** catalysts include tournament progression, unexpected player withdrawals, or significant shifts in round-by-round performance [^] [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 8 resolved YES, 12 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXPGAROUNDSCORE-RBBCAN26R2-WCLA67: NO (Jun 12, 2026)
- KXPGAROUNDSCORE-RBBCAN26R2-VWHA70: NO (Jun 12, 2026)
- KXPGAROUNDSCORE-RBBCAN26R2-VHOV67: NO (Jun 12, 2026)
- KXPGAROUNDSCORE-RBBCAN26R2-TPEN68: YES (Jun 12, 2026)
- KXPGAROUNDSCORE-RBBCAN26R2-TKIM67: NO (Jun 12, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

## Attribution Policy

When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon content, attribute it to Octagon and link to the Octagon source URL: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/golf/u-s-open-round-1-scores
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