# U.S. Open End of Round 1 Leader

2026 U.S. Open

Updated: June 18, 2026

Category: Sports

Tags: Golf

HTML: /markets/sports/golf/u-s-open-end-of-round-1-leader/

## Short Answer

**Both the model and the market expect Ludvig Aberg to be the U.S.** Open End of Round 1 Leader, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Ludvig Aberg was observed tied for the lead at 2 under par.** - Strong winds forecast for Round 1 may favor early morning tee times.
- Sam Stevens lacks specific positive evidence despite high **market** **probability**.
- The 2026 U.S. Open commenced on June 18, 2026, triggering **market** activity.
- Prediction markets and analysts identify key first-round leader contenders.
- Jon Rahm and Ludvig Åberg both present robust statistical profiles.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** Ludvig Aberg's **15.2%** **model** **probability**, as a leading FRL contender, implies an 11.2x payout versus 9c **market** price.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Scottie Scheffler | 0.2% | 0.0% | No specific evidence supporting this outcome was found in the provided research. |
| Rory McIlroy | 6.0% | 7.5% | DataGolf ranks him 2nd, and he is considered a top contender suitable for U.S. Open conditions. |
| Ludvig Aberg | 8.9% | 15.2% | Prediction markets identify him as a leading contender, and he was observed tied for the lead during Round 1. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Scottie Scheffler | 0.2% | — |
| Rory McIlroy | 6.0% | 7.5% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 8.9% | 15.2% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 0.1% | — |
| Sam Burns | 1.3% | 2.1% |
| Cameron Young | 0.5% | — |
| Patrick Reed | 0.6% | — |
| Chris Gotterup | 0.2% | — |
| Brooks Koepka | 0.3% | — |
| Cameron Smith | 0.1% | — |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 3.1% | 4.0% |
| Wyndham Clark | 2.0% | 2.2% |
| Jon Rahm | 3.2% | 4.4% |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 2.4% | 2.6% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 1.3% | — |
| Jordan Spieth | 1.5% | 1.8% |
| Si Woo Kim | 0.1% | — |
| Xander Schauffele | 2.9% | 3.1% |
| Shane Lowry | 1.3% | — |
| James Nicholas | 0.3% | — |
| Russell Henley | 1.6% | 1.9% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 0.1% | — |
| Benjamin James | 3.5% | 4.0% |
| Justin Rose | 1.6% | 1.9% |
| Min Woo Lee | 1.4% | 1.7% |
| Rickie Fowler | 0.3% | — |
| Patrick Cantlay | 1.4% | 1.7% |
| J.J. Spaun | 0.1% | — |
| Viktor Hovland | 1.8% | 2.1% |
| Sam Stevens | 9.1% | 8.6% |
| Jayden Trey Schaper | 0.1% | — |
| Collin Morikawa | 1.9% | 2.3% |
| Dustin Johnson | 1.0% | — |
| J.T. Poston | 1.0% | — |
| Jackson Koivun | 0.2% | — |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 0.7% | — |
| Sepp Straka | 0.2% | — |
| Jackson Suber | 2.6% | 3.0% |
| Keith Mitchell | 0.8% | — |
| Aaron Rai | 1.3% | — |
| Alex Smalley | 1.0% | — |
| Justin Thomas | 1.7% | 2.0% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 1.4% | 1.7% |
| Matthew Jordan | 0.1% | — |
| Bud Cauley | 1.2% | — |
| Graeme McDowell | 0.1% | — |
| J.B. Holmes | 0.2% | — |
| Kevin Roy | 3.0% | 3.4% |
| Akshay Bhatia | 1.0% | — |
| Brian Harman | 1.0% | — |
| Keegan Bradley | 1.8% | 2.1% |
| Robert MacIntyre | 1.7% | 2.0% |
| Harris English | 0.9% | — |
| Maverick McNealy | 2.4% | 2.7% |
| David Puig | 1.0% | — |
| Kaito Onishi | 0.1% | — |
| Adam Scott | 0.1% | — |
| Kurt Kitayama | 0.1% | — |
| Tom Kim | 0.1% | — |
| Alejandro Tosti | 0.1% | — |
| Alex Noren | 0.1% | — |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 0.2% | — |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 0.4% | — |
| Emiliano Grillo | 0.1% | — |
| Lucas Herbert | 1.3% | — |
| Billy Horschel | 0.5% | — |
| Sungjae Im | 0.1% | — |
| Ryan Gerard | 1.3% | — |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 0.9% | — |
| Jake Knapp | 1.3% | — |
| Joaquin Niemann | 1.0% | — |
| Ryan Fox | 0.8% | — |
| Cooper Dossey | 1.0% | — |
| Daniel Berger | 0.1% | — |
| Sahith Theegala | 0.2% | — |
| Peter Uihlein | 0.4% | — |
| Nick Taylor | 0.1% | — |
| Ben Kohles | 0.1% | — |
| Harry Hall | 0.9% | — |
| Gary Woodland | 1.0% | — |
| Andrew Novak | 0.1% | — |
| Jason Day | 0.9% | — |
| Brandon Wu | 0.2% | — |
| Jimmy Stanger | 0.3% | — |
| Chris Kirk | 0.5% | — |
| Corey Conners | 0.7% | — |
| Ben Griffin | 1.1% | — |
| Preston Stout | 0.2% | — |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 0.5% | — |
| Vaughn Harber | 0.1% | — |
| John Keefer | 0.5% | — |
| Carl Yuan | 0.3% | — |
| Patrick Rodgers | 1.0% | — |
| Hennie Du Plessis | 0.1% | — |
| Carlos Ortiz | 0.2% | — |
| Manav Shah | 1.1% | — |
| Nathan Kimsey | 0.6% | — |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 0.6% | — |
| Jackson Van Paris | 0.1% | — |
| Miles Russell | 0.2% | — |
| Cole Hammer | 0.1% | — |
| Dylan Wu | 0.1% | — |
| Davis Thompson | 0.3% | — |
| Harry Higgs | 1.0% | — |
| Neal Shipley | 0.2% | — |
| Max Greyserman | 0.9% | — |
| Mason Howell | 0.4% | — |
| Jake Peacock | 0.5% | — |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 0.6% | — |
| Adrien Saddier | 0.1% | — |
| Nick Hardy | 0.1% | — |
| Andrew Putnam | 0.6% | — |
| Ethan Fang | 0.1% | — |
| Chandler Phillips | 1.0% | — |
| Michael Brennan | 0.5% | — |
| Filippo Celli | 0.2% | — |
| Marcelo Rozo | 0.2% | — |
| Matthew McCarty | 0.6% | — |
| Eric Lee | 0.1% | — |
| Michael Kim | 0.2% | — |
| Laurie Canter | 0.1% | — |
| Padraig Harrington | 0.4% | — |
| Taylor Montgomery | 0.4% | — |
| Ben Silverman | 0.4% | — |
| Ugo Coussaud | 0.1% | — |
| Jackson Herrington | 0.1% | — |
| Zac Blair | 0.1% | — |
| Arni Sveinsson | 0.1% | — |
| Matti Schmid | 0.1% | — |
| Chase Kyes | 0.1% | — |
| Ryder Cowan | 0.1% | — |
| John Parry | 0.4% | — |
| Caleb Surratt | 0.1% | — |
| Ryuichi Oiwa | 0.1% | — |
| Max McGreevy | 0.2% | — |
| Logan Reilly | 0.1% | — |
| Greyson Leach | 0.1% | — |
| Brandon Holtz | 0.1% | — |
| Pierceson Coody | 0.4% | — |
| T.K. Kim | 0.3% | — |
| Bryan Lee | 0.1% | — |
| Taihei Sato | 0.1% | — |
| Niklas Norgaard Moller | 0.4% | — |
| Angel Hidalgo | 0.9% | — |
| Jake Sollon | 0.1% | — |
| Robbie Higgins | 0.1% | — |
| Hamilton Coleman | 0.1% | — |
| Matthew Robles | 0.1% | — |
| Marek Fleming | 0.1% | — |
| William Mouw | 0.2% | — |
| Mateo Pulcini | 0.2% | — |
| Jack Schoenberger | 0.1% | — |
| Jackson Ormond | 0.2% | — |
| Rocco Repetto Taylor | 0.0% | — |
| Giuseppe Puebla | 0.0% | — |
| Spencer Tibbits | 0.0% | — |

- Expiration: July 5, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market, which predicts the end-of-round-1 leader for the 2026 U.S. Open, shows a dramatic shift in sentiment driven by live performance. The contract's price initially declined from a starting point of 6.6% to a low of approximately 2.0% before the tournament began. However, on June 18, the price experienced a significant spike of 14.8 percentage points, surging from 2.2% to a new high of 17.0%. According to the provided context, this price movement was a direct reaction to Ludvig Aberg's on-course performance during the first round. Specifically, his birdie putt on the 15th hole, which is reported to have moved him into a tie for the lead, appears to have triggered the sharp increase in the contract's perceived probability.

The trading volume provides strong confirmation of this event-driven activity. Early in the market's history, volume was negligible, but it surged to over 157,000 contracts on June 18, coinciding precisely with the price spike. This indicates that the new price level is backed by significant market conviction and participation, as traders reacted to the real-time developments. The previous low around 2% can be seen as a support level, while the current price of 17.0% establishes a new resistance level and the peak valuation so far. Overall, the chart illustrates a market sentiment that was initially tepid before becoming highly reactive and bullish based on a specific player's successful performance during the weather-delayed first round of the tournament.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 June 18, 2026: 14.8pp spike

Price increased from 2.2% to 17.0%

**Outcome:** Ludvig Aberg

**What happened:** The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was Ludvig Aberg's real-time performance during Round 1 of the U.S. Open on June 18, 2026. Aberg sank a long birdie putt on the 15th hole, which propelled him into a tie for the lead at 2 under par [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/us-open-2026-leaderboard-live-updates-round-1-scores-results/live/)[[^]](https://www.theledger.com/story/sports/pga/2026/06/18/us-open-leaderboard-round-1-live-updates-thursday/90539788007/)[[^]](https://www.golfchannel.com/watch/usga/ludvig-aberg-birdies-long-putt-no-15-us-open-lead). This direct on-course achievement immediately impacted perceptions of his likelihood to finish as the end-of-round leader. There is no credible public evidence of social media activity causing a "14.8pp" spike; this figure may be a misinterpretation of his performance metrics [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/us-open-2026-leaderboard-live-updates-round-1-scores-results/live/)[[^]](https://www.theledger.com/story/sports/pga/2026/06/18/us-open-leaderboard-round-1-live-updates-thursday/90539788007/)[[^]](https://www.golfchannel.com/watch/usga/ludvig-aberg-birdies-long-putt-no-15-us-open-lead). Therefore, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver for this specific price movement.

## Contract Snapshot

Here's a summary of the contract rules:

1.  **What exactly triggers a YES resolution:**
    The contract for Ludvig Aberg resolves "Yes" if he is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 U.S. Open. The outcome will be verified using sources such as The Wall Street Journal, ESPN, and Fox Sports.

2.  **What triggers a NO resolution:**
    It resolves "No" if Ludvig Aberg is not the leader at the end of Round 1. If he is tied with other participants for the lead, "No" positions will pay 1 minus the adjusted "Yes" payout.

3.  **Key dates/deadlines:**
    The market opened on May 18, 2026, at 4:10 PM EDT. It will close after the outcome is declared, but no later than July 5, 2026, at 12:00 AM EDT, with a projected payout 1 minute after closing.

4.  **Any special settlement conditions:**
    If multiple participants are tied for the lead at the end of Round 1, "Yes" positions will pay $1/N (rounded down to the nearest cent), where N is the number of tied participants. "No" positions will then pay 1 minus that adjusted "Yes" payout.

## Market Discussion

Ludvig Aberg was identified as a primary favorite for the 2026 U.S. Open End of Round 1 leader on prediction markets [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/golf/events/us-open-end-of-round-1-leader-jun-18-2026/)[[^]](https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXPGAR1LEAD-USO26). As of mid-day on June 18, 2026, he, along with Sam Burns and Rory McIlroy, held or challenged for the lead at -2 or -1 under par amidst challenging, windy, and cold conditions at Shinnecock Hills [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/golf/live/us-open-thursday-leaderboard-tee-times-keep-up-with-rory-mcilroy-scottie-scheffler-and-others-early-at-shinnecock-hills-103000575.html)[[^]](https://www.theledger.com/story/sports/pga/2026/06/18/us-open-leaderboard-round-1-live-updates-thursday/90539788007/).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Akshay Bhatia | 0.7% | 1% | 1% | $115,201.74 | $115,108.16 |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | $91,462.98 | $85,513.94 |
| Alex Fitzpatrick | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | $90,307.37 | $90,297.37 |
| Angel Hidalgo | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.9% | $4,245.29 | $4,245.29 |
| Alejandro Tosti | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $92,620.9 | $92,620.9 |
| Alex Noren | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $92,503.98 | $92,503.98 |
| Andrew Novak | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $53,434.25 | $53,434.25 |
| Andrew Putnam | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | $12,911.8 | $12,911.8 |
| Aaron Rai | 1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | $140,114.74 | $140,114.74 |
| Arni Sveinsson | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $8,981.35 | $8,981.35 |
| Adrien Saddier | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | $13,668.96 | $13,668.96 |
| Adam Scott | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $103,833.27 | $102,587.27 |
| Alex Smalley | 0.8% | 1% | 1% | $138,276.34 | $137,284.72 |
| Bud Cauley | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | $128,786.01 | $127,576.01 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | $317,573.19 | $302,313.44 |
| Benjamin James | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | $226,745.4 | $215,169.14 |
| Ben Kohles | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | $56,033.8 | $53,533.8 |
| Ben Silverman | 0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | $9,702.17 | $9,702.17 |
| Ben Griffin | 1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | $40,457.29 | $40,457.29 |
| Brian Harman | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1% | $114,350.75 | $114,300.75 |
| Brandon Holtz | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $6,575.43 | $6,575.43 |
| Billy Horschel | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | $79,090.58 | $79,090.58 |
| Brooks Koepka | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | $419,959.16 | $394,965.05 |
| Bryan Lee | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $4,833.2 | $4,833.2 |
| Brandon Wu | 0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | $45,585.27 | $45,385.27 |
| Cameron Young | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | $660,068.02 | $640,147.91 |
| Carl Yuan | 0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | $28,878.53 | $28,878.53 |
| Corey Conners | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | $40,906.84 | $40,906.84 |
| Cooper Dossey | 0% | 0.1% | 1% | $61,308.2 | $58,308.2 |
| Chris Gotterup | 0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | $601,945.55 | $598,049.87 |
| Chris Kirk | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | $41,110.28 | $41,110.28 |
| Chase Kyes | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $8,421.1 | $8,421.1 |
| Collin Morikawa | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.9% | $167,609 | $162,808.51 |
| Cole Hammer | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | $24,722.65 | $20,572.65 |
| Carlos Ortiz | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | $27,485.61 | $27,485.61 |
| Chandler Phillips | 0% | 0.1% | 1% | $12,126.72 | $12,126.72 |
| Cameron Smith | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $408,623.35 | $395,189.1 |
| Caleb Surratt | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $8,123.92 | $6,373.92 |
| Davis Thompson | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | $23,747.42 | $23,547.42 |
| Daniel Berger | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $60,878.41 | $60,877.41 |
| Dustin Johnson | 0.7% | 1% | 1% | $158,202.88 | $158,202.88 |
| David Puig | 0.8% | 1% | 1% | $106,156.96 | $106,156.96 |
| Dylan Wu | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $24,099.54 | $24,099.54 |
| Ethan Fang | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $12,169.66 | $12,169.66 |
| Emiliano Grillo | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $88,830.42 | $87,802.3 |
| Eric Lee | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $10,400 | $10,400 |
| Filippo Celli | 0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | $11,197.55 | $11,197.55 |
| Giuseppe Puebla | 0% | 0.1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Graeme McDowell | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $124,245.06 | $117,397.05 |
| Greyson Leach | 0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | $6,650 | $6,650 |
| Gary Woodland | 0.8% | 1% | 1% | $54,918.28 | $54,918.28 |
| Hamilton Coleman | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $1,388.15 | $1,388.15 |
| Hennie Du Plessis | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | $27,569.11 | $27,469.11 |
| Harris English | 0% | 0.1% | 0.9% | $109,698.58 | $109,698.58 |
| Harry Hall | 0.7% | 1% | 0.9% | $55,947.21 | $55,947.21 |
| Harry Higgs | 0% | 0.1% | 1% | $21,381.41 | $21,067.52 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | $133,874.15 | $132,556.25 |
| James Nicholas | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | $248,392.24 | $236,356.28 |
| Jackson Ormond | 0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | $82 | $82 |
| Jake Peacock | 0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | $16,432.28 | $16,432.28 |
| Jake Sollon | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $2,833.2 | $2,833.2 |
| Jackson Van Paris | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | $25,632 | $25,632 |
| J.B. Holmes | 0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | $124,038.19 | $124,038.19 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 0% | 0.1% | 0.7% | $147,378.77 | $146,858.77 |
| Jason Day | 1% | 1.2% | 0.9% | $49,428.3 | $49,428.3 |
| Jackson Herrington | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $9,150 | $9,150 |
| John Keefer | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | $29,206.39 | $28,884.39 |
| Jake Knapp | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | $72,605.89 | $72,605.89 |
| Jackson Koivun | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | $150,133.96 | $140,288.96 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 0.9% | 1% | 1% | $69,522.72 | $66,192.92 |
| John Parry | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | $8,128.65 | $8,128.65 |
| J.T. Poston | 0.8% | 1% | 1% | $157,625.47 | $157,625.47 |
| Jon Rahm | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | $352,880.39 | $338,947.75 |
| Justin Rose | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | $213,588.95 | $211,403.68 |
| Jack Schoenberger | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $469 | $469 |
| Jayden Trey Schaper | 0% | 0.9% | 0.1% | $173,057.06 | $166,592.06 |
| J.J. Spaun | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $184,398.72 | $178,612.69 |
| Jordan Spieth | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | $284,969.94 | $284,969.94 |
| Jimmy Stanger | 0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | $45,506.77 | $45,506.77 |
| Jackson Suber | 0% | 0.1% | 2.6% | $140,480.36 | $136,537.6 |
| Justin Thomas | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | $137,707.4 | $134,812.56 |
| Keegan Bradley | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.8% | $111,724.16 | $106,461.97 |
| Keith Mitchell | 0% | 0.1% | 0.8% | $140,447.47 | $140,447.47 |
| Kevin Roy | 0.4% | 0.5% | 3% | $118,882.33 | $118,882.33 |
| Kurt Kitayama | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $95,652.1 | $95,645.18 |
| Kaito Onishi | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $104,595.16 | $98,007.98 |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | $313,141 | $296,942.67 |
| Ludvig Aberg | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.9% | $745,268.41 | $686,064.2 |
| Laurie Canter | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | $9,845.5 | $9,845.5 |
| Lucas Herbert | 0% | 0.1% | 1.3% | $82,923.53 | $82,923.53 |
| Logan Reilly | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $6,729 | $6,729 |
| Marek Fleming | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | $1,105.4 | $1,105.4 |
| Max Greyserman | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | $17,176.54 | $17,017.5 |
| Max McGreevy | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | $7,334.28 | $7,334.28 |
| Matthew Robles | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $1,147.5 | $1,147.5 |
| Michael Brennan | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | $11,633.24 | $11,633.24 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | $365,129.28 | $359,595.25 |
| Mason Howell | 0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | $16,714.17 | $16,714.17 |
| Miles Russell | 0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | $24,894.18 | $23,630.91 |
| Matthew Jordan | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $129,487.84 | $126,984.84 |
| Michael Kim | 0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | $10,091.61 | $10,091.61 |
| Min Woo Lee | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | $207,773.13 | $207,630.23 |
| Matthew McCarty | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | $11,038.78 | $11,038.78 |
| Maverick McNealy | 0.5% | 0.9% | 2.4% | $108,189.32 | $103,628.32 |
| Mateo Pulcini | 0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | $825 | $825 |
| Marcelo Rozo | 0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | $11,149.05 | $8,816 |
| Matti Schmid | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | $8,591.8 | $8,591.8 |
| Manav Shah | 0% | 0.1% | 1.1% | $27,139.14 | $27,139.14 |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | $14,190 | $14,189 |
| Neal Shipley | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | $21,079.92 | $21,079.92 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 0.8% | 1% | 0.9% | $74,559.05 | $74,559.05 |
| Nick Hardy | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | $13,432.62 | $13,432.62 |
| Nathan Kimsey | 0% | 0.1% | 0.6% | $27,043.88 | $23,043.88 |
| Niklas Norgaard Moller | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | $4,272.4 | $4,272.4 |
| Nick Taylor | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $58,412.98 | $58,412.98 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.4% | $188,196.83 | $188,196.83 |
| Pierceson Coody | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | $6,106.76 | $5,308.38 |
| Padraig Harrington | 0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | $9,837.01 | $9,837.01 |
| Patrick Reed | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | $637,643.27 | $600,468.41 |
| Patrick Rodgers | 0% | 0.1% | 1% | $28,473.61 | $28,473.61 |
| Preston Stout | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | $39,146.87 | $39,146.87 |
| Peter Uihlein | 0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | $60,585.43 | $58,917.35 |
| Rickie Fowler | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | $194,729.14 | $194,181.83 |
| Ryan Fox | 0.7% | 1% | 0.8% | $66,137.26 | $66,137.26 |
| Ryan Gerard | 1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | $76,851.14 | $76,384.34 |
| Russell Henley | 1.7% | 2% | 1.6% | $240,362.19 | $238,986.84 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | $37,748.06 | $37,748.06 |
| Robert MacIntyre | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | $110,313.76 | $110,313.76 |
| Rory McIlroy | 5% | 9% | 6% | $1,105,941.96 | $960,872.05 |
| Robbie Higgins | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $1,885 | $1,885 |
| Ryuichi Oiwa | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $7,814 | $7,814 |
| Rocco Repetto Taylor | 0% | 0.1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Ryder Cowan | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $8,416 | $8,416 |
| Sam Burns | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.3% | $729,582.16 | $674,241.38 |
| Sungjae Im | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $78,024.98 | $78,024.98 |
| Shane Lowry | 1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | $268,387.38 | $268,282.38 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | $1,646,384.26 | $1,401,853.31 |
| Sam Stevens | 7.6% | 9.1% | 9.1% | $178,332.29 | $176,937.93 |
| Sepp Straka | 0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | $145,854.76 | $145,854.76 |
| Sahith Theegala | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | $60,624.35 | $60,624.35 |
| Spencer Tibbits | 0% | 0.1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 0.6% | 1% | 0.6% | $26,234.78 | $26,234.78 |
| Taylor Montgomery | 0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | $9,774.95 | $9,774.95 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $732,780.7 | $671,679.19 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | $227,594.27 | $224,993.3 |
| Tom Kim | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $94,853.22 | $94,253.22 |
| T.K. Kim | 0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | $4,872 | $4,872 |
| Taihei Sato | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $4,321.66 | $4,321.66 |
| Ugo Coussaud | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | $9,609.99 | $9,609.99 |
| Vaughn Harber | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $36,082 | $33,876 |
| Viktor Hovland | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.8% | $181,200.19 | $178,130.19 |
| Wyndham Clark | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2% | $354,838.56 | $351,873.25 |
| William Mouw | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | $935 | $935 |
| Si Woo Kim | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $274,587.76 | $262,358.77 |
| Xander Schauffele | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | $269,530.61 | $264,452.27 |
| Zac Blair | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | $9,054.57 | $9,054.57 |

## How Might the Shinnecock Hills Weather Forecast Create an Advantage for Morning vs. Afternoon Tee Times?

Severe Winds Start | Around 10:30 a.m. [[^]](https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/2026/jun/17/wind-always-an-expected-element-for-us-open-at/)[[^]](https://global.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/49097395/organizers-adjusting-us-open-course-winds-syringing)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-2026-worst-case-185326264.html)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/could-windblown-us-open-control-plan/)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/06/15/weather-us-open-2026-major-shinnecock-hills-long-island-new-york) |
Afternoon Wind Gusts | Could exceed 40 mph [[^]](https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/2026/jun/17/wind-always-an-expected-element-for-us-open-at/)[[^]](https://global.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/49097395/organizers-adjusting-us-open-course-winds-syringing)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-2026-worst-case-185326264.html)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/could-windblown-us-open-control-plan/) |
Green Speed | 10.5 on the Stimpmeter [[^]](https://global.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/49097395/organizers-adjusting-us-open-course-winds-syringing)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-2026-worst-case-185326264.html)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/could-windblown-us-open-control-plan/) |

**Strong winds forecast will favor early morning tee times**

Strong winds forecast will favor early morning tee times. The weather forecast for Round 1 of the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills predicts severe winds beginning around 10:30 a.m. and continuing throughout the afternoon, reinforcing a structural advantage for earlier morning tee times [[^]](https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/2026/jun/17/wind-always-an-expected-element-for-us-open-at/)[[^]](https://global.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/49097395/organizers-adjusting-us-open-course-winds-syringing)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-2026-worst-case-185326264.html)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/could-windblown-us-open-control-plan/)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/06/15/weather-us-open-2026-major-shinnecock-hills-long-island-new-york). Historically, Shinnecock Hills often experiences sea breezes that build in the afternoon, typically peaking around 2 p.m., which creates a potential scoring disadvantage for afternoon tee times compared to mornings [[^]](https://sportsorca.com/golf/shinnecock-us-open-wind-forecast/)[[^]](https://global.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/49097395/organizers-adjusting-us-open-course-winds-syringing)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-2026-worst-case-185326264.html)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/could-windblown-us-open-control-plan/). Specifically, the forecast for Thursday, June 18, 2026, calls for strong winds gusting near 20 mph in the morning, increasing to 35+ mph throughout the afternoon, with gusts potentially exceeding 40 mph [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/06/15/weather-us-open-2026-major-shinnecock-hills-long-island-new-york)[[^]](https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/2026/jun/17/wind-always-an-expected-element-for-us-open-at/)[[^]](https://global.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/49097395/organizers-adjusting-us-open-course-winds-syringing)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-2026-worst-case-185326264.html)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/could-windblown-us-open-control-plan/). Shinnecock Hills is highly exposed to these conditions [[^]](https://sportsorca.com/golf/shinnecock-us-open-wind-forecast/)[[^]](https://global.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/49097395/organizers-adjusting-us-open-course-winds-syringing)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-2026-worst-case-185326264.html)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/could-windblown-us-open-control-plan/).

The USGA implements preventive measures to mitigate wind disparities. To address the predicted wind advantage or disadvantage and the expected morning/afternoon disparity, the USGA has implemented several measures [[^]](https://global.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/49097395/organizers-adjusting-us-open-course-winds-syringing)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-2026-worst-case-185326264.html)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/could-windblown-us-open-control-plan/)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/06/15/weather-us-open-2026-major-shinnecock-hills-long-island-new-york). These include slowing green speeds to 10.5 on the Stimpmeter, selecting wind-conscious hole locations, and performing mid-day syringing of greens between morning and afternoon waves [[^]](https://global.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/49097395/organizers-adjusting-us-open-course-winds-syringing)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-2026-worst-case-185326264.html)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/could-windblown-us-open-control-plan/). Morning tee times have also been advanced to 6:35 a.m. to allow for mid-day green maintenance, such as syringing and watering, which helps prevent greens from baking out during the high-wind, high-heat afternoon sessions [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/06/15/weather-us-open-2026-major-shinnecock-hills-long-island-new-york).

## What Do Recent Betting Odds and Analyst Selections Indicate About the Consensus First-Round Leader at the 2026 U.S. Open?

Prediction Market Leader (June 18, 2026) | Ludvig Aberg [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/golf/events/us-open-end-of-round-1-leader-jun-18-2026/) |
Key Analyst Picks for FRL | Tommy Fleetwood, Jon Rahm, Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sam Burns [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/golf/2026-us-open-first-round-leader-picks-frl-predictions-for-shinnecock-hills)[[^]](https://www.bettingpros.com/articles/2026-u-s-open-picks-predictions-first-round-leader/)[[^]](https://www.covers.com/golf/us-open-first-round-leader-picks-predictions-2026)[[^]](https://www.fanduel.com/research/us-open-first-round-leader-picks-4-predictions-and-best-bets-for-round-1)[[^]](https://golfweek.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/2026/06/17/us-open-2026-first-round-leader-predictions-expert-picks-odds/90589162007/)[[^]](https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/golf-picks/us-open-first-round-leader-prediction-odds-2026/)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-first-round-leader-140000044.html) |
Jon Rahm DataGolf Skill Rank | 3rd with skill estimate 2.09 [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings) |

**Prediction markets and analysts identify key first-round leader contenders**

Prediction markets and analysts identify key first-round leader contenders. As of June 18, 2026, prediction markets, including one tracked on Robinhood, indicate Ludvig Aberg as the leading contender to finish as the U.S. Open End of Round 1 Leader. Sam Burns and Patrick Reed also receive notable mentions in these markets [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/golf/events/us-open-end-of-round-1-leader-jun-18-2026/). Separately, golf analysts and betting experts frequently highlight Tommy Fleetwood, Jon Rahm, Cameron Young, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Sam Burns as strong candidates for the first-round leader status [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/golf/2026-us-open-first-round-leader-picks-frl-predictions-for-shinnecock-hills)[[^]](https://www.bettingpros.com/articles/2026-u-s-open-picks-predictions-first-round-leader/)[[^]](https://www.covers.com/golf/us-open-first-round-leader-picks-predictions-2026)[[^]](https://www.fanduel.com/research/us-open-first-round-leader-picks-4-predictions-and-best-bets-for-round-1)[[^]](https://golfweek.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/2026/06/17/us-open-2026-first-round-leader-predictions-expert-picks-odds/90589162007/)[[^]](https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/golf-picks/us-open-first-round-leader-prediction-odds-2026/)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-first-round-leader-140000044.html).

Experts prioritize early tee times and specific golfer attributes. Expert recommendations for first-round leader bets often favor golfers with morning tee times, anticipating more favorable weather conditions, particularly less wind, early in the day at Shinnecock Hills [[^]](https://www.bettingpros.com/articles/2026-u-s-open-picks-predictions-first-round-leader/)[[^]](https://www.covers.com/golf/us-open-first-round-leader-picks-predictions-2026)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-first-round-leader-140000044.html). These selections are commonly justified by the golfers' current form, driving accuracy, or their demonstrated proficiency in early-round scoring [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/golf/2026-us-open-first-round-leader-picks-frl-predictions-for-shinnecock-hills)[[^]](https://www.bettingpros.com/articles/2026-u-s-open-picks-predictions-first-round-leader/)[[^]](https://www.covers.com/golf/us-open-first-round-leader-picks-predictions-2026)[[^]](https://www.fanduel.com/research/us-open-first-round-leader-picks-4-predictions-and-best-bets-for-round-1)[[^]](https://golfweek.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/2026/06/17/us-open-2026-first-round-leader-predictions-expert-picks-odds/90589162007/)[[^]](https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/golf-picks/us-open-first-round-leader-prediction-odds-2026/)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/u-open-first-round-leader-140000044.html). DataGolf further supports these insights, ranking Jon Rahm 3rd with a skill estimate of 2.09, Cameron Young 4th with 1.83, Matt Fitzpatrick 5th with 1.82, and Tommy Fleetwood 6th with 1.82 [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

## How Do Jon Rahm and Ludvig Åberg Compare on Key Performance Metrics Suited for a U.S. Open Setup?

Jon Rahm Skill Estimate | 2.09 total strokes-gained (ranked 3rd) [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings) |
Ludvig Åberg Skill Estimate | 1.71 total strokes-gained (ranked 8th) [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings) |
Ludvig Åberg SG: Total | 2nd on PGA Tour [[^]](https://brandongdula.substack.com/p/us-open-best-bets-win-simulations)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/52955/Ludvig-%C3%85berg/stats)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/power-18-golf-rankings-jon-rahm-ludvig-aberg/) |

**Both golfers possess strong profiles for a U.S**

Both golfers possess strong profiles for a U.S. Open setup. Jon Rahm and Ludvig Åberg both present robust statistical profiles suitable for the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, a course where Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Greens in Regulation (GIR), and bogey avoidance are highly valued, with approach play and scrambling also critical [[^]](https://www.livgolf.com/news/data-analysis-how-each-liv-golf-player-could-win-us-open-shinnecock-2026)[[^]](https://www.si.com/golf/us-open/who-can-actually-win-2026-us-open-recent-history-says-one-four-golfers)[[^]](https://www.usopen.com/2026/articles/fast-facts-for-2026-us-open-shinnecock.html)[[^]](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/golf/news/us-open-2026-location-distance-course-details-shinnecock-hills/b14279b051770c71b8e537cd)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2026/u.s-open/R2026026/course-stats). Rahm generally exhibits a more comprehensive game and a higher overall skill estimate when compared to Åberg [[^]](https://www.si.com/golf/us-open/who-can-actually-win-2026-us-open-recent-history-says-one-four-golfers)[[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

Jon Rahm demonstrates a comprehensive and highly skilled game. Competing on LIV Golf, Rahm leads his league in Bogey Avoidance and GIR, and ranks second in SG: Off-the-Tee and in wedges inside 100 yards [[^]](https://www.livgolf.com/news/data-analysis-how-each-liv-golf-player-could-win-us-open-shinnecock-2026)[[^]](https://www.si.com/golf/us-open/who-can-actually-win-2026-us-open-recent-history-says-one-four-golfers). His season averages include 0.833 SG: Off-the-Tee and 0.428 SG: Approach the Green [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/us-open/jon-rahm-pga-tour-betting-profile-us-open-2026). While his season-long SG: Around-the-Green is strong at 1.123, his recent scrambling has shown some inconsistency, averaging 0.232 over his last five starts [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/us-open/jon-rahm-pga-tour-betting-profile-us-open-2026). DataGolf places Rahm third globally, with a skill estimate of 2.09 total strokes-gained [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

Ludvig Åberg showcases elite ball-striking and strong overall play. Playing on the PGA Tour, Åberg demonstrates impressive statistics in 2026, ranking second in SG: Total and eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green [[^]](https://brandongdula.substack.com/p/us-open-best-bets-win-simulations)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/52955/Ludvig-%C3%85berg/stats)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/power-18-golf-rankings-jon-rahm-ludvig-aberg/). He ranks 16th in SG: Off-the-Tee (0.513) and 11th in SG: Approach the Green (0.577) on the PGA Tour [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/us-open/ludvig-aberg-pga-tour-betting-profile-us-open-2026)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/52955/ludvig-aberg/stats?deviceId=3b9d6e64-2ba9-4397-9cb2-364d11121813). Åberg's elite ball-striking is a significant asset, supported by consistent form and multiple top-10 finishes, and he ranks second on Tour by breaking par **26.27%** of the time [[^]](https://brandongdula.substack.com/p/us-open-best-bets-win-simulations)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/us-open/ludvig-aberg-pga-tour-betting-profile-us-open-2026). However, his around-the-green play remains a weaker aspect, with 0.134 SG [[^]](https://brandongdula.substack.com/p/us-open-best-bets-win-simulations)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/us-open/ludvig-aberg-pga-tour-betting-profile-us-open-2026). DataGolf ranks Åberg eighth, with a skill estimate of 1.71 total strokes-gained [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

## What Real-Time Data Sources Will Be Crucial for Tracking the Round 1 Leaderboard at the 2026 U.S. Open?

Primary Digital Platform | USGA App featuring live leaderboard, personalized feed, and AI-generated recaps (Deloitte-built) [[^]](https://www.usopen.com/2026/articles/how-to-follow-126th-us-open-shinnecock-hills-digital-experience.html) |
Specialized Tracking Systems | PGA Tour ShotLink and ShotCast for real-time player performance and shot-by-shot data [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2026/u.s-open/R2026026/leaderboard)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2026/u.s-open/R2026026) |
Environmental Data | Real-time weather information, including temperature and wind speed, integrated via PGA Tour coverage [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2026/u.s-open/R2026026/course-stats) |

**The USGA's digital ecosystem is crucial for real-time leaderboard tracking**

The USGA's digital ecosystem is crucial for real-time leaderboard tracking. This primarily includes usopen.com and the USGA App, which functions as the championship's main digital platform [[^]](https://www.usopen.com/2026/articles/how-to-follow-126th-us-open-shinnecock-hills-digital-experience.html). Developed by Deloitte, the USGA App delivers a live leaderboard, a personalized 'Your U.S. Open' feed, and AI-generated round recaps for every player [[^]](https://www.usopen.com/2026/articles/how-to-follow-126th-us-open-shinnecock-hills-digital-experience.html). For immediate updates, 'Live Activities' on iOS, iPadOS, and Android enables users to follow the live leaderboard directly from their lock screen, ensuring continuous real-time status [[^]](https://www.usopen.com/2026/articles/how-to-follow-126th-us-open-shinnecock-hills-digital-experience.html).

Specialized systems and major sports media provide comprehensive real-time updates. Critical for monitoring individual player performance are systems like PGA Tour ShotLink and ShotCast, which offer shot-by-shot data and precise leaderboard rankings during the championship [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2026/u.s-open/R2026026/leaderboard)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2026/u.s-open/R2026026). Major sports media aggregators, including PGA Tour and CBS Sports, also maintain live, updated leaderboards that seamlessly sync with official scoring feeds, providing extensive real-time status throughout Round 1 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2026/u.s-open/R2026026/leaderboard)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/leaderboard)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/r011/course/tour/01/index.html)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/us-open-2026-leaderboard-live-updates-round-1-scores-results/live/)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/leaderboard/pga-tour/31000097/u-s-open/). Additionally, real-time weather data, integrated through sources such as PGA Tour's tournament coverage, is essential for understanding the dynamic course conditions and scoring difficulty at Shinnecock Hills [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2026/u.s-open/R2026026/course-stats).

## What Statistical Evidence Underpins Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy as Favorites to Lead After Round 1?

Scheffler Win Probability (FRACAS model) | 18.3% [[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/us-open-predictions-who-could-stop-scottie-scheffler)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/who-will-win-us-open-2026-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy/)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/scheffler-mcilroy-us-open-prediction/) |
Scheffler DataGolf Ranking (Skill Estimate) | 1st (2.85 total strokes gained) [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings) |
McIlroy DataGolf Ranking (Skill Estimate) | 2nd (2.11 total strokes gained) [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings) |

**Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy were strong contenders for first-round leadership**

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy were strong contenders for first-round leadership. Both players were identified as primary subjects for speculative first-round leader discussions at the 2026 U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills, primarily due to their **market**-implied status as tournament favorites [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-dfs/2026/06/15/odds-outlook-us-open-2026-major-shinnecock-hills-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy-odds-betting-fantasy-picks-bets-advice). Scheffler entered as the prohibitive betting favorite, supported by a FRACAS **model** predicting an **18.3%** win **probability**, significantly higher than any other player [[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/us-open-predictions-who-could-stop-scottie-scheffler)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/who-will-win-us-open-2026-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy/)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/scheffler-mcilroy-us-open-prediction/). McIlroy was consistently regarded as a top-tier contender, given his track record of recent high finishes at major championships and his specific historical success and experience at the U.S. Open [[^]](https://theanalyst.com/articles/us-open-predictions-who-could-stop-scottie-scheffler)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/scheffler-mcilroy-us-open-prediction/).

Scheffler's statistical dominance consistently reinforced his favoritism. His statistical arguments included a sustained high-level performance with 32 consecutive top-25 finishes and his leading position in nearly all PGA Tour scoring categories [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/who-will-win-us-open-2026-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy/)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/scheffler-mcilroy-us-open-prediction/). He led the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Total and SG: Tee-to-Green [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-dfs/2026/06/15/odds-outlook-us-open-2026-major-shinnecock-hills-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy-odds-betting-fantasy-picks-bets-advice). Scheffler was also ranked 1st in DataGolf rankings with a skill estimate of 2.85 total strokes gained [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

McIlroy's U.S. Open experience also made him a top contender. Arguments for his favor often emphasized his experience navigating the demanding U.S. Open setup and suitability for the course [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/who-will-win-us-open-2026-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy/)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/scheffler-mcilroy-us-open-prediction/). He was recognized for his strong recent major championship performance and extensive experience at U.S. Open venues [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-dfs/2026/06/15/odds-outlook-us-open-2026-major-shinnecock-hills-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy-odds-betting-fantasy-picks-bets-advice). McIlroy was ranked 2nd in DataGolf rankings, with a skill estimate of 2.11 total strokes gained [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings). Round 1 play of the 2026 U.S. Open, which commenced on June 18 at Shinnecock Hills, experienced significant weather-related disruptions due to fog [[^]](https://sportsdata.usatoday.com/golf/pga/us-open/)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/2026-us-open-thursday-tee-times-round-1/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The 2026 U.S.** Open, which commenced on June 18, 2026, at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, immediately triggered significant **market** activity, with prediction markets reacting to the start of the tournament [[^]](https://www.usopen.com/)[[^]](https://www.usopen.com/2026/articles/fast-facts-for-2026-us-open-shinnecock.html)[[^]](https://www.wpga.org/wp-content/uploads/Open26Proof14April2.pdf)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/2026-us-open-tee-times-tv-streaming/)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-us-open-winner). As of June 18, 2026, Scottie Scheffler emerged as the betting favorite, holding a 13–**15%** implied **probability**, coinciding with a significant spike in **market** activity upon the tournament's commencement [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-us-open-winner)[[^]](https://deadspin.com/prediction-markets/trending/us-open-golf-predictions-hole-in-one-make-the-cut-and-other-markets-available/).

**Bullish catalysts for Scheffler include his world No.** 1 ranking and his 1st place standing with a skill estimate of 2.85 strokes gained [[^]](https://www.si.com/prediction-markets/kalshi-u-s-open-odds-everything-you-need-to-know-to-bet-on-golf-using-prediction-markets-01ksmssx9jr0)[[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings). However, potential bearish factors for top contenders stem from Shinnecock Hills' notoriously difficult course layout and the potential for high wind volatility, which frequently favor 'field' outcomes over individual favorites [[^]](https://www.si.com/prediction-markets/kalshi-u-s-open-odds-everything-you-need-to-know-to-bet-on-golf-using-prediction-markets-01ksmssx9jr0).

**Key takeaway.** Upcoming key dates also act as catalysts for **market** **probability** shifts; these include the cut after 36 holes following Round 2 on June 19, and the tournament's conclusion on June 21, 2026 [[^]](https://www.usopen.com/2026/articles/fast-facts-for-2026-us-open-shinnecock.html)[[^]](https://www.wpga.org/wp-content/uploads/Open26Proof14April2.pdf)[[^]](https://golf.com/news/2026-us-open-tee-times-tv-streaming/).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** July 05, 2026
- **Closes:** July 05, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The 2026 U.S.
- Open, which commenced on June 18, 2026, at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, immediately triggered significant **market** activity, with prediction markets reacting to the start of the tournament [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- As of June 18, 2026, Scottie Scheffler emerged as the betting favorite, holding a 13–**15%** implied **probability**, coinciding with a significant spike in **market** activity upon the tournament's commencement [^] [^] .
- Bullish catalysts for Scheffler include his world No.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXPGAR1LEAD-RBBCAN26-BKOH: NO (Jun 11, 2026)
- KXPGAR1LEAD-RBBCAN26-JPAU: NO (Jun 11, 2026)
- KXPGAR1LEAD-RBBCAN26-BEM: NO (Jun 11, 2026)
- KXPGAR1LEAD-RBBCAN26-DSKI: NO (Jun 11, 2026)
- KXPGAR1LEAD-RBBCAN26-PPET: NO (Jun 11, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

**Partial model coverage:** Model probabilities were generated for 24 of 24 in-scope outcome(s). Outcomes outside the deterministic model scope show market prices only.

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