# The Open Championship Winner

2026 The Open Championship

Updated: June 23, 2026

Category: Sports

Tags: Golf

HTML: /markets/sports/golf/the-open-championship-winner/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** The **model** sees potential mispricing for Scottie Scheffler at **31.5%** **model** versus **16.0%** **market**, suggesting his top rankings and consistent 2026 major finishes are not fully reflected in current odds for The Open Championship Winner.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Scottie Scheffler is ranked first, a betting favorite with consistent 2026 major finishes.** - Jon Rahm boasts elite historical links performance and strong Open Championship results.
- Ludvig Åberg recorded three top-10 major finishes, including a 2024 Masters second place.
- Royal Birkdale favors elite, all-around golfers at the peak of their game.
- Tommy Fleetwood experienced the most significant odds shortening since markets opened.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Model sees 6.0% for Rahm's elite links record vs.** 4c, implying a 25.6x payout for the +2.1 percentage point gap.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Wyndham Clark | 2.9% | 3.2% | There is no specific information available in the research provided. |
| Jackson Koivun | 5.0% | 5.2% | No specific positive evidence is available in the research to support a win. |
| Scottie Scheffler | 16.0% | 31.5% | Ranked 1st by DataGolf and OWGR, leading in key statistics, and a betting favorite. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Wyndham Clark | 2.9% | 3.2% |
| Jackson Koivun | 5.0% | 5.2% |
| Scottie Scheffler | 16.0% | 31.5% |
| Sam Burns | 2.9% | 3.3% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 5.8% | 8.8% |
| J.T. Poston | 1.9% | — |
| Rory McIlroy | 12.0% | 16.8% |
| Tiger Woods | 0.1% | — |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 4.0% | 5.3% |
| Cameron Young | 2.8% | 3.2% |
| Xander Schauffele | 4.9% | 4.9% |
| Joaquin Niemann | 2.4% | 2.8% |
| Jon Rahm | 3.1% | 7.9% |
| Aaron Rai | 1.9% | — |
| Gary Woodland | 0.9% | — |
| Jordan Spieth | 2.0% | — |
| Justin Rose | 3.9% | 4.3% |
| Brian Harman | 1.8% | — |
| Ludvig Aberg | 3.9% | 6.0% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 3.7% | 4.1% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 1.6% | — |
| Ryan Fox | 0.9% | — |
| Nick Taylor | 0.8% | — |
| Shane Lowry | 2.9% | 3.3% |
| Rickie Fowler | 0.9% | — |
| Si Woo Kim | 2.0% | — |
| Maverick McNealy | 1.4% | — |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 2.9% | 3.3% |
| Adam Scott | 0.9% | — |
| Ben Griffin | 1.6% | — |
| Justin Thomas | 2.9% | 3.3% |
| Brooks Koepka | 2.9% | 3.3% |
| Russell Henley | 2.9% | 3.3% |
| Collin Morikawa | 3.7% | 4.1% |
| Keegan Bradley | 1.0% | — |
| Chris Gotterup | 2.9% | 3.3% |
| Viktor Hovland | 2.5% | 2.8% |
| Patrick Reed | 2.9% | 3.3% |
| Padraig Harrington | 0.2% | — |
| Akshay Bhatia | 1.5% | — |
| Alex Smalley | 1.7% | — |
| Patrick Cantlay | 1.9% | — |
| Harris English | 1.4% | — |
| Cameron Smith | 1.9% | — |
| Jackson Suber | 1.0% | — |
| Michael Kim | 0.7% | — |
| Robert MacIntyre | 2.9% | 3.3% |
| Alex Noren | 0.9% | — |
| Bud Cauley | 0.9% | — |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 1.9% | — |
| Daniel Berger | 0.9% | — |
| Ryan Gerard | 1.0% | — |
| Kurt Kitayama | 0.9% | — |
| J.J. Spaun | 1.7% | — |
| Corey Conners | 1.8% | — |
| Min Woo Lee | 1.8% | — |
| Harry Hall | 1.9% | — |
| Jason Day | 1.4% | — |
| Marco Penge | 1.8% | — |
| Sungjae Im | 0.9% | — |
| Sepp Straka | 1.9% | — |
| Kazuki Higa | 0.4% | — |
| John Daly | 0.1% | — |
| Hao-Tong Li | 1.0% | — |
| Phil Mickelson | 0.1% | — |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 1.8% | — |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | 1.0% | — |
| Jake Knapp | 1.8% | — |
| Angel Ayora Fanegas | 0.0% | — |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 0.0% | — |
| Daniel Brown | 0.0% | — |
| Jack Buchanan | 0.0% | — |
| Laurie Canter | 0.0% | — |
| Stewart Cink | 0.0% | — |
| Darren Clarke | 0.0% | — |
| Martin Couvra | 0.0% | — |
| Alistair Docherty | 0.0% | — |
| Ernie Els | 0.0% | — |
| Jeongwoo Ham | 0.0% | — |
| Lucas Herbert | 0.0% | — |
| Daniel Hillier | 0.0% | — |
| Michael Hollick | 0.0% | — |
| Billy Horschel | 0.0% | — |
| Mason Howell | 0.0% | — |
| Casey Jarvis | 0.0% | — |
| Cameron John | 0.0% | — |
| Zach Johnson | 0.0% | — |
| Kota Kaneko | 0.0% | — |
| Naoyuki Kataoka | 0.0% | — |
| Frederic Lacroix | 0.0% | — |
| Joakim Lagergren | 0.0% | — |
| Fifa Laopakdee | 0.0% | — |
| Francesco Laporta | 0.0% | — |
| Justin Leonard | 0.0% | — |
| Matthew McCarty | 0.0% | — |
| Tom McKibbin | 0.0% | — |
| Francesco Molinari | 0.0% | — |
| Ryutaro Nagano | 0.0% | — |
| Keita Nakajima | 0.0% | — |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 0.0% | — |
| Shaun Norris | 0.0% | — |
| Andrew Novak | 0.0% | — |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 0.0% | — |
| John Parry | 0.0% | — |
| Mateo Pulcini | 0.0% | — |
| Adrien Saddier | 0.0% | — |
| Jordan L. Smith | 0.0% | — |
| Elvis Smylie | 0.0% | — |
| Travis Smyth | 0.0% | — |
| Henrik Stenson | 0.0% | — |
| Jesper Svensson | 0.0% | — |
| Scott Vincent | 0.0% | — |
| Jiho Yang | 0.0% | — |
| Ren Yonezawa | 0.0% | — |

- Expiration: August 2, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market is trading in a narrow band, characteristic of an event far in the future with limited catalysts. The contract price opened at 4.0%, briefly touched a high of 4.8%, and has since settled to 3.1%, establishing this as a potential support level. The overall trend is sideways following the initial price discovery phase. The provided context, which confirms the tournament dates for July 2026, offers no specific news driver for these early fluctuations. The price action appears to reflect initial positioning rather than a reaction to any fundamental development.

Total volume of 9,027 contracts is moderate and concentrated in the market's opening days. Sample data shows volume was highest during the initial drop from 4.0% to 3.1%, suggesting that conviction was strongest on the sell-side as the market found its early equilibrium. The subsequent decline in volume indicates that activity has thinned out as the price stabilized. This pattern is typical for a long-dated contract where participants are not actively repricing risk based on new information.

The market implies a low probability for this outcome, consistent with a single entry in a large field of competitors for a golf major. The current price of 3.1% reflects sentiment that this is a long-shot contract. The established range between the 3.1% low and the 4.8% high will likely contain trading until a significant event, such as a major win or a string of dominant performances by the subject, forces a re-evaluation of the odds.

## Contract Snapshot

This contract resolves to "Yes" if Scottie Scheffler wins The Open Championship, and "No" if he does not win. Specifically for this Tournament Winner market, if Scottie Scheffler forfeits, withdraws, or does not participate prior to teeing off, the contract will resolve to "No." The market opened on June 21, 2026, and will close after a winner is declared or by August 2, 2026, at 12:00 am EDT, with outcomes verified by Fox Sports, ESPN, and PGATour.com.

## Market Discussion

Traders are primarily discussing Wyndham Clark, with several expressing support for him to win The Open Championship and contemplating buying more contracts as his odds have recently dropped from 3% to 1%. One participant explicitly stated they do not believe Scottie Scheffler will win. The discussion largely consists of expressions of sentiment rather than detailed arguments for or against specific golfers.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Angel Ayora Fanegas | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Akshay Bhatia | 0.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | $2,397.1 | $2,397.1 |
| Alistair Docherty | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Alex Noren | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | $1,141.8 | $1,141.8 |
| Andrew Novak | 0% | 0.7% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Aaron Rai | 1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | $13,977.28 | $13,977.28 |
| Adrien Saddier | 0% | 0.7% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Adam Scott | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | $5,793.03 | $5,793.03 |
| Alex Smalley | 0.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | $2,008.99 | $2,008.99 |
| Bud Cauley | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.9% | $1,079.6 | $1,079.6 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | $6,426.35 | $6,426.35 |
| Ben Griffin | 1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | $5,721.09 | $5,721.09 |
| Brian Harman | 0.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | $10,460.85 | $10,460.85 |
| Billy Horschel | 0.2% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Brooks Koepka | 1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | $5,232.99 | $5,232.99 |
| Cameron Young | 2.8% | 3.9% | 2.8% | $24,874.98 | $24,874.98 |
| Corey Conners | 0.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | $703.45 | $703.45 |
| Chris Gotterup | 0.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | $3,308.47 | $3,308.47 |
| Casey Jarvis | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Cameron John | 0% | 0.5% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Collin Morikawa | 1.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | $3,663.23 | $3,663.23 |
| Cameron Smith | 1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | $1,710.63 | $1,710.63 |
| Daniel Berger | 0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | $1,032.47 | $1,032.47 |
| Daniel Brown | 0% | 0.8% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Darren Clarke | 0% | 0.1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Daniel Hillier | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Ernie Els | 0% | 0.3% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Elvis Smylie | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Frederic Lacroix | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Fifa Laopakdee | 0% | 0.1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Francesco Laporta | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Francesco Molinari | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Gary Woodland | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | $13,118.43 | $13,118.43 |
| Harris English | 0.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% | $1,823.7 | $1,823.7 |
| Harry Hall | 0.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | $540.46 | $540.46 |
| Hao-Tong Li | 0.2% | 1% | 1% | $190.51 | $190.51 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | $1,039.88 | $1,039.88 |
| Henrik Stenson | 0% | 0.2% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 0% | 1.7% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Jack Buchanan | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| John Daly | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $230 | $230 |
| Jason Day | 0.1% | 1.4% | 1.4% | $534.07 | $534.07 |
| Jeongwoo Ham | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Jake Knapp | 0% | 1.8% | 1.8% | $37 | $37 |
| Jackson Koivun | 0.1% | 1.9% | 5% | $127,592.5 | $87,752.5 |
| Joakim Lagergren | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Justin Leonard | 0% | 0.1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | $17,604.7 | $17,604.7 |
| John Parry | 0% | 0.9% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| J.T. Poston | 0.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | $37,311.85 | $37,311.85 |
| Jon Rahm | 3.1% | 4.7% | 3.1% | $17,314.99 | $17,314.99 |
| Justin Rose | 1% | 2.7% | 3.9% | $10,745.05 | $10,745.05 |
| Jordan L. Smith | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| J.J. Spaun | 0.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | $721.6 | $721.6 |
| Jordan Spieth | 0.5% | 2% | 2% | $12,573.47 | $12,573.47 |
| Jackson Suber | 0.2% | 1% | 1% | $1,470.39 | $1,470.39 |
| Jesper Svensson | 0% | 0.9% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Justin Thomas | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | $5,518.05 | $5,486.09 |
| Jiho Yang | 0% | 0.1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Keegan Bradley | 0.1% | 1% | 1% | $3,353.38 | $3,353.38 |
| Kazuki Higa | 0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | $351 | $351 |
| Kota Kaneko | 0% | 0.4% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Kurt Kitayama | 0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | $868.47 | $868.47 |
| Keita Nakajima | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 0.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | $8,912.18 | $8,912.18 |
| Ludvig Aberg | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | $9,098.84 | $9,098.84 |
| Laurie Canter | 0% | 0.9% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Lucas Herbert | 0% | 0.8% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 0% | 1.9% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Martin Couvra | 0% | 0.8% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 3.9% | 4% | 4% | $25,320.8 | $25,133.28 |
| Michael Hollick | 0% | 0.8% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Mason Howell | 0% | 0.1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Michael Kim | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | $1,279.19 | $1,279.19 |
| Min Woo Lee | 0.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | $628.21 | $628.21 |
| Matthew McCarty | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Maverick McNealy | 0.2% | 1.4% | 1.4% | $6,521.93 | $6,521.93 |
| Marco Penge | 0.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | $519.3 | $519.3 |
| Mateo Pulcini | 0% | 0.1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 0.2% | 1.8% | 1.8% | $51.46 | $51.46 |
| Naoyuki Kataoka | 0% | 0.9% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Nick Taylor | 0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | $7,725.78 | $7,725.78 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | $1,938.74 | $1,938.74 |
| Padraig Harrington | 0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | $2,795.95 | $2,795.95 |
| Phil Mickelson | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $135 | $135 |
| Patrick Reed | 1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | $2,838.85 | $2,838.85 |
| Rickie Fowler | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | $7,528.74 | $7,528.74 |
| Ryan Fox | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | $7,891.71 | $7,891.71 |
| Ryan Gerard | 0% | 1% | 1% | $1,007.83 | $1,007.83 |
| Russell Henley | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.9% | $3,771 | $3,771 |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | 0% | 1% | 1% | $50 | $50 |
| Robert MacIntyre | 1.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | $1,229.03 | $1,219.03 |
| Rory McIlroy | 9.2% | 12% | 12% | $33,767.63 | $32,586.7 |
| Ryutaro Nagano | 0% | 0.7% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 0% | 0.9% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Ren Yonezawa | 0% | 0.5% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Sam Burns | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.9% | $64,785.8 | $61,028.35 |
| Stewart Cink | 0% | 0.1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Sungjae Im | 0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | $461.4 | $461.4 |
| Shane Lowry | 1.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | $7,696.12 | $7,696.12 |
| Shaun Norris | 0% | 0.8% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 12% | 16% | 16% | $80,053.09 | $73,032.16 |
| Sepp Straka | 1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | $422.05 | $422.05 |
| Scott Vincent | 0% | 0.8% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | $38,923.77 | $38,339.03 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 1.4% | 3% | 3.7% | $8,949.9 | $8,949.9 |
| Tom McKibbin | 0.1% | 1.4% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Travis Smyth | 0% | 2% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Tiger Woods | 0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | $26,276.8 | $26,276.8 |
| Viktor Hovland | 2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | $3,048.85 | $3,048.85 |
| Wyndham Clark | 2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | $132,580.49 | $128,108.83 |
| Si Woo Kim | 1.7% | 2% | 2% | $7,241.54 | $7,241.54 |
| Xander Schauffele | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | $20,452.96 | $18,734.29 |
| Zach Johnson | 0% | 0.1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |

## How do the major championship track records of rising stars Ludvig Aberg and Akshay Bhatia compare as of mid-2026?

Ludvig Åberg Major Top-10 Finishes | 3 (as of mid-2026) [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludvig_%C3%85berg) |
Akshay Bhatia Major Top-10 Finishes | 0 (as of mid-2026) [[^]](https://www.foremajorsgolf.com/player/9861/akshay-bhatia) |
Ludvig Åberg Skill Ranking | 8th in DataGolf Rankings (1.72 strokes gained) [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings) |

**Ludvig Åberg holds a superior major championship record over Akshay Bhatia**

Ludvig Åberg holds a superior major championship record over Akshay Bhatia. As of mid-2026, Åberg demonstrates a stronger major championship track record compared to Bhatia, securing multiple top-10 finishes and holding a higher skill ranking. In contrast, Bhatia has not yet achieved a top-10 placement in any major tournament [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludvig_%C3%85berg)[[^]](https://www.foremajorsgolf.com/player/9861/akshay-bhatia).

Åberg consistently performs well in major championships, including top finishes. Ludvig Åberg has competed in 11 major championship events, successfully making the cut in 7 of them, and achieving 3 top-10 finishes [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludvig_%C3%85berg). His most impressive results include a 2nd-place finish at the 2024 Masters Tournament and a tied-for-4th finish at the 2026 PGA Championship. Åberg is currently ranked 8th in the DataGolf Rankings, with a skill estimate of 1.72 strokes gained [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludvig_%C3%85berg)[[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

Akshay Bhatia has yet to achieve a top-10 major finish. Conversely, Akshay Bhatia has participated in 10 major championships, making 5 cuts, with his best result being a tied-for-16th finish at the 2024 U.S. Open [[^]](https://www.foremajorsgolf.com/player/9861/akshay-bhatia). He has yet to record a top-10 finish in a major and has experienced several missed cuts in events such as the 2024 and 2025 PGA Championships, and the 2026 Masters Tournament. Akshay Bhatia is not listed in the provided player skill-ranking data [[^]](https://www.foremajorsgolf.com/player/9861/akshay-bhatia)[[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

## What statistical evidence and recent major championship performance supports Scottie Scheffler's position as the leading contender for the 2026 Open?

Betting Odds for 2026 Open Championship | +400 to +600 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/06/21/round-4-us-open-shinnecock-hills-2026-major-championship-scores-leaderboard-results-scottie-scheffler-sam-burns)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler)[[^]](https://www.si.com/betting/2026-british-open-odds-rory-mcilroy-nipping-at-scottie-scheffler-s-heels-01kvqs79tjsp)[[^]](https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/golf-picks/british-open-odds/) |
Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) | No. 1 (16.57 points as of June 22, 2026) [[^]](https://www.owgr.com/playerprofile/scottie-scheffler-18417) |
Scoring Average (2026 PGA Tour) | Approximately 68.3 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=2614478f-f72f-49e3-a1a7-5007d046e5f6)[[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/pga/ask/scottie-scheffler-2026-season-stats)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/players/2156104/scottie-scheffler/) |

**Scottie Scheffler is widely considered the leading contender for the 2026 Open Championship**

Scottie Scheffler is widely considered the leading contender for the 2026 Open Championship. His position is reflected in typical betting odds ranging from +400 to +600 and his status as the defending champion [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/06/21/round-4-us-open-shinnecock-hills-2026-major-championship-scores-leaderboard-results-scottie-scheffler-sam-burns)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler)[[^]](https://www.si.com/betting/2026-british-open-odds-rory-mcilroy-nipping-at-scottie-scheffler-s-heels-01kvqs79tjsp)[[^]](https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/golf-picks/british-open-odds/). His strong candidacy is further supported by his consistent major championship performance in 2026, which includes a runner-up finish at the Masters and a T4 at the U.S. Open, placing him T14 or better in all three majors played this season [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/06/21/round-4-us-open-shinnecock-hills-2026-major-championship-scores-leaderboard-results-scottie-scheffler-sam-burns)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/results)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/players/2156104/scottie-scheffler/tournament-results/).

Scheffler's 2026 season demonstrates remarkable consistency and statistical dominance across the PGA Tour. He has secured one official victory at The American Express, alongside seven top-five and seven top-10 finishes [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/results)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/players/2156104/scottie-scheffler/tournament-results/)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=f14c5262-e1d1-4ffe-a35b-abde4135b2f3). Statistically, he maintains an approximate scoring average of 68.3 and leads in Strokes Gained: Total with roughly 2.16 strokes gained, additionally ranking 1st in SG: Total and 3rd in SG: Around-the-Green [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=f14c5262-e1d1-4ffe-a35b-abde4135b2f3)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/46046/scottie-scheffler/stats?deviceId=2614478f-f72f-49e3-a1a7-5007d046e5f6)[[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/pga/ask/scottie-scheffler-2026-season-stats)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/players/2156104/scottie-scheffler/).

Elite rankings further underscore Scheffler's top position in professional golf. As of June 22, 2026, Scottie Scheffler holds the World No. 1 ranking in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) with an average of 16.57 points [[^]](https://www.owgr.com/playerprofile/scottie-scheffler-18417). He is also ranked 1st by DataGolf, holding a skill estimate of 2.82 strokes gained [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings). These high rankings reinforce his elite performance and solidify his status as the leading player heading into the 2026 Open.

## What do historical results from past Open Championships held at Royal Birkdale suggest about the profile of a potential winner in 2026?

Scottie Scheffler DataGolf Rank | 1 (skill estimate 2.82) [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings) |
Rory McIlroy DataGolf Rank | 2 (skill estimate 2.02) [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings) |
Jon Rahm DataGolf Rank | 3 (skill estimate 1.96) [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings) |

**Royal Birkdale favors elite, all-around golfers at the peak of their game**

Royal Birkdale favors elite, all-around golfers at the peak of their game. Historical Open Championships at Royal Birkdale indicate that a winner is typically an elite, all-around player with few weaknesses, often an all-time great or a golfer performing at their peak [[^]](https://www.theopen.com/latest/royal-birkdale-champion-golfers-winners)[[^]](https://www.theopen.com/latest/2018/10/royal-birkdale-profile)[[^]](https://www.golfaustralia.com.au/news/ogilvy-why-royal-birkdale-is-so-good-468650)[[^]](https://sportsorca.com/golf/royal-birkdale-fairest-open-rota-course/)[[^]](https://pinhighpress.com/posts/royal-birkdale-course-profile/)[[^]](https://progolfweekly.com/royal-birkdales-elite-eight-the-open-champions/)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/2017-open-championship-royal-birkdale-produces-historically-great-winners/)[[^]](https://www.southportgolftours.com/open-champions-at-royal-birkdale/). The course itself is recognized as one of golf's fairest yet most demanding links, specifically requiring precision off the tee, disciplined iron play, precise trajectory control in windy conditions, creative shot-making, and strong mental fortitude [[^]](https://www.theopen.com/latest/royal-birkdale-champion-golfers-winners)[[^]](https://www.theopen.com/latest/2018/10/royal-birkdale-profile)[[^]](https://www.golfaustralia.com.au/news/ogilvy-why-royal-birkdale-is-so-good-468650)[[^]](https://sportsorca.com/golf/royal-birkdale-fairest-open-rota-course/)[[^]](https://pinhighpress.com/posts/royal-birkdale-course-profile/)[[^]](https://www.theopen.com/latest/royal-birkdale-what-players-said). Royal Birkdale offers clear, strategic challenges where complete golfers and top ball-strikers consistently excel, distinguishing it from other links courses that may feature more unpredictable elements [[^]](https://www.golfaustralia.com.au/news/ogilvy-why-royal-birkdale-is-so-good-468650)[[^]](https://sportsorca.com/golf/royal-birkdale-fairest-open-rota-course/)[[^]](https://www.theopen.com/latest/royal-birkdale-what-players-said).

Current DataGolf rankings identify top contenders for the 2026 Open. While past performance at Royal Birkdale is not included, current DataGolf rankings provide insight into potential frontrunners for the 2026 Open Championship [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings). Based on their current skill estimates, players such as Scottie Scheffler (DataGolf rank 1, skill estimate 2.82), Rory McIlroy (DataGolf rank 2, skill estimate 2.02), and Jon Rahm (DataGolf rank 3, skill estimate 1.96) are considered strong contenders for any major [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings). Additionally, other highly-ranked players including Tommy Fleetwood (DataGolf rank 4, skill estimate 1.84), Matt Fitzpatrick (DataGolf rank 5, skill estimate 1.80), and Xander Schauffele (DataGolf rank 6, skill estimate 1.75) also present as potential winners [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

## How have the futures betting markets for the 2026 Open evolved, and which players have seen the most significant odds movement since markets opened?

Scottie Scheffler Current Odds | +300 to +550 as of June 22, 2026 [[^]](https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/golf-picks/british-open-odds/)[[^]](https://www.bleachernation.com/betting/2026/06/22/2026-open-championship-odds/)[[^]](https://www.oddschecker.com/us/golf/the-open-championship)[[^]](https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/golf/the-open-championship-2026) |
Rory McIlroy Current Odds | +650 to +750 as of June 22, 2026 [[^]](https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/golf-picks/british-open-odds/)[[^]](https://www.bleachernation.com/betting/2026/06/22/2026-open-championship-odds/)[[^]](https://www.oddschecker.com/us/golf/the-open-championship)[[^]](https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/golf/the-open-championship-2026) |
Tommy Fleetwood Odds Shortening | From initial +2500 to +1300 as of June 22, 2026 [[^]](https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/golf-picks/british-open-odds/)[[^]](https://www.oddschecker.com/us/golf/the-open-championship)[[^]](https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/golf/the-open-championship-2026) |

**Scheffler and McIlroy consistently lead 2026 Open betting markets**

Scheffler and McIlroy consistently lead 2026 Open betting markets. Since the futures betting markets opened for the 2026 Open Championship, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy have consistently held the top two favorite positions. Scheffler's initial odds were recorded between +300 and +430, while McIlroy began with odds ranging from +650 to +700 [[^]](https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/golf-picks/british-open-odds/)[[^]](https://www.bleachernation.com/betting/2026/06/22/2026-open-championship-odds/). Their sustained presence at the top reflects significant **market** **confidence** in their potential performance.

Despite minor adjustments, Scheffler and McIlroy remain top contenders. As of June 22, 2026, both players have seen a slight lengthening of their odds on some platforms. Scheffler's current odds vary from +300 (DraftKings) to +550 (Oddschecker, FanDuel), and McIlroy's odds are now between +650 (DraftKings, FanDuel) and +750 (Oddschecker) [[^]](https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/golf-picks/british-open-odds/)[[^]](https://www.bleachernation.com/betting/2026/06/22/2026-open-championship-odds/)[[^]](https://www.oddschecker.com/us/golf/the-open-championship)[[^]](https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/golf/the-open-championship-2026). Even with these small shifts, they continue to be the dominant favorites in the betting landscape.

Tommy Fleetwood's odds notably shortened, reflecting increased **market** **confidence**. Fleetwood has experienced the most significant positive change in **market** sentiment, with his odds considerably shortening from an initial +2500 to as low as +1300 on certain platforms by June 22, 2026 [[^]](https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/golf-picks/british-open-odds/)[[^]](https://www.oddschecker.com/us/golf/the-open-championship)[[^]](https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/golf/the-open-championship-2026). Conversely, players such as Jon Rahm and Xander Schauffele have generally seen their odds lengthen, moving from initial ranges of +1100 to +1400 and +1600, respectively, to slightly higher current figures. Ludvig Aberg's odds, however, have largely remained stable, generally staying around +2200 to +2500 [[^]](https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/golf-picks/british-open-odds/)[[^]](https://www.bleachernation.com/betting/2026/06/22/2026-open-championship-odds/)[[^]](https://www.oddschecker.com/us/golf/the-open-championship)[[^]](https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/golf/the-open-championship-2026).

## How do Rory McIlroy's and Jon Rahm's past performances on links courses compare ahead of the 2026 Open Championship?

Jon Rahm Strokes Gained on links | +1.8 per round [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2021/07/12/jon-rahm-leads-the-list-of-links-specialists-the-open-championship) |
Jon Rahm 2023 Open Championship | T2 finish [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2025/the-open-championship/jon-rahm-pga-tour-betting-stats-the-open-championship-2025) |
Rory McIlroy DataGolf Rank | 2nd with 2.02 strokes gained [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings) |

**Jon Rahm boasts a superior track record on links-style courses, demonstrating elite performance historically**

Jon Rahm boasts a superior track record on links-style courses, demonstrating elite performance historically. He holds the highest career Strokes Gained: Total per round (+1.8) on such layouts among players with over 30 rounds played [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2021/07/12/jon-rahm-leads-the-list-of-links-specialists-the-open-championship). Rahm has consistently performed well at The Open Championship, securing top-10 finishes in three of the last four editions, including a career-best T2 in 2023 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2025/the-open-championship/jon-rahm-pga-tour-betting-stats-the-open-championship-2025). Furthermore, in the 2025 major championship season, he outperformed Rory McIlroy in aggregate major performance [[^]](https://www.sportskeeda.com/golf/news-rory-mcilroy-gets-outdone-liv-golfer-major-stat-race-ahead-2025-open-championship). Rahm is currently ranked 3rd in DataGolf's skill rankings, with an estimated 1.96 strokes gained [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

Rory McIlroy is actively preparing to enhance his links-golf skills ahead of the 2026 Open Championship. He is prioritizing this preparation by opting to compete in the Scottish Open and train on links courses instead of the Travelers Championship [[^]](https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/golf/arid-41866797.html). McIlroy recently acknowledged specific difficulties with judging bounces and executing feel shots in windy conditions, describing the environment as akin to an Open Championship [[^]](https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/golf/arid-41866797.html). He aims to improve these particular areas during his upcoming links schedule [[^]](https://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/golf/arid-41866797.html). While Rahm held an advantage in 2025 aggregate major performance [[^]](https://www.sportskeeda.com/golf/news-rory-mcilroy-gets-outdone-liv-golfer-major-stat-race-ahead-2025-open-championship), McIlroy is currently ranked 2nd in DataGolf's skill rankings, with an estimated 2.02 strokes gained, placing him slightly ahead of Rahm [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The 154th Open Championship is scheduled for July 16–19, 2026, at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England [[^]](https://www.theopen.com/royal-birkdale-154th-open)[[^]](https://www.theopen.com/latest/all-you-need-to-know-154th-open-royal-birkdale)[[^]](https://golfweek.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/majors/british-open/2026/06/22/when-is-the-2026-open-championship-at-royal-birkdale/90641242007/)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2026/the-open-championship/R2026100/overview)[[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Open_Championship).** As of June 23, 2026, betting markets identify Scottie Scheffler (approx. +400 to +600) and Rory McIlroy (approx. +650 to +700) as the primary favorites to win [[^]](https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/2026/06/22/open-2026-odds-favorites-betting-lines/90635179007/)[[^]](https://www.covers.com/golf/british-open/odds)[[^]](https://www.si.com/betting/2026-british-open-odds-rory-mcilroy-nipping-at-scottie-scheffler-s-heels-01kvqs79tjsp)[[^]](https://www.bleachernation.com/betting/2026/06/22/2026-open-championship-odds/). Key catalysts influencing betting odds include player form, links-style golf experience, and localized weather conditions at Royal Birkdale [[^]](https://www.topendsports.com/news/the-open-championship-2026-odds-a-live-betting-guide-for-royal-birkdale/)[[^]](https://www.betfirm.com/open-championship-odds/)[[^]](https://sportsorca.com/golf/open-championship-betting-guide-royal-birkdale/).

**Player form is assessed through PGA Tour statistics, including Strokes Gained categories and Greens in Regulation Percentage, providing data-driven insights into current performance and suitability for the course [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/stats/academicdata/shotlink)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/shotlink).** Scheffler has demonstrated exceptional performance, leading in key PGA Tour statistics such as Scoring Average, Birdie Average, Strokes Gained: Total, and Greens in Regulation Percentage [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/stats/academicdata/shotlink). He ranks 1st by DataGolf with a skill estimate of 2.82 strokes gained, while McIlroy ranks 2nd with a skill estimate of 2.02 strokes gained [[^]](https://datagolf.com/datagolf-rankings). Crucially, localized weather conditions, specifically wind and rain at Royal Birkdale, can create significant advantages or disadvantages depending on the tee time draw [[^]](https://www.topendsports.com/news/the-open-championship-2026-odds-a-live-betting-guide-for-royal-birkdale/)[[^]](https://www.betfirm.com/open-championship-odds/)[[^]](https://sportsorca.com/golf/open-championship-betting-guide-royal-birkdale/). Significant pre-tournament dates include July 12–15, 2026, for practice rounds, and July 15, 2026, for the Final Qualifying tournament to finalize the field [[^]](https://www.theopen.com/royal-birkdale-154th-open)[[^]](https://golfweek.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/majors/british-open/2026/06/22/when-is-the-2026-open-championship-at-royal-birkdale/90641242007/).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** August 02, 2026
- **Closes:** August 02, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The 154th Open Championship is scheduled for July 16–19, 2026, at Royal Birkdale Golf Club in Southport, England [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- As of June 23, 2026, betting markets identify Scottie Scheffler (approx.
- +400 to +600) and Rory McIlroy (approx.
- +650 to +700) as the primary favorites to win [^] [^] [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 0 resolved YES, 20 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXPGATOUR-USO26-BCAU: NO (Jun 21, 2026)
- KXPGATOUR-USO26-STIB: NO (Jun 21, 2026)
- KXPGATOUR-USO26-JAS: NO (Jun 20, 2026)
- KXPGATOUR-USO26-BLEE: NO (Jun 20, 2026)
- KXPGATOUR-USO26-HHIG: NO (Jun 21, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

**Partial model coverage:** Model probabilities were generated for 24 of 24 in-scope outcome(s). Outcomes outside the deterministic model scope show market prices only.

## Attribution Policy

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