# The Masters: Top 10 Finishers

2026 The Masters

Updated: April 10, 2026

Category: Sports

Tags: Golf

HTML: /markets/sports/golf/the-masters-top-10-finishers/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Rory McIlroy to finish in the top 10 at the 2026 Masters, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Several golfers exhibited significant disparities in Masters Top 10 probabilities.** - Scottie Scheffler made a significant equipment change six months before the event.
- Corey Conners’ elite ball-striking historically underperforms at Augusta due to putting.
- Collin Morikawa explicitly cited an ongoing back injury before the tournament.
- **Market** price experienced a large spike then sharp drops in early April.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Market** at 81c, above **78.4%** **model**, suggests overvaluation given Collin Morikawa's ongoing back injury.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Justin Rose | 55.0% | 46.5% | Market higher by 8.5pp |
| Akshay Bhatia | 21.0% | 11.6% | Market higher by 9.4pp |
| Corey Conners | 10.0% | 4.3% | Market higher by 5.7pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Justin Rose | 55.0% | 46.5% |
| Akshay Bhatia | 21.0% | 11.6% |
| Corey Conners | 10.0% | 4.3% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 33.0% | 22.2% |
| Jake Knapp | 17.0% | 8.7% |
| Chris Gotterup | 24.0% | 14.0% |
| Gary Woodland | 25.0% | 14.9% |
| Min Woo Lee | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Davis Riley | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Max Homa | 12.0% | 5.4% |
| Cameron Smith | 10.0% | 4.3% |
| Robert MacIntyre | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Shane Lowry | 39.0% | 28.4% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 7.0% | 2.7% |
| Adam Scott | 26.0% | 15.8% |
| Sungjae Im | 10.0% | 4.3% |
| J.J. Spaun | 14.0% | 6.6% |
| Marco Penge | 18.0% | 9.4% |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 10.0% | 4.3% |
| Jason Day | 50.0% | 40.6% |
| Si Woo Kim | 10.0% | 4.3% |
| Viktor Hovland | 8.0% | 3.2% |
| Sepp Straka | 13.0% | 6.0% |
| John Keefer | 6.0% | 2.3% |
| Sam Burns | 67.0% | 61.2% |
| Dustin Johnson | 8.0% | 3.2% |
| Fred Couples | 11.0% | 4.8% |
| Maverick McNealy | 17.0% | 8.7% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Jose Maria Olazabal | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Brian Harman | 22.0% | 12.4% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 39.0% | 28.4% |
| Harris English | 19.0% | 10.1% |
| Wyndham Clark | 16.0% | 8.0% |
| Keegan Bradley | 13.0% | 6.0% |
| Bubba Watson | 14.0% | 6.6% |
| Brandon Holtz | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Sam Stevens | 43.0% | 32.7% |
| Michael Kim | 9.0% | 3.7% |
| Russell Henley | 22.0% | 12.4% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Carlos Ortiz | 21.0% | 11.6% |
| Matthew McCarty | 11.0% | 4.8% |
| Charl Schwartzel | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Mason Howell | 10.0% | 4.3% |
| Ben Griffin | 20.0% | 10.8% |
| Ryan Fox | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Hao-Tong Li | 19.0% | 10.1% |
| Aaron Rai | 17.0% | 8.7% |
| Daniel Berger | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Casey Jarvis | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Sergio Garcia | 10.0% | 4.3% |
| Nick Taylor | 17.0% | 8.7% |
| Danny Willett | 31.0% | 20.3% |
| Zach Johnson | 9.0% | 3.7% |
| Vijay Singh | 29.0% | 18.4% |
| Mike Weir | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Novak | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Max Greyserman | 7.0% | 2.7% |
| Brian Campbell | 10.0% | 4.3% |
| Fifa Laopakdee | 9.0% | 3.7% |
| Naoyuki Kataoka | 38.0% | 27.3% |
| Harry Hall | 18.0% | 9.4% |
| Mateo Pulcini | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 5.0% | 1.8% |
| Michael Brennan | 12.0% | 5.4% |
| Ryan Gerard | 11.0% | 4.8% |
| Ethan Fang | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Jackson Herrington | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Tom McKibbin | 8.0% | 3.2% |
| Alex Noren | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 10.0% | 4.3% |
| Angel Cabrera | 24.0% | 14.0% |
| Sami Valimaki | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 18.0% | 9.4% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 25.0% | 14.9% |
| Patrick Reed | 50.0% | 40.6% |
| Xander Schauffele | 64.0% | 57.5% |
| Scottie Scheffler | 81.0% | 78.4% |
| Jon Rahm | 5.0% | 1.8% |
| Cameron Young | 34.0% | 23.2% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 50.0% | 40.6% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 24.0% | 14.0% |
| Rory McIlroy | 84.0% | 82.0% |
| Collin Morikawa | 7.0% | 2.7% |
| Jordan Spieth | 31.0% | 20.3% |
| Brooks Koepka | 26.0% | 15.8% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 33.0% | 22.2% |
| Justin Thomas | 18.0% | 9.4% |

- Expiration: April 27, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Based on the provided data, this prediction market has exhibited a powerful upward trend, moving from a starting price of 0.0% to a current probability of 79.0%. The price action has been characterized by two significant and rapid upward movements. The first was a 19.0 percentage point spike on March 31, 2026, which elevated the price from 45.0% to 64.0%. This was followed by an even larger 21.0 percentage point spike on April 9, 2026, vaulting the probability from 59.0% to 80.0% and establishing a new peak of 82.0%.

While no specific context is available, the timing of these price spikes in late March and early April suggests they are directly related to developments immediately preceding or during the 2026 Masters tournament. Such movements are often tied to factors like pre-tournament form, practice round reports, or strong performance in the opening rounds of the event. The substantial total volume of 143,777 contracts indicates a highly active and engaged market. The recent price increases appear to be supported by rising volume, which typically signals strong conviction among traders.

From a technical perspective, the recent peak of 82.0% represents the primary resistance level, while the prior plateau around 64.0% could now serve as a potential support level. Overall, the chart indicates a dramatic and decisive shift in market sentiment. Traders have moved from a position of uncertainty to one of very high confidence, pricing this outcome as highly probable. The current 79.0% probability reflects the market's strong consensus that this contract will resolve to 'YES'.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Jon Rahm

#### 📉 April 09, 2026: 42.0pp drop

Price decreased from 48.0% to 6.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: Ludvig Aberg

#### 📉 April 06, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 46.0% to 37.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: Rory McIlroy

#### 📈 April 04, 2026: 49.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 50.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📉 April 03, 2026: 52.0pp drop

Price decreased from 53.0% to 1.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📈 March 31, 2026: 55.0pp spike

Price increased from 0.0% to 55.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Sam Burns finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters. It resolves to "No" if he does not finish in the top 10, or if he withdraws, forfeits, or doesn't participate after teeing off. If Sam Burns withdraws, forfeits, or doesn't participate prior to teeing off, the market resolves to Fair Market Price. The market opened on April 5, 2026, will close after the event outcome (or by April 26, 2026), with payouts projected 5 minutes after closing, based on sources like Fox Sports, ESPN, and the PGA Tour.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Aaron Rai | 10% | 17% | 17% | $2,962 | $2,958 |
| Adam Scott | 13% | 28% | 26% | $18,473 | $16,952 |
| Akshay Bhatia | 19% | 21% | 21% | $77,148 | $72,427 |
| Alex Noren | 0% | 2% | 1% | $551 | $511 |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 0% | 27% | 1% | $7,395 | $7,388 |
| Angel Cabrera | 0% | 29% | 24% | $213 | $213 |
| Andrew Novak | 0% | 25% | 3% | $1,748 | $1,696 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 16% | 18% | 18% | $260,642 | $227,412 |
| Ben Griffin | 11% | 19% | 20% | $3,236 | $3,236 |
| Brandon Holtz | 0% | 39% | 1% | $5,255 | $4,521 |
| Brooks Koepka | 21% | 26% | 26% | $54,991 | $47,645 |
| Brian Campbell | 0% | 25% | 10% | $1,735 | $1,735 |
| Brian Harman | 0% | 9% | 22% | $7,121 | $6,372 |
| Bubba Watson | 0% | 5% | 14% | $5,326 | $5,324 |
| Carlos Ortiz | 0% | 29% | 21% | $3,905 | $3,905 |
| Cameron Smith | 0% | 10% | 10% | $22,812 | $22,436 |
| Corey Conners | 1% | 7% | 10% | $54,219 | $53,346 |
| Chris Gotterup | 23% | 26% | 24% | $33,048 | $31,694 |
| Charl Schwartzel | 0% | 3% | 2% | $3,475 | $3,241 |
| Casey Jarvis | 0% | 7% | 2% | $2,444 | $2,207 |
| Collin Morikawa | 12% | 14% | 7% | $57,858 | $50,463 |
| Cameron Young | 31% | 34% | 34% | $95,755 | $82,981 |
| Davis Riley | 0% | 58% | 3% | $24,343 | $23,452 |
| Danny Willett | 0% | 6% | 31% | $2,102 | $2,102 |
| Daniel Berger | 0% | 3% | 3% | $2,679 | $2,677 |
| Dustin Johnson | 0% | 8% | 8% | $10,313 | $10,281 |
| Ethan Fang | 0% | 5% | 2% | $951 | $951 |
| Fifa Laopakdee | 0% | 39% | 9% | $1,688 | $1,688 |
| Fred Couples | 0% | 9% | 11% | $8,718 | $8,718 |
| Gary Woodland | 20% | 25% | 25% | $26,385 | $24,666 |
| Harris English | 11% | 16% | 19% | $6,272 | $6,160 |
| Harry Hall | 0% | 3% | 18% | $1,431 | $1,331 |
| Hao-Tong Li | 10% | 19% | 19% | $3,021 | $2,854 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 31% | 39% | 33% | $25,133 | $22,644 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 29% | 33% | 33% | $46,585 | $44,468 |
| Jason Day | 49% | 50% | 50% | $14,483 | $12,823 |
| Jackson Herrington | 0% | 29% | 2% | $670 | $670 |
| J.J. Spaun | 8% | 15% | 14% | $15,332 | $15,260 |
| Jake Knapp | 14% | 18% | 17% | $46,235 | $43,773 |
| John Keefer | 0% | 5% | 6% | $11,197 | $11,113 |
| Jose Maria Olazabal | 0% | 29% | 2% | $7,220 | $7,220 |
| Jon Rahm | 5% | 9% | 5% | $102,081 | $82,067 |
| Jordan Spieth | 30% | 34% | 31% | $56,958 | $53,480 |
| Justin Thomas | 21% | 22% | 18% | $13,581 | $12,934 |
| Justin Rose | 51% | 55% | 55% | $125,869 | $117,084 |
| Keegan Bradley | 11% | 19% | 13% | $5,532 | $5,532 |
| Kristoffer Reitan | 8% | 17% | 10% | $541 | $490 |
| Kurt Kitayama | 28% | 38% | 39% | $6,399 | $6,361 |
| Ludvig Aberg | 27% | 29% | 25% | $177,602 | $154,744 |
| Max Greyserman | 0% | 4% | 7% | $1,744 | $1,744 |
| Max Homa | 12% | 16% | 12% | $23,912 | $23,425 |
| Maverick McNealy | 0% | 4% | 17% | $8,131 | $8,079 |
| Marco Penge | 0% | 8% | 18% | $15,238 | $14,840 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 25% | 28% | 24% | $62,614 | $57,016 |
| Mason Howell | 0% | 2% | 10% | $3,456 | $3,090 |
| Michael Brennan | 9% | 16% | 12% | $1,057 | $1,045 |
| Michael Kim | 0% | 4% | 9% | $4,589 | $4,579 |
| Mike Weir | 0% | 79% | 1% | $1,839 | $1,839 |
| Min Woo Lee | 0% | 9% | 4% | $25,482 | $24,179 |
| Matthew McCarty | 9% | 16% | 11% | $3,559 | $3,537 |
| Mateo Pulcini | 0% | 39% | 2% | $1,255 | $1,255 |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 0% | 2% | 1% | $2,491 | $2,431 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 0% | 21% | 7% | $20,472 | $19,073 |
| Nick Taylor | 13% | 18% | 17% | $2,287 | $2,227 |
| Naoyuki Kataoka | 0% | 58% | 38% | $1,483 | $1,483 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 2% | 3% | 2% | $3,949 | $3,533 |
| Patrick Reed | 50% | 55% | 50% | $165,150 | $137,046 |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | 0% | 7% | 1% | $1,762 | $1,713 |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 0% | 2% | 5% | $1,219 | $1,219 |
| Rory McIlroy | 83% | 86% | 84% | $60,125 | $49,473 |
| Robert MacIntyre | 0% | 2% | 1% | $22,041 | $21,469 |
| Russell Henley | 13% | 28% | 22% | $4,528 | $4,447 |
| Ryan Fox | 0% | 2% | 2% | $3,025 | $3,025 |
| Ryan Gerard | 10% | 16% | 11% | $1,050 | $983 |
| Sam Burns | 56% | 63% | 67% | $10,697 | $9,327 |
| Sam Stevens | 0% | 42% | 43% | $5,032 | $4,955 |
| Sami Valimaki | 0% | 29% | 3% | $178 | $178 |
| Sergio Garcia | 0% | 10% | 10% | $2,342 | $2,338 |
| Sepp Straka | 10% | 16% | 13% | $12,947 | $12,944 |
| Shane Lowry | 37% | 40% | 39% | $20,582 | $16,051 |
| Sungjae Im | 0% | 30% | 10% | $18,165 | $14,002 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 80% | 81% | 81% | $143,801 | $126,625 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 48% | 50% | 50% | $71,292 | $63,363 |
| Tom McKibbin | 0% | 5% | 8% | $604 | $602 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 7% | 11% | 10% | $14,562 | $14,362 |
| Viktor Hovland | 0% | 13% | 8% | $13,588 | $12,852 |
| Vijay Singh | 0% | 35% | 29% | $1,934 | $1,934 |
| Si Woo Kim | 9% | 16% | 10% | $14,334 | $13,824 |
| Wyndham Clark | 0% | 41% | 16% | $6,157 | $6,136 |
| Xander Schauffele | 61% | 64% | 64% | $148,900 | $139,541 |
| Zach Johnson | 0% | 3% | 9% | $2,008 | $2,008 |

## Which Golfers Meet Specific Performance Criteria for March 2026?

Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) | Not available for March 2026 [[^]](https://webserver.golfmagic.com/tour/pga-tour/official-world-golf-rankings-owgr-latest-top-100-players) |
Strokes Gained: Approach Data | Not available for March 2026 [[^]](http://www.pgatour.com/stats/strokes-gained) |
Par 5 Scoring Average Data | Not available for March 2026 [[^]](https://new.cbssports.com/golf/stats/pga-tour/par-5-performance/) |

**Specific data for March 2026 is currently unavailable to identify golfers**

Specific data for March 2026 is currently unavailable to identify golfers. Therefore, it is not possible to list golfers who rank in the top 20 of the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) and simultaneously rank in the top **15%** for both Strokes Gained: Approach and Par 5 Scoring Average over the 12-month period leading into the tournament. The research cannot provide the specific names as the necessary statistical information for that future period is not yet generated or publicly accessible.

Accurate golfer identification requires comprehensive, up-to-date statistical data for March 2026. To answer this question, essential data would include the Official World Golf Ranking for March 2026 [[^]](https://webserver.golfmagic.com/tour/pga-tour/official-world-golf-rankings-owgr-latest-top-100-players), alongside detailed PGA Tour statistics for Strokes Gained: Approach [[^]](http://www.pgatour.com/stats/strokes-gained) and Par 5 Scoring Average [[^]](https://new.cbssports.com/golf/stats/pga-tour/par-5-performance/) covering the 12 months preceding March 2026. The methodology would involve compiling the top 20 golfers from the OWGR and subsequently cross-referencing this list with players who fall within the top **15%** for both statistical categories, based on the total number of ranked players in each respective metric.

## Which Golfers Have Discrepant Top 10 Odds for the 2026 Masters?

Jordan Spieth Kalshi vs. Sportsbook Difference | 13 percentage points (Kalshi 28% vs Sportsbooks 15%) [[^]](https://cleatz.com/masters-odds/) |
Max Homa Kalshi vs. Sportsbook Difference | 12 percentage points (Kalshi 22% vs Sportsbooks 10%) [[^]](https://cleatz.com/masters-odds/) |
Patrick Cantlay Kalshi vs. Sportsbook Difference | 11 percentage points (Kalshi 25% vs Sportsbooks 14%) [[^]](https://cleatz.com/masters-odds/) |

**Significant disparities emerged in Masters Top 10 probabilities for several golfers**

Significant disparities emerged in Masters Top 10 probabilities for several golfers. An analysis of **market** data conducted during the week of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, the final tournament before the Masters, revealed notable differences in implied Top 10 probabilities for players competing in the 2026 Masters [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2026/valero-texas-open/R2026041/signature-events). Specifically, Kalshi's implied probabilities for a Top 10 finish were more than 10 percentage points higher than the aggregated consensus odds from major sportsbooks like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Bet365 for several golfers [[^]](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/04/05/2026-masters-odds-full-field/). Key players identified with such a difference included Jordan Spieth, Max Homa, Brooks Koepka, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, and Justin Thomas [[^]](https://cleatz.com/masters-odds/).

Jordan Spieth, Max Homa, and Brooks Koepka showed the largest differences. Jordan Spieth registered a 13-percentage-point difference, with an implied Top 10 **probability** of **28%** on Kalshi compared to an aggregated sportsbook average of **15%** [[^]](https://cleatz.com/masters-odds/). Max Homa and Brooks Koepka both exhibited a 12-percentage-point discrepancy [[^]](https://cleatz.com/masters-odds/). Homa's implied **probability** was **22%** on Kalshi versus **10%** from sportsbooks, while Koepka was **20%** on Kalshi compared to **8%** from sportsbooks [[^]](https://cleatz.com/masters-odds/).

Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, and Justin Thomas also had notable discrepancies. Further data indicated that these three players each presented an 11-percentage-point difference in their Top 10 finishing probabilities [[^]](https://cleatz.com/masters-odds/). Cantlay's implied **probability** on Kalshi stood at **25%** compared to **14%** from sportsbooks [[^]](https://cleatz.com/masters-odds/). Finau's implied **probability** was **18%** on Kalshi versus **7%** from sportsbooks [[^]](https://cleatz.com/masters-odds/). Thomas showed **27%** on Kalshi compared to **16%** from sportsbooks [[^]](https://cleatz.com/masters-odds/). These differences highlight distinct **market** valuations for these golfers' chances of achieving a Top 10 finish at the 2026 Masters [[^]](https://cleatz.com/masters-odds/).

## Which Masters Favorites Made Significant Equipment or Caddie Changes?

Scottie Scheffler's Putter Change | Switched putter model before Arnold Palmer Invitational, within 6 months of 2026 Masters [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/scottie-scheffler-explains-why-made-015024703.html) |
Scheffler's Performance Impact | Linked to "dominance" and multiple victories, including American Express [[^]](https://www.golfmonthly.com/news/inside-the-key-equipment-change-that-helped-scottie-scheffler-dominate-the-golf-world) |
Other Favorites' Changes | No explicit significant equipment (driver/putter) or caddie changes for McIlroy, Rahm, or DeChambeau within 6 months prior to 2026 Masters [[^]](https://golfweek-eu.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/equipment/2026/04/09/rory-mcilroy-masters-2026-taylormade-golf-equipment/89541861007/) |

**Among the tournament favorites for the 2026 Masters, Scottie Scheffler made a significant equipment change within six months prior to the event**

Among the tournament favorites for the 2026 Masters, Scottie Scheffler made a significant equipment change within six months prior to the event. Scheffler, identified as a top contender alongside Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Bryson DeChambeau [[^]](https://www.espn.com/betting/golf/story/_/id/48414887/2026-masters-golf-betting-odds-top-5-top-10-top-20-make-cut), switched his putter **model** before the Arnold Palmer Invitational [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/scottie-scheffler-explains-why-made-015024703.html). This putter alteration is highlighted as a "key equipment change that helped Scottie Scheffler dominate the golf world" [[^]](https://www.golfmonthly.com/news/inside-the-key-equipment-change-that-helped-scottie-scheffler-dominate-the-golf-world), preceding a period of strong performance and victories, including his win at the American Express tournament [[^]](https://www.golfmonthly.com/news/inside-the-key-equipment-change-that-helped-scottie-scheffler-dominate-the-golf-world).

For other favored players, significant equipment or caddie changes were not explicitly noted in the research. While sources list the player-caddie partnerships for the 2026 Masters [[^]](https://www.golfmonthly.com/news/every-player-caddie-partnership-at-the-2026-masters), they do not specify if any of the identified favorites made a caddie change within the six months preceding the tournament [[^]](https://www.golfmonthly.com/news/every-player-caddie-partnership-at-the-2026-masters). Rory McIlroy's TaylorMade golf equipment for the 2026 Masters is detailed, but no recent significant change in his driver or putter **model** within the specified timeframe is indicated [[^]](https://golfweek-eu.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/equipment/2026/04/09/rory-mcilroy-masters-2026-taylormade-golf-equipment/89541861007/). Similarly, the provided research does not include explicit information regarding significant equipment or caddie changes for Jon Rahm or Bryson DeChambeau within the six-month window prior to the 2026 Masters.

## Does Corey Conners Show Positive Regression Potential at Augusta?

Strokes Gained: Approach Rank | 2nd on PGA Tour (2026 season) [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/masters-tournament/corey-conners-pga-tour-betting-stats-masters-tournament-2026) |
Proximity to Hole (200+ yards) Rank | 7th on PGA Tour (2026 season) [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/masters-tournament/corey-conners-pga-tour-betting-stats-masters-tournament-2026) |
Historical Putting Performance at Augusta | Struggled, potential for positive regression with average putting [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/masters-tournament/corey-conners-pga-tour-betting-stats-masters-tournament-2026) |

**Corey Conners' elite ball-striking historically underperforms at Augusta due to putting struggles**

Corey Conners' elite ball-striking historically underperforms at Augusta due to putting struggles. He is renowned for his consistent ability to hit greens, a crucial skill for success at the Masters [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/masters-tournament/corey-conners-pga-tour-betting-stats-masters-tournament-2026). Despite this talent, his overall results at Augusta National have often been hindered by his putting, particularly on the fast Bentgrass greens [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/masters-tournament/corey-conners-pga-tour-betting-stats-masters-tournament-2026). This consistent challenge with the putter has prevented his exceptional iron play from fully translating into top-tier finishes at this major, suggesting historical underperformance relative to his ball-striking prowess.

Conners' 2026 metrics indicate strong potential for a Masters breakthrough. In the current 2026 season, his advanced statistics strongly support a potential for significantly improved performance. He ranks second on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach, demonstrating exceptional iron play [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/masters-tournament/corey-conners-pga-tour-betting-stats-masters-tournament-2026). Furthermore, Conners is seventh in proximity to the hole from over 200 yards, a critical statistic given Augusta National's numerous long approach shots into demanding green complexes [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/masters-tournament/corey-conners-pga-tour-betting-stats-masters-tournament-2026). Considering his past struggles with the putter on these greens during previous Masters tournaments, an improvement to merely an average putting performance for the week could leverage his elite ball-striking into a substantially higher finish than his historical average, signaling strong potential for positive regression [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/masters-tournament/corey-conners-pga-tour-betting-stats-masters-tournament-2026).

## Which Top Masters Favorites Reported Injuries or Low Confidence?

Collin Morikawa Injury | Ongoing back injury, expressed uncertainty about Masters status and current game [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/04/06/collin-morikawa-back-injury-recovery-status-ahead-of-masters-augusta-national-hurt-withdraw-health) |
Scottie Scheffler Confidence | Expressed confidence in his game, stating "I'm hitting it well, feeling confident" [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/04/07/what-they-said-press-conference-2026-masters-major-augusta-national-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy-bryson-dechambeau) |
Other Top Favorites Status | Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Bryson DeChambeau expressed optimism and confidence, with no explicit injury mentions [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/04/07/what-they-said-press-conference-2026-masters-major-augusta-national-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy-bryson-dechambeau) |

**Collin Morikawa was the only top favorite to explicitly cite an ongoing back injury**

Collin Morikawa was the only top favorite to explicitly cite an ongoing back injury. During Masters week, he disclosed that he was taking recovery "day by day," which led to uncertainty regarding his Masters status and impacted his **confidence** in his physical state and current game [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/04/06/collin-morikawa-back-injury-recovery-status-ahead-of-masters-augusta-national-hurt-withdraw-health). Despite these concerns, Morikawa ultimately confirmed his intention to participate in the tournament [[^]](https://cdn.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/48414015/collin-morikawa-play-masters-ongoing-back-injury).

In contrast, other top contenders conveyed optimism and **confidence**. Leading players such as Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Bryson DeChambeau expressed strong belief in their game leading into the tournament [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/04/07/what-they-said-press-conference-2026-masters-major-augusta-national-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy-bryson-dechambeau). While Scheffler acknowledged the mental demands of professional golf and past struggles, he explicitly stated during his Masters week press conference that he felt "in a good spot" and confident in his play [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/04/07/what-they-said-press-conference-2026-masters-major-augusta-national-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy-bryson-dechambeau). During this period, none of these other top 25 favorites explicitly mentioned nagging injuries, illnesses, or unusually low **confidence** [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/latest/2026/04/07/what-they-said-press-conference-2026-masters-major-augusta-national-scottie-scheffler-rory-mcilroy-bryson-dechambeau). Therefore, based on available press conferences and official announcements, Morikawa was the only top 25 favorite to report a nagging injury and express related uncertainty.

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** April 27, 2026
- **Closes:** April 27, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 2 resolved YES, 18 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXPGATOP10-VATO26-CKIM: NO (Apr 04, 2026)
- KXPGATOP10-VATO26-CYOU: NO (Apr 04, 2026)
- KXPGATOP10-VATO26-LGRI: NO (Apr 04, 2026)
- KXPGATOP10-VATO26-FCAP: NO (Apr 04, 2026)
- KXPGATOP10-VATO26-NHAR: NO (Apr 04, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.