# The Cj Cup Byron Nelson: Top 20 Finishers

2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

Updated: May 22, 2026

Category: Sports

Tags: Golf

HTML: /markets/sports/golf/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-top-20-finishers/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Scottie Scheffler to be among the top 20 finishers in the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Inclement weekend weather at TPC Craig Ranch may affect top contenders' performance.** - Consistent elite performance justifies **market** **confidence** in favorites like Scheffler and Si Woo Kim.
- Taylor Moore appears to lead early with a career-best round and recent strong finishes.
- Brooks Koepka's strong Round 1 start was driven primarily by exceptional putting.
- Karl Vilips demonstrates strong statistical indicators for sustaining his Round 1 performance.
- Live scoring, weather changes, and course data are key **market** catalysts.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Market**'s **4.0%** price is 2.6pp higher than the **1.4%** **model** estimate, suggesting overvaluation.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Scott Piercy | 1.0% | 0.3% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Mason Howell | 17.0% | 8.1% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |
| Greg Gregory | 1.0% | 0.3% | Research does not highlight strong supporting evidence. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Scott Piercy | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Mason Howell | 17.0% | 8.1% |
| Greg Gregory | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Nathan Petronzio | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Seung-Yul Noh | 11.0% | 4.6% |
| Ronin Banerjee | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Alex Huang | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Fabian Gomez | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Jordan Spieth | 47.0% | 34.2% |
| Brooks Koepka | 76.0% | 76.6% |
| Preston Stout | 9.0% | 3.6% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 44.0% | 31.1% |
| Pierceson Coody | 32.0% | 19.6% |
| Scottie Scheffler | 90.0% | 86.9% |
| Si Woo Kim | 83.0% | 77.7% |
| Blades Brown | 41.0% | 28.0% |
| Eric Cole | 22.0% | 11.5% |
| Tom Kim | 26.0% | 14.6% |
| Daniel Brown | 12.0% | 5.2% |
| Austin Eckroat | 55.0% | 43.1% |
| Carson Young | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| Rico Hoey | 29.0% | 17.0% |
| Sungjae Im | 30.0% | 17.9% |
| Davis Thompson | 23.0% | 12.3% |
| Erik Van Rooyen | 24.0% | 13.0% |
| Adam Headley | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Cameron Davis | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Jeremy Paul | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Peter Malnati | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Hao-Tong Li | 23.0% | 12.3% |
| Ryan Brehm | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 27.0% | 15.4% |
| Mark Hubbard | 28.0% | 16.2% |
| Paul Peterson | 10.0% | 4.1% |
| Karl Vilips | 10.0% | 4.1% |
| Rafael Campos | 7.0% | 2.7% |
| Charley Hoffman | 5.0% | 1.8% |
| Hank Lebioda | 27.0% | 15.4% |
| Luke List | 11.0% | 4.6% |
| Marcelo Rozo | 5.0% | 1.8% |
| Joe Highsmith | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Stephan Jaeger | 61.0% | 50.1% |
| Michael Brennan | 25.0% | 13.8% |
| Tony Finau | 27.0% | 15.4% |
| Harry Higgs | 9.0% | 3.6% |
| Emiliano Grillo | 45.0% | 32.1% |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Max Greyserman | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Camilo Villegas | 9.0% | 3.6% |
| Jesper Svensson | 46.0% | 33.2% |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Nick Hardy | 7.0% | 2.7% |
| David Skinns | 7.0% | 2.7% |
| Kensei Hirata | 34.0% | 21.4% |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 65.0% | 54.9% |
| Taylor Pendrith | 36.0% | 23.2% |
| Zac Blair | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Danny Willett | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| Matti Schmid | 11.0% | 4.6% |
| Jackson Buchanan | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Beau Hossler | 35.0% | 22.3% |
| Tom Hoge | 14.0% | 6.3% |
| Jimmy Stanger | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Davis Chatfield | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Max McGreevy | 23.0% | 12.3% |
| Tyler Duncan | 32.0% | 19.6% |
| Vince Whaley | 15.0% | 6.9% |
| Kevin Roy | 27.0% | 15.4% |
| John Keefer | 31.0% | 18.7% |
| William Sides | 7.0% | 2.7% |
| Keith Mitchell | 64.0% | 53.7% |
| Chandler Phillips | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| Lee Hodges | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Luke Clanton | 19.0% | 9.4% |
| Martin Laird | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| John VanDerLaan | 16.0% | 7.5% |
| Taylor Moore | 71.0% | 62.4% |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| Billy Horschel | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Adrien Saddier | 23.0% | 12.3% |
| Sam Ryder | 16.0% | 7.5% |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | 14.0% | 6.3% |
| Pontus Nyholm | 14.0% | 6.3% |
| Kevin Yu | 21.0% | 10.8% |
| Nick Dunlap | 16.0% | 7.5% |
| Kevin Streelman | 7.0% | 2.7% |
| Wyndham Clark | 46.0% | 33.2% |
| Seamus Power | 28.0% | 16.2% |
| Neal Shipley | 24.0% | 13.0% |
| Ryan Palmer | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 27.0% | 15.4% |
| Hayden Springer | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| Lanto Griffin | 32.0% | 19.6% |
| Aaron Wise | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Patton Kizzire | 7.0% | 2.7% |
| Steven Fisk | 16.0% | 7.5% |
| Chad Ramey | 20.0% | 10.1% |
| Zachary Bauchou | 24.0% | 13.0% |
| Patrick Fishburn | 26.0% | 14.6% |
| William Mouw | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Davis Riley | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Adam Schenk | 13.0% | 5.7% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 31.0% | 18.7% |
| Matt Kuchar | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 34.0% | 21.4% |
| A.J. Ewart | 25.0% | 13.8% |
| John Parry | 20.0% | 10.1% |
| Taylor Montgomery | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Brice Garnett | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Jackson Suber | 14.0% | 6.3% |
| Henrik Norlander | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Ben Martin | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Garrick Higgo | 11.0% | 4.6% |
| Cameron Champ | 19.0% | 9.4% |
| Justin Lower | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Doug Ghim | 49.0% | 36.4% |
| Chris Kirk | 28.0% | 16.2% |
| Jeffrey Kang | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Joel Dahmen | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Ben Silverman | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| Gordon Sargent | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Troy Merritt | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| Zecheng Dou | 17.0% | 8.1% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 20.0% | 10.1% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 42.0% | 29.0% |
| Takumi Kanaya | 18.0% | 8.8% |
| Mac Meissner | 16.0% | 7.5% |
| Austin Cook | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Dylan Wu | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| Yongjun Bae | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Matthieu Pavon | 17.0% | 8.1% |
| Will Gordon | 10.0% | 4.1% |
| Robert Streb | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Christo Lamprecht | 9.0% | 3.6% |
| Adam Svensson | 14.0% | 6.3% |
| James Hahn | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Jonathan Byrd | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| Noah Goodwin | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Adam Hadwin | 11.0% | 4.6% |
| Kris Ventura | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Ben Kohles | 18.0% | 8.8% |
| Chandler Blanchet | 18.0% | 8.8% |
| Keita Nakajima | 15.0% | 6.9% |
| Chan Kim | 22.0% | 11.5% |
| Trace Crowe | 15.0% | 6.9% |
| Danny Walker | 7.0% | 2.7% |
| Alejandro Tosti | 6.0% | 2.2% |

- Expiration: June 21, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has exhibited a low-volatility, sideways trend within a very narrow price band. The probability of a "Yes" outcome began at 0.0% and has since moved to its current level of 4.0%. The most significant price movement occurred in the days leading up to and during the golf tournament. The price increased from 0.0% to 2.0% on May 20, the day before the event started. It then rose again to its current high of 4.0% on May 22, which was during the tournament's active play. This timing suggests that the market's probability assessment increased as the event got underway, likely in response to the golfer's early-round performance.

The total trading volume of 4,648 contracts indicates a considerable level of market interest and participation. However, the sample data points do not show when this volume was concentrated, making it difficult to assess the conviction behind specific price moves. In terms of key price levels, the current price of 4.0% represents the market high and is acting as a resistance level. The 0.0% starting point serves as the primary support level, though it has not been tested since the initial price increase.

Overall, the chart suggests a shift in market sentiment from highly skeptical to cautiously optimistic. The initial 0.0% price implies traders saw virtually no chance of the golfer achieving a top-20 finish. The subsequent rise to 4.0% during the tournament indicates that the golfer's performance has caused the market to assign a small, but tangible, probability to this outcome. The sideways nature of the trend, despite the upward moves, reflects continued uncertainty rather than strong conviction in a positive result.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Lee Hodges

#### 📉 May 22, 2026: 14.0pp drop

Price decreased from 22.0% to 8.0%

**What happened:** The primary driver of the 14.0 percentage point price drop for "Lee Hodges" to finish in the Top 20 at The CJ Cup Byron Nelson on May 22, 2026, was his poor performance in Round 1 of the tournament. On May 21, Lee Hodges finished Round 1 with a score of 1-under (70), placing him in a tie for 93rd [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2026/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson/R2026019), which significantly diminished his prospects for a Top 20 finish [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/leaderboard/web-tour/). This outcome, disseminated via traditional news channels reporting tournament results, directly impacted market expectations. Based on the provided information, social media activity was irrelevant to this price movement.

#### 📈 May 19, 2026: 8.0pp spike

Price increased from 11.0% to 19.0%

**What happened:** The provided web research offers no information explaining the 8.0 percentage point price spike for Lee Hodges on May 19, 2026. This movement occurred two days before The CJ Cup Byron Nelson began on May 21, 2026 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson/lee-hodges-pga-tour-betting-stats-the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026)[[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/golf/leaderboard?eventId=3184&tab=leaderboard). The available sources do not contain any social media activity, specific news announcements, or market structure factors from that pre-tournament period that would drive such a price increase. Therefore, based on the provided data, the primary driver of this price movement cannot be determined, and social media is irrelevant due to the lack of evidence.

### Outcome: Charley Hoffman

#### 📈 May 21, 2026: 13.0pp spike

Price increased from 4.0% to 17.0%

**What happened:** No direct social media activity or traditional news was identified as the primary driver for Charley Hoffman's prediction market price spike on May 21, 2026 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson/charley-hoffman-pga-tour-betting-stats-the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026)[[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/golf/events/1st-round-3-ball-wisehoffmandavis-may-21-2026/). While Hoffman was participating in The Cj Cup Byron Nelson, which began on that date [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson/charley-hoffman-pga-tour-betting-stats-the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026)[[^]](https://pgatourmedia.pgatourhq.com/static-assets/page/files/tours/2026/pgatour/thecjcupbyronnelson/updatedTournamentField/Field.pdf)[[^]](https://www.golfchannel.com/pga-tour/news/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026-tee-times-pairings-how-to-watch-round-1), his performance placed him in a tie for 33rd and later T45, not within the Top 20 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2026/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson/R2026019/leaderboard)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2026/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson/R2026019). Past social media attention concerning Hoffman in earlier years (2022, 2025) was related to his criticisms of golf organizations and not his 2026 tournament performance [[^]](https://www.golfmonthly.com/news/charley-hoffman-letter-support-pga-tour)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_0hWIQo6xI)[[^]](https://www.bunkered.co.uk/golf-news/charley-hoffman-stands-by-social-media-rant/)[[^]](https://www.si.com/golf/news/charley-hoffman-addresses-instagram-rant-that-criticized-usga-pga-tour)[[^]](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uv_XOqyawjE)[[^]](https://forums.golfwrx.com/topic/1858515-charley-hoffman-slams-pga-tour-and-usga/). Therefore, based on the available information, social media appears to be mostly noise or irrelevant to this specific price movement.

### Outcome: Tony Finau

#### 📈 May 18, 2026: 13.0pp spike

Price increased from 0.0% to 13.0%

**What happened:** The 13.0 percentage point price spike on May 18, 2026, for Tony Finau to finish Top 20 in The CJ Cup Byron Nelson cannot be attributed to his performance in the tournament, as the event was scheduled to begin on May 21, 2026 [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/cj-cup-byron-nelson-leaderboard-2026-brooks-koepka-scottie-scheffler/). There is no information provided regarding specific social media activity, traditional news announcements, or significant market structure factors that occurred on or before May 18, 2026. Consequently, a primary driver for this price movement cannot be identified from the available sources. Based on the provided data, social media activity was not identified as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, mostly noise, or irrelevant due to the absence of relevant content.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Brooks Koepka finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson; otherwise, it resolves to "No." If Koepka forfeits, withdraws, or doesn't participate, the market resolves to Fair Market Price if prior to teeing off, or "No" if after teeing off. The market opened on May 18, 2026, closes after the event occurs (or by June 20, 2026, 8:00pm EDT), with projected payouts 5 minutes after closing.

## Market Discussion

Following the first round of the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson on May 21, Taylor Moore leads the field at -9, with Brooks Koepka and Jesper Svensson tied at -8 [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/cj-cup-byron-nelson-leaderboard-2026-brooks-koepka-scottie-scheffler/). Scottie Scheffler, who entered as a heavy favorite, has garnered mixed sentiment regarding his value at short odds despite his defending champion status [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/cj-cup-byron-nelson-leaderboard-2026-brooks-koepka-scottie-scheffler/). Additionally, longshots such as Doug Ghim, Hayden Springer, and Ryo Hisatsune are drawing interest for top-20 finishes, with discussions noting their statistical profiles as favorable for TPC Craig Ranch [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-winner).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Austin Cook | 0% | 1% | 2% | $844.58 | $844.58 |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 0% | 12% | 27% | $2,402.5 | $2,402.5 |
| Austin Eckroat | 28% | 56% | 55% | $20,220.38 | $19,355.95 |
| A.J. Ewart | 17% | 28% | 25% | $1,821.59 | $1,821.59 |
| Adam Hadwin | 0% | 29% | 11% | $367.68 | $367.68 |
| Adam Headley | 0% | 21% | 1% | $10,447.35 | $10,422.97 |
| Alex Huang | 0% | 1% | 1% | $323 | $323 |
| Adrien Saddier | 17% | 28% | 23% | $3,052 | $2,603 |
| Adam Schenk | 0% | 21% | 13% | $1,966.16 | $1,966.16 |
| Adam Svensson | 0% | 37% | 14% | $469 | $469 |
| Alejandro Tosti | 0% | 44% | 6% | $131 | $131 |
| Aaron Wise | 0% | 21% | 2% | $2,296.86 | $2,296.86 |
| Blades Brown | 34% | 41% | 41% | $29,922.23 | $27,861.07 |
| Brice Garnett | 0% | 22% | 1% | $1,749.38 | $1,749.38 |
| Billy Horschel | 0% | 26% | 4% | $3,053.73 | $2,927.89 |
| Beau Hossler | 30% | 39% | 35% | $4,547.15 | $4,336.06 |
| Brooks Koepka | 73% | 77% | 76% | $64,760.95 | $58,482.27 |
| Ben Kohles | 0% | 29% | 18% | $305.55 | $305.55 |
| Ben Martin | 0% | 47% | 4% | $1,533 | $1,533 |
| Ben Silverman | 0% | 10% | 6% | $1,147 | $1,147 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 18% | 27% | 27% | $8,449.72 | $8,424.72 |
| Chandler Blanchet | 0% | 10% | 18% | $303.33 | $303.33 |
| Cameron Champ | 0% | 62% | 19% | $1,518.57 | $1,474.57 |
| Cameron Davis | 0% | 3% | 3% | $10,238.14 | $9,266.57 |
| Charley Hoffman | 0% | 10% | 5% | $8,032.97 | $8,001.7 |
| Chan Kim | 15% | 26% | 22% | $284.48 | $251.24 |
| Chris Kirk | 2% | 49% | 28% | $1,374 | $1,370.98 |
| Christo Lamprecht | 0% | 43% | 9% | $493.88 | $493.88 |
| Chandler Phillips | 0% | 32% | 6% | $3,783.83 | $3,773.83 |
| Chad Ramey | 14% | 25% | 20% | $2,181 | $2,138 |
| Camilo Villegas | 7% | 12% | 9% | $5,784.57 | $5,784.57 |
| Carson Young | 1% | 9% | 6% | $15,582.86 | $12,663.29 |
| Daniel Brown | 8% | 14% | 12% | $23,385.46 | $13,467.46 |
| Davis Chatfield | 0% | 10% | 8% | $4,145.92 | $4,145.92 |
| Doug Ghim | 41% | 50% | 49% | $1,426.73 | $1,368.43 |
| Davis Riley | 0% | 23% | 3% | $2,018.7 | $2,018.7 |
| David Skinns | 0% | 12% | 7% | $5,475.66 | $5,475.66 |
| Davis Thompson | 3% | 24% | 23% | $11,121.26 | $10,561.53 |
| Danny Walker | 0% | 31% | 7% | $208 | $208 |
| Danny Willett | 0% | 23% | 6% | $4,788.9 | $4,788.9 |
| Dylan Wu | 0% | 26% | 6% | $823.98 | $823.98 |
| Eric Cole | 17% | 27% | 22% | $24,874.33 | $24,755.33 |
| Emiliano Grillo | 34% | 45% | 45% | $6,775.03 | $6,444.03 |
| Erik Van Rooyen | 16% | 25% | 24% | $10,747.43 | $10,493.92 |
| Fabian Gomez | 0% | 13% | 4% | $30 | $30 |
| Greg Gregory | 0% | 1% | 1% | $909.33 | $909.33 |
| Garrick Higgo | 0% | 30% | 11% | $1,529.92 | $1,529.92 |
| Gordon Sargent | 0% | 29% | 8% | $1,073.72 | $1,073.72 |
| Harry Higgs | 0% | 23% | 9% | $6,841 | $6,841 |
| Hank Lebioda | 8% | 43% | 27% | $7,968.55 | $7,458.55 |
| Hao-Tong Li | 14% | 25% | 23% | $9,163.26 | $9,140.26 |
| Henrik Norlander | 0% | 29% | 8% | $1,606.74 | $1,606.74 |
| Hayden Springer | 0% | 9% | 6% | $2,339.01 | $1,139.01 |
| Jackson Buchanan | 0% | 85% | 4% | $4,648.16 | $4,648.16 |
| Jonathan Byrd | 0% | 11% | 6% | $458 | $458 |
| Joel Dahmen | 0% | 23% | 3% | $1,227.25 | $1,227.25 |
| James Hahn | 0% | 29% | 2% | $468.33 | $468.33 |
| Joe Highsmith | 0% | 18% | 1% | $7,671.35 | $6,161.35 |
| Jeffrey Kang | 0% | 10% | 4% | $1,365 | $1,365 |
| John Keefer | 20% | 31% | 31% | $3,870.4 | $3,870.4 |
| Justin Lower | 0% | 11% | 8% | $1,436 | $1,436 |
| John Parry | 15% | 26% | 20% | $1,814.85 | $1,713.85 |
| Jeremy Paul | 0% | 23% | 3% | $10,051.5 | $10,051.5 |
| Jordan L. Smith | 25% | 35% | 31% | $1,881.86 | $1,870.86 |
| Jordan Spieth | 31% | 46% | 47% | $68,671.93 | $51,593.78 |
| Jimmy Stanger | 0% | 30% | 8% | $4,280.72 | $2,952.72 |
| Jackson Suber | 7% | 15% | 14% | $1,656 | $1,656 |
| Jesper Svensson | 39% | 48% | 46% | $5,595.72 | $5,535.72 |
| John VanDerLaan | 12% | 20% | 16% | $3,393 | $3,393 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 0% | 30% | 1% | $5,495.82 | $4,986.82 |
| Kensei Hirata | 27% | 34% | 34% | $5,378.08 | $3,983.08 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | 1% | 28% | 8% | $6,610.91 | $6,335.37 |
| Keith Mitchell | 56% | 65% | 64% | $3,804.14 | $3,274.35 |
| Keita Nakajima | 0% | 10% | 15% | $292 | $292 |
| Kevin Roy | 0% | 32% | 27% | $3,903.01 | $3,814.01 |
| Kevin Streelman | 0% | 29% | 7% | $2,559 | $2,559 |
| Kris Ventura | 0% | 22% | 2% | $309 | $309 |
| Karl Vilips | 0% | 10% | 10% | $8,236.79 | $7,234.79 |
| Kevin Yu | 7% | 14% | 21% | $2,813.44 | $2,813.44 |
| Luke Clanton | 14% | 22% | 19% | $3,650.67 | $3,390.67 |
| Lanto Griffin | 27% | 35% | 32% | $2,329.34 | $2,329.34 |
| Lee Hodges | 0% | 28% | 8% | $3,762.84 | $3,432.84 |
| Luke List | 9% | 17% | 11% | $7,847.51 | $7,847.51 |
| Mason Howell | 0% | 25% | 17% | $1,366.8 | $1,366.8 |
| Michael Brennan | 15% | 26% | 25% | $7,393.24 | $7,249.58 |
| Max Greyserman | 0% | 28% | 8% | $6,235.62 | $6,128.81 |
| Mark Hubbard | 20% | 29% | 28% | $8,359.92 | $8,234.18 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 35% | 45% | 42% | $944.33 | $811.86 |
| Matt Kuchar | 0% | 26% | 6% | $1,867 | $1,867 |
| Martin Laird | 0% | 43% | 6% | $3,632.56 | $3,632.56 |
| Max McGreevy | 17% | 27% | 23% | $4,005.59 | $3,904.36 |
| Mac Meissner | 3% | 45% | 16% | $864.83 | $862.1 |
| Matthieu Pavon | 12% | 20% | 17% | $751.48 | $751.48 |
| Marcelo Rozo | 0% | 36% | 5% | $7,832.62 | $7,832.62 |
| Matti Schmid | 9% | 30% | 11% | $4,679.56 | $4,646.97 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 63% | 66% | 65% | $5,180.71 | $4,392.94 |
| Nick Dunlap | 0% | 31% | 16% | $2,681.66 | $2,168.89 |
| Noah Goodwin | 0% | 10% | 8% | $424 | $424 |
| Nick Hardy | 0% | 9% | 7% | $5,480.21 | $4,468.84 |
| Nathan Petronzio | 0% | 1% | 2% | $640.37 | $640.37 |
| Neal Shipley | 14% | 25% | 24% | $2,481.3 | $2,481.3 |
| Pierceson Coody | 24% | 36% | 32% | $48,899.9 | $44,116 |
| Patrick Fishburn | 19% | 29% | 26% | $2,059.86 | $2,023.33 |
| Patton Kizzire | 0% | 26% | 7% | $2,205.06 | $2,205.06 |
| Peter Malnati | 0% | 20% | 3% | $9,421 | $9,421 |
| Pontus Nyholm | 11% | 15% | 14% | $2,840.46 | $2,825.75 |
| Paul Peterson | 0% | 25% | 10% | $8,316.47 | $8,314.47 |
| Patrick Rodgers | 12% | 23% | 20% | $970.33 | $970.33 |
| Preston Stout | 8% | 12% | 9% | $56,390.32 | $47,692.75 |
| Ronin Banerjee | 0% | 29% | 2% | $390.37 | $390.37 |
| Ryan Brehm | 0% | 21% | 1% | $9,069 | $9,069 |
| Rafael Campos | 0% | 27% | 7% | $8,219.58 | $8,219.58 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 29% | 41% | 44% | $51,853.66 | $47,689.39 |
| Rico Hoey | 25% | 36% | 29% | $15,228.83 | $15,140.83 |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | 8% | 17% | 14% | $2,874.97 | $2,847.59 |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 29% | 39% | 34% | $1,857.51 | $1,757.51 |
| Ryan Palmer | 0% | 1% | 1% | $2,412.52 | $2,412.52 |
| Robert Streb | 0% | 29% | 2% | $598.58 | $598.58 |
| Scott Piercy | 0% | 23% | 1% | $2,073.49 | $2,073.49 |
| Seung-Yul Noh | 0% | 15% | 11% | $579.47 | $579.47 |
| Steven Fisk | 7% | 16% | 16% | $2,201.04 | $2,201.04 |
| Sungjae Im | 0% | 30% | 30% | $14,018.1 | $13,855.1 |
| Stephan Jaeger | 58% | 60% | 61% | $7,460 | $6,740.42 |
| Seamus Power | 22% | 31% | 28% | $2,535.92 | $2,525.92 |
| Sam Ryder | 12% | 20% | 16% | $2,926.29 | $2,926.29 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 82% | 90% | 90% | $45,258.9 | $38,470.6 |
| Trace Crowe | 0% | 10% | 15% | $269.91 | $269.91 |
| Tyler Duncan | 22% | 32% | 32% | $3,974.03 | $3,288 |
| Tony Finau | 19% | 30% | 27% | $6,908.28 | $6,823.56 |
| Tom Hoge | 8% | 17% | 14% | $4,473.86 | $3,943.78 |
| Takumi Kanaya | 0% | 10% | 18% | $928.74 | $928.74 |
| Tom Kim | 18% | 26% | 26% | $23,840 | $22,664.38 |
| Troy Merritt | 0% | 11% | 6% | $1,029.32 | $1,029.32 |
| Taylor Montgomery | 0% | 23% | 2% | $1,758.22 | $1,708.22 |
| Taylor Moore | 64% | 72% | 71% | $3,353.81 | $2,663.81 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 0% | 10% | 6% | $3,338.4 | $3,238.4 |
| Taylor Pendrith | 31% | 53% | 36% | $5,130.86 | $5,067.07 |
| Vince Whaley | 12% | 20% | 15% | $3,937 | $3,437 |
| Wyndham Clark | 38% | 48% | 46% | $2,551.98 | $2,405.16 |
| Will Gordon | 0% | 10% | 10% | $660.13 | $660.13 |
| Si Woo Kim | 80% | 83% | 83% | $30,901.08 | $29,267.07 |
| William Mouw | 1% | 17% | 1% | $2,036.37 | $1,492.37 |
| William Sides | 2% | 18% | 7% | $3,838.43 | $3,710.43 |
| Yongjun Bae | 0% | 10% | 8% | $771 | $771 |
| Zachary Bauchou | 18% | 29% | 24% | $2,061.3 | $2,061.3 |
| Zac Blair | 1% | 10% | 4% | $4,947.58 | $3,919.58 |
| Zecheng Dou | 14% | 22% | 17% | $985.04 | $985.04 |

## How might changing weather conditions at TPC Craig Ranch over the weekend impact top contenders like Scottie Scheffler and Brooks Koepka?

Rain Probability Saturday | Approximately 50% (BetMGM’s 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson weather preview) [[^]](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/pga/cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026-weather-forecast-rain-wind-temperatures-tpc-craig-ranch-bm10/) |
Rain Probability Sunday | Approximately 50% (BetMGM’s 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson weather preview) [[^]](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/pga/cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026-weather-forecast-rain-wind-temperatures-tpc-craig-ranch-bm10/) |
Expected Scoring Conditions | Softer scoring and increased variance in late-round play (BetMGM’s 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson weather preview) [[^]](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/pga/cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026-weather-forecast-rain-wind-temperatures-tpc-craig-ranch-bm10/) |

**Weekend weather at TPC Craig Ranch includes rain and thunderstorms**

Weekend weather at TPC Craig Ranch includes rain and thunderstorms. Over THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson weekend, forecasts indicate a risk of thunderstorms and rain, which is expected to create softer scoring conditions and increase variance in late-round play [[^]](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/pga/cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026-weather-forecast-rain-wind-temperatures-tpc-craig-ranch-bm10/). Specifically, there is an approximate **50%** chance of rain on both Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures are anticipated to reach highs around 84-85°F, with winds ranging from 6-15 mph [[^]](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/pga/cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026-weather-forecast-rain-wind-temperatures-tpc-craig-ranch-bm10/). Additional thunderstorms are also expected to occur throughout the weekend [[^]](https://golfweek.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/pga/2026/05/21/cj-cup-byron-nelson-scottie-scheffler-weather-tee-times/90194995007/).

Unstable weather patterns will likely impact top contenders' outcomes. These changing conditions are expected to reshuffle the competitive landscape, directly influencing Top-20 results for players such as Scottie Scheffler and Brooks Koepka [[^]](https://golfweek.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/pga/2026/05/21/cj-cup-byron-nelson-scottie-scheffler-weather-tee-times/90194995007/). Despite this anticipated weekend weather instability, Brooks Koepka was highlighted with an actively priced Top-20 prop, signifying **market** recognition of his **probability** to finish within the Top 20 [[^]](https://www.covers.com/golf/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-odds-picks-best-bets-2026). This kind of volatility is generally expected to affect other leading contenders' Top-20 results, including widely positioned favorite Scottie Scheffler [[^]](https://www.covers.com/golf/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-odds-picks-best-bets-2026)[[^]](https://golfweek.usatoday.com/story/sports/golf/pga/2026/05/21/cj-cup-byron-nelson-scottie-scheffler-weather-tee-times/90194995007/).

## What key performance metrics from the 2026 PGA season justify the market's confidence in favorites like Scottie Scheffler and Si Woo Kim?

Scheffler 2026 Season Lead Stats | Leads PGA TOUR in SG: Total, scoring average, birdie average, bogey avoidance, par-4 scoring, and Round 3 and Round 4 scoring averages (as of April 2026) [[^]](https://beta.pgatour.com/article/news/needtoknow/2026/4/28/the-five-best-players-halfway-through-2026-season-rory-mcilory-scottie-scheffler-fitzpatrick) |
Si Woo Kim SG: Tee-to-Green | 4th (1.605) in PGA TOUR 2026 stat rankings [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/37455/si-woo-kim/stats?webview=1) |
Si Woo Kim Driving Accuracy | 1st (71.75%) in PGA TOUR 2026 stat rankings [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/37455/si-woo-kim/stats?webview=1) |

**The market's confidence in top golfers like Scottie Scheffler and Si Woo Kim is justified by their consistent elite performance and strong statistical profiles**

The **market**'s **confidence** in top golfers like Scottie Scheffler and Si Woo Kim is justified by their consistent elite performance and strong statistical profiles. Scheffler demonstrates exceptional overall efficiency and consistency, leading multiple key categories, while Kim showcases top-tier ball-striking and a reliable tournament-to-tournament floor despite some volatility in his putting [[^]](https://beta.pgatour.com/article/news/needtoknow/2026/4/28/the-five-best-players-halfway-through-2026-season-rory-mcilory-scottie-scheffler-fitzpatrick).

Scheffler's 2026 season showcases elite efficiency and consistent high finishes, solidifying his **market** favoritism. As of April 2026, he leads the PGA TOUR in SG: Total, scoring average, birdie average, bogey avoidance, par-4 scoring, and both Round 3 and Round 4 scoring averages [[^]](https://beta.pgatour.com/article/news/needtoknow/2026/4/28/the-five-best-players-halfway-through-2026-season-rory-mcilory-scottie-scheffler-fitzpatrick). Scheffler has maintained an impressive record, consistently finishing no worse than 24th and securing top-five placements in 5 of his 8 starts, including consecutive runner-up finishes at Augusta National and Harbour Town [[^]](https://beta.pgatour.com/article/news/needtoknow/2026/4/28/the-five-best-players-halfway-through-2026-season-rory-mcilory-scottie-scheffler-fitzpatrick). This strong form is reflected in betting markets, with CBS Sports listing him at +160 and Golf Channel at +168 for an upcoming event, indicating high expectations for him to be among the likelier top-20 finishers [[^]](https://beta.pgatour.com/article/news/needtoknow/2026/4/28/the-five-best-players-halfway-through-2026-season-rory-mcilory-scottie-scheffler-fitzpatrick).

Si Woo Kim excels in ball-striking, maintaining a high floor despite some putting challenges during the 2026 season. He ranks 11th in SG: Total (1.377) and is 4th in both SG: Tee-to-Green (1.605) and SG: Approach the Green (0.817) among PGA TOUR 2026 statistics [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/37455/si-woo-kim/stats?webview=1). Kim also leads the tour in Driving Accuracy (**71.75%**) and ranks 21st in Greens in Regulation (**69.19%**), although his SG: Putting is -0.227, placing him 117th [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/37455/si-woo-kim/stats?webview=1). His consistent tournament performance, including high finishes such as T2, T3, T6, T10, and T4 in 2026, reinforces his strong tournament-to-tournament floor and justifies his pricing for top-20 outcomes [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/player/37455/si-woo-kim/results?deviceId=d18d888b-9705-4a7d-a265-fece03c2fdf2). Bookmakers also reflect **confidence** in Kim, with CBS Sports listing him as a major favorite longshot at +1500 and Golf Channel at +1275 as of May 18, indicating expectations for him to be among the likelier top-20 finishers in an upcoming event [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/2026-cj-cup-byron-nelson-odds-picks-field-predictions-favorites-contenders-course-best-bets/).

## How does the course history at TPC Craig Ranch for early leader Taylor Moore compare to that of consistent performer Tony Finau?

Taylor Moore Round 1 Score | 9-under 62 (career-best) [[^]](https://athlonsports.com/golf/taylor-moore-cj-cup-byron-nelson-day-one)[[^]](https://golftoday.co.uk/cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026-r1-taylor-moore-takes-narrow-lead/)[[^]](https://www.golfchannel.com/pga-tour/news/taylor-moore-shoots-62-snatches-first-round-lead-from-brooks-koepka-late-at-byron-nelson)[[^]](https://egyptian-gazette.com/sports/koepka-trails-moore-at-byron-nelson/)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/leaderboard/web-tour/) |
Tony Finau Round 1 Score | 4-under 67 [[^]](https://athlonsports.com/golf/taylor-moore-cj-cup-byron-nelson-day-one)[[^]](https://golftoday.co.uk/cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026-r1-taylor-moore-takes-narrow-lead/)[[^]](https://www.golfchannel.com/pga-tour/news/taylor-moore-shoots-62-snatches-first-round-lead-from-brooks-koepka-late-at-byron-nelson)[[^]](https://egyptian-gazette.com/sports/koepka-trails-moore-at-byron-nelson/)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/leaderboard/web-tour/) |
Tony Finau Event History | First appearance in five years [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2025/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson/taylor-moore-pga-tour-betting-stats-the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-2025)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson/tony-finau-pga-tour-betting-stats-the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026) |

**Taylor Moore leads with a career-best round and recent top finishes**

Taylor Moore leads with a career-best round and recent top finishes. Taylor Moore has taken the lead at the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, carding a career-best 9-under 62 in the first round [[^]](https://athlonsports.com/golf/taylor-moore-cj-cup-byron-nelson-day-one)[[^]](https://golftoday.co.uk/cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026-r1-taylor-moore-takes-narrow-lead/)[[^]](https://www.golfchannel.com/pga-tour/news/taylor-moore-shoots-62-snatches-first-round-lead-from-brooks-koepka-late-at-byron-nelson)[[^]](https://egyptian-gazette.com/sports/koepka-trails-moore-at-byron-nelson/)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/leaderboard/web-tour/). This performance marks his fourth time holding an 18-hole lead or co-lead on the PGA Tour [[^]](https://athlonsports.com/golf/taylor-moore-cj-cup-byron-nelson-day-one)[[^]](https://golftoday.co.uk/cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026-r1-taylor-moore-takes-narrow-lead/)[[^]](https://www.golfchannel.com/pga-tour/news/taylor-moore-shoots-62-snatches-first-round-lead-from-brooks-koepka-late-at-byron-nelson)[[^]](https://egyptian-gazette.com/sports/koepka-trails-moore-at-byron-nelson/)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/leaderboard/web-tour/). Moore's only PGA Tour victory was the 2023 Valspar Championship [[^]](https://www.golfaustralia.com.au/news/moore-holds-slender-lead-over-koepka-in-byron-nelson-626062)[[^]](https://egyptian-gazette.com/sports/koepka-trails-moore-at-byron-nelson/)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2025/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson/taylor-moore-pga-tour-betting-stats-the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-2025). He has secured two top-10 finishes in his last ten starts, including a tie for seventh at The American Express [[^]](https://www.golfaustralia.com.au/news/moore-holds-slender-lead-over-koepka-in-byron-nelson-626062)[[^]](https://egyptian-gazette.com/sports/koepka-trails-moore-at-byron-nelson/)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2025/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson/taylor-moore-pga-tour-betting-stats-the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-2025). His previous result at this event was a tie for 32nd in 2022 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2025/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson/taylor-moore-pga-tour-betting-stats-the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-2025)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson/tony-finau-pga-tour-betting-stats-the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026).

Tony Finau trails Moore, showing recent inconsistency despite strong starts. In contrast, Tony Finau is tied for 32nd after shooting a 4-under 67 in the first round [[^]](https://athlonsports.com/golf/taylor-moore-cj-cup-byron-nelson-day-one)[[^]](https://golftoday.co.uk/cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026-r1-taylor-moore-takes-narrow-lead/)[[^]](https://www.golfchannel.com/pga-tour/news/taylor-moore-shoots-62-snatches-first-round-lead-from-brooks-koepka-late-at-byron-nelson)[[^]](https://egyptian-gazette.com/sports/koepka-trails-moore-at-byron-nelson/)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/leaderboard/web-tour/). This appearance is Finau's first at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson in five years, and potentially his debut at the revamped TPC Craig Ranch [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson/tony-finau-pga-tour-betting-stats-the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026)[[^]](https://www.rotoballer.com/player-news/tony-finau-looking-for-consistency-at-tpc-craig-ranch/1863327)[[^]](https://betting.betfair.com/golf/golf-bets/cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026-first-round-leader-tips-dave-tindalls-three-to-back-up-to-80-1-190526-719.html). Despite a tendency for strong opening rounds, Finau has shown inconsistency over 72 holes, with only two top-20 finishes in his last ten appearances; his best recent finish was a T18 at the Valspar Championship [[^]](https://betting.betfair.com/golf/golf-bets/cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026-first-round-leader-tips-dave-tindalls-three-to-back-up-to-80-1-190526-719.html)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson/tony-finau-pga-tour-betting-stats-the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026). Recent statistics highlight his struggles with off-the-tee play and approach shots with long irons, ranking 105th and 111th respectively in strokes gained this season [[^]](https://www.rotoballer.com/player-news/tony-finau-looking-for-consistency-at-tpc-craig-ranch/1863327).

## What do the available Strokes Gained data from Round 1 reveal about the performance drivers for leaders like Taylor Moore and Brooks Koepka?

Koepka Strokes Gained Putting (Round 1) | >2 strokes [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/cj-cup-byron-nelson-leaderboard-2026-brooks-koepka-scottie-scheffler/) |
Moore Round 1 Score | 9-under 62 [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/taylor-moore-shoots-62-snatches-235636014.html)[[^]](https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/golf/article/cj-cup-byron-nelson-round-1-scheffler-kim-koepka-22263842.php)[[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/golf/scorecard?id=4824&player=taylor-moore) |
Koepka Round 1 Score | 8-under 63 [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/cj-cup-byron-nelson-leaderboard-2026-brooks-koepka-scottie-scheffler/)[[^]](https://www.skysports.com/golf/news/12040/13546679/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-brooks-koepka-makes-strong-start-with-scottie-scheffler-also-in-early-contention)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/daily-wrapup/2026/05/21/brooks-koepka-leads-the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-tpc-craig-ranch-scores-leaderboard-results-round-1-scottie-scheffler-66)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/taylor-moore-shoots-62-snatches-235636014.html) |

**Brooks Koepka's strong start was primarily driven by exceptional putting**

Brooks Koepka's strong start was primarily driven by exceptional putting. Brooks Koepka's Round 1 performance at the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson was notably propelled by his putting, where he gained over two strokes on the field [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/cj-cup-byron-nelson-leaderboard-2026-brooks-koepka-scottie-scheffler/). He finished the round with an 8-under 63, maintaining a bogey-free score and securing an eagle on the par-5 12th, along with multiple birdies, including one on the 11th [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/news/cj-cup-byron-nelson-leaderboard-2026-brooks-koepka-scottie-scheffler/)[[^]](https://www.skysports.com/golf/news/12040/13546679/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-brooks-koepka-makes-strong-start-with-scottie-scheffler-also-in-early-contention)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/daily-wrapup/2026/05/21/brooks-koepka-leads-the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-tpc-craig-ranch-scores-leaderboard-results-round-1-scottie-scheffler-66)[[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/taylor-moore-shoots-62-snatches-235636014.html). This efficient conversion of approach and short-game opportunities was key to his strong showing.

Taylor Moore led a high-scoring round with a bogey-free performance. Taylor Moore secured the Round 1 lead by posting a bogey-free 9-under 62 [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/taylor-moore-shoots-62-snatches-235636014.html)[[^]](https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/golf/article/cj-cup-byron-nelson-round-1-scheffler-kim-koepka-22263842.php)[[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/golf/scorecard?id=4824&player=taylor-moore). While specific Strokes Gained drivers for his impressive score were not detailed, the initial round of the event was a high-scoring affair, recording a season-high 24 eagles [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/taylor-moore-shoots-62-snatches-235636014.html). This suggests that the advantages held by the leading players, including Moore, likely stemmed from their effective conversion of scoring opportunities, rather than solely from avoiding bogeys [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/taylor-moore-shoots-62-snatches-235636014.html).

## Which players who exceeded expectations in Round 1, such as Jesper Svensson or Karl Vilips, have the underlying statistics to sustain their performance through the final round?

Karl Vilips - Strokes Gained: Putting | 10th on PGA TOUR [[^]](https://fantasysixpack.net/2026-cj-cup-byron-nelson-dfs-and-betting-picks/) |
Karl Vilips - SG: Approach (last 5 starts) | 0.548 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson/karl-vilips-pga-tour-betting-stats-the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026) |
Jesper Svensson - Round 1 Score | -8 (T2) [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/golf/scorecard?id=4824&player=jesper-svensson) |

**Karl Vilips demonstrates strong statistical indicators for sustained performance**

Karl Vilips demonstrates strong statistical indicators for sustained performance. He appears well-positioned to maintain his performance, supported by finishes of 33rd or better in four of his last five starts [[^]](https://fantasysixpack.net/2026-cj-cup-byron-nelson-dfs-and-betting-picks/). His underlying statistics reveal a ranking of 10th on the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Putting and 38th in birdie-or-better percentage. Additionally, an average of 0.548 Strokes Gained: Approach the Green over his last five starts provides a robust statistical foundation [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson/karl-vilips-pga-tour-betting-stats-the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026).

Jesper Svensson's impressive Round 1 performance may be an outlier. His -8 score, which placed him tied for 2nd position in the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, might not be sustainable [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/golf/scorecard?id=4824&player=jesper-svensson). Svensson has recently struggled with consistency, evidenced by averages of -1.660 Strokes Gained: Total and -0.852 Strokes Gained: Approach the Green over his last five starts [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson/jesper-svensson-pga-tour-betting-stats-the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026). These statistics suggest that his Round 1 score may not continue without a significant improvement in his approach play [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/betting-profile/2026/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson/jesper-svensson-pga-tour-betting-stats-the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-2026).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Tournament catalysts for golf prediction markets include live scoring updates, weather changes such as wind and rain, course-specific data like renovation impact, and personnel updates including mid-round withdrawals or momentum shifts [[^]](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/05/18/where-is-the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-being-played-in-2026/)[[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/golf/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-pga-tour-may-21-2026-leaderboard-4824).** The 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson is scheduled at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, from May 21 to May 24, 2026, with key field participants expected to include Scottie Scheffler, Brooks Koepka, Tom Kim, and Jordan Spieth [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2026/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson/R2026019/overview)[[^]](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/05/18/where-is-the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-being-played-in-2026/)[[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/golf/the-cj-cup-byron-nelson-pga-tour-may-21-2026-leaderboard-4824)[[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/the-first-look/2026/05/18/the-first-look-cj-cub-byron-nelson-scottie-scheffler-tpc-craig-ranch)[[^]](https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/golf/article/2026-cj-cup-byron-nelson-tee-times-tpc-craig-ranch-22267698.php).

**Prediction markets for PGA Tour events are sensitive to high-volume betting, public sentiment, and real-time news [[^]](https://frontofficesports.com/pga-tour-on-prediction-markets-its-complicated/)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/sports/golf).** However, the PGA Tour remains cautious regarding official partnerships with these markets due to integrity concerns [[^]](https://frontofficesports.com/pga-tour-on-prediction-markets-its-complicated/)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/sports/golf).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** June 21, 2026
- **Closes:** June 21, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Tournament catalysts for golf prediction markets include live scoring updates, weather changes such as wind and rain, course-specific data like renovation impact, and personnel updates including mid-round withdrawals or momentum shifts [^] [^] .
- The 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson is scheduled at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, from May 21 to May 24, 2026, with key field participants expected to include Scottie Scheffler, Brooks Koepka, Tom Kim, and Jordan Spieth [^] [^] [^] [^] [^] .
- Prediction markets for PGA Tour events are sensitive to high-volume betting, public sentiment, and real-time news [^] [^] .
- However, the PGA Tour remains cautious regarding official partnerships with these markets due to integrity concerns [^] [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 1 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXPGATOP20-THCCBN26-WSIM: SCALAR (May 20, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-THCCBN26-NHOJ: SCALAR (May 20, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-THCCBN26-MPEN: SCALAR (May 20, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-THCCBN26-MKIM: SCALAR (May 20, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-THCCBN26-DFOR: SCALAR (May 20, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

## Attribution Policy

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