# Rbc Heritage: Top 20 Finishers

2026 RBC Heritage

Updated: April 17, 2026

Category: Sports

Tags: Golf

HTML: /markets/sports/golf/rbc-heritage-top-20-finishers/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Ludvig Aberg to be among the top 20 finishers at the 2026 RBC Heritage, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Specific golfer performance data for the event cannot be compiled.** - Player improvement at RBC Heritage versus season average is not feasible.
- No historical line movement data is available from European sportsbooks.
- Specific player identification based on all criteria could not be completed.
- Late/early wave expected to gain over 0.5 strokes advantage.
- The **market** experienced significant price spikes during mid-April 2026.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** The 89c **market** is 3.4pp above the **85.6%** **model**, with research noting significant golfer data limitations.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 6.0% | 2.2% | His performance depends on leveraging recent improvements in his short game. |
| Jordan Spieth | 40.0% | 27.1% | He often performs strongly at Harbour Town with his creative play around the greens. |
| Patrick Cantlay | 55.0% | 43.1% | His consistent ball-striking and strategic course management are key for a top finish. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| Jordan Spieth | 40.0% | 27.1% |
| Patrick Cantlay | 55.0% | 43.1% |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 9.0% | 3.6% |
| Scottie Scheffler | 86.0% | 81.7% |
| Brian Harman | 19.0% | 9.4% |
| John Keefer | 11.0% | 4.6% |
| Jake Knapp | 28.0% | 16.2% |
| Cameron Young | 38.0% | 25.1% |
| Ludvig Aberg | 89.0% | 85.6% |
| Chris Gotterup | 22.0% | 11.5% |
| Sam Burns | 31.0% | 18.7% |
| Justin Thomas | 10.0% | 4.1% |
| Andrew Novak | 57.0% | 45.4% |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 88.0% | 84.3% |
| Sahith Theegala | 28.0% | 16.2% |
| Russell Henley | 67.0% | 57.4% |
| Joe Highsmith | 15.0% | 6.9% |
| Collin Morikawa | 70.0% | 61.1% |
| Viktor Hovland | 78.0% | 71.3% |
| Xander Schauffele | 60.0% | 48.9% |
| Maverick McNealy | 9.0% | 3.6% |
| Sepp Straka | 60.0% | 48.9% |
| Daniel Berger | 50.0% | 37.5% |
| Max Homa | 20.0% | 10.1% |
| Robert MacIntyre | 69.0% | 59.9% |
| Gary Woodland | 53.0% | 40.8% |
| Akshay Bhatia | 11.0% | 4.6% |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 4.0% | 1.4% |
| Wyndham Clark | 38.0% | 25.1% |
| Brian Campbell | 14.0% | 6.3% |
| Si Woo Kim | 74.0% | 66.2% |
| J.J. Spaun | 33.0% | 20.5% |
| Michael Brennan | 53.0% | 40.8% |
| Jason Day | 26.0% | 14.6% |
| J.T. Poston | 15.0% | 6.9% |
| Adam Schenk | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| Shane Lowry | 21.0% | 10.8% |
| Tom Hoge | 9.0% | 3.6% |
| Tony Finau | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| Corey Conners | 53.0% | 40.8% |
| Keegan Bradley | 47.0% | 34.2% |
| Harris English | 77.0% | 70.0% |
| David Lipsky | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| Sungjae Im | 53.0% | 40.8% |
| Kurt Kitayama | 33.0% | 20.5% |
| Andrew Putnam | 13.0% | 5.7% |
| Harry Hall | 26.0% | 14.6% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 25.0% | 13.8% |
| Chandler Blanchet | 14.0% | 6.3% |
| Rickie Fowler | 68.0% | 58.6% |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 9.0% | 3.6% |
| Marco Penge | 10.0% | 4.1% |
| Denny McCarthy | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Pierceson Coody | 22.0% | 11.5% |
| Sam Stevens | 24.0% | 13.0% |
| Min Woo Lee | 29.0% | 17.0% |
| Ben Griffin | 30.0% | 17.9% |
| Ryan Fox | 49.0% | 36.4% |
| Bud Cauley | 30.0% | 17.9% |
| Michael Kim | 21.0% | 10.8% |
| Matt Wallace | 21.0% | 10.8% |
| Nick Taylor | 26.0% | 14.6% |
| Ryan Gerard | 10.0% | 4.1% |
| Alex Noren | 13.0% | 5.7% |
| William Mouw | 20.0% | 10.1% |
| Austin Smotherman | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Matthew McCarty | 26.0% | 14.6% |
| Sami Valimaki | 28.0% | 16.2% |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Ricky Castillo | 7.0% | 2.7% |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 19.0% | 9.4% |
| Lucas Glover | 13.0% | 5.7% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 15.0% | 6.9% |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| Billy Horschel | 6.0% | 2.2% |
| Taylor Pendrith | 5.0% | 1.8% |
| Steven Fisk | 14.0% | 6.3% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 22.0% | 11.5% |
| Karl Vilips | 8.0% | 3.1% |
| Garrick Higgo | 7.0% | 2.7% |

- Expiration: May 17, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market shows a strong and rapid upward trend, beginning at a 13.0% probability and currently trading near its peak at 89.0%. The price action is defined by two major spikes. The first occurred on April 13, 2026, when the price jumped 38 percentage points from 13.0% to 51.0%. A second, even larger spike of 41 percentage points happened on April 16, 2026, pushing the price from 49.0% to 90.0%. Given the market's topic is a golf tournament finishing in 2026, these sharp movements are almost certainly reactions to real-time performance during the event itself. Without specific context on individual rounds or player performance, the chart implies two separate instances of very positive results that dramatically increased the perceived likelihood of a Top 20 finish.

The trading volume provides further insight into market conviction. The initial price of 13.0% saw no volume, but the first major price jump was accompanied by trading activity, as seen by the 545 contracts traded on April 15. The total volume of 33,137 contracts indicates a liquid market where these price moves were supported by significant participation. This suggests that the rapid increases were not speculative blips but were driven by a strong consensus forming among traders. The initial price of 13.0% served as a floor before the breakout, while the 50% level was quickly surpassed, indicating strong bullish momentum.

Overall, the chart reflects a swift and decisive shift in market sentiment. What began as a low-probability event (13.0%) has transformed into a near-certainty in the eyes of the market, with the current price hovering around 90.0%. The sharp, vertical price increases, backed by substantial volume, suggest the market is reacting to highly favorable developments for the subject of the contract during the RBC Heritage tournament. The current price level near 90-95% is acting as a new ceiling, indicating the market believes the outcome is highly likely but not yet fully resolved.

## Significant Price Movements

### Outcome: Ludvig Aberg

#### 📈 April 16, 2026: 41.0pp spike

Price increased from 49.0% to 90.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

#### 📈 April 13, 2026: 38.0pp spike

Price increased from 13.0% to 51.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

### Outcome: Daniel Berger

#### 📈 April 14, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 21.0% to 30.0%

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 RBC Heritage. It resolves to "No" if he does not meet this condition, or if he withdraws/forfeits after teeing off; however, if he withdraws, forfeits, or does not participate prior to teeing off, the market resolves to Fair Market Price. The market opens on April 13, 2026, closes after the outcome or by May 16, 2026, and projected payouts occur 5 minutes after closing.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Akshay Bhatia | 7% | 17% | 11% | $15,532.31 | $14,587.79 |
| Alex Noren | 0% | 12% | 13% | $1,870.97 | $1,843.97 |
| Andrew Novak | 51% | 57% | 57% | $24,126.16 | $21,952.5 |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 16% | 25% | 25% | $5,854.14 | $5,764.14 |
| Andrew Putnam | 11% | 44% | 13% | $6,393.99 | $5,573.99 |
| Adam Schenk | 0% | 9% | 6% | $11,063 | $11,063 |
| Austin Smotherman | 0% | 9% | 2% | $1,538.44 | $1,536.44 |
| Brian Campbell | 14% | 19% | 14% | $13,354.91 | $12,927.49 |
| Bud Cauley | 29% | 33% | 30% | $2,974.63 | $2,974.63 |
| Ben Griffin | 26% | 33% | 30% | $3,670.78 | $3,283.06 |
| Brian Harman | 14% | 20% | 19% | $41,379.53 | $39,687.86 |
| Billy Horschel | 6% | 10% | 6% | $696 | $636 |
| Cameron Young | 35% | 38% | 38% | $34,769.83 | $30,238.29 |
| Chandler Blanchet | 0% | 9% | 14% | $5,682 | $5,682 |
| Corey Conners | 47% | 54% | 53% | $8,898.36 | $7,893.88 |
| Chris Gotterup | 19% | 22% | 22% | $32,711.36 | $32,197.07 |
| Collin Morikawa | 64% | 70% | 70% | $18,562.32 | $15,357.55 |
| Daniel Berger | 39% | 46% | 50% | $16,593.99 | $14,818.99 |
| David Lipsky | 0% | 9% | 6% | $8,255.37 | $8,165.37 |
| Denny McCarthy | 0% | 9% | 8% | $4,113 | $4,091 |
| Garrick Higgo | 0% | 33% | 7% | $128 | $128 |
| Gary Woodland | 50% | 53% | 53% | $15,987.71 | $14,363.71 |
| Harris English | 73% | 77% | 77% | $8,499.65 | $7,414.09 |
| Harry Hall | 19% | 24% | 26% | $5,882.77 | $5,871.77 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | 0% | 10% | 4% | $21,934.63 | $21,445.26 |
| Jason Day | 25% | 30% | 26% | $11,758.85 | $11,233.57 |
| Joe Highsmith | 13% | 20% | 15% | $19,728.13 | $18,255.13 |
| John Keefer | 9% | 14% | 11% | $38,649.01 | $38,430.7 |
| Jake Knapp | 26% | 29% | 28% | $35,375.53 | $34,164.33 |
| J.T. Poston | 13% | 17% | 15% | $11,151.34 | $10,922.34 |
| Jordan L. Smith | 17% | 23% | 22% | $291 | $291 |
| J.J. Spaun | 32% | 34% | 33% | $12,703.66 | $10,248.42 |
| Jordan Spieth | 36% | 41% | 40% | $113,061.38 | $106,722.94 |
| Justin Thomas | 0% | 10% | 10% | $26,596.21 | $25,885.31 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 0% | 30% | 8% | $1,205.69 | $1,205.69 |
| Keegan Bradley | 42% | 47% | 47% | $8,820.31 | $7,533.28 |
| Kurt Kitayama | 23% | 28% | 33% | $7,930.74 | $6,234.74 |
| Karl Vilips | 0% | 9% | 8% | $263 | $263 |
| Ludvig Aberg | 87% | 89% | 89% | $33,256.26 | $26,652.89 |
| Lucas Glover | 9% | 18% | 13% | $1,095.95 | $1,035.95 |
| Michael Brennan | 51% | 54% | 53% | $12,371.53 | $12,095.55 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 85% | 88% | 88% | $21,761.33 | $20,104.31 |
| Max Homa | 16% | 22% | 20% | $16,470.76 | $13,676.07 |
| Michael Kim | 0% | 41% | 21% | $2,646 | $2,146 |
| Min Woo Lee | 22% | 31% | 29% | $3,683.57 | $3,451.42 |
| Matthew McCarty | 24% | 28% | 26% | $1,500.02 | $1,490.02 |
| Maverick McNealy | 7% | 16% | 9% | $17,447.48 | $16,821.48 |
| Marco Penge | 0% | 9% | 10% | $4,328.39 | $4,295.39 |
| Michael Thorbjornsen | 13% | 23% | 19% | $1,117.63 | $1,117.63 |
| Matt Wallace | 19% | 23% | 21% | $2,637.85 | $2,137.85 |
| Nicolas Echavarria | 0% | 9% | 2% | $943.5 | $942.5 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 6% | 23% | 9% | $4,481.18 | $3,962.36 |
| Nick Taylor | 24% | 35% | 26% | $2,473 | $2,456 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 51% | 55% | 55% | $59,069.26 | $56,936 |
| Pierceson Coody | 0% | 39% | 22% | $3,971.59 | $3,971.59 |
| Patrick Rodgers | 12% | 15% | 15% | $943.51 | $856.51 |
| Ricky Castillo | 6% | 14% | 7% | $1,134.76 | $954 |
| Rickie Fowler | 37% | 82% | 68% | $4,609.84 | $4,239.26 |
| Ryan Fox | 28% | 78% | 49% | $3,661.72 | $3,652.95 |
| Ryan Gerard | 5% | 10% | 10% | $2,020.76 | $2,020.76 |
| Russell Henley | 65% | 68% | 67% | $20,253.9 | $17,115.73 |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 2% | 9% | 4% | $14,120.42 | $13,797.31 |
| Robert MacIntyre | 66% | 69% | 69% | $16,324.2 | $16,214.2 |
| Sam Burns | 29% | 32% | 31% | $26,862.8 | $26,060.6 |
| Steven Fisk | 9% | 14% | 14% | $310 | $310 |
| Sungjae Im | 50% | 52% | 53% | $8,132.13 | $8,089.13 |
| Shane Lowry | 22% | 30% | 21% | $10,266.18 | $9,175.84 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 83% | 86% | 86% | $46,312.35 | $43,927.12 |
| Sam Stevens | 0% | 45% | 24% | $3,701.25 | $3,626 |
| Sepp Straka | 55% | 58% | 60% | $17,004.86 | $15,757.86 |
| Sahith Theegala | 25% | 29% | 28% | $20,962.89 | $15,280 |
| Sami Valimaki | 26% | 53% | 28% | $1,492 | $1,271 |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 4% | 9% | 6% | $211,571.49 | $191,361.71 |
| Tony Finau | 0% | 10% | 3% | $9,670.99 | $9,621.99 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 5% | 9% | 9% | $53,973.77 | $47,113.98 |
| Tom Hoge | 0% | 9% | 9% | $10,199.13 | $10,136.13 |
| Taylor Pendrith | 0% | 9% | 5% | $594 | $594 |
| Viktor Hovland | 75% | 78% | 78% | $18,167.29 | $14,166.48 |
| Wyndham Clark | 32% | 38% | 38% | $13,435.86 | $13,367.86 |
| Si Woo Kim | 72% | 74% | 74% | $13,118.76 | $12,279.95 |
| William Mouw | 0% | 50% | 20% | $1,663.97 | $1,563.97 |
| Xander Schauffele | 58% | 61% | 60% | $18,049.66 | $17,161.66 |

## Why Can't Specific Golfer Performance Data Be Compiled?

Historical Harbour Town Performance | Strokes Gained: Total over five appearances [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2026/rbc-heritage/R2026012/past-results?deviceId=818c1690-9c04-4437-9b13-3b9d6e643ba9), [[^]](https://datagolf.com/past-results/pga-tour/12/) |
Recent Strokes Gained: Approach | Top 25 PGA Tour rankings in the three months prior [[^]](https://datagolf.com/stats/tour-lists?sg=raw), [[^]](https://datagolf.com/stats) |
Definitive Golfer List | Unavailable without direct content access from identified web sources [[^]](https://thegolfnewsnet.com/golfnewsnetteam/2026/04/13/2026-rbc-heritage-field-pga-tour-players-rankings-142108/). |

**A definitive list of golfers meeting criteria cannot be generated**

A definitive list of golfers meeting criteria cannot be generated. This is due to the inability to directly access and process the content of the identified web page URLs, preventing the compilation of a precise list. To fulfill the research request, the process would involve gathering the tournament field and then cross-referencing two distinct sets of statistical data from various online sources.

Identifying historical performance requires compiling player field and past results. To determine golfers with a positive Strokes Gained: Total at Harbour Town Golf Links over their last five appearances, one must first compile the field for the 2026 RBC Heritage. This can be done using various sources such as "2026 RBC Heritage field: PGA Tour players, rankings" [[^]](https://thegolfnewsnet.com/golfnewsnetteam/2026/04/13/2026-rbc-heritage-field-pga-tour-players-rankings-142108/), "RBC Heritage 2026: Tee times, pairings for first round at Harbour Town" [[^]](https://www.golfchannel.com/pga-tour/news/rbc-heritage-2026-tee-times-pairings-for-first-round-at-harbour-town), "RBC Heritage Field 2026: Full Player List, Withdrawals" [[^]](https://heavy.com/sports/golf/rbc-heritage-classic-field-2026-players/), and "RBC Heritage 2026 Golf Leaderboard - PGA TOUR - Leaderboard Field - Qualification" [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2026/rbc-heritage/R2026012/field). Following this, detailed historical performance data, including Strokes Gained: Total for each player at Harbour Town, would need to be extracted from resources like "RBC Heritage 2026 Golf Leaderboard - PGA TOUR - Past Results" [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2026/rbc-heritage/R2026012/past-results?deviceId=818c1690-9c04-4437-9b13-3b9d6e643ba9) and "RBC Heritage | Records and Stats | Data Golf" [[^]](https://datagolf.com/past-results/pga-tour/12/) to calculate the positive average over those five events.

Recent Strokes Gained: Approach rankings must also be identified. Concurrently, to identify golfers ranking in the top 25 on the PGA Tour for Strokes Gained: Approach in the three months leading up to the tournament, statistical databases like "2026 PGA Tour Strokes Gained | Data Golf" [[^]](https://datagolf.com/stats/tour-lists?sg=raw) and [[^]](https://datagolf.com/stats) would be necessary. These sources would enable filtering for the specified three-month window and identifying the top 25 players based on Strokes Gained: Approach statistics. Once both sets of data—historical performance at Harbour Town and recent Strokes Gained: Approach ranking—are compiled, a final cross-reference would pinpoint the players who satisfy both criteria. Without the ability to browse and process the specific data within these live web pages, a precise list of golfers cannot be provided.

## Can Golfer RBC Heritage Improvements Be Compared to Season Average?

Comparative Season Data Availability | Not explicitly available for golfer improvement analysis [[^]](https://datagolf.com/historical-tournament-stats?event_id=12&year=2025) |
RBC Heritage Tournament Results | Historically well-documented for 2023 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2023/rbc-heritage/R2023012/past-results), 2024 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2024/rbc-heritage/R2024012/past-results), and 2025 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2025/rbc-heritage/R2025012/past-results) |
Requirement for Improvement Analysis | Player season average finishing positions across all events needed [[^]](https://datagolf.com/historical-tournament-stats?event_id=12&year=2025) |

**Direct comparison of player improvement is not currently feasible**

Direct comparison of player improvement is not currently feasible. Identifying golfers who improved their finishing position at the RBC Heritage compared to their season average over the past three years (2023-2025) is not possible with the existing research findings. This analysis specifically requires comprehensive data on each player's season average finishing position for those years to establish a baseline. However, this particular comparative data is not explicitly available within the provided sources or research results [[^]](https://datagolf.com/historical-tournament-stats?event_id=12&year=2025).

Historical RBC Heritage tournament results are readily accessible. While season average comparative data is unavailable, detailed historical finishing positions for the RBC Heritage tournament itself are confirmed to be well-documented. Leaderboard and past results for the 2023 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2023/rbc-heritage/R2023012/past-results), 2024 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2024/rbc-heritage/R2024012/past-results), and 2025 [[^]](https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2025/rbc-heritage/R2025012/past-results) RBC Heritage tournaments can be found through various outlets, including the PGA TOUR and Data Golf records [[^]](https://datagolf.com/past-results/pga-tour/12/2025). To perform the detailed analysis requested—determining improvement against a season average—one would specifically need access to each player's overall season statistics to establish a baseline average finishing position. Without this corresponding season average data for each player across all events, a direct comparison for "improvement" cannot be conclusively determined based solely on the current information [[^]](https://datagolf.com/historical-tournament-stats?event_id=12&year=2025).

## What are Golfers' Current Top 20 Finish Probabilities for RBC Heritage?

Scottie Scheffler Top 20 Probability | 66% (Polymarket) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-rbc-heritage-top20) |
Xander Schauffele Top 20 Probability | 55% (Polymarket) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-rbc-heritage-top20) |
Patrick Cantlay Top 20 Probability | 53% (Polymarket) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-rbc-heritage-top20) |

**No specific historical line movement data is available from European sportsbooks**

No specific historical line movement data is available from European sportsbooks. Research does not detail which golfers have experienced significant positive line movement (odds shortening) in the 'Top 20 Finish' markets on major European sportsbooks since the conclusion of the previous week's major. The primary focus of the available sources is on current odds and general predictions for the 2026 RBC Heritage, rather than an analysis of historical line movement from specific European bookmakers [[^]](https://www.golfchannel.com/pga-tour/news/rbc-heritage-2026-odds-favorites-best-bets-props-predictions).

Current Top 20 finish predictions are available from certain platforms. While precise line movement data is absent, current predictions for a 'Top 20 Finish' at the 2026 RBC Heritage can be observed. For example, Polymarket currently assesses Scottie Scheffler with a **66%** chance of a Top 20 finish, making him the most favored for this outcome. Other golfers with high probabilities for a Top 20 finish include Xander Schauffele at **55%**, Patrick Cantlay at **53%**, and Collin Morikawa at **50%** [[^]](https://polymarket.com/event/2026-rbc-heritage-top20).

## What Data Gaps Prevent Identifying Specific Golf Players?

Prior Top 20 Finishes | None of the listed sources [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/rankings/) through [[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/stats/player/_/season/2026/table/general/sort/driveAccuracyPct/dir/desc) provide historical tournament results for Harbour Town. |
Good Drives Gained Stats | Not explicitly listed as available for direct retrieval from sources [[^]](https://new.cbssports.com/golf/stats), [[^]](http://www.cbssports.com/golf/stats?DB_OEM_ID=26800), [[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/stats/player/_/season/2026/table/general/sort/yardsPerDrive/dir/desc), and [[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/stats/player/_/season/2026/table/general/sort/driveAccuracyPct/dir/desc). |
Player Rankings & Scrambling | Detailed player lists for OWGR [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/rankings/), [[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/rankings), [[^]](https://thegolfnewsnet.com/golfnewsnetteam/2026/04/13/2026-rbc-heritage-field-pga-tour-players-rankings-142108/) and 'Scrambling' [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/golf/pga-tour/stats?category=advanced&groupId=1&season=2026&sort=scr_pct&sortOrder=desc), [[^]](https://new.cbssports.com/golf/stats/pga-tour/scrambling/), [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/stats/pga-tour/scrambling/) require URL parsing. |

**The requested player identification could not be fully completed**

The requested player identification could not be fully completed. Identifying specific players who meet all the specified criteria is not fully achievable due to significant data limitations within the provided web research results. Comprehensive player statistics and historical tournament performance, essential for such an analysis, were not presented in a readily extractable format. Crucially, data points such as 'Prior Top 20 Finishes at Harbour Town' are absent from the listed sources [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/rankings/) through [[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/stats/player/_/season/2026/table/general/sort/driveAccuracyPct/dir/desc).

Several critical data points were not readily available. The advanced metric 'Good Drives Gained' is not explicitly accessible for direct retrieval from sources [[^]](https://new.cbssports.com/golf/stats), [[^]](http://www.cbssports.com/golf/stats?DB_OEM_ID=26800), [[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/stats/player/_/season/2026/table/general/sort/yardsPerDrive/dir/desc), and [[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/stats/player/_/season/2026/table/general/sort/driveAccuracyPct/dir/desc), which are described as referring to general PGA Tour statistics and driving metrics. Furthermore, to identify players based on their Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/rankings/), [[^]](https://www.espn.com/golf/rankings), [[^]](https://thegolfnewsnet.com/golfnewsnetteam/2026/04/13/2026-rbc-heritage-field-pga-tour-players-rankings-142108/) or top quartile performance in 'Scrambling' [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/golf/pga-tour/stats?category=advanced&groupId=1&season=2026&sort=scr_pct&sortOrder=desc), [[^]](https://new.cbssports.com/golf/stats/pga-tour/scrambling/), [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/golf/stats/pga-tour/scrambling/) for the 2026 season, a detailed compilation of player lists and their corresponding statistics would necessitate direct access and processing of the content from the provided URLs. Without the ability to parse these links for comprehensive player-specific data, it is not feasible to identify any players who satisfy all criteria.

## What Weather Advantage Does the Late/Early Wave Hold?

Projected Stroke Advantage | More than 0.5 strokes for late/early wave [[^]](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/pga/rbc-heritage-2026-weather-forecast-rain-wind-temperatures-harbour-town-golf-links-bm10/) |
Friday Morning Conditions (Late/Early Wave) | Consistent winds 10-15 mph; lower chance of rain [[^]](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/pga/rbc-heritage-2026-weather-forecast-rain-wind-temperatures-harbour-town-golf-links-bm10/) |
Friday Afternoon Conditions (Early/Late Wave) | 30-40% chance of scattered showers, gusts up to 20 mph [[^]](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/pga/rbc-heritage-2026-weather-forecast-rain-wind-temperatures-harbour-town-golf-links-bm10/) |

**The late/early wave is projected to hold a stroke advantage of more than 0.5 strokes based on detailed Thursday and Friday forecasts for Hilton Head Island**

The late/early wave is projected to hold a stroke advantage of more than 0.5 strokes based on detailed Thursday and Friday forecasts for Hilton Head Island. On Thursday, conditions are anticipated to be mostly clear with no precipitation for players in both waves [[^]](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/pga/rbc-heritage-2026-weather-forecast-rain-wind-temperatures-harbour-town-golf-links-bm10/). The early wave, scheduled for Thursday morning, is expected to experience lighter winds of 5-10 mph, while the late wave, playing Thursday afternoon, will face slightly stronger winds ranging from 10-15 mph [[^]](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/pga/rbc-heritage-2026-weather-forecast-rain-wind-temperatures-harbour-town-golf-links-bm10/). This marginal difference alone is unlikely to establish a significant stroke advantage.

Friday's afternoon weather presents the key competitive differential impacting player performance. For the late/early wave, who will play on Friday morning, conditions are expected to be partly cloudy with consistent winds of 10-15 mph and a lower chance of precipitation [[^]](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/pga/rbc-heritage-2026-weather-forecast-rain-wind-temperatures-harbour-town-golf-links-bm10/). In contrast, the early/late wave, scheduled for Friday afternoon, faces a 30-**40%** **probability** of scattered showers and potential wind gusts of up to 20 mph during those precipitation events, although baseline winds will remain 10-15 mph [[^]](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/pga/rbc-heritage-2026-weather-forecast-rain-wind-temperatures-harbour-town-golf-links-bm10/).

Avoiding Friday afternoon's adverse weather provides a substantial benefit, leading to the projected advantage. The higher chance of precipitation and accompanying gusty winds for the early/late wave on Friday afternoon presents a more significant challenge compared to the relatively stable conditions forecast for the late/early wave on Friday morning. Navigating intermittent rain and stronger, more variable gusts can substantially increase scoring difficulty. Consequently, the late/early wave is projected to hold an advantage exceeding 0.5 strokes due to encountering more favorable and consistent weather, primarily by avoiding the increased potential for adverse conditions expected during Friday afternoon [[^]](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/pga/rbc-heritage-2026-weather-forecast-rain-wind-temperatures-harbour-town-golf-links-bm10/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** May 17, 2026
- **Closes:** May 17, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 1 resolved YES, 18 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXPGATOP20-RBH26-JROS: SCALAR (Apr 15, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-MAST26-GAW: NO (Apr 12, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-MAST26-DAW: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-MAST26-MIW: NO (Apr 10, 2026)
- KXPGATOP20-MAST26-BUW: NO (Apr 10, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.