# Team Vitality vs. Eternal Fire Team Vitality vs. Eternal Fire (Apr 16) Updated: April 14, 2026 Category: Sports Tags: Esports HTML: /markets/sports/esports/team-vitality-vs-eternal-fire/ ## Short Answer **Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Team Vitality to win, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - ZywOo holds a superior 1.34 K/D ratio; XANTARES' is 1.13.** - ZywOo was ranked #1 player in 2025; XANTARES #14 overall. - Eternal Fire boasts a **62.5%** Anubis win rate over eight recent maps. - Vitality's recent Anubis win rate is **50%** across six maps. - Detailed map veto patterns are unavailable for a decider map prediction. - **Market** saw a 10.0pp price spike on April 13, 2026. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **72.7%** **probability** is 3.7pp above 69c **market**, reflecting ZywOo's superior individual performance. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Eternal Fire | 31.0% | 27.3% | Market higher by 3.7pp | | Team Vitality | 69.0% | 72.7% | Model higher by 3.7pp | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Eternal Fire | 31.0% | 27.3% | | Team Vitality | 69.0% | 72.7% | - Expiration: April 30, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This prediction market, which will resolve to 'YES' if Team Vitality wins, has been trading in a sideways pattern, suggesting a period of price consolidation. The market opened with a 71% probability for a Vitality win and has since traded within a defined range of 69% to 82%. An early spike to the high of 82% occurred on zero volume, indicating it was likely an illiquid, unrepresentative price point rather than a shift in broad market sentiment. The price then settled at 69% on the first day of meaningful trading, establishing the lower bound of the current range. The current price of 69% sits at this low end, slightly below the opening price. The trading range has established a clear support level at 69%, which has been the floor for the contract's price. The 82% level has acted as a resistance point, though its validity is weakened by the lack of volume when it was set. The total traded volume of 591 contracts is moderate, suggesting a reasonable level of engagement but no overwhelming conviction driving the price in a specific direction. The sideways price action implies that while the market views Team Vitality as the favorite, there is uncertainty or a lack of new information to justify pushing the probability higher or lower. The current price hovering at the support level suggests sentiment may be slightly less confident than when the market first opened. ## Significant Price Movements #### 📈 April 13, 2026: 10.0pp spike Price increased from 18.0% to 28.0% **Outcome:** Eternal Fire **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot A YES resolution occurs if Team Vitality wins the VCT EMEA 2026: Team Vitality vs. Eternal Fire Valorant match, originally scheduled for April 16, 2026, at 11:00 AM EDT. Conversely, a NO resolution occurs if Team Vitality does not win the match, as this is a mutually exclusive event. The market will close after the outcome is declared or by April 30, 2026, 11:00 AM EDT, with the outcome verified by VALORANT Esports and Gamers World. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Eternal Fire | 28% | 31% | 31% | $1,500 | $1,489 | | Team Vitality | 69% | 72% | 69% | $591 | $573 | ## How Do ZywOo and XANTARES Overall CS2 Stats Compare? ZywOo K/D Ratio | 1.34 [[^]](https://rdy.gg/en/cs2/players/108) | ZywOo Average Damage per Round (ADR) | 86.6 [[^]](https://rdy.gg/en/cs2/players/108) | ZywOo Opening Duel Win Rate | 63.2% [[^]](https://rdy.gg/en/cs2/players/108) | **Precise head-to-head statistics for ZywOo and XANTARES are not available** Precise head-to-head statistics for ZywOo and XANTARES are not available. Specific aggregated statistics for K/D ratio, ADR, and opening duel win rate over their last 10 official matches against top-20 ranked opponents are not readily accessible. However, an overall comparison of their Counter-Strike 2 performance metrics reveals a differential, with Vitality's Mathieu "ZywOo" Herbaut generally demonstrating superior statistics compared to Eternal Fire's İsmailсan "XANTARES" Dörtkardeş. ZywOo consistently outperforms XANTARES in key CS2 metrics. ZywOo boasts an overall CS2 K/D ratio of 1.34, an Average Damage per Round (ADR) of 86.6, and an opening duel win rate of **63.2%** [[^]](https://rdy.gg/en/cs2/players/108). In contrast, XANTARES holds an overall CS2 K/D ratio of 1.13, an ADR of 80.8, and an opening duel win rate of **59.9%** [[^]](https://rdy.gg/en/cs2/players/161). These figures indicate ZywOo typically performs at a higher level across these individual performance metrics. Player rankings further highlight ZywOo's statistical advantage in overall play. The difference in general performance is additionally supported by their recognized player rankings, with ZywOo being named the #1 player in the Top 20 players of 2025, while XANTARES was ranked #14 in the same year [[^]](https://www.hltv.org/news/43524/top-20-players-of-2025-xantares-14). Although these statistics are general and not specific to head-to-head encounters within the last 10 matches against top-20 opponents, they provide a strong comparative baseline for their individual capabilities. ## Can a Statistically Most Likely Decider Map Be Identified? Team Vitality Anubis Win Rate | 50% (over 6 maps in last 3 months) [[^]](https://www.hltv.org/team/9565/vitality) | Eternal Fire Anubis Win Rate | 62.5% (across 8 maps in last 3 months) [[^]](https://www.hltv.org/team/11251/eternal-fire) | Decider Map Determination | Not possible due to lack of veto pattern data [[^]](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2375423/vitality-vs-eternal-fire-esl-pro-league-season-20) | **Veto patterns are unavailable, preventing a decider map prediction** Veto patterns are unavailable, preventing a decider map prediction. The provided web research does not contain the detailed map veto patterns from each team's last 10 best-of-three series, which are necessary to statistically determine the most likely decider map [[^]](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2375423/vitality-vs-eternal-fire-esl-pro-league-season-20). While general team statistics and individual match outcomes are present, the comprehensive history of map bans and picks required for a veto pattern analysis is not available in the provided sources. Consequently, identifying a statistically most likely decider map is not possible based on the research. Recent map performance offers insight into team strengths. Although a decider map cannot be predicted, an analysis of both teams' recent map performance over the last three months provides information on their map-specific abilities. For example, considering Anubis as a potential decider map, Team Vitality achieved a **50%** win rate across 6 maps played in the last 3 months [[^]](https://www.hltv.org/team/9565/vitality). In the same period, Eternal Fire demonstrated a **62.5%** win rate on Anubis over 8 maps played [[^]](https://www.hltv.org/team/11251/eternal-fire). For Vertigo, another common map, Vitality also holds a **50%** win rate over 6 maps, while Eternal Fire maintains a **57.1%** win rate across 7 maps in the last 3 months [[^]](https://www.hltv.org/team/9565/vitality). ## What Are Team Vitality and Eternal Fire's Key Map Statistics? Vitality's Most Common Map Pick | Not available in research (Requires analysis from competitive esports platforms [[^]](https://csdb.gg/team/vitality/)) | Vitality's T-side Round Win Percentage | Not available in research (Requires retrieval from statistical sources [[^]](https://csdb.gg/team/vitality/)) | Eternal Fire's CT-side Hold Percentage on Same Map | Not available in research (Requires retrieval from statistical sources [[^]](https://www.hltv.org/team/11251/eternal-fire)) | **The specific statistics are unavailable for direct comparison based on current research** The specific statistics are unavailable for direct comparison based on current research. The detailed statistics required to compare Team Vitality's T-side round win percentage on their most common map pick with Eternal Fire's CT-side hold percentage on that same map were not present within the provided web research results. Without these precise percentages, a direct comparison between Team Vitality and Eternal Fire's performance on the specified metrics cannot be factually given based on the current research. Answering this question requires multi-step data retrieval from esports platforms. A comprehensive analysis would first involve identifying Team Vitality's most played or most successful map using data from competitive esports platforms [[^]](https://csdb.gg/team/vitality/). Following this, Vitality's T-side round win percentage on that specific map and Eternal Fire's CT-side round win percentage on the exact same map would need to be retrieved from similar detailed statistical sources [[^]](https://csdb.gg/team/vitality/). ## Which Team Has Higher Force-Buy Win Rate After Pistol Loss? Team Vitality Force-Buy Win Rate After Pistol Loss | Data not directly aggregated [[^]](https://www.hltv.org/team/9565/vitality) | Eternal Fire Force-Buy Win Rate After Pistol Loss | Data not directly aggregated [[^]](https://www.hltv.org/team/9565/vitality) | Required Analysis for Metric | Detailed round-by-round analysis of last 10 matches [[^]](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2378456/vitality-vs-eternal-fire-blast-bounty-2025-season-1-finals) | **Specific 'force-buy' win percentage data for teams is currently unavailable** Specific 'force-buy' win percentage data for teams is currently unavailable. The requested metric, comparing Team Vitality and Eternal Fire's win percentage in 'force-buy' rounds after losing a pistol round across their last 10 matches, cannot be determined from the provided web research sources. While HLTV.org team overview pages offer general team statistics, match histories, and individual player performance, they do not aggregate a specific 'force-buy win rate after pistol round loss' [[^]](https://www.hltv.org/team/9565/vitality). Calculating this metric requires extensive round-by-round match analysis. To accurately determine this statistic, a detailed, round-by-round examination of each team's last 10 matches would be necessary. This process would involve analyzing every map within those matches to identify instances where a pistol round was lost and then verifying the outcome of the subsequent 'force-buy' round. Granular, summarized data for this particular scenario is not present in general team overviews or individual match links, which primarily focus on broader match outcomes and schedules [[^]](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2378456/vitality-vs-eternal-fire-blast-bounty-2025-season-1-finals). Consequently, based solely on the available sources, it is not possible to ascertain which team has a higher win percentage in these specific rounds [[^]](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2378456/vitality-vs-eternal-fire-blast-bounty-2025-season-1-finals). ## Were Specific Esports Odds Movements Tracked for Vitality vs. Eternal Fire? Specific Moneyline Odds Movement | Not available for Team Vitality vs [[^]](https://www.vlr.gg/644724/ulf-esports-vs-team-vitality-vct-2026-emea-stage-1-w3). Eternal Fire match on April 16 (web research results) [[^]](https://www.thespike.gg/valorant/news/ulf-esports-removed-from-vct-emea-as-eternal-fire-takes-over-roster/7802) | Eternal Fire Team Replacement | Replaced ULF Esports in VCT EMEA [[^]](https://www.thespike.gg/valorant/news/ulf-esports-removed-from-vct-emea-as-eternal-fire-takes-over-roster/7802) | Eternal Fire Player Departure | Ukrainian player left main roster in June 2024 [[^]](https://sport.ua/uk/news/858947-poshuki-stabilnosti-trivayut-ukrainets-zalishiv-osnovniy-sklad-eternal-fire) | **Specific moneyline odds movement for the 'Team Vitality vs** Specific moneyline odds movement for the 'Team Vitality vs. Eternal Fire' match could not be determined. The provided research did not yield data on moneyline odds movement from sharp, high-limit esports betting sites, such as Pinnacle, for the 'Team Vitality vs. Eternal Fire' match resolving on April 16. Although a tool was mentioned as a potential source for such information [[^]](https://www.pinnacleoddsdropper.com/), no specific odds data or historical trajectories were extracted from it or similar platforms. Consequently, it is not possible to describe how the odds for this particular match moved since the **market** opened. Two significant team announcements potentially influenced **market** perceptions. Despite the absence of specific odds data, two relevant team announcements were identified that could generally influence **market** perceptions, though their direct correlation with specific odds movement for the April 16 match cannot be established. Eternal Fire officially replaced ULF Esports in VCT EMEA [[^]](https://www.thespike.gg/valorant/news/ulf-esports-removed-from-vct-emea-as-eternal-fire-takes-over-roster/7802), an organizational change that would likely have shifted initial **market** expectations for matches involving the new Eternal Fire roster. Additionally, news surfaced regarding a Ukrainian player departing Eternal Fire's main roster in June 2024 [[^]](https://sport.ua/uk/news/858947-poshuki-stabilnosti-trivayut-ukrainets-zalishiv-osnovniy-sklad-eternal-fire). The impact of such roster changes on odds would depend on the player's role and the timing of the announcement relative to the April 16 match **market** opening; however, without the actual odds data, a direct correlation to specific moneyline movements for that match cannot be drawn. ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** April 30, 2026 - **Closes:** April 30, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [CB Malaga vs Bilbao Basket](/markets/sports/basketball/cb-malaga-vs-bilbao-basket/) - [Olimpia vs Luqueno](/markets/sports/soccer/olimpia-vs-luqueno/) - [Trinidense vs CD Recoleta](/markets/sports/soccer/trinidense-vs-cd-recoleta/) - [Feldbausch vs Kingsley](/markets/sports/tennis/feldbausch-vs-kingsley/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXVALORANTGAME-26APR131330FULVR2-VR2: YES (Apr 13, 2026) - KXVALORANTGAME-26APR131330FULVR2-FUL: NO (Apr 13, 2026) - KXVALORANTGAME-26APR131330XDMIR-XD: NO (Apr 13, 2026) - KXVALORANTGAME-26APR131330XDMIR-MIR: YES (Apr 13, 2026) - KXVALORANTGAME-26APR131330NAVIJPL-PL: NO (Apr 13, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.