# West Play-In: Portland at Phoenix

POR at PHX (Apr 14)

Updated: April 13, 2026

Category: Sports

Tags: Basketball

HTML: /markets/sports/basketball/west-play-in-portland-at-phoenix/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Phoenix to win the West Play-In game against Portland, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Devin Booker's injury status has been inconsistent, impacting availability.** - Deandre Ayton showed low offensive rebounding against his former team.
- The Play-In game point spread remained notably stable.
- Phoenix's bench unit posted a higher net rating over 20 games.
- Suns' home clutch offensive rating reached 112.5 in 2025-26.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** At 60c, the **market** prices Phoenix **0.6%** higher than the **model**, suggesting slight overvaluation despite Devin Booker's ankle issue.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Phoenix | 60.0% | 59.4% | Market higher by 0.6pp |
| Portland | 41.0% | 40.6% | Market higher by 0.4pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Phoenix | 60.0% | 59.4% |
| Portland | 41.0% | 40.6% |

- Expiration: April 29, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

Based on the chart data, this market has exhibited a very stable, sideways trading pattern. The price has been confined to an extremely narrow range between 60.0% and 62.0% probability for a Phoenix victory. The primary movement has been a slight drift downwards from an opening price of 62.0% to the current price of 60.0%. Since no specific news or external context was provided, the reason for this minor decrease in probability is not apparent from the data alone and appears to be driven by general trading activity rather than a specific event.

The market has seen significant trading volume, with over 147,000 contracts traded, which suggests a high level of interest and conviction from participants. This high volume within such a tight price channel indicates a strong consensus among traders. The 62.0% level has acted as initial resistance, while the 60.0% mark is currently serving as a clear support level. The market is testing this support floor at present. Overall, the price action reflects a consistent and confident market sentiment that Phoenix is the favorite to win, with an implied probability holding steady at or just above 60%.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Phoenix wins the professional basketball game against Portland, originally scheduled for April 14, 2026, with the outcome verified by the Governing League (NBA.com). If Phoenix does not win, the market resolves to "No" as the event is mutually exclusive. The market opened on April 13, 2026, and will close after the game's outcome, or by April 28, 2026, at 10:00 pm EDT if no outcome is declared, with payouts projected 1 minute after closing.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Phoenix | 59% | 60% | 60% | $147,819 | $137,812 |
| Portland | 40% | 41% | 41% | $41,730 | $41,493 |

## What is Devin Booker's Recent Injury Status and Performance Data?

Current Injury Status | Questionable (ankle issue) [[^]](https://www.sportpreferred.com/news/devin-booker-listed-as-questionable-with-ankle-issue-suns-rest-star-before-2026-nba-play-in/12527) |
Recent Game Status | Ruled out vs. Lakers (injury management) [[^]](https://www.sportpreferred.com/nba/suns-vs-lakers-injury-update-devin-booker-ruled-out-jalen-green-questionable/12734) and Trail Blazers [[^]](https://arizonasports.com/nba/phoenix-suns/devin-booker-jalen-green-trail-blazers/3610443/) |
Historical PER/TS% Data | Not available from research for first two games post-soft-tissue injury [[^]](https://www.sportpreferred.com/nba/suns-vs-lakers-injury-update-devin-booker-ruled-out-jalen-green-questionable/12734) |

**Devin Booker's recent injury designations have varied, including being ruled out**

Devin Booker's recent injury designations have varied, including being ruled out. He has been listed as questionable due to an ankle issue [[^]](https://www.sportpreferred.com/news/devin-booker-listed-as-questionable-with-ankle-issue-suns-rest-star-before-2026-nba-play-in/12527) and was officially ruled out for several recent games, including against the Los Angeles Lakers for injury management [[^]](https://www.sportpreferred.com/nba/suns-vs-lakers-injury-update-devin-booker-ruled-out-jalen-green-questionable/12734) and against the Portland Trail Blazers [[^]](https://arizonasports.com/nba/phoenix-suns/devin-booker-jalen-green-trail-blazers/3610443/). While some reports also suggested he might be resting [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/devin-booker-dealing-serious-injury-180128039.html), his status has fluctuated, as he was noted to be absent from the injury report for a game against the Sacramento Kings [[^]](https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/nba/suns/2026/03/02/suns-injury-report-devin-booker/88953761007/).

Historical performance data for Booker's return games is unavailable from current sources. The provided web research results do not contain data regarding Devin Booker's historical Player Efficiency Rating (PER) or True Shooting Percentage (TS%) in the first two games back after missing time with a similar soft-tissue injury over the past two seasons. Consequently, this specific historical performance data cannot be provided from the available sources.

## How Did Ayton Perform Against Trail Blazers in 2025-26 Season?

Offensive Rebounding % vs Trail Blazers | 0.0% [[^]](https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202510270LAL.html) |
Usage Rate % vs Trail Blazers | 14.6% [[^]](https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202510270LAL.html) |
Overall Season Offensive Rebounding % | 7.9% [[^]](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aytonde01/splits/2026) |

**Deandre Ayton's single game against his former team revealed low offensive rebounding**

Deandre Ayton's single game against his former team revealed low offensive rebounding. In his head-to-head matchup against his former team, the Portland Trail Blazers, during the 2025-26 NBA season, Deandre Ayton recorded a notably low offensive rebounding percentage. Playing for the Los Angeles Lakers on October 27, 2025, Ayton's offensive rebounding percentage (ORB%) was **0.0%** [[^]](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aytonde01/gamelog/2026). His usage rate (USG%) for that specific game was **14.6%** [[^]](https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202510270LAL.html). This particular game represented his performance when facing the Trail Blazers after beginning the season with the Lakers.

Ayton's season averages differed from his performance against Portland. Throughout the 2025-26 season, which included his tenure with both the Los Angeles Lakers and the Portland Trail Blazers following a mid-season trade, Deandre Ayton's overall averages provided a contrasting view [[^]](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aytonde01/gamelog/2026). For the entire season, his offensive rebounding percentage stood at **7.9%**, and his usage rate was **15.6%** [[^]](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/a/aytonde01/splits/2026). When comparing these figures, Ayton's **0.0%** offensive rebounding percentage in the game against the Trail Blazers was significantly below his season average of **7.9%** [[^]](https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202510270LAL.html). Similarly, his **14.6%** usage rate in that game was slightly lower than his season average of **15.6%** [[^]](https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202510270LAL.html).

## How Did Betting Trends Affect Suns-Blazers Play-In Point Spread?

Opening Point Spread | Phoenix Suns -10.5 [[^]](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/04/12/opening-odds-for-suns-vs-trail-blazers-2026-nba-play-in-tournament-game/) |
Public Bets on Blazers | 58% of spread bets [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba-game/phoenix-suns-portland-trail-blazers/266078) |
Sharp Money on Suns | 82% of total spread money [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba-game/phoenix-suns-portland-trail-blazers/266078) |

**The point spread for the Play-In Tournament game remained notably stable**

The point spread for the Play-In Tournament game remained notably stable. For the April 14, 2026, matchup between the Portland Trail Blazers and the Phoenix Suns, the Phoenix Suns opened as 10.5-point favorites [[^]](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/04/12/opening-odds-for-suns-vs-trail-blazers-2026-nba-play-in-tournament-game/). Leading up to and including game day, multiple major sportsbooks consistently listed the Suns as -10.5 favorites against the spread [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/blazers-suns-odds-prediction-time-2026-nba-play-in-tournament-picks-april-14/). This consistency from the opening line to tip-off indicated no discernible movement or velocity in the final hours, with the line holding steady at Suns -10.5.

Public and sharp betting patterns diverged significantly for this game. Despite the stable betting line, data from Action Network revealed a notable split between individual wagers and total money wagered on April 14, 2026. "Spread Bets" indicated a public preference for the underdog, with **58%** placed on the Portland Trail Blazers (+10.5) [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba-game/phoenix-suns-portland-trail-blazers/266078). Conversely, "Spread Money" percentages showed a strong lean towards the Suns, with **82%** of the total money wagered on Phoenix (-10.5), suggesting heavy backing from larger, potentially professional wagers [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba-game/phoenix-suns-portland-trail-blazers/266078). This disparity indicates that professional bettors largely favored the Suns, even as the public gravitated towards Portland, yet bookmakers maintained the original point spread [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba-game/phoenix-suns-portland-trail-blazers/266078).

## How Did Suns' and Blazers' Bench Units Perform in 2025-26?

Suns Bench Unit Net Rating | +5.8 (West Play-In [[^]](https://www.cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/24/lineups), [[^]](https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/25/lineups)) |
Blazers Bench Unit Net Rating | +2.1 (West Play-In [[^]](https://www.cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/24/lineups), [[^]](https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/25/lineups)) |
Suns Bench Opponent Turnover % | 14.5% ([[^]](https://www.cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/24/lineups), [[^]](http://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/24?season=2025)) |

**Phoenix's primary bench unit posted a higher net rating**

Phoenix's primary bench unit posted a higher net rating. Over the final 20 games of the 2025-26 NBA regular season, the Phoenix Suns' primary five-man bench unit, defined as their most-played lineup consisting entirely of non-starters, achieved a net rating of +5.8. This performance surpassed the Portland Trail Blazers' corresponding bench unit, which recorded a net rating of +2.1 during the season's closing stretch leading up to the West Play-In [[^]](https://www.cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/24/lineups), [[^]](https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/25/lineups).

The Suns' bench unit exhibited a **14.5%** opponent turnover percentage. Specifically, this Phoenix Suns' primary bench unit's opponent turnover percentage was **14.5%** during the same period. This metric represents the percentage of opponents' offensive possessions that resulted in a turnover when this specific Suns lineup was on the court [[^]](https://www.cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/24/lineups), [[^]](http://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/24?season=2025). Lineup statistics for both teams, including net rating and opponent turnover percentage for the 2025-26 season, are available for analysis on specialized basketball statistics platforms [[^]](https://www.cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/24/lineups), [[^]](https://cleaningtheglass.com/stats/team/25/lineups), [[^]](https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/PHO/2026/gamelog-advanced/).

## What is the Phoenix Suns' 2025-26 home clutch offensive rating?

Suns Overall Clutch Offensive Rating | 112.5 (2025-26 Season) [[^]](https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/clutch-advanced) |
Blazers Overall Clutch Defensive Rating | 115.8 (2025-26 Season) [[^]](https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/clutch-advanced) |
Home/Away Clutch Data Availability | Not available for specific breakdown [[^]](https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/clutch-advanced) |

**The Phoenix Suns' offensive rating in clutch situations reached 112.5 for the 2025-26 season**

The Phoenix Suns' offensive rating in clutch situations reached 112.5 for the 2025-26 season. This metric signifies points scored per 100 possessions during critical game moments, defined as the final five minutes when the score is within five points [[^]](https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/clutch-advanced). While the request specifically asked for their performance at home, currently available detailed clutch statistics do not differentiate between home and away games for this advanced metric [[^]](https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/clutch-advanced).

Conversely, the Portland Trail Blazers' defensive rating in the same clutch scenarios for the 2025-26 season was 115.8. This figure indicates that the Trail Blazers allowed 115.8 points per 100 possessions under these specific clutch conditions [[^]](https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/clutch-advanced). Similar to the data for the Suns, web research does not provide a specific breakdown of this defensive rating for games played on the road versus at home [[^]](https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/clutch-advanced).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** April 29, 2026
- **Closes:** April 29, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXNBAGAME-26APR12MEMHOU-MEM: NO (Apr 13, 2026)
- KXNBAGAME-26APR12MEMHOU-HOU: YES (Apr 13, 2026)
- KXNBAGAME-26APR12PHXOKC-PHX: YES (Apr 13, 2026)
- KXNBAGAME-26APR12PHXOKC-OKC: NO (Apr 13, 2026)
- KXNBAGAME-26APR12NOPMIN-NOP: NO (Apr 13, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.