# Cleveland at Detroit: Rebounds

CLE at DET (May 13)

Updated: May 13, 2026

Category: Sports

Tags: Basketball

HTML: /markets/sports/basketball/cleveland-at-detroit-rebounds/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** overwhelmingly agree that Cade Cunningham will have 2+ rebounds, with only minor residual uncertainty.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Official reports show strong rebounding from Mobley and Duren on May 13.** - Jalen Duren's May 13 rebounding appears aligned with his commitment to improve.
- Jarrett Allen (CLE) is healthy and expected to play in Game 5.
- The NBA East Semifinals Game 5 on May 13, 2026, is a key catalyst.
- Comprehensive team-level rebounding trend analysis remains unavailable.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** Octagon's **91.3%** **model** sees **3.3%** upside on 88c, implying 1.1x payout from strong May 13 individual rebounding.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Jalen Duren: 6+ | 88.0% | 91.3% | Jalen Duren is reported to have 9.8 rebounds, exceeding 6 in a strong performance. |
| Tobias Harris: 10+ | 19.0% | 41.8% | Rebounding performance is a key factor for players in basketball games. |
| Jalen Duren: 12+ | 32.0% | 39.5% | Jalen Duren is reported to have 9.8 rebounds and committed to improving his performance. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Jalen Duren: 6+ | 88.0% | 91.3% |
| Tobias Harris: 10+ | 19.0% | 41.8% |
| Jalen Duren: 12+ | 32.0% | 39.5% |
| Jarrett Allen: 8+ | 50.0% | 63.2% |
| Jalen Duren: 10+ | 51.0% | 59.4% |
| Evan Mobley: 8+ | 55.0% | 63.2% |
| Tobias Harris: 7+ | 57.0% | 80.2% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 6+ | 38.0% | 85.9% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 5+ | 55.0% | 91.3% |
| Jarrett Allen: 4+ | 93.0% | 97.2% |
| James Harden: 5+ | 53.0% | 91.3% |
| Tobias Harris: 6+ | 70.0% | 85.9% |
| Ausar Thompson: 7+ | 56.0% | 80.2% |
| Cade Cunningham: 6+ | 48.0% | 85.9% |
| Evan Mobley: 4+ | 96.0% | 97.2% |
| Jarrett Allen: 6+ | 74.0% | 85.9% |
| Ausar Thompson: 8+ | 40.0% | 63.2% |
| Ausar Thompson: 10+ | 23.0% | 41.8% |
| Jarrett Allen: 10+ | 28.0% | 41.8% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 8+ | 16.0% | 63.2% |
| Evan Mobley: 10+ | 34.0% | 41.8% |
| Tobias Harris: 8+ | 40.0% | 63.2% |
| Jalen Duren: 8+ | 74.0% | 80.2% |
| Evan Mobley: 6+ | 81.0% | 85.9% |
| James Harden: 8+ | 14.0% | 63.2% |
| James Harden: 4+ | 69.0% | 97.2% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 4+ | 70.0% | 97.2% |
| Ausar Thompson: 6+ | 69.0% | 85.9% |
| Cade Cunningham: 10+ | 9.0% | 41.8% |
| Cade Cunningham: 4+ | 78.0% | 97.2% |
| James Harden: 2+ | 95.0% | 97.2% |
| Cade Cunningham: 8+ | 21.0% | 63.2% |
| Jalen Duren: 14+ | 16.0% | 20.8% |
| Evan Mobley: 12+ | 14.0% | 20.8% |
| Jarrett Allen: 12+ | 14.0% | 20.8% |
| Ausar Thompson: 12+ | 10.0% | 20.8% |
| Tobias Harris: 12+ | 8.0% | 20.8% |
| Cade Cunningham: 2+ | 92.0% | 97.2% |
| Donovan Mitchell: 2+ | 96.0% | 97.2% |
| James Harden: 6+ | 0.0% | 85.9% |

- Expiration: May 27, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market experienced a dramatic and rapid upward trend, moving from a starting price of 1.0% to a current price of 88.0%. The most significant price movement was an 86-point spike on May 12, where the probability jumped from 1.0% to 87.0%. This surge directly followed news reports of Detroit's Jalen Duren publicly stating his commitment to improve his performance after a disappointing 5-rebound game on May 11. The market appears to have interpreted his comments as a strong indicator of a better rebounding performance in the upcoming game, causing a near-total reversal in sentiment.

Trading volume was initially negligible but exploded on May 13, with over 8,000 contracts traded as the price settled around the 88.0% level. This high volume suggests strong market conviction and participation leading into the event's resolution. The price action established a new support level around 87.0% following the initial spike, indicating that traders saw this as the new baseline probability. Overall, the chart indicates that market sentiment shifted decisively from perceiving the outcome as highly unlikely to highly probable based on a single key news event regarding a player's public self-assessment and commitment.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 May 12, 2026: 86.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 87.0%

**Outcome:** Jalen Duren: 6+

**What happened:** On May 12, 2026, traditional news outlets reported Jalen Duren's public self-assessment where he declared he "just gotta be better" and had "no excuses" after his underwhelming 5-rebound performance in the May 11 game against Cleveland [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/nba/gametracker/boxscore/NBA_20260511_DET@CLE/)[[^]](https://clutchpoints.com/nba/detroit-pistons/pistons-news-jalen-duren-self-assessment-game-4-loss-cavs)[[^]](https://www.mlive.com/pistons/2026/05/jalen-duren-has-no-excuses-for-playoff-form-heres-why-the-pistons-are-sticking-with-him.html). This public commitment to improve, following critical coverage that highlighted his playoff struggles and a narrative suggesting he had only 2 rebounds in Game 4 [[^]](https://basketnews.com/news-247220-one-brutal-stat-sums-up-jalen-durens-playoff-nightmare.html)[[^]](https://clutchpoints.com/nba/detroit-pistons/pistons-news-jalen-duren-self-assessment-game-4-loss-cavs), likely fueled a "bounce-back" expectation among market participants for his next game. The perceived motivation to respond to his poor outing and critical reception drove the 86.0 percentage point spike in the "Jalen Duren: 6+ Rebounds" market. Based on the provided sources, social media activity appears to be mostly noise or irrelevant as a primary driver; the key information originated and was disseminated via traditional news reporting.

## Contract Snapshot

For this Kalshi prediction market, a "Yes" resolution occurs if Jarrett Allen records 8 or more rebounds in the Cleveland at Detroit professional basketball game originally scheduled for May 13, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to "No". The market opened on May 11, 2026, and will close after the outcome or by May 27, 2026, at 1:00 PM EDT, with payouts projected 5 minutes after closing. Special conditions include settlement at the last fair market price before game start if Jarrett Allen is active but never plays, while actual recorded rebounds determine the outcome if he enters the game, with verification by the NBA.

## Market Discussion

Prediction markets are actively trading player rebound outcomes for the Cleveland-Detroit matchup, with contracts priced to reflect implied probabilities for games scheduled for May 7, 2026, and May 13, 2026 [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnbareb/pro-basketball-player-rebounds/kxnbareb-26may13cledet). Rebounding is highlighted as a crucial factor in this matchup, with the Pistons reported at 40.5 rebounds per game compared to the Cavaliers' 35.7, generating significant trader discussion on associated market pages [[^]](https://polymarket.com/sports/nba/nba-cle-det-2026-05-13).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Donovan Mitchell: 2+ | 91% | 96% | 96% | $2 | $2 |
| Donovan Mitchell: 4+ | 68% | 70% | 70% | $135.48 | $135.48 |
| Donovan Mitchell: 5+ | 55% | 56% | 55% | $987.73 | $987.73 |
| Donovan Mitchell: 6+ | 37% | 38% | 38% | $1,070 | $1,070 |
| Donovan Mitchell: 8+ | 15% | 16% | 16% | $277 | $277 |
| Evan Mobley: 10+ | 32% | 34% | 34% | $236.72 | $236.72 |
| Evan Mobley: 12+ | 13% | 14% | 14% | $52.89 | $52.89 |
| Evan Mobley: 4+ | 94% | 96% | 96% | $381.64 | $245.28 |
| Evan Mobley: 6+ | 80% | 81% | 81% | $191.86 | $191.86 |
| Evan Mobley: 8+ | 54% | 55% | 55% | $1,616.05 | $1,616.05 |
| Jarrett Allen: 10+ | 24% | 28% | 28% | $315 | $270 |
| Jarrett Allen: 12+ | 10% | 13% | 14% | $34.06 | $34.06 |
| Jarrett Allen: 4+ | 92% | 93% | 93% | $778.3 | $778.3 |
| Jarrett Allen: 6+ | 72% | 74% | 74% | $369.37 | $318.37 |
| Jarrett Allen: 8+ | 49% | 50% | 50% | $1,998.85 | $1,668.4 |
| James Harden: 2+ | 89% | 95% | 95% | $62.65 | $62.65 |
| James Harden: 4+ | 67% | 69% | 69% | $158.67 | $158.67 |
| James Harden: 5+ | 51% | 53% | 53% | $683.25 | $683.25 |
| James Harden: 6+ | 35% | 36% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| James Harden: 8+ | 14% | 15% | 14% | $161.71 | $161.71 |
| Ausar Thompson: 10+ | 21% | 22% | 23% | $316 | $313 |
| Ausar Thompson: 12+ | 9% | 10% | 10% | $7 | $7 |
| Ausar Thompson: 6+ | 66% | 69% | 69% | $103.45 | $100.98 |
| Ausar Thompson: 7+ | 53% | 54% | 56% | $662.37 | $662.37 |
| Ausar Thompson: 8+ | 39% | 41% | 40% | $322.33 | $288.33 |
| Cade Cunningham: 10+ | 9% | 10% | 9% | $101 | $101 |
| Cade Cunningham: 2+ | 92% | 98% | 92% | $4 | $4 |
| Cade Cunningham: 4+ | 77% | 78% | 78% | $71.25 | $71.25 |
| Cade Cunningham: 6+ | 46% | 48% | 48% | $524.14 | $522.06 |
| Cade Cunningham: 8+ | 20% | 21% | 21% | $55.56 | $55.56 |
| Jalen Duren: 10+ | 51% | 52% | 51% | $1,870.84 | $1,859.87 |
| Jalen Duren: 12+ | 31% | 32% | 32% | $2,387.1 | $2,341.1 |
| Jalen Duren: 14+ | 13% | 16% | 16% | $55 | $55 |
| Jalen Duren: 6+ | 88% | 89% | 88% | $8,215.55 | $8,109 |
| Jalen Duren: 8+ | 72% | 74% | 74% | $202.59 | $202.59 |
| Tobias Harris: 10+ | 18% | 19% | 19% | $2,547.32 | $2,547.32 |
| Tobias Harris: 12+ | 7% | 9% | 8% | $6 | $6 |
| Tobias Harris: 6+ | 68% | 70% | 70% | $682.29 | $682.29 |
| Tobias Harris: 7+ | 54% | 56% | 57% | $1,149.53 | $1,149.53 |
| Tobias Harris: 8+ | 40% | 41% | 40% | $211.67 | $188.25 |

## What is the official injury status for key frontcourt players like Jarrett Allen (CLE) and Jalen Duren (DET) ahead of Game 5 on May 13?

Jarrett Allen Status | Healthy and expected to play for Game 5 on May 13 [[^]](https://www.nbcsports.com/betting/nba/news/pistons-vs-cavaliers-game-5-round-2-nba-playoffs-predictions-odds-recent-stats-trends-best-bets-on-may-13)[[^]](https://www.si.com/nba/cavaliers/onsi/cleveland-cavaliers-might-catch-a-break-on-injury-report-for-game-5-01krgtqemnzz)[[^]](https://foxsports1360.iheart.com/content/2026-05-13-cavaliers-vs-pistons-eastern-semifinals-game-5-injury-report-may-13/)[[^]](https://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articles/cleveland_cavaliers_vs_detroit_pistons_game_5_preview_breakdown/s1_17132_43838885)[[^]](https://collegefootballnetwork.com/nba/cavaliers-vs-pistons-starting-lineups-game-5/)[[^]](https://www.essentiallysports.com/nba-active-basketball-news-nba-playoffs-detroit-pistons-vs-cleveland-cavaliers-injury-report-where-to-watch-odds-more-for-game-five-eastern-conference-semi-finals/) |
Jalen Duren Status | No information available regarding official injury status [[^]](https://www.nbcsports.com/betting/nba/news/pistons-vs-cavaliers-game-5-round-2-nba-playoffs-predictions-odds-recent-stats-trends-best-bets-on-may-13). |
Other Questionable Players (Game 5) | Kevin Huerter, Caris LeVert, and Duncan Robinson are questionable [[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/clevelandcavs/comments/1tc1c9s/injury_report_vs_pistons_game_5/)[[^]](https://www.nbcsports.com/betting/nba/news/pistons-vs-cavaliers-game-5-round-2-nba-playoffs-predictions-odds-recent-stats-trends-best-bets-on-may-13)[[^]](https://www.si.com/nba/cavaliers/onsi/cleveland-cavaliers-might-catch-a-break-on-injury-report-for-game-5-01krgtqemnzz)[[^]](https://foxsports1360.iheart.com/content/2026-05-13-cavaliers-vs-pistons-eastern-semifinals-game-5-injury-report-may-13/)[[^]](https://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articles/cleveland_cavaliers_vs_detroit_pistons_game_5_preview_breakdown/s1_17132_43838885)[[^]](https://collegefootballnetwork.com/nba/cavaliers-vs-pistons-starting-lineups-game-5/)[[^]](https://www.essentiallysports.com/nba-active-basketball-news-nba-playoffs-detroit-pistons-vs-cleveland-cavaliers-injury-report-where-to-watch-odds-more-for-game-five-eastern-conference-semi-finals/)[[^]](https://www.fubo.tv/news/nba/cleveland-cavaliers-at-detroit-pistons-where-to-watch-stream-info-tv-channel-and-live-updates-may-13-2026/) |

**Jarrett Allen is healthy and expected to play in Game 5**

Jarrett Allen is healthy and expected to play in Game 5. The Cleveland Cavaliers' center is not listed on the team's official injury report, confirming his full health and anticipated participation in Game 5 on May 13 [[^]](https://www.nbcsports.com/betting/nba/news/pistons-vs-cavaliers-game-5-round-2-nba-playoffs-predictions-odds-recent-stats-trends-best-bets-on-may-13)[[^]](https://www.si.com/nba/cavaliers/onsi/cleveland-cavaliers-might-catch-a-break-on-injury-report-for-game-5-01krgtqemnzz)[[^]](https://foxsports1360.iheart.com/content/2026-05-13-cavaliers-vs-pistons-eastern-semifinals-game-5-injury-report-may-13/)[[^]](https://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articles/cleveland_cavaliers_vs_detroit_pistons_game_5_preview_breakdown/s1_17132_43838885)[[^]](https://collegefootballnetwork.com/nba/cavaliers-vs-pistons-starting-lineups-game-5/)[[^]](https://www.essentiallysports.com/nba-active-basketball-news-nba-playoffs-detroit-pistons-vs-cleveland-cavaliers-injury-report-where-to-watch-odds-more-for-game-five-eastern-conference-semi-finals/).

Jalen Duren's official injury status is not available. The provided research does not contain information regarding the Detroit Pistons player's status for the upcoming game. However, other players, including Kevin Huerter, Caris LeVert, and Duncan Robinson, are listed as questionable with various ailments for Game 5 on May 13 [[^]](https://www.reddit.com/r/clevelandcavs/comments/1tc1c9s/injury_report_vs_pistons_game_5/)[[^]](https://www.nbcsports.com/betting/nba/news/pistons-vs-cavaliers-game-5-round-2-nba-playoffs-predictions-odds-recent-stats-trends-best-bets-on-may-13)[[^]](https://www.si.com/nba/cavaliers/onsi/cleveland-cavaliers-might-catch-a-break-on-injury-report-for-game-5-01krgtqemnzz)[[^]](https://foxsports1360.iheart.com/content/2026-05-13-cavaliers-vs-pistons-eastern-semifinals-game-5-injury-report-may-13/)[[^]](https://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articles/cleveland_cavaliers_vs_detroit_pistons_game_5_preview_breakdown/s1_17132_43838885)[[^]](https://collegefootballnetwork.com/nba/cavaliers-vs-pistons-starting-lineups-game-5/)[[^]](https://www.essentiallysports.com/nba-active-basketball-news-nba-playoffs-detroit-pistons-vs-cleveland-cavaliers-injury-report-where-to-watch-odds-more-for-game-five-eastern-conference-semi-finals/)[[^]](https://www.fubo.tv/news/nba/cleveland-cavaliers-at-detroit-pistons-where-to-watch-stream-info-tv-channel-and-live-updates-may-13-2026/).

## How has Ausar Thompson's rebounding performance in the first four games of the 2026 series compared against the betting market's prop lines for those games?

Ausar Thompson's Rebounds Prop Line (May 5, 2026) | 7.5 [[^]](https://evanalytics.com/nba/writenow/player/prop/ausar-thompson-rebounds-player-prop-20260505) |
Ausar Thompson's Actual Rebounds (May 5, 2026) | 8 (vs CLE) [[^]](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/thompau01/gamelog-playoffs/) |
Ausar Thompson's Rebounds Prop Line (May 7, 2026) | 6.5 [[^]](https://www.thesportsontap.com/blogs/news/ausar-thompson-props-may-7-2026) |

**Comprehensive comparison of Ausar Thompson's rebounding against prop lines is limited**

Comprehensive comparison of Ausar Thompson's rebounding against prop lines is limited. There is insufficient information to fully compare Ausar Thompson's rebounding performance across all four games of the 2026 series against the betting **market**'s prop lines. This limitation is due to a lack of matching prop-line entries and complete rebound totals for the entire four-game period, or an inability to link them to specific prop lines [[^]](https://www.thesportsontap.com/blogs/news/ausar-thompson-props-may-7-2026)[[^]](https://evanalytics.com/nba/writenow/player/prop/ausar-thompson-rebounds-player-prop-20260505)[[^]](https://www.si.com/betting/cavaliers-vs-pistons-prediction-odds-and-best-prop-bets-for-nba-playoffs-game-5)[[^]](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/thompau01/gamelog-playoffs/).

One game allowed for a direct comparison of prop line to performance. A comparison was possible for a single specific game: on May 5, 2026, Ausar Thompson's rebounds prop line was set at 7.5 [[^]](https://evanalytics.com/nba/writenow/player/prop/ausar-thompson-rebounds-player-prop-20260505). In the Detroit-Cleveland matchup on that date, he recorded 8 rebounds [[^]](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/thompau01/gamelog-playoffs/).

Data limitations prevent a full analysis across the four-game window. While another prop line for May 7, 2026, was identified at 6.5 rebounds [[^]](https://www.thesportsontap.com/blogs/news/ausar-thompson-props-may-7-2026), corresponding actual rebound data specifically tied to this line for comparison was not available. Additionally, matching prop-line entries for all four games in the designated window were not found [[^]](https://www.thesportsontap.com/blogs/news/ausar-thompson-props-may-7-2026)[[^]](https://evanalytics.com/nba/writenow/player/prop/ausar-thompson-rebounds-player-prop-20260505)[[^]](https://www.si.com/betting/cavaliers-vs-pistons-prediction-odds-and-best-prop-bets-for-nba-playoffs-game-5), and the CBS Sports game tracker for the May 13, 2026, Cleveland at Detroit game did not include Ausar Thompson's rebounds prop **market** line [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/nba/gametracker/playbyplay/NBA_20260513_CLE@DET/).

## How have the team-level rebounding battles between Cleveland and Detroit trended over the first four games of their 2026 playoff series?

Evan Mobley Game 4 rebounds | 8 rebounds [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/nba/nba-playoffs-round-2-game-4-detroit-pistons-vs-cleveland-cavaliers-may-11-2026-game-boxscore-106451) |
Donovan Mitchell Game 4 rebounds | 5 rebounds [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/nba/nba-playoffs-round-2-game-4-detroit-pistons-vs-cleveland-cavaliers-may-11-2026-game-boxscore-106451) |
Tobias Harris Game 4 rebounds | 8 rebounds [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/nba/nba-playoffs-round-2-game-4-detroit-pistons-vs-cleveland-cavaliers-may-11-2026-game-boxscore-106451) |

**Comprehensive analysis of team-level rebounding trends is currently unavailable**

Comprehensive analysis of team-level rebounding trends is currently unavailable. The available research does not provide sufficient information to fully describe the team-level rebounding battles between Cleveland and Detroit or their trend across the first four games of their 2026 playoff series. This limitation stems from the absence of comprehensive team-level rebounding totals for Games 1, 2, and 3, and incomplete team totals for Game 4.

Individual rebounding statistics are available for players in Game 4. In that game, Evan Mobley recorded 8 rebounds and Donovan Mitchell secured 5 rebounds for Cleveland. For Detroit, Tobias Harris registered 8 rebounds and Caris LeVert contributed 4 rebounds [[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/nba/nba-playoffs-round-2-game-4-detroit-pistons-vs-cleveland-cavaliers-may-11-2026-game-boxscore-106451). However, these individual player contributions do not constitute complete team-level rebounding totals, which are necessary for a thorough analysis of the team-level trends throughout the initial four games of the series.

## Where can traders find player-specific rebounding data for the Cavaliers-Pistons 2026 series, including rebound chances and box-out statistics?

Player Rebounding Data Source | NBA.com/stats/players/rebounding [[^]](https://www.nba.com/stats/players/rebounding?CF=REB_CHANCES*GE*50&PerMode=Totals&dir=D&sort=REB_CHANCE_PCT) |
Box-Out Stats Availability | Available on NBA.com/stats/players/box-outs since 2018 [[^]](https://api-hub-qa.nba.com/stats/players/box-outs)[[^]](https://www.nba.com/stats/players/box-outs?PORound=2) |
Prediction Market Resolution | Official NBA-recorded player rebounds from box scores for May 13, 2026 game [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/mens-pro-basketball/events/cleveland-at-detroit-rebounds-may-13-2026/) |

**Player-specific rebounding data is available through official NBA statistics**

Player-specific rebounding data is available through official NBA statistics. Traders can access player-specific rebounding data for the Cavaliers-Pistons 2026 series, identified as an Eastern Conference Semifinals series, through NBA.com/stats [[^]](https://www.nba.com/stats/players/rebounding?CF=REB_CHANCES*GE*50&PerMode=Totals&dir=D&sort=REB_CHANCE_PCT)[[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/nba/nba-playoffs-round-2-game-3-detroit-pistons-vs-cleveland-cavaliers-may-09-2026-game-boxscore-106450?tab=boxscore). The NBA.com/stats/players/rebounding section offers filters such as REB_CHANCES and REB_CHANCE_PCT to find player-specific data from playoff games [[^]](https://www.nba.com/stats/players/rebounding?CF=REB_CHANCES*GE*50&PerMode=Totals&dir=D&sort=REB_CHANCE_PCT). Users should visit NBA.com/stats/help/videostatus/ to verify the availability of player tracking data for specific games [[^]](https://www.nba.com/stats/players/rebounding?CF=REB_CHANCES*GE*50&PerMode=Totals&dir=D&sort=REB_CHANCE_PCT).

Detailed box-out statistics are also available for individual players. For box-out related statistics, NBA.com/stats/players/box-outs provides individual player box-out counts [[^]](https://api-hub-qa.nba.com/stats/players/box-outs)[[^]](https://www.nba.com/stats/players/box-outs?PORound=2). These box-out statistics have been officially tracked by the NBA since 2018 [[^]](https://api-hub-qa.nba.com/stats/players/box-outs)[[^]](https://www.nba.com/stats/players/box-outs?PORound=2).

Prediction **market** outcomes will be determined by official NBA box scores. The prediction **market** for this event will resolve based on the official NBA-recorded player rebounds from the box scores for the Cleveland at Detroit game scheduled for May 13, 2026 [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/mens-pro-basketball/events/cleveland-at-detroit-rebounds-may-13-2026/).

## How do the Cavaliers' Evan Mobley and the Pistons' Jalen Duren match up head-to-head on advanced rebounding metrics in the 2026 playoffs?

Evan Mobley 2026 Playoff Rebounds Per Game | 7.8 RPG [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/evan-mobley-stats-playoffs-2026) |
Jalen Duren 2026 Playoff Rebounds Per Game | 8.4 RPG [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/jalen-duren-stats-in-the-2026-playoffs) |
Jalen Duren Market Rebounds Threshold | 10+ rebounds (45¢) [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/mens-pro-basketball/events/cleveland-at-detroit-rebounds-may-13-2026/) |

**Specific 2026 playoff advanced rebounding metrics for Mobley and Duren are unavailable**

Specific 2026 playoff advanced rebounding metrics for Mobley and Duren are unavailable. A direct head-to-head comparison of advanced rebounding-rate statistics, such as offensive rebounding percentage (ORB%) or defensive rebounding percentage (DRB%), for Evan Mobley and Jalen Duren in the 2026 playoffs cannot be determined from the provided research. The specific 2026 playoff values for these advanced metrics for either player were not included in the available information, despite definitions for such metrics being accessible. Neither Mobley's detailed advanced statistics nor Duren's 2025-26 playoff line items provided these specific advanced rebounding-rate metrics [[^]](https://fantasyteamadvice.com/nba/players/99/jalen-duren/postseason/2025)[[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/nba/evan-mobley-player-stats?category=advanced&seasonType=post)[[^]](https://www.nba.com/stats/player/1630596/advanced).

Jalen Duren held a slight rebounding edge over Evan Mobley in general performance. In the 2026 playoffs, Jalen Duren averaged 8.4 rebounds per game, which was slightly higher than Evan Mobley's average of 7.8 rebounds per game [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/evan-mobley-stats-playoffs-2026)[[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/jalen-duren-stats-in-the-2026-playoffs). This indicates Duren had a 0.6 rebounds per game advantage over Mobley. Prediction **market** prices from Robinhood on May 13, 2026, also reflected this, pricing Evan Mobley at 8+ rebounds for 52¢ and Jalen Duren at 10+ rebounds for 45¢, suggesting a higher implied rebounds threshold for Duren [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/mens-pro-basketball/events/cleveland-at-detroit-rebounds-may-13-2026/).

## What Could Change the Odds

**The relevant NBA event is the East Semifinals Game 5 on May 13, 2026, at 8:00pm ET [[^]](https://www.nba.com/playoffs/2026/east-semifinal-1)[[^]](https://www.nba.com/news/2026-nba-playoffs-series-preview-pistons-cavaliers).** For the May 13, 2026 game, moneyline-style prediction-**market** pricing shows Detroit as the favorite with implied **probability** around **62%** (Detroit 62¢ on Kalshi; 61¢ on Polymarket) versus Cleveland around 38–39¢ [[^]](https://www.predictionhunt.com/odds/nba/cleveland-cavaliers-vs-detroit-pistons-2026-05-13/16462)[[^]](https://polymarket.com/sports/nba/nba-cle-det-2026-05-13).

**A specific basketball catalyst called out by NBA.com for Game 5 is that “Big men could determine Pistons-Cavs Game 5,” naming Evan Mobley and Jalen Duren as storylines [[^]](https://www.nba.com/news/2026-nba-playoffs-series-preview-pistons-cavaliers).** Prediction markets for rebounds also exist as per-player threshold contracts, such as for a May 7, 2026 game where Harden 5+ Rebounds was listed at 58¢, Mobley 9+ at 51¢, and Jalen Duren 12+ at 49¢ [[^]](https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/mens-pro-basketball/events/cleveland-at-detroit-rebounds-may-07-2026/). There is contemporaneous dispute and regulatory attention around prediction markets tied to injuries or underperformance, with player unions asking regulators to block “negative outcome” prediction contracts [[^]](https://www.talkbasket.net/218089-nba-players-join-push-against-negative-outcome-prediction-markets).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** May 27, 2026
- **Closes:** May 27, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- The relevant NBA event is the East Semifinals Game 5 on May 13, 2026, at 8:00pm ET [^] [^] .
- For the May 13, 2026 game, moneyline-style prediction-**market** pricing shows Detroit as the favorite with implied **probability** around **62%** (Detroit 62¢ on Kalshi; 61¢ on Polymarket) versus Cleveland around 38–39¢ [^] [^] .
- A specific basketball catalyst called out by NBA.com for Game 5 is that “Big men could determine Pistons-Cavs Game 5,” naming Evan Mobley and Jalen Duren as storylines [^] .
- Prediction markets for rebounds also exist as per-player threshold contracts, such as for a May 7, 2026 game where Harden 5+ Rebounds was listed at 58¢, Mobley 9+ at 51¢, and Jalen Duren 12+ at 49¢ [^] .

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 9 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXNBAREB-26MAY12MINSAS-SASVWEMBANYAMA1-16: YES (May 13, 2026)
- KXNBAREB-26MAY12MINSAS-SASVWEMBANYAMA1-14: YES (May 13, 2026)
- KXNBAREB-26MAY12MINSAS-SASVWEMBANYAMA1-13: YES (May 13, 2026)
- KXNBAREB-26MAY12MINSAS-SASVWEMBANYAMA1-12: YES (May 13, 2026)
- KXNBAREB-26MAY12MINSAS-SASVWEMBANYAMA1-10: YES (May 13, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

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