# Texas vs Detroit: Total Runs

TEX vs DET (May 1)

Updated: May 1, 2026

Category: Sports

Tags: Baseball

HTML: /markets/sports/baseball/texas-vs-detroit-total-runs/

## Short Answer

**The model identifies a significant mispricing for 'Over 2.5 runs scored,' assigning a 95.8% probability compared to the market's 0.0%.** This suggests the **market** heavily undervalues an outcome that is highly probable given typical baseball scoring expectations.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - The consensus Over/Under line has remained stable at 8.5 total runs.** - Critical statistical data for a strong directional shift is largely unavailable.
- Specific pitcher-batter career statistics for active players are not available.
- Umpire historical data and future weather forecasts are unavailable for May 1st.
- Detroit's top relievers show higher usage in games prior to May 1st.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Model** estimates **95.8%** **probability** versus 0c **market**, implying a +**95.8%** gap and 0.0x payout.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Over 8.5 runs scored | 47.0% | 45.1% | Market higher by 1.9pp |
| Over 7.5 runs scored | 56.0% | 54.4% | Market higher by 1.6pp |
| Over 9.5 runs scored | 37.0% | 35.0% | Market higher by 2.0pp |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Over 8.5 runs scored | 47.0% | 45.1% |
| Over 7.5 runs scored | 56.0% | 54.4% |
| Over 9.5 runs scored | 37.0% | 35.0% |
| Over 5.5 runs scored | 75.0% | 74.1% |
| Over 11.5 runs scored | 23.0% | 21.3% |
| Over 6.5 runs scored | 67.0% | 65.8% |
| Over 12.5 runs scored | 17.0% | 15.6% |
| Over 3.5 runs scored | 92.0% | 91.8% |
| Over 4.5 runs scored | 87.0% | 86.6% |
| Over 10.5 runs scored | 30.0% | 28.1% |
| Over 2.5 runs scored | 0.0% | 95.8% |

- Expiration: May 4, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market shows a strong and decisive upward trend. It began with the probability of a "YES" outcome at 60.0% but experienced a significant spike on May 1st, the day the event resolves. The price leaped from 60.0% to 94.0% and then settled at 95.0%, indicating a rapid and substantial shift in expectations toward the "YES" outcome being realized. Given the lack of specific contextual news, the catalyst for this sharp repricing is not explicitly clear. However, the timing suggests the market reacted to information that became available on game day, such as confirmed lineups, starting pitchers, or weather forecasts that would favor a higher run total.

A critical observation is the complete absence of trading volume, with zero contracts traded throughout the market's history. This indicates that the price movements are not the result of buying and selling pressure from market participants. Instead, the price likely reflects adjustments made by an automated market maker or the market's creator based on their internal modeling. The lack of volume means there is no demonstrated market conviction behind the price, and concepts like support or resistance levels are not applicable.

The chart's final price of 95.0% suggests an extremely high perceived probability that the "YES" condition for the total runs will be met. However, it is important to note that this is not a reflection of a broad market consensus formed through active trading. Rather, it represents the strong directional forecast of the entity setting the price, without validation from independent traders.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers collectively score more than 8.5 runs in their professional baseball game originally scheduled for May 1, 2026, at 6:40 PM EDT; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market will close and expire early if the event occurs, with a projected payout one minute after closing, or by May 4, 2026, at 6:40 PM EDT if the event has not occurred. Outcome verification is sourced from MLB.com.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Over 9.5 runs scored | 37% | 38% | 37% | $907.22 | $867 |
| Over 10.5 runs scored | 30% | 31% | 30% | $23 | $23 |
| Over 11.5 runs scored | 23% | 24% | 23% | $217 | $217 |
| Over 12.5 runs scored | 17% | 18% | 17% | $101 | $101 |
| Over 2.5 runs scored | 95% | 98% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Over 3.5 runs scored | 87% | 91% | 92% | $100 | $100 |
| Over 4.5 runs scored | 84% | 86% | 87% | $96 | $96 |
| Over 5.5 runs scored | 73% | 76% | 75% | $326.91 | $326.91 |
| Over 6.5 runs scored | 66% | 67% | 67% | $105 | $102 |
| Over 7.5 runs scored | 55% | 56% | 56% | $1,620.63 | $1,613.63 |
| Over 8.5 runs scored | 47% | 48% | 47% | $2,948.11 | $2,948.11 |

## Are Specific Pitcher-Batter Career Statistics Directly Available?

Jack Leiter General Stats Source | Stats Against All Batters finder [[^]](https://stathead.com/baseball/versus-finder.cgi?player_id1=leiter000jac) |
Jack Leiter Team Records Source | Career win/loss records against teams [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask?q=jack+leiter+career+w%2F+l+versus+all+mlb+teams) |
Kenta Maeda Lineup Data Source | Rangers Current Lineup Vs Kenta Maeda [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/rangers-current-lineup-vs-kenta-maeda) |

**The specific career weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and strikeout rates for the probable starting pitchers against active opposing batters could not be directly found**

The specific career weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and strikeout rates for the probable starting pitchers against active opposing batters could not be directly found. The research aimed to determine these statistics for Jack Leiter (TEX) against active Detroit Tigers batters, and for Kenta Maeda (DET) against active Texas Rangers batters. However, based solely on the provided source titles and URLs, the precise data points for career wOBA and strikeout rates for these pitchers against the active batters on the opposing roster are not explicitly stated.

For Jack Leiter, available data did not explicitly present these statistics. The provided links included a "Stats Against All Batters" finder [[^]](https://stathead.com/baseball/versus-finder.cgi?player_id1=leiter000jac) and career win/loss records against teams [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask?q=jack+leiter+career+w%2F+l+versus+all+mlb+teams). While these resources offer general career information, their titles did not indicate the direct availability of the requested wOBA or strikeout rate statistics specifically against the active opposing roster.

Similarly, sources for Kenta Maeda lacked the precise statistical details. Titles such as "Rangers Current Lineup Vs Kenta Maeda" [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/rangers-current-lineup-vs-kenta-maeda) and "What Is Kent Maeda Career Stats Vs Rangers" [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/what-is-kent-maeda-career-stats-vs-rangers) suggested potential relevant information. However, these titles themselves did not directly provide the specific wOBA or strikeout rate figures required for Maeda against the active Texas Rangers batters.

## What are Rangers' and Tigers' 14-day wRC+ and ISO splits?

Opposing Pitcher Handedness (May 1, 2026) | Not available [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401815163/rangers-tigers) |
Texas Rangers 2026 Season ISO | Available [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/stats/_/name/tex/table/batting/sort/isolatedPower/dir/desc) |
Detroit Tigers 2026 Season wRC+ and ISO | Available [[^]](https://aws.baseball-reference.com/teams/DET/2026-batting.shtml) |

**The requested collective wRC+ and ISO cannot be fully provided**

The requested collective wRC+ and ISO cannot be fully provided. Research findings indicate that the query for the Texas Rangers' and Detroit Tigers' collective wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) and ISO (Isolated Power) over the last 14 days, specifically against the handedness of their opposing starting pitcher, cannot be entirely fulfilled. A key missing detail is the handedness of the starting pitchers for the May 1, 2026 game between the Rangers and Tigers, as this information is not specified in the available sources [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401815163/rangers-tigers). Without knowing the pitcher's handedness, it is impossible to provide statistics tailored to that specific opposition.

Specific 14-day wRC+ and ISO data are unavailable. Furthermore, the provided sources do not contain collective wRC+ and ISO data for either team specifically for the last 14 days, or two weeks, against particular handedness splits. Although a StatMuse query provided the Texas Rangers' collective batting average (BA) against right-handed pitchers over the last two weeks [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/ask/rangers-ba-vs-righties-last-2-weeks), this source did not include the requested wRC+ or ISO. Broader 2026 MLB Regular Season collective ISO for the Texas Rangers is available [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/stats/_/name/tex/table/batting/sort/isolatedPower/dir/desc), and the Detroit Tigers' collective wRC+ and ISO for the entire 2026 season can be found [[^]](https://aws.baseball-reference.com/teams/DET/2026-batting.shtml).

Broader season-long statistics do not meet the criteria. These available statistics for the Rangers [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/stats/_/name/tex/table/batting/sort/isolatedPower/dir/desc) and Tigers [[^]](https://aws.baseball-reference.com/teams/DET/2026-batting.shtml) are season-long figures and do not reflect the specific 14-day window or the crucial pitcher handedness splits requested in the query. The absence of detailed pitcher handedness for the May 1, 2026 game and the lack of specific 14-day wRC+ and ISO splits in the research prevents a direct and complete answer to the query.

## Are Umpire Stats and Weather Forecasts Available for May 1, 2026?

Home Plate Umpire for May 1, 2026 | Not identified in available sources [[^]](https://www2.teamrankings.com/mlb/matchup/rangers-tigers-2026-05-01) |
Umpire Strike Accuracy for May 1, 2026 | Specific data not available for this future game [[^]](https://www.umpscorecards.com/page/info/explainers/accuracy) |
Gametime Wind Forecast at Comerica Park May 1, 2026 | Forecast not available in provided sources [[^]](https://www.covers.com/sport/mlb/weather) |

**Specific umpire historical data for the future game is unavailable**

Specific umpire historical data for the future game is unavailable. The available research does not provide the historical run impact or strike accuracy percentage for the home plate umpire scheduled for the Texas vs. Detroit game on May 1, 2026. The provided sources do not identify the umpire assigned to this future game [[^]](https://www2.teamrankings.com/mlb/matchup/rangers-tigers-2026-05-01). While Umpire Scorecards track general performance and accuracy [[^]](https://www.umpscorecards.com/page/info/explainers/accuracy), specific data for the individual umpire for this particular future date is not present. Umpire statistics found in the research pertained to a different game date, May 9, 2025, and are therefore not applicable to the May 1, 2026, matchup [[^]](https://www.statsharp.com/mlb/matchups/umpire-stats-trends.php?g=20250509DETROIT).

Gametime weather forecasts for May 1, 2026, are not available. A detailed gametime weather forecast, specifying wind speed and direction for May 1, 2026, at Comerica Park, is not present in the provided sources. One source offered a weather report for April 29, 2026, which is a different date than requested [[^]](https://www.covers.com/sport/mlb/weather). Another source provided current weather conditions for Comerica Park, rather than a future forecast [[^]](https://www.fantasyinfocentral.com/mlb/weather/tigers).

## What is the Over/Under for Rangers vs. Tigers on May 1, 2026?

Opening Over/Under Line | 8.5 total runs [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/texas-detroit-odds-may-1-2026-2500836) |
Current Over/Under Line | 8.5 total runs [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/texas-detroit-odds-may-1-2026-2500836) |
Over/Under Line Movement | No movement [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/texas-detroit-odds-may-1-2026-2500836) |

**The consensus Over/Under line for the Texas Rangers vs**

The consensus Over/Under line for the Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers game on May 1, 2026, has remained stable. It opened at 8.5 total runs and has shown no movement since, staying consistently at 8.5 total runs. Major sportsbooks, including DraftKings and FanDuel, list the Over/Under at 8.5 runs for this matchup, a figure corroborated by various other sources [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/texas-detroit-odds-may-1-2026-2500836).

Specific betting percentages for this game were not readily available. Information concerning the precise percentage of total money versus total bets placed on the Over for the Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers game on May 1, 2026, was not present in the provided web research. While general explanations of public betting percentages in sports gambling exist [[^]](https://actionnetwork.com/public-betting), specific data for this particular game was not found in the reviewed sources.

## How Do Tigers and Rangers Bullpens Compare Prior to May 1st?

Detroit Tigers Bullpen SIERA | 3.98 (2026 Season) [[^]](https://insidethepen.com/team/DET-bullpen.html) |
Texas Rangers Bullpen ERA | 3.85 (2026 Season) [[^]](https://insidethepen.com/bullpen-rankings/TEX-bullpen-ranking.html) |
Tigers High-Leverage Pitch Counts (April 28-29) | Foley 28, Miller 30, Chafin 14 [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/gametracker/recap/MLB_20260429_DET@ATL/) |

**Detroit's top relievers show higher usage in games before May 1st**

Detroit's top relievers show higher usage in games before May 1st. The Detroit Tigers' data was available for two of the three games prior to May 1st, specifically April 28th and April 29th, 2026 [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/gametracker/recap/MLB_20260429_DET@ATL/). Their three highest-leverage bullpen pitchers—Jason Foley, Shelby Miller, and Andrew Chafin [[^]](https://lastwordonsports.com/baseball/2026/04/27/detroit-tigers-bullpen-struggles-amid-tough-schedule/)—had notable activity. Jason Foley pitched a total of 28 pitches across 2 appearances, Shelby Miller threw 30 pitches over 2 appearances, and Andrew Chafin made 1 appearance with 14 pitches, all within the specified dates [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/gametracker/recap/MLB_20260429_DET@ATL/). The Detroit Tigers' bullpen maintains a season-to-date SIERA of 3.98 for the 2026 season [[^]](https://insidethepen.com/team/DET-bullpen.html).

Texas's high-leverage bullpen arms had lighter recent workloads. For the Texas Rangers, data was available for only one game prior to May 1st, 2026, which was April 29th [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/gametracker/boxscore/MLB_20260429_NYY@TEX/). Their top-ranked bullpen arms, Aroldis Chapman, Jose Leclerc, and Kirby Yates [[^]](https://insidethepen.com/bullpen-rankings/TEX-bullpen-ranking.html), each made 1 appearance in that single game. Aroldis Chapman threw 13 pitches, Jose Leclerc threw 14 pitches, and Kirby Yates threw 12 pitches [[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/gametracker/boxscore/MLB_20260429_NYY@TEX/). The Texas Rangers' bullpen has a season-to-date ERA of 3.85 [[^]](https://insidethepen.com/bullpen-rankings/TEX-bullpen-ranking.html).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** May 04, 2026
- **Closes:** May 04, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Related Research Reports

- [CB Malaga vs Bilbao Basket](/markets/sports/basketball/cb-malaga-vs-bilbao-basket/)
- [APF Division de Honor Apertura Champion](/markets/sports/soccer/apf-division-de-honor-apertura-champion/)
- [Olimpia vs Luqueno](/markets/sports/soccer/olimpia-vs-luqueno/)
- [Trinidense vs CD Recoleta](/markets/sports/soccer/trinidense-vs-cd-recoleta/)

## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 6 resolved YES, 14 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXMLBTOTAL-26APR291840SFPHI-15: NO (May 01, 2026)
- KXMLBTOTAL-26APR291840SFPHI-14: NO (May 01, 2026)
- KXMLBTOTAL-26APR291840SFPHI-13: NO (May 01, 2026)
- KXMLBTOTAL-26APR291835HOUBAL-19: NO (Apr 30, 2026)
- KXMLBTOTAL-26APR291835HOUBAL-18: NO (Apr 30, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

## Attribution Policy

When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon AI content, attribute it to Octagon AI and link to the Octagon source URL: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/baseball/texas-vs-detroit-total-runs
If a specific page was used, cite that page rather than only the site homepage.