# St. Louis vs Detroit: First 5 Innings Total STL vs DET (Apr 3) Updated: April 3, 2026 Category: Sports Tags: Baseball HTML: /markets/sports/baseball/st-louis-vs-detroit-first-5-innings-total/ ## Short Answer **Both the model and the market expect Over 0.5 runs in the first 5 innings for the St.** Louis vs Detroit game, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Betting market activity indicates high expectation for more runs.** - St. Louis pitcher's FIP suggests a higher likelihood of runs scored. - First 5 Innings (F5) run total line shifted upwards after opening. - Comerica Park's historical nature generally suppresses offensive production. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **90%** for more F5 runs is 3pp above 87c **market**, implying a 1.1x payout. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 23.0% | 27.6% | Betting markets show an upward trend for runs, supported by the St. Louis pitcher's higher FIP. | | Over 3.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 29.0% | 34.3% | Betting markets show an upward trend for runs, supported by the St. Louis pitcher's higher FIP. | | Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 43.0% | 49.4% | Betting markets show an upward trend for runs, supported by the St. Louis pitcher's higher FIP. | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 23.0% | 27.6% | | Over 3.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 29.0% | 34.3% | | Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 43.0% | 49.4% | | Over 5.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 16.0% | 19.4% | | Over 0.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 87.0% | 90.0% | | Over 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0.0% | 53.5% | | Over 6.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 0.0% | 0.7% | - Expiration: April 6, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics This market experienced a dramatic upward trend, moving from a starting price of 1.0% to a final price of 91.0%. The most significant price movement occurred on April 3, the day of the game, with the probability spiking to its high of 91.0%. This indicates a rapid and decisive shift in market expectations over a very short period. The chart's overall trajectory is almost vertical, suggesting a singular event drove the price action rather than a gradual evolution of sentiment. The substantial price spike on April 3 directly corresponds to the resolution event for this market, the "First 5 Innings Total" of the St. Louis vs. Detroit baseball game. As the game was played, the market price adjusted in real-time to reflect the accumulating run total. The sharp increase to 91.0% indicates that the number of runs scored during the first five innings met the conditions for a "YES" outcome, moving the market from uncertainty to near-certainty. The trading volume is exceptionally low, with only 9 contracts traded in total. Notably, this volume occurred after the price had already reached 91.0%, suggesting that trading only took place once the outcome was all but determined. Due to the rapid, one-directional movement and low data point count, no meaningful support or resistance levels were established. The key price points are the market open at 1.0% and the closing price of 91.0%. The chart's final state reflects an overwhelming market consensus that the "YES" proposition was the correct outcome, with the price action serving as a direct reflection of the in-game events as they unfolded. ## Significant Price Movements #### šŸ“ˆ April 03, 2026: 53.0pp spike Price increased from 32.0% to 85.0% **Outcome:** Over 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot For this market, a "Yes" resolution occurs if the St. Louis and Detroit baseball teams collectively score more than 0.5 runs in the first 5 innings of their game originally scheduled for April 3, 2026; otherwise, it resolves to "No." If the game is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game finishes (within two days). The market opened on April 2, 2026, and will close either after the outcome occurs or by April 6, 2026, 10:00 AM EDT, with payouts projected 3 minutes after closing. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Over 0.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 47% | 94% | 87% | $27 | $27 | | Over 1.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 41% | 96% | 0% | $0 | $0 | | Over 2.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 26% | 87% | 43% | $878 | $878 | | Over 3.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 26% | 48% | 29% | $5,568 | $5,097 | | Over 4.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 22% | 45% | 23% | $8,429 | $8,429 | | Over 5.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 16% | 54% | 16% | $590 | $590 | | Over 6.5 runs in the first 5 innings | 12% | 44% | 0% | $0 | $0 | ## What Are Scheduled Pitchers' Key Stats for April 3, 2026? Michael McGreevy 2026 FIP | 4.70 [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-mcgreevy/29869/stats/pitching) | Framber Valdez 2026 FIP | 3.82 [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-mcgreevy/29869/stats/pitching) | Framber Valdez Last 3 Starts BB/9 | 1.58 [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/36581/framber-valdez) | **Michael McGreevy shows a moderate 2026 FIP and walk rate** Michael McGreevy shows a moderate 2026 FIP and walk rate. Michael McGreevy is the scheduled starter for the St. Louis Cardinals in the April 3, 2026 game against the Detroit Tigers [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/gameday/cardinals-vs-tigers/2026/04/03/824299/preview). His 2026 season statistics include a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 4.70 and a walk rate (BB/9) of 2.80 [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-mcgreevy/29869/stats/pitching). Specific FIP or BB/9 figures for McGreevy's last three starts, or against the top projected batters for the Tigers, were not available in the provided research [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-mcgreevy/29869/stats/pitching). Framber Valdez demonstrates better 2026 metrics, improving his walk rate. Framber Valdez is scheduled to pitch for the Detroit Tigers [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/gameday/cardinals-vs-tigers/2026/04/03/824299/preview). For the 2026 season, his FIP is recorded at 3.82, with a walk rate (BB/9) of 2.70 [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-mcgreevy/29869/stats/pitching). Over his most recent three starts, Valdez maintained a walk rate of approximately 1.58 BB/9, delivering 18 strikeouts, 3 walks, and 1 home run across 17.1 innings pitched [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/36581/framber-valdez). Comparable to McGreevy, specific career FIP or BB/9 data for Valdez against the Cardinals' top projected batters was not found in the research [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/gameday/cardinals-vs-tigers/2026/04/03/824299/preview). ## Who Are the Probable Pitchers and Lineups for Cardinals vs. Tigers? Cardinals Probable Pitcher | Miles Mikolas [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/gameday/cardinals-vs-tigers/2026/04/03/824299/preview) | Tigers Probable Pitcher | Framber Valdez [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/gameday/cardinals-vs-tigers/2026/04/03/824299/preview) | Cardinals Top 5 Batters | Brendan Donovan, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, Jordan Walker [[^]](https://lastwordonsports.com/baseball/2026/03/24/breaking-down-cardinals-lineup/) | **The St** The St. Louis Cardinals are scheduled to face the Detroit Tigers on April 3, 2026. The probable starting pitchers for this game are Framber Valdez for the Detroit Tigers and Miles Mikolas for the St. Louis Cardinals [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/gameday/cardinals-vs-tigers/2026/04/03/824299/preview). This matchup will feature two established pitchers opening the series. Expected lineups and pitcher's primary pitches are identified for the game. The likely top five batters for the St. Louis Cardinals include Brendan Donovan, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras, and Jordan Walker [[^]](https://lastwordonsports.com/baseball/2026/03/24/breaking-down-cardinals-lineup/). For the Detroit Tigers, the expected top five batters are Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, Javier BĆ”ez, Mark Canha, and Carson Kelly [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/gameday/cardinals-vs-tigers/2026/04/03/824299/preview). Framber Valdez's primary pitch types, according to available data, typically consist of a sinker and a curveball [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/framber-valdez-664285?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb). Granular wOBA data against specific pitch types is unavailable in the provided sources. Specifically, information regarding the Weighted On-Base Plus Slugging (wOBA) for individual batters (positions 1-5 in each lineup) against the opposing starting pitcher's primary pitch types was not present in the web research results [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/team/138). ## What Home Plate Umpire Data Is Available for Cardinals-Tigers 2026? Cardinals Probable Starting Pitcher | Michael McGreevy [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/stories/game-preview/824299) | Tigers Probable Starting Pitcher | Framber Valdez [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/stories/game-preview/824299) | Home Plate Umpire Identity | Not identified for April 3, 2026 game [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/stories/game-preview/824299) | **Umpire details for the Cardinals-Tigers game remain unavailable** Umpire details for the Cardinals-Tigers game remain unavailable. The specific home plate umpire for the April 3, 2026, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers game has not been identified in the provided sources [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/stories/game-preview/824299). Consequently, data such as the umpire's historical run-per-game average, called strike accuracy, or specific zone profileā€”for example, a tendency to call low strikesā€”cannot be determined. This absence of information precludes a direct comparison between an umpire's zone preferences and the starting pitchers' typical pitch locations. Starting pitchers' heatmaps show distinct preferred strike zone locations. The probable starting pitchers for this matchup are Michael McGreevy for the St. Louis Cardinals and Framber Valdez for the Detroit Tigers [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/stories/game-preview/824299). Framber Valdez, a left-handed pitcher, frequently targets the lower part of the strike zone and below with his sinker and curveball, aiming to induce ground balls; his heatmaps confirm a significant pitch concentration in these low areas [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/framber-valdez/17295/heat-maps?blur=0&count=&data=&grid=kde&hand=&pitch=&position=P&se=&season=&ss=&type=3&view=). Michael McGreevy, a right-handed pitcher, typically locates his fastball and slider on both sides of the plate, often with considerable activity in the lower half of the strike zone and just off the plate, seeking to generate weak contact or swings-and-misses [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/700241). ## How Do Comerica Park's Weather Conditions Affect Run Scoring? Historical Run Factor | 0.963 (3.7% suppression) [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-venue?venueId=2394) | Historical Home Run Factor | 0.880 (12% reduction) [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-venue?venueId=2394) | Forecasted Game Temperature | 67-68Ā°F [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/detroit-tigers-opening-day-forecast-april-3/) | **Comerica Park is historically a "pitcher's park," generally suppressing offensive production** Comerica Park is historically a "pitcher's park," generally suppressing offensive production. Due to its deep dimensions, established ballpark factor models from sources such as FanGraphs and Baseball Savant indicate a run factor of 0.963, which means a reduction in runs scored by approximately **3.7%** compared to a neutral environment [[^]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comerica_Park). Additionally, the home run factor for Comerica Park is 0.880, translating to a roughly **12%** decrease in home runs [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-venue?venueId=2394). It is important to note that these models provide historical averages and do not dynamically adjust for individual game-time weather conditions [[^]](https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/park-factors/). The April 3, 2026 forecast indicates conditions favorable for offense, potentially counteracting the park's historical tendencies. For the St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers game, the weather forecast for Comerica Park projects warm temperatures between 67-68Ā°F, clear, sunny skies, and light winds from the south-southwest at 5-12 mph [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/detroit-tigers-opening-day-forecast-april-3/). Warmer temperatures are known to cause a baseball to travel farther, increasing the likelihood of extra-base hits and home runs [[^]](https://tigersmlreport.com/2025/04/04/ballpark-factor-series-how-the-tigers-may-fare-at-the-beginning-of-the-season/). Furthermore, a south-southwest wind could potentially assist batted balls hit towards right field, given the general orientation of the ballpark [[^]](https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/detroit-tigers-opening-day-forecast-april-3/). Favorable game-time weather will likely mitigate Comerica Park's historical run suppression for this specific contest. While the park's long-standing factors suggest a general suppression of offense, the projected warm temperatures and a light, potentially favorable wind are conducive to increased offensive output. This suggests that the impact of the park's dimensions on run scoring would be lessened for this particular game, enhancing offensive performance relative to typical early-season, colder conditions at Comerica Park [[^]](https://tigersmlreport.com/2025/04/04/ballpark-factor-series-how-the-tigers-may-fare-at-the-beginning-of-the-season/). However, standard ballpark factor models do not provide dynamically adjusted run factors for single games based on real-time weather conditions [[^]](https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/park-factors/). ## What are the Betting Trends for Cardinals vs. Tigers F5 Runs? F5 Total Opening Line | 4.5 runs [[^]](https://www.covers.com/sport/baseball/mlb/matchup/369047/odds) | F5 Total Current Line | 5 runs [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/st-louis-detroit-odds-april-3-2026-2499354) | Money Wagered on F5 Over | 70-72% [[^]](https://www.covers.com/sport/baseball/mlb/matchup/369047/odds) | **The First 5 Innings (F5) run total shifted upwards after opening** The First 5 Innings (F5) run total shifted upwards after opening. For the St. Louis Cardinals vs. Detroit Tigers game on April 3, 2026, the F5 total initially opened at 4.5 runs across major sportsbooks, including DraftKings [[^]](https://www.covers.com/sport/baseball/mlb/matchup/369047/odds). The line has since consistently moved upwards to a consensus of 5 runs, found on various platforms such as DraftKings, OddsShark, and USA TODAY SportsData [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/st-louis-detroit-odds-april-3-2026-2499354). This upward adjustment indicates a heightened expectation for more runs to be scored within the first five innings of the game. Betting patterns reveal a significant divergence between wager types. A notable disparity is evident in the betting patterns for the F5 Over, particularly concerning the percentage of bets versus the percentage of money wagered. Approximately 60-**65%** of all individual bets placed on the F5 total favor the Over [[^]](https://www.covers.com/sport/baseball/mlb/matchup/369047/odds). However, the total money wagered on the F5 Over is considerably higher, ranging from **70%** to **72%** [[^]](https://www.covers.com/sport/baseball/mlb/matchup/369047/odds). This suggests that a smaller number of larger, potentially professional, wagers are heavily backing the Over, contributing a disproportionately large sum to the total money risked and indicating a stronger conviction among those placing larger bets. ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** April 06, 2026 - **Closes:** April 06, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [Olimpia vs Luqueno](/markets/sports/soccer/olimpia-vs-luqueno/) - [Trinidense vs CD Recoleta](/markets/sports/soccer/trinidense-vs-cd-recoleta/) - [Kuzmanov vs Gea](/markets/sports/tennis/kuzmanov-vs-gea/) - [Cadenasso vs Midon](/markets/sports/tennis/cadenasso-vs-midon/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 14 resolved YES, 6 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXMLBF5TOTAL-26APR022145NYMSF-7: YES (Apr 03, 2026) - KXMLBF5TOTAL-26APR022145NYMSF-6: YES (Apr 03, 2026) - KXMLBF5TOTAL-26APR022145NYMSF-5: YES (Apr 03, 2026) - KXMLBF5TOTAL-26APR022145NYMSF-4: YES (Apr 03, 2026) - KXMLBF5TOTAL-26APR022145NYMSF-3: YES (Apr 03, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.