# Detroit vs Atlanta: Home Runs

DET vs ATL (Apr 28)

Updated: April 29, 2026

Category: Sports

Tags: Baseball

HTML: /markets/sports/baseball/detroit-vs-atlanta-home-runs/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Matt Olson to hit at least one home run, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Truist Park is historically pitcher-friendly, suppressing overall home run likelihood.** - Projected high humidity for the game slightly suppresses overall home runs.
- Spencer Torkelson's individual matchup presents a favorable home run opportunity.
- Matt Olson has recently shown strong barrel and hard-hit rates.
- The **market** price recently experienced a notable increase on April 28.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Market**'s 17c price for home runs exceeds the **15.8%** **model** estimate, influenced by park and humidity factors.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Matt Olson: 1+ | 17.0% | 15.8% | Truist Park's pitcher-friendly factor and high humidity generally suppress home run likelihood. |
| Ronald Acuña Jr.: 2+ | 2.0% | 15.8% | Truist Park's pitcher-friendly factor and high humidity generally suppress home run likelihood. |
| Riley Greene: 1+ | 16.0% | 14.9% | Truist Park's pitcher-friendly factor and high humidity generally suppress home run likelihood. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Matt Olson: 1+ | 17.0% | 15.8% |
| Ronald Acuña Jr.: 2+ | 2.0% | 15.8% |
| Riley Greene: 1+ | 16.0% | 14.9% |
| Ronald Acuña Jr.: 1+ | 15.0% | 15.8% |
| Gleyber Torres: 1+ | 9.0% | 14.9% |
| Spencer Torkelson: 1+ | 13.0% | 11.1% |
| Kevin McGonigle: 1+ | 10.0% | 14.9% |
| Ozzie Albies: 1+ | 11.0% | 14.9% |
| Jahmai Jones: 1+ | 12.0% | 14.9% |
| Drake Baldwin: 1+ | 14.0% | 14.9% |
| Dillon Dingler: 1+ | 14.0% | 14.9% |
| Dominic Smith: 1+ | 12.0% | 14.9% |
| Michael Harris: 1+ | 14.0% | 14.9% |
| Matt Olson: 2+ | 3.0% | 15.8% |
| Austin Riley: 1+ | 17.0% | 15.8% |
| Javier Báez: 1+ | 11.0% | 14.9% |
| Dillon Dingler: 2+ | 2.0% | 14.9% |
| Gleyber Torres: 2+ | 1.0% | 14.9% |
| Spencer Torkelson: 2+ | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| Mike Yastrzemski: 1+ | 12.0% | 14.9% |
| Ozzie Albies: 2+ | 2.0% | 14.9% |
| Mauricio Dubón: 1+ | 8.0% | 14.9% |
| Hao-Yu Lee: 1+ | 13.0% | 14.9% |
| Michael Harris: 2+ | 1.0% | 14.9% |
| Jahmai Jones: 2+ | 1.0% | 14.9% |
| Matt Vierling: 1+ | 9.0% | 14.9% |
| Drake Baldwin: 2+ | 1.0% | 14.9% |
| Javier Báez: 2+ | 1.0% | 14.9% |
| Austin Riley: 2+ | 0.0% | 14.9% |
| Dominic Smith: 2+ | 0.0% | 14.9% |
| Hao-Yu Lee: 2+ | 0.0% | 14.9% |
| Kevin McGonigle: 2+ | 0.0% | 14.9% |
| Matt Vierling: 2+ | 0.0% | 14.9% |
| Mauricio Dubón: 2+ | 0.0% | 14.9% |
| Mike Yastrzemski: 2+ | 0.0% | 14.9% |
| Riley Greene: 2+ | 0.0% | 11.1% |

- Expiration: May 1, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This market opened with a very low implied probability of 2.0% before experiencing a dramatic upward trend. The most significant price movement occurred on April 28, 2026, when the probability surged 17.0 percentage points from 2.0% to a peak of 19.0%. Since this initial spike, the price has seen a minor pullback and is currently trading around 17.0%. The overall price action indicates a rapid and substantial re-evaluation of the event's likelihood by market participants shortly after trading began.

The sharp price increase was not correlated with any specific news or developments provided in the context. Instead, the movement appears to be driven by the market's opening and initial price discovery phase. Trading volume was zero at the starting price, but a significant influx of trading accompanied the price spike and the subsequent stabilization. The increase in volume from near zero to over 7,000 total contracts suggests that the initial low price was quickly rejected and that conviction grew among traders as a new, higher price level was established.

From a technical perspective, the market's peak near 20.0% has acted as an initial resistance level. The current price of 17.0% may be forming a new support or consolidation range. The price action clearly indicates that market sentiment has shifted from extremely bearish at the open to moderately bullish. The current price reflects a significantly higher collective belief in the "YES" outcome compared to when the market was first listed.

## Significant Price Movements

#### 📈 April 28, 2026: 17.0pp spike

Price increased from 2.0% to 19.0%

**Outcome:** Matt Olson: 1+

**What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if Spencer Torkelson records one or more home runs in the Detroit vs Atlanta professional baseball game on April 28, 2026, provided he is in the starting lineup and records at least one plate appearance. Otherwise, if these conditions are met and he records no home runs, it resolves to NO. The market resolves to the fair market price if Torkelson is scratched, not in the starting lineup, starts but has no plate appearance, or enters as a substitute (pinch-hit at-bats do not count). The market opened on April 28, 2026, at 4:19 PM EDT, closes after the game's outcome (or by May 1, 2026, 7:15 PM EDT), with payouts projected 5 minutes after closing.

## Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Austin Riley: 1+ | 3% | 12% | 17% | $965.17 | $965.17 |
| Austin Riley: 2+ | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Drake Baldwin: 1+ | 10% | 14% | 14% | $2,504.56 | $2,504.56 |
| Drake Baldwin: 2+ | 0% | 2% | 1% | $100 | $100 |
| Dominic Smith: 1+ | 3% | 9% | 12% | $1,954.13 | $1,954.13 |
| Dominic Smith: 2+ | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Mauricio Dubón: 1+ | 3% | 6% | 8% | $219.07 | $219.07 |
| Mauricio Dubón: 2+ | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Michael Harris: 1+ | 3% | 15% | 14% | $1,389.27 | $1,389.27 |
| Michael Harris: 2+ | 0% | 4% | 1% | $167 | $167 |
| Matt Olson: 1+ | 9% | 17% | 17% | $7,370.33 | $7,369.33 |
| Matt Olson: 2+ | 0% | 2% | 3% | $1,166.2 | $1,166.2 |
| Mike Yastrzemski: 1+ | 3% | 14% | 12% | $329.96 | $329.96 |
| Mike Yastrzemski: 2+ | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Ozzie Albies: 1+ | 3% | 11% | 11% | $2,650.99 | $2,650.99 |
| Ozzie Albies: 2+ | 0% | 4% | 2% | $294.5 | $294.5 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr.: 1+ | 5% | 17% | 15% | $5,017.83 | $4,990.83 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr.: 2+ | 0% | 2% | 2% | $6,702.67 | $6,702.67 |
| Dillon Dingler: 1+ | 3% | 10% | 14% | $2,245.39 | $2,245.39 |
| Dillon Dingler: 2+ | 0% | 2% | 2% | $523.22 | $523.22 |
| Gleyber Torres: 1+ | 3% | 6% | 9% | $4,181.31 | $4,181.31 |
| Gleyber Torres: 2+ | 0% | 2% | 1% | $383.42 | $383.42 |
| Hao-Yu Lee: 1+ | 3% | 9% | 13% | $193.3 | $193.3 |
| Hao-Yu Lee: 2+ | 0% | 5% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Javier Báez: 1+ | 3% | 7% | 11% | $630.4 | $630.4 |
| Javier Báez: 2+ | 0% | 2% | 1% | $33 | $33 |
| Jahmai Jones: 1+ | 3% | 8% | 12% | $2,597.63 | $2,597.63 |
| Jahmai Jones: 2+ | 0% | 3% | 1% | $109 | $109 |
| Kevin McGonigle: 1+ | 3% | 9% | 10% | $3,595.21 | $3,595.21 |
| Kevin McGonigle: 2+ | 0% | 3% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Matt Vierling: 1+ | 3% | 8% | 9% | $106 | $106 |
| Matt Vierling: 2+ | 0% | 1% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Riley Greene: 1+ | 4% | 10% | 16% | $5,783.72 | $5,783.72 |
| Riley Greene: 2+ | 0% | 2% | 0% | $0 | $0 |
| Spencer Torkelson: 1+ | 4% | 12% | 13% | $4,133.17 | $4,130.17 |
| Spencer Torkelson: 2+ | 0% | 2% | 1% | $358.3 | $358.3 |

## What are the key pitcher and hitter stats for Tigers vs Braves April 28, 2026?

Detroit Starting Pitcher | Casey Mize [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/previews/2026/ATL202604280.shtml) |
Atlanta Starting Pitcher | Martín Pérez [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/previews/2026/ATL202604280.shtml) |
Torkelson vs. Sinkers (2026) | .285 ISO,.395 wOBA [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/spencer-torkelson/27465/pitch-type-splits?position=1B) |

**The April 28, 2026 matchup features specific starting pitchers and their primary pitches**

The April 28, 2026 matchup features specific starting pitchers and their primary pitches. For the game between the Detroit Tigers and the Atlanta Braves, Casey Mize is confirmed to start for the Tigers, while Martín Pérez will start for the Braves [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/previews/2026/ATL202604280.shtml). In the 2026 season, Casey Mize primarily utilizes a four-seam fastball (approximately **43.2%** usage), a slider (around **29.5%**), and a splitter (**14.8%**) [[^]](https://www.brooksbaseball.net/landing.php?player=663554). Martín Pérez's main offerings for 2026 include his sinker (**38.7%** usage), a cutter (**23.4%**), and a changeup (**16.2%**) [[^]](https://www.brooksbaseball.net/landing.php?player=527048).

Spencer Torkelson shows strong performance against primary pitches in this matchup. Of the Tigers, Spencer Torkelson has demonstrated robust performance against several pitch types relevant to the April 28 game, based on his 2026 season statistics [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/spencer-torkelson/27465/pitch-type-splits?position=1B). Against sinkers, he posted a.285 isolated power (ISO) and a.395 weighted on-base average (wOBA) [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/spencer-torkelson/27465/pitch-type-splits?position=1B). He also recorded strong numbers against four-seam fastballs with a.310 ISO and a.415 wOBA [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/spencer-torkelson/27465/pitch-type-splits?position=1B). Furthermore, Torkelson maintains a.210 ISO and a.330 wOBA versus cutters, and a.255 ISO and a.360 wOBA against changeups [[^]](https://www.fangraphs.com/players/spencer-torkelson/27465/pitch-type-splits?position=1B).

Specific pitch-type performance data is unavailable for other key power hitters. For other notable power hitters, such as Matt Olson [[^]](https://fantasyteamadvice.com/mlb/players/3530/matt-olson/stats/2026) and Austin Riley [[^]](https://fantasyteamadvice.com/mlb/players/3389/austin-riley/stats/2026) from the Braves, and Riley Greene [[^]](https://fantasyteamadvice.com/mlb/players/3465/riley-greene/stats/2026) from the Tigers, pitch-type specific isolated power (ISO) and weighted on-base average (wOBA) splits were not provided in the research.

## What is the Gameday Forecast for Truist Park on April 28, 2026?

Gameday Temperature | Low to mid-60s Fahrenheit (e.g., 65°F at 7 PM EDT) [[^]](https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/truist-park/30339/hourly-weather-forecast/196689_poi) |
Gameday Humidity | Around 70-80% [[^]](https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/truist-park/30339/hourly-weather-forecast/196689_poi) |
Gameday Wind | Light, 5-8 mph from south-southwest [[^]](https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/truist-park/30339/hourly-weather-forecast/196689_poi) |

**The April 28, 2026 forecast for Truist Park indicates moderate conditions**

The April 28, 2026 forecast for Truist Park indicates moderate conditions. Temperatures are projected to be in the low to mid-60s Fahrenheit, with similar "realfeel" temperatures. Humidity levels are expected to be relatively high, ranging from 70-**80%** throughout the evening. Winds are forecast as light, primarily from the south-southwest at speeds of 5-8 mph, under minimal to partly cloudy skies [[^]](https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/truist-park/30339/hourly-weather-forecast/196689_poi).

Truist Park typically suppresses home runs, and current forecasts align with this. Historically, the venue is considered slightly neutral to pitcher-friendly for home runs, evidenced by a Statcast Park Factor of 0.945, which suggests it slightly suppresses home runs compared to an average MLB park [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-venue?venueId=4705). While factors such as strong outbound winds, higher temperatures, and lower humidity can generally increase home run rates, the predicted light winds from the south-southwest, moderate temperatures, and high humidity for the gameday are not expected to significantly elevate home run production beyond the park's established historical tendencies [[^]](https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/truist-park/30339/hourly-weather-forecast/196689_poi).

## Are Sharp Money Movements Influencing MLB Home Run Odds?

Ronald Acuña Jr. Home Run Odds | +350 (April 28, 2026) [[^]](https://athlonsports.com/betting/home-run-prop-bets-mlb-odds-tuesday-april28-2026) |
Matt Olson Home Run Odds | +295 (April 28, 2026) [[^]](https://athlonsports.com/betting/home-run-prop-bets-mlb-odds-tuesday-april28-2026) |
Spencer Torkelson Home Run Odds | +550 (April 28, 2026) [[^]](https://athlonsports.com/betting/home-run-prop-bets-mlb-odds-tuesday-april28-2026) |

**Current individual player home run prop odds are available for an upcoming MLB game**

Current individual player home run prop odds are available for an upcoming MLB game. For the April 28, 2026, Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves game, specific odds have been provided for various players. Atlanta Braves players Ronald Acuña Jr. is listed at +350, Matt Olson at +295, Austin Riley at +390, and Marcell Ozuna at +400 to hit a home run. From the Detroit Tigers, Spencer Torkelson has odds of +550, and Riley Greene is at +650 [[^]](https://athlonsports.com/betting/home-run-prop-bets-mlb-odds-tuesday-april28-2026). These figures indicate potential returns, such as a **$100** wager on Matt Olson resulting in a **$295** profit if he successfully hits a home run [[^]](https://athlonsports.com/betting/home-run-prop-bets-mlb-odds-tuesday-april28-2026).

The research lacks historical line movement data and sharp money indicators. Although current betting opportunities are outlined, the provided information does not detail how these individual player home run prop betting lines have moved since their opening on high-volume sportsbooks like DraftKings or FanDuel. Crucially, there is no explicit indication within the available research of significant sharp money influencing either side for specific player home run props [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb-game/tigers-braves-score-odds-april-28-2026/287575). The scope of the current research primarily covers present betting odds and predictions, rather than offering insights into past line shifts or comprehensive analyses of betting **market** dynamics.

## How Are Atlanta Braves Power Hitters Performing (April 2024)?

Matt Olson Barrel% | 8.1% (April 14-28, 2024) [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/621566?stats=statcast-r-bat_tracking-mlb) |
Ronald Acuña Jr. Barrel% | 0.0% (April 14-28, 2024) [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/660670?stats=statcast-r-bat_tracking-mlb) |
Austin Riley Barrel% | 2.6% (April 14-28, 2024) [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/austin-riley-663586?stats=statcast-r-bat_tracking-mlb) |

**Matt Olson shows strong barrel and hard-hit rates**

Matt Olson shows strong barrel and hard-hit rates. Between April 14 and 28, 2024, Olson demonstrated a robust batted-ball profile, recording an **8.1%** Barrel rate, a **45.9%** Hard-Hit percentage, and a **37.8%** Fly-Ball percentage across 37 batted ball events [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/621566?stats=statcast-r-bat_tracking-mlb). In contrast, Ronald Acuña Jr. registered a **0.0%** Barrel rate during the same period, despite a solid **45.7%** Hard-Hit percentage and **37.1%** Fly-Ball percentage from 35 BBE [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/660670?stats=statcast-r-bat_tracking-mlb). This profile suggests that while Acuña Jr. is making hard contact and hitting the ball in the air, he is not consistently achieving the optimal combination of exit velocity and launch angle required for barrels, which could indicate an underperformance in converting hard contact into maximum power output.

Austin Riley and Acuña Jr. exhibit low barrel rates. Austin Riley posted a **2.6%** Barrel rate, a **39.5%** Hard-Hit percentage, and a **26.3%** Fly-Ball percentage over 38 batted ball events [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/austin-riley-663586?stats=statcast-r-bat_tracking-mlb). The barrel rates for both Acuña Jr. (**0.0%**) and Riley (**2.6%**) are notably low for established power hitters, indicating a potential underperformance in their underlying power capabilities during this recent span, even with Acuña Jr.'s consistent hard contact. It should also be noted that a comprehensive analysis of Detroit Tigers power threats was not possible due to the absence of specific individual player Statcast data in the provided sources [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/team/116), [[^]](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/team/116?season=2026).

## Who Is the Home Plate Umpire for Tigers vs. Braves 2026?

Umpire Assignment Status | Not yet announced [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401815120/tigers-braves) |
Game Date | April 28, 2026 [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401815120/tigers-braves) |
Assignment Release Timing | Typically a day or two before the game [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/official-information/umpires) |

**The umpire for the upcoming Tigers-Braves game remains unannounced**

The umpire for the upcoming Tigers-Braves game remains unannounced. As of the current date, the assigned home plate umpire for the Detroit Tigers versus Atlanta Braves game scheduled for April 28, 2026, has not been disclosed [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401815120/tigers-braves). Major League Baseball typically releases umpire assignments only a day or two before a scheduled game [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/official-information/umpires). Therefore, identifying the specific individual assigned to home plate for this future matchup is not possible with the currently available information.

Umpire historical tendencies cannot be assessed without an assignment. Consequently, detailed historical tendencies regarding strike zone accuracy and consistency, especially concerning borderline pitches in two-strike counts where hitters are more likely to be defensive, cannot be provided for this game at present. Such specific statistical data is tracked individually for each umpire; however, this analysis can only be performed once the identity of the assigned umpire is officially known. The available sources, including various game summaries, box scores, and official MLB umpire information, do not contain future umpire assignments or predictive data this far in advance [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401815120/tigers-braves).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable.

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** May 01, 2026
- **Closes:** May 01, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- Catalyst analysis unavailable.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 1 resolved YES, 19 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXMLBHR-26APR272210MIALAD-MIAXEDWARDS9-1: NO (Apr 28, 2026)
- KXMLBHR-26APR272210MIALAD-LADWSMITH16-2: NO (Apr 28, 2026)
- KXMLBHR-26APR272210MIALAD-LADWSMITH16-1: NO (Apr 28, 2026)
- KXMLBHR-26APR272210MIALAD-MIAOCAISSIE17-2: NO (Apr 28, 2026)
- KXMLBHR-26APR272210MIALAD-MIAOCAISSIE17-1: NO (Apr 28, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.