# Colorado vs Philadelphia

COL vs PHI (May 9)

Updated: May 9, 2026

Category: Sports

Tags: Baseball

HTML: /markets/sports/baseball/colorado-vs-philadelphia/

## Short Answer

**Key takeaway.** Both the **model** and the **market** expect Philadelphia to win, seeing no actionable edge.

## Key Claims (January 2026)

**- - Rockies secured an extra-inning victory against Phillies on May 8, 2026.** - Phillies' starter Nola's underlying metrics suggest a potential performance decline.
- **Market** sentiment consistently favors the Philadelphia Phillies as strong favorites.
- Colorado Rockies show stronger overall offensive production this 2026 season.
- Philadelphia holds a significant historical advantage in head-to-head matchups.
- Bullpen usage from the May 8 game may impact the matchup outcome.

### Why This Matters (GEO)

- AI agents extract claims, not arguments.
- Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards.
- Enables fact stitching across multiple sources.

## Executive Verdict

**Key takeaway.** **Market** prices Colorado at 37c, aligning closely with the **36.6%** **model** **probability**, for a 2.7x payout.

### Who Wins and Why

| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Colorado | 37.0% | 36.6% | The Rockies secured an extra-inning victory against the favored Phillies on May 8, 2026, demonstrating their capability to win. |
| Philadelphia | 64.0% | 63.4% | The Phillies hold a significant historical advantage over the Rockies in head-to-head matchups. |

## Model vs Market

| Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Colorado | 37.0% | 36.6% |
| Philadelphia | 64.0% | 63.4% |

- Expiration: May 12, 2026

## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics

This prediction market has experienced a significant downward trend, with the probability of a Colorado win collapsing from a high of 73.0% to a current price of 37.0%. The most dramatic movement occurred between May 6 and May 8, when the price plummeted from 73.0% to 38.0%. This sharp decline appears to be a direct reaction to the game on May 8, where the Colorado Rockies defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 9-7 in extra innings. The market appears to have drastically reassessed the probability of a second consecutive Rockies victory following that result, leading to a sharp reversal in sentiment against Colorado for the May 9 matchup.

Trading volume patterns indicate a surge in market conviction behind this new valuation. Initial trading was extremely light, but volume increased massively on May 9, suggesting traders are actively establishing positions at this lower price level. The price has since stabilized in a narrow range between 37.0% and 38.0%, which is now acting as a key support level. Overall, the chart suggests a complete sentiment reversal. An initial, strong belief in a Colorado victory has been replaced by a market consensus that now gives the Phillies a significantly higher probability of winning the May 9 game, a belief solidified by a high volume of recent trades.

## Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the Philadelphia team wins the professional baseball game against Colorado, originally scheduled for May 9, 2026, at 6:05 PM EDT. Conversely, if Philadelphia does not win, the market resolves to NO. The market opened on May 6, 2026, and closes after the outcome occurs or by May 12, 2026, with a projected payout two minutes after closing. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game (within two days); if cancelled or rescheduled beyond two days, it resolves to a fair price.

## Market Discussion

The Phillies were widely considered the stronger team, often favored to cover the run line (-1.5) due to the Rockies' struggles, especially on the road, despite some recent inconsistencies [[^]](https://www.crossingbroad.com/news/phillies/phillies-vs-rockies-picks-predictions-matchup-preview-scrubbing-off-the-stench/). Many experts also predicted a high-scoring game, with totals set around 7.5 to 8.5 runs, given both teams' pitching staffs had similar ERAs, though some identified value in specific pitchers like Luzardo despite a prior poor outing [[^]](https://www.crossingbroad.com/news/phillies/phillies-vs-rockies-picks-predictions-matchup-preview-scrubbing-off-the-stench/). While some anticipated the Phillies to score over 4.5 runs and Bryce Harper to exceed 1.5 total bases, a notable prediction also emerged for the Rockies to win on the moneyline (+145 or better) following their extra-innings upset on May 8th [[^]](https://www.crossingbroad.com/news/phillies/phillies-vs-rockies-picks-predictions-matchup-preview-scrubbing-off-the-stench/).

## Market Data

| Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Colorado | 36% | 37% | 37% | $20,095.84 | $18,948.01 |
| Philadelphia | 63% | 64% | 64% | $19,029.38 | $18,249.52 |

## How do the offensive production and hitting metrics of the Colorado Rockies and Philadelphia Phillies compare for the 2026 season?

Home Runs (Phillies) | 120 [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/team/2026-philadelphia-phillies-27/2026) |
Runs (Rockies) | 172 [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/team/2026-colorado-rockies-95/2026) |
Season Record (Phillies) | 17-22 [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PHI/2026.shtml)[[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/team/2026-philadelphia-phillies-27/2026) |

**Colorado Rockies show stronger overall offensive production in 2026**

Colorado Rockies show stronger overall offensive production in 2026. For the current 2026 season, the Rockies have outperformed the Philadelphia Phillies in several key offensive metrics. The Rockies have accumulated 172 runs, 337 hits, 71 doubles, and 167 RBIs [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/team/2026-colorado-rockies-95/2026). In comparison, the Phillies have tallied 155 runs, 307 hits, 57 doubles, and 153 RBIs [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/team/2026-philadelphia-phillies-27/2026).

Philadelphia Phillies demonstrate superior power hitting despite similar records. Despite the Rockies' higher overall numbers, the Phillies hold a significant advantage in power-hitting categories. The Phillies have hit 120 home runs compared to the Rockies' 57, and also lead in triples with 8 against the Rockies' 6 [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/team/2026-colorado-rockies-95/2026)[[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/team/2026-philadelphia-phillies-27/2026). The Rockies currently maintain a season record of 16-23, positioning them fourth in the NL West [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/team/2026-colorado-rockies-95/2026)[[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PHI/2026.shtml). The Phillies have a slightly better record at 17-22, placing them third in the NL East [[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/team/2026-colorado-rockies-95/2026)[[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PHI/2026.shtml)[[^]](https://www.statmuse.com/mlb/team/2026-philadelphia-phillies-27/2026).

## What performance trends and historical data support the Philadelphia Phillies' status as the betting favorite against the Colorado Rockies?

Phillies Implied Win Probability | 62% (Polymarket) [[^]](https://polymarket.com/sports/mlb/mlb-col-phi-2026-05-09) |
Pitching ERA Gap | 1.71 ERA (favoring Philadelphia) [[^]](https://www.predictem.com/mlb/rockies-phillies-mlb-betting-prediction-05-08-2026/) |
Historical Head-to-Head Record | Phillies 138 wins, Rockies 103 losses [[^]](http://mcubed.net/mlb/col/phi.shtml) |

**The Philadelphia Phillies are heavily favored against the Colorado Rockies**

The Philadelphia Phillies are heavily favored against the Colorado Rockies. For the May 9, 2026 game, Polymarket indicates a **62%** implied **probability** for the Phillies compared to **39%** for the Rockies [[^]](https://polymarket.com/sports/mlb/mlb-col-phi-2026-05-09). This preference is largely attributed to a significant pitching advantage in the upcoming matchup. Philadelphia’s Chase Dollander boasts a 3.38 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, starkly better than Colorado’s Jesus Luzardo, who has a 5.09 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. This creates a considerable 1.71 ERA gap favoring the Phillies’ pitcher [[^]](https://www.predictem.com/mlb/rockies-phillies-mlb-betting-prediction-05-08-2026/). Despite both teams experiencing unfavorable early-season run differentials, the Phillies maintain their moneyline favorite status, suggesting that bettors are prioritizing this distinct pitching edge [[^]](https://www2.teamrankings.com/mlb/matchup/rockies-phillies-2026-05-09).

Historical dominance and recent results further support Philadelphia's favored status. The Phillies have an impressive overall series record against the Rockies, securing 138 wins to 103 losses in their matchup history [[^]](http://mcubed.net/mlb/col/phi.shtml). This translates to the Rockies having an overall win percentage of just **42.7%** when facing Philadelphia [[^]](http://mcubed.net/mlb/col/phi.shtml). Furthermore, the Phillies have maintained recent momentum in head-to-head contests, including a 4-1 victory on April 5, 2026, and other wins spanning the 2024-2026 period [[^]](https://champsorchumps.us/team/mlb/colorado-rockies/head-to-head/philadelphia-phillies).

## What potential last-minute factors, such as bullpen usage from the May 8 game or lineup changes, could impact the outcome of the Rockies vs. Phillies matchup?

Rockies bullpen projection | One of the weakest in MLB [[^]](https://evanalytics.com/articles/mlb-game-previews/current-player-trends-for-rockies-vs-phillies-saturday-may-09-2026/)[[^]](https://www.sportscapitoldc.com/2026/05/08/rockies-blow-6-run-lead-before-beating-phillies-in-11/)[[^]](https://lasvegassun.com/news/2026/may/08/troy-johnston-has-go-ahead-hit-in-11th-as-rockies-/)[[^]](https://www.greenwichtime.com/sports/article/troy-johnston-has-go-ahead-hit-in-11th-as-rockies-22250233.php)[[^]](https://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/rockies-phillies-score-v52629)[[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/colorado-rockies-vs-philadelphia-phillies-may-08-2026-game-boxscore-95273) |
Rockies probable starter | Kyle Freeland (left-hander) [[^]](https://www.fanduel.com/research/phillies-vs-rockies-mlb-odds-prediction-point-spread-over-under-and-betting-trends-for-5-9-2026)[[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/colorado-rockies-vs-philadelphia-phillies-prediction-pick-odds-mlb-saturday-may-9)[[^]](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/rockies-phillies-prediction-odds-player-prop-bets-picks-may-9-2026-jaa-mlb/) |
Freeland's performance trend | Performs better in road games than at Coors Field [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/colorado-rockies-vs-philadelphia-phillies-prediction-pick-odds-mlb-saturday-may-9) |

**Bullpen fatigue and player availability are key last-minute considerations for the May 9th matchup**

Bullpen fatigue and player availability are key last-minute considerations for the May 9th matchup. Bullpen usage from the May 8th game is a significant factor, potentially impacting the effectiveness or availability of key Rockies relievers, notably Brad Keller, due to workload [[^]](https://evanalytics.com/articles/mlb-game-previews/current-player-trends-for-rockies-vs-phillies-saturday-may-09-2026/)[[^]](https://www.sportscapitoldc.com/2026/05/08/rockies-blow-6-run-lead-before-beating-phillies-in-11/)[[^]](https://lasvegassun.com/news/2026/may/08/troy-johnston-has-go-ahead-hit-in-11th-as-rockies-/)[[^]](https://www.greenwichtime.com/sports/article/troy-johnston-has-go-ahead-hit-in-11th-as-rockies-22250233.php)[[^]](https://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/rockies-phillies-score-v52629)[[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/colorado-rockies-vs-philadelphia-phillies-may-08-2026-game-boxscore-95273). This consideration is particularly relevant as the Rockies' bullpen is broadly considered one of MLB's weakest [[^]](https://evanalytics.com/articles/mlb-game-previews/current-player-trends-for-rockies-vs-phillies-saturday-may-09-2026/)[[^]](https://www.sportscapitoldc.com/2026/05/08/rockies-blow-6-run-lead-before-beating-phillies-in-11/)[[^]](https://lasvegassun.com/news/2026/may/08/troy-johnston-has-go-ahead-hit-in-11th-as-rockies-/)[[^]](https://www.greenwichtime.com/sports/article/troy-johnston-has-go-ahead-hit-in-11th-as-rockies-22250233.php)[[^]](https://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/rockies-phillies-score-v52629)[[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/colorado-rockies-vs-philadelphia-phillies-may-08-2026-game-boxscore-95273). In terms of player status, Rockies player Willi Castro, who experienced knee soreness in April, demonstrated his active status by playing and scoring a run in the May 8th game [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/rockies/video/feltner-castro-leave-game-with-apparent-injury)[[^]](https://www.sportscapitoldc.com/2026/05/08/rockies-blow-6-run-lead-before-beating-phillies-in-11/)[[^]](https://lasvegassun.com/news/2026/may/08/troy-johnston-has-go-ahead-hit-in-11th-as-rockies-/)[[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/colorado-rockies-vs-philadelphia-phillies-may-09-2026-game-boxscore-95292?tab=boxscore)[[^]](https://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/rockies-phillies-score-v52629). The Rockies currently have starting pitcher Ryan Feltner on the 15-day injured list, nearing a rehab assignment, and designated hitter Kris Bryant also on the injured list [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/rockies-injuries-and-roster-moves?adobe_mc=TS%3D1702158748%7CMCMID%3D47832425274010314234879038885557383652%7CMCORGID%3DA65F776A5245B01B0A490D44%40AdobeOrg&rsid=mlbios.at.bat.new.implementation&affiliateId=mlbapp-ios_referral)[[^]](https://www.mlb.com/news/rockies-injuries-and-roster-moves)[[^]](https://sportsdata.usatoday.com/baseball/mlb/teams/colorado-rockies/251/injuries)[[^]](https://www.si.com/mlb/rockies/onsi/mounting-rockies-injuries-could-derail-positive-start-to-2026-season)[[^]](https://www.foxsports.com/mlb/colorado-rockies-vs-philadelphia-phillies-may-09-2026-game-boxscore-95292?tab=boxscore). The Phillies, conversely, are dealing with minor injury concerns affecting their relief pitching depth or prospects [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/news/phillies-injuries-and-roster-moves)[[^]](https://sportsdata.usatoday.com/baseball/mlb/teams/philadelphia-phillies/246/injuries)[[^]](https://www.covers.com/sport/baseball/mlb/teams/main/philadelphia-phillies/injuries)[[^]](https://site-prod.sportsforecaster.com/index.php/mlb/injuries?team=l.mlb.com-t.19)[[^]](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/teams/phi/philadelphia-phillies/injuries/).

Pitching matchups and potential lineup adjustments could influence the game's outcome. For the Rockies, left-hander Kyle Freeland is the probable starter [[^]](https://www.fanduel.com/research/phillies-vs-rockies-mlb-odds-prediction-point-spread-over-under-and-betting-trends-for-5-9-2026)[[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/colorado-rockies-vs-philadelphia-phillies-prediction-pick-odds-mlb-saturday-may-9)[[^]](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/rockies-phillies-prediction-odds-player-prop-bets-picks-may-9-2026-jaa-mlb/), a factor that might facilitate Bohm's return to the Phillies' lineup, potentially strengthening their offense [[^]](https://www.si.com/mlb/phillies/onsi/phillies-smartly-keep-former-all-star-on-bench-in-opener-against-rockies)[[^]](https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/box-score/phillies-vs-rockies-2026-05-08-2941860). Historically, Freeland has shown better performance in road games compared to his starts at Coors Field [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/colorado-rockies-vs-philadelphia-phillies-prediction-pick-odds-mlb-saturday-may-9). The Phillies are expected to start Aaron Nola [[^]](https://www.fanduel.com/research/phillies-vs-rockies-mlb-odds-prediction-point-spread-over-under-and-betting-trends-for-5-9-2026)[[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/colorado-rockies-vs-philadelphia-phillies-prediction-pick-odds-mlb-saturday-may-9)[[^]](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/rockies-phillies-prediction-odds-player-prop-bets-picks-may-9-2026-jaa-mlb/), though his underlying statistics from 2026 suggest a potential decline [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/colorado-rockies-vs-philadelphia-phillies-prediction-pick-odds-mlb-saturday-may-9).

## What evidence supports the Colorado Rockies as a value underdog, considering their recent performance and specific situational trends?

Rockies Record | 15-23 with a Last 10 of 3-7 (Baseball-Reference) [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/previews/2026/PHI202605090.shtml) |
Phillies Record | 17-21 with a Last 10 of 8-2 (Baseball-Reference) [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/previews/2026/PHI202605090.shtml) |
Rockies Team Total Over | 12 of their last 17 games (May 9 preview article) [[^]](https://evanalytics.com/articles/mlb-game-previews/current-player-trends-for-rockies-vs-phillies-saturday-may-09-2026/) |

**For their May 9, 2026 matchup, the Colorado Rockies were considered a value underdog**

For their May 9, 2026 matchup, the Colorado Rockies were considered a value underdog. The Rockies were assigned plus-money odds against the Philadelphia Phillies, who were designated as moneyline favorites, creating a value underdog narrative despite Philadelphia's stronger recent statistical performance [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/colorado-rockies-vs-philadelphia-phillies-prediction-pick-odds-mlb-saturday-may-9). This underdog status stemmed from Colorado's 15-23 season record and a 3-7 performance in their last ten games, contrasting with Philadelphia's 17-21 record and a robust 8-2 showing over the same ten-game stretch [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/previews/2026/PHI202605090.shtml).

Specific situational trends provided evidence for the Rockies as a value underdog. One notable offensive trend indicated the Rockies had exceeded their team total in 12 of their last 17 games, suggesting an ability to score runs that could bolster an underdog wager [[^]](https://evanalytics.com/articles/mlb-game-previews/current-player-trends-for-rockies-vs-phillies-saturday-may-09-2026/). Furthermore, a matchup-driven analysis proposed that the **market** potentially overvalued Philadelphia's home field advantage while undervaluing a significant 1.71 ERA difference between the starting pitchers, Kyle Freeland for Colorado and Aaron Nola for Philadelphia [[^]](https://www.predictem.com/mlb/rockies-phillies-mlb-betting-prediction-05-08-2026/). This analysis suggested that the perceived underdog value for Colorado, priced at approximately +184, originated more from this pitching separation than from recent team form [[^]](https://www.predictem.com/mlb/rockies-phillies-mlb-betting-prediction-05-08-2026/).

## How have the moneyline and run line for the Rockies vs. Phillies game moved since opening, and what do these shifts indicate about market sentiment?

Phillies implied probability | 62% [[^]](https://polymarket.com/sports/mlb/mlb-col-phi-2026-05-09) |
Rockies implied probability | 39% [[^]](https://polymarket.com/sports/mlb/mlb-col-phi-2026-05-09) |
Phillies moneyline odds | -190 to -238 [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/colorado-philadelphia-odds-may-9-2026-2501427)[[^]](https://www.predictem.com/mlb/rockies-phillies-mlb-betting-prediction-05-08-2026/)[[^]](https://oddsindex.com/sports/mlb/game-previews/44979208-colorado-rockies-at-philadelphia-phillies) |

**Specific movement data for betting lines is currently unavailable**

Specific movement data for betting lines is currently unavailable. The available research does not provide specific opening-to-current deltas for both the moneyline and the -/+1.5 run line for the Rockies vs. Phillies game. This makes it impossible to confidently quantify how these lines have moved since opening [[^]](https://www.oddstrader.com/mlb/matchups/colorado-rockies-vs-philadelphia-phillies-2026-05-09-e4782527/)[[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/colorado-philadelphia-odds-may-9-2026-2501427)[[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb-game/rockies-phillies-score-odds-may-8-2026/287946).

Current **market** sentiment strongly favors the Philadelphia Phillies. Despite the absence of specific line movement data, current **market** sentiment clearly indicates that Philadelphia is favored [[^]](https://polymarket.com/sports/mlb/mlb-col-phi-2026-05-09)[[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/colorado-philadelphia-odds-may-9-2026-2501427)[[^]](https://www.predictem.com/mlb/rockies-phillies-mlb-betting-prediction-05-08-2026/)[[^]](https://oddsindex.com/sports/mlb/game-previews/44979208-colorado-rockies-at-philadelphia-phillies). Polymarket's "Colorado vs Philadelphia" **market**, resolving for the COL vs PHI game on May 9, shows the Phillies at 62¢, representing a **62%** implied **probability**, and the Rockies at 39¢, with a **39%** implied **probability** [[^]](https://polymarket.com/sports/mlb/mlb-col-phi-2026-05-09). This indicates a **market** consensus that Philadelphia is substantially more likely to win [[^]](https://polymarket.com/sports/mlb/mlb-col-phi-2026-05-09). Bookmaker-style snapshots further support this, showing Philadelphia favored on the moneyline around -190 and as high as -220/-238, which aligns with the **market** leaning toward the Phillies as the favorite [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/colorado-philadelphia-odds-may-9-2026-2501427)[[^]](https://www.predictem.com/mlb/rockies-phillies-mlb-betting-prediction-05-08-2026/)[[^]](https://oddsindex.com/sports/mlb/game-previews/44979208-colorado-rockies-at-philadelphia-phillies).

## What Could Change the Odds

**Market probabilities on platforms like Polymarket indicate shifts in implied probabilities as key catalysts.** For the May 8, 2026 matchup between the Rockies and Phillies, Phillies contracts were priced at 67.0¢ (**67%** implied **probability**) compared to the Rockies at 33.0¢ (**33%**), with Phillies-backed contracts being bullish [[^]](https://explorer.struct.to/markets/mlb-col-phi-2026-05-08). A similar pricing of Phillies at 67¢ (**67%** implied **probability**) and Rockies at 33¢ (**33%**) was noted for the May 10, 2026 game, reinforcing the Phillies as the favorite across multiple games in that series window [[^]](https://polymarket.com/sports/mlb/mlb-col-phi-2026-05-10).

**Game-specific factors, such as pitching matchups, are significant catalysts for market changes.** For the series opener, probable pitchers were listed as Rockies' Chase Dollander (3-2, 3.38 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 42 K) against Phillies' Jesus Luzardo (3-3, 5.09 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 51 K), with a moneyline around Phillies -222 and a total of 7.5 runs [[^]](https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/phillies-host-rockies-first-3-075544195.html). Any changes to these expected lineups or performance during the game could impact **market** sentiment. The scheduled dates of the three games in the series, on May 8, May 9, and May 10, 2026, also provide specific windows for **market** activity [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/previews/2026/PHI202605090.shtml).

**Beyond overall game outcomes, specific prop bets on platforms like Kalshi for Rockies vs Phillies games, covering statistics such as strikeouts and hits, act as separate catalysts [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlbks/-/kxmlbks-26may091805colphi)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlbhit/pro-baseball-hits/kxmlbhit-26may091805colphi).** Bullish or bearish positioning on these props can vary independently depending on the live game narrative, including pitching and lineups, as their resolution is tied to the specified stat [[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlbks/-/kxmlbks-26may091805colphi)[[^]](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmlbhit/pro-baseball-hits/kxmlbhit-26may091805colphi).

## Key Dates & Catalysts

- **Expiration:** May 12, 2026
- **Closes:** May 12, 2026

## Decision-Flipping Events

- **Market** probabilities on platforms like Polymarket indicate shifts in implied probabilities as key catalysts.
- For the May 8, 2026 matchup between the Rockies and Phillies, Phillies contracts were priced at 67.0¢ (**67%** implied **probability**) compared to the Rockies at 33.0¢ (**33%**), with Phillies-backed contracts being bullish [^] .
- A similar pricing of Phillies at 67¢ (**67%** implied **probability**) and Rockies at 33¢ (**33%**) was noted for the May 10, 2026 game, reinforcing the Phillies as the favorite across multiple games in that series window [^] .
- Game-specific factors, such as pitching matchups, are significant catalysts for **market** changes.

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## Historical Resolutions

**Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series

**Outcomes:** 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO

**Recent resolutions:**

- KXMLBGAME-26MAY082210ATLLAD-LAD: YES (May 09, 2026)
- KXMLBGAME-26MAY082210ATLLAD-ATL: NO (May 09, 2026)
- KXMLBGAME-26MAY082215PITSF-SF: YES (May 09, 2026)
- KXMLBGAME-26MAY082215PITSF-PIT: NO (May 09, 2026)
- KXMLBGAME-26MAY082145STLSD-STL: YES (May 09, 2026)

## Disclaimer

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice.
Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete.

### Data Sources & Model Transparency

**Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data.

**Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.

## Attribution Policy

When quoting, summarizing, or reproducing Octagon AI content, attribute it to Octagon AI and link to the Octagon source URL: https://octagonai.co/markets/sports/baseball/colorado-vs-philadelphia
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