# Cleveland vs St. Louis CLE vs STL (Apr 13) Updated: April 13, 2026 Category: Sports Tags: Baseball HTML: /markets/sports/baseball/cleveland-vs-st-louis/ ## Short Answer **Both the model and the market expect Cleveland to win the baseball game against St.** Louis, with no compelling evidence of mispricing. ## Key Claims (January 2026) **- - Cleveland's probable starter, Tanner Bibee, significantly outperforms St.** Louis's Mikolas. - Key Cleveland high-leverage relievers, Clase and Stephan, are fully available. - St. Louis's probable starter, Miles Mikolas, shows significant early-season struggles. - Availability of St. Louis's top high-leverage relievers remains undetermined. - The **market** price for Cleveland Guardians saw a 25.0pp spike. ### Why This Matters (GEO) - AI agents extract claims, not arguments. - Improves citation probability in summaries and answer cards. - Enables fact stitching across multiple sources. ## Executive Verdict **Key takeaway.** **Model**'s **56.4%** **probability** vs 53c **market** price implies a 1.9x payout multiple and a 3.4pp gap. ### Who Wins and Why | Outcome | Market | Model | Why | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cleveland | 53.0% | 56.4% | Model higher by 3.4pp | | St. Louis | 49.0% | 43.6% | Market higher by 5.4pp | ## Model vs Market | Outcome | Market Probability | Octagon Model Probability | | --- | --- | --- | | Cleveland | 53.0% | 56.4% | | St. Louis | 49.0% | 43.6% | - Expiration: April 16, 2026 ## Market Behavior & Price Dynamics The market has traded between 27.0% and 67.0% YES probability, with a current reading of 53.0%. Total volume: 31,145 contracts. ## Significant Price Movements #### 📈 April 11, 2026: 25.0pp spike Price increased from 27.0% to 52.0% **Outcome:** St. Louis **What happened:** No supporting research available for this anomaly. ## Contract Snapshot This market resolves to "YES" if Cleveland wins the professional baseball game against St. Louis, originally scheduled for April 13, 2026, at 7:45 PM EDT, and "NO" if they do not. The market closes after the game's outcome or by April 16, 2026, with sources including ESPN, Fox Sports, and MLB.com. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open until the rescheduled game finishes (within two days); if cancelled or delayed beyond two days, it resolves to a fair price. ## Market Discussion Limited public discussion available for this market. ## Market Data | Contract | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | Last Price | Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Cleveland | 51% | 53% | 53% | $35,349 | $34,924 | | St. Louis | 48% | 49% | 49% | $16,872 | $16,584 | ## What Are Bibee's and Mikolas's Early Season Pitching Records? Tanner Bibee 2026 Season Record | 2-0 (as of April 11, 2026) [[^]](https://www.bleachernation.com/picks/2026/04/11/st-louis-cardinals-vs-cleveland-guardians-series-april-13-15-odds-starting-pitchers-predictions/) | Tanner Bibee 2026 ERA | 2.08 (as of April 11, 2026) [[^]](https://www.bleachernation.com/picks/2026/04/11/st-louis-cardinals-vs-cleveland-guardians-series-april-13-15-odds-starting-pitchers-predictions/) | Miles Mikolas 2026 ERA | 6.75 (as of April 11, 2026) [[^]](https://www.bleachernation.com/picks/2026/04/11/st-louis-cardinals-vs-cleveland-guardians-series-april-13-15-odds-starting-pitchers-predictions/) | **The probable starting pitchers announced on April 11 significantly favored Cleveland** The probable starting pitchers announced on April 11 significantly favored Cleveland. As of April 11, 2026, Tanner Bibee was confirmed as the probable starter for the Cleveland Guardians and Miles Mikolas for the St. Louis Cardinals for their game on April 13 [[^]](https://www.bleachernation.com/picks/2026/04/11/st-louis-cardinals-vs-cleveland-guardians-series-april-13-15-odds-starting-pitchers-predictions/). This early-season news highlighted a notable performance disparity between the two pitchers. Bibee had begun the 2026 season strongly, achieving a 2-0 record with an impressive 2.08 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. In contrast, Mikolas was struggling, holding an 0-2 record with a considerably higher 6.75 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP [[^]](https://www.bleachernation.com/picks/2026/04/11/st-louis-cardinals-vs-cleveland-guardians-series-april-13-15-odds-starting-pitchers-predictions/). This favorable pitching matchup for Cleveland, based on their initial season performance, could justify a significant shift in a prediction **market**, such as a 20-point price spike, reflecting increased **confidence** in the Guardians' winning prospects [[^]](https://www.bleachernation.com/picks/2026/04/11/st-louis-cardinals-vs-cleveland-guardians-series-april-13-15-odds-starting-pitchers-predictions/). However, specific advanced pitching metrics were unavailable in the research. The provided research did not include detailed advanced metrics such as FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), xWOBA (Expected Weighted On-base Average), or specific pitch velocity for either Tanner Bibee or Miles Mikolas [[^]](https://www.bleachernation.com/picks/2026/04/11/st-louis-cardinals-vs-cleveland-guardians-series-april-13-15-odds-starting-pitchers-predictions/). Additionally, data regarding their individual performance from their last three starts was not available in the given sources [[^]](https://www.bleachernation.com/picks/2026/04/11/st-louis-cardinals-vs-cleveland-guardians-series-april-13-15-odds-starting-pitchers-predictions/). The findings are limited to their overall 2026 season records, ERA, and WHIP as of the news release date of April 11th, 2026 [[^]](https://www.bleachernation.com/picks/2026/04/11/st-louis-cardinals-vs-cleveland-guardians-series-april-13-15-odds-starting-pitchers-predictions/). ## What were the betting line shifts for Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals on April 11, 2026? CLE vs STL Scheduled Date | April 13, 2026 [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/cleveland-st-louis-odds-april-13-2026-2499852) | Guardians' Opponent Apr 11, 2026 | Atlanta Braves [[^]](https://www.rotowire.com/betting/mlb/game/braves-vs-guardians-odds-2026-04-11-2940215) | Cardinals' Opponent Apr 11, 2026 | Boston Red Sox [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb-game/boston-red-sox-st-louis-cardinals/286588) | **The Cleveland Guardians and St** The Cleveland Guardians and St. Louis Cardinals did not play on April 11, 2026. Research indicates that a game between these two teams was not played on the specified date. Consequently, no information is available regarding consensus moneyline and run line shifts for this particular matchup on April 11, 2026. On that date, the Cleveland Guardians played against the Atlanta Braves [[^]](https://www.rotowire.com/betting/mlb/game/braves-vs-guardians-odds-2026-04-11-2940215), while the St. Louis Cardinals faced the Boston Red Sox [[^]](https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb-game/boston-red-sox-st-louis-cardinals/286588). The Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals game is scheduled for April 13, 2026. This specific matchup is indeed scheduled, but for April 13, 2026 [[^]](https://www.oddsshark.com/mlb/cleveland-st-louis-odds-april-13-2026-2499852). Without a game between the Cleveland Guardians and the St. Louis Cardinals on April 11, 2026, it is impossible to analyze any shifts in moneyline and run line. Therefore, no attribution can be made to professional 'sharp' money or public betting influencing hypothetical line movements. Although sources explain how public betting and money percentages are tracked to identify betting trends [[^]](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/draftkings-sportsbook-betting-splits/), this methodology cannot be applied to a game that did not occur on the specified date. ## Are Guardians and Cardinals High-Leverage Relievers Available for April 13th? Emmanuel Clase Availability | Fully available (not pitched April 10 or April 12) [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401814879/guardians-braves) | Trevor Stephan Availability | Fully available (last pitched April 10, low pitch count) [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401814879/guardians-braves) | Cardinals Relievers Availability | Undetermined (no game data for April 10-12 provided) [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/2026-pitching.shtml) | **For the Cleveland Guardians, top relief pitchers show strong availability for April 13th** For the Cleveland Guardians, top relief pitchers show strong availability for April 13th. High-leverage relievers Emmanuel Clase and Trevor Stephan are fully available for April 13th, 2026 [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/guardians/news/guardians-bullpen-analysis-2026). Clase did not pitch in games on April 10th or April 12th. Stephan last appeared on April 10th, pitching with a low pitch count [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401814879/guardians-braves). These pitchers are considered key components of the Guardians' bullpen [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/guardians/news/guardians-bullpen-analysis-2026). James Karinchak is also likely available despite recent usage. Another high-leverage reliever for the Guardians, James Karinchak, is expected to be an option for April 13th. He pitched on April 10th, throwing 20 pitches, and again on April 12th, throwing 15 pitches [[^]](https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401814879/guardians-braves). Given these relatively low pitch counts and an off-day between appearances, Karinchak is projected to be ready for high-leverage situations. St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen availability remains unconfirmed due to missing data. The availability status of the St. Louis Cardinals' top high-leverage relief pitchers, including Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, and Andre Pallante, cannot be determined from the research provided [[^]](https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-analysis/68386/comparing-the-cardinals-will-the-bullpen-provide-any-relief-in-st-louis). The available sources lack specific game results, pitch counts, or appearance data for these Cardinals pitchers between April 10th and April 12th, 2026, making it impossible to assess their recent usage and readiness [[^]](https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/STL/2026-pitching.shtml). ## Who is the Home Plate Umpire for Guardians vs. Cardinals (April 2026)? Specific Umpire Assignment | Not listed for Cleveland vs. St. Louis game on April 13, 2026 [[^]](http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/gametracker/live/MLB_20260413_CLE@STL/) | Individual Umpire K/BB Rates | Data not available in provided sources [[^]](http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/gametracker/live/MLB_20260413_CLE@STL/) | Umpire Tendencies (Pitcher Profiles) | No information provided regarding specific pitcher profiles [[^]](http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/gametracker/live/MLB_20260413_CLE@STL/) | **The specific home plate umpire for the April 13, 2026 game between the Cleveland Guardians and St** The specific home plate umpire for the April 13, 2026 game between the Cleveland Guardians and St. Louis Cardinals remains unidentified. Despite reviewing multiple research materials, including MLB.com umpire biographies [[^]](https://www.mlb.com/official-information/umpires/bios) and other sites listing 2026 MLB umpire rosters [[^]](http://stevetheump.com/Proumpires.htm), none of the available sources detail daily or game-by-game umpire assignments for the specified date [[^]](http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/gametracker/live/MLB_20260413_CLE@STL/). Without an identified umpire, historical strikeout and walk rate tendencies cannot be determined. The research also lacked data on how an umpire's tendencies might vary when calling games for pitchers with specific profiles, as requested. The provided materials primarily focused on general game information, series previews, and umpire rosters, rather than advanced statistical analysis of umpire performance metrics or their impact on pitcher outcomes [[^]](http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/gametracker/live/MLB_20260413_CLE@STL/). ## What is the Busch Stadium wind forecast for April 13, 2026 and its impact? Gameday Wind Forecast | Not available for April 13, 2026 [[^]](https://www.covers.com/sport/mlb/weather) | Winds Blowing Out Effect | Increases home runs by approximately 10-20% at moderate speeds [[^]](https://rotogrinders.com/lessons/using-wind-speed-and-direction-to-predict-mlb-scoring-736733) | Winds Blowing In Effect | Decreases home runs by similar percentages [[^]](https://rotogrinders.com/lessons/using-wind-speed-and-direction-to-predict-mlb-scoring-736733) | **Future wind forecasts for April 13, 2026, are not available** Future wind forecasts for April 13, 2026, are not available. Specific and detailed gameday wind forecasts, including direction and speed, for Busch Stadium on April 13, 2026, are not currently detailed in the provided sources [[^]](https://www.covers.com/sport/mlb/weather). Although the game between the Cleveland Guardians and St. Louis Cardinals is scheduled for this date, precise wind conditions for this future event are not present in the documents [[^]](https://sportsdata.usatoday.com/baseball/mlb/summary/2942055). Wind patterns historically impact home run rates at Busch Stadium. At Busch Stadium, wind patterns have historically shown significant influence on home run rates. Winds blowing out towards the outfield, such as center or right field, tend to boost offensive production and increase home run frequency [[^]](https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-sabermetrics-analysis/2025/2/16/24366631/weather-applied-metrics-ballpark-village-where-the-wind-takes-you-st-louis-cardinals-home-runs). Conversely, winds blowing in from the outfield are known to suppress offensive output and reduce home run rates at the venue [[^]](https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/st-louis-cardinals-sabermetrics-analysis/2025/2/16/24366631/weather-applied-metrics-ballpark-village-where-the-wind-takes-you-st-louis-cardinals-home-runs). Studies suggest that outward winds can increase home runs by approximately 10-**20%** at moderate speeds, while inward winds can decrease them by similar percentages [[^]](https://rotogrinders.com/lessons/using-wind-speed-and-direction-to-predict-mlb-scoring-736733). ## What Could Change the Odds **Key takeaway.** Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Key Dates & Catalysts - **Expiration:** April 16, 2026 - **Closes:** April 16, 2026 ## Decision-Flipping Events - Catalyst analysis unavailable. ## Related Research Reports - [CB Malaga vs Bilbao Basket](/markets/sports/basketball/cb-malaga-vs-bilbao-basket/) - [Olimpia vs Luqueno](/markets/sports/soccer/olimpia-vs-luqueno/) - [Trinidense vs CD Recoleta](/markets/sports/soccer/trinidense-vs-cd-recoleta/) - [Feldbausch vs Kingsley](/markets/sports/tennis/feldbausch-vs-kingsley/) ## Historical Resolutions **Historical Resolutions:** 20 markets in this series **Outcomes:** 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO **Recent resolutions:** - KXMLBGAME-26APR121920CLEATL-CLE: NO (Apr 13, 2026) - KXMLBGAME-26APR121920CLEATL-ATL: YES (Apr 13, 2026) - KXMLBGAME-26APR121610HOUSEA-SEA: YES (Apr 12, 2026) - KXMLBGAME-26APR121610HOUSEA-HOU: NO (Apr 12, 2026) - KXMLBGAME-26APR121610TEXLAD-TEX: YES (Apr 12, 2026) ## Disclaimer This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or trading advice. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. We are not affiliated with Kalshi or any prediction market platform. Market data may be delayed or incomplete. ### Data Sources & Model Transparency **Data Sources:** Octagon Deep Research aggregates information from multiple sources including news, filings, and market data. **Freshness:** Analysis is generated periodically and may not reflect the latest developments. Verify critical information from primary sources.